These slides were presented at the ASSA 2020 meeting by President Daly during a panel session titled “Navigating the Crosscurrents: The Outlook for the Global Economy” hosted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).
Mary Daly
President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
National Bureau of Economic Research Wage Dynamics in the 21st Century Conference Spring 2021
Global Economic Update & Strategic Investment Outlook Q2 2014Cohen and Company
An informative overview of the current state of the global economy and the many factors that impact investment strategies, and a look at domestic economic indicators that may impact them.
Monthly Market Perspective - January 2017Mark Biegel
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for January. This month, with the transition in Washington upon us, we reflect on what impact prior presidential cycles had on markets, and assess how this one may turn out.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for June. This month we dive deeper into equity market year-to-date returns and discuss the narrow leadership that has re-emerged, primarily from several large technology companies.
Mary Daly
President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
National Bureau of Economic Research Wage Dynamics in the 21st Century Conference Spring 2021
Global Economic Update & Strategic Investment Outlook Q2 2014Cohen and Company
An informative overview of the current state of the global economy and the many factors that impact investment strategies, and a look at domestic economic indicators that may impact them.
Monthly Market Perspective - January 2017Mark Biegel
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for January. This month, with the transition in Washington upon us, we reflect on what impact prior presidential cycles had on markets, and assess how this one may turn out.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for June. This month we dive deeper into equity market year-to-date returns and discuss the narrow leadership that has re-emerged, primarily from several large technology companies.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for August. Due to the recent rebound in quarterly corporate earnings, this month we explore the importance of this fundamental underpinning to the equity markets.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
Global GDP growth slowed only very marginally in Q3, to about 3.0% year-in-year, in line with my October forecasts. Perhaps even more surprising is World Bank data pointing to quarterly growth having flat-lined at 2.5% yoy between Q2 2014 and Q3 2015.
Year-to-date growth and the up-tick in global PMIs in October-November support the IMF’s prediction of 3.1% GDP growth in 2015, down only marginally from 3.4% in 2012-2014.
So while global trade, inflation and commodity prices have fallen sharply this year, global growth has not thanks in part to resilient consumer demand. This may, at the margin, have given the US Federal Reserve the confidence to hike its policy rate.
But the slowdown in global growth in 2015, despite still record low global policy rates and eurozone quantitative easing, does not provide much cheer for next year.
A review of Q4 2015 corporate earnings reveals a significant slowdown in revenue and earnings growth. While these developments have been affected by the sharp decline in commodity prices,they may reveal early signs of recessionary conditions.
The Labor department reported initial jobless claims increased by 31,000 to 113,000 in the week ending Feb. 21, 2015. The four-week moving average was 294,500. The January employment report stated nonfarm payrolls rose by 257,000 and the U.S. unemployment rate increased to 5.7% on higher participation in the labor force, staying below the 50-year average of 6.1%.
The Fed’s surprise September decision not to taper its bond buying program complicates the development and reliability of consensus policy expectations. We believe the current decline in labor participation may be more structural than cyclical, which could lead to rapid policy tightening at some point in 2014. We believe longer duration-oriented indexes, and fixed income approaches that align closely with them, present inordinately high risks to investors in the current environment.
SandPointe
Investment Perspective
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Roger E. Brinner, PhD
Chief Market Strategist and Co-founding Partner
September 2014
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
If U.S. politics do not derail the recovery, pent-up demand can drive faster economic growth. Fixed-income outflows appear likely to continue, pushing rates higher.
Over the past thirty years the neutral real interest rate across developed economies has declined substantially. Evidence suggests that secular rather than transitory factors are driving its decline. A lower neutral interest rate implies that the cumulative amount of tightening required for monetary policy to become neutral is much smaller than previously thought.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for August. Due to the recent rebound in quarterly corporate earnings, this month we explore the importance of this fundamental underpinning to the equity markets.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
Global GDP growth slowed only very marginally in Q3, to about 3.0% year-in-year, in line with my October forecasts. Perhaps even more surprising is World Bank data pointing to quarterly growth having flat-lined at 2.5% yoy between Q2 2014 and Q3 2015.
Year-to-date growth and the up-tick in global PMIs in October-November support the IMF’s prediction of 3.1% GDP growth in 2015, down only marginally from 3.4% in 2012-2014.
So while global trade, inflation and commodity prices have fallen sharply this year, global growth has not thanks in part to resilient consumer demand. This may, at the margin, have given the US Federal Reserve the confidence to hike its policy rate.
But the slowdown in global growth in 2015, despite still record low global policy rates and eurozone quantitative easing, does not provide much cheer for next year.
A review of Q4 2015 corporate earnings reveals a significant slowdown in revenue and earnings growth. While these developments have been affected by the sharp decline in commodity prices,they may reveal early signs of recessionary conditions.
The Labor department reported initial jobless claims increased by 31,000 to 113,000 in the week ending Feb. 21, 2015. The four-week moving average was 294,500. The January employment report stated nonfarm payrolls rose by 257,000 and the U.S. unemployment rate increased to 5.7% on higher participation in the labor force, staying below the 50-year average of 6.1%.
The Fed’s surprise September decision not to taper its bond buying program complicates the development and reliability of consensus policy expectations. We believe the current decline in labor participation may be more structural than cyclical, which could lead to rapid policy tightening at some point in 2014. We believe longer duration-oriented indexes, and fixed income approaches that align closely with them, present inordinately high risks to investors in the current environment.
SandPointe
Investment Perspective
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Roger E. Brinner, PhD
Chief Market Strategist and Co-founding Partner
September 2014
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
If U.S. politics do not derail the recovery, pent-up demand can drive faster economic growth. Fixed-income outflows appear likely to continue, pushing rates higher.
Over the past thirty years the neutral real interest rate across developed economies has declined substantially. Evidence suggests that secular rather than transitory factors are driving its decline. A lower neutral interest rate implies that the cumulative amount of tightening required for monetary policy to become neutral is much smaller than previously thought.
At an event at its central London Headquarters, chaired by The Times’ Economics Editor Philip Aldrick, Resolution Foundation Chief Economist Matthew Whittaker presented new analysis on the impact of monetary policy during the downturn. Former MPC member Kate Barker and Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times Martin Wolf then debated the future role of monetary policy, before taking part in a wider Q&A.
BU 701Professor Linda MeltzerAssignment # 1Summe.docxhartrobert670
BU 701 Professor Linda Meltzer
Assignment # 1 Summer 2015
Topic: The Fed's Impact on the Financial Markets
Due Date: June 11th
In Module 2, we are focused on the Federal Reserve: its organzation, its main role, goals and targets, and its tools. For this assignment, you will look for and review:
· Latest FOMC Federal Open Market Committee, the policy making body of the Fed) minutes which is a detailed transcript of what happened at the last Fed meeting, and staff and Governor's outlook for financial markets, economy and future expectations. The latest minutes as of now is from April 28-29 meeting and was released in May. Many ways to find it. Make sure you look at whole transcript and not the summary.
· Find latest speech or comments made by Chair Yellen AFTER the meeting in April. She speaks frequently and CNBC picks up her comments so should be very easy to find. Also, find what analysts have said about Yellen's comments.
In a 1-2 page writeup, discuss:
1) key economic conditions that the FED is looking closely at and its significance to their policy as to whether they are going to raise interest rates in 2015;
2) From your reading of the material, how does the FED's action impact financial markets (bonds, stocks, money markets);
3) Has Chair Yellen's recent comments (and feel free to explore other members of the FED eg Gov. Brainerd who has spoken to CNBC other day) changed from last meeting? How?; and
4) You can use any opinions written by financial experts (you can find their analysis on CNBC, CNN, Marketwatch et al) just make sure to footnote or provide sources.
Note: As this is a writing intensive class, please take care with writing grammatically correct, capitalize where needed, and full sentences. No slang.
Grading Guide: Clinical Assessment in Mental Health Centers Newspaper Article
PSYCH/655 Version 2
1
Grading Guide
Clinical Assessment in Mental Health Centers Newspaper Article
This assignment is due in Week Six.
Content
60 Percent
Points Earned
X/6
· Discusses issues with culturally informed assessments
· Discusses issues with assessments of addiction and substance abuse
· Discusses issues with custody evaluations
Comments:
Organization and Development
20 Percent
Points Earned
X/2
· The paper is 1,000 to 1,250 words in length.
· The paper is clear and organized; major points are supported by details, examples, or analysis.
· The tone aligns with the assignment’s purpose and is geared toward the appropriate audience.
· The paper provides relevant and sufficient background on the topic.
· The paper is logical, flows, and reviews the major points.
Comments:
Mechanics and Format
20 Percent
Points Earned
X/2
· The assignment file is presentable and functional.
· Rules of grammar, usage, and punctuation are followed; spelling is correct.
· The paper—including the title page, reference page, tables, and any appendices—is consistent with APA guidelines.
Comments:
Additional Comments:
Total Earned
X/10 ...
Higher growth, higher risk, slightly higher returns
We expect a lack of investment opportunities to remain an enduring challenge for
investors in 2017. We think this despite the fact that economic growth will likely pick
up in 2017 vs the somewhat disappointing performance in 2016. Indeed, over the
past several months, the growth rate of global GDP already appears to be realizing at
the top of the 3%-3½% range that has prevailed throughout the past five years. The
main reason is the swing in the financial conditions impulse from sharply negative to
modestly positive, both in the US and in parts of the emerging world. And the fiscal
stimulus that will likely be enacted by the new Trump administration, and in other
advanced economies, will only reinforce the inflation pressures already in place. With
output and employment already close to potential, the rising inflation pressure
strengthens our conviction that the Federal Reserve will likely raise the funds rate in
December and again three more times during 2017 (“A catalyst for tighter Fed
policy“, Global Economics Analyst, 16 Nov 2016).
Stronger cyclical growth in the US will probably not do much for asset markets
except help shift the narrative from ‘low-flation’ and monetary accommodation to
reflation and rising rates. But this will not change the fact that the trend growth rate
of GDP appears to have fallen for both advanced and emerging economies during
the post-crisis period. Meanwhile, valuation levels for equities and especially bonds
remain highly elevated by historical standards, so expected returns appear to be low
across most asset classes. In fixed income, yield is scarce, and in equities, growth is
scarce. So investors have been pushed into less familiar strategies, such as equity
investors reaching for yield in high-dividend, low-vol stocks, or bond investors lining
up to own the growth risk inherent in the long-duration bonds of tech companies.
Is it time to buy the U.S. in early June?
An oil and materials price bottom is fully in. That is bullish risk. The S&P500 can finish 2016 above 2200, which is a +5%
return. Another big positive: A U.S. 5.0% unemployment rate adds consumer momentum via pending wage pressure. This
builds incomes.
U.S. shares have recovered. Watch for bullish S&P500 breaks of 2,100 in June or later.
Before the Aug. 2015 sell-off, the S&P500 traded at 16.6x forward earnings vs. a 10-year average of 14.1x. The Feb index
traded at 15.2. The June 2016 index trades at 16.7x forward earnings. Bearishly, we trade a bit above valuation levels of
August 2015.
Zacks strategists still call an S&P500 at 2,200 to 2,300 by yearend, given a 15% chance of U.S. recession (including me).
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Olivier Desbarres - Hawkish Pendulum May Have Swung Too FarOlivier Desbarres
I have long argued that the risk of a collapse in global economic growth and inflation was over-stated and more recently that major central banks had likely reached an important inflexion point.
A global recession and global deflation have seemingly been averted and central bank policy rate cuts and extensions of quantitative easing programs have become rarer occurrences.
Donald Trump’s election has turbo-charged expectations that reflationary US-centric policies will drive global, and in particular US growth and inflation in 2017, that the Fed’s hiking cycle will step up a gear and that US yields and equities and the dollar will climb further, heaping pressure on emerging economies and asset prices.
But analysts and markets may now be getting ahead of themselves.
My core reasoning is that US inflation may not rise as fast expected, due to lags in the implementation of Trump’s planned fiscal policy loosening and immigration curbs, residual slack in the US labour market and disinflationary impact of higher US yields and a stronger dollar.
As a result, the FOMC, which will see important personnel changes in early 2017, may argue that the market has already done some its work and not be as hawkish as expected.
In this scenario, US short-end rates could lose ground while long-end rates continue to push higher, resulting in a steepening of a still not very steep US rates curve.
One corollary is that factors which have wakened the euro may lose traction as 2017 progresses.
Will risks-derail-the-modest-recovery-oecd-interim-economic-outlook-march-2017OECD, Economics Department
Global GDP growth is projected to pick up modestly to around 3½ per cent in 2018, from just under 3% in 2016, boosted by fiscal initiatives in the major economies. The forecast is broadly unchanged since November 2016. Confidence has improved, but consumption, investment, trade and productivity are far from strong, with growth slow by past norms and higher inequality.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we explore a variety of factors potentially driving markets and evaluate the risks and rewards lying beneath the surface.
Unemployment Rate: Measuring the Workforce Learn about how the unemployment rate is measured, broader measures of unemployment, and three types of unemployment: structural, cyclical, and frictional.
What happens to income that households do not spend? This DataPost entry considers savings and how deferred spending relates to interest rates and inflation.
“Money” actually includes various forms of payment—not just coins, bills, credit, and checks. This DataPost tutorial walks through the various types of payment that contribute to our notion of “money” in the United States.
Inflation: Measuring Price Changes This DataPost tutorial looks at the Fed’s key measure of inflation—the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index—including how it relates to the concepts of "core" and "total" inflation in the U.S. economy.
GDP is one of the key measures of a nation’s economic performance. This DataPost outlines the components of GDP and places these components within the context of recent values published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
These slides were presented during a policy panel discussion, “Monetary Strategies in Practice,” by President Daly at the Hoover Institution’s Monetary Policy Conference 2019, Strategies for Monetary Policy.
Who is active in the labor force? Behavioral patterns among teenagers, prime-age men and women, and older workers have important implications for the path of unemployment.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
1. U.S. Monetary Policy: A Global View
ASSA Annual Meeting
“Navigating the Crosscurrents:
The Outlook for the Global Economy”
January 3, 2020
Mary C. Daly
President & CEO
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of anyone else in the Federal Reserve System.
3. Slower trend growth
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Holston, Laubach, and Williams (2017).
Trend growth
4. Lower neutral real rate of interest (r*)
Note: Blue-shaded area reflects range of minimum and maximum rates across four countries in sample (U.S., U.K., Japan, and Germany).
Source: Jorda and Taylor (2019).
Estimates of the neutral real rate of interest: Global and the U.S.
6. Slipping inflation expectations
Note: CPI inflation expectations are plotted for the United States, HICP inflation expectations are plotted for the Euro Area.
Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, OECD.
Longer term mean inflation expectations, 5 years ahead
8. 8
• Less conventional policy space
• More room to find full employment
• Fighting inflation from below
• Boosting potential growth is imperative
What does this mean for policy?
9. 9
• Less conventional policy space
• More room to find full employment
• Fighting inflation from below
• Boosting potential growth is imperative
What does this mean for policy?
10. Less room to maneuver in the U.S.
Note: Dashed and dotted line segments indicate the median of rate projections from the FOMC's “Summary of Economic Projections” in September 2018 and December 2019.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Federal funds rate (set by FOMC; with projections)
11. And even less room outside the U.S.
Source: Bank for International Settlements.
Central bank policy rates
12. 12
• Less conventional policy space
• More room to find full employment
• Fighting inflation from below
• Boosting potential growth is imperative
What does this mean for policy?
13. Phillips curve across OECD countries by decade
Inflation and unemployment tradeoff more muted
Source: Jorda and Nechio (2019).
14. Be humble about where full employment lies
Sources: FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, Haver Analytics.
SEP Longer Run Unemployment Rate
15. Labor force participation rates
And what a good economy can do
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics.
16. 16
• Less conventional policy space
• More room to find full employment
• Fighting inflation from below
• Boosting potential growth is imperative
What does this mean for policy?
17. 17
• Forward guidance & QE were valuable tools in the crisis,
but more may be needed
• Potential makeup strategies include: price level, nominal
income, or average inflation targeting
• Most importantly, 2% can’t be a ceiling
New framework likely required
18. 18
• Less conventional policy space
• More room to find full employment
• Fighting inflation from below
• Boosting potential growth is imperative
What does this mean for policy?