This document summarizes an economic outlook seminar presented to the State Chamber of Commerce on January 14, 2015. It profiles key demographic and economic trends in Vermont from 2008-2015, showing mostly modest annual growth rates of around 3% except for higher rates in Medicaid costs. State budget spending is shown to have grown much faster at 5.45% annually from 2010-2015. Adopting a more modest 3% annual growth rate for the state budget could have eliminated budget deficits. The document also profiles tax data for top income earners and outlines options to remedy fiscal imbalances, recommending focusing reforms and efficiencies abandoned in 2011.

2. This Economic Outlook Seminar was presented to the State Chamber
of Commerce members on January 14th, 2015.
Full data are available upon request. This document may be
reproduced with attribution given to Tom Pelham and Campaign for
Vermont.
For more information: http://www.CampaignForVermont.org

3. Slide Sequence:
Slides 4, 5 and 6 profile key underlying demographic and economic factors over recent years. Note the annual
rates or growth are all 3 percent or less except for the Medicaid Cost Shift, which is a back door shift of costs
associated with Medicaid onto hospitals and private health insurance policies.
Slide 7 profiles state budget spending from 2010 to 2015 and does not include any changes to the budget for
2015 as the annual budget adjustment has not passed the legislature. Note the very high annual rates of growth
and the total growth over this 5 year period and how these rates of growth far exceed the underlying rates of
economic and demographic profiled in slides 3, 4, and 5.
Slide 8 profiles how much less ($254 million) state government would be spending in budget growth had been 3
percent per year versus the 5.45 percent growth that actually occurred. At the more modest growth rate of 3
percent, there would be no budget deficit.
Slide 9 profiles the incomes and income tax burdens of the top 1 percent and 10 percent of Vermont income tax
filers
Slide 10 profiles the top-side strategic choices available to remedy the fiscal imbalance profiled above. Campaign
for Vermont recommends option 3 or a version thereof.

4. 2008 2012 2015
ANNUAL RATE TOTAL CHANGE
Total Population 624,151 625,953 628,346 0.10% 0.67%
25 - 64 Years 338,986 340,353 340,098 0.05% 0.33%
65+ Years 87,703 95,126 107,364 2.93% 22.42%
Vt Enrollments 94,114 89,428 87,344 -1.06% -7.19%
2008 2012 2014 ANNUAL RATE TOTAL CHANGE
Vt’ers Employed
341,450 339,300 336,550
-0.24% -1.44%
Population Trends
Employed Vermonters - November
Consensus Forecast
Vt. Dept. of Labor

5. 2008 2011 2013 ANNUAL RATE TOTAL CHANGE
Median Household
Income
$54,051 $56,734 $55,616 0.57% 2.90%
2008 2011 2013 ANNUAL RATE TOTAL CHANGE
U.I Covered Wages
(Billions)
$11.599 $11.905 $12.680 1.80% 5.78%
2008 2011 2013 ANNUAL RATE TOTAL CHANGE
GROSS STATE PRODUCT
(BILLIONS) $25.2 $27.1 $28.9 2.78% 14.68%
INCOME, WAGES, and GROSS STATE PRODUCT
Median Income
Wages
Gross State Product
U.S. Census Bureau
Vt. Dept. of Labor
Consensus Forecast

6. 2008 2012 2015 ANNUAL RATE TOTAL CHANGE
CPI - INDEX 215.3 229.6 242.1 1.69% 10.17%
2008 2012 2015 ANNUAL RATE TOTAL CHANGE
GRAND LIST
VALUE (BILLIONS)
$80.711 $78.306 $78.905 -0.32% -3.20%
2008 2012 2013 ANNUAL RATE TOTAL CHANGE
HOSPITPAL COST
SHIFT (MILLIONS)
$103.6 $151.9 $153.2 6.74% 47.93%
INFLATION, GRAND LIST and MEDICAID COST SHIFT
GRAND LIST GROWTH
MEDICAID COST SHIFT
Consensus Forecast
Green Mountain Care Board
Consensus Forecast

7. 2010 2012 2015 (SO FAR) ANNUAL RATE TOTAL CHANGE
STATE FUNDS
$1,759,537,526 $2,027,380,397 $2,294,102,106 5.45% 30.38%
TOTAL FUNDS
$4,680,907,712 $4,715,953,207 $5,470,583,472 3.17% 16.87%
2010 2012 2015 (SO FAR) ANNUAL RATE TOTAL CHANGE
STATE FUNDS
$715,330,173 $914,503,693 $1,034,773,036 7.66% 44.66%
TOTAL FUNDS
$1,862,366,034 $1,986,685,493 $2,312,819,239 4.43% 24.19%
2010 2012 2015 (SO FAR) ANNUAL RATE TOTAL CHANGE
EDUCATION SPENDING
$1,313,476,522 $1,352,114,573 $1,513,944,268 2.88% 15.26%
“NET “ PROPERTY TAXES
$909,400,000 $913,700,000 $1,022,300,000 2.37% 12.41%
SPENDING PER
EQUALIZE PUPIL $ 13,957 $ 14,766 $ 16,962 3.98% 21.53%
STATE BUDGET TRENDS
HUMAN SERVICES BUDGET TRENDS
EDUCATION FUND SPENDING
Joint Fiscal Office
Joint Fiscal Office
Joint Fiscal Office – Ed Fund Outlook

8. 2010 2012 2015 (SO FAR)
ANNUAL RATE TOTAL CHANGE
STATE FUNDS
$1,759,537,526 $1,866,693,361 $2,039,786,237 3.0% 15.9%
$254,315,869
WHAT IF AND WHY NOT?
STATE BUDGET TRENDS AT 3% - THE SUSTAINABLE DIVIDEND

9. 2007 2009 2012
2013
($116,270)
ANNUAL
RATE
TOTAL
CHANGE
# OF FILERS 31,246 30,486 31,251 31,401 0.08% 0.50%
INCOME (AGI) 7,194,781,850 5,942,721,797 7,237,383,256 7,201,039,374 0.01% 0.09%
% OF TOTAL INCOME 43.0% 39.5% 41.9% 40.9%
TAX 326,883,991 274,435,980 349,500,597 345,418,659 0.92% 5.67%
% OF TOTAL TAX 60.1% 58.2% 60.4% 59.0%
2007 2010 2012
2013
($355,100)
ANNUAL
RATE
TOTAL
CHANGE
# OF FILERS 3,125 3,077 3,125 3,140 0.08% 0.50%
INCOME (AGI)
2,856,432,625 1,415,712,538 2,705,202,133 2,534,384,261 -1.97% -11.27%
% OF TOTAL INCOME 17.1% 9.0% 15.7% 14.4%
TAX 153,413,375 84,571,394 166,717,533 155,556,444 0.23% 1.40%
% OF TOTAL TAX 28% 17% 29% 27%
TAX FILERS – Top 1%
TAX FILERS – TOP 10%

10. OPTIONS FOR RECOVERY
1. MOP-UP WITH TAXPAYERS: INCREASE GENERAL FUND TAXES BY 8 PER CENT ($100 MILLION)
 LET’S HOPE THE PROBLEM IS ONLY $100 MILLION
2. MOP-UP WITH STATE SERVICES: REDUCE GENERAL FUND SPENDING BY 8 PER CENT
3. STRATEGIC WORK-OUT: FY’S 2016 - 2019: ASSUME 3 PERCENT ANNUAL REVENUE GROWTH
 FINGER IN THE DIKE – 2016: TAN’S AND BORROW AGAINST RESERVES FOR CASH FLOW
o NOTE TREASURER’S MISSTEP OF $36.5 MILLION
 LEVEL FUND FY 2016 – NOTE ANNUAL INCREASES OF 5.5% OVERALL AND 7.6% AT AHS
 FY 2016 – 2019; LAZER FOCUS ON REFORMS AND EFFICIENCIES ABANDONED IN 2011
o 1.5% SPENDING GROWTH – 2017-2019, BALANCE FALLS TO BOTTOM LINE
o REIGNITE “CHALLENGES FOR CHANGE” – 2011 TARGET AT $72 MILLION GF
 NOTE $1 BILLION STIMULUS LOST OPPORTUNITY
o REIGNITE “TIGER TEAMS - MEDICAID, AFFORDABLE HOUSING, MENTAL HEALTH, ETC.
o FAST TRACK INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AT AHS