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São Paulo, 07 de março de 2012Abril 2015
5th Utilities Day - Itau BBA
Wilson Ferreira Jr
CEO
2
Agenda
2
1
Regulatory Scenario
3 2014 Results
Hydrological Scenario
2
Agenda
3
1
3
Regulatory Scenario
2014 Results
Hydrological Scenario
20.6
23.2
30.1
35.6
50.1
40.0
75.7
30.6
37.8
42.642.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2002
2012
2013
2014
2015/ONS
forecast
Reservoir Levels
NIPS Reservoir Levels | %
Apr 07 (atual):
32.2%
22.4
4
Natural Inflow Energy (ENA)
Natural Inflow Energy (ENA) | SE/CW | GW average
ENA in 2014 and 2015 | % LTA
2014 Jan Feb Mar Apr¹
SE/CW 68% 39% 59% 78% 88%
South 144% 215% 140% 115% 115%
NIPS 82% 54% 61% 73% 86%
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
ENA SE/CW LTA
5 1) ONS Forecast for April (RV1).
Rainfall | January to March 2015
Source: ONS
Precipitation Anomalies (deviations from the average)
ENA in January-15 | SE/CW | % LTA ENA in February-15 | SE/CW | % LTA ENA in March-15 | SE/CW | % LTA
59%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
77%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
6
Jan 01 and 31. 2015 | mm Feb 01 and 28. 2015 | mm Mar 01 and 31. 2015 | mm
39%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
“Steady load” scenario (~2014) represents a deviation
of -3.0% (or -2.0 GWm) if compared to ONS
forecast (PEN 2015)
+2.7% -2.8% -4.4% -4.5% -5.0% -4.5% -3.9% -3.0% -1.8% -2.2% -1.4%
Deviation:
ONS (PEN 2015)
x “Steady Load”
2015 Outlook
 2015 NIPS Load GWavg %
2014 65.1
ONS (PEN 2015) 67.3 3.3%
“Steady Load” 65.3 0.2%
67.8
69.9 69.9
67.6
65.8
65.0 65.1
66.5
67.1
67.9 67.7
67.2
65.0
63.4
69.6
67.5
66.7
64.6
62.8
61.8 62.1
63.9
65.0
66.7
66.3 66.3
69.6
68.1
67.0
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
[GWavg]
ONS (PEN 2015) ONS (PMO apr/15) Steady load Real/Est ONS
-4.0%
7
35.6%
20.6%
23.2%
30.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15
"Steady load" scenario Actual/Estim. ONS Minimum (ONS)
15.0%
2015 Outlook | Scenarios for reservoir levels¹
Deterioration of the economic scenario and tariff hikes may naturally reduce consumption
Historical Average
(1997-2014): 42.4%
Historical Average
(1997-2014): 74.7%ENA April:
86%
Wet season Período secoDry season
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
105%
115%
89%
90%
104%
136%
92%
118%
89%
107%
97%
NIPS
104%
ENA needed
(Apr-Nov)
84%
Probability
Lower ENA²
20%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
113%
105%
102%
92%
107%
135%
96%
111%
102%
110%
80%
SE/CW
105%
 ENA for the dry Season3 – 2004 to 2014 | % LTA
8 1) Considers the generation of TPP Uruguaiana since Feb-2015. 2) Probability considers the historical series. 3) May to November of each year.
Entry into operation of new installed capacity
More clearance for energy balance in the coming years
9
Entry into operation of new installed
capacity in 2015 and 2016
7.6
8.4
9.2
12.0
13.8
72.5
75.5
78.7
83.7
87.8
65.0
67.1
69.5
71.7
74.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Excess Supply Demand
Assured Energy (MW average)
Plants 2015 2016
Jirau 1,278 366
Santo Antonio 611 120
Teles Pires 233 698
Santo Antonio do Jari 211 0
Ferreira Gomes 140 0
Other HPPs 64 177
Other sources 564 1,051
Reserve energy 424 571
Total 3,525 2,983
 NIPS Energy balance – Mar-15 | GW average
2
Agenda
10
1
3
Regulatory Scenario
2014 Results
Hydrological Scenario
Recent advances in the sector
ETR and Tariff Flags
11
Extraordinary Tariff Review (ETR)
(costs already incurred and/or defined)
 Repositioning of items with greater distance from the
tariff coverage:
 CDE quota: increase of R $ 1.7 billion in 2014 to US
$ 22.6 billion in 2015
 Cost of Power Purchase:
 Itaipu: +46% for the distributors S / SE / CW ¹
 18th Adjustment Auction: High purchase cost (R$
387.07/MWh)
 Availability agreements in green flag
"Tariff Flags"
(actual costs)
 Considers costs of thermal generation and exposure
to PLD (hydrological risk, ESS and involuntary
exposure)
 Implementation rules:
 Green flag: CVU < R$ 200.00/MWh
(no additional)
 Yellow Flag: 200.00 R$/MWh ≤ CVU< R$
388.48/MWh (increase of R$ 25/MWh)
 Red flag: CVU > R$388.48/MWh (increase of
R$ 55/MWh)
1) Tariff considers exchange rate of R$2.80/US$
ACR Account Loans
 3rd tranche:
 R$ 3.4 billion
 54 months
 CDI + 3.15%
 Lengthening of previous debts
 1st tranche: from CDI +
1,9% to CDI + 2,525%
 2nd tranche: from CDI +
2,35% to CDI + 2,9%
 Impact of ETR and Tariff Flags in Brazil | in %
Tariff before ETR
and Flags
Extraordinary Tariff
Review (ETR)
Tariff
Flags
17.0 bi
Thermal and
exposure to PLD
15.6%
6.2 bi
Energy
Purchase
5.7%
19.3 bi
CDE
Quota
17.7%
+39.0%
Tariff after ETR
and Flags
A point to keep in mind
GSF calculation needs improvement
12
 Lowering of ceiling PLD
from R$ 823/MWh to R$ 388/MWh
Physical
Guarantee
Actual
generation
100
83
Characterization of the financial impact of GSF for hydroelectric generators1 | MWaverage
-16.8
MWa
Amount of
energy to be
acquired
Valuation of
GSF at market
price
PLD
Financial impact on
HPPs
What should be corrected in the GSF calculation?
 Impact from generation of Reserve Energy:
should be valued at the cost of such generation
(instead of PLD)
 Impact of Out of Merit Dispatch: should be
removed from the cost of hydroelectric generator
 Adopt limitation due to structural changes in energy
matrix
1) Take into account a scenario of steady load in NIPS, if compared to 2014.
2
Agenda
13
1
3
Regulatory Scenario
2014 Results
Hydrological Scenario
2014 Results
14
6.0%
R$ 214 million
Net IncomeEBITDANet Income¹
IFRS
2014
R$ 886
million
2013
R$ 949
million
2014
R$ 3,761
million
2013
R$ 3,547
million
2014
R$ 16,361
million
2013
R$ 13,629
million
20.0%
R$ 2,731 million
-6.6%
R$ 63 million
-11.2%
R$ 146 million
2014
R$ 1,159
million
2013
R$ 1,304
million
2014
R$ 3,916
million
2013
R$3,908
million
2014
R$ 15,687
million
2013
R$ 13,681
million
14.7%
R$ 2,005 million
IFRS
0.2%
R$ 8 million
– amendment to
the discos’ concession agreements, including a clause to
ensure that the balance remaining of rights, not collected
through tariffs by the end of the concession, should be
indemnified
– Accounting of
sectorial financial assets and liabilities (old regulatory assets
and liabilities2)
Accounting figures
in 2014
EBITDA
Net Income
Proportionate Consolidation
of Generation + Sectorial
Financial Assets & Liabilities
+ Non recurring items
1) Excludes Revenue from Construction. 2) Differences between estimated power purchase costs and sector charges contemplated in tariffs and the actual costs
incurred in the period and that will be passed on to consumers on the date of the annual tariff readjustment of each distributor.
Allocation of the Results and Stock Bonus Proposal
15
 Stock bonus proposed is of 3.194510783%, in
the ratio of 0.03194510783 new share, of the same
type, for each share
 Total number of shares that make up the capital
stock would go from 962,274,260 to 993,014,215,
with the issuance of 30,739,955 shares, to be
distributed to shareholders under Article 169 of Law
6,404/76
 Subscribed and paid in capital stock would go
from R$ 4,793,424,356.62 to R$ 5,348,311,955.07
Constitution of statutory reserve -
strengthening of working capital in
the amount of R$ 555 million
Proposal of reversal of
statutory reserve -
strengthening of working
capital and increase of capital
through stock bonus
Interim dividend of R$ 422
million (already paid)
equivalent to 44.5% of net
income of the fiscal year
Capital Increase and Stock Bonus
CPFL Energia - Itaú inglês

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CPFL Energia - Itaú inglês

  • 1. São Paulo, 07 de março de 2012Abril 2015 5th Utilities Day - Itau BBA Wilson Ferreira Jr CEO
  • 2. 2 Agenda 2 1 Regulatory Scenario 3 2014 Results Hydrological Scenario
  • 4. 20.6 23.2 30.1 35.6 50.1 40.0 75.7 30.6 37.8 42.642.9 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2002 2012 2013 2014 2015/ONS forecast Reservoir Levels NIPS Reservoir Levels | % Apr 07 (atual): 32.2% 22.4 4
  • 5. Natural Inflow Energy (ENA) Natural Inflow Energy (ENA) | SE/CW | GW average ENA in 2014 and 2015 | % LTA 2014 Jan Feb Mar Apr¹ SE/CW 68% 39% 59% 78% 88% South 144% 215% 140% 115% 115% NIPS 82% 54% 61% 73% 86% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 ENA SE/CW LTA 5 1) ONS Forecast for April (RV1).
  • 6. Rainfall | January to March 2015 Source: ONS Precipitation Anomalies (deviations from the average) ENA in January-15 | SE/CW | % LTA ENA in February-15 | SE/CW | % LTA ENA in March-15 | SE/CW | % LTA 59% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 77% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 6 Jan 01 and 31. 2015 | mm Feb 01 and 28. 2015 | mm Mar 01 and 31. 2015 | mm 39% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
  • 7. “Steady load” scenario (~2014) represents a deviation of -3.0% (or -2.0 GWm) if compared to ONS forecast (PEN 2015) +2.7% -2.8% -4.4% -4.5% -5.0% -4.5% -3.9% -3.0% -1.8% -2.2% -1.4% Deviation: ONS (PEN 2015) x “Steady Load” 2015 Outlook  2015 NIPS Load GWavg % 2014 65.1 ONS (PEN 2015) 67.3 3.3% “Steady Load” 65.3 0.2% 67.8 69.9 69.9 67.6 65.8 65.0 65.1 66.5 67.1 67.9 67.7 67.2 65.0 63.4 69.6 67.5 66.7 64.6 62.8 61.8 62.1 63.9 65.0 66.7 66.3 66.3 69.6 68.1 67.0 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 [GWavg] ONS (PEN 2015) ONS (PMO apr/15) Steady load Real/Est ONS -4.0% 7
  • 8. 35.6% 20.6% 23.2% 30.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 "Steady load" scenario Actual/Estim. ONS Minimum (ONS) 15.0% 2015 Outlook | Scenarios for reservoir levels¹ Deterioration of the economic scenario and tariff hikes may naturally reduce consumption Historical Average (1997-2014): 42.4% Historical Average (1997-2014): 74.7%ENA April: 86% Wet season Período secoDry season 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 105% 115% 89% 90% 104% 136% 92% 118% 89% 107% 97% NIPS 104% ENA needed (Apr-Nov) 84% Probability Lower ENA² 20% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 113% 105% 102% 92% 107% 135% 96% 111% 102% 110% 80% SE/CW 105%  ENA for the dry Season3 – 2004 to 2014 | % LTA 8 1) Considers the generation of TPP Uruguaiana since Feb-2015. 2) Probability considers the historical series. 3) May to November of each year.
  • 9. Entry into operation of new installed capacity More clearance for energy balance in the coming years 9 Entry into operation of new installed capacity in 2015 and 2016 7.6 8.4 9.2 12.0 13.8 72.5 75.5 78.7 83.7 87.8 65.0 67.1 69.5 71.7 74.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Excess Supply Demand Assured Energy (MW average) Plants 2015 2016 Jirau 1,278 366 Santo Antonio 611 120 Teles Pires 233 698 Santo Antonio do Jari 211 0 Ferreira Gomes 140 0 Other HPPs 64 177 Other sources 564 1,051 Reserve energy 424 571 Total 3,525 2,983  NIPS Energy balance – Mar-15 | GW average
  • 11. Recent advances in the sector ETR and Tariff Flags 11 Extraordinary Tariff Review (ETR) (costs already incurred and/or defined)  Repositioning of items with greater distance from the tariff coverage:  CDE quota: increase of R $ 1.7 billion in 2014 to US $ 22.6 billion in 2015  Cost of Power Purchase:  Itaipu: +46% for the distributors S / SE / CW ¹  18th Adjustment Auction: High purchase cost (R$ 387.07/MWh)  Availability agreements in green flag "Tariff Flags" (actual costs)  Considers costs of thermal generation and exposure to PLD (hydrological risk, ESS and involuntary exposure)  Implementation rules:  Green flag: CVU < R$ 200.00/MWh (no additional)  Yellow Flag: 200.00 R$/MWh ≤ CVU< R$ 388.48/MWh (increase of R$ 25/MWh)  Red flag: CVU > R$388.48/MWh (increase of R$ 55/MWh) 1) Tariff considers exchange rate of R$2.80/US$ ACR Account Loans  3rd tranche:  R$ 3.4 billion  54 months  CDI + 3.15%  Lengthening of previous debts  1st tranche: from CDI + 1,9% to CDI + 2,525%  2nd tranche: from CDI + 2,35% to CDI + 2,9%  Impact of ETR and Tariff Flags in Brazil | in % Tariff before ETR and Flags Extraordinary Tariff Review (ETR) Tariff Flags 17.0 bi Thermal and exposure to PLD 15.6% 6.2 bi Energy Purchase 5.7% 19.3 bi CDE Quota 17.7% +39.0% Tariff after ETR and Flags
  • 12. A point to keep in mind GSF calculation needs improvement 12  Lowering of ceiling PLD from R$ 823/MWh to R$ 388/MWh Physical Guarantee Actual generation 100 83 Characterization of the financial impact of GSF for hydroelectric generators1 | MWaverage -16.8 MWa Amount of energy to be acquired Valuation of GSF at market price PLD Financial impact on HPPs What should be corrected in the GSF calculation?  Impact from generation of Reserve Energy: should be valued at the cost of such generation (instead of PLD)  Impact of Out of Merit Dispatch: should be removed from the cost of hydroelectric generator  Adopt limitation due to structural changes in energy matrix 1) Take into account a scenario of steady load in NIPS, if compared to 2014.
  • 14. 2014 Results 14 6.0% R$ 214 million Net IncomeEBITDANet Income¹ IFRS 2014 R$ 886 million 2013 R$ 949 million 2014 R$ 3,761 million 2013 R$ 3,547 million 2014 R$ 16,361 million 2013 R$ 13,629 million 20.0% R$ 2,731 million -6.6% R$ 63 million -11.2% R$ 146 million 2014 R$ 1,159 million 2013 R$ 1,304 million 2014 R$ 3,916 million 2013 R$3,908 million 2014 R$ 15,687 million 2013 R$ 13,681 million 14.7% R$ 2,005 million IFRS 0.2% R$ 8 million – amendment to the discos’ concession agreements, including a clause to ensure that the balance remaining of rights, not collected through tariffs by the end of the concession, should be indemnified – Accounting of sectorial financial assets and liabilities (old regulatory assets and liabilities2) Accounting figures in 2014 EBITDA Net Income Proportionate Consolidation of Generation + Sectorial Financial Assets & Liabilities + Non recurring items 1) Excludes Revenue from Construction. 2) Differences between estimated power purchase costs and sector charges contemplated in tariffs and the actual costs incurred in the period and that will be passed on to consumers on the date of the annual tariff readjustment of each distributor.
  • 15. Allocation of the Results and Stock Bonus Proposal 15  Stock bonus proposed is of 3.194510783%, in the ratio of 0.03194510783 new share, of the same type, for each share  Total number of shares that make up the capital stock would go from 962,274,260 to 993,014,215, with the issuance of 30,739,955 shares, to be distributed to shareholders under Article 169 of Law 6,404/76  Subscribed and paid in capital stock would go from R$ 4,793,424,356.62 to R$ 5,348,311,955.07 Constitution of statutory reserve - strengthening of working capital in the amount of R$ 555 million Proposal of reversal of statutory reserve - strengthening of working capital and increase of capital through stock bonus Interim dividend of R$ 422 million (already paid) equivalent to 44.5% of net income of the fiscal year Capital Increase and Stock Bonus