Challenges and suggestions for comprehensive crisis communications planning in emergency situations and disaster relief

1. GEORGE C. MARSHALL CENTER
College of International and Security Studies
Garmisch – Partenkirchen, Germany
LTC ULRICH M. JANSSEN
Program Manager
Email: ulrich.janssen@marshallcenter.org
LinkedIn: Ulrich Janßen
Twitter: @UliJanOgau
Phone: +49-8821-750-2658 · DSN 440-2658

2. Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning
Ashgabat, August 2014
DISASTER PREPARED & RESPONSE WORKSHOP

3. Agenda
Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning
 The changing character of crisis and conflict
 Situation Awareness and Crisis Identification
 Challenges for Crisis Management
 Stakeholder Analysis
 Ensuring C5
 Information Sharing
 Cooperation & Coordination in all phases
Examples
Summary & Conclusion
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4. C2W
“Military Facts”
Peace Crisis/Conflict War Transition Post War Peace
“War is merely the continuation of politics by other means.” (Carl v. Clausewitz)
Center of Gravity: enemy / enemy capabilities
Humanitarian Assistance
Civil Engagement
Reconstruction
(Marshall Plan)
IW(1970)
IO(1990)
Military Role in Crisis Management
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5. Significant Changes since 1990
 Cause of conflict and related threats
 Geographic Focus
 Strategy and Complexity
 We, the enemy, and other actors
 Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures
 Role & Training Needs
 Technology & Information
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6. Challenge #1
The changing character of crisis and conflict
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7. Challenge #2
Asymmetric Spectrum of 21st Century Operations
 China/Russia
 Cyber Warfare / Anti-Satellite Warfare
 RUS ./. EST, RUS ./. GEO
 Cyber Operations
 North Korea, Iran
 Nuclear Deterrence
 Afghanistan / Iraq
 Insurgencies
 Al Qaeda
 Global Terrorist Network
 Civil unrest
 Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Yemen, Ukraine
 Natural Disaster
 Haiti, Japan, USA
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8. Challenge #3
Multiple Actors in Crisis Management
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UN OSCE EU NATO NGO PMCGO
Single
Nation Others
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Uncoordinated action generate uncoordinated / unplanned effects
Crisis resolution hard to predict
Success depending on continuous presence and engagement of the IC
Long-term commitment required (high costs)
Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects

9. Challenge #4
Battlefield of the Media
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10. Challenge #5
Revolution in Technology and Enhanced Connectivity
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"The extent, depth, and
speed of the new global
media have created a
new species of effects...
The military must understand, anticipate, and
plan for this new dynamic."
(Margaret H. Belknap, 2001)

11. Challenge #6
The unknown unknowns
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12. “Military Facts”
Media
Social structures
Political / Civil
structures
Key Players/
Actors
Economy
Transportation
Finance
Culture
Communication
Grids
Peace Crisis/Conflict War Transition Post War Peace
People Tradition
ReligionLaw
Emotions
Education
“War is merely the failure of communications by other means.” (Clausewitz adapted by UJ)
Center of Gravity: people’s perception
Info Ops(2000)
StratCom(2009)
Military Engagement in 21st Century Crisis
Management
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13. 23-Aug-14 13
Alvin Toffler
US Author and Futurologist

14. Crisis Prevention / Disaster Preparedness
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15. 23-Aug-14 15
Nature of Conflict
16-May-16 15

16. 23-Aug-14 16

17. Civ-Mil Partnering in 21st Century Crisis Management
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18. 23-Aug-14 18

19. Need a <br>..?
16-May-16 19

20. Strategy First · Starting with the WHY
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21. Who needs to be involved
Stakeholder Analysis
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22. Planning Considerations #1
People in the Focus
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23. Planning Considerations #2
Successful Communications
Paul Watzlawik
One cannot NOT communicate!
Dave Waterman
EBC · Effects-based Communications
Marketing
AIDA · Attention, Interest, Desire, Action
Mark Laity
5S · Simplify, Shorten, Share, Sustain, and Staff
Chip & Dan Heath: Made to Stick
SUCCESS · Simple, Unexpected, Concrete, Credible,
Emotional, StorieS
G. Richard Shell, Mario Moussa: The Art of WOO
Using strategic persuasion to sell your ideas
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24. Did you ever try to explain to your best friend how
to play chess on your behalf?
Commanders, Planners, Units crash too often.
We must replace the delusion of control by reality
of influence. (Mark Laity)
Planning Considerations #3
Doing right things right
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25. 23-Aug-14 25
Planning Consideration #4

26. Planning Consideration #5
Perception · how we look at others and others look at us
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27. 23-Aug-14 27

28. Planning Consideration #6
Instruments of Power · Strategic Lines of Engagement
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Political CivilMilitary Economic

29. The Product powered by the Power of Information
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Political CivilMilitary Economic
i = 0  1 i = 1  MPEC i > 1  exponentially adding value

30. International Design for Conflict Resolution
16-May-16 30

31. 23-Aug-14 31

32. Comprehensive Crisis Communications
Aims
 Implementation as a process
 To ensure Consistency and Credibility of
Communications by ALL means through
Comprehensive Coordination
 Linking policy with action
 Avoid “Say-Do-Gap”
 Perception Management at its best!
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.gnikniht fo yaw tnereffid A

33. Implementation and Integration of in
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Analysis
(Knowledge
Development)
Analysis
(Knowledge
Development)
Plan
Development
Plan
Development
Execution
(or on the shelf)
Execution
(or on the shelf)
AssessmentAssessment
Comprehensive
Operations
Cycle

34. Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning
Phases
Initial Situation Awareness of potential / actual crisis
 Appreciation of the environment
 Stakeholder Analysis
 Estimate of the situation
Plan Development
 Development of a Concept of Operations
 Plan Development
Execution
 Review & Update
 Assessment
Transition
16-May-16 34

35. 23-Aug-14 35

36. Human Terrain Analysis & Understanding
System Status, System Behavior, System Dynamics
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37. 16-May-16 37

38. Comprehensive Crises Communications Planning
(1) System Analysis & Knowledge Development
Example 1: Global Warming
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39. Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning
(1) System Analysis & Knowledge Development
Example 1: New York City’s comprehensive waterfront plan Vision 2020
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Planning Process
Phase 1 (Spring 2010)
Identify goals and issues
Phase 2 (Summer 2010)
Identify opportunities and priorities
Phase 3 (Fall 2010)
Identify Recommendations

40. Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning
(1) System Analysis & Knowledge Development
Example 2: Water Scarcity, Everglades, Australia
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41. Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning
(1) System Analysis & Knowledge Development
Example 3: Cyber Security Skills Crisis
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42. Comprehensive Crisis Communications
Considerations for Plan Development, Execution and Assessment
16-May-16 42

43. Comprehensive Crisis Communications
Considerations for Plan Development, Execution and Assessment
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Make the difference –
give people the choice.
Action
 greater impact on people’s perceptions,
motivation, behaviour.
Are we doing right things… right?

44. Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning
(2) Plan Development
Example 1: Climate Change
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45. Driving Analogy
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UNCLASSIFIED

46. Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning
ulrich.janssen@marshallcenter.org
DISASTER PREPARED & RESPONSE WORKSHOP