Urban Transportation System

URBANTRANSPORTATION
PLANNING
(Subject Code: CV 707)
In the pursuance of
BACHELOR IN TECHNOLOGY
(CIVIL ENGINEERING)
COMPILED BY
NILESHKUMAR HAPALIYA

CHAPTER 1.
INTRODUCTION
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENMT
IN
TRANSPORTATION

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HISTORY OF TRANSPORTATION-BACKGROUND
QUESTIONS
1. What is Transportation?
2. Why transportation is necessary?
3. Which are the problems faced by the human beings in the absence of
transportation?
4. If mode is the medium of transportation, enlist various modes of
transportation.
5. Based on your primary teaching which invention has revolutionized
transportation?
6. What are the developments of transportation in pre-historic period and
historic period
7. What are recent advances in each mode of transportation?
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HIGHLIGHTS OF TRANSPORTATION
DEVELOPMENT IN PRE-HISTORIC PERIOD
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Walk (For food and Shelter) Heavy loads (By back, head or shoulders)
TRANPORTATION OF GOODS BY LITTER

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DEVELOPMENT IN PRE-HISTORIC PERIOD (Cont..)
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START OF WATER TRANPORTATION- WOODEN PLANK

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HIGHLIGHTS OF TRANSPORTATION DEVELOPMENT IN
PRE-HISTORIC PERIOD (Cont..)
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 The invention of wheel facilitated use of vehicles for transportation and
hence the needs for roads for smooth and fast movement of these
vehicles arose.
 Of all the ancient peoples, the Romans were the finest road builders.
 Beginning in 4th century B.C., the Romans build smooth, hard surfaced
roads wherever they ruled from England to North Africa.
 This led to the saying “All roads lead to Rome.”

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HIGHLIGHTS OF TRANSPORTATION :
DEVELOPMENT IN HISTORIC PERIOD
Up to 10th Century :
1. Progress in transportation came to halt after the fall of the Roman
Empire in the A.D. 400’s.
2. In 900’s Rigid horse collar and iron horse shoes were invented.
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DEVELOPMENT IN HISTORIC PERIOD (Cont..)
From 10th to 16th Century :
1. The coach, which enabled groups of people to travel together, was
invented in Hungary in the 1400’s. Stagecoach service began in
Europe in the 1600’s which traveled a regular route, stopping at set
points, or stages, to change horses and allow passengers to eat and
rest.
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1. The Greeks built a powerful fleet (type of vehicle for
transportation) of galleys for sea trading.
2. Compass was probably used by Europeans for navigation
around 1200 A.D.
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Non-Motorized Modes of Transport:
1. Stagecoaches were used in around 1756 for passenger transportation
in USA
2. Conestoga wagon drawn by two or six horses were used in around
1750 for goods transportation in USA.
3. Kirckpatric Macmilan, a blacksmith in Scotland invented first bicycle
with foot pedals. However earlier tiers for bicycle were wooden or
metals then solid rubber were added in 1880. Finally the air –filled
tires were added after 1880.
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Motorized Modes of Transport:
1. Steam engine was invented by James Watt in 17th century.
2. In 1825 the first steam powered rail were opened in England.
3. In 1870 the first ocean liners for passenger travel were built.
4. During the early1900’s Henry Ford of Detroit, Michigan
introduced the Model T Car.
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20th Century :
1. In 1903, Wright brothers made the world’s first successful
engine-powered flight and the airplane era had begun.
2. First commercial airline Douglas DC-3 was in operation in 1936
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Wright Brothers’ Flight Trial Douglas DC-3 Commercial airline

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HIGHLIGHTS OF ADVANCES IN
TRANSPORTATION/TRANSPORTATION TODAY
Road Transportation:
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TRANSPORTATION/TRANSPORTATION TODAY (Cont..)
Rail Transportation:
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Waterway Transportation:
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Airway Transportation:
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Space Transportation:
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ACTIVITY QUESTIONS
1. What was the only mode of transportation in beginning?
2. What were the main modes of transportation in prehistoric
period?
3. How many years were required from evolution of wheel to final
shape of wheel?
4. What is the development in transportation up to 10th century in
historic period?
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ACTIVITY QUESTIONS (Cont..)
5. What is the development in transportation between 10th and 16th
century in historic period?
6. Write separately the development of motorized and non-
motorized transportation from 17th to 19th century in historic
period?
7. What is the major invention in 20th century led to air
transportation revolution?
8. Which are the advances in recent transportation for various
modes? Describe briefly.
9. Differentiate travel pattern and mode by you and your great
grandfathers.
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CHAPTER 1.
INTRODUCTION
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

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TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM-BACKGROUND
QUESTIONS
1. What are the various modes of transportation?
2. What are the various modes of transportation of Rajkot
city?
3. According to you what is transportation system?
4. Which are the components of any mode?
5. Which are the required parameters for any mode for to
run?
6. What are the attributes of each mode of transport?
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TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM-FLOW CHART
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TYPICAL URBAN TRANPORTATION MODES
 Foot
 Bicycle
 Motorized two wheeler
 Personal car
 Private taxi (M.F.W &M.Th. W.)
 Shared taxi(M.F.W & M.Th. W.)
 Bus
 Rail
 Ferry (like the state of Kerala, the state Assam and so on;)
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RANKING OF VARIOUS MODES-USER’S POINT OF
VIEW
1. Speed
2. Accessibility
3. Cost
4. Level of Comfort
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RANKING OF VARIOUS MODES-PLANNER’S
POINT OF VIEW
1. Air Pollution
2. Energy Consumption
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RANKING OF VARIOUS MODES- CHART VIEW
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1. According to transportation system terminology who is the
user and who is the planner?
2. What are the users’ priority and planners’ priorities?
3. What is accessibility? If you are the user in transportation
system how would you rank different modes of
transportation of Rajkot city based on accessibility, cost
and comfort?
4. Rank different modes of transportation based on pollution
and energy consumption in planner’s perspective.

CHAPTER 1.
INTRODUCTION
TRANSPORTATION AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ACTIVITES

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HISTORY OF TRANSPORTATION-BACKGROUND
QUESTIONS
1. What is socioeconomics?
2. What is Travel Demand?
3. What are the factors affecting Travel Demand?
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC ACTIVITES
 Socioeconomics; also known as socio-
economics or social economics is the social
science that studies how economic activity
affects and is shaped by social processes.
 In general it analyzes how societies progress,
stagnate, or regress because of their local or
regional economy, or the global economy.
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TRANSPORT AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC ACTIVITES
 Study of transport and socioeconomic is the
study of how socioeconomic activities influence
the transportation parameters and the study
about impact of transportation to the society.
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TRAVEL DEMAND
 The need or requirement for specific amount of
travel or transportation activities may be termed
as travel demand
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FACTORS AFFECTING TRAVEL DEMAND
 Demographic and Social Factors
1. Population
2. Household
3. Age
4. Cultural Aspects
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FACTORS AFFECTING TRAVEL DEMAND
 Economic Factors
1. Employment
2. Income
3. Vehicle Ownership
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POPULATION
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POPULATION
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POPULATION TREND
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Global Urbanisation Trend
Region
Population in billion Percentage of
Urban
Population
Urban Rural
2003 2030 2003 2030 2003 2030
World 3.044 4.945 3.258 3.185 48.3 60.8
More Developed Regions 0.896 1.015 0.307 0.228 74.5 81.7
Less Developed Region 2.147 3.930 2.951 2.958 42.1 57.1
Least Developed Region 0.191 0.544 0.527 0.713 26.6 43.3
Source : United Nations Organization (UNO)- Population Statistics (2003)

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HOUSEDHOLD
 Let us consider two cities, one city in a
developing country, another city in developed
country.
 More number or households, it is likely that
more travel demand
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AGE
 Let us consider two similar cities, in one city the
average age of the community is higher than the
average age of community in another city which
city will have more intensity of travel, more
demand for transportation.
 Same population, but average age is different,
one city higher average age, another city as
relatively less average age.
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CULTURAL ASPECTS
 VERY ACCRODING TO COMMUNITY
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EMPLOYMENT
 More the employees in a society, more will be
the demand for transportation at least for
work trips and related activities.
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INCOME
 More the income, more will be the demand
for transportation mainly because the
increase of income might result in higher
proportion of disposable income.
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VEHICLE OWNERSHIP
 It is obvious that household having high
vehicle ownership would have higher amount
of travel demand.
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VEHICLE OWNERSHIP
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URBAN TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR OVER TIME
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ACTIVITY QUESTIONS
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1. What are the main reasons for urbanization?
2. Is the process of urbanization is good or bad in
societal view?
3. What is the solution to overcome the bad effects of
urbanization in transportation point of view?
4. Why study of so much socioeconomic parameters
needed for Urban Transportation Planning?

CHAPTER 1.
INTRODUCTION
INCREASED TRAVEL DEMAND:
PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS WITH DIFFERENT
APPROACHES AND TRANSPORTATION
PLANNING

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BACKGROUND QUESTIONS
1. How increased travel demand can be measured?
2. What are the possible problems due to increase in travel
demand?
3. What is the solution to above problems in your views?
4. What do you mean conventional approaches and
nonconventional or advanced approaches to the solution of
the transportation problems?
5. What is planning? Why transportation planning is
necessary?
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TRANSPORTATION PROBLEM, APPROACH AND
SOLUTIONS
Problem Solutions Conventional
Approach
Operational Approach
with ITS
Lack of
Mobility and
Accessibility
 Provide user-
friendly
access to
quality
transportatio
n service
 Expand
fixed route
transit and
Para transit
services
 Radio and
TV traffic
reports
 Multi model pre-trip and
en route traveler
information services
 Real-time response to
changing demand
 Personalized public
transportation services
 Enhanced fare card
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SOLUTIONS (Cont..)
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Approach
Operational Approach
with ITS
Disconnected
Transportation
Modes
 Improve
Intermodalit
y
 Construct
Intermodal
Connections
 Regional Transportation
Management Systems
Information clearing
house
 Disseminate multi model
information pre-trip and
en-route

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SOLUTIONS (Cont..)
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Approach
Operational Approach with ITS
Disconnected
Transportation Modes
 Improve
Intermodality
 Construct
Intermodal
Connections
Management Systems
 Regional Transportation Information
clearing house
 Disseminate multi model information
pre-trip and en-route
Problem Solutions Conventional Approach Operational Approach with ITS
Crashes,
Injuries
and
Fatalities
 Improve
Safety
 Improve roadway
geometry and sight
distance
 Grade-separate
crossings
 Driver training
 Install traffic signals
wherever required
 Reduce speed limits
 Post warnings in
problem areas
 Partially and fully automated vehicle control
systems
 Vehicle condition monitoring system
 Driver condition monitoring system
 Advanced grade crossing system
 Automated detection of adverse weather and
road conditions, vehicle warning and road
view notifications
 Automated emergency notifications

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PLANNING
 The process of working out beforehand, a scheme, program, or
method for the accomplishment of an objective is termed as
planning.
 Let us say a household is planning to make a weekend shopping
trip, the objective is to buy our requirement for a week or month
is the objective of household. Immediately the next step before
making the trip could be to understand the requirement then,
quantify the requirement. Identify the available locations of
these quantified requirement say grocery, vegetables or textile
items or jewelry items and so on.
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PLANNING (Cont..)
 Quantify and find out the transportation requirement should
have to go while transit or use your own vehicle and so on. And
then plan the sequence of mobility, where to go fast then, where
to go next and so on and finally, deciding about the timing, time
of start and time of finish. This is what a household will do.
 What does a transportation system planner is doing or will do
the same process for the city as a whole city comprises of
household.
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PLANNING (Cont..)
 So, one should understand the activity pattern of
household, their desire, their travel pattern, aggregate
the whole process you will automatically end up with
understanding of the travel pattern in an urban area.
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URBAN TRANPORTATION PLANNING
Urban transportation planning is the process of:
1. Understanding the factors influencing the demand for
urban travel.
2. Development of relationships between the factors and the
travel demand
3. Use of the relationships to predict the future demand for
travel and the resulting transport infrastructure needs.
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SCOPE OF URBAN TRANPORTATION PLANNING
Urban transportation planning is the process of:
1. Introduction
2. Transport planning process
3. Trip generation analysis
4. Modal split
5. Trip Distribution
6. Route Assignment
7. Transportation Surveys
8. Transport Related Land-Use Models
9. Urban Structure
10. Urban Goods Movement
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ACTIVITY QUESTIONS
1. What are the short-term planning, midterm planning and long
term planning in the context of urban transportation problems
and issues and where are their specific applications?
2. In your view, what transportations problems of your city can be
solved by effective transportation planning?
3. What is the role of transportation planning in transportation
planning solutions?
4. What is scope of transportation planning?
5. What is the stage wise transportation planning?
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CHAPTER 1.
INTRODUCTION
Concepts of Urban Transportation System
Planning and System,
Systems Engineering Process: Stepwise solution
to the problems emanating from
Socioeconomic Environment

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1. According to you knowledge of which subject;
science or mathematics or both is required for
stepwise solution for urban transportation planning?
2. What are the various steps for system engineering
process for the problem of the transportation in the
context of planning? Narrate them in chronological
order.
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Urban Transportation System Planning : Concepts
 Any infrastructure developed in transportation system
has to meet the demand for transportation over a long
period of time, may be for about 20 to 30 years.
 To get the basic input for the design and construction
of these infrastructural facilities, we shall have some
idea about the total traffic that will be making use of
such facilities in future.
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 This information can be obtained only through
comprehensive systematic transportation system
planning process.
 That is how transport system planning
is very important in the provision of
transport infrastructure facilities.
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 Urban transportation planning is an activity that has
been going on for centuries, shaping cities and the
ways that community lives.
 The transportation system planning to the specific
problem deals with scientific principles for the
quantification and proposed solutions by
accommodating emotions, cultural aspects and
intellect of the urban dwellers in the planning process.
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 Hence, transportation system planning process is
treated as part art and part science.
 Transport planning studies have been conducted in a
large number of urban areas throughout the world.
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 With the available information and available data,
transportation planning should predict a future urban
land use (for Horizon year) and transport system
condition reasonably accurately for the probable
effective solution for the planned region.
 Urban land space is used for specific purposes is
termed as type of land use.
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LANDUSE
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COMMON TYPES OF URBAN LAND USES
Residential Institutional Commercial
Industrial Agricultural Recreational

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LANDUSE CHANGE PATTERN
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 Land use pattern change which will help us to
understand the possible trip production and trip
attraction rates in an urban area and decide about
provision of mass transit systems connecting these
major activities centers.
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THE SYSTEMS- ENGINEERING PROCESS
 Land use pattern change which will help us to
understand the possible trip production and trip
attraction rates in an urban area and decide about
provision of mass transit systems connecting these
major activities centers.
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 For selection of the optimal alternatives for
implementation and to understand the planning
process in detail, understanding of the basics of the
systems engineering process is necessary.
 Systems engineering process is a process which
explains a steps related to providing solution to the
problems emanating from socioeconomic environment.
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 System: A system may be defined as a set of components
that is in such a manner as to direct the action of the
system under inputs towards specific goals and objectives.
Arranging of these components in such a way that when an
input is given and the output given by the system would
satisfy the set objective.
 System is Transportation system in Urban Transportation
Planning Context.
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 Environment: An environment may be defined as a set
of all components outside a system, all components
outside a system which both influences a behavior of
the system and which in turn is influenced by the
behavior of the system.
 Environment is the socio economic environment of the
urban area in this context.
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ACTIVITY QUESTIONS
1. Why one should learn existing and future change land use
pattern in the context of transportation planning?
2. What is the role of each land use in transportation
panning context?
3. How science and art play roles in urban transportation
planning?
4. What type of information and data are necessary for
transportation system engineering process?
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URBAN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
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URBAN TRANPORTATION SYSTEM

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URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION
SYSTEM
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URBAN PASSENGER TRANPORTATION SYSTEM

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URBAN GOODS, PUBLIC & INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
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URBAN GOODS TRANPORTATION SYSTEM
URBAN PUBLIC TRANPORTATION SYSTEM
URBAN INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC TRANPORTATION SYSTEM

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URBAN PERSONAL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
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URBAN PERSONAL TRANPORTATION SYSTEM

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PROBLEM DEFINITION
 The aim of the problem definition step is to define the
interface between the system and its environment and to
identify a rule or criterion which may be used by the
planner to identify the optimal system.
 The pertinent features of a system problem definition may
be developed in a concise a unified form as shown in the
flow chart, 1st important is system objectives, 2nd system
constraints, 3rd system inputs, 4th system outputs, 5th value
functions and 6th and last decision criterion.
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PROBLEM DEFINITION (Cont..)
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OBJECTIVES :
 In the context of urban transport system, it is appropriate
to refer to the overall goals of the urban community and to
the objectives that must be perceived by a transport system
to facilitate the community goals to be realized.
 Frequently the terms goal and objective are used
synonymously, but, for the purpose of this study they are
used in the sense in which they are defined here.
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GOAL:
 A goal may be defined as at end to which a plan tends.
 In this sense, a goal may be conceived as an ideal
expressed in abstract terms that is sought after
continuously and not an end state that can be reached.
 Goals may be thought of as a set of statements that
attempt to convey to the planner and the image of the ideal
system and in this way provide him or her with overall
direction.
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GOAL:
 In this regard, it is to be noted that the urban
community goals should not violate to the urban policy
normally said by the government.
 By urban policy, we mean the pursuit of a carefully
defined set of goals. A gain goal in the form of policy,
the overriding goals of a society are contained in its
national objectives or goals.
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OBJECTIVES:
 An objective may be conceived for understood as a
lower order goal which at least conceptually is capable
of being measured.
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STANDARD:
 A standard is lower order than objective and represents
a condition that is capable of both measurement and
attainment.
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EXAMPLES OF GOAL, OBJECTIVES AND
STANDARDS
Goal:
 Maximize mobility of people and goods.
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STANDARDS (Cont..)
Related Objectives:
1. Minimize travel time
2. Minimize travel cost
3. Provide adequate frequency of service
4. Provide adequate system capacity
5. Provide adequate system safety
6. Provide adequate system reliability
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STANDARDS (Cont..)
Related Standards:
1. The travel time, by public transport between major
activities centers not exceed 30 minutes.
2. The travel cost by public transport not to exceed 15 % of
the cost of travel by private transport.
3. The frequency of public transport service on any route to
be not less than 3 per hour.
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STANDARDS (Cont..)
Related Standards:
4. The peak hour occupies public transport vehicles not to
exceed permissible limits.
5. Fatal accidents involving public transport vehicles to be
less than 1% of the total.
6. At least 95 % of public transport operation to be as per
published time schedule.
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STANDARDS (Cont..)
Related Standards:
4. The peak hour occupies public transport vehicles not to
exceed permissible limits.
5. Fatal accidents involving public transport vehicles to be
less than 1% of the total.
6. At least 95 % of public transport operation to be as per
published time schedule.
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PROBLEM DEFINITION- CONSTRAINTS
CONSTRAINTS:
 The constraints of a system may be defined as those
characteristics of the environment that limit the extent
of feasible solution.
 So, they are nothing but the characteristics of the
environment;
 Examples of constraints are Financial and Political
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PROBLEM DEFINITION- INPUTS
INPUTS:
 Inputs to a system may be described as those
characteristics of the environment that the system must
transform into outputs in the light the system objectives.
 The inputs to an urban transport system are demand for
the movement of people and goods between urban activity
centers.
 There are two dimensions of urban travel demand one is
spatial patterns and time patterns.
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PROBLEM DEFINITION- OUTPUTS
OUTPUTS:
 The outputs of the system may be defined as those
characteristics of a system that influence the
environment directly; and that are a function of the
system inputs and the system properties.
 The magnitude of the system outputs, determine the
degree to which the system objectives are fulfilled.
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PROBLEM DEFINITION- OUTPUTS (Cont..)
OUTPUTS:
 A major output of the transport system is a travel times
that it produces between various parts of an urban
area. And other important outputs are of the transport
system or the cost of travel and accident rates. And
several other outputs can be considered for example,
level of comfort available in a mode of transport in a
system that we are planning to introduce.
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PROBLEM DEFINITION- VALUE FUNCTION
VALUE FUNCTION :
 Value function may be defined as a procedure or
analytical tool for mapping the magnitude of an output
variable into units of value in which objectives are
measured.
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PROBLEM DEFINITION- DECISION CRITERION
DECISION CRITERION:
 A Decision criterion may be defined as a rule that
instructs the system planner how the individual
measures of value associated with system outputs and
financial resources required for the construction and
the operation of the system should be manipulated in
order to arrive at a single index of value for the system
to identify the optimal system.
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PROBLEM DEFINITION- DECISION CRITERION
(Cont..)
DECISION CRITERION:
 This involves in quantification of the total benefit and
cost and comparing the benefiting cost in each of the
alternatives and choosing the alternative which gives a
maximum different between the benefit and cost.
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INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SIX
COMPONENTS OF PROBLEM DEFINITION
PHASE
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ACTIVITY QUESTIONS
1. What are the factors governing for the formulation of any
transportation problem?
2. How objective can broadly classified?
3. Can any transportation issue solved without problem
definition?
4. Explain interrelationship between all components of
problem definition with real life or real transportation
problem context?
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1. From the shown flowchart what are the next steps
towards problem solution?
2. What are the various terms i.e. Solution Generation,
Solution Analysis, Evaluation and Choice,
Recommended Strategy and Implementation mean in
the context for the solution of Urban Transportation
Problems and what may be their exact scopes?
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SOLUTION GENERATION
 It is generation of an array of solutions, that satisfies
the previously established objectives to a lesser or
greater degree which does not violate the constraints.
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SOLUTION ANALYSIS
 The objective of this step is to predict the probable
operating state of each other alternative system, generated
in previous phase given expectation about the state of the
environment.
 In urban transportation planning the input magnitudes and
the behavior of the alternative systems are estimated
normally through use of a four phase process, consisting
of trip generation analysis, modal spilt analysis, trip
distribution analysis and traffic assignment analysis.
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EVLUATION AND CHOICE
 The aim of this step is to identify the alternative
system that satisfies the objective to the greatest extent.
The evaluation of each alternatives and choice the
optimal one the aim of this step is to identify the
alternative system that satisfies the objectives to the
greatest extent maximum possible extent.
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RECOMMENDED SRTRATEGY AND IMPLEMENTATION
 Optimum system for the horizon year is identified in
the previous phase and the aim of this phase is to
formulate this strategy for implementing the chosen
system throughout the planning period.
 So, that it goes on throughout the planning period as
per the fixed targets what should be completed on fifth
year, tenth year, fifteenth year, twenty year, and so on
and carry out the development as per the plan strategy.
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ACTIVITY QUESTIONS
1. Even after problem definition for transportation problems
how the transportation problems can be solved?
2. What is solution generation in system engineering
process and how solutions can be generated for the
specific transportation problems?
3. For generated solutions how solutions can be analyzed?
4. Explain evaluation and choice for system engineering
process.
5. Explain recommended strategy and implementation.
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CHAPTER 2.
TRIP GENERATION ANALYSIS

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1. What is trip?
2. How to quantify the number of trips from specific
area?
3. How urban area can be classified?
4. What is zone?
116

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URBAN AREA- DEFINITION
As per the Census Department of India, (2011) a place satisfying
the following criteria simultaneously is termed as an Urban Area.
i. Population not less than 5000
ii. Non-agricultural workers not less than 75 % of the total
workers.
iii. Population density not less than 400 per square kilometer.
Towns with population of 0.1 million and above are termed as
cities
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URBAN AREA BOUNDARY, LANDUSE PARCEL OR
TRAFFIC ZONE AND ZONE CENTROID
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SOLUTION ANALYSIS
119
Solution analysis phase involves four important steps;
1. Trip generation analysis
2. Model spilt analysis
3. Trip distribution analysis
4. Traffic assignment analysis.

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SEQUENCE OF ACTIVITIES IN TRANPORTATION
ANALYSIS
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TRIP GENERATION ANALYSIS
121
Trip may be defined as a one way movement from a
origin to a destination.
O D
Origin Destination
TRIP

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TRIP GENERATION ANALYSIS (Cont..)
 For transportation planning entire urban area to be divided into
smaller land use parcels named traffic zone and then fix the
points of origin as well as destination as zones centroid.
 In the urban context trip is the movement from one zone
centroid to another zone centroid.
 The principal task of trip generation analysis is to relate the
intensity of trip making i.e. number of trip made from one point
to several other points to and from land use parcels to measure
the type and the intensity of land use types of land uses.
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Two types of trip generation analysis are carried out
namely
1. Trip production analysis
2. Trip attraction analysis
123

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 Trip production refers to the trips generated by
residential zones where these trips may be trip origins
or trip destinations very important point to be
understood clearly so these are trip associated with
residential zones.
124

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 Trip attraction refers to the trips generated by activities
at the non-home end of trips.
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 Urban travel demands made up off a number of different
trip types that have specific spatial and temporal
characteristics.
 The trip may be primarily classified as
1. Home Based Trips (trips that have one trip end at the
household either the origin or destination)
2. Non-Home Based Trips (trips that have not any of the
end at the household)
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The classifications that have been used in major urban
transport planning studies for home based trips are:
1. Work trips
2. Education trips
3. Shopping trips
4. Personal business trips
5. Work related business trips
6. Social and recreational trips
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MODELLING TRIP PRODUCTION
 The process of relating the trip produced by
households to the factors influencing trip production
by appropriate analytical technique is termed as trip
production modeling.
 The process of defining relationship between numbers
of trips produced to a set of influencing factors as trip
production modeling.
128

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MODELLING TRIP PRODUCTION (Cont..)
 The number of Trips produced depends on several factors
related to the household.
The most important household characteristics related to trip
production are:
1. Household size and composition
2. Number of employed persons
3. Number of students
4. Household income
5. Vehicle ownership etc.
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MODELLING TRIP PRODUCTION (Cont..)
 Modeling trip production in essence involves relating a
dependent variable namely trip production to set of
independent variables namely the factors representing
household characteristics.
 This relates a single depended variable to a set of
independent variables.
 The most analytical tools used for this purpose is
regression analysis.
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REGRESSION ANALYSIS
131
R2
=
∑ ye
2
∑ y2
Ye=a +bX
yd
a
X
Y
Least Squares Criterion
Y
y
Ye
yd
yd

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REGRESSION ANALYSIS (Cont..)
Assume that observation of the magnitude of a dependent variable Y
has been obtained for n magnitudes of an independent variable X and
that an equation of the form Ye = a + bX is to be fitted to the data.
Where,
Ye = Estimated values of the dependent variable, Y,
a = Intercept constant and
b = Regression coefficient
Ye = a + bX is the basic equation of simple linear regression.
132

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
133

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 It can also be written as Σy2 = Σyd
2 + Σye
2
Where,
 Σy2 = total sum of squares of the deviation of Y observations
about the mean value.
 Σyd
2 = sum of squares of deviation of the Y observations from the
regression line
 Σye
2 = the sum of square of the deviation of the estimated value
of Y (Ye) about the mean value namely regression sum of squares
 The residual sum of squares, Σyd
2 provides a measure of the
variability of Y observations about the regression values.
134

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
135

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 The ratio R2 may assume a magnitude between 0 and 1.
 For a regression for which R2 = 1, there would be no variation
remaining that is unexplained by the independent variable used
in the regression equation.
 When R2 = 0, the independent variable used would not explain
any of the observed variation in the dependent variable.
 The square root of the coefficient of determination is termed as
correlation coefficient.
136

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
137

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
138

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
139

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
140

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
141

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ACTIVITY QUESTIONS
1. What is regression analysis?
2. What are dependent variable and independent variables in
regression analysis in trip production context?
3. How regression analysis is relevant to trip production analysis?
142

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ACTIVITY EXAMPLE
Develop a trip production equation and calculate all the relevant
statistics to check the validity of the equation using the following
data:
143
Average household size 2 3 4 5 6
Average total trips made
per day
5 7 8 10 10
The value of t statistic for 3 degrees of freedom at 5 percent
level of significance is 2.353

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1. How number of trips originated from specific area can be
quantified?
2. What are the factors affecting trip production?
3. How the factors affecting trip production and number of
trips for the same can be mathematically correlated?
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MODELLING TRIP PRODUCTION- CATEGORY
ANALYSIS
 In the previous lecture, the numbers that we dealt with in
trip production model represented the average values,
zonal average values.
 Zonal averages, in fact may not be able to bring out all the
different characteristics of households in traffic zones.
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ANALYSIS (Cont..)
 The main principle involved here is, that the households
are taken as basic units of trip production, whereas in the
previous case, we consider traffic zones as units of trip
production whereas here, we take households as units of
trip production directly and categorize the households
based on their important characteristics that is why this
analysis is called category analysis.
146

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ANALYSIS (Cont..)
 Most traffic analysis zones tend to contain a mixture of
social and economic classes of people.
 The use of regression equations, based on aggregated
measures of zonal characteristics tends to submerge
important characteristics of travel demand.
 The basic unit of trip making is taken as household here,
whereas previously we consider the basic unit as traffic
zones.
147

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ANALYSIS (Cont..)
 Thus, trip-production modeling technique, which is based on
the household and its characteristics, is known as category
analysis or cross-classification analysis. Classifying
households across various factors, that is why it is also called
as cross-classification analysis.
 Category analysis is simply a technique for estimating the trip
production characteristics of households, which have been
sorted into a number of separate categories according to a set
of properties that characterize the household.
148

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ANALYSIS (Cont..)
Number of Motor
Vehicles
Number of persons per household
Total
1 2 3 4 5 6+
0
T 240 1080 1020 1000 880 1125 5345
H 800 1200 600 500 400 450 3950
P 0.30 0.90 1.70 2.00 2.20 2.40 1.35
1
T 301 4844 5781 7466 4956 4879 28227
H 344 2793 2472 3092 2046 1889 12636
P 0.875 1.73 2.34 2.41 2.42 2.58 2.23
2+
T 8 644 2220 3231 2424 3002 11521
H 5 294 717 1022 726 870 3634
P 1.6 2.16 3.10 3.16 3.34 3.45 3.17
Total
T 549 6568 9021 11697 8260 9006 45101
H 1149 4287 3789 4614 3172 3209 20220
P 0.48 1.53 2.38 2.54 2.60 2.80 2.23
T= Trip productions of households in category
H= Number of households in category
P= Trip production rate (per household) in category 149

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ANALYSIS (Cont..)
 Information of the type considered in table may be translated
easily into zonal trip production estimate.
 The number of households within each traffic zone that is
expected to fall within each cell of the matrix, each cell of the
matrix are estimated and multiplied by the trip rate and those
products, summed up, will give the zonal trip production.
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MODELLING TRIP ATTRACTION
Land-use characteristics influence the trip attraction rate in
urban areas.
 Common types of urban land uses are;
 1. Residential
 2. Commercial
 3. Industrial
 4. Institutional
 5. Recreational
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MODELLING TRIP ATTRACTION (Cont..)
Causal variables for trip attraction analysis are;
1. Retail trade floor area
2. Service and office floor area
3. Manufacturing and whole sale floor area
4. Number of employment opportunities in retail trade
5. Number of employment opportunities in service and
office
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MODELLING TRIP ATTRACTION (Cont..)
Causal variables for trip attraction analysis are;
6. Number of employment opportunities in
manufacturing and whole sale
7. College or school enrollment
8. Number of special activity centers like transport
terminals, railway stations, bus stands, and so on,
sport stadium, major recreational, cultural and
religious places.
153

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ACTIVITY QUESTIONS
1. Explain different methodical approach for trip
production analysis.
2. Which method is most suitable for trip production
modelling? Why?
3. Explain the various factors affecting trip attraction
with justification.
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ACTIVITY NUMERICAL EXAMPLE
Develop a trip attraction equation, using the data given in the table below.
Do the necessary statistical checks to assess the validity of the equation,
the table value of t for this case @5 % level of significance is 1.77.
155
Zone
No.
Number of employment
opportunities in the zones
No. of daily work
trips attracted
Manufacturing Service
1 60 30 190
2 40 100 290
3 30 20 150
4 20 30 120
5 100 20 250

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