Six slides to understand the UK economy.
The Saturday Economist, Review of the UK Service Sector October 2013. Six slides to explain what is happening in the UK economy.
A short presentation looking at key economic indicators in the UK economy.
Covers:
UK GDP: the level and the % below pre downturn level
Compares how GDP recovered in past downturns to how it is recovering from the most recent one.
'Lost Output'
Output from the 3 main sectors of the economy: services, production and construction.
The Labour Market:
Employment
Hours worked
Wages and Prices
Public Sector Debt
House Prices
Follow @statshan on twitter, teaching with statistics on FB and find more resources from me on the TES website.
Please let me know what you think as I would like to make these regular presentations if they are seen as useful.
This update was provided as a live interactive webcast to the members of the National Assoication of Manufacturer's Allied Organizations on Thursday, April 11, 2013.
The Economy: Getting Through The Recession (updated)Savannah Whaley
We are in a deep and protracted recession that began in the fourth quarter of 2007. It began in housing and has spread through the entire U.S. and overseas economies. Economic weakness has intensified through 2008 and will worsen through the first half of 2009.
Jason Loughrey, Household income volatility in IrelandNUI Galway
Dr Jason Loughrey, Teagasc, Household income volatility in Ireland presented at the 6th Annual NERI Labour Market Conference in association with the Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway, 22nd May, 2018.
The saturday economist modeling gdp(o) - september forecasts John Ashcroft
This is the latest forecast set for our GDP(O) model. We forecast growth of 2.8% in 2015 and 2.9% in 2016. We have some doubts about the reliability of the construction data n Q2.
We model UK GDP growth in the first instance using our pragmatic GDP (O) model. On this basis we employ more conventional business modelling techniques including, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, pattern recognition and econometrics.
Hiring in St. Louis continues to outpace the U.S. as non-farm payrolls grew by 2.6 percent from the previous year. Find out more in our November Employment Update
What is the UK economic and property market outlook? A presentation I gave in Birmingham in June 2011 when I was Head of EMEA Research at Jones Lang LaSalle (now JLL).
Real Estate Economics as presented by Robert Kleinhenz, Ph.DRealEstateEducation
Economic Statistics
Kyser Center for Economic Research
Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D.
Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research,
Los Angeles Economic Development Center (LAEDC)
Community College Real Estate Educators’ Conference, Hilton LAX,October 18, 2013
Last week, Mr. William Strauss with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago presented the 2012 Economic Highlights to the Aurora Regional Chamber membership. This is his presentation.
2012 Aurora Chamber Economic Forecast Presentation presented by William A. St...mscristina
Very interesting presentation prepared by William A. Strauss, Sr. Economist & Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and shared with the members of the Aurora Regional Chamber of Commerce at the recent 2012 Economic Forecast Event held in Aurora, IL.
The Saturday Economist Private Client GroupJohn Ashcroft
This is the brochure for The Saturday Economist Private Client Group. We continue to work with a number of clients in addition to the Saturday Economist and The Saturday Economist Live. Join our Private Client group. You will have access to all of the Premium Subscriber content plus our work on scenario modelling, digital accommodation, disruptive innovation and platforms for growth. You will have access to personalized on line updates and our "Lunch at The Lowry" events.
The Saturday Economist Bond Market SentinelJohn Ashcroft
This is the Bond Market Sentinel analysis available
to members of the Saturday Economist Club. We monitor ten year gilt and bond yields in the US and the UK together with a look along the yield curve.
For exchange rates check out our weekly exchange rate updates. For the outlook on copper and metals check out our weekly metals update.
The comments on markets should not be construed as the giving of investment advice. Markets do not always behave according to trend.
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Similar to The Saturday Economist, UK Service sector update October 2013
A short presentation looking at key economic indicators in the UK economy.
Covers:
UK GDP: the level and the % below pre downturn level
Compares how GDP recovered in past downturns to how it is recovering from the most recent one.
'Lost Output'
Output from the 3 main sectors of the economy: services, production and construction.
The Labour Market:
Employment
Hours worked
Wages and Prices
Public Sector Debt
House Prices
Follow @statshan on twitter, teaching with statistics on FB and find more resources from me on the TES website.
Please let me know what you think as I would like to make these regular presentations if they are seen as useful.
This update was provided as a live interactive webcast to the members of the National Assoication of Manufacturer's Allied Organizations on Thursday, April 11, 2013.
The Economy: Getting Through The Recession (updated)Savannah Whaley
We are in a deep and protracted recession that began in the fourth quarter of 2007. It began in housing and has spread through the entire U.S. and overseas economies. Economic weakness has intensified through 2008 and will worsen through the first half of 2009.
Jason Loughrey, Household income volatility in IrelandNUI Galway
Dr Jason Loughrey, Teagasc, Household income volatility in Ireland presented at the 6th Annual NERI Labour Market Conference in association with the Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway, 22nd May, 2018.
The saturday economist modeling gdp(o) - september forecasts John Ashcroft
This is the latest forecast set for our GDP(O) model. We forecast growth of 2.8% in 2015 and 2.9% in 2016. We have some doubts about the reliability of the construction data n Q2.
We model UK GDP growth in the first instance using our pragmatic GDP (O) model. On this basis we employ more conventional business modelling techniques including, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, pattern recognition and econometrics.
Hiring in St. Louis continues to outpace the U.S. as non-farm payrolls grew by 2.6 percent from the previous year. Find out more in our November Employment Update
What is the UK economic and property market outlook? A presentation I gave in Birmingham in June 2011 when I was Head of EMEA Research at Jones Lang LaSalle (now JLL).
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Economic Statistics
Kyser Center for Economic Research
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Last week, Mr. William Strauss with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago presented the 2012 Economic Highlights to the Aurora Regional Chamber membership. This is his presentation.
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The Saturday Economist Private Client GroupJohn Ashcroft
This is the brochure for The Saturday Economist Private Client Group. We continue to work with a number of clients in addition to the Saturday Economist and The Saturday Economist Live. Join our Private Client group. You will have access to all of the Premium Subscriber content plus our work on scenario modelling, digital accommodation, disruptive innovation and platforms for growth. You will have access to personalized on line updates and our "Lunch at The Lowry" events.
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This is the Bond Market Sentinel analysis available
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For exchange rates check out our weekly exchange rate updates. For the outlook on copper and metals check out our weekly metals update.
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Growth in 2015 was 2.3% down from 2.9% in 2014. We now expect growth of 2.2% in 2016 … following the disappointing performance of manufacturing and construction in the first quarter.
The inflation outlook is still muted, with the fall in world oil, energy, food and commodity prices continuing to dominate headline inflation.
The UK economy grew by 2.0% in the first quarter, revisions to construction and manufacturing growth pulling total output lower. The service sector continues to drive growth.
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2. 70.0
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105.0
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Service Sector Index
Service Sector Update
Trend Rate 4.0%
Recovery Rate 1.6%
Trend Rate 4.0% pre recession
Recovery Rate 1.6% post recession
Index High 105.0 Feb 2008
Index Low 98.5 Jun 2009
Current 104.7 July 2013
From Peak -0.3%
From Trough 6.3%
Service Sector Index
The Saturday Economist.com
October 2013
Wednesday, 2 October 13
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120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Check out www.johnashcroft.co.uk, Join me on LinkedIn, Twitter or Google+
Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants
The Saturday Economist.com
Trend Rate 3.1% pre recession
Recovery Rate 1.4% post recession
Index High 110 Sep 2007
Index Low * 98.2 May 2009
Current 105.8 July 2013
From Peak -3.8%
From Trough 7.7%
Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants
Index Low in 2009 *
Recovery Rate 1.4%
Trend Rate 3.1%
October 2013
Wednesday, 2 October 13
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105.0
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120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Check out www.johnashcroft.co.uk, Join me on LinkedIn, Twitter or Google+
Transport, Storage and Communication
The Saturday Economist.com
Trend Rate 4.7% pre recession
Recovery Rate 2.4% post recession
Index High 107.4 Apr 2008
Index Low 95.5 May 2009
Current 102.9 July 2013
From Peak -4.2%
From Trough 7.7%
Transport, Storage and Communication
Trend Rate 4.7%
Recovery Rate 2.4%
October 2013
Wednesday, 2 October 13
5. 70.0
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Service Sector Index
Check out www.johnashcroft.co.uk, Join me on LinkedIn, Twitter or Google+
Business Services and Finance
The Saturday Economist.com
Trend Rate 4.9% pre recession
Recovery Rate 2.1% post recession
Index High 106.4 Feb 2008
Index Low 98.9 Jun 2009
Current 106.6 July 2013
From Peak +0.2%
From Trough 7.8%
Business Services and Finance
Trend Rate 4.9%
Recovery Rate 2.1%
Index Low in 2009 *
October 2013
Wednesday, 2 October 13
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75.0
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105.0
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Service Sector Index
Check out www.johnashcroft.co.uk, Join me on LinkedIn, Twitter or Google+
Government and Other Services
The Saturday Economist.com
Trend Rate 2.9% pre recession
Recovery Rate 1.0% post recession
Index High - -
Index Low - -
Current 102.2 -
From Peak -
From Trough -
Government and Other Services
Trend Rate 2.9%
Recovery Rate 1.0%
October 2013
Wednesday, 2 October 13
7. Service Sector Update
The Saturday Economist.com
Service Sector Index
1 The UK is on track for growth of 1.5% this year.
2 The service sector is leading the recovery with a trend rate of growth of 1.6%.
3 Prior to recession, the trend rate of growth for the service sector was 4%
4 The sector is almost back to the peak level of output achieved in February 2008.
5 Transport, storage and communication sector is growing at a trend rate of 2.4%
6 The Business Service and Financial Sector is growing at 2.1%.
Service Sector Update
Six things you should know about the economic recovery
Check out the six slides below to understand
what is happening in the UK economy!
October 2013
Trend Rate 4.0% pre recession
Recovery Rate 1.6% post recession
Index High 105.0 Feb 2008
Index Low 98.5 Jun 2009
Current 104.7 July 2013
From Peak -0.3%
From Trough 6.3%
Wednesday, 2 October 13