Ivan Kaufman, profile picture
Uploaded byIvan Kaufman
PDF, PPTX75 views

Arbor US Economic Overview 2018 Q3

The U.S. economic overview for Q3 2018 reports a GDP growth of 3.5% and a declining unemployment rate to 3.7%, alongside employment increases in various sectors. Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, rose by 2.3% over the year, influenced by rising energy costs, while the Federal Reserve has set a target range for the federal funds rate between 2% and 2.25%. Additionally, the homeownership rate increased to 64.4%, driven by first-time buyers under 35 years of age.

Embed presentation

Download as PDF, PPTX
ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 1 Economic Projections of the Federal Reserve Board As of September 2018, Central Tendency Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 2018 2019 2020 2021 Longer run Change in Real GDP 3.0% to 3.2% 2.4% to 2.7% 1.8% to 2.1% 1.6% to 2.0% 1.8% to 2.0% June Projection 2.7% to 3.0% 2.2% to 2.6% 1.8% to 2.0% N/A 1.8% to 2.0% Unemployment Rate 3.7% 3.4% to 3.6% 3.4% to 3.8% 3.5% to 4.0% 4.3% to 4.6% June Projection 3.6% to 3.7% 3.4% to 3.5% 3.4% to 3.7% N/A 4.3% to 4.6% PCE Inflation 2.0% to 2.1% 2.0% to 2.1% 2.1% to 2.2% 2.0% to 2.2% 2.0% June Projection 2.0% to 2.1% 2.0% to 2.2% 2.1% to 2.2% N/A 2.0% Core PCE Inflation 1.9% to 2.0% 2.0% to 2.1% 2.1% to 2.2% 2.0% to 2.2% June Projection 1.9% to 2.0% 2.0% to 2.2% 2.1% to 2.2% N/A Federal Funds Rate 2.1% to 2.4% 2.9% to 3.4% 3.1% to 3.6% 2.9% to 3.6% 2.8% to 3.0% June Projection 2.1% to 2.4% 2.9% to 3.4% 3.1% to 3.6% N/A 2.8% to 3.0% “In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4%. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum %nt objective and its symmetric 2% inflation objective.” - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s Monetary Policy Release, September 26, 2018
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 2 U.S. Recession -900.0 -600.0 -300.0 0.0 300.0 600.0 Sep-03 Mar-05 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14 Sep-15 Mar-17 Sep-18 Monthly Change 12-Month Moving Average Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research Employment Growth United States, All Employees, Total Nonfarm, Seasonally Adjusted The unemployment rate declined to 3.7% in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 3 Mining and Logging 0.5% Construction 5.0% Manufacturing 8.5% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 18.5% Information 1.8% Financial Activities 5.7% Professional and Business Services 14.2% Education and Health Services 15.9% Leisure and Hospitality 10.9% Other Services 3.9% Government 15.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment By Industry United States, Thousands, September 2018 Employment Growth By Industry United States, 12-Month Percent Change, September 2018 Mining and Logging Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Total Nonfarm -2.0% 2.0% 6.0% 10.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 4 Employment Growth by Metropolitan Area Total Nonfarm, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change, August 2017 to August 2018 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics In August, 60 metropolitan areas had over- the-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment and 328 were essentially unchanged. The largest over-the-year employment increases occurred in New York-Newark- Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (+136,100), Dallas- Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (+114,900), and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX (+110,200). The largest over-the-year percentage gains in employment occurred in Midland, TX (+9.2%), Manhattan, KS (+8.2%), and Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ (+6.9%).
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 5 U.S. Recession -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% Sep-03 Mar-05 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14 Sep-15 Mar-17 Sep-18 Consumer Price Index (%) Federal Funds Inflation Target (%) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research Consumer Price Index United States, All Items, Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change, 1982-84=100 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 2.3% for the 12 months ending in September, a smaller increase than the 2.7% increase for the 12 months ending in August. The energy index rose 4.8% over the last year, a smaller increase than the 10.2% increase for the 12 month period ending in August.
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 6 U.S. Recession -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% Sep-03 Mar-05 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14 Sep-15 Mar-17 Sep-18 CPI All Items Owners' Equivalent Rent of Residences Rent of Primary Residence Consumer Price Index for Rent and Rent Equivalence United States, All Items, Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change, 1982-84=100 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 2.3% for the 12 months ending in September, a smaller increase than the 2.7% increase for the 12 months ending in August. The shelter index continued to rise and accounted for over half of the seasonally adjusted monthly increase in the all items index. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 7 U.S. Recession 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Average Hourly Earnings Average Hourly Earnings United States, All Employees, Total Private, Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change Real average hourly earnings increased 0.5%, seasonally adjusted, from September 2017 to September 2018. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with the 0.6% increase in the average workweek resulted in a 1.1% increase in real average weekly earnings over this period. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 8 U.S. Recession -10.0% -6.0% -2.0% 2.0% 6.0% 10.0% 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17 3Q18 Gross Domestic Product (%) 15-Year Average Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Gross Domestic Product United States, Quarterly Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Based on Chained 2009 Dollars Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.5% in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 4.2%.
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 9 U.S. Recession 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1,000.0 1Q54 1Q56 1Q58 1Q60 1Q62 1Q64 1Q66 1Q68 1Q70 1Q72 1Q74 1Q76 1Q78 1Q80 1Q82 1Q84 1Q86 1Q88 1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q98 1Q00 1Q02 1Q04 1Q06 1Q08 1Q10 1Q12 1Q14 1Q16 1Q18 Corporate Profits Compensation of Employees Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Corporate Profits and Compensation of Employees Includes Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator; Index 1954=100; Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate; Quarterly “The trends of the two series tend to track each other over several decades, reflecting the general growth of the economy. The past decade and a half seems to be different, though. Never have corporate profits outgrown employee compensation so clearly and for so long.” - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; August 9, 2018
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 10 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 Apr-33to Apr-37 Jul-38to Jan-45 Nov-45to Oct-48 Nov-49to Jun-53 Jun-54to Jul-57 May-58to Mar-60 Mar-61to Nov-69 Dec-70to Oct-73 Apr-75to Dec-79 Aug-80to Jun-81 Dec-82to Jun-90 Apr-91to Feb-01 Dec-01to Nov-07 Jul-09to Current Time Between Recessions (Months) Average Source: National Bureau of Economic Research Time Between Recessions (1933 to Current) NBER Based Recession Indicators for the United States From the Peak Through the Trough Longest Time Between Recessions (Apr-91 to Feb-01): 119 mo. Average Time Between Recessions: 62 mo. Time Since Previous Recession: 111 mo.
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 11 U.S. Recession 0.0% 1.5% 3.0% 4.5% 6.0% Sep-03 Mar-05 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14 Sep-15 Mar-17 Sep-18 3-Month Treasury 2-Year Treasury 10-Year Treasury Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Treasury Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions Monthly, End of Period, Not Seasonally Adjusted “Research beginning in the late 1980s documents the empirical regularity that the slope of the yield curve is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity.” - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 12 U.S. Recession 60.0% 62.0% 64.0% 66.0% 68.0% 70.0% 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD18 Homeownership Rate (%) Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Homeownership Rate United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Annual, End of Period The U.S. homeownership rate inched up to 64.4% in the third quarter, driven by young buyers entering the housing market for the first time. The share of households headed by someone under 35 years old rose to 36.8% in the third quarter, up 1.2% from one year ago, and the highest level since the end of 2013.
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 1313 Homeownership and Household Formation United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Annual, End of Period Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 60.0% 62.5% 65.0% 67.5% 70.0% -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD18 Thousands Owner Occupied Housing Units (Millions) Renter Occupied Housing Units (Millions) Homeownership Rate (%)
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 14 U.S. Recession 30.0% 45.0% 60.0% 75.0% 90.0% 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17 3Q18 U.S. Overall Under 35 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and over Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census; National Bureau of Economic Research Homeownership Rate by Age United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Annual, End of Period The homeownership rate was 64.4% in Q3 2018, up from 64.3% in the second quarter and 63.9% one year ago. The rate for homeowners under age 35 increased to 36.8%, the highest level since the end of 2013, and up strongly from 35.6% one year ago.
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 15 U.S. Recession $0.0 $0.3 $0.6 $1.0 $1.3 $1.6 2Q06 2Q07 2Q08 2Q09 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 Thousands Student Loans Outstanding (Trillions) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Student Loans Outstanding United States, Owned and Securitized, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly, End of Period “College tuition hikes and the resulting increase in student debt burdens in recent years have caused a significant drop in homeownership among young Americans, according to new research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The study is the first to quantify the impact of the recent and significant rise in college-related debt on the decline in homeownership among Americans ages 28 to 30. ” - Bloomberg
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 16 60.0 63.0 66.0 69.0 72.0 75.0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 “Millennials are expected to overtake Boomers in population in 2019 as their numbers swell to 73 million and Boomers decline to 72 million. Generation X (ages 36 to 51 in 2016) is projected to pass the Boomers in population by 2028.” - Pew Research Center Millennials Projected to Become America’s Largest Generation Projections of the Population: Age 20-34 (Millions) Source: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 17 100.0 125.0 150.0 175.0 200.0 225.0 Aug-03 Feb-05 Aug-06 Feb-08 Aug-09 Feb-11 Aug-12 Feb-14 Aug-15 Feb-17 Aug-18 U.S. Recession S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index United States, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, January 2000 = 100 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in August, down from 6.0% in the previous month. Las Vegas, San Francisco and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. Four of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending August 2018 versus the year ending July 2018.
U.S. Economic Overview Q3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 18 U.S. Recession 2.0% 3.2% 4.4% 5.6% 6.8% 8.0% 100.0 130.0 160.0 190.0 220.0 250.0 Sep-03 Mar-05 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14 Sep-15 Mar-17 Sep-18 Housing Affordability Index 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (%) 18 Housing Affordability Index United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Source: National Association of Realtors; Freddie Mac; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20% down payment.
ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 About Us Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE:ABR) is a nationwide real estate investment trust and direct lender, providing loan origination and servicing for multifamily, seniors housing, healthcare and other diverse commercial real estate assets. Headquartered in Uniondale, New York, Arbor manages a multibillion-dollar servicing portfolio, specializing in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other government-sponsored enterprises, as well as CMBS, bridge, mezzanine and preferred equity lending. Rated by Standard and Poor’s and Fitch Ratings, Arbor is committed to building on its reputation for service, quality and flexibility and dedicated to providing our clients excellence over the entire life of a loan. The research contained in this report should not be construed as a solicitation to and/or trade. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice; all information is subject to change. Arbor, its members, shareholders, employees, agents and representatives do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance on the content contained herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

More Related Content

PDF
Arbor US Economic Overview 2018 Q1
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Arbor US Economic Overview 2018 q2
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview 2018 q4
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Trend Analysis of Consumer Price Index: Useful Lessons for Business Decision ...
byInternational Journal of Economics and Financial Research
 
PDF
Consumer Economic Trends March 2016
byCharles McKay
 
PDF
EUpDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic Indicators
byEcofin Surge
 
PDF
The Berkeley Research Group presents an Economic update March 17 - distribu...
byScott Swimley
 
PDF
U.S. Economic Overview | Q2 2020
byIvan Kaufman
 
Arbor US Economic Overview 2018 Q1
byIvan Kaufman
 
Arbor US Economic Overview 2018 q2
byIvan Kaufman
 
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview 2018 q4
byIvan Kaufman
 
Trend Analysis of Consumer Price Index: Useful Lessons for Business Decision ...
byInternational Journal of Economics and Financial Research
 
Consumer Economic Trends March 2016
byCharles McKay
 
EUpDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic Indicators
byEcofin Surge
 
The Berkeley Research Group presents an Economic update March 17 - distribu...
byScott Swimley
 
U.S. Economic Overview | Q2 2020
byIvan Kaufman
 

What's hot

PDF
20140430_MACRO_BRAZIL_FISCAL
byMauricio Oreng
 
PDF
8 kelechi igwe_86--90
byAlexander Decker
 
DOC
Emerging Economy June 2009 Indicus Analytics
byIndicus Analytics Private Limited
 
PDF
Econ chart book February 2016
byCharles McKay
 
PDF
Rbc weekly economic indicators
bycomedyjant
 
DOC
Emerging Economy August 2009 Indicus Analytics
byIndicus Analytics Private Limited
 
PDF
2018 Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy - (31 J...
byrmcnab67
 
PPTX
Sinclair.macro economicforecasting
byTara Sinclair
 
PDF
Weekly media update 19.02.2018
byBalmerLawrie
 
PPTX
Commodity factors affecting commodity prices 14012011
byflame2011
 
PPT
Spring 2015 Economic Update: Ups & Downs in America
byPublicFinanceTV
 
DOC
Emerging Economy May 2009 Indicus Analytics
byIndicus Analytics Private Limited
 
PDF
June 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
byJLL
 
PDF
Epic Research Singapore : - Daily IForex Report of 01 April 2016
byepicresearchsgmy
 
PDF
May 2015 - Getting productivity back on track
byFGV Brazil
 
PPTX
India : Economic growth slows
byFinalytiks Analytics
 
PDF
Weekly media update 16 04_2019
byBalmerLawrie
 
PDF
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018
byOTP Bank Ltd.
 
PDF
E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin
byEcofin Surge
 
20140430_MACRO_BRAZIL_FISCAL
byMauricio Oreng
 
8 kelechi igwe_86--90
byAlexander Decker
 
Emerging Economy June 2009 Indicus Analytics
byIndicus Analytics Private Limited
 
Econ chart book February 2016
byCharles McKay
 
Rbc weekly economic indicators
bycomedyjant
 
Emerging Economy August 2009 Indicus Analytics
byIndicus Analytics Private Limited
 
2018 Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy - (31 J...
byrmcnab67
 
Sinclair.macro economicforecasting
byTara Sinclair
 
Weekly media update 19.02.2018
byBalmerLawrie
 
Commodity factors affecting commodity prices 14012011
byflame2011
 
Spring 2015 Economic Update: Ups & Downs in America
byPublicFinanceTV
 
Emerging Economy May 2009 Indicus Analytics
byIndicus Analytics Private Limited
 
June 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
byJLL
 
Epic Research Singapore : - Daily IForex Report of 01 April 2016
byepicresearchsgmy
 
May 2015 - Getting productivity back on track
byFGV Brazil
 
India : Economic growth slows
byFinalytiks Analytics
 
Weekly media update 16 04_2019
byBalmerLawrie
 
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018
byOTP Bank Ltd.
 
E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin
byEcofin Surge
 

Similar to Arbor US Economic Overview 2018 Q3

PDF
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
byIvan Kaufman
 
PPTX
Bloomberg Brief Q3 Economic Outlook
byBloomberg Briefs
 
PPTX
Summer/Fall 2013 Economic Update
byPublicFinanceTV
 
PPTX
2014 Residential Market Update Presentation. Stephen Slifer
byCharleston Trident Association of REALTORS
 
PPTX
Georgia business brokers 3 28-17
byLara Van Pletzen (MBA)
 
PDF
Economic Forecast (August 2012)
byNar Res
 
PPTX
FINAL - FED CHALLENGE PRESENTATION 2014 (New)
byHyung Joo Yun (Eliana)
 
PDF
FOMC Members Projection of US economy
byatul baride
 
PDF
Arrowroot Family Office Global Economic Activity
byRamtinKhah1
 
PDF
The U.S. Economic Outlook
byCongressional Budget Office
 
PDF
2014 Economic Forecast: Year of the Rebound? McCombs School of Business
byUT Austin McCombs School of Business
 
PPT
James Glassman - Global Renewal Presentation
byFranz von Bradsky
 
PDF
Too Big to Fail - EconForecast2014
byAnastasia Paluch
 
PDF
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017
byAtoZForex.com
 
DOCX
Printer Version - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sy.docx
byChantellPantoja184
 
PPTX
Final Presentation (2)
byElijah Fiore
 
PDF
Fed final v.f
byOlena Ostasheva
 
PDF
Vertex annual state of the construction industry presentation 2018
byThe Vertex Companies, LLC
 
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019
byIvan Kaufman
 
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
byIvan Kaufman
 
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
byIvan Kaufman
 
Bloomberg Brief Q3 Economic Outlook
byBloomberg Briefs
 
Summer/Fall 2013 Economic Update
byPublicFinanceTV
 
2014 Residential Market Update Presentation. Stephen Slifer
byCharleston Trident Association of REALTORS
 
Georgia business brokers 3 28-17
byLara Van Pletzen (MBA)
 
Economic Forecast (August 2012)
byNar Res
 
FINAL - FED CHALLENGE PRESENTATION 2014 (New)
byHyung Joo Yun (Eliana)
 
FOMC Members Projection of US economy
byatul baride
 
Arrowroot Family Office Global Economic Activity
byRamtinKhah1
 
The U.S. Economic Outlook
byCongressional Budget Office
 
2014 Economic Forecast: Year of the Rebound? McCombs School of Business
byUT Austin McCombs School of Business
 
James Glassman - Global Renewal Presentation
byFranz von Bradsky
 
Too Big to Fail - EconForecast2014
byAnastasia Paluch
 
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017
byAtoZForex.com
 
Printer Version - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sy.docx
byChantellPantoja184
 
Final Presentation (2)
byElijah Fiore
 
Fed final v.f
byOlena Ostasheva
 
Vertex annual state of the construction industry presentation 2018
byThe Vertex Companies, LLC
 

More from Ivan Kaufman

PDF
Small Apartment Properties Form Core of Workforce Rental Demand In the Top M...
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Workforce Rental Demand Growing Faster In Smaller Metros
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
The Changing Occupational Profile of Workforce Segment Renters
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Multifamily Properties Capture Largest Share of Overall U.S. Workforce Housin...
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
How Large is the Workforce Housing Rental Segment?
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Arbor Small Multifamily Report Q1 2020
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Fewer Households Cost Burdened in Small Apartment Assets
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Small Apartment Properties Pack Value For Money with More Space in Urban Adja...
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Small Multifamily Loans | Arbor Q4 2019
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Single-Family Rentals | Arbor Q4 2019
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Small Apartment Buildings Vital for Urban Workforce Housing
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Older Households Make Gains in Small Asset Unit Demand, Millennial Households...
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Families With Children Dominate Single-Family Rental Demand, Single Renters o...
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Single-Family Rental Market | Q3 2019
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Small Buildings Still Dominate Apartment Renter Shares
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Small Building Renters Are Growing in a Handful of Regional Markets Amidst Ge...
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Arbor Multifamily Small Loans Report 2018 Q4
byIvan Kaufman
 
PDF
Are Baby Boomers the New Millennials in Multifamily?
byIvan Kaufman
 
Small Apartment Properties Form Core of Workforce Rental Demand In the Top M...
byIvan Kaufman
 
Workforce Rental Demand Growing Faster In Smaller Metros
byIvan Kaufman
 
The Changing Occupational Profile of Workforce Segment Renters
byIvan Kaufman
 
Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
byIvan Kaufman
 
Multifamily Properties Capture Largest Share of Overall U.S. Workforce Housin...
byIvan Kaufman
 
How Large is the Workforce Housing Rental Segment?
byIvan Kaufman
 
Arbor Small Multifamily Report Q1 2020
byIvan Kaufman
 
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1
byIvan Kaufman
 
Fewer Households Cost Burdened in Small Apartment Assets
byIvan Kaufman
 
Small Apartment Properties Pack Value For Money with More Space in Urban Adja...
byIvan Kaufman
 
Small Multifamily Loans | Arbor Q4 2019
byIvan Kaufman
 
Single-Family Rentals | Arbor Q4 2019
byIvan Kaufman
 
Small Apartment Buildings Vital for Urban Workforce Housing
byIvan Kaufman
 
Older Households Make Gains in Small Asset Unit Demand, Millennial Households...
byIvan Kaufman
 
Families With Children Dominate Single-Family Rental Demand, Single Renters o...
byIvan Kaufman
 
Single-Family Rental Market | Q3 2019
byIvan Kaufman
 
Small Buildings Still Dominate Apartment Renter Shares
byIvan Kaufman
 
Small Building Renters Are Growing in a Handful of Regional Markets Amidst Ge...
byIvan Kaufman
 
Arbor Multifamily Small Loans Report 2018 Q4
byIvan Kaufman
 
Are Baby Boomers the New Millennials in Multifamily?
byIvan Kaufman
 

Recently uploaded

DOCX
11 Best Trusted Places to Buy Verified Remitly Accounts in 2026.docx
bymarketing
 
PDF
10 Best Sites to Buy (X) Twitter Accounts for Sellers Top 11....pdf
bymarketing
 
DOCX
Fast Delivery of Real Buy Twitter Accounts Available for Purchase.docx
bybarbeymcdanielokczz
 
PPTX
MSME Roles (1).pptx PPT ON MICRO SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES
byMeenakshiPIET
 
PPTX
Union_Budget_2026_27_Defence_Presentation.pptx
bycomefridaybaboon
 
DOCX
Step by Step Guide to Buying a Old or Aged Verified Paxful Accounts in US.docx
byTopSelleriTDotCom
 
PDF
The-Benefits-of-Bridge-and-Hard-Money-Loans.pdf
byGSR SERVICES LLC
 
DOCX
Buy Google Voice Accounts Verified for Use in US and UK.docx
bymarketing
 
DOCX
7 Step-by-Step Blueprints for Buying a Verified Venmo Accounts.docx
byDigital Accounts Service Provider TOPSELLERIT
 
PDF
"Union Budget 2026-27: A Strategic Vision for India's Economic Growth and Dev...
byCA Suvidha Chaplot
 
DOCX
Step-by-Step Guide to Buy Google Ads Accounts Securely.docx
bymarketing
 
PPTX
Emerging Operational Risk for Banking Sector
bybilibahi911
 
PDF
Monitoring implementation of the IMF program and EU assistance (January 2026)
byІнститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій
 
PDF
TriStar Gold Corporate Presentation - 2026.Feb.pdf
byAdnet Communications
 
DOCX
Top 10 Tips To Buy Verified Binance Accounts_ An Educational Guide topselleri...
bysofon20277
 
PDF
THE NEXT GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REVOLUTION (2030 TO 2050) AND BRAZIL.pdf
byFaga1939
 
PDF
"Excel Tips by CA Suvidha Chaplot: Master Excel Functions with Easy-to-Follow...
byCA Suvidha Chaplot
 
PDF
AI Communities Develop "Conventions" and Biases: Slickorps Explains the Socio...
byodejmfxs
 
PPTX
Globalisation populism Brexit Varblane2024.pptx
byvarblane
 
PDF
Asstkaft_Seeman_Newsletter_February_2026.pdf
byAshis Kumar Dey
 
11 Best Trusted Places to Buy Verified Remitly Accounts in 2026.docx
bymarketing
 
10 Best Sites to Buy (X) Twitter Accounts for Sellers Top 11....pdf
bymarketing
 
Fast Delivery of Real Buy Twitter Accounts Available for Purchase.docx
bybarbeymcdanielokczz
 
MSME Roles (1).pptx PPT ON MICRO SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES
byMeenakshiPIET
 
Union_Budget_2026_27_Defence_Presentation.pptx
bycomefridaybaboon
 
Step by Step Guide to Buying a Old or Aged Verified Paxful Accounts in US.docx
byTopSelleriTDotCom
 
The-Benefits-of-Bridge-and-Hard-Money-Loans.pdf
byGSR SERVICES LLC
 
Buy Google Voice Accounts Verified for Use in US and UK.docx
bymarketing
 
7 Step-by-Step Blueprints for Buying a Verified Venmo Accounts.docx
byDigital Accounts Service Provider TOPSELLERIT
 
"Union Budget 2026-27: A Strategic Vision for India's Economic Growth and Dev...
byCA Suvidha Chaplot
 
Step-by-Step Guide to Buy Google Ads Accounts Securely.docx
bymarketing
 
Emerging Operational Risk for Banking Sector
bybilibahi911
 
Monitoring implementation of the IMF program and EU assistance (January 2026)
byІнститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій
 
TriStar Gold Corporate Presentation - 2026.Feb.pdf
byAdnet Communications
 
Top 10 Tips To Buy Verified Binance Accounts_ An Educational Guide topselleri...
bysofon20277
 
THE NEXT GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REVOLUTION (2030 TO 2050) AND BRAZIL.pdf
byFaga1939
 
"Excel Tips by CA Suvidha Chaplot: Master Excel Functions with Easy-to-Follow...
byCA Suvidha Chaplot
 
AI Communities Develop "Conventions" and Biases: Slickorps Explains the Socio...
byodejmfxs
 
Globalisation populism Brexit Varblane2024.pptx
byvarblane
 
Asstkaft_Seeman_Newsletter_February_2026.pdf
byAshis Kumar Dey
 

Arbor US Economic Overview 2018 Q3

  • 1.
    ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 U.S.Economic Overview Q3 2018
  • 2.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 1 Economic Projections of the Federal Reserve Board As of September 2018, Central Tendency Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 2018 2019 2020 2021 Longer run Change in Real GDP 3.0% to 3.2% 2.4% to 2.7% 1.8% to 2.1% 1.6% to 2.0% 1.8% to 2.0% June Projection 2.7% to 3.0% 2.2% to 2.6% 1.8% to 2.0% N/A 1.8% to 2.0% Unemployment Rate 3.7% 3.4% to 3.6% 3.4% to 3.8% 3.5% to 4.0% 4.3% to 4.6% June Projection 3.6% to 3.7% 3.4% to 3.5% 3.4% to 3.7% N/A 4.3% to 4.6% PCE Inflation 2.0% to 2.1% 2.0% to 2.1% 2.1% to 2.2% 2.0% to 2.2% 2.0% June Projection 2.0% to 2.1% 2.0% to 2.2% 2.1% to 2.2% N/A 2.0% Core PCE Inflation 1.9% to 2.0% 2.0% to 2.1% 2.1% to 2.2% 2.0% to 2.2% June Projection 1.9% to 2.0% 2.0% to 2.2% 2.1% to 2.2% N/A Federal Funds Rate 2.1% to 2.4% 2.9% to 3.4% 3.1% to 3.6% 2.9% to 3.6% 2.8% to 3.0% June Projection 2.1% to 2.4% 2.9% to 3.4% 3.1% to 3.6% N/A 2.8% to 3.0% “In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4%. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum %nt objective and its symmetric 2% inflation objective.” - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s Monetary Policy Release, September 26, 2018
  • 3.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 2 U.S. Recession -900.0 -600.0 -300.0 0.0 300.0 600.0 Sep-03 Mar-05 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14 Sep-15 Mar-17 Sep-18 Monthly Change 12-Month Moving Average Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research Employment Growth United States, All Employees, Total Nonfarm, Seasonally Adjusted The unemployment rate declined to 3.7% in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.
  • 4.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 3 Mining and Logging 0.5% Construction 5.0% Manufacturing 8.5% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 18.5% Information 1.8% Financial Activities 5.7% Professional and Business Services 14.2% Education and Health Services 15.9% Leisure and Hospitality 10.9% Other Services 3.9% Government 15.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment By Industry United States, Thousands, September 2018 Employment Growth By Industry United States, 12-Month Percent Change, September 2018 Mining and Logging Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Total Nonfarm -2.0% 2.0% 6.0% 10.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 5.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 4 Employment Growth by Metropolitan Area Total Nonfarm, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change, August 2017 to August 2018 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics In August, 60 metropolitan areas had over- the-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment and 328 were essentially unchanged. The largest over-the-year employment increases occurred in New York-Newark- Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (+136,100), Dallas- Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (+114,900), and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX (+110,200). The largest over-the-year percentage gains in employment occurred in Midland, TX (+9.2%), Manhattan, KS (+8.2%), and Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ (+6.9%).
  • 6.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 5 U.S. Recession -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% Sep-03 Mar-05 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14 Sep-15 Mar-17 Sep-18 Consumer Price Index (%) Federal Funds Inflation Target (%) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research Consumer Price Index United States, All Items, Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change, 1982-84=100 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 2.3% for the 12 months ending in September, a smaller increase than the 2.7% increase for the 12 months ending in August. The energy index rose 4.8% over the last year, a smaller increase than the 10.2% increase for the 12 month period ending in August.
  • 7.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 6 U.S. Recession -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% Sep-03 Mar-05 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14 Sep-15 Mar-17 Sep-18 CPI All Items Owners' Equivalent Rent of Residences Rent of Primary Residence Consumer Price Index for Rent and Rent Equivalence United States, All Items, Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change, 1982-84=100 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 2.3% for the 12 months ending in September, a smaller increase than the 2.7% increase for the 12 months ending in August. The shelter index continued to rise and accounted for over half of the seasonally adjusted monthly increase in the all items index. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
  • 8.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 7 U.S. Recession 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Average Hourly Earnings Average Hourly Earnings United States, All Employees, Total Private, Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change Real average hourly earnings increased 0.5%, seasonally adjusted, from September 2017 to September 2018. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with the 0.6% increase in the average workweek resulted in a 1.1% increase in real average weekly earnings over this period. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
  • 9.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 8 U.S. Recession -10.0% -6.0% -2.0% 2.0% 6.0% 10.0% 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17 3Q18 Gross Domestic Product (%) 15-Year Average Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Gross Domestic Product United States, Quarterly Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Based on Chained 2009 Dollars Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.5% in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 4.2%.
  • 10.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 9 U.S. Recession 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1,000.0 1Q54 1Q56 1Q58 1Q60 1Q62 1Q64 1Q66 1Q68 1Q70 1Q72 1Q74 1Q76 1Q78 1Q80 1Q82 1Q84 1Q86 1Q88 1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q98 1Q00 1Q02 1Q04 1Q06 1Q08 1Q10 1Q12 1Q14 1Q16 1Q18 Corporate Profits Compensation of Employees Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Corporate Profits and Compensation of Employees Includes Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator; Index 1954=100; Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate; Quarterly “The trends of the two series tend to track each other over several decades, reflecting the general growth of the economy. The past decade and a half seems to be different, though. Never have corporate profits outgrown employee compensation so clearly and for so long.” - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; August 9, 2018
  • 11.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 10 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 Apr-33to Apr-37 Jul-38to Jan-45 Nov-45to Oct-48 Nov-49to Jun-53 Jun-54to Jul-57 May-58to Mar-60 Mar-61to Nov-69 Dec-70to Oct-73 Apr-75to Dec-79 Aug-80to Jun-81 Dec-82to Jun-90 Apr-91to Feb-01 Dec-01to Nov-07 Jul-09to Current Time Between Recessions (Months) Average Source: National Bureau of Economic Research Time Between Recessions (1933 to Current) NBER Based Recession Indicators for the United States From the Peak Through the Trough Longest Time Between Recessions (Apr-91 to Feb-01): 119 mo. Average Time Between Recessions: 62 mo. Time Since Previous Recession: 111 mo.
  • 12.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 11 U.S. Recession 0.0% 1.5% 3.0% 4.5% 6.0% Sep-03 Mar-05 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14 Sep-15 Mar-17 Sep-18 3-Month Treasury 2-Year Treasury 10-Year Treasury Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Treasury Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions Monthly, End of Period, Not Seasonally Adjusted “Research beginning in the late 1980s documents the empirical regularity that the slope of the yield curve is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity.” - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • 13.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 12 U.S. Recession 60.0% 62.0% 64.0% 66.0% 68.0% 70.0% 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD18 Homeownership Rate (%) Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Homeownership Rate United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Annual, End of Period The U.S. homeownership rate inched up to 64.4% in the third quarter, driven by young buyers entering the housing market for the first time. The share of households headed by someone under 35 years old rose to 36.8% in the third quarter, up 1.2% from one year ago, and the highest level since the end of 2013.
  • 14.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 1313 Homeownership and Household Formation United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Annual, End of Period Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 60.0% 62.5% 65.0% 67.5% 70.0% -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD18 Thousands Owner Occupied Housing Units (Millions) Renter Occupied Housing Units (Millions) Homeownership Rate (%)
  • 15.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 14 U.S. Recession 30.0% 45.0% 60.0% 75.0% 90.0% 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17 3Q18 U.S. Overall Under 35 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and over Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census; National Bureau of Economic Research Homeownership Rate by Age United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Annual, End of Period The homeownership rate was 64.4% in Q3 2018, up from 64.3% in the second quarter and 63.9% one year ago. The rate for homeowners under age 35 increased to 36.8%, the highest level since the end of 2013, and up strongly from 35.6% one year ago.
  • 16.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 15 U.S. Recession $0.0 $0.3 $0.6 $1.0 $1.3 $1.6 2Q06 2Q07 2Q08 2Q09 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 Thousands Student Loans Outstanding (Trillions) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Student Loans Outstanding United States, Owned and Securitized, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly, End of Period “College tuition hikes and the resulting increase in student debt burdens in recent years have caused a significant drop in homeownership among young Americans, according to new research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The study is the first to quantify the impact of the recent and significant rise in college-related debt on the decline in homeownership among Americans ages 28 to 30. ” - Bloomberg
  • 17.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 16 60.0 63.0 66.0 69.0 72.0 75.0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 “Millennials are expected to overtake Boomers in population in 2019 as their numbers swell to 73 million and Boomers decline to 72 million. Generation X (ages 36 to 51 in 2016) is projected to pass the Boomers in population by 2028.” - Pew Research Center Millennials Projected to Become America’s Largest Generation Projections of the Population: Age 20-34 (Millions) Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  • 18.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 17 100.0 125.0 150.0 175.0 200.0 225.0 Aug-03 Feb-05 Aug-06 Feb-08 Aug-09 Feb-11 Aug-12 Feb-14 Aug-15 Feb-17 Aug-18 U.S. Recession S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index United States, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, January 2000 = 100 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in August, down from 6.0% in the previous month. Las Vegas, San Francisco and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. Four of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending August 2018 versus the year ending July 2018.
  • 19.
    U.S. Economic OverviewQ3 2018 ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 18 U.S. Recession 2.0% 3.2% 4.4% 5.6% 6.8% 8.0% 100.0 130.0 160.0 190.0 220.0 250.0 Sep-03 Mar-05 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14 Sep-15 Mar-17 Sep-18 Housing Affordability Index 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (%) 18 Housing Affordability Index United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Source: National Association of Realtors; Freddie Mac; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20% down payment.
  • 20.
    ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 AboutUs Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE:ABR) is a nationwide real estate investment trust and direct lender, providing loan origination and servicing for multifamily, seniors housing, healthcare and other diverse commercial real estate assets. Headquartered in Uniondale, New York, Arbor manages a multibillion-dollar servicing portfolio, specializing in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other government-sponsored enterprises, as well as CMBS, bridge, mezzanine and preferred equity lending. Rated by Standard and Poor’s and Fitch Ratings, Arbor is committed to building on its reputation for service, quality and flexibility and dedicated to providing our clients excellence over the entire life of a loan. The research contained in this report should not be construed as a solicitation to and/or trade. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice; all information is subject to change. Arbor, its members, shareholders, employees, agents and representatives do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance on the content contained herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.