http://pwc.to/1cpYR81
En octobre, les décideurs de partout dans le monde se sont réunis à Washington DC pour faire le bilan des perspectives économiques mondiales. Pour la première fois depuis 2010, le pronostic d’une reprise soutenue pour les économies développées devrait être positif.
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike its policy rate from 0.25-0.50% at its 16th March 2016 meeting and may have little choice but to revise down its expectations to around 3 hikes for 2016 in its accompanying projections. In the 16th December “dot-chart”, the median expectation among the 10 voting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and 7 non-voting members was for four hikes this year (the weighted average was for a slightly less hawkish 91bp of hikes).
While “Keep your eyes on the stars and your feet on the ground” sounds like a social media cliché, it was President Theodore Roosevelt who first uttered the phrase. It was good advice at the turn of the 20th century, and it still holds true today. As with catchphrases, economic cycles ebb and flow with time. Our 3rd Quarter Economic Update takes an interesting look at domestic and global economic health, and world markets.
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike its policy rate from 0.25-0.50% at its 16th March 2016 meeting and may have little choice but to revise down its expectations to around 3 hikes for 2016 in its accompanying projections. In the 16th December “dot-chart”, the median expectation among the 10 voting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and 7 non-voting members was for four hikes this year (the weighted average was for a slightly less hawkish 91bp of hikes).
While “Keep your eyes on the stars and your feet on the ground” sounds like a social media cliché, it was President Theodore Roosevelt who first uttered the phrase. It was good advice at the turn of the 20th century, and it still holds true today. As with catchphrases, economic cycles ebb and flow with time. Our 3rd Quarter Economic Update takes an interesting look at domestic and global economic health, and world markets.
The August issue of the Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects highlights that economic growth is decelerating markedly in many world regions. Equity markets have tumbled and exchange rate volatility has sharply increased as sovereign debt problems in developed economies continue. Food emergencies are affecting millions of people in the Horn of Africa and Haiti.
The Fed left its policy rate unchanged at 0.25-0.50%, as expected, and the 10 voting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and 7 non-voting members halved their median expectations of rate hikes in 2016 from four to two in their updated projections (see Figure 1). The Fed’s statement, projections and press conference had an undeniably cautious tone, with clear focus on global risks. The rally in US equities (to a new 2016-high) and 2-year rates (to a March low) and further depreciation in the dollar post meeting clearly indicate markets’ dovish interpretation (see Figure 2).
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Análisis de la progresiva recuperación de los mercados internacionales de la perspectiva del empleo, la económica y el nivel de productividad de las empresas.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The August issue of the Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects highlights that economic growth is decelerating markedly in many world regions. Equity markets have tumbled and exchange rate volatility has sharply increased as sovereign debt problems in developed economies continue. Food emergencies are affecting millions of people in the Horn of Africa and Haiti.
The Fed left its policy rate unchanged at 0.25-0.50%, as expected, and the 10 voting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and 7 non-voting members halved their median expectations of rate hikes in 2016 from four to two in their updated projections (see Figure 1). The Fed’s statement, projections and press conference had an undeniably cautious tone, with clear focus on global risks. The rally in US equities (to a new 2016-high) and 2-year rates (to a March low) and further depreciation in the dollar post meeting clearly indicate markets’ dovish interpretation (see Figure 2).
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Análisis de la progresiva recuperación de los mercados internacionales de la perspectiva del empleo, la económica y el nivel de productividad de las empresas.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
http://pwc.to/1lN91cC
Comme tous les mois, l’équipe d’économistes de PwC publie une note sur la situation macro-économique mondiale. Ce mois-ci, focus sur l’accroissement des inégalités dans les pays matures ; les incertitudes concernant la croissance chinoise ; et les prévisions de croissance pour la Grande-Bretagne.
http://pwc.to/RE5u3s
Comme tous les mois, l’équipe d’économistes de PwC publie une note sur la situation macro-économique mondiale. Ce mois-ci, focus sur l’Eurozone, l’inflation et les élections en Inde.
This monthly briefing highlights that global manufacturing production has improved. Economic recovery is slowly strengthening in developed economies; and public fiscal stimulus programmes have been a determinant factor in economic growth in many developing countries.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/index.shtml
Swedbank's Global Economic Outlook, 2010 March 18Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
15Introduction The economy of the United State.docxhallettfaustina
1
5
Introduction
The economy of the United States is the world’s largest national economy in nominal terms and the second in terms of purchasing power parity globally. The economy’s currency the US dollar is used to settle most international transactions. The US economy is a mixed one. Its major trading partners are United Kingdom, Canada, Mexico, South Korea and Japan.
The United States’ economy is one of the high industrialized and diversified economies in the world. Its major industries include; energy, transport, healthcare, and agriculture. It is a leading exporter of innovation goods, arms, petroleum products, and electronics.
The Unites states is a consumption economy where most of the goods and services are consumed locally rather than for export promotion. Although the US is one world’s largest exporters of technology goods it imports heavily from Asian economies like China. Its main export markets are the European Union, Canada, China, and Mexico.
The US economy is still recovering from the 2008 global financial crisis. It is also grappling with plummeting oil prices and is greatly concerned about China growing exports into the economy (Potomac, 2010). Lastly, the economy is in a transition because of regime change.
Production output performance analysis
Real GDP
The real GDP is an inflation-adjusted macroeconomic measure of the value of all goods and services that are produced in an economy in a given year. In simple terms, it measures everything that a country produces in a particular year. It is usually expressed in constant prices which enable it to capture economic growth more accurately as compared to the nominal GDP (Feldstein, 1988). From the graph, we can deduce that the GDP of the US was initially rising from the year 2006 up to the year 2008. During this phase the economy was experiencing a boom and was healthy, employment rates were high and consumption was high. However, the economy slides into a recession in the year 2008. During this period the 2008 global financial crises happened. This led to a decline in US GDP, where it hit its lowest point in the last decade. This scenario persisted up to the year 2010. From 2010 the US economy is seen to be in a recovery where the GDP is increasing significantly over the years.
Real GDP Growth Rate
The real GDP growth rate is a measure of economic expansion in relation to real GDP from one financial year to another. It measures how fast the country’s economy is growing. It is largely driven by net exports, personal consumption, and government expenditure and business investment (Feldstein, 1988). From the graphical representation of the real GDP growth rate of US, we are starting with a positive figure which indicates that the economy is expanding healthy. If the economy is growing then by implication so is employment, personal incomes, and business. During the 2008-2009 global financial the economy went into recession and it can be seen that the real GDP growth ra ...
Economic and Structural Report August 2008, extract fromSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
http://pwc.to/1h2k2l4
Après cinq années de crise, de récession et de croissance décevante, nous pensons que les pays développés peuvent maintenant approcher de la "vitesse de libération" nécessaire pour une reprise durable.
5 Years since the financial crisis, how far has the world really moved?Rajkumar P.
The 2008 financial crisis had devastating impact on the US and World economy. It was the worst crisis since the great depression of 1930s. The US economy contracted the most in the last 70 years and most part of the world was in recession during 2009.
Let’s take stock of how far has the world grown since the crisis. To be precise, we will cover only 65% of the world!
Degroof Petercam Asset Management's chief economist and asset allocator look into whether the reflation trade is for real and inflation is back in the cards.
Hope, headwinds or hurricanes? This presentation from the Economist Intelligence Unit takes a look at the global economy today and in the long-term. Key takeaways: risk of double dip recession is high at 30%, but the EIU thinks that sluggish growth, not negative growth, is the most likely outcome; China will take over the US as the largest economy by 2025; without major economic reform, the euro area may start on a more gradual decline.
Etude PwC "20ème édition de la CEO Survey" - Janvier 2017PwC France
Quelles sont les préoccupations des dirigeants en 2017 ?
Cette année, plus de 1300 dirigeants du monde entier ont témoigné de leur confiance en l’avenir, leur priorités stratégiques.
Recherche de talents et des futurs leaders de demain, stratégies de développement, poids de la technologie et son impact sur la confiance en l’entreprise, dynamiques opposées de mondialisation et de nationalismes impactent le quotidien des dirigeants. Quel regard portent-ils sur leur environnement ?
http://pwc.to/2k0a12Q
***************************************************************
For the last two decades, PwC has asked business leaders everywhere about the trends reshaping business and society. As we mark the 20th year of our annual CEO survey, we’ve observed just how much the world has changed.
Le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC a mené son étude « Carbon Factor » auprès des 20 principaux producteurs d’électricité européens pour la 14ème année consécutive.
Le facteur carbone (exprimé en kg CO2/MWh) se définit comme le rapport entre les émissions de CO2 générées et la production d’électricité correspondante. En 2014, il s’établit à 313 kg CO2/MWh, soit une baisse de 5,8% par rapport à 2013, pour atteindre son plus faible niveau depuis 2001.
Etude PwC : La transition énergétique pour la croissance verte (nov 2015)PwC France
Quels sont les impacts attendus et les tendances du marché français de la Transition Energétique ?
La loi sur la transition énergétique fixe des objectifs ambitieux, définissant la trajectoire énergétique de la France à moyen et long terme
Etude PwC "Total Retail 2015" Sur quoi miser aujourd’hui pour réenchanter la ...PwC France
Dans sa 5ème étude mondiale sur les consommateurs connectés - menée dans 25 pays auprès de 22 600 web-acheteurs, le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC révèle que la France a recruté 17% de nouveaux web-acheteurs en 2015, un chiffre en hausse par rapport à 2014.
GEMO 2016 : un digital de plus en plus cannibale ?PwC France
Dans la 16ème édition de l’étude annuelle « Global Entertainment & Media Outlook », sur les perspectives de l’industrie des médias et des loisirs, PwC prévoit que le marché mondial va croître de 5,1 % en moyenne par an entre 2014 et 2019.
Cette étude, réalisée dans 54 pays, montre qu’avec 3,2% de croissance moyenne annuelle d’ici 2019, la France tire son épingle du jeu parmi les pays matures.
La publicité sur internet devrait y porter la croissance du secteur, et le numérique en général continue de bouleverser le business model de l’ensemble des segments, qu’il s’agisse de l’édition, de la musique, de la presse, des jeux vidéo ou bien encore de la télévision.
Infographie PwC GEMO 2016 sur l'industrie Médias et Loisirs (juin 2015)PwC France
Dans la 16ème édition de l’étude annuelle « Global Entertainment & Media Outlook », sur les perspectives de l’industrie des médias et des loisirs, PwC prévoit que le marché mondial va croître de 5,1 % en moyenne par an entre 2014 et 2019.
Cette étude, réalisée dans 54 pays, montre qu’avec 3,2% de croissance moyenne annuelle d’ici 2019, la France tire son épingle du jeu parmi les pays matures.
Etude PwC Low Carbon Economy Index (oct. 2015)PwC France
L'année 2014 a marqué un tournant en matière de réduction des émissions de carbone dans les économies du G20. C’est ce que révèle le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC dans la 7ème édition de son étude annuelle « Low carbon Economy index », qui modélise l'intensité carbone des grandes économies – à savoir les émissions des gaz à effet de serre liées à la consommation d'énergie par million de dollars de PIB. En effet, l'intensité carbone a chuté de 2,7% en 2014, soit sa plus forte baisse depuis 2000.
La France fait office d’exemple : elle a réduit son intensité carbone de plus de 9% en 2014, ce qui représente la 2ème plus forte réduction des pays du G20, juste derrière le Royaume-Uni (- 10,9%).
Etude FCD, ESSEC et PwC sur la distribution responsable (août 2015)PwC France
Les enseignes de la Fédération du Commerce et
de la Distribution (FCD) se mobilisent depuis de
nombreuses années en faveur du développement
durable. Elles mènent des actions volontaristes
pour réduire l’impact environnemental de leur
activité, mais aussi, conformément aux exigences
de la RSE, en matière de consommation
durable, de gestion responsable des ressources
humaines et d’engagement sociétal.
Les introductions en bourse européennes affichent une forte activité au 2e trimestre grâce aux spin-off,
mais entrent de plus en plus en concurrence avec les processus de ventes.
Etude PwC CEO Survey Talent "People Strategy for the Digital Age" (juillet 2015)PwC France
Dans son étude « People strategy for the digital age : A new take on talent » menée à l’échelle mondiale, le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC constate que, dans un contexte de concurrence mondiale accrue, les entreprises ont désormais besoin de compétences plus diversifiées pour rester compétitives : 73% des dirigeants voient la pénurie des compétences comme une menace sérieuse à la poursuite de leur activité (contre seulement 46% en 2009).
Une des réponses consiste à mettre en place une stratégie de diversification des talents. Pour aller plus loin, les entreprises doivent également se tourner vers l’exploitation et l’analyse des données qu’elles collectent.
Dans sa dernière étude « PwC Golden Age Index : how well are OECD economies adapting to an older workforce ? », le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC compare l’emploi des seniors (travailleurs âgés de plus de 55 ans) dans 34 pays de l’OCDE.
Etude PwC Global Economy Watch (juin 2015)PwC France
Dans leur dernière étude « Global Economy Watch », les économistes du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC ont analysé les performances économiques des cinq premiers pays d’Afrique du Nord – Egypte, Algérie, Maroc, Soudan et Tunisie, près de cinq ans après les débuts du « Printemps arabe » qui a entraîné de grands bouleversements dans toute la région. Cette étude révèle les défis et les opportunités qui attendent les entreprises et les dirigeants politiques en Afrique du Nord.
Etude PwC et Essec "Grande consommation 1985 - 2015 - 2045"PwC France
A l’occasion du 30ème anniversaire de la Chaire Grande Consommation de l’ESSEC, les experts du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC ont imaginé les grandes évolutions du secteur de la distribution et des biens de consommation au cours des trente prochaines années.
Etude PwC sur le Top 100 des entreprises les mieux valorisées au monde en 201...PwC France
La dernière étude du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC « Global Top 100 Companies by market capitalisation » révèle que plus de la moitié (53) des 100 entreprises les mieux valorisées au monde sont américaines, contre seulement 4 entreprises françaises. Apple reste en tête du classement établi par PwC, avec une capitalisation boursière de 725 milliards de dollars, en hausse de 54% (+256 milliards de dollars) par rapport à 2014.
Etude PwC "Bridging the gap" sur les investisseurs institutionnels (mai 2015)PwC France
Selon la dernière étude du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC, intitulée « Bridging the gap », sept investisseurs institutionnels sur dix (70 %) – parmi les 60 qui ont été interrogés par PwC au plan mondial – affirment qu’ils refuseraient de participer à une levée de fonds de private equity ou à un co-investissement si ceux-ci présentaient un risque environnemental, social ou de gouvernance.
Méthodologie :
Pour réaliser cette étude, PwC a mené des entretiens individuels avec 60 commanditaires de 14 pays, totalisant quelque 500 milliards USD d’allocation aux gérants ou general partners (GP) de fonds de private equity. Les participants à l’enquête ont répondu sur la base du volontariat, d’où une surreprésentation probable des investisseurs relativement avancés dans leur approche de l’investissement responsable. Le panel était composé à 30 % de fonds de pension, à 20 % de gestionnaires d’actifs et à 7 % de fonds souverains ou publics. Parmi les répondants figuraient de grands fonds de pension du monde entier, comme le CalSTRS (caisse de retraite de l’enseignement public de Californie), l’USS (caisse de retraite de l’enseignement supérieur britannique), la caisse de retraite de BT, le West Midlands Pension Fund, le Wellcome Trust, un fonds de pension suédois et des fonds confessionnels aux États-Unis et en Finlande. Parmi les principaux gestionnaires d’actifs figuraient les sociétés Aberdeen, Hermes GPE, F&C et BlackRock. 7 investisseurs français ont aussi participé à cette étude comme par exemple BPI France, Ardian ou OFI Asset Management (devenu depuis SWEN Capital Partners).
Etude PwC, AFDEL et SNJV sur "Les 100 digital"PwC France
PwC, l’AFDEL et le SNJV dévoilent l’édition 2015 du GSL 100, classements des principales entreprises de l’édition de logiciels, des services Internet et du jeu vidéo français, dans le cadre de l’étude « Les 100 digital » qui décrypte les tendances et les progressions des entreprises de la French tech.
Etude PwC Global Economy Watch (mai 2015)PwC France
Selon la dernière étude « Global Economy Watch » du cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC, les créances libellées en dollars américains, émises hors des Etats-Unis, ont fortement augmenté au cours de ces dernières années, passant de 6 000 milliards de dollars avant l’instauration des premières mesures d’assouplissement quantitatif en novembre 2008 à environ 9 000 milliards en 2014.
Etude PwC sur l'économie collaborative (mai 2015)PwC France
En dix ans, le concept d'économie collaborative est devenu un véritable marché impliquant de nombreuses startups comme des grandes entreprises internationales. Alors que ce marché représente aujourd’hui 15 milliards de dollars, le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC estime qu’il atteindra 335 milliards de dollars d’ici à 2025.
Source
Les données relatives aux consommations collaboratives des Américains sont issues de l’étude « Consumer Intelligence Series: The Sharing Economy » publiée par PwC en avril 2015. Pour cette étude, 1 000 consommateurs américains, âgés de plus de 18 ans, ont été sondés en ligne entre les 17 et 22 décembre 2014.
Etude PwC sur l'intérêt des investisseurs pour l’Afrique (avril 2015)PwC France
L’intérêt des investisseurs pour l’Afrique continue de progresser, le continent étant perçu comme un marché à fort potentiel de croissance, susceptible d’offrir des opportunités de retour sur investissement très intéressantes. L’Afrique sub-saharienne s’affirme comme la région la plus attractive. En effet, le Ghana, le Nigéria et la Tanzanie forment le Top 3 des pays de choix pour les analystes et investisseurs que le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC a interrogés dans la 7ème édition de l’étude « Valuation methodology survey », qui inclut pour la première fois les réponses des investisseurs en Afrique francophone.
GraphRAG is All You need? LLM & Knowledge GraphGuy Korland
Guy Korland, CEO and Co-founder of FalkorDB, will review two articles on the integration of language models with knowledge graphs.
1. Unifying Large Language Models and Knowledge Graphs: A Roadmap.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08302
2. Microsoft Research's GraphRAG paper and a review paper on various uses of knowledge graphs:
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/graphrag-unlocking-llm-discovery-on-narrative-private-data/
Kubernetes & AI - Beauty and the Beast !?! @KCD Istanbul 2024Tobias Schneck
As AI technology is pushing into IT I was wondering myself, as an “infrastructure container kubernetes guy”, how get this fancy AI technology get managed from an infrastructure operational view? Is it possible to apply our lovely cloud native principals as well? What benefit’s both technologies could bring to each other?
Let me take this questions and provide you a short journey through existing deployment models and use cases for AI software. On practical examples, we discuss what cloud/on-premise strategy we may need for applying it to our own infrastructure to get it to work from an enterprise perspective. I want to give an overview about infrastructure requirements and technologies, what could be beneficial or limiting your AI use cases in an enterprise environment. An interactive Demo will give you some insides, what approaches I got already working for real.
Search and Society: Reimagining Information Access for Radical FuturesBhaskar Mitra
The field of Information retrieval (IR) is currently undergoing a transformative shift, at least partly due to the emerging applications of generative AI to information access. In this talk, we will deliberate on the sociotechnical implications of generative AI for information access. We will argue that there is both a critical necessity and an exciting opportunity for the IR community to re-center our research agendas on societal needs while dismantling the artificial separation between the work on fairness, accountability, transparency, and ethics in IR and the rest of IR research. Instead of adopting a reactionary strategy of trying to mitigate potential social harms from emerging technologies, the community should aim to proactively set the research agenda for the kinds of systems we should build inspired by diverse explicitly stated sociotechnical imaginaries. The sociotechnical imaginaries that underpin the design and development of information access technologies needs to be explicitly articulated, and we need to develop theories of change in context of these diverse perspectives. Our guiding future imaginaries must be informed by other academic fields, such as democratic theory and critical theory, and should be co-developed with social science scholars, legal scholars, civil rights and social justice activists, and artists, among others.
Slack (or Teams) Automation for Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Soluti...Jeffrey Haguewood
Sidekick Solutions uses Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutions Apricot) and automation solutions to integrate data for business workflows.
We believe integration and automation are essential to user experience and the promise of efficient work through technology. Automation is the critical ingredient to realizing that full vision. We develop integration products and services for Bonterra Case Management software to support the deployment of automations for a variety of use cases.
This video focuses on the notifications, alerts, and approval requests using Slack for Bonterra Impact Management. The solutions covered in this webinar can also be deployed for Microsoft Teams.
Interested in deploying notification automations for Bonterra Impact Management? Contact us at sales@sidekicksolutionsllc.com to discuss next steps.
Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey 2024 by 91mobiles.pdf91mobiles
91mobiles recently conducted a Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey in which we asked over 3,000 respondents about the TV they own, aspects they look at on a new TV, and their TV buying preferences.
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportAlan Dix
Paper presented at SYNERGY workshop at AVI 2024, Genoa, Italy. 3rd June 2024
https://alandix.com/academic/papers/synergy2024-epistemic/
As machine learning integrates deeper into human-computer interactions, the concept of epistemic interaction emerges, aiming to refine these interactions to enhance system adaptability. This approach encourages minor, intentional adjustments in user behaviour to enrich the data available for system learning. This paper introduces epistemic interaction within the context of human-system communication, illustrating how deliberate interaction design can improve system understanding and adaptation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate the potential of epistemic interaction to significantly advance human-computer interaction by leveraging intuitive human communication strategies to inform system design and functionality, offering a novel pathway for enriching user-system engagements.
Transcript: Selling digital books in 2024: Insights from industry leaders - T...BookNet Canada
The publishing industry has been selling digital audiobooks and ebooks for over a decade and has found its groove. What’s changed? What has stayed the same? Where do we go from here? Join a group of leading sales peers from across the industry for a conversation about the lessons learned since the popularization of digital books, best practices, digital book supply chain management, and more.
Link to video recording: https://bnctechforum.ca/sessions/selling-digital-books-in-2024-insights-from-industry-leaders/
Presented by BookNet Canada on May 28, 2024, with support from the Department of Canadian Heritage.
Accelerate your Kubernetes clusters with Varnish CachingThijs Feryn
A presentation about the usage and availability of Varnish on Kubernetes. This talk explores the capabilities of Varnish caching and shows how to use the Varnish Helm chart to deploy it to Kubernetes.
This presentation was delivered at K8SUG Singapore. See https://feryn.eu/presentations/accelerate-your-kubernetes-clusters-with-varnish-caching-k8sug-singapore-28-2024 for more details.
Empowering NextGen Mobility via Large Action Model Infrastructure (LAMI): pav...
PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)
1. Global economy watch
October 2013
Beyond the numbers: The
human cost of the crisis
economies is pushing up long-term
market interest rates, which is
having a knock-on impact on
funding costs around the world.
At a glance
In October, policymakers from
around the world will gather in
Washington DC to take stock of
global economic prospects. For
the first time since 2010 the
prognosis for a sustained
recovery in the advanced
economies is expected to be
positive.
•
But, despite an improving picture
among advanced economies, the
global economy is still only expect to
grow by around 3% next year.
Labour markets in advanced
economies remain bruised. In
this edition, we have taken a look at
the human cost of the crisis. Since
the second quarter of 2008,
advanced economies have lost
around 7 million jobs. Put into
context, in the same period, the
world economy created 37 million
jobs. In other words, for every job
lost in the West, the emerging
economies have managed to create
around six – about 44 million in
total.
•
Policymakers and businesses
are adjusting to these new
realities. On the plus side, greater
spare capacity in advanced
economies has meant that the Fed
and other central banks have been
able to pump large volumes of
liquidity into markets while
simultaneously keeping inflation
under reasonable control. On the
flipside, workers, particularly those
in the US, who remain unemployed
for longer periods are prone to losing
some of their skills. US businesses
are therefore having to dedicate
more resources to training newly
hired staff, which could impact their
margins, especially in the shortterm.
Specifically, we expect the Eurozone
will continue to pick up gradually,
posting average growth of just under
1% in 2014. The US is projected to
expand by a respectable 2.7% next
year.
•
•
•
This is because emerging economies
like India, Indonesia, Turkey, South
Africa and Brazil have run into
trouble as capital has started to flow
back to the advanced economies.
This complicates the picture for the
policymakers meeting in
Washington.
•
At the same time, downside risks for
the advanced economies are also
apparent. The Eurozone is still in the
early stages of setting up its future
banking infrastructure. The US is
gearing up for further budget and
debt ceiling negotiations. And
improved growth in advanced
Unemployment rate (% of
labourforce)
Fig 1: Unemployment remains stubbornly high in advanced economies
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Global
Advanced economies
Emerging markets
Source: OECD, ILO, National statistical authorities
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2. Economic update
The Fed keeps the taps on for a little longer
0
0.5
We expect the currencies of the
vulnerable emerging economies to
Source: Datastream (as at 20th September, 2013)
come under less pressure in the
coming weeks. This however will be
short-lived, as good economic news
in the US will increase the likelihood
of a gradual monetary tightening.
Figure 3 highlights the above points.
Housing activity started plummeting
four quarters ahead of the 2008
downturn. Specifically US housing
starts dropped by almost 80% during
the financial crisis. The UK recorded a
55% dip. The Eurozone however
recorded only a modest drop. This was
partly because the excess housing stock
was concentrated in a few peripheral
economies like Spain and Ireland,
rather than the larger economies of
Germany and France.
Government spending
acting as a cushion
Figure 4 shows that in the aftermath of
the financial crisis in 2010, housing
activity started growing again at a
moderate pace. Meanwhile, GDP
bounced back much more aggressively
than our leading indicator would
2 Global economy watch October 2013
In the UK for example, government
spending increased from around 40%
of GDP in 2005 to 47% in 2009.
Back to normality?
However, recent data suggests that
government spending as a proportion
of total spending in the economy is
reverting back to historic level . The
IMF for example estimates US
government spending will gradually
revert back to its pre-crisis level of 40%
of GDP by 2017.
At the same time, housing construction
continues to grow at a modest rate and
is expected to do so as prices recover.
Both of these facts signal that we are
seeing a resumption of consumption
led growth, which is expected to lend
support to the recovery in the future.
Our Global Consumer Index
(summarised on page 4) also supports
this view. It has been growing at its
fastest rate since its inception a year
ago.
100
80
60
40
US
UK
Q1 2013
Q1 2012
Q1 2011
20
Q1 2010
This was because of the change in the
underlying sources of growth in the
economy from one fuelled by
household construction (and
consumption) to one supported by
government consumption.
120
Eurozone
Source: Datastream, PwC analysis
Fig 4: Housing starts and GDP growth for selected
economies
110
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Housing starts
Real GDP y-o-y growth in advanced
economies (%)
Our reading of the data
suggest.
1
Fig 3: Housing starts2 in US, UK and Eurozone3
Q1 2009
A focus on housing
House construction picking up is good
news for major economies
Construction activity in the housing
market is typically regarded as a
leading indicator of economic growth.
Depending on the size and scale of the
industry, housing construction can also
have a significant impact on GDP
growth. For example, our analysis of
historic numbers shows that in 2004,
household construction boosted US
GDP by 50 basis points.
UK
Q1 2008
•
Throughout October, we will also be
monitoring how emerging market
policymakers react to the Fed
decision.
Q1 2007
Unemployment rate: The US
economy continues to have an
unemployment rate above the 6.5%
target set by the Fed, indicating that
spare capacity exists. As our analysis
on the next page shows, most
advanced economies’ labour
•
US
Q1 2006
•
Market interest rates: Positive
economic news from the major
economies in the world have pushed
up market interest rates,
counteracting the effects of
monetary easing (see Figure 2). For
business, this has translated into
higher funding costs and lower
margins, which at worst could choke
off the recovery.
Q1 2005
•
Germany
2005 Q1
2005 Q4
2006 Q3
2007 Q2
2008 Q1
2008 Q4
2009 Q3
2010 Q2
2011 Q1
2011 Q4
2012 Q3
2013 Q2
2014 Q1
Inflation aside, here are a few issues
that help explain the Fed’s decision:
Fiscal squeeze: In October, US
lawmakers will need to approve an
extension of the debt ceiling and the
US budget. The impact of past
inaction has meant that
sequestration — automatic cuts to
the Federal Budget — have reduced
one percentage point off US growth
this year.
Index of housing starts
(Q1 2005 = 100)
•
Fig 2: On the back of good economic news, long-term
market rates were on the rise….
Change in 10 year sovereign bond
yields since 01/06 (percentage
points)
markets still bear the scars from the
crisis and have not yet recovered
Housing starts index in advanced
economies (Q1 2005 = 100)
In September, the Federal Reserve
announced it will wait for more
evidence on the progress of the recovery
before adjusting the pace of its
asset purchases.
GDP growth
Source: Datastream, PwC analysis
2 Housing start is defined at the point where the foundation of a house
is laid.
3 Eurozone economies comprise Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
3. Advanced economies back to modest
growth with visible scars on show
Fig 5: Where have all the jobs gone?
Spain
United States
Japan
Greece
Italy
UK
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Mexico
Indonesia
China
-5 -2.5 0 2.5 5 7.5 10 12.5 15 17.5
Millions of jobs created/lost since 2008 Q2
Source: OECD, ILO, National statistical agencies
Fig 6: Which countries are the largest employers of the world?
China
India
7 million jobs lost in
advanced economies
Our analysis of the data shows that
advanced economies have borne the
brunt of the financial meltdown.
Specifically, since the second quarter
of 2008, advanced economies have
lost 7 million jobs. The US, Japan and
the peripheral Eurozone economies
together shed more than 9 million
jobs. Surprisingly, Spain’s job losses
topped those of the US, which is the
largest economy in the world.
On the bright side, Germany,
Australia, Canada and the UK are the
only major advanced economies
bucking the trend, and have created
around 3.5 million jobs since Q2
2008.
US
Indonesia
Russia
Represents 50 million people
Note the India figure ignores the large informal sector
Source: OECD, ILO, National statistical agencies
Fig 7: The average duration of unemployment in the US has hit
historic highs
As a result, unemployment rates
remain stubbornly high; Figure 1 (see
page 1) shows that the average across
the major advanced economies has
been higher than 8% for more than
four years.
44 million jobs created in
emerging markets
On a global* scale, the picture is much
more positive as over the same period
the world has created a total of 37
million jobs. A third of these were
created in the last 12 months, which is
consistent with our view of a pickup in
global economic activity increasingly
led by the US and other advanced
economies (see September Global
Economy Watch).
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Average duration of unemployment (in
months)
In October, high-ranking
policymakers will gather in
Washington D.C to assess the
prospects for the global economy at
the annual World Bank-IMF meeting.
At a time when economic optimism is
gaining momentum in the advanced
economies, it’s easy to focus on the
economic numbers and ignore the
human cost of the crisis. So what does
our analysis show on the status of the
global job market?
United States
Source: OECD
Europe
Bringing together the analysis, we can
see that, for every job that has been
lost in the advanced economies, six
new ones have been created in the
emerging world - around 44 million
net new jobs in total in emerging
economies since the second quarter of
2008. China, Indonesia and Mexico
lead the job creation scoreboard,
reflecting the relative dynamism of
these markets. As a result,
unemployment in these economies is
low, averaging only around 5%.
At the same time, emerging
economies are increasingly employing
a greater number of people. For
example our analysis points out that
Turkey hosts more jobs than Italy and
now ranks as the 11th largest
employer in the world (up from
13th in 2008).
So what are the implications of these
trends and changes for businesses and
policymakers?
Inflation pressures
subdued because of spare
capacity
First, let’s focus on the good news.
High unemployment (or spare
capacity) has presented policymakers
in most advanced economies with the
opportunity to deploy unprecedented
stimulus without having to worry too
much about inflation (although the
UK is a partial exception to this).
For example, the IMF projects that G7
output in 2013 will be around 3%
below the level at which inflation
pressures build in the economy (the
‘potential’ level of output). Had the
labour market been in a better state,
then the scope for keeping monetary
policy so loose would be much less in
both the US and the Eurozone.
US businesses vulnerable
to longer unemployment
duration
But it’s not all good news. As the
economy has taken a longer time to
recover in most advanced markets,
workers have been unemployed for a
longer period of time. Our analysis
shows that, in 2012, an average outof-work person in the OECD took
around 10 months to find a job. This
is significantly higher than the
historic average of around 7 months.
The US seems to be one of the most
vulnerable major economies to this
change. In 1990, the average duration
of US unemployment was 2.8 months.
In 2012, it was three times higher. The
delay in finding a job is projected to
have a detrimental impact on the
skills of those looking for jobs, which
means that US-based companies will
have to spend more resources than
usual to train newly hired workers. In
the short-term this could have a
particularly adverse impact on labour
intensive businesses.
* We have analysed the labour market of
the countries listed on page 4.These
economies cover more than 80% of
global GDP.
Global economy watch October 2013
3