An overview of economic growth in US during q 3 of 2018. Overview includes data on: Economic Projections of the Federal Reserve Board, Employment Growth, Employment Growth by Industry, Employment Growth by Metropolitan Area, Consumer Price Index, Corporate Profits an Compensation of Employees, etc.
Headline inflation in Nigeria soared to an 11-year high of 16.5% in June, confounding analysts who expected a marginal decline. While a new foreign exchange regime began on June 20th, the dysfunctional market continued to be a key driver of inflation. Food prices rose due to increases in the prices of fish, meat, and other foods. Transportation costs also increased despite a slight fall in petrol prices, as diesel prices rose substantially. Looking ahead, monetary policymakers will have to balance controlling inflation with supporting economic growth as they determine interest rates.
The document discusses the following:
1) Indian markets performed well in May with the Nifty 50 index rising 3.4% and outperforming global markets. Mid and small cap indices fell but have outperformed so far in 2017.
2) Inflation continued to surprise on the downside, falling to 2.99% in April. Wholesale inflation also declined and core inflation is at a series low. Lower global commodity prices and a favorable base will likely keep inflation low.
3) The RBI's monetary policy was dovish in line with lower growth and inflation data. While rates were kept unchanged, the tone and forecasts signal potential future rate cuts to boost the economy.
Just when the Government thought they could celebrate, yet another political storm took over Brazil. Following the immediate impacts of what’s now being called the JBS shock, markets cautiously await the prospect of the reform agenda – especially on social security. Reforming Brazil’s social security system is urgent and will be crucial for the return of fiscal sustainability in the long run – and there is no shortcut. Nonetheless, the reform is also vital for Government’s short term fiscal sanity. And both short and long term will play a key role in setting market expectations, despite relevant macroeconomic improvements in the past 12 months.
Arbor Realty's U.S. Economic Overview for 2018 q4 with insights on U.S. employment growth, the consumer price index, average earnings and the homeownership rate.
The Brazilian government posted a primary budget surplus of 2.1% of GDP in the first quarter of 2014, below the result in the first quarter of 2013 of 2.8% of GDP. Central government expenditures grew 7.4% year-over-year in the first quarter, outpacing GDP growth, while tax revenues increased only modestly. The recurring primary surplus was just 0.9% of GDP, one of the lowest levels since the series began in 2002. Continued rapid spending growth and only moderate revenue growth pose risks to the government achieving its target primary surplus of 1.9% of GDP for the full year.
I want to share with you the latest edition of the Texas Family Office Association (“TFOA”) monthly economic update. The attached report includes a wealth of data and exhibits on the state of the USA economy and selected States as well as a 10-Year expected return forecast for all asset classes and this month’s economic release calendar for your ease of reference. I hope you’ll find the information useful…
Canadian CPI Inflation and Retail Sales
CPI: Total CPI rose by a robust 0.3% m/m in April, in line with market expectations. Gasoline prices (+6.8% m/m) and telephone fees charged by telecom providers (+4.1% m/m) rose sharply. Food prices in restaurants increased by 0.4% in April after surging by 2% during the first three months of 2018; restaurant owners in Ontario are still passing on the steep minimum wage hike to consumers.
An overview of economic growth in US during q 3 of 2018. Overview includes data on: Economic Projections of the Federal Reserve Board, Employment Growth, Employment Growth by Industry, Employment Growth by Metropolitan Area, Consumer Price Index, Corporate Profits an Compensation of Employees, etc.
Headline inflation in Nigeria soared to an 11-year high of 16.5% in June, confounding analysts who expected a marginal decline. While a new foreign exchange regime began on June 20th, the dysfunctional market continued to be a key driver of inflation. Food prices rose due to increases in the prices of fish, meat, and other foods. Transportation costs also increased despite a slight fall in petrol prices, as diesel prices rose substantially. Looking ahead, monetary policymakers will have to balance controlling inflation with supporting economic growth as they determine interest rates.
The document discusses the following:
1) Indian markets performed well in May with the Nifty 50 index rising 3.4% and outperforming global markets. Mid and small cap indices fell but have outperformed so far in 2017.
2) Inflation continued to surprise on the downside, falling to 2.99% in April. Wholesale inflation also declined and core inflation is at a series low. Lower global commodity prices and a favorable base will likely keep inflation low.
3) The RBI's monetary policy was dovish in line with lower growth and inflation data. While rates were kept unchanged, the tone and forecasts signal potential future rate cuts to boost the economy.
Just when the Government thought they could celebrate, yet another political storm took over Brazil. Following the immediate impacts of what’s now being called the JBS shock, markets cautiously await the prospect of the reform agenda – especially on social security. Reforming Brazil’s social security system is urgent and will be crucial for the return of fiscal sustainability in the long run – and there is no shortcut. Nonetheless, the reform is also vital for Government’s short term fiscal sanity. And both short and long term will play a key role in setting market expectations, despite relevant macroeconomic improvements in the past 12 months.
Arbor Realty's U.S. Economic Overview for 2018 q4 with insights on U.S. employment growth, the consumer price index, average earnings and the homeownership rate.
The Brazilian government posted a primary budget surplus of 2.1% of GDP in the first quarter of 2014, below the result in the first quarter of 2013 of 2.8% of GDP. Central government expenditures grew 7.4% year-over-year in the first quarter, outpacing GDP growth, while tax revenues increased only modestly. The recurring primary surplus was just 0.9% of GDP, one of the lowest levels since the series began in 2002. Continued rapid spending growth and only moderate revenue growth pose risks to the government achieving its target primary surplus of 1.9% of GDP for the full year.
I want to share with you the latest edition of the Texas Family Office Association (“TFOA”) monthly economic update. The attached report includes a wealth of data and exhibits on the state of the USA economy and selected States as well as a 10-Year expected return forecast for all asset classes and this month’s economic release calendar for your ease of reference. I hope you’ll find the information useful…
Canadian CPI Inflation and Retail Sales
CPI: Total CPI rose by a robust 0.3% m/m in April, in line with market expectations. Gasoline prices (+6.8% m/m) and telephone fees charged by telecom providers (+4.1% m/m) rose sharply. Food prices in restaurants increased by 0.4% in April after surging by 2% during the first three months of 2018; restaurant owners in Ontario are still passing on the steep minimum wage hike to consumers.
The document provides an economic overview and projections for Q1 2018. It summarizes the Federal Reserve's projections for GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates through 2020. It also reviews recent employment, wage growth, GDP, corporate profits, home prices, and other economic indicators. Overall, the outlook presented is for continued moderate economic expansion in the US.
Bizad 45 anniversary presentation may 2010 v2bizalum
The document discusses the Greek debt crisis and its potential impacts. It provides an overview of the state of various world economies, including positive signs in the US like rising GDP, manufacturing, and retail sales. Asian economies like China, Singapore, Japan, and Taiwan also reported strong GDP growth in Q1 2010. The document analyzes market perspectives and risks, compares to past crashes, and evaluates economic fundamentals to provide a final analysis.
Headline inflation in Nigeria spiked to a record high of 12.8% in March, exceeding the Central Bank of Nigeria's ceiling of 9%. This unprecedented rise in inflation confounded monetary policymakers and posed a major policy challenge. Food prices increased by 1.4% due to higher transportation and logistics costs, while core inflation rose 1.1% driven by imported inflation, electricity tariff hikes, and fuel shortages. The document predicts inflation will rise further in April but at a slower pace, and that Nigeria's exclusion from an emerging market index and the specter of interest rate hikes will continue undermining the stock market and investors.
Indonesia's economy grew at its fastest pace since 2008 in the first quarter of 2010, expanding 5.7% year-over-year driven by increased household spending, business investment, and exports. This exceeded economists' median growth forecast of 5.78% and reversed the previous quarter's contraction, showing Indonesia's economic recovery remains on track. Strong growth, stable inflation, and improved politics are expected to foster a better investment environment going forward.
I want to share with you the latest edition of the Texas Family Office Association (“TFOA”) monthly economic update. The attached report includes a wealth of data and exhibits on the state of the USA economy and selected States. I’ve pasted below 10-Year expected returns for all asset classes and this month’s economic release calendar for your ease of reference. I hope you’ll find this useful…
Mary Daly
President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
National Bureau of Economic Research Wage Dynamics in the 21st Century Conference Spring 2021
Latin American economies faced challenges last week. In Mexico, inflation rose above the central bank's target to its highest level in 18 months, which may lead to higher interest rates. Brazil reported weaker-than-expected economic growth and economists lowered forecasts for the next year as the country struggles to emerge from recession. Venezuela is facing a deepening political crisis as protests increased against President Maduro and most Venezuelans want him removed, despite the country having large oil reserves.
Headline inflation in Nigeria increased sharply to a record 13.7% in April 2016, continuing the trend of rising prices. Several factors contributed to higher inflation, including a 67.6% increase in petrol prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate that saw the naira depreciate to N355/$, and persistent power shortages. The core inflation index, which excludes volatile food prices, rose to 13.4% due to higher fuel and electricity costs. Food inflation also increased. Looking ahead, further rises in inflation are expected in the short term due to currency depreciation, fuel prices hikes, and reduced food supplies.
These slides were presented at the ASSA 2020 meeting by President Daly during a panel session titled “Navigating the Crosscurrents: The Outlook for the Global Economy” hosted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).
The document discusses the reliability of macroeconomic forecasts. While forecasts may perform reasonably on average, they often fail to predict significant changes or misses in the economy. Forecasts are most likely to fail at key times when accuracy is needed most. Early government economic data is also often estimated and revised over time as more information becomes available. Therefore, it is important not to rely too heavily on single forecasts or early economic reports, but to consider private data and take forecasts with caution given their inherent unreliability.
This document discusses how governments can overcome inflation through monetary and fiscal policies. It explains that monetary policy uses interest rates and open market operations to control the money supply. Through open market operations, the central bank sells securities to lower bank reserves and restrict lending. Reserve requirements can also tighten the money supply by requiring banks to hold more reserves. Fiscal policy involves increasing taxes or reducing government spending to decrease spending in the economy. These contractionary policies aim to slow economic growth and reduce inflation.
This document discusses several key economic indicators that affect commodity prices, including:
- Consumer confidence index, consumer price index, employment reports, GDP, and retail sales which measure economic activity and consumer spending.
- FOMC meetings and interest rate announcements which can impact inflation and currency valuations.
- Trade balance, current account, and durable goods orders which provide insights into international trade trends.
- Housing starts and industrial production which track business investment and manufacturing activity.
These economic indicators are closely watched globally as they can signal changes in commodity demand and supply.
Canada's real GDP growth edged up 0.1% in May compared to April, amounting to an annualized growth rate of 1.5%. While the goods producing sector increased 0.6%, the service sector declined 0.1% due to decreases in wholesale trade and real estate broker activity. Construction GDP also fell 1.6% in May, led by a 3.8% drop in residential construction. These results were below expectations and call into question forecasts for strong second quarter GDP growth of 3.0% annually, which would require an unprecedented 8.0% increase in June GDP. Slower growth may mean weaker inflation and a slower pace of raising interest rates than expected by the Bank of Canada.
The Federal Reserve projects real GDP growth of 2.7-3.0% in 2018, with unemployment falling to 3.6-3.7% and inflation rising but remaining near 2%. In Q2 2018, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.1% while unemployment declined slightly. Job growth was strong in professional services and manufacturing. Home prices continue rising nationally at over 6% annually according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.
The document provides an analysis of recent U.S. economic indicators and recommendations for Precision Castparts. It finds that key indicators point to slow growth in 2016 but prepare for a possible contraction in 2017. The ISM manufacturing index improved but remains neutral, and the Fed is expected to raise rates in June to curb inflation. Declines in consumer confidence and new home sales may lead to a self-fulfilling recession. It recommends Precision Castparts hedge risks through workforce training, process improvements, and inventory and expense management to gain an advantage in a potential late-cycle contraction.
Daily Economic Update: October 29, 2010NAR Research
The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in the third quarter, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth. Gains were seen in inventory investment, consumer spending, equipment investment, and government purchases, with the strongest growth in personal consumption expenditures. However, the economy remains below its historical 3% average growth rate and the unemployment rate is expected to remain high at around 10% as the recovery remains soft. Consumer sentiment fell recently but may improve in the next month's data as many consumers got their desired election results.
Nigeria. Surprise 2ppts rate hike to 14%; positive for NGNmagus67
The monetary policy committee in Nigeria voted to hike the monetary policy rate by 2 percentage points to 14%, surprising markets who expected no change. Inflation is high and rising in Nigeria, with negative real interest rates, so the committee prioritized price stability over economic growth. By raising rates, the central bank aims to support the recently liberalized foreign exchange policy and improve foreign inflows to boost liquidity. Further rate hikes are expected as inflation climbs into the early 20s by the fourth quarter of 2016.
The document provides an overview of the current economic conditions in the United States, risks to the economy, a one-year forecast, and a policy recommendation from the Federal Reserve. It finds that aggregate demand is strengthening, labor markets are improving but still show some slack, and inflation remains below target. The forecast predicts real GDP growth of 2.7%, unemployment falling to 4.7%, and both overall and core PCE inflation around 1.7-1.8%. The policy recommendation is to raise the target federal funds rate range to 0.25-0.5% while continuing other quantitative easing programs.
This report analyzes recent inflation data and forecasts inflation for Hungary over the next few years:
1. Inflation in Hungary was 2.5% in September, below most forecasts, due to a large drop in textbook prices. Underlying inflation indicators show little change.
2. The report forecasts inflation to remain below the central bank's 3% target through 2019. Lower fuel and food prices alongside government measures to reduce costs are expected to keep inflation modest.
3. Strong economic growth has not led to higher underlying inflation as expected, likely due to faster productivity growth and moderating wage growth. Inflation is projected to remain low, allowing the central bank to keep monetary policy loose.
Macro Strategy Review Summary Jan 2014-Aug 2015Jim Welsh
This document provides a summary of analysis from the author's Macro Strategy Review publications from 2014 to 2015. It discusses the author's approach of combining fundamental and technical analysis. As an example, in 2014 the author correctly predicted a rally in the US dollar based on signals from the euro currency and implications for emerging markets. The summary highlights several insights the author provided regarding the dollar, euro, commodities, and emerging markets. It positions the Macro Strategy Review as a valuable resource that helps navigate challenging markets by incorporating both fundamental and technical analysis.
The Economic Outlook for 2017 by Kevin LingsSTANLIB
South Africa is searching for higher economic growth in a global environment increasingly shaped by rising nationalism, higher levels of trade protection and a fall-off in the effectiveness of monetary policy.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
The document provides an economic overview and projections for Q1 2018. It summarizes the Federal Reserve's projections for GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates through 2020. It also reviews recent employment, wage growth, GDP, corporate profits, home prices, and other economic indicators. Overall, the outlook presented is for continued moderate economic expansion in the US.
Bizad 45 anniversary presentation may 2010 v2bizalum
The document discusses the Greek debt crisis and its potential impacts. It provides an overview of the state of various world economies, including positive signs in the US like rising GDP, manufacturing, and retail sales. Asian economies like China, Singapore, Japan, and Taiwan also reported strong GDP growth in Q1 2010. The document analyzes market perspectives and risks, compares to past crashes, and evaluates economic fundamentals to provide a final analysis.
Headline inflation in Nigeria spiked to a record high of 12.8% in March, exceeding the Central Bank of Nigeria's ceiling of 9%. This unprecedented rise in inflation confounded monetary policymakers and posed a major policy challenge. Food prices increased by 1.4% due to higher transportation and logistics costs, while core inflation rose 1.1% driven by imported inflation, electricity tariff hikes, and fuel shortages. The document predicts inflation will rise further in April but at a slower pace, and that Nigeria's exclusion from an emerging market index and the specter of interest rate hikes will continue undermining the stock market and investors.
Indonesia's economy grew at its fastest pace since 2008 in the first quarter of 2010, expanding 5.7% year-over-year driven by increased household spending, business investment, and exports. This exceeded economists' median growth forecast of 5.78% and reversed the previous quarter's contraction, showing Indonesia's economic recovery remains on track. Strong growth, stable inflation, and improved politics are expected to foster a better investment environment going forward.
I want to share with you the latest edition of the Texas Family Office Association (“TFOA”) monthly economic update. The attached report includes a wealth of data and exhibits on the state of the USA economy and selected States. I’ve pasted below 10-Year expected returns for all asset classes and this month’s economic release calendar for your ease of reference. I hope you’ll find this useful…
Mary Daly
President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
National Bureau of Economic Research Wage Dynamics in the 21st Century Conference Spring 2021
Latin American economies faced challenges last week. In Mexico, inflation rose above the central bank's target to its highest level in 18 months, which may lead to higher interest rates. Brazil reported weaker-than-expected economic growth and economists lowered forecasts for the next year as the country struggles to emerge from recession. Venezuela is facing a deepening political crisis as protests increased against President Maduro and most Venezuelans want him removed, despite the country having large oil reserves.
Headline inflation in Nigeria increased sharply to a record 13.7% in April 2016, continuing the trend of rising prices. Several factors contributed to higher inflation, including a 67.6% increase in petrol prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate that saw the naira depreciate to N355/$, and persistent power shortages. The core inflation index, which excludes volatile food prices, rose to 13.4% due to higher fuel and electricity costs. Food inflation also increased. Looking ahead, further rises in inflation are expected in the short term due to currency depreciation, fuel prices hikes, and reduced food supplies.
These slides were presented at the ASSA 2020 meeting by President Daly during a panel session titled “Navigating the Crosscurrents: The Outlook for the Global Economy” hosted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).
The document discusses the reliability of macroeconomic forecasts. While forecasts may perform reasonably on average, they often fail to predict significant changes or misses in the economy. Forecasts are most likely to fail at key times when accuracy is needed most. Early government economic data is also often estimated and revised over time as more information becomes available. Therefore, it is important not to rely too heavily on single forecasts or early economic reports, but to consider private data and take forecasts with caution given their inherent unreliability.
This document discusses how governments can overcome inflation through monetary and fiscal policies. It explains that monetary policy uses interest rates and open market operations to control the money supply. Through open market operations, the central bank sells securities to lower bank reserves and restrict lending. Reserve requirements can also tighten the money supply by requiring banks to hold more reserves. Fiscal policy involves increasing taxes or reducing government spending to decrease spending in the economy. These contractionary policies aim to slow economic growth and reduce inflation.
This document discusses several key economic indicators that affect commodity prices, including:
- Consumer confidence index, consumer price index, employment reports, GDP, and retail sales which measure economic activity and consumer spending.
- FOMC meetings and interest rate announcements which can impact inflation and currency valuations.
- Trade balance, current account, and durable goods orders which provide insights into international trade trends.
- Housing starts and industrial production which track business investment and manufacturing activity.
These economic indicators are closely watched globally as they can signal changes in commodity demand and supply.
Canada's real GDP growth edged up 0.1% in May compared to April, amounting to an annualized growth rate of 1.5%. While the goods producing sector increased 0.6%, the service sector declined 0.1% due to decreases in wholesale trade and real estate broker activity. Construction GDP also fell 1.6% in May, led by a 3.8% drop in residential construction. These results were below expectations and call into question forecasts for strong second quarter GDP growth of 3.0% annually, which would require an unprecedented 8.0% increase in June GDP. Slower growth may mean weaker inflation and a slower pace of raising interest rates than expected by the Bank of Canada.
The Federal Reserve projects real GDP growth of 2.7-3.0% in 2018, with unemployment falling to 3.6-3.7% and inflation rising but remaining near 2%. In Q2 2018, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.1% while unemployment declined slightly. Job growth was strong in professional services and manufacturing. Home prices continue rising nationally at over 6% annually according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.
The document provides an analysis of recent U.S. economic indicators and recommendations for Precision Castparts. It finds that key indicators point to slow growth in 2016 but prepare for a possible contraction in 2017. The ISM manufacturing index improved but remains neutral, and the Fed is expected to raise rates in June to curb inflation. Declines in consumer confidence and new home sales may lead to a self-fulfilling recession. It recommends Precision Castparts hedge risks through workforce training, process improvements, and inventory and expense management to gain an advantage in a potential late-cycle contraction.
Daily Economic Update: October 29, 2010NAR Research
The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in the third quarter, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth. Gains were seen in inventory investment, consumer spending, equipment investment, and government purchases, with the strongest growth in personal consumption expenditures. However, the economy remains below its historical 3% average growth rate and the unemployment rate is expected to remain high at around 10% as the recovery remains soft. Consumer sentiment fell recently but may improve in the next month's data as many consumers got their desired election results.
Nigeria. Surprise 2ppts rate hike to 14%; positive for NGNmagus67
The monetary policy committee in Nigeria voted to hike the monetary policy rate by 2 percentage points to 14%, surprising markets who expected no change. Inflation is high and rising in Nigeria, with negative real interest rates, so the committee prioritized price stability over economic growth. By raising rates, the central bank aims to support the recently liberalized foreign exchange policy and improve foreign inflows to boost liquidity. Further rate hikes are expected as inflation climbs into the early 20s by the fourth quarter of 2016.
The document provides an overview of the current economic conditions in the United States, risks to the economy, a one-year forecast, and a policy recommendation from the Federal Reserve. It finds that aggregate demand is strengthening, labor markets are improving but still show some slack, and inflation remains below target. The forecast predicts real GDP growth of 2.7%, unemployment falling to 4.7%, and both overall and core PCE inflation around 1.7-1.8%. The policy recommendation is to raise the target federal funds rate range to 0.25-0.5% while continuing other quantitative easing programs.
This report analyzes recent inflation data and forecasts inflation for Hungary over the next few years:
1. Inflation in Hungary was 2.5% in September, below most forecasts, due to a large drop in textbook prices. Underlying inflation indicators show little change.
2. The report forecasts inflation to remain below the central bank's 3% target through 2019. Lower fuel and food prices alongside government measures to reduce costs are expected to keep inflation modest.
3. Strong economic growth has not led to higher underlying inflation as expected, likely due to faster productivity growth and moderating wage growth. Inflation is projected to remain low, allowing the central bank to keep monetary policy loose.
Macro Strategy Review Summary Jan 2014-Aug 2015Jim Welsh
This document provides a summary of analysis from the author's Macro Strategy Review publications from 2014 to 2015. It discusses the author's approach of combining fundamental and technical analysis. As an example, in 2014 the author correctly predicted a rally in the US dollar based on signals from the euro currency and implications for emerging markets. The summary highlights several insights the author provided regarding the dollar, euro, commodities, and emerging markets. It positions the Macro Strategy Review as a valuable resource that helps navigate challenging markets by incorporating both fundamental and technical analysis.
The Economic Outlook for 2017 by Kevin LingsSTANLIB
South Africa is searching for higher economic growth in a global environment increasingly shaped by rising nationalism, higher levels of trade protection and a fall-off in the effectiveness of monetary policy.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
ICICI Prudential AMC - Market Outlook - October 2017iciciprumf
- Indian equity markets declined in September due to geopolitical tensions, higher crude prices, and weaker than expected GDP growth.
- Inflation rose in August driven by increases in food and fuel prices. The rupee also fell against the US dollar.
- Foreign institutional investors continued selling Indian equities while domestic mutual funds purchased shares.
- The document recommends dynamic asset allocation funds to benefit from market cycles and mentions specific pure equity and thematic funds for long-term investment.
The document summarizes a U.S. macroeconomic forecast by Cushman & Wakefield. It finds that:
1) The U.S. economy has remained resilient despite global headwinds like Brexit, with strong consumer spending and job growth powering continued expansion.
2) GDP growth is expected to be moderate at 1.6% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017, while employment growth will exceed 2.2 million new jobs in 2016 and 1.8 million in 2017.
3) Commercial real estate markets like office and industrial will continue tightening, with office rents growing 5.5% in 2016 and 4.8% in 2017 and industrial vacancy falling further before a modest rise in
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q1 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the Fed's recent activity and its intentions to raise benchmark interest rates three times in 2017. The report also focuses on how the new U.S. administration will impact domestic and global economies.
The document provides an overview of key economic indicators under President Trump such as jobs, wages, GDP growth, budget deficits, trade, and other measures. It notes that monthly job growth has been similar under Trump and Obama, while real wage growth has slowed and real GDP growth exceeded 4% in the second quarter of 2018 due to tax cuts and spending increases but is projected to decline. It also discusses the increased budget deficits and debt resulting from the Trump tax cuts.
- The US economic stimulus program provided benefits not only for the US economy but globally by increasing access to cheap capital. However, announcing the withdrawal of stimulus caused volatility in emerging markets as investors pulled funds.
- While unemployment and inflation targets have not been met, economic indicators are trending in a positive direction. Corporate cash reserves and spending are up as is household wealth, though the recovery is not yet secure enough to withdraw stimulus immediately.
- A gradual withdrawal of stimulus over 2-3 years beginning in 2014 by slowly reducing bond purchases and incremental interest rate increases is recommended to have a smooth effect on markets.
The document summarizes the current state of the US economy. It notes that while growth has been slower than expected, unemployment is falling and inflation is under control. Housing and corporate investment are improving. The government is on track to reduce the deficit through spending cuts and tax increases. The economic recovery does not yet appear secure enough to withdraw stimulus, so a gradual withdrawal beginning in 2014 is recommended once unemployment and inflation targets are met.
http://pwc.to/1cpYR81
En octobre, les décideurs de partout dans le monde se sont réunis à Washington DC pour faire le bilan des perspectives économiques mondiales. Pour la première fois depuis 2010, le pronostic d’une reprise soutenue pour les économies développées devrait être positif.
The report provides an overview of macroeconomic trends and outlooks for various regions and sectors. For the domestic economy, while facing some headwinds, growth is expected to continue in 2016 driven by strong consumer spending. In Europe, recovery is expected to continue but at a slow pace due to global uncertainties. China is undergoing an economic transition and growth is projected to slow, posing risks globally. Emerging markets face challenges from China's slowdown and commodity price declines but conditions are projected to improve in 2016.
- The document analyzes global economic growth trends and forecasts from 2008-2017. It summarizes The World Bank's forecast of moderate global GDP growth rising to 3.0% in 2015 and averaging 3.3% through 2017.
- The strategist argues The World Bank is overly optimistic given factors like China's economic slowdown and the end of the commodity super cycle. Slow global growth is expected to continue in the near future.
- Key themes discussed include diverging economic policies driving US dollar strength and deflation, China's transition from manufacturing to services, and tailwinds for short-term US growth amid a challenging global environment.
The European Commission raised its growth forecast for Spain in 2018 to 2.6%, higher than last year's projection. Political uncertainty in Catalonia could reduce the regional economy by 1.1 percentage points and Spain's overall economy by 0.3 percentage points. Meanwhile, new housing loans in Spain grew 3.6% in 2017, supported by economic growth, job creation, and low interest rates. However, the pension system deficit accounted for 1.6% of GDP in 2017 due to rising pension costs and weak growth in social security contributions.
Olivier Desbarres - Hawkish Pendulum May Have Swung Too FarOlivier Desbarres
I have long argued that the risk of a collapse in global economic growth and inflation was over-stated and more recently that major central banks had likely reached an important inflexion point.
A global recession and global deflation have seemingly been averted and central bank policy rate cuts and extensions of quantitative easing programs have become rarer occurrences.
Donald Trump’s election has turbo-charged expectations that reflationary US-centric policies will drive global, and in particular US growth and inflation in 2017, that the Fed’s hiking cycle will step up a gear and that US yields and equities and the dollar will climb further, heaping pressure on emerging economies and asset prices.
But analysts and markets may now be getting ahead of themselves.
My core reasoning is that US inflation may not rise as fast expected, due to lags in the implementation of Trump’s planned fiscal policy loosening and immigration curbs, residual slack in the US labour market and disinflationary impact of higher US yields and a stronger dollar.
As a result, the FOMC, which will see important personnel changes in early 2017, may argue that the market has already done some its work and not be as hawkish as expected.
In this scenario, US short-end rates could lose ground while long-end rates continue to push higher, resulting in a steepening of a still not very steep US rates curve.
One corollary is that factors which have wakened the euro may lose traction as 2017 progresses.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we discuss China’s GDP release for Q2:2016, policy stance of Bank of England and IMF’s latest global growth forecast in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, we present analysis of the trends emanating out of the recent releases on Monsoon progress, IIP, Inflation, Trade and CII’s Business Outlook Survey Results for Q1FY17. In Policy Focus, we present the highlights of the key policy documents released during June-July 2016. In Focus of the Month,the topic ‘Transforming Healthcare in India' has been covered.
Monetary policy is entering a phase of normalization as rates rise and central bank liquidity is reduced. However, the transition will likely be gradual, and liquidity will still lubricate financial systems into 2018. While monetary policy may become less accommodative, fiscal policies in advanced economies will likely shift toward less restrictive or even expansionary stances. Financing is expected to remain available due to optimism about growth and inflation, especially with continued weak commodity prices. However, the transition to more normal conditions presents some risk given the exceptional extensions of liquidity in recent years.
- Indian equity markets fell in June 2017 for the first time in 2017 due to concerns around the implementation of GST and slowing domestic growth.
- Global growth forecasts were maintained but concerns remain around rising US interest rates and the need for China to accelerate economic reforms.
- India's fiscal deficit increased in the first two months of the fiscal year while inflation rates declined.
The document discusses how the US federal budget deficit has grown large due to lower tax revenues and higher spending during the recession. It projects that the federal debt will exceed historical levels by 2023 and reach 190% of GDP by 2035 if changes are not made. It also summarizes factors like entitlement spending and healthcare costs that contribute to the growing deficit. The document argues that Democrats and Republicans need to agree on spending cuts and revenue increases to address the issue.
The document provides an economic update and discusses developments in several regions including Australia, the US, Europe, the UK, China, and Japan. Key points include:
- Australian property investors were the focus of additional lending restrictions from banks and regulators. Population growth is supporting the Australian economy, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.
- The US labor market remains tight and wage growth is increasing, putting pressure on inflation. Uncertainty remains around future policy from the Trump administration.
- Eurozone economic data shows continued strengthening, but inflation remains below target. Monetary policy normalization will be a gradual process.
- UK retail sales rebounded in February but consumer spending power faces pressure from inflation. Business surveys remain strong despite
The document provides an economic and labor market outlook for 2017 and beyond. It finds that while global economic growth is expected to improve slightly to 2.8% in 2017, significant risks remain from political uncertainties. Unemployment is projected to continue declining as growth improves in most major regions. Specifically:
- North American markets have positive outlooks for 2017, while Brazil and Venezuela will struggle with deep recessions. Labor markets in western Europe are improving but face challenges like youth unemployment.
- APAC is expected to outpace other regions, with steady job creation lowering unemployment. However, economic activity may temper in China and India.
- Developing the potential of young workers is important for countries' long-term
Similar to Us economic growth remains above trend (20)
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
办理美国UNCC毕业证书制作北卡大学夏洛特分校假文凭定制Q微168899991做UNCC留信网教留服认证海牙认证改UNCC成绩单GPA做UNCC假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leadermsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcriptynfqplhm
办理美国SDSU毕业证书制作南达科他州立大学假文凭定制Q微168899991做SDSU留信网教留服认证海牙认证改SDSU成绩单GPA做SDSU假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请南达科他州立大学South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcript
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptxILC- UK
ILC's Retirement Income Summit was hosted by M&G and supported by Canada Life. The event brought together key policymakers, influencers and experts to help identify policy priorities for the next Government and ensure more of us have access to a decent income in retirement.
Contributors included:
Jo Blanden, Professor in Economics, University of Surrey
Clive Bolton, CEO, Life Insurance M&G Plc
Jim Boyd, CEO, Equity Release Council
Molly Broome, Economist, Resolution Foundation
Nida Broughton, Co-Director of Economic Policy, Behavioural Insights Team
Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director and Head of Retirement, Savings, and Ageing, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Independent Age
Tom Evans, Managing Director of Retirement, Canada Life
Steve Groves, Chair, Key Retirement Group
Tish Hanifan, Founder and Joint Chair of the Society of Later life Advisers
Sue Lewis, ILC Trustee
Siobhan Lough, Senior Consultant, Hymans Robertson
Mick McAteer, Co-Director, The Financial Inclusion Centre
Stuart McDonald MBE, Head of Longevity and Democratic Insights, LCP
Anusha Mittal, Managing Director, Individual Life and Pensions, M&G Life
Shelley Morris, Senior Project Manager, Living Pension, Living Wage Foundation
Sarah O'Grady, Journalist
Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
Daniela Silcock, Head of Policy Research, Pensions Policy Institute
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC
Jordi Skilbeck, Senior Policy Advisor, Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
Rt Hon Sir Stephen Timms, former Chair, Work & Pensions Committee
Nigel Waterson, ILC Trustee
Jackie Wells, Strategy and Policy Consultant, ILC Strategic Advisory Board
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.