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Water Demand Forecasting
Audit
City Council Meeting
December 8, 2016
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
30.0
32.0
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
ProductionCapacity
Population
Population Capacity
Background
Population and Capacity
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
Price(dollars)
Nominal
Real
Effects of Inflation
PriceConservation
Factors Effecting Water Demand
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
PeakDayDemand
AnnualDemand
Annual Usage Peak Day
Long-Term Growth
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
MonthlyDemand
PUMP MAX PUMP MIN PUMP
Seasonal Variability
Weather/ClimatePopulation
≈ 15
Years
Forecasting Type
Horizon Application Developer Methodology
Periodic
Evaluation
Update
Period
Error
Percentage
Very-Short-Term
(Hrs, Days, Wks)
Optimizing and managing
system operations
Water
Services
Short-Term
(Yrs, 1-2 Yrs)
Budgeting and revenue
forecasting, program
evaluation
Fiscal
Services
Medium-Term
(7-10 Yrs)
Sizing, staging treatment
and distribution system
improvements,
investments, setting
water rates
Outside
Consultants
Long-Term
(10-50 Yrs)
Sizing system capacity
and raw water supply
Water
Services
Outside
Consultants
15.14%
to 23.41%
Every 5
Years
Units of
Interest
Sectoral
Per Capita
Professional
Judgement
Time Series
Time Series
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Daily
Annually
Annually
-0.22%
NA
-2.21%
-2.27%
Water Demand Forecast Evaluation
Adequacy Effectiveness Accuracy
≈ 15
Years
Q & A
Questions?
Water Demand Forecast Evaluation
Forecasting Type Adequacy Effectiveness Accuracy
Horizon Application Developer Methodology
Periodic
Evaluation
Update
Period
Error
Percentage
Very-Short-Term
(Hrs, Days, Wks)
Optimizing and managing
system operations
Water
Services
Professional
Judgement
Yes Daily -0.22%
Short-Term
(Yrs, 1-2 Yrs)
Budgeting and revenue
forecasting, program
evaluation
Fiscal
Services
Time Series Yes Annually -2.27%
Medium-Term
(7-10 Yrs)
Sizing, staging treatment
and distribution system
improvements,
investments, setting
water rates
Outside
Consultants
Sectoral
Per Capita
No
≈ 15
Years
NA
Long-Term
(10-50 Yrs)
Sizing system capacity
and raw water supply
Water
Services
Time Series Yes Annually -2.21%
Outside
Consultants
Units of
Interest
Yes
Every 5
Years
15.14%
to 23.41%
20
24
28
32
36
40
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
MillionsofGallons
HDR - Peak Day Production Capactiy
Actual Demand FNI - Peak Day
20
24
28
32
36
40
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
MillionsofGallons
Growth Rate Projection Production Capactiy
Linear Trend Projection Actual Demand
Peak Day Forecast Comparison

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  • 1. Water Demand Forecasting Audit City Council Meeting December 8, 2016
  • 3. 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70 Price(dollars) Nominal Real Effects of Inflation PriceConservation Factors Effecting Water Demand 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 PeakDayDemand AnnualDemand Annual Usage Peak Day Long-Term Growth 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 MonthlyDemand PUMP MAX PUMP MIN PUMP Seasonal Variability Weather/ClimatePopulation
  • 4. ≈ 15 Years Forecasting Type Horizon Application Developer Methodology Periodic Evaluation Update Period Error Percentage Very-Short-Term (Hrs, Days, Wks) Optimizing and managing system operations Water Services Short-Term (Yrs, 1-2 Yrs) Budgeting and revenue forecasting, program evaluation Fiscal Services Medium-Term (7-10 Yrs) Sizing, staging treatment and distribution system improvements, investments, setting water rates Outside Consultants Long-Term (10-50 Yrs) Sizing system capacity and raw water supply Water Services Outside Consultants 15.14% to 23.41% Every 5 Years Units of Interest Sectoral Per Capita Professional Judgement Time Series Time Series Yes Yes Yes No No Daily Annually Annually -0.22% NA -2.21% -2.27% Water Demand Forecast Evaluation Adequacy Effectiveness Accuracy ≈ 15 Years
  • 6. Water Demand Forecast Evaluation Forecasting Type Adequacy Effectiveness Accuracy Horizon Application Developer Methodology Periodic Evaluation Update Period Error Percentage Very-Short-Term (Hrs, Days, Wks) Optimizing and managing system operations Water Services Professional Judgement Yes Daily -0.22% Short-Term (Yrs, 1-2 Yrs) Budgeting and revenue forecasting, program evaluation Fiscal Services Time Series Yes Annually -2.27% Medium-Term (7-10 Yrs) Sizing, staging treatment and distribution system improvements, investments, setting water rates Outside Consultants Sectoral Per Capita No ≈ 15 Years NA Long-Term (10-50 Yrs) Sizing system capacity and raw water supply Water Services Time Series Yes Annually -2.21% Outside Consultants Units of Interest Yes Every 5 Years 15.14% to 23.41%
  • 7. 20 24 28 32 36 40 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 MillionsofGallons HDR - Peak Day Production Capactiy Actual Demand FNI - Peak Day 20 24 28 32 36 40 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 MillionsofGallons Growth Rate Projection Production Capactiy Linear Trend Projection Actual Demand Peak Day Forecast Comparison