This document is an economics review by Dr. John Ashcroft dated May 23, 2013. It includes charts and graphs summarizing key economic indicators for various countries such as GDP growth, inflation rates, unemployment, interest rates, and oil prices. Global GDP growth is projected to be around 3.5% annually through 2015. UK GDP growth was 0.9% in 2012 but is estimated to increase to 2.8% in 2013. Inflation in the UK was 2.4% in 2012 and is forecast to be around 2.3-2.8% through 2015. The UK unemployment rate was 7.9% in 2012 and is projected to fall gradually.

1. Economics Review May 2013
Thursday, 23 May 13

2. Thursday, 23 May 13

3. Thursday, 23 May 13

4. May 2013Economics Review
Thursday, 23 May 13

5. May 2013Economics Review
Thursday, 23 May 13

6. Dr John Ashcroft
April 2013
Thursday, 23 May 13

7. -3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3.5
3.7
3.3
2.9
2.7
4.3
-2.3
1.3
3.94.0
3.5
World GDP
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
The trend rate of growth is 2.7%
Data from World
Bank, OECD and
IMF
Thursday, 23 May 13

8. World GDP
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Data from World
Bank, OECD and
IMF
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.5
Euro 1.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.9 1.4
USA 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.8 3.0
China 9.3 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5
Japan -0.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4
Brazil 2.7 0.9 3.2 3.5 4.0
Russia 4.3 3.5 3.5 3.9 3.8
India 6.9 5.1 5.5 6.5 7.0
Turkey 8.5 2.9 4.0 4.5 5.0
Indonesia 6.5 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.6
Mexico 3.9 4.0 3.4 3.6 3.6
Thursday, 23 May 13

9. -15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
6.76.5
5.5
2.5
5.8
15.1
-12.6
2.3
6.6
8.9
7.3
World Trade
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
The trend rate of growth is 5.5%
Trade Multiplier 2.0
Data from World Bank
and Netherlands World
Trade Data
2012 2013 2014 2015
OBR 3.0 4.4 5.9
Estimate 2.5 5.5 6.5 6.7
Thursday, 23 May 13

10. -5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.2
1.8
1.2
0.2
0.9
1.8
-4.1
-0.1
2.82.9
2.4
UK GDP
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13

11. -7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
UK GDP Q1
quarter on quarter
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Thursday, 23 May 13

12. -4.0
-3.2
-2.4
-1.6
-0.8
0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
0.70.6
1.5
1.2
1.6
0.7
2.5
-3.5
-2.3
-2.1
UK GDP Q1 Components of growth
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Manufacturing
Production
Construction
Distribution
Hotels & Leisure
Transport
Business Services
and Finance
-5.9
Total Services
GDP
GDP ex oil
and gas
105 156 68
140 106 291 233 1000 980770
Government
and other
Thursday, 23 May 13

13. -5.0
-4.3
-3.6
-2.9
-2.1
-1.4
-0.7
0
0.7
1.4
2.1
2.9
3.6
4.3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US GDP Q1
quarter on quarter
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Thursday, 23 May 13

14. 0
1.3
2.6
3.9
5.2
6.5
7.8
9.1
10.4
11.7
13.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China GDP Q1
quarter on quarter
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
7.7%!
Thursday, 23 May 13

15. The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Europe GDP
Thursday, 23 May 13

16. The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Europe Unemployment
Thursday, 23 May 13

17. The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Europe Unemployment
Thursday, 23 May 13

18. 80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
UK GDP (O) Index
Trend Rate 2.9%
Trend Rate 1.0%
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
UK GDP
LTR 2.4%
Output Gap
10.4%
Thursday, 23 May 13

19. 80
90
100
110
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US GDP Index
Trend Rate 2.4%
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
US GDP
Output Gap
9%
Thursday, 23 May 13

20. 80
90
100
110
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US GDP Index
Trend Rate 2.4%
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
US Debt
Thursday, 23 May 13

21. 350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Receipts
ANBV
Expenditure
ANLP
UK Debt
UK deficit not shrinking quite so fast
Thursday, 23 May 13

22. 0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.52.5
2.4
2.8
4.5
3.3
2.2
3.6
2.4
2.3
2.0
UK Inflation CPI
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13

23. -1.0
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Inflation CPI
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All
Services
Goods
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
UK Inflation CPI - goods and services
Thursday, 23 May 13

24. -1.5
0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.92.92.8
3.2
5.2
4.6
-0.5
4.0
4.3
3.2
2.8
UK Inflation RPI
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13

25. 0
1.8
3.5
5.3
7.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.32.32.2
2.8
5.6
4.2
1.6
6.8
2.3
2.02.0
UK Inflation Manufacturing Prices (O)
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13

26. -7.5
0
7.5
15.0
22.5
30.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.92.82.52.4
15.4
10.0
-3.2
21.7
3.4
9.9
11.6
UK Inflation Manufacturing Prices (I)
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13

27. $0
$30
$60
$90
$120
$150
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
The Saturday Economist johnashcroft.co.uk
Weekly Series
$ I II III IV
2010 76.35 78.37 77.49 87.28
2011 104.79 116.57 113.57 109.16
2012 118.83 107.57 110.51 109.76
2013 112.11 105.00 115.00 118.00
Oil Price Brent Crude $ Qtr Data
Forecasts
John Ashcroft.co.uk
Oil Price Watch ......
Data Set
Thursday, 23 May 13

28. 0
30.0
60.0
90.0
120.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
120.00118.00
115.00
111.87111.23
79.87
60.93
98.98
72.49
65.20
54.58
Oil Prices - Brent Crude $
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Thursday, 23 May 13

29. 0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.4
2.0
1.5
1.8
2.4
1.9
1.5
3.5
3.9
4.14.1
UK Earnings
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13

30. -3.0
-2.3
-1.5
-0.8
0
0.8
1.5
2.3
3.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-0.1
-0.5
-0.9-1.0
-2.1
-1.4
-0.7
-0.1
1.5
1.8
2.1
UK Real Earnings (CPI basis)
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13

31. 500.0
775.0
1050.0
1325.0
1600.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1,400.0
1,460.0
1,500.0
1,586.7
1,532.3
1,497.1
1,529.1
906.0
863.3
944.7
862.1
UK Unemployment - claimant count
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
000s
1,525
Thursday, 23 May 13

32. 750.0
1312.5
1875.0
2437.5
3000.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2,381.0
2,544.0
2,655.02,687.0
2,547.0
2,479.0
2,394.0
1,783.0
1,654.0
UK Unemployment - LFS basis 000
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
000s
Thursday, 23 May 13

33. 3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
7.4
7.9
8.38.4
8.07.9
7.6
5.7
5.4
UK Unemployment - LFS basis %
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Thursday, 23 May 13

34. UK Unemployment - UV ratio
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Thursday, 23 May 13

35. -5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
U :V Ratio Inverted
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April
Claimant Count :Vacancies Ratio
Recession
Recovery
Recovery
Thursday, 23 May 13

36. 0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.20
0.75
0.500.500.500.50
0.65
4.68
5.51
4.644.65
Interest Rates - UK Base rate
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Thursday, 23 May 13

37. 0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.20
0.75
0.500.500.500.50
0.65
4.68
5.51
4.644.65
Interest Rates - UK Base rate
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
May
Thursday, 23 May 13

38. 0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3.10
2.75
2.40
1.91
3.10
3.613.65
4.59
5.01
4.504.41
Interest Rates - TenYear Gilt Rates
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Thursday, 23 May 13

39. 0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2005/6 2007/8 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16
88,000
99,000
105,000
119,500120,904
140,944
158,923
97,539
36,719
33,076
37,933
Government Borrowing PSNBR £
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
£000excludes pension fund and gilt transfers
Thursday, 23 May 13

40. 0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
2005/6 2007/8 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16
4.9
5.7
6.2
8.28.0
9.6
11.2
6.8
2.62.7
3.1
Government Borrowing PSNBR % GDP
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% GDP
Thursday, 23 May 13

41. 0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2005/6 2007/8 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16
1,502.0
1,398.0
1,286.0
1,189.0
1,103.7
1,001.5
828.7
624.0
527.2497.8461.7
Government Borrowing £million
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
35.1 35.8 36.4 44.5 57.1 66.6 71.8 75.4 81.1 82.2
% of GDP
Thursday, 23 May 13

42. -10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0
2.5
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.2
1.5
-0.5
-1.5
2.2
3.8
-9.7
-2.5
0.8
1.7
0
Manufacturing %
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
-2.4% Q1
Thursday, 23 May 13

43. -15.0
-11.3
-7.5
-3.8
0
3.8
7.5
11.3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.91.5
-2.5
-8.0
2.4
8.0
-13.4
-2.7
2.1
0.8
-2.5
Construction %
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13

44. 50
100
150
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Public New Pvt New Pvt Repairs All Work
Thursday, 23 May 13

45. -3.8
-2.5
-1.3
0
1.3
2.5
3.8
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.21.3
1.1
-2.2
-0.2
4.7
4.1
3.1
Service Sector %
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
GDP(O) Q1
Distribution Transport Business Non Govt Govt
2009 -4.3 -6.1 -3.7 -4.3 2.7
2010 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.6
2011 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.4 1.0
2012 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.0 2.0
Hotels Leisure Storage,Comms Financial
Thursday, 23 May 13

46. -1.0
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.8
1.5
1.4
1.3
0.4
-0.4
0.3
1.0
3.0
3.3
3.2
Retail Sales
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change year on year
Thursday, 23 May 13

47. 1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.4
UK Car Sales Million
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Million Units
Thursday, 23 May 13

48. 0.5
0.8
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.0
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.6
UK Car Manufacturing
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Million Units
Thursday, 23 May 13

49. 0.5
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.4
1.6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.8
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.4
UK Car Exports
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Million Units
Thursday, 23 May 13

50. 1.5
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.1
2.2
UK Car Imports
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Million Units
Thursday, 23 May 13

51. -1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-0.6-0.6-0.6
-0.6-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-0.7
-0.9
-0.9
-0.8
UK Car Net Trade Balance
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Million Units
Thursday, 23 May 13

52. 0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
15.5
14.5
13.5
12.5
10.2
7.6
6.5
5.3
3.7
Retail Sales - online
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% of total retail sales
Thursday, 23 May 13

53. -120.0
-102.5
-85.0
-67.5
-50.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-115.1
-112.1
-109.1
-106.6
-100.2
-97.2
-82.4
-93.1
-89.8
Trade in Goods Deficit £ billions
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
£ billions chain linked series
Thursday, 23 May 13

54. 0
22.5
45.0
67.5
90.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
84.0
79.0
75.0
68.9
76.3
50.8
52.7
55.4
46.8
Trade in Services Surplus £ billions
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
£ billions chain linked series
Thursday, 23 May 13

55. -50.0
-37.5
-25.0
-12.5
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-31.1
-33.1
-23.9
-37.1
-23.9
-46.4
-29.7
-37.8
-43.0
Trade in Goods and Services £ billions
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
£ billions chain linked series
Thursday, 23 May 13

56. -9.0
-6.8
-4.5
-2.3
0
2.3
4.5
6.8
9.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.5
1.0
0.10.1
-0.2
5.8
-7.1
-6.7
9.0
House Prices - UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
% change on prior year
Thursday, 23 May 13

57. 0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
165.4
157.5150.0142.9140.9135.3
143.3
245.0
362.8
345.4
288.3
Mortgage Activity - UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
£ Billions
Thursday, 23 May 13

58. Nationwide House Price Index
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Thursday, 23 May 13

59. Mortgage Activity - UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Thursday, 23 May 13

60. Mortgage Activity - UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Thursday, 23 May 13

61. Mortgage Activity - UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Thursday, 23 May 13

62. The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Exchange Rates
Thursday, 23 May 13

63. Exchange Rates
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
201320122011201020092008200720062005
Sterling Euro
Thursday, 23 May 13

64. Exchange Rates
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Sterling Dollar
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
201320122011201020092008200720062005
Thursday, 23 May 13

65. Exchange Rates
Sterling is expected to hold against the dollar
and appreciate slightly against the Euro as
interest rate spreads narrow and Euroland
worries persist
Further dollar weakness against the Renminbi is
expected.
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
£ : $ 2.00 1.85 1.57 1.55 1.61 1.58 1.56 1.56 1.56
£ : € 1.46 1.26 1.12 1.17 1.15 1.23 1.26 1.28 1.28
£: ¥ 235.6 191.3 146.9 136.1 128.6 126.5 112.3 107.6 103.1
$: € 1.37 1.47 1.40 1.32 1.39 1.28 1.25 1.22 1.22
¥:$ 117.8 103.4 93.6 87.8 79.9 79.8 72.0 69.0 66.1
Yuan:$ 7.61 6.95 6.83 6.77 6.47 6.47 6.25 6.00 5.75
¥:Yuan 15.48 14.88 13.70 12.96 12.35 11.59 11.52 11.50 11.49
Thursday, 23 May 13

66. Dow Jones
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
201320122011201020092008200720062005
Dow Jones
Thursday, 23 May 13

67. FTSE
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
201320122011201020092008200720062005
FTSE
Thursday, 23 May 13

68. Stock Market Equity Risk Premium
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Thursday, 23 May 13

69. 50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
92.3
87.9
83.7
78.6
68.0
57.0
58.4
67.1
63.1
60.1
57.2
Stock Market Dividend Payments UK
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
£ billions
e e f f f
Thursday, 23 May 13

70. Gold Price US $ per oz
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Thursday, 23 May 13

71. Policy Priorities
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Exports
Banking Regions
Infrastructure
Thursday, 23 May 13

72. IMFVisit May 2013
The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Thursday, 23 May 13

73. The UK Economy in Black and White JKA
Thursday, 23 May 13

74. May 2013Economics Review
Thursday, 23 May 13

75. The UK Economy 2005 - 2015 Forecasts
John Ashcroft is Chief Executive of
pro.manchester, a director of Marketing
Manchester and a visiting professor at MMU
Business School specialising in Macro
Economics and Corporate Strategy.
Educated at the London School of Economics
and London Business School with a PhD in
macro economics from MMU.
The material is based upon information which we
consider to be reliable but we do not represent
that it is accurate or complete and it should not be
relied upon as such. We accept no liability for
errors, or omissions of opinion or fact.
In particular, no reliance should be placed on the
comments or trends in financial markets. The
publication of this document should not be
construed as the giving of investment advice.
www.johnashcroft.co.uk
GDP
Inflation CPI
Earnings - whole economy
Unemployment - claimant count
Unemployment - LFS basis
Base Rates
TenYear Gilts
Oil Price - Brent crude
PSNBR £
PSNBR %
Manufacturing
Retail Sales
On line sales
Trade in Goods
Trade in Services
Overall Balance
House Prices
Exchange Rates
Exogenous Assumptions : Growth in China - USA recovery - no Euro collapse
Thursday, 23 May 13