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Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume
The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index declined by 163.27 points, or
1.31%, during the week, to close at 12,285.78. Market capitalization
decreased by 0.4% to reach QR676.8 billion (bn) as compared to
QR679.3bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 43 listed
companies, 22 companies ended the week higher, while 20 fell and 1
remained unchanged. Aamal Company (AHCS) was the best
performing stock for the week, with a gain of 33.8% on 6.5 million (mn)
shares traded; the stock is up 1.3% for 2014. On the other hand, Barwa
Real Estate Company (BRES) was the worst performing stock with a
decline of 11.4% on 14.1mn shares traded; the stock still finished up
40.6% for 2014.
The GCC markets posted a mixed bag of returns in 2014. Qatar
was the top performer, surging by 18.4% year-on-year (YoY). On the
other hand, Kuwait’s benchmark index (KWSEIDX) was down 13.4%
YoY.
BRES, Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) and Industries Qatar (IQCD) were
the biggest contributors to the weekly index decline. BRES
contributed 70.5 points to the index’s weekly decline of 163.3 points.
MARK contributed 66.7 points to the weekly index decline. IQCD was
the third biggest contributor, making up 49.8 points. On the other hand,
Ooredoo (ORDS), Milaha (QNNS) and QNB Group (QNBK) positively
contributed toward the QSE Index.
Trading value during the week decreased by 24.5% to reach
QR3.4bn vs. QR4.5bn in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led
the trading value during the week, accounting for 34.6% of the total
equity trading value. The Banks & Financial Services sector was the
second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for
30.6% of the total trading value. BRES was the top value traded stock
during the week with total traded value of QR631.4mn.
Trading volume decreased by 12.4% to reach 90.3mn shares vs.
103.1mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions fell by
9.7% to reach 38,926 transactions versus 43,097 transactions in the
prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting
for 48.8%, followed by the Banks & Financial Services sector, which
accounted for 18.3% of the overall trading volume. Ezdan Group
(ERES) was the top volume traded stock during the week with total
traded volume of 14.7mn shares.
Foreign institutions turned sellers during the week with net selling
of QR102.9mn vs. net buying QR266.6mn in the prior week. Qatari
institutions remained bullish with net buying of QR117.3mn vs. net
buying of QR62.7mn the week before. Foreign retail investors turned
bearish for the week with net selling of QR25.4mn vs. net buying of
QR49.1mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors turned bullish with
net buying of QR11.0mn vs. net selling of QR378.8mn the week
before. In 2014, foreign institutions bought (on a net basis) ~$2.5bn
worth of Qatari equities.
Market Indicators
Week ended
Dec. 31, 2014
Week ended
Dec. 25, 2014
Chg. %
Value Traded (QR mn) 3,430.3 4,542.5 (24.5)
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 676,791.6 679,329.9 (0.4)
Volume (mn) 90.3 103.1 (12.4)
Number of Transactions 38,926 43,097 (9.7)
Companies Traded 43 43 0.0
Market Breadth 20:21 42:1 –
Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Total Return 18,324.12 (1.3) (3.7) 23.6
All Share Index 3,151.00 (0.4) (3.1) 21.8
Banks/Financial Svcs. 3,203.99 (1.0) (2.2) 31.1
Industrials 4,039.63 0.5 (4.3) 15.4
Transportation 2,318.49 1.9 (1.2) 24.8
Real Estate 2,244.48 (3.5) (9.7) 14.9
Insurance 3,958.54 3.1 5.0 69.4
Telecoms 1,485.62 3.0 6.6 2.2
Consumer 6,907.44 (0.3) (3.9) 16.1
Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,101.39 (1.8) (4.0) 35.1
Market Indices
Weekly Index Performance
Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn)
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield
Qatar (QSE)* 12,285.78 (1.3) (3.7) 18.4 941.83 185,847.0 15.8 2.0 3.8
Dubai 3,774.00 (2.9) (11.9) 12.0 993.71 87,845.6 11.1 1.4 5.3
Abu Dhabi 4,528.93 (0.2) (3.1) 5.6 379.58 126,482.4 12.2 1.5 3.7
Saudi Arabia#
8,486.58 (3.0) (1.6) (0.6) 11,024.33 493,961.7 16.1 2.1 3.2
Kuwait 6,535.72 (0.6) (3.2) (13.4) 575.36 99,765.4 16.3 1.0 3.9
Oman 6,343.22 (1.4) (2.5) (7.2) 74.55 24,146.6 8.9 1.4 4.5
Bahrain 1,426.57 0.9 (0.1) 14.2 6.79 53,572.3 10.3 0.9 4.8
Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) (
#
Data as of December 30, 2014)
12,631.42
12,571.59
12,327.62
12,285.78
0
15,000,000
30,000,000
12,100
12,450
12,800
28-Dec 29-Dec 30-Dec 31-Dec
Volume QSE Index
0.9%
(0.2%) (0.6%)
(1.3%) (1.4%)
(2.9%) (3.0%)(4.0%)
(2.0%)
0.0%
2.0%
Bahrain
AbuDhabi
Kuwait
Qatar(QSE)*
Oman
Dubai
SaudiArabia
Page 2 of 5
News
Economic News
 MDPS: Qatar real economic growth estimated at 6% in
3Q2014 – According to the latest data released by the Ministry
of Development Planning & Statistics (MDPS), Qatar’s inflation-
adjusted (real) economy is estimated to have grown 6% YoY in
3Q2014, mainly powered by the non-hydrocarbon segment,
particularly construction and trade. However, the hydrocarbon
sector, witnessed a 2.8% YoY decline in 3Q2014. The sector
saw a 4.3% YoY decline in nominal growth on receding crude
oil production and some maintenance shutdowns in gas plants.
The decline in international price levels of crude oil and gases
in this quarter also led to a sharper decline in nominal gross
value addition of this sector. The non-hydrocarbon segment
witnessed a robust 12% YoY expansion in 3Q2014, driven by
electricity, construction, trading, and transport & communication
sectors. The MDPS report said the 7% jump in the country’s
population in 3Q2014 is another factor in contributing such a
growth. The manufacturing sector reported a 7.3% growth YoY
on the back of higher volumes of production of petrochemicals,
fertilizers, basic iron & steel products and other non-metallic
mineral products. The sector had witnessed a 9.0% rise in
nominal terms. Major public investments, especially in the
infrastructure-related projects continue to impact the growth in
the construction sector, which registered a robust 18.5% growth
in 3Q2014. The trade, hotel and restaurant sector witnessed a
13.7% growth in 3Q2014, spurred by high trading and
hospitality activities seen during Ramadan, a seasonal
phenomenon. The rising population is another factor of high
growth. The transport & communications segment grew 10.5%
and 12.6% in real and nominal terms, respectively, in 3Q2014.
The electricity and water group registered 10.7% and 9.2%
growth in real and nominal terms, respectively, in 3Q2014. The
finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector
showed a 13.7% and 19.9% growth in real and nominal terms
in the review period, while the government services witnessed
8.7% and 9.0% expansion in real and nominal terms. (Gulf-
Times.com
Market & Corporate News
 Al-Sharq: Qatar, Algeria to launch steel project in January
2015; in line with previously disclosed information by IQCD
– Al-Sharq has reported that the Algeria-based JV between
Qatar Steel and Algeria’s Sider will begin constructing their joint
steel and iron plant in January 2015 and production will begin
as per schedule in 2017. This plant is expected to produce 2mn
tons of steel and iron per year in the first phase and it would be
based in the industrial Bellara zone in the eastern Algerian
Mediterranean port of Jijel. This falls in line with previously
disclosed information by IQCD. According to IQCD’s most
recent trading statement, “The first phase of the project
envisages a direct reduction plant, steel melt shop and rolling
mill being built at an estimated equity contribution from Qatar
Steel of around QR0.6bn, and a project completion date of
1Q2018. Construction is expected to commence in the first half
of 2015.” We note Qatar Steel holds a 50% stake in a special
purpose vehicle, Qatar Steel International Company QPSC,
which in turn has a 49% share in Algerian Qatari Solb
Company. (Bloomberg, QNBFS Research)
 GISS to elect four board members from private sector –
Gulf International Services Company (GISS) has decided to
elect four of its seven board members from the private sector,
complying with the government’s efforts to promote the private
sector in Qatar. GISS held an extraordinary general assembly
meeting on December 28, 2014 and approved the amendments
to the company’s Articles of Association relating to the
reorganization of the board. The meeting was convened at the
request of Qatar Petroleum (QP), the special shareholder in the
company’s capital. As per the amendments in the Articles of
Association of GISS, QP will now be authorized to appoint only
three board members. Earlier, all the seven GISS board
members were appointed by QP. The new board members are
expected to be elected during the company’s annual general
meeting in March 2015 after the completion of all formalities.
(QSE, Peninsula Qatar)
 ABQK ratings affirmed on ‘Stable’ outlook – Capital
Intelligence (CI), the international credit rating agency, has
affirmed Ahli Bank’s (ABQK) long- and short-term foreign
currency ratings at A and A2, respectively. The agency also
maintained the Support Level of '1' in view of the extremely high
likelihood of support from the bank's strong government
shareholders. CI affirmed ABQK’s Financial Strength Rating
(FSR) at ‘A-‘, supported by the very sound and improved loan
asset quality, ongoing strong profitability at both the operating
and net levels, and the solid capital adequacy. The outlook for
all the ratings is ‘Stable’. CI also recognized ABQK’s greater
diversification of funding sources and satisfactory ratio of net
loans to stable funds, both benefiting from the successful
$200mn syndicated term debt raising during the year. (QSE)
 QGRI BoD seeks approval to raise foreign ownership –
Qatar General Insurance and Reinsurance Company’s (QGRI)
board of directors has agreed to allow foreign ownership of up
to 49% while seeking approval from the shareholders. The
board has also approved QR2bn financing offer from Masraf Al
Rayan and Barwa Bank along with $250-445mn financing offer
from Qatar Islamic Bank. (Bloomberg)
 Ooredoo Algeria reaches milestone of 3.5mn 3G customers
– Ooredoo Algeria has confirmed that it had reached the
milestone of 3.5mn 3G customers within the first year of the
launch of the service. Ooredoo’s 3G network has been ranked
the fastest network in North Africa in 2014 by the official
Network Quality Benchmark (NetQB). Ooredoo Algeria also
became one of the first operators in the world to achieve
network throughput of 63MB per second, and the first operator
in Africa to deploy 400G ultra-broadband mobile access
network in 2014. In January 2015, Ooredoo’s 3G network will
be extended to 32 provinces, covering 80% of Algeria’s
population. (Gulf-Times.com)
 QNBK wins two prestigious awards from Ethos Integrated
Solutions – QNB Group (QNBK) has won two prestigious
awards, “Best Customer Experience - Overall Bank in Qatar”,
and “Best Customer Experience - Overall Branch in Qatar” from
Ethos Integrated Solutions. The prestigious awards were
delivered during the 10th Annual Customer Experience
Benchmarking Index awards ceremony for retail banks and
exchange houses throughout the GCC, recently held at the Burj
Al Arab hotel in Dubai. (QNB Group Press Release)
 ABQK BoD will meet on January 19 to approve financial
results and discuss dividend distribution – Ahli Bank’s
(ABQK) board of directors will meet on January 19, 2015 to
approve the financial results and discuss the proposed dividend
distribution for the financial year ended December 31, 2014.
(QSE)
Page 3 of 5
Qatar Stock Exchange
Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
33.8%
18.7%
15.4%
10.0%
6.7%
0.0%
12.0%
24.0%
36.0%
Aamal Qatar General
Insurance &
Reinsurance
Islamic Holding
Group
Qatar & Oman
Investment
Qatar German
Co. for Medical
Devices
-11.4%
-5.8% -5.7%
-3.3% -3.3%
-12.0%
-8.0%
-4.0%
0.0%
Barwa Real
Estate
Dlala Holding MasrafAl Rayan Doha Insurance Medicare Group
631.4
279.4 277.1
241.9 237.1
0.0
220.0
440.0
660.0
Barwa Real
Estate
Gulf
International
Services
QNB Group Mazaya Qatar Islamic Holding
Group
14.7
14.1
12.1
6.7 6.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Ezdan Real
Estate
Barwa Real
Estate
Mazaya Qatar Vodafone Qatar Aamal
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Buy Sell
48.78% 48.46%
20.12% 16.70%
18.63% 19.37%
12.47% 15.47%
Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions
Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions
2,364
1,067
2,235
1,195
128
(128)
(500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Qatari
Non-Qatari
Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
Page 4 of 5
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
The QSE Index concluded the last week of 2014 losing 1.31% from the previous week. The Index was trading in a tight range between a high of 12,788.33
and a low of 12,189.99 during the week. Traders booked profits on lower volumes which is a positive sign. On the other hand, the RSI is in a downtrend and
the MACD is below the zero line. That been said, it is worthy to note that the Index is trading above its intact uptrend line formed since the first quarter of
2009. A move above 12,800 might push the Index to the 13,000 level and possibly beyond. We expect short-term volatility to persist with 12,200 being a key
level to watch. However, as noted previously the long-term uptrend bias still remains intact.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates
between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if
the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the
convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the
MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between
the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day
candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and
based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each
other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The
Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is
regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of
QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or
financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual
circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice
before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently
verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information
it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to
the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to
amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even
contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 5 of 5
Source: Bloomberg

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Weekly market report

  • 1. Page 1 of 5 Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index declined by 163.27 points, or 1.31%, during the week, to close at 12,285.78. Market capitalization decreased by 0.4% to reach QR676.8 billion (bn) as compared to QR679.3bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 43 listed companies, 22 companies ended the week higher, while 20 fell and 1 remained unchanged. Aamal Company (AHCS) was the best performing stock for the week, with a gain of 33.8% on 6.5 million (mn) shares traded; the stock is up 1.3% for 2014. On the other hand, Barwa Real Estate Company (BRES) was the worst performing stock with a decline of 11.4% on 14.1mn shares traded; the stock still finished up 40.6% for 2014. The GCC markets posted a mixed bag of returns in 2014. Qatar was the top performer, surging by 18.4% year-on-year (YoY). On the other hand, Kuwait’s benchmark index (KWSEIDX) was down 13.4% YoY. BRES, Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) and Industries Qatar (IQCD) were the biggest contributors to the weekly index decline. BRES contributed 70.5 points to the index’s weekly decline of 163.3 points. MARK contributed 66.7 points to the weekly index decline. IQCD was the third biggest contributor, making up 49.8 points. On the other hand, Ooredoo (ORDS), Milaha (QNNS) and QNB Group (QNBK) positively contributed toward the QSE Index. Trading value during the week decreased by 24.5% to reach QR3.4bn vs. QR4.5bn in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 34.6% of the total equity trading value. The Banks & Financial Services sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for 30.6% of the total trading value. BRES was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR631.4mn. Trading volume decreased by 12.4% to reach 90.3mn shares vs. 103.1mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions fell by 9.7% to reach 38,926 transactions versus 43,097 transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting for 48.8%, followed by the Banks & Financial Services sector, which accounted for 18.3% of the overall trading volume. Ezdan Group (ERES) was the top volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of 14.7mn shares. Foreign institutions turned sellers during the week with net selling of QR102.9mn vs. net buying QR266.6mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bullish with net buying of QR117.3mn vs. net buying of QR62.7mn the week before. Foreign retail investors turned bearish for the week with net selling of QR25.4mn vs. net buying of QR49.1mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors turned bullish with net buying of QR11.0mn vs. net selling of QR378.8mn the week before. In 2014, foreign institutions bought (on a net basis) ~$2.5bn worth of Qatari equities. Market Indicators Week ended Dec. 31, 2014 Week ended Dec. 25, 2014 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 3,430.3 4,542.5 (24.5) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 676,791.6 679,329.9 (0.4) Volume (mn) 90.3 103.1 (12.4) Number of Transactions 38,926 43,097 (9.7) Companies Traded 43 43 0.0 Market Breadth 20:21 42:1 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 18,324.12 (1.3) (3.7) 23.6 All Share Index 3,151.00 (0.4) (3.1) 21.8 Banks/Financial Svcs. 3,203.99 (1.0) (2.2) 31.1 Industrials 4,039.63 0.5 (4.3) 15.4 Transportation 2,318.49 1.9 (1.2) 24.8 Real Estate 2,244.48 (3.5) (9.7) 14.9 Insurance 3,958.54 3.1 5.0 69.4 Telecoms 1,485.62 3.0 6.6 2.2 Consumer 6,907.44 (0.3) (3.9) 16.1 Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,101.39 (1.8) (4.0) 35.1 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QSE)* 12,285.78 (1.3) (3.7) 18.4 941.83 185,847.0 15.8 2.0 3.8 Dubai 3,774.00 (2.9) (11.9) 12.0 993.71 87,845.6 11.1 1.4 5.3 Abu Dhabi 4,528.93 (0.2) (3.1) 5.6 379.58 126,482.4 12.2 1.5 3.7 Saudi Arabia# 8,486.58 (3.0) (1.6) (0.6) 11,024.33 493,961.7 16.1 2.1 3.2 Kuwait 6,535.72 (0.6) (3.2) (13.4) 575.36 99,765.4 16.3 1.0 3.9 Oman 6,343.22 (1.4) (2.5) (7.2) 74.55 24,146.6 8.9 1.4 4.5 Bahrain 1,426.57 0.9 (0.1) 14.2 6.79 53,572.3 10.3 0.9 4.8 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( # Data as of December 30, 2014) 12,631.42 12,571.59 12,327.62 12,285.78 0 15,000,000 30,000,000 12,100 12,450 12,800 28-Dec 29-Dec 30-Dec 31-Dec Volume QSE Index 0.9% (0.2%) (0.6%) (1.3%) (1.4%) (2.9%) (3.0%)(4.0%) (2.0%) 0.0% 2.0% Bahrain AbuDhabi Kuwait Qatar(QSE)* Oman Dubai SaudiArabia
  • 2. Page 2 of 5 News Economic News  MDPS: Qatar real economic growth estimated at 6% in 3Q2014 – According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics (MDPS), Qatar’s inflation- adjusted (real) economy is estimated to have grown 6% YoY in 3Q2014, mainly powered by the non-hydrocarbon segment, particularly construction and trade. However, the hydrocarbon sector, witnessed a 2.8% YoY decline in 3Q2014. The sector saw a 4.3% YoY decline in nominal growth on receding crude oil production and some maintenance shutdowns in gas plants. The decline in international price levels of crude oil and gases in this quarter also led to a sharper decline in nominal gross value addition of this sector. The non-hydrocarbon segment witnessed a robust 12% YoY expansion in 3Q2014, driven by electricity, construction, trading, and transport & communication sectors. The MDPS report said the 7% jump in the country’s population in 3Q2014 is another factor in contributing such a growth. The manufacturing sector reported a 7.3% growth YoY on the back of higher volumes of production of petrochemicals, fertilizers, basic iron & steel products and other non-metallic mineral products. The sector had witnessed a 9.0% rise in nominal terms. Major public investments, especially in the infrastructure-related projects continue to impact the growth in the construction sector, which registered a robust 18.5% growth in 3Q2014. The trade, hotel and restaurant sector witnessed a 13.7% growth in 3Q2014, spurred by high trading and hospitality activities seen during Ramadan, a seasonal phenomenon. The rising population is another factor of high growth. The transport & communications segment grew 10.5% and 12.6% in real and nominal terms, respectively, in 3Q2014. The electricity and water group registered 10.7% and 9.2% growth in real and nominal terms, respectively, in 3Q2014. The finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector showed a 13.7% and 19.9% growth in real and nominal terms in the review period, while the government services witnessed 8.7% and 9.0% expansion in real and nominal terms. (Gulf- Times.com Market & Corporate News  Al-Sharq: Qatar, Algeria to launch steel project in January 2015; in line with previously disclosed information by IQCD – Al-Sharq has reported that the Algeria-based JV between Qatar Steel and Algeria’s Sider will begin constructing their joint steel and iron plant in January 2015 and production will begin as per schedule in 2017. This plant is expected to produce 2mn tons of steel and iron per year in the first phase and it would be based in the industrial Bellara zone in the eastern Algerian Mediterranean port of Jijel. This falls in line with previously disclosed information by IQCD. According to IQCD’s most recent trading statement, “The first phase of the project envisages a direct reduction plant, steel melt shop and rolling mill being built at an estimated equity contribution from Qatar Steel of around QR0.6bn, and a project completion date of 1Q2018. Construction is expected to commence in the first half of 2015.” We note Qatar Steel holds a 50% stake in a special purpose vehicle, Qatar Steel International Company QPSC, which in turn has a 49% share in Algerian Qatari Solb Company. (Bloomberg, QNBFS Research)  GISS to elect four board members from private sector – Gulf International Services Company (GISS) has decided to elect four of its seven board members from the private sector, complying with the government’s efforts to promote the private sector in Qatar. GISS held an extraordinary general assembly meeting on December 28, 2014 and approved the amendments to the company’s Articles of Association relating to the reorganization of the board. The meeting was convened at the request of Qatar Petroleum (QP), the special shareholder in the company’s capital. As per the amendments in the Articles of Association of GISS, QP will now be authorized to appoint only three board members. Earlier, all the seven GISS board members were appointed by QP. The new board members are expected to be elected during the company’s annual general meeting in March 2015 after the completion of all formalities. (QSE, Peninsula Qatar)  ABQK ratings affirmed on ‘Stable’ outlook – Capital Intelligence (CI), the international credit rating agency, has affirmed Ahli Bank’s (ABQK) long- and short-term foreign currency ratings at A and A2, respectively. The agency also maintained the Support Level of '1' in view of the extremely high likelihood of support from the bank's strong government shareholders. CI affirmed ABQK’s Financial Strength Rating (FSR) at ‘A-‘, supported by the very sound and improved loan asset quality, ongoing strong profitability at both the operating and net levels, and the solid capital adequacy. The outlook for all the ratings is ‘Stable’. CI also recognized ABQK’s greater diversification of funding sources and satisfactory ratio of net loans to stable funds, both benefiting from the successful $200mn syndicated term debt raising during the year. (QSE)  QGRI BoD seeks approval to raise foreign ownership – Qatar General Insurance and Reinsurance Company’s (QGRI) board of directors has agreed to allow foreign ownership of up to 49% while seeking approval from the shareholders. The board has also approved QR2bn financing offer from Masraf Al Rayan and Barwa Bank along with $250-445mn financing offer from Qatar Islamic Bank. (Bloomberg)  Ooredoo Algeria reaches milestone of 3.5mn 3G customers – Ooredoo Algeria has confirmed that it had reached the milestone of 3.5mn 3G customers within the first year of the launch of the service. Ooredoo’s 3G network has been ranked the fastest network in North Africa in 2014 by the official Network Quality Benchmark (NetQB). Ooredoo Algeria also became one of the first operators in the world to achieve network throughput of 63MB per second, and the first operator in Africa to deploy 400G ultra-broadband mobile access network in 2014. In January 2015, Ooredoo’s 3G network will be extended to 32 provinces, covering 80% of Algeria’s population. (Gulf-Times.com)  QNBK wins two prestigious awards from Ethos Integrated Solutions – QNB Group (QNBK) has won two prestigious awards, “Best Customer Experience - Overall Bank in Qatar”, and “Best Customer Experience - Overall Branch in Qatar” from Ethos Integrated Solutions. The prestigious awards were delivered during the 10th Annual Customer Experience Benchmarking Index awards ceremony for retail banks and exchange houses throughout the GCC, recently held at the Burj Al Arab hotel in Dubai. (QNB Group Press Release)  ABQK BoD will meet on January 19 to approve financial results and discuss dividend distribution – Ahli Bank’s (ABQK) board of directors will meet on January 19, 2015 to approve the financial results and discuss the proposed dividend distribution for the financial year ended December 31, 2014. (QSE)
  • 3. Page 3 of 5 Qatar Stock Exchange Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) 33.8% 18.7% 15.4% 10.0% 6.7% 0.0% 12.0% 24.0% 36.0% Aamal Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Islamic Holding Group Qatar & Oman Investment Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices -11.4% -5.8% -5.7% -3.3% -3.3% -12.0% -8.0% -4.0% 0.0% Barwa Real Estate Dlala Holding MasrafAl Rayan Doha Insurance Medicare Group 631.4 279.4 277.1 241.9 237.1 0.0 220.0 440.0 660.0 Barwa Real Estate Gulf International Services QNB Group Mazaya Qatar Islamic Holding Group 14.7 14.1 12.1 6.7 6.5 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Ezdan Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Mazaya Qatar Vodafone Qatar Aamal 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 48.78% 48.46% 20.12% 16.70% 18.63% 19.37% 12.47% 15.47% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 2,364 1,067 2,235 1,195 128 (128) (500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
  • 4. Page 4 of 5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QSE Index concluded the last week of 2014 losing 1.31% from the previous week. The Index was trading in a tight range between a high of 12,788.33 and a low of 12,189.99 during the week. Traders booked profits on lower volumes which is a positive sign. On the other hand, the RSI is in a downtrend and the MACD is below the zero line. That been said, it is worthy to note that the Index is trading above its intact uptrend line formed since the first quarter of 2009. A move above 12,800 might push the Index to the 13,000 level and possibly beyond. We expect short-term volatility to persist with 12,200 being a key level to watch. However, as noted previously the long-term uptrend bias still remains intact. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
  • 5. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5 Source: Bloomberg