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The Vertical Shift - Avoiding the Malthusian Catastrophe - Gordon Graff
- 1. THE VERTICAL SHIFT: AVOIDING THE MALTHUSIAN CATASTROPHE BY GORDON GRAFF
- 2. “The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.” _____________________________ Thomas Malthus, 1789 THE VERTICAL SHIFT: AVOIDING THE MALTHUSIAN CATASTROPHE BY GORDON GRAFF
- 3. Population Pressures • As Malthus identified, the human population has a linear relationship with land • Present estimates indicated at least 80% of potentially arable land is already being used for agricultural purposes.
- 4. • To feed the additional 2.5 billion people expected by 2050, 109 hectares (1,000,000,000 ha) of land will be required to feed them with conventional farming practices • To get a scale of this area requirement, it is about approximately the size of Brazil • This is simply not available Population Pressures
- 5. Linear Consumption of Land Dust Bowl – 1930s USA William B. Greeley, The Relation of Geography to Timber Supply, Economic Geo. 1925 DUST BOWL – 1930s US MID-WEST
- 6. Linear Consumption of land About ½ of the mature tropical forest cover of the earth has been destroyed, somewhere between 750-800 million hectares
- 7. Linear Consumption of land AFGHANISTAN 70% loss Between 1990 and 2005 Afghanistan lost 33.8% of its woodland habitat. In total, 70% of its forests have been destroyed.
- 8. Nigeria presently has the highest rate of deforestation of primary forests, according to the UN. Between 1990 and 2005 the country lost 35.7% of its forest cover. All together, 79% of Nigeria’s primary forests have been destroyed. Reasons: Logging, Subsistence Agriculture, Collection of Firewood Linear Consumption of land NIGERIA 79% loss
- 9. Linear Consumption of land MADAGASCAR 94% loss Madagascar’s rampant deforestation has resulted in extensive desertification, water resource degradation, and soil loss. Approximately 94% of its biologically diverse lands have been destroyed, nearly all of which has occurred since claiming independence from France in 1958. This is disheartening when considering 5% of the earths plant and animal species are located in Madagascar, most of which are endemic.
- 10. Linear consumption of land PHILIPPINES +90% loss At one time 95% of the land area of the Philippine archipelago was covered by tropical rainforest Today, over 90% of this diverse ecosystem has been destroyed The Philippines is ranked as having the most severely endangered mammal and bird faunas in the world
- 11. Brazil • Since 1970, 600,000 square kilometers of Amazonian Rainforest have been destroyed within Brazil for agriculture uses. That is about the size of Manitoba, or, two and half times the size of the United Kingdom. This is approximately 40% of its size of1950 • The soil of the Amazon is not ideal for crop cultivation, and tends to only stay fertile for a limited time. Farmers are constantly clearing more land to meet production needs • Unless significant steps are taken to limit deforestation in this area, it is projected that by 2030 only 10% of this vital natural resource will remain
- 12. Tierras Bajas Project – BOLIVIA • Located within the topical rainforest just east of Santa Cruz • Communities were established on a 5 km x 5 km grid for Soybean cultivation
- 13. Agriculture’s Land Consumption 26% Forrest & Savannah 38% Agriculture • Approximately 38% of the Earth’s land is being used for human agriculture. When considering all forests/wooded areas/savannahs only cover 26%, and urban space a tiny 3.5%, the scale of human agriculture comes into view.
- 14. Food Security $145 barrelJuly 2008 $70 barrel July 2006 Environmental Variability Food – Oil Connection Haiti April 2008 Climate ChangePest DamageDrought Food Security
- 15. •Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid… • Massive starvation INITIATIVES FOR THE 21st CENTURY
- 16. •Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid… • Massive starvation • Irreversible ecological catastrophe INITIATIVES FOR THE 21st CENTURY
- 17. •Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid… • Massive starvation • Irreversible ecological catastrophe • Realize a Fossil-Fuel free form of agriculture INITIATIVES FOR THE 21st CENTURY
- 18. •Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid… • Massive starvation • Irreversible ecological catastrophe • Realize a Fossil-Fuel free form of agriculture • Improve Food Security INITIATIVES FOR THE 21st CENTURY
- 19. •Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid… • Massive starvation • Irreversible ecological catastrophe • Realize a Fossil-Fuel free form of agriculture • Improve Food Security • Reduce negative ecological impact of agriculture (methane, nitrous oxide emissions) INITIATIVES FOR THE 21st CENTURY
- 20. SkyFarm SkyFarm
- 21. • 59 Floors • 238 m (714 ft) • 3,800,000 ft2 floor area • 11,000,000 ft2 growing area • Feeds over 40,000 people year round • Fossil-fuel free agriculture • Redefining ‘local’ agriculture SkyFarm
- 23. SkyFarm 2,006,000 lbs of Lettuce 1,822,000 lbs of Cucumber 2,990,000 lbs of Eggplant 3,028,000 lbs of Strawberries 2,736,000 lbs of Peppers 4,672,000 lbs of Carrots 6,570,000 lbs of Spinach 6,570,000 lbs of Soybeans 5,292,000 lbs of Green Beans 5,474,000 lbs of Tomatoes 747,000 lbs of Poultry meat 455,000 dzn Eggs 5,997,000 lbs of Wheat 7,231,000 lbs of Potatoes 242,000 lbs of Tilapia (fish) meat SkyFarm YEARLY PRODUCTION 54,388,000 lbs of Vegetable Produce 989,000 lbs of Animal Meat 455,000 lbs of Eggs
- 24. x2.8 SURFACE AREA Space Efficiency – Surface Area 63 metres (surface area) 182 metres (growing area) = EXAMPLE : Strawberry Production
- 25. x10HARVESTS Space Efficiency – Conditioned Space = Multiple Harvests Example: Strawberry Production 1 ACRE X 2.8 (VERTICAL ORIENT.) X 10 HARVESTS = 28 ACRES • Temperature and lighting control enables the optimal growing conditions for each plant type to be maintained indefinitely
- 26. Space Efficiency – Vertical Stacking James Wines – HIGHRISE OF HOMES
- 27. SkyFarm 18.18 acres of Lettuce 12.45 acres of Cucumber 48.93 acres of Eggplant 332.11 acres of Strawberries 22,20 acres of Peppers 18.70 acres of Carrots 389.64 acres of Spinach 340.02 acres of Soybeans 49.10 acres of Green Beans 14.43 acres of Tomatoes n/a acres of Poultry meat n/a acres Eggs 55.10 acres of Wheat 67.95 acres of Potatoes n/a acres of Tilapia (fish) meat SkyFarm PRODUCE EQUAL TO… 1369.62 acre or 547.85 hectares …of conventional farming
- 30. SkyFarm 230 hectares + 230 hectares = only 460 hectares!
- 33. ANAEROBIC DIGESTERLIVING MACHINETM SkyFarm WASTE H20 CLEAN H20 POWER SkyFarm BUILDING SYSTEM DIAGRAM SILAGE AGRI-WASTE
- 34. SkyFarm SkyFarm CALCULATIONS Data courtesy of Dr. Dickson Despommier Columbia University
- 35. SkyFarm POWER SkyFarm URBAN SYSTEM DIAGRAM PRE-FILTERSEWAGE BIO-WASTE / COMPOSTABLES ORGANIC WASTE WASTE WATER POWER TO GRID WATER TO CITY WATER
- 36. GROWHousing Moss Park (Toronto)
- 37. GROWHousing Moss Park • The tightly packed tenement houses that characterised the neighbourhood were cleared during the urban renewal programs of the 1950s and 60s •Over the years, the city’s social and temporary housing initiatives slowly accumulated in the neighbourhood due to the affordable land and central location •The building site, which is on the west side of the park, is currently consumed by the Moss Park Armoury
- 39. • LIVING MACHINE – FILTERS FARM & RESIDENTIAL WASTE WATER • HYDROPONIC FARM – PRODUCES ENOUGH FOOD TO SUSTAIN 1,000 PEOPLE / YR • ANAEROBIC DIGESTER – COLLECTS FARM WASTE, COMPOSTABLES FROM RESIDENTIAL UNITS AND SOLID WASTE FROM WASTE WATER TO PRODUCE POWER (ALSO CAN PROCESS BIO-WASTES FROM NEIGHBORHOOD) LIVING MACHINE HYDROPONIC FARM ANAEROBIC DIGESTER GROWHousing Building System
- 40. Community Gardens • CREATES 5,300 m2 OF COMMUNITY ACCESS GARDENS • NUTRIENT-RICH COMPOST AND NATURAL FERTILIZERS GENERATED ON SITE (FROM ANAEROBIC DIGESTER) • INTRODUCES SOCIAL ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS A GREATER DEGREE OF SELF- SUFFICIENCY FOR LOW-INCOME EARNERS GROWHousing
- 42. GROWHousing
- 44. Masdar – United Arab Emirates Sir NORMAN FOSTER
- 45. RAK Gateway – United Arab Emirates OMA – REM KOOLHAAS