This is a short introduction to the fundamentals of system dynamics: stock and flow models with connectors and feedback loops; rules of "grammar" and a couple of example models.
Radical innovation in mining management austmineHendrik Lourens
Social license, Digital transformation, Safety, and Profitability - four issues that seem to be caught in a perpetual trade-off. Spend more time on one, and it reduces the attention given to the others. It's a problem that impacts everyone in the organisation: In this series of articles we will provide a powerful solution that has been developed over 15 years.
The Winter edition of PTC Product Lifecycle Report eMagazine shares the latest stories on engineering innovation, the Internet of Things, 3D printing, robotics and much more.
Change Labs: Taking Bold Risks, But not AloneLisa Joy Trick
Citizens continue to demand government leadership on problems that are complex, multifaceted, and not solely within government jurisdiction: healthcare, the environment, poverty, transportation and crime, just to name a few. These are ongoing, intractable system-level problems that are complex: there is no procedure, no method, no approach, that can reliably, predictably, and repeatedly make progress on these areas.
These complex problems are beyond the scope of any one actor — individual, community, company, or government—to solve. Collaboration on cross-sector solutions is necessary, but far from straightforward. Provincial and federal governments, in particular, face an identity crisis. The traits that served them well historically, and form the core of their approach—stable, reliable, consistent… in a word, bureaucratic — are now factors constraining their ability to adapt, collaborate and innovate on complex challenges that do not substantively respond to traditional approaches.
Government needs to be able to innovate, which requires taking risk, something that runs contrary to an organization designed to reliably produce predicted outcomes and responsibly manage the public purse. This is especially true in a time of austerity, with a hyper-reactive media ready to jump on any mistake, and a distrusting public. Evolving to a new governance model is going to require a bridge.
Change labs refer to a wide range of social technologies that allow parties to experiment and share risk in a new way. Labs are a place where multiple parties come together around a common problem, in a “space”, which temporarily disrupts existing power structures. Actors work together to expand their understanding of a problem, identify points of intervention, and prototype and iterate solutions in a safe, supportive environment where participants co-develop and share the risk associated with those solutions. This has the potential to unlock new pathways on problems, by creating space for government to partner with others in a different way.
The Now and Next of Learning and TechnologyDavid Kelly
These slides were used in support of a talk I deliver at conferences and events..
If you're interested in bringing this talk/workshop into your event or organization, please contact me at LnDDave@gmail.com.
Radical innovation in mining management austmineHendrik Lourens
Social license, Digital transformation, Safety, and Profitability - four issues that seem to be caught in a perpetual trade-off. Spend more time on one, and it reduces the attention given to the others. It's a problem that impacts everyone in the organisation: In this series of articles we will provide a powerful solution that has been developed over 15 years.
The Winter edition of PTC Product Lifecycle Report eMagazine shares the latest stories on engineering innovation, the Internet of Things, 3D printing, robotics and much more.
Change Labs: Taking Bold Risks, But not AloneLisa Joy Trick
Citizens continue to demand government leadership on problems that are complex, multifaceted, and not solely within government jurisdiction: healthcare, the environment, poverty, transportation and crime, just to name a few. These are ongoing, intractable system-level problems that are complex: there is no procedure, no method, no approach, that can reliably, predictably, and repeatedly make progress on these areas.
These complex problems are beyond the scope of any one actor — individual, community, company, or government—to solve. Collaboration on cross-sector solutions is necessary, but far from straightforward. Provincial and federal governments, in particular, face an identity crisis. The traits that served them well historically, and form the core of their approach—stable, reliable, consistent… in a word, bureaucratic — are now factors constraining their ability to adapt, collaborate and innovate on complex challenges that do not substantively respond to traditional approaches.
Government needs to be able to innovate, which requires taking risk, something that runs contrary to an organization designed to reliably produce predicted outcomes and responsibly manage the public purse. This is especially true in a time of austerity, with a hyper-reactive media ready to jump on any mistake, and a distrusting public. Evolving to a new governance model is going to require a bridge.
Change labs refer to a wide range of social technologies that allow parties to experiment and share risk in a new way. Labs are a place where multiple parties come together around a common problem, in a “space”, which temporarily disrupts existing power structures. Actors work together to expand their understanding of a problem, identify points of intervention, and prototype and iterate solutions in a safe, supportive environment where participants co-develop and share the risk associated with those solutions. This has the potential to unlock new pathways on problems, by creating space for government to partner with others in a different way.
The Now and Next of Learning and TechnologyDavid Kelly
These slides were used in support of a talk I deliver at conferences and events..
If you're interested in bringing this talk/workshop into your event or organization, please contact me at LnDDave@gmail.com.
Wabash Heartland Innovation Network Presentation February 2019 Ed Morrison
The Wabash Heartland Innovation Network (WHIN: http://whin.org) is designing new networks to support the development and deployment of technologies for smart manufacturing and smart agriculture.
We have been working on new approaches to ecosystem development that can accelerate the development of WHIN, This presentation explains.
DSD-Kampala 2023 Modelling in support of decision making - RussellDeltares
Presentation by Bobby Russell (Deltares) at the Symposium Models and decision-making in the wake of climate uncertainties, during the Deltares Software Days - Kampala 2023 (DSD-Kampala 2023). Wednesday, 4 October 2023, Kampala, Uganda.
Workshop: Learning and the Climate Emergency
Dr. Jenneth Parker & Prof. Ros Wade, RCE London
Europe Regional Meeting 2019
13-14 September, 2019, Heraklion, Greece
the delicate topic of Sustainable Development through a
book which I have co-authored and give to the audience also a perspective on
how Education can sensitively provide support for this framework.
I will participate in my role of affiliate professor of management and behavior
for Grenoble Graduate School of Business, France ( www.ggsb.com)
by mark esposito (m.esposito@ht.umass.edu)
Totten 189 slides on Catalyzing Zero Emission Cities - presentation to Colora...Michael P Totten
189 slides discussing a collaborative information network (COIN) to help citizens catalyze combustion-free, emission-free campuses, cities, and companies, and transition to electrification powered by solar, wind, and efficiency gains.
Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challengesHolger Mueller
Holger Mueller of Constellation Research shares his key takeaways from SAP's Sapphire confernece, held in Orlando, June 3rd till 5th 2024, in the Orange Convention Center.
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Have you ever heard that user-generated content or video testimonials can take your brand to the next level? We will explore how you can effectively use video testimonials to leverage and boost your sales, content strategy, and increase your CRM data.🤯
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1. How to capture video testimonials that convert from your audience 🎥
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We have been working on new approaches to ecosystem development that can accelerate the development of WHIN, This presentation explains.
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Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdfKaiNexus
Enterprise excellence and inclusive excellence are closely linked, and real-world challenges have shown that both are essential to the success of any organization. To achieve enterprise excellence, organizations must focus on improving their operations and processes while creating an inclusive environment that engages everyone. In this interactive session, the facilitator will highlight commonly established business practices and how they limit our ability to engage everyone every day. More importantly, though, participants will likely gain increased awareness of what we can do differently to maximize enterprise excellence through deliberate inclusion.
What is Enterprise Excellence?
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What might I learn?
A way to engage all in creating Inclusive Excellence. Lessons from the US military and their parallels to the story of Harry Potter. How belt systems and CI teams can destroy inclusive practices. How leadership language invites people to the party. There are three things leaders can do to engage everyone every day: maximizing psychological safety to create environments where folks learn, contribute, and challenge the status quo.
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2. World Economic Forum
in collaboration with :
Marsh & McLennan Companies
Swiss Reinsurance Company
Wharton Center for Risk Management,
University of Pennsylvania
Zurich Financial Services
GlobalRisks
2011
SixthEdition
An initiative of the Risk Response Network
World Economic Forum
January 2011
Climate change
most important risk
of next 10 years
(January 2011)
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
6. futureproofed.com
A range of systems thinking skillsA range of systems thinking skills
Apply
Systems Thinking
Skills
95-100%
Build
Simple Maps
40-50%
Build
Simple
Models
15-20%
Build Complex
Models
2%
Source: sustainability institute
7. futureproofed.com
Applying systems’ thinking
Source: sustainability institute
Applying systems thinking
The following curve is instructive regarding how to apply system dynamics
There’s value to be added at many points along the curve!
Value/
Utility
Effort/Time Expended;
Skill Required
“Conversational” use of thinking skills
Simple stock & flow map
Simple model/interface
Complex model/interface
“Mother of all Models”
10. futureproofed.com
“Laundry list” thinking mental model
Source: tracing connection (voices of systems thinkers)
Good teachers
Good parenting
High motivation
Positive classroom
environment
Academic success
11. futureproofed.com
Systems’ thinking mental model
Source: tracing connection (voices of systems thinkers)
Good teachers
Good parenting
High motivation
Positive classroom
environment
Academic success
12. futureproofed.com
Stock & flow models
Source: Tracing connections, sustainability institute
Flow Stock
Stocks represent accumulation of, for
example people, things, cars, stress...
Flows represent actions or activities that
fill or drain accumulations over time
13. futureproofed.com
Artic ice cover
Ocean freezing Artic ice thawing
Artic ice cover
Ocean freezing Artic ice thawing
One stock, two flows
Stress Stress
Building stress from
overworking
Decreasing stress
from relaxing
Artic ice cover
Ocean freezing Artic ice thawing
Public transport
Choosing the bus Giving up on the bus
Bus riders
(people)(people/month) (people/month)
Natural capital
Tree growth Deforestation
Healthy
rainforest
cover
(km2)(km2/year) (km2/year)
Artic ice cover
Ocean freezing Artic ice thawing
Bathtub water
in tub
inflow outflow
(liter)(liter/min) (liter/min)
18. Haïti Dominican Republic
The climate project
Ecosystem services:
“interest” on
natural capital
Living systems (capital)
Ecosystem services (interest)
Ecosystem services
futureproofed.com
19. Haïti Dominican Republic
The climate project
Ecosystem services:
“interest” on
natural capital
Living systems (capital)
Ecosystem services (interest)
Ecosystem services
• Water purification
• Flood management
• Pollination
• Buffering extreme weather
• Soil formation
• Photosynthesis:
CO2 to O2
Ecosystem services
futureproofed.com
24. futureproofed.com
Basic stock and flow models
Source: Thinking in systems; Futureproofed
Rain
Water in lake
River inflow River outflow
Evaporation
Mining
Fossil fuel reserves
26. futureproofed.com
Stocks & flows
Rules of grammar
Source: sustainability institute; Futureproofed
All flows into and out of a stock must
bear the same units-of-measure as the
stock itself, but on a per time basis.
All physical flows come from somewhere
(i.e., deplete some feedstock), and go to
somewhere (i.e., fill some repository).
Artic ice cover
Ocean freezing Artic ice thawing
(km2)(km2/year) (km2/year)
Being hired Losing jobs
Employed youth
(people)(people/year) (people/year)
Rule 1: Respect unit consistency Rule 2: Respect conservation laws
Employed youth
Being hired
Candidate pool
Losing jobs
Former employees
In building a model, you must draw the
boundary of the system you want to model.
Heat from furnace Heat to outside
Room temperature
Learning Forgetting
Knowledge
27. futureproofed.com
Flow
Converter
Stock
The basics
Examples of basic stock & flow models
Source: Tracing connections, sustainability institute
Connector
Stocks represent accumulation of, for
example people, things, cars, stress...
Flows represent actions or activities that
fill or drain accumulations over time
Connectors show causal relationships
that drive the generation of activity
Converters modify flows and other
converters. One of their most common
uses is to tell how quickly an action
happens
28. futureproofed.com
Flow Stock
Converter
The basics
Examples of basic stock & flow models
Source: Tracing connections, sustainability institute
Connector Feedback
Stocks represent accumulation of, for
example people, things, cars, stress...
Flows represent actions or activities that
fill or drain accumulations over time
Connectors show causal relationships
that drive the generation of activity
Converters modify flows and other
converters. One of their most common
uses is to tell how quickly an action
happens.
A feedback loop is formed when changes
in the stock affect the flow into or out of
that same stock.
29. futureproofed.com
Models with feedback loops
Source: Futureproofed, Barry Richmont
Flow Stock
Converter
Interest rate
Feedback
Earning interest
Cash on
bank
account
Flow Stock
Converter
Methane release
rate per °C warming
Feedback
Methane release
from permafrost
Global
warming
Converter
yx
Growing apart
Health of
relation
rate of decay
of relationship
Converter
yx
forgetting
Memoriz
ed facts
memory time
constant
39. example- Storytelling Nuage Vert Helsinki
Continuous process of visualising, inspiring with
gamification element. Allowing for broader media-support.
44. From the Drivepower Technology Atlas.
Tunneling through the cost barrier
FACTOR 10 improvement at lower initial cost
Pipes Larger diameter; straight layoutLarger diameter; straight layoutLarger diameter; straight layout
Pump specs. Smaller pumps and motorsSmaller pumps and motorsSmaller pumps and motors
Capital investment Lower than original designLower than original designLower than original design
Pumping power (hp) before: 95 after: 7 saving: 93%
-90 %
45. How to specify flows
Summary of Generic Flow Templates
Stock-Generated
Flow-Generated
Compounding
Infected
Population
becoming
infected
infection
rate
becoming = Infected * infection
infected Population rate
pumping = Oil Wells * well productivity
External Resource
Barrels of Oil
pumping
Oil
Wells
well
productivity
Co-flow
eroding = water running off * soilunit of water
Top
Soil
eroding
water running off
soilunit of water
Stock-adjustment
changing = gap * adjustment fraction
changing = gap / adjustment time
Perceived
Quality
adjusting
perception
gap
Current
Quality
adjustment fraction
or time constant
Draining
discharging = Patients * daily discharge fraction
or
discharging = Patients / average time in hospital
Patients
discharging
daily disharge
fraction
Generic flow templates
Source: sustainability institute
futureproofed.com
46. futureproofed.com
Software and web-resources
Leverage Points Blog
Sustainability Institute
Category:Stock & Flow - SystemsWiki
Vensim - systems thinking software
Consideo - Modeler & iModeler software
isee systems - SystemsThinking Software
47. futureproofed.com
Books
Thinking in Systems is a concise and crucial book offering insight
for problem-solving on scales ranging from the personal to the
global.
This essential primer brings systems thinking out of the realm of
computers and equations and into the tangible world, showing
readers how to develop the systems-thinking skills that thought
leaders across the globe consider critical for 21st-century life.
While readers will learn the conceptual tools and methods of
systems thinking, the heart of the book is grander than
methodology.
Donella Meadows was known as much for nurturing positive
outcomes as she was for delving into the science behind global
dilemmas. She reminds readers to pay attention to what is
important, not just what is quantifiable, to stay humble and to
continue to learn.
In a world growing ever more complicated, crowded, and
interdependent,Thinking in Systems helps readers avoid
confusion and helplessness, the first step toward finding
proactive and effective solutions.A vital read for students,
professionals and all those concerned with economics, business,
sustainability and the environment
48. Tracing
ConnectionsVoices of Systems Thinkers
Twelve of the world’s
foremost systems thinkers
share how they use this
powerful thinking tool
to change lives.
This book will leave you
with a better understanding
for what systems thinking
is, who is using it, and why
applying systems thinking is
critical in an interdependent
world.
In tribute to their colleague
and friend Barry Richmond,
this volume’s contributors
include pioneers who
studied under Jay Forrester
at MIT, teachers and
colleagues trained by Barry,
and a client from the World
Bank who came to embrace
systems thinking in his work.
The proceeds from this
book will support and
train educators in systems
thinking through the
Creative Learning Exchange,
helping further Barry’s
mission of getting systems
thinking into the hands of as
many people as possible.
Ali Mashayekhi
Professor of
Management,
Sharif University of
Technology, Tehran
Steve Peterson
Principal Consultant,
Lexidyne, LLC, West
Lebanon, New
Hampshire
Frank Draper
Physics and field
sciences teacher,
Catalina Foothills
School District,
Tucson, Arizona
Tracy Benson
Coordinator of the
Waters Foundation,
Systems Thinking
in Schools project,
Tucson, Arizona
Diana M. Fisher
Math teacher,
Wilson High School,
Portland, Oregon
John Morecroft
Professor of
Management Science
and Operations,
London Business
School, London
Corey Peck
Managing Director,
Lexidyne, LLC,
Colorado Springs,
Colorado
John L. Newman
Lead Economist,
Poverty and
Gender Group,
Latin America and
Caribbean Region,
The World Bank
James K. Doyle
Associate Professor
of Psychology,
Worcester Poly-
technic Institute,
Worcester,
Massachusetts
Khalid Saeed
Professor of Social
Science and Policy
Studies, Worcester
Polytechnic Insti-
tute, Worcester,
Massachusetts
Jeanine Skorinko
Assistant Professor
of Social Science and
Policy Studies,
Worcester Poly-
technic Institute,
Worcester,
Massachusetts
Peter M. Senge
Author of The
Fifth Discipline,
Founding Chair
of the Society for
Organizational
Learning, and
senior lecturer,
MIT, Cambridge,
Massachusetts
Systems thinking provides
the missing intellectual and
cognitive underpinning for
education for sustainability
and global citizenship.
This extraordinary book
could not come at a
better time as more and
more people realize that
patching up our industrial
age schools will achieve
neither the innovation
nor the inclusiveness so
desperately needed.
Building on Barry Richmond’s
seminal work on the critical
thinking skills embedded in
rigorous systems thinking,
the book gives a wide
sampling of the progress
that has been made by
innovative educators in the
past two decades in curricula
and pedagogy.
Long regarded as the stuff
of graduate education, these
skills are being embedded
in primary education and
developed to remarkably
advanced levels in
secondary education.
—Peter Senge
MIT and SoL
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORSTracing Connections is for anyone who’s
ever wondered how SystemsThinking can
be effectively used to significantly and
successfully transform education,
business, public policy, and research.
In ten chapters, teachers,World Bank
Executives, corporate consultants,
researchers and college professors lead
the reader through an amazing spectrum
of applied SystemThinking that leads to
unexpected realizations and critical
understanding.
Inspired by Barry Richmond, Systems
Thinking pioneer, isee systems founder,
and creator of STELLA and iThink,Tracing
Connections reveals how a new way of
thinking can radically improve your ability
to work through complex issues and
uncover elegant solutions. futureproofed.com