Julia Roig leads a breakout session at the 2015 Rotary Peace Symposium in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

1. Program Design for Peacebuilders
Rotary Peace Symposium June 5, 2015

2. AGENDA
• Who’s in the room?
• Peacebuilding 3.0
• Theories of Change
• Considerations for Program Design

3. What is Peacebuilding for you?
NEGATIVE PEACE: absence of violence and absence of the
fear of violence
POSITIVE PEACE: attitudes, institutions and structures
which when strengthened lead to a more peaceful society

4. Evolution of Peacebuilding
Peacebuilding 1.0
Rooted in peace studies, nuclear
disarmament, alternative dispute
resolution, mediation, and conflict
resolution.
Post-Cold War and throughout the
1990s, in response to the fall of the
Berlin Wall and the conflicts in
Rwanda and Bosnia.
Both process (such as mediation
and negotiation) and structure
(building resilient institutions).
Peacebuilding 2.0
Changed by the terrorist attack on
9/11 and the wars in Afghanistan
and Iraq.
Including sectors such as
development, democracy, food
security, health, and genocide
prevention.
Lack cohesion to operate most
effectively in fragile, chaotic zones
of conflict around the world.
Peacebuilding 3.0
Age of Partnerships?
How do we communicate, and
learn across the current disparate
sectors?
Operate beyond the sum of our
individual parts.
Emphasis on a new, dynamic
systems approach to
peacebuilding, incorporating
complexity theory.

5. Theories of Change
A theory of change explains why we think certain actions will produce
desired change in a given context.
If we do X (action), then we will produce Y (change/shift towards
peace, justice, security)
We believe that by doing X (action) successfully, we will produce Y
(movement towards a desired goal)’
An on-going process of reflection to explore change and how it happens –
and what that means for the part we play.
Serves as a compass for helping us find our way through the fog of complex
systems, discovering a path as we go along.

6. Theories of Change – Why?
• Opening up a conversation with partners and funders about more
realistic programs and aims, allowing both to challenge
unrealistic expectations and over-claiming
• Making explicit a lot of the implicit/tactic knowledge and analysis
• Motivation: ‘reminding everyone why they are doing this’
• More quickly identifying things that aren’t working, so we can
stop doing them (and spend our efforts on something else)

7. One Project – Several TOCs
Example: a project involving the construction of water well in a village in Burundi
could be linked to the following theories of change:
• By providing access to a closer water source, we will improve
safety (less danger of assault or rape, as is the case in many
refugee camps) and health (improved sanitation, no
contamination in drinking water, ability to cook with water).
• If there is closer access to water, then children can attend school
instead of having to travel for hours to provide water for the
family.
• If we teach locals how to build water wells, then they can repeat
the process in neighboring villages, thus spreading access to
water throughout the region.

8. Peacebuilding Theories of Change
• Inside-Out Peacebuilding
• Attitude Toward Peace
• Healthy Relationships
• Peace Process
• Functioning Institutions
• Reform the Elite
• Coming to Terms with the Past

9. Interconnections between approaches
More people Key people
Individual/
Personal
Level
Socio-Political
Level

10. What are your Theories of Change?

11. Considerations in Program Design
 Where do I start? What is my niche? What talents, relationships
assets do I bring (and my organization?)
 One size does not fit all (need careful context analysis)
 Who is already doing what? (need to map other projects and
actors)
 Who are your partners and allies? (can we build on existing
efforts?)
 What is a realistic time frame? What will this really cost?

12. Effects
Main Problem
Causes
Defining the Problem: Analysis!
1. Who is the target
groups,
beneficiaries and
other stakeholders?
2. What are the
problem (causes,
effects) and needs
3. What are the
possible solutions
4. What are the
possible strategies
and which one will
we choose?

13. What are we going to do?
TALK, LISTEN, AND ASK DIFFICULT QUESTIONS OF THE
STAKEHOLDERS, PARTICULARLY WOMEN AND YOUTH.
CONVENE PEOPLE TO ENVISION A COLLABORATIVE
FUTURE.
CONSIDER THE COUNTER-INTUITIVE
MAKE BRAINSTORMING A DISCIPLINE
PRACTICE OPPORTUNISM. (Find leverage points and synergies!)
RELEASE THE ARTIST IN PEOPLE

14. Don’t Forget!
System Push Back?
What are the systems of power, privilege or simply bureaucratic inertia that will impede
significant progress—and that should cause us to reconsider our theories of change and
programmatic approaches?
Complementarities, Divergences or Duplication
Programs/projects should not be viewed in isolation. Are there other efforts running in
parallel or in support of initiatives at different levels? Does our proposed action
undermine another effort? Has our proposed effort been tried before—and, if so, with
what results? Do the theories of change of the diverse efforts in the same domain/sector
complement or contradict each other? What about the effects of initiatives in other
sectors?
Do No Harm/Conflict Sensitivity
Flaws in the theory of change can endanger people. This is partly related to system push
back as discussed above, but also simply due to backfiring or rebound effects. In other
words, we can cause harm by miscalculating how change happens or misjudging the
effects of a range of programmatic activities, such as whom we hire; and choices
regarding project location, activities, participants/ beneficiaries, contractors/suppliers…

15. Program Design Logic Model
GOAL
Activity
OBJECTIVE
IMPACT
OUTCOMES
OUTPUTS
INPUTS

16. Goals vs. Objectives

17. Monitoring & Evaluation

18. “The only difference between a stumbling block and a stepping stone is the way
we use them.” - Adriana Doyle
1. What does success look like? How much change is enough?
2. What is to be measured – what is going to change?
3. Unit of measurement to be used to describe the change
4. Pre-program status/state, also known as the baseline (where
possible)
5. Size, magnitude, or dimension of the intended change
6. Quality or standard of the change to be achieved
7. Target population(s)
Basic Components of Indicators

19. Sample Indicators
OBJECTIVE INDICATOR
Increase inter-community collaboration
on public policy issues that address
common interests.
Expand from twice/year to six times/
year the number of public policy debates
or forums where all three communities
contribute interest-based solutions on
natural resource management disputes
by the end of 2009.
Increase trust between the two
communities.
50% of men, women, and children from
each side increase their mobility within
the areas controlled by the other side by
at least one square kilometer per year.
Measurable • Reliable • Feasible • Utility in Decision-Making

20. Mapping The Boundaries of an Expanding Field (2012 Alliance for Peacebuilding)
http://www.allianceforpeacebuilding.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/AfP-Mapping-Report_online_FINAL.pdf
DFID on Theories of Change http://www.cdacollaborative.org/publications/reflecting-on-peace-practice/rpp-guidance-materials/practical-
approaches-to-theories-of-change-in-conflict,-security-and-justice-programmes-part-i/
USAID CMM’s Theories of Change http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNADS460.pdf
OECD DAC’s work on Theories of Change http://www.oecd.org/dac/evaluation/dcdndep/39774573.pdf
SFCG’s Module on Theories of Change http://dmeforpeace.org/sites/default/files/3.7%20Theory%20of%20Change.pdf
Church & Rogers Designing for Results http://www.sfcg.org/Documents/manualpart1.pdf
OECD Monitoring and Evaluation http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/29/21/2754804.pdf
Conflict Analysis: http://www.gsdrc.org/index.cfm?objectid=3133E975-14C2-620A-277DFFB9CA069184
http:9bb63f6dda0f744fa4449471a7fca5768cc513a2e3c4a260910b.r43.cf3.rackcdn.com/files/8513/8008/4706/Bridging
-the-participation-gap.pdf
Systems thinking https://www.leveragenetworks.com/learn/systems-thinking
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

21. Julia Roig, President
Partners for Democratic Change
jroig@partnersglobal.org
202-942-2166 ext. 101
1779 Massachusetts Ave., NW Suite 515, Washington, DC 20036
THANK YOU!