This document discusses challenges in modern conflicts and the importance of integrated crisis communications. It notes that conflicts are now characterized by asymmetric strategies, multiple actors, and the media serving as a battlefield. New technologies have also changed communications. To address these challenges, the document recommends planning considerations for integrated crisis communications, including focusing on inspiring people, understanding audiences, and implementing communications as part of narrative-led comprehensive operations. The goal is to turn visions into impacts by influencing mass behavior through an integrated approach.

1. GEORGE C. MARSHALL CENTER
College of International and Security Studies
Garmisch – Partenkirchen, Germany
LTC ULRICH M. JANSSEN M.SC.
Email: ulrich.janssen@marshallcenter.org
LinkedIn: Ulrich Janßen
Twitter: @UliJanOgau
Phone: +49-8821-750-2658 · DSN 440-2658

2. Integrated Crisis Communications to influence mass
behaviour
TURNING VISION INTO IMPACT

3. Turning Vision Into Impact
The Changing Character of Conflict
Challenges in Behavioural Conflict
Integrated Crisis Communications
 Planning considerations to ensure C6
The desired effect … impact
 Integration in Narrative-led Comprehensive
Operations
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4. C2W
“Military Facts”
Peace Crisis/Conflict War Transition Post War Peace
“War is merely the continuation of politics by other means.”
Center of Gravity: enemy / enemy capabilities
Human Assistance
Civil Engagement
Reconstruction
(Marshall Plan)
IW(1970)
IO(1995-98)
Military Intervention in the Clausewitz’ian sense
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5. Ongoing significant changes since 1990
 Cause of conflict and related threats
 Geographic Focus
 Strategy and Complexity
 We, the enemy, and other actors
 Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures
 Role & Training Needs
 Technology & Information
 Communications
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6. Challenge #1
War of Choice
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7. Challenge #2
The changing character of crisis and conflict
23-Aug-14 7
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8. Challenge #3
Asymmetric Strategies in the early 21st Century
 Cyber Warfare / Anti-Satellite Warfare
 China/Russia
 RUS ./. EST, RUS ./. GEO
 Cyber Operations
 Nuclear Deterrence
 North Korea, Iran
 Global / Regional Terrorist Networks
 Al Qaeda, ISIS (ISIL, Daesh)
 Insurgencies
 Afghanistan, Iraq
 Hybrid War
 Ukraine, Syria
 Civil Unrest
 Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen
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9. Challenge #4
Multiple Actors in Crisis Management
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UN OSCE EU NATO NGO PMCGO
Single
Nation Others
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Uncoordinated action generate uncoordinated / unplanned effects
Crisis resolution hard to predict
Success depending on continuous presence and engagement of the IC
Long-term commitment required (high costs)
Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects

10. Challenge #5
Battlefield of the Media
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11. Challenge #6
Revolution in Technology and Enhanced Connectivity
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"The extent, depth, and
speed of the new global
media have created a
new species of effects...
The military must understand, anticipate, and
plan for this new dynamic."
(Margaret H. Belknap, 2001)

12. Challenge #7
The unknown unknowns
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14. “Military Facts”
Media
Social structures
Political / Civil
structures
Key Players/
Actors
Economy
Transportation
Finance
Culture
Communication
Grids
Peace Crisis/Conflict War Transition Post War Peace
People Tradition
ReligionLaw
Emotions
Education
“War is merely the failure of communications by other means.” (Clausewitz adapted by UJ)
Center of Gravity: people’s perception
Info Ops(> 2001)
StratCom(> 2009)
Military Intervention in Operations other than War
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15. Nature of Conflict
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16. Alvin Toffler
US Author and Futurologist
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17. NATO UNCLASSIFIED
Planning Consideration #1
The Product powered by the Power of Information
Political CivilMilitary Economic
UNCLASSIFIED
i = 0  1 i = 1  MPEC i > 1  exponentially adding value
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18. Planning Consideration #2
Restore Deterrence in the Social Age
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Deterrence in the
Social Age
Deterrence in the
Information Age
Deterrence in the
Nuclear Age

19. Planning Consideration #3
People in the Focus
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"An endless struggle will be
pursued between violence and
friendly persuasion...
And henceforth, the only
honourable course will be to stake
everything on a formidable
gamble - that WORDS are more
powerful than MUNITIONS."
Albert Camus (1913-1960)

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21. People in the Focus · the 3 questions
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22. Political marketing and the Power of the People
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“Don’t ask what
ideas are needed
to turn a situation
into good, ask
what YOU can do
to make good
ideas happen!”

25. Planning Consideration #3
Restore deterrence in the Social Age
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UNCLASSIFIED
“For to win one hundred
victories in one hundred
battles is not the acme of
skill. To subdue the
enemy without fighting is
the acme of skill.”

26. Planning Considerations #3
Successful Communications
Paul Watzlawik
One cannot NOT communicate!
Dave Waterman
EBC · Effects-based Communications
Marketing
AIDA · Attention, Interest, Desire, Action
Mark Laity
5S · Simplify, Shorten, Share, Sustain, and Staff
Chip & Dan Heath: Made to Stick
SUCCESS · Simple, Unexpected, Concrete, Credible,
Emotional, StorieS
G. Richard Shell, Mario Moussa: The Art of WOO
Using strategic persuasion to sell your ideas
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27. “Goods” to sell · Return on Invest
Threat reduction
Increased Security
Stability
Lasting Peace
Participation
Partnership
Higher Education
Improved Healthcare
Freedom
Happiness
“America is good in selling cars,
but fails in selling foreign policy
goals and objectives.”
Henry Kissinger in:
World Order (2014)
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28. Planning Consideration #4
Audience Analysis
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30. Perception
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31. The Challenge
Ensure C6
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33. Summary & Conclusion
Changing Character of Conflict
• War of Choice
• 21st Century Strategies &
Means
• Multiple Actors, Multiple Effects
• Technology changing
Communications
• Battlefield of the Media
• The Unknown Unknowns
• Behavioural Conflict
Planning Considerations
• [MxPxExC] powered by I
• Restoration of Deterrence in
the Social Age
• inspiring
• People in the Focus
• Walk the Talk
• Narrative-led Operations
• The 3 Questions
• Don’t tell them, inspire them
• Successful Communications
• Audience Analysis
• Motivation
• Perception
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34. Turning Vision Into Impact
Final thoughts
Narrative (values & beliefs)
Strategy (vision & objectives)
Implementation Planning (step-by-step, effect by effect)
Supporting Plans & Resources
Walk the Talk (activities; going public)
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35. Integrated Crisis Communications to influence mass
behaviour
TURNING VISION INTO IMPACT