The Saturday Economist on Brexit. All the information you need to make and informed decision. We analyse the arguments in to the business, economic, political and social. The political arguments relate to who governs Britain. The social argument largely dealing with immigration and implications for education, health care and welfare.
The economics case argues against Brexit, largely because of the uncertainty relating to the alternative options. Brexit will damage investment prospects in the short term (uncertainty) and in the long term (strategic). We consider that motor, aerospace and financial services industries are particularly at risk.
As for business ... there is no business case to support the "Brexit" argument. The level of uncertainty is too severe JKA
The Saturday Economist UK Economic Outlook December 2015John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist, UK Economic Outlook December 2015 is out now. We have lowered our forecasts for growth in 2015 and 2016. Check out over twenty pages of analysis
The Saturday Economist, UK Economic Outlook June 2016John Ashcroft
Growth in 2015 was 2.3% down from 2.9% in 2014. We now expect growth of 2.2% in 2016 … following the disappointing performance of manufacturing and construction in the first quarter.
The inflation outlook is still muted, with the fall in world oil, energy, food and commodity prices continuing to dominate headline inflation.
The UK economy grew by 2.0% in the first quarter, revisions to construction and manufacturing growth pulling total output lower. The service sector continues to drive growth.
In this June economics update we forecast world growth of 3.2% in 2016 up from 3.1% in 2015. UK Inflation will average just 0.3%, CPI basis, over the balance of the year 2016. Unemployment will continue to fall, government borrowing will also fall. The service sector will lead the recovery as manufacturing and construction output falls slightly.
We are forecasting a modest fall in manufacturing of around 0.2% in 2016 with a 0.9% fall in construction activity based on the latest data. The trade figures will continue to disappoint, offset by a further £2 billion oil dividend, despite a moderate oil price recovery. The challenge to the current account following the drop in overseas investment income continues and will present a significant problem to the outlook for sterling over the medium term.
Our forecast is based on a "remain" referendum outcome! .
The saturday economist uk economic outlook march 2016John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist : UK Economic Outlook March 2016, Drink with me to days gone by : Service Sector (Leisure Sector) continues to drive output in the UK economy, We expect GDP growth of 2.6% this year slowing to 2.5% in 2017.
The Saturday Economist Brexit Briefing, all the information needed to make an...John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist on Brexit. All the information you need to make and informed decision. We analyse the arguments in to the business, economic, political and social. The political arguments relate to who governs Britain. The social argument largely dealing with immigration and implications for education, health care and welfare.
The economics case argues against Brexit, largely because of the uncertainty relating to the alternative options. Brexit will damage investment prospects in the short term (uncertainty) and in the long term (strategic). We consider that motor, aerospace and financial services industries are particularly at risk.
As for business ... there is no business case to support the "Brexit" argument. The level of uncertainty is too severe JKA
Modelling Investment - Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016John Ashcroft
Modelling Investment - Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016. Published in association with the December Economic Outlook, we outline our sectoral forecasts of investment in the UK
This is a revision presentation on the state of the UK economy five months on from the June 23rd Brexit vote.
Overview:
Post-Brexit impact yet to fully materialize in the macro data
Inflation is back with rising commodity prices and a weaker currency since June 2016
Labour market performance remains strong
But scale of UK current account deficit is a problem
Structural weaknesses on the UK supply-side are unlikely to be resolved soon despite renewed focus on infrastructure and industrial policy in the new May/Hammond government
Productivity and skills gaps hurt UK competitiveness
Risk is that Brexit will lower the UK’s trend growth rate if the economy is not “match-fit” post 2019
Lots of external uncertainties as we head into 2017
Ivo Pezzuto - "BREXIT" - THE GLOBAL ANALYST - MARCH 2016 Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
In this article, Dr. Ivo Pezzuto analyzes the politcal, eocnomic, and social consequences of a potential "Brexit" scenario following Britain's referendum of June 23rd, 2016.
The Saturday Economist UK Economic Outlook December 2015John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist, UK Economic Outlook December 2015 is out now. We have lowered our forecasts for growth in 2015 and 2016. Check out over twenty pages of analysis
The Saturday Economist, UK Economic Outlook June 2016John Ashcroft
Growth in 2015 was 2.3% down from 2.9% in 2014. We now expect growth of 2.2% in 2016 … following the disappointing performance of manufacturing and construction in the first quarter.
The inflation outlook is still muted, with the fall in world oil, energy, food and commodity prices continuing to dominate headline inflation.
The UK economy grew by 2.0% in the first quarter, revisions to construction and manufacturing growth pulling total output lower. The service sector continues to drive growth.
In this June economics update we forecast world growth of 3.2% in 2016 up from 3.1% in 2015. UK Inflation will average just 0.3%, CPI basis, over the balance of the year 2016. Unemployment will continue to fall, government borrowing will also fall. The service sector will lead the recovery as manufacturing and construction output falls slightly.
We are forecasting a modest fall in manufacturing of around 0.2% in 2016 with a 0.9% fall in construction activity based on the latest data. The trade figures will continue to disappoint, offset by a further £2 billion oil dividend, despite a moderate oil price recovery. The challenge to the current account following the drop in overseas investment income continues and will present a significant problem to the outlook for sterling over the medium term.
Our forecast is based on a "remain" referendum outcome! .
The saturday economist uk economic outlook march 2016John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist : UK Economic Outlook March 2016, Drink with me to days gone by : Service Sector (Leisure Sector) continues to drive output in the UK economy, We expect GDP growth of 2.6% this year slowing to 2.5% in 2017.
The Saturday Economist Brexit Briefing, all the information needed to make an...John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist on Brexit. All the information you need to make and informed decision. We analyse the arguments in to the business, economic, political and social. The political arguments relate to who governs Britain. The social argument largely dealing with immigration and implications for education, health care and welfare.
The economics case argues against Brexit, largely because of the uncertainty relating to the alternative options. Brexit will damage investment prospects in the short term (uncertainty) and in the long term (strategic). We consider that motor, aerospace and financial services industries are particularly at risk.
As for business ... there is no business case to support the "Brexit" argument. The level of uncertainty is too severe JKA
Modelling Investment - Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016John Ashcroft
Modelling Investment - Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016. Published in association with the December Economic Outlook, we outline our sectoral forecasts of investment in the UK
This is a revision presentation on the state of the UK economy five months on from the June 23rd Brexit vote.
Overview:
Post-Brexit impact yet to fully materialize in the macro data
Inflation is back with rising commodity prices and a weaker currency since June 2016
Labour market performance remains strong
But scale of UK current account deficit is a problem
Structural weaknesses on the UK supply-side are unlikely to be resolved soon despite renewed focus on infrastructure and industrial policy in the new May/Hammond government
Productivity and skills gaps hurt UK competitiveness
Risk is that Brexit will lower the UK’s trend growth rate if the economy is not “match-fit” post 2019
Lots of external uncertainties as we head into 2017
Ivo Pezzuto - "BREXIT" - THE GLOBAL ANALYST - MARCH 2016 Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
In this article, Dr. Ivo Pezzuto analyzes the politcal, eocnomic, and social consequences of a potential "Brexit" scenario following Britain's referendum of June 23rd, 2016.
Brexit is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a referendum held on 23 June 2016 in which 51.9 percent of those voting supported leaving the EU, the Government invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, starting a two-year process which was due to conclude with the UK's exit on 29 March 2019. That deadline has since been extended to 31 October 2019.
Brexit impact in global financial marketsAndi Belegu
The UK vote a month ago to leave the European Union will have across the board results for budgetary markets, making both open doors and issues. Brexit may increment worldwide money related soundness since heterogeneous monetary markets and financial frameworks increment budgetary dependability, gave the British administrative framework winds up being adequately not the same as the European framework.
Raport przygotowany przez firmę doradczą Deloitte podsumowuje rynek nieruchomości największych miast w siedemnastu krajach Unii Europejskiej, Rosji oraz w Izraelu.
Quarterly growth and levels of GDP for the UK
CPI 12-month inflation rate for the last 10 years: September 2006 to September 2016
Male and Female Employment Rates in the UK
Non-UK nationals working in the UK labour market
Components of Aggregate Demand in recent years
UK unemployment rates by region, seasonally adjusted, June to August 2016
Average UK house price, January 2005 to August 2016, not seasonally adjusted
Constant price GDP per hour worked for G7 countries, 2000 to 2015
Quarterly growth of GDP and GDP per head for UK
Economic Growth for the UK and the EU(28)
UK Bond Yields during 2016
Sterling Exchange Rate (as an index number)
UK Trade Balances By Sector (% of GDP)
UK Current Account Components (% of GDP)
Contributions to CPI Inflation (%)
The idea of creating a guide to the possible implications of Brexit came into being before the date for the Brexit referendum was set and the referendum campaign had begun. Now that the countdown to the June 23 vote is well underway, this has become a much more topical and current issue for everyone in the UK and I think that many more UK businesses are now engaged in active study and planning for Brexit scenarios.
Traders still processing trade deal and Brexit developmentsHantec Markets
Markets are still reacting to the news of a mini trade deal for the US and China in addition to crucial developments in the Brexit process. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turningOlivier Desbarres
There are multiple factors behind Sterling’s collapse in the past fortnight to decade lows and the question remains whether these factors will reverse any time soon.
At the top of the pyramid of causes for Sterling’s demise, in my view, is not the UK’s large current account deficit or Bank of England (BoE) policy but the stance on EU membership which Prime Minister Theresa May has adopted.
So while Sterling’s greater competitiveness may eventually drive FX inflows into the UK and help Sterling to recover, financial markets and investors are likely to continue to take their cue from the British government near-term.
Simply put, if Theresa May continues down of the path of “Hard Brexit”, however ill-defined, Sterling is likely to remain under pressure.
However, history shows that while EU leaders have a tendency to drag their feet over key issues, they are able and willing to eventually find some kind of compromise.
Moreover, Theresa May will be subject to the will of her own Conservative Party – which on the whole supports membership of the UK or at least a softer form of exit from the EU – and of the people.
While the BoE would prefer a more stable currency and lower yields, there is probably little than it can (or should) do near-term beyond trying to reassure markets, investors and households.
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI for August 2015, including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK regions, NI and Republic of Ireland performance by sector
The slides accompany the Yahoo Case Study 2016 and Teaching Notes available from the web site. The Yahoo Case Study Dot com. John Ashcroft Dimensions of Strategy
Balance of payments review 1955 - Could the Balance of Payments deficit threa...John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist, Special Report. In 2013, overseas investment income collapsed, the current account deficit slumped to over 4% of GDP. This happened in 1974 and 1989 when base rates were hiked to 12% and 14% to offset the deficit. Could it happen again, here is the report, check out the slides.
Brexit is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a referendum held on 23 June 2016 in which 51.9 percent of those voting supported leaving the EU, the Government invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, starting a two-year process which was due to conclude with the UK's exit on 29 March 2019. That deadline has since been extended to 31 October 2019.
Brexit impact in global financial marketsAndi Belegu
The UK vote a month ago to leave the European Union will have across the board results for budgetary markets, making both open doors and issues. Brexit may increment worldwide money related soundness since heterogeneous monetary markets and financial frameworks increment budgetary dependability, gave the British administrative framework winds up being adequately not the same as the European framework.
Raport przygotowany przez firmę doradczą Deloitte podsumowuje rynek nieruchomości największych miast w siedemnastu krajach Unii Europejskiej, Rosji oraz w Izraelu.
Quarterly growth and levels of GDP for the UK
CPI 12-month inflation rate for the last 10 years: September 2006 to September 2016
Male and Female Employment Rates in the UK
Non-UK nationals working in the UK labour market
Components of Aggregate Demand in recent years
UK unemployment rates by region, seasonally adjusted, June to August 2016
Average UK house price, January 2005 to August 2016, not seasonally adjusted
Constant price GDP per hour worked for G7 countries, 2000 to 2015
Quarterly growth of GDP and GDP per head for UK
Economic Growth for the UK and the EU(28)
UK Bond Yields during 2016
Sterling Exchange Rate (as an index number)
UK Trade Balances By Sector (% of GDP)
UK Current Account Components (% of GDP)
Contributions to CPI Inflation (%)
The idea of creating a guide to the possible implications of Brexit came into being before the date for the Brexit referendum was set and the referendum campaign had begun. Now that the countdown to the June 23 vote is well underway, this has become a much more topical and current issue for everyone in the UK and I think that many more UK businesses are now engaged in active study and planning for Brexit scenarios.
Traders still processing trade deal and Brexit developmentsHantec Markets
Markets are still reacting to the news of a mini trade deal for the US and China in addition to crucial developments in the Brexit process. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turningOlivier Desbarres
There are multiple factors behind Sterling’s collapse in the past fortnight to decade lows and the question remains whether these factors will reverse any time soon.
At the top of the pyramid of causes for Sterling’s demise, in my view, is not the UK’s large current account deficit or Bank of England (BoE) policy but the stance on EU membership which Prime Minister Theresa May has adopted.
So while Sterling’s greater competitiveness may eventually drive FX inflows into the UK and help Sterling to recover, financial markets and investors are likely to continue to take their cue from the British government near-term.
Simply put, if Theresa May continues down of the path of “Hard Brexit”, however ill-defined, Sterling is likely to remain under pressure.
However, history shows that while EU leaders have a tendency to drag their feet over key issues, they are able and willing to eventually find some kind of compromise.
Moreover, Theresa May will be subject to the will of her own Conservative Party – which on the whole supports membership of the UK or at least a softer form of exit from the EU – and of the people.
While the BoE would prefer a more stable currency and lower yields, there is probably little than it can (or should) do near-term beyond trying to reassure markets, investors and households.
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI for August 2015, including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK regions, NI and Republic of Ireland performance by sector
The slides accompany the Yahoo Case Study 2016 and Teaching Notes available from the web site. The Yahoo Case Study Dot com. John Ashcroft Dimensions of Strategy
Balance of payments review 1955 - Could the Balance of Payments deficit threa...John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist, Special Report. In 2013, overseas investment income collapsed, the current account deficit slumped to over 4% of GDP. This happened in 1974 and 1989 when base rates were hiked to 12% and 14% to offset the deficit. Could it happen again, here is the report, check out the slides.
The saturday economist modeling uk investment september 2015John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist, Modelling Investment, one of the working papers in our Quarterly Economic Outlook. We look a trends in investment by sector, the ratio of investment to GDP, Latest data on capital productivity and our four year capital stock model. Detailed graphs and tables.
Die Landschaft des Web 2.0 ist ein Darstellung über web 2.0, crowdsourcing (ryz, fellowforce, tagcow, myfootball.co.uk), mashups, mobile marketing (shotcodes, qr-codes, semacodes, live sendung über qik, livecastr and kyte), instant messaging (twitter, niimo and chatbots), social media and social networks (linkedin, xing, facebook, ning, qype, digg und flickr), widgets, badgets, snippets, modules.
Dieser Darstellung war in Salzburg, Österreich für Teilnehmer die beschäftigt sind mit Jugendarbeit in Österreich.
Video von meinem Vortrag:
http://blip.tv/file/1498319
Bilder von meinem Vortrag:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/aymanvanbregt/sets/72157609630885325/
Europe at an Inflection Point: Threats and Opportunities for BusinessesSAP Ariba
"For the past couple of decades, Europe has been synonymous with the free movement of goods and services, people, and money. But Brexit – Britain’s vote to leave the European Union – has fundamentally transformed the narrative.
What does this mean for businesses? What impact will it have on trade, tariffs, talent...?
Join economist Roger Bootle as he elucidates what is in store for the future of Europe, in a discussion with Paul Devlin, GM, SAP Ariba (SAP)."
The UK is one of the most competitive economies in the world. The UK second-least regulated among developed countries, after the Netherlands, another EU member state. http://thebrew.co.uk
The UK is one of the most competitive economies in the world. The UK second-least regulated among developed countries, after the Netherlands, another EU member state.
http://thebrew.co.uk/upload/files/Top_10_Rebuttals.pdf
The Rough Guide to Brexit.
Presented at the Association of Language Companies' annual conference at the Eden Roc Miami May 2017 by Richard Brooks.
It explores the following; where Brexit came from, who voted for Brexit, what lessons can we learn, the current economic problems and opporties in the UK and what the future might hold.
The talk ends with the results of a survey of 100 C level business people in the UK.
This month’s update is longer and contains more geopolitics than usual. This is because, for the first time in two generations, the economies of every country in the world are growing (with the possible exception of North Korea). This synchronised global upswing presents new risks and uncertainties.
http://www.jsacs.com/
Economic Update October 2017 - If you look at the larger commonwealth countries put together – including India, Pakistan, Australia and Canada – the top 10 make up simply 8% of our exports compared with 44% for the European Union. And if you take all 52 or 54 commonwealth countries, they make up just 9% of all our exports.
Brexit what are the implications for eu based exporters to the ukPeter Tomlinson
This presentation aims to identify the agenda ítems that exporters to the UK and UK importers need to consider when designing futute marketing and pricing strategies post Brexit in 2019. This is for teaching purposes only-
What if...? The Consequences, challenges & opportunities facing Britain outsi...chmcorpp
E se...? As consequências , desafios e oportunidades que a Grã-Bretanha enfrentará fora da UE
Neste estudo, olharam principalmente o impacto econômico se a Grã-Bretanha deixar a UE. No entanto, dado que Brexit se resume em cálculos, as considerações não quantificáveis , tais como: perda de soberania e responsabilidade democrática podem ser o que determina se a Grã-Bretanha continua ou não a ser um membro da União Europeia.
In this study, we look primarily at the economic impact of Britain leaving the EU. However, given that Brexit comes down to a finely balanced calculation, unquantifiable considerations such as lost sovereignty and democratic accountability may be what in the end determines whether Britain remains a member.
Presentation by David Smith of the Sunday Times at the Single Ply Roofing Association Conference 2019 at Heythrop Park, Oxfordshire.
More information:https://spra.co.uk/events/spra-awards-2019-live-blog/
The Saturday Economist Private Client GroupJohn Ashcroft
This is the brochure for The Saturday Economist Private Client Group. We continue to work with a number of clients in addition to the Saturday Economist and The Saturday Economist Live. Join our Private Client group. You will have access to all of the Premium Subscriber content plus our work on scenario modelling, digital accommodation, disruptive innovation and platforms for growth. You will have access to personalized on line updates and our "Lunch at The Lowry" events.
The Saturday Economist Bond Market SentinelJohn Ashcroft
This is the Bond Market Sentinel analysis available
to members of the Saturday Economist Club. We monitor ten year gilt and bond yields in the US and the UK together with a look along the yield curve.
For exchange rates check out our weekly exchange rate updates. For the outlook on copper and metals check out our weekly metals update.
The comments on markets should not be construed as the giving of investment advice. Markets do not always behave according to trend.
The Saturday Economist Monday Morning MarketsJohn Ashcroft
This is the Monday Morning Markets analysis available
to members of the Saturday Economist Club. We monitor ten markets across the world together with an update on commodity prices and bond yields.
For exchange rates check out our weekly exchange
rate updates. For the outlook on copper and metals
check out our weekly metals update.
The comments on markets should not be construed as the giving of investment advice. Markets do not always behave according to trend! JKA
This the Crypto Wallet Chart analysis available to members of the Saturday Economist Club. We monitor five cryptos including Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Litecoin and Dogecoin.
The comments on markets should not be construed as the giving of investment advice. We do not invest nor trade in crypto.
Markets do not always behave according to trend!
Dogecoin and the speculative bubble mapJohn Ashcroft
In May we warned of the comparison between the Dogecoin price chart and the speculative bubble map. This is the update with the July price footnote. Dogecoin is down in price by 70% since we first published the note. JKA
The Saturday Economist Empires of the Cloud Fund TrackerJohn Ashcroft
This is our Empires of the Cloud Fund Tracker. We model the fortunes of Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Facebook. Together that have a combined market cap of over $9 trillion dollars. $10,000 dollars invested in April 2016 wouuld be worth over $40,000 in 2021.
The Saturday Economist UK Forecast update june 2021John Ashcroft
This is the Saturday Economist Forecast Update for June 2021. Available with Quarterly Updates forr members of The Saturday Economist Club and Premium Subscribers.
The Saturday Economist Live Slide Deck June 2020 ppJohn Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist Live on Zoom. This is the data slide deck from our presentation on the 26th June. Sign up at the Saturday Economist dot com for news of future events.
The Saturday Economist Webinar May Slide SelectionJohn Ashcroft
This pack includes a selection of slides from The Saturday Economist Webinar for May, held on the 29th May 2020.
Videos of the presentation are available on Youtube and LinkedIn
The Saturday Economist Slide Pack April 2020John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist, Quarterly Economics Presentation with Brabners LLP. The April Webinar was held on the 28th April using GoToWebinar with almost 300 in attendance. Our theme was Animal Crossing. JKA
Several years ago, a good friend of mine made the move to set up his own business. He asked me “What should I do to develop my social media profile?”
The Eight “Letters to a friend on Social Media" followed over the next few weeks and months. The basic guide to creating and nurturing a social media profile.
The themes were developed over many years of experience and at great expense. Here the letters are reproduced as a PDF. The eight letters pulled together in this short guide. Here are the first three!
1. Ten Things you must do now to set up your social media profile!
2. Fingerprints, footprints and photographs...laying a trail
3. Beacons, Cascades and R(0)s...how to improve the performance of your social media messaging...
Our Guide to Digital disruption Update 2019John Ashcroft
A collection of our articles on Digital Disruption and Change Management updated for 2019.
Don't thumb your nose at Digital Disruption
So what do we mean by digital disruption
The six forces shaping digital disruption
Digital Disruption Industries of the future
Which jobs will be at risk in the years ahead
Digital Disruption and the UK Banking System
Using our GDP(O) model we forecast growth of 1.5% in the U.K. this year. Here are the data sets and charts we use to develop the forecast. The Saturday Economist ... We don't just make up the numbers JKA
John Ashcroft's The Digital Marketing Guide to the Empires of the Cloud John Ashcroft
The Empires of the Cloud have a combined market capitalisation of almost $3 trillion dollars. Facebook has access to FIVE billion points of contact with internet users. Who are they? Check out the latest update from The Dimensions of Strategy Team! Don't Miss Out! JKA
Uk gilt holdings and qe - money for nothing gilts for freeJohn Ashcroft
Since QE began in early 2009, UK gilts in issue have increased from £600 billion to £1.6 trillion. Bank of England holdings have increased from zero to £400 billion accounting for 25% of all gilts in issue. BoE holdings peaked at almost 30% of total holdings in 2012. Overseas holdings of gilts, have doubled from £200 billion to £400 billion. In the most recent period, overseas holdings have fallen to 25% of all gilts in issue, compared to an historical average of 30%. UK institutional holdings of gilts have increased from £400 billion to £800 billion accounting for 50% of all gilts in issue. Holdings of gilts by pension funds and insurance funds have increased from just over £200 billion to almost £500 billion. As a share of total gilts in issue, pension fund and insurance company holdings have been steady at around 28% over the six year period. Other UK financial institutions have seen a fluctuation in holdings with some suggestion of “front running” i.e. buying gilts ahead of the Bank of England purchase programme to benefit from rising prices. in the initial stages. In fact, all major stakeholders in gilts have increased holdings over the five year period. This raises an interesting question about from whom has the Bank of England bought gilts as part of the QE process? Only in the very early stages of QE is there evidence of purchased from the private sector (note 7). In reality it would appear the Bank of England purchases gilts from the Debt Management Office and not from financial institutions. Asset values are guaranteed by Treasury. JKA
Dividends, yields and coupons are also returned to Treasury, which effectively enables the government to finance borrowing with a Dire Straits underpin “Money for nothing - Gilts for Free.”
The saturday economist manufacturing update October 2015John Ashcroft
Overall manufacturing output remains some 7% below the pre recession peak and in line with levels experienced at the end of 1989. We expected too much from manufacturing in the rebalancing agenda. The average rate of growth since 1950 has been just 1.5% hence the share of output decline in an economy growing at 2.5% plus.
Hopes for a manufacturing rally were rhetoric without reason. The prospect of re shoring was illusory as the plans for Jaguar Land Rover to expand output overseas demonstrate. The UK does not have a revealed comparative advantage in manufacturing to stimulate export growth. The balance of payments trade in goods will continue to deteriorate despite some improvement this year from international energy, oil and commodity prices.
The UK does have a varied manufacturing base, with real strengths in transport, food, drink and capital goods. The sector can only achieve so much in international trade and will offer so little to the rebalancing agenda. We should not expect too much from our manufacturers.
The Saturday Economist Manufacturing Update September 2015John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist, Manufacturing Update September 2015. Based on ONS data from 2000:Q1 to 2015:Q2 this is our working file / graph set we use to analyse manufacturing in the UK. Over 50 slides are available as a FREE download to students and lovers of economics. The trend decline in textiles and tobacco is evident, offset by the evident strength of transport equipment - water, wheels and wings.
The saturday economist uk economic outlook september 2015John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist, UK Economic Outlook, September 2015. Latest forecasts following ONS Second Estimate of GDP released at the end of August. We still forecast growth of 2.8% this year and into next despite the fears about China and sluggish growth in Europe.
The saturday economist modeling gdp(o) - september forecasts John Ashcroft
This is the latest forecast set for our GDP(O) model. We forecast growth of 2.8% in 2015 and 2.9% in 2016. We have some doubts about the reliability of the construction data n Q2.
We model UK GDP growth in the first instance using our pragmatic GDP (O) model. On this basis we employ more conventional business modelling techniques including, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, pattern recognition and econometrics.
The saturday economist investment update august 2015 John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist - Investment Update Chart book reviews the latest ONS data and outlines the forecasts for 2015 and 2016. The Charts accompany the LinkedIn article "Ten things everyone should know about UK Investment"
Attending a job Interview for B1 and B2 Englsih learnersErika906060
It is a sample of an interview for a business english class for pre-intermediate and intermediate english students with emphasis on the speking ability.
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...Kumar Satyam
According to TechSci Research report, “India Orthopedic Devices Market -Industry Size, Share, Trends, Competition Forecast & Opportunities, 2030”, the India Orthopedic Devices Market stood at USD 1,280.54 Million in 2024 and is anticipated to grow with a CAGR of 7.84% in the forecast period, 2026-2030F. The India Orthopedic Devices Market is being driven by several factors. The most prominent ones include an increase in the elderly population, who are more prone to orthopedic conditions such as osteoporosis and arthritis. Moreover, the rise in sports injuries and road accidents are also contributing to the demand for orthopedic devices. Advances in technology and the introduction of innovative implants and prosthetics have further propelled the market growth. Additionally, government initiatives aimed at improving healthcare infrastructure and the increasing prevalence of lifestyle diseases have led to an upward trend in orthopedic surgeries, thereby fueling the market demand for these devices.
What are the main advantages of using HR recruiter services.pdfHumanResourceDimensi1
HR recruiter services offer top talents to companies according to their specific needs. They handle all recruitment tasks from job posting to onboarding and help companies concentrate on their business growth. With their expertise and years of experience, they streamline the hiring process and save time and resources for the company.
"𝑩𝑬𝑮𝑼𝑵 𝑾𝑰𝑻𝑯 𝑻𝑱 𝑰𝑺 𝑯𝑨𝑳𝑭 𝑫𝑶𝑵𝑬"
𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐬 (𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬) is a professional event agency that includes experts in the event-organizing market in Vietnam, Korea, and ASEAN countries. We provide unlimited types of events from Music concerts, Fan meetings, and Culture festivals to Corporate events, Internal company events, Golf tournaments, MICE events, and Exhibitions.
𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐬 provides unlimited package services including such as Event organizing, Event planning, Event production, Manpower, PR marketing, Design 2D/3D, VIP protocols, Interpreter agency, etc.
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⭐ 𝐅𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬:
➢ 2024 BAEKHYUN [Lonsdaleite] IN HO CHI MINH
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"𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲, 𝐚 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐣𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐲. 𝐖𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞 𝐚 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬."
What is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdfseoforlegalpillers
It is crucial for the taxpayers to understand about the TDS Return Filing Due Date, so that they can fulfill your TDS obligations efficiently. Taxpayers can avoid penalties by sticking to the deadlines and by accurate filing of TDS. Timely filing of TDS will make sure about the availability of tax credits. You can also seek the professional guidance of experts like Legal Pillers for timely filing of the TDS Return.
[Note: This is a partial preview. To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
Leading companies such as Nike, Toyota, and Siemens are prioritizing sustainable innovation in their business models, setting an example for others to follow. In this Sustainability training presentation, you will learn key concepts, principles, and practices of sustainability applicable across industries. This training aims to create awareness and educate employees, senior executives, consultants, and other key stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, and supply chain partners, on the importance and implementation of sustainability.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Develop a comprehensive understanding of the fundamental principles and concepts that form the foundation of sustainability within corporate environments.
2. Explore the sustainability implementation model, focusing on effective measures and reporting strategies to track and communicate sustainability efforts.
3. Identify and define best practices and critical success factors essential for achieving sustainability goals within organizations.
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1. Introduction and Key Concepts of Sustainability
2. Principles and Practices of Sustainability
3. Measures and Reporting in Sustainability
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Remote sensing and monitoring are changing the mining industry for the better. These are providing innovative solutions to long-standing challenges. Those related to exploration, extraction, and overall environmental management by mining technology companies Odisha. These technologies make use of satellite imaging, aerial photography and sensors to collect data that might be inaccessible or from hazardous locations. With the use of this technology, mining operations are becoming increasingly efficient. Let us gain more insight into the key aspects associated with remote sensing and monitoring when it comes to mining.
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RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...BBPMedia1
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Retail media wordt gezien als het nieuwe advertising-medium en ook mediabureaus richten massaal retail media-afdelingen op. Merken die niet in de betreffende winkel liggen staan ook nog niet in de rij om op de retail media netwerken te adverteren. Marvin belicht de uitdagingen die er zijn om echt aansluiting te vinden op die markt van non-endemic advertising.
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2. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The Saturday Economist on Brexit
At the Saturday Economist we always like
to keep you in the picture. In this April
report, we endeavour to deliver an
objective and dispassionate analysis of the
pros and cons of Brexit.
We provide the facts and information to
assist the decision making process for all
our readers. No polemics just the facts.
We assess the implications of leaving the
EU and outline the alternative relationships
that could ensue - the Danish model, the
Swiss Model, the Icelandic model and the
Turkish option.
In addition we will consider the impact on
UK growth, investment, trade, Sterling,
immigration, sovereignty and security of
the in-out decision.
Don’t miss this important update … all
the information you need to make an
informed decision.
3. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
On Brexit … The Spectrum of Issues …
?
Business Economic
SocialPolitical
Immigration
NHS
We think it is important to differentiate
the main issues into business,
economic, political and social …
Trade
Investment
Uncertainty
Sovereignty …
Who governs Britain …
Growth
Jobs
Inflation
Trade
Deficits
Current Account
Borrowing
Sterling
4. The Saturday Economist … we always keep you in the picture.
12th March 2016
Who governs Britain …
Avoiding jingoism and post imperial
calls to action …
5. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The Key Question …
?
Should the UK remain a member of
the EU or leave the EU …
6. Should the UK remain a member of the EU
or leave the EU …
The Key Question …
The polls suggest the outcome will be
pretty close on the 23rd June ….
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
7. Should the UK remain a member of the EU
or leave the EU …
The Key Question …
The FT poll is rather more supportive
of the “Remain” case …
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
8. The Key Question …
It is not, or should not be a choice
between Europe and the Rest of the
World …. we need to trade with both
…
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
9. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
Geographically we are part of Europe
like it or not … “Gravitational pull” has
a significant impact on trade flows …
11. Eurozone Q4 2015Latest
Data
GDP 1.5%
Growth Rate
2015
1.6%
2016
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
-0.1 1.3 -0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.97
Our Forecasts - Euro GDP Growth this year
2014
0.9%
2015
1.5%
… and by quarter %
Growth Rate
Data
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1.71.61.5
0.9
-0.4-0.6
1.6
1.9
Euro GDP
Eurozone GDP Change year on year … Eurozone Inflation …
Date of Next Update :
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1.2
0.50.00.4
1.3
2.5
2.7
1.6
Euro Inflation
Release Date
14th August
A slow recovery is taking place.
Growth in Ireland was 7.5% and in
Spain it was 4.5% in 2015 …
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
13. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
How difficult is it to leave …
?
So how difficult is it to leave?…
14. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
Article 50
Simple really, we invoke Article 50 …
An Article with 5 clauses and about
270 words …
15. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
How long will it take …
?
How long will it take to exit?
We have no idea. it has never been done before. Exit
could take up to two years to organise but it could
take even longer. Then we still have to negotiate a
new trade deal …
How long will a trade deal take?
That could take a further five to ten years at
least …
Canada and the EU “CETA”
The Trade deal with Canada and the EU
has taken almost ten years to negotiate …
it could take a similar period to determine
the UK : EU deal …
USA and the EU “TTIP”
The Trade deal with USA and the EU is an
ongoing negotiation which began in 2013
… there is no guarantee of the US
commitment to a Free Trade Deal on the
scale envisaged by the EU …
USA and the UK …
There is no reason why the UK would be
able to jump the UK in bilateral talks prior
to a satisfactory out turn for a “TTIP” deal
…
Trans Pacific Partnership…
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a
trade agreement among twelve Pacific
Rim countries signed on 4 February 2016
in Auckland, New Zealand, after seven
years of negotiations.
Historically, the TPP is an expansion of
the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic
Partnership Agreement (TPSEP or P4),
which was signed by Brunei, Chile, New
Zealand, and Singapore in 2005
Ten Years
Ten Years
Ten Years?
16. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
How long will it take … The “Leave” deal is an impossible ask!
?
Basis of ”Leave Camp” Deal ..
The Leave Camp appear to want …
Free trade in goods …
Free trade in Services …
Free movement of Capital …
Free from payments into the EU …
Free from commitment to Free movement of Labour …
Free from product and labour regulation …
That could take forever …
And an impossible “give”
17. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
And what of free trade deals with the rest of the world …
?
Iceland and China
Iceland negotiated a Free Trade deal with
China. It took six years for trade flows
valued at $180 million largely confined to
fish, Ice and Igloos.
Even then there were restrictions on
paper products to China and food
products into Iceland …
Six Years
18. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
Be careful what you wish for … the deficits could just get worse
?
UK and China …
The UK trade deficit with China was £25
billion in 2015. The UK exported £13
billion worth of goods into China …
China exported £38 billion of goods into
the UK even with EU tariffs in place …
The deficit could just get worse …
UK and Norway …
The UK trade deficit with Norway was
£10 billion in 2015. The UK exported £3
billion worth of goods into Norway in
2015.
Norway exported £13 billion of goods into
the UK even with EU restrictions in place
…
The deficit could just get worse …
UK and Canada …
The UK trade deficit with Canada was £3
billion in 2015. The UK exported £4 billion
worth of goods into Norway in 2015.
Canada exported £7 billion of goods into
the UK even with EU restrictions in place
…
The deficit could just get worse …
UK and Japan …
The UK trade deficit with Japan was over
£2 billion in 2015. The UK exported £5
billion worth of goods into Japan in 2015.
Japan exported £7 billion of goods into
the UK even with EU restrictions in place
…
The deficit could just get worse …
China
Trade deficit
£25 billion
Norway
Trade deficit
£10 billion Canada
Trade deficit
£ 4 billion
Japan
Trade deficit
£ 2 billion
19. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
How important is the EU to the UK and vice versa …
?
20. Comparative Sizes
Size of economies (GDP, $bn)
The EU is the largest trading block in
the world … excluding the UK it would
be the second largest trading block in
the world after the USA ….
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
21. Comparative Sizes
Size of economies (GDP, $bn)
3,860
2,836
G
erm
any
France
4,616
Japan
2,597
The UK is the fifth (or sixth) largest
economy in the world … after USA.
China, Germany, Japan and possibly
France …
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
22. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030
North America
Asean
China
Japan
Europe
Share of World GDP
It is true to say, Europe’s share of
world GDP is declining as the ASEAN
block expands …
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
23. China China will dominate the world growth
story in the years ahead …
It is the second largest economy in
the world …
With a population of 1.3 billion …
China struggles to enter the world top
eighty in terms of GDP per capital …
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
24. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture
6th February 2016
China
Return of the Middle Kingdom …
We talk of the return of the Middle
Kingdom …
25. China - Return of the Middle Kingdom
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2003 2014
22%
25%
29%
22%
33%
17%
9%
5% 5%
15%
13%
22%
24%
29%
23%
37%
28%
24%
22%
23%
21%
18%
Share
Share of World Population
Share of World GDP
Data : Maddison A. Contours of the World Economy 1 - 2030 AD OUP
In the 17th century and in the early
19th century … China was the largest
economy in the world …
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
26. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture
6th February 2016
The importance of being ASEAN …
The ASEAN trade block is of critical
importance to China …
27. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture
6th February 2016
China
Return of the Middle Kingdom …
Collectively the ASEAN block
accounts for 50% of world population
and 30% of World GDP …
Growing at 4.5% per annum …
28. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture
6th February 2016
China
Return of the Middle Kingdom …
The UK is not guaranteed a trade slot
in the ASEAN trade group …
The ASEAN block accounts for just
16% of UK exports …
29. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
How important is the EU to the UK and vice versa …
?
30. Share of EU Exports
Others
38%
4%
6% 5%3%2%3%
China
8%
USA
15%
UK
16%
UK USA China Japan Korea Norway
Russia Switzerland Turkey Others
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The UK accounts for 16% of EU
exports …
31. Share of UK Exports
3%2%5%
7%
ASEAN
16%
North America
20%
EU
47%
EU North America ASEAN MENA
Other Europe South America Other nc
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The EU accounts for 47% of UK
exports …
A wider Europe accounts for 52% of
UK exports …
Europe
52%
32. Trade Data 2015
£ billion UK to EU % GDP EU to UK % GDP
Deficit /
Surplus
Exports
Goods
£134.4 7.2% £223.4 1.6% -£89.0
Exports
Services
£85.7 4.6% £65.7 0.4% + £20.0
Exports
Total
£220.1 11.8% £289.1 2.0% -£69.0
Trade Data : ONS 2015
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
EU trade with UK accounts for 2% of
EU GDP …
UK trade with EU accounts for 12% of
UK GDP …
33. Share of UK Exports
North America
Europe
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
It is true to say, the EU share of UK
exports is falling …
34. Share of Trade
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
UK Share of Trade with EU … Trade in Goods
Share of Exports
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
We expect the trend to continue in the
years ahead, whilst the EU share of
imports is likely to be maintained at
around 55% …
Share of Imports
Remain basis
35. Share Trade
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
UK Share of Trade with EU … Trade in Services
Share of Exports
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
Trade in services are expected to be
much more stable … EU 48% of
service sector imports
UK exports to the EU around 40% of
total exports …
Share of Imports
Remain basis
36. Share Trade
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
UK Share of Trade with EU … Trade in Goods and Services
Share of Exports
Share of Imports
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
This is the pattern of trade in goods
and services with the EU …
Import shares are steady whilst the
UK develops greater trade links with
the rest of the world …
Remain basis
37. UK Trade Total
Total Goods Trade …
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
£ million
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
This is the pattern of total trade in
goods … the deficits set to continue
and expand …
38. UK Trade Total
Total Services Trade …
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
£ million
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
This is the pattern of total trade in
services … the surplus set to
continue and expand …
39. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Trade with EU
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Trade in Goods Deficit with EU …
The UK has a huge deficit trade in
goods with the EU … we expect a
deficit of £100 billion in 2016 …
40. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Trade in Services Surplus with EU …
Trade with EU
The UK has a huge surplus in
services with the EU … we expect +
£20 billion surplus in 2016 …
41. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Trade with EU
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Trade in Goods and Services Deficit with EU …
The UK has a huge deficit in goods
and services with the EU …
42. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
UK Trade with EU
£ million
This is the hard data behind the
charts!
At the Saturday Economist … we
don’t just make up the numbers …
43. Cost of Eu Contributions
Trade with EU
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
This is the pattern of EU trade in
goods … with member companies
44. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Trade with Europe ...
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
-30 -22.5 -15 -7.5 0 7.5 15
UK trade deficits with other members states
Goods and services, £ billion, 2014
This is the wider analysis …
45. Trade with EU
The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
This is the pattern of trade in goods
and services by product …
46. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
The importance of FDI
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Figure 1 and 2 Overseas net stock of assets held in the UK and earnings received
0
10
20
30
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Fig 1 EU Assets in UK … Fig 2 EU Earnings in UK …
0
120
240
360
480
600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Fig 3 UK Assets in EU …
0
10
20
30
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Fig 4 UK Earnings in EU …
Figure 3 and 4 UK net stock of assets held overseas and earnings received
This is the pattern of foreign
investment and earnings …
47. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
How much does it cost the UK …
?
48. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Costs of EU
Cost of EU Contributions
£350 million per week?
How much does it cost the UK …
49. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Costs of EU
Cost of EU Contributions
• Gross Cost £18.0 billion
• Rebate £ 5.0 billion
• Receipts £ 4.5 billion
• Net Cost £ 8.5 billion
• Receipts relate to farming subsidies and poor area allocation. Figures are for 2015. Source HM Treasury "European Union Finances
2015. • Net cost - £23 million per day
How much does it cost the UK …
£350 million per week?
£350 million per week (£18 billion per
annum) is the Gross cost before
rebate and receipts …
50. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Costs of EU
Cost of EU Contributions
• Full Cost £18.0 billion
• Rebate £ 5.0 billion
• Receipts £ 4.5 billion
• Net Cost £ 8.5 billion
• Receipts relate to farming subsidies and poor area allocation. Figures are for 2015. Source HM Treasury "European Union Finances
2015. • Net cost - £23 million per day
How much does it cost the UK …
£160 million per week?
The net cost is £8.5 billion…
More like £160 million per week …
51. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
How much does the EU cost …
?
£160 million per week but is that
value for money …
52. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Costs of EU and Allocation
€ 132,961.30
2014
c 1% of GDP
Financing of the general budget and EU expenditure by member state (2014)[29]
6%
14%
Internal Policies
10%
Structural Fund
30%
CAP
40%
CAP Structural Fund
Internal Policies Pre Accession / Compensation
Admin
The EU budget is €133 billion that’s
1% of EU GDP approximately …
Most of which is accounted for by
the common agricultural budget …
Just 6% is spent on administration …
How much does the EU cost …
53. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
EU Budget Who Pays
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Italy
Sweden
Austria
Denmark
Finland
Ireland
Cyprus
Croatia
Malta
Spain
Estonia
Slovenia
Latvia
Slovakia
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Belgium
Czech Republic
Portugal
Romania
Greece
Hungary
Poland
-18,000 -13,500 -9,000 -4,500 0 4,500 9,000 13,500 18,000
Winners and Losers
Financing of the general budget and EU expenditure by member state (2014)[29]
Germany is the largest contributor …
Poland, Hungary the largest
beneficiaries …
54. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The Big Issues …
?
So what are the big issues …
55. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
The Big Issues …
Regulation costing £27 billion!
Working Time Directive
Temporary Agency Workers Directive
Energy and Climate Change
56. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
The Big Issues …
Here are the claims of savings from
the leave camp …
We haven’t verified
these numbers …
57. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
The Big Issues …
And the proposals for change
58. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
The Big Issues …
Chemicals and Health
Emissions Trading System
Common Security
and Defence Policy
The Bigger list …
60. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
The Options
Current Deal
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Canada Turkey
61. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
The Options
1.1 This paper looks at the potential models for the UK’s relationship with the European
Union, if there were to be a vote to leave. It provides examples of countries that are not
members of the EU but have other arrangements with it – specifically Norway, Switzerland,
Canada and Turkey – and describes those arrangements. It also looks at a possible
relationship based only on World Trade Organisation membership.
1.2 These models offer different balances in terms of advantages, obligations and
influence. If the result of the referendum were a vote to leave, we would seek the best
possible balance of advantage for the UK. However, regardless of the preferred outcome
the UK seeks, the precedents clearly indicate that we would need to make a number of trade-offs:
•• in return for full access to the EU’s free-trade Single Market in key UK industries, we
would have to accept the free movement of people;
•• access to the Single Market would require us to implement its rules. But from
outside, the UK would no longer have a vote on these rules. And there is no
guarantee that we could fully replicate our existing cooperation in other areas, such
as cross-border action against criminals;
•• full access to the Single Market would require us to continue to contribute to the EU’s
programmes and budget;
•• an approach based on a Free Trade Agreement would not come with the same level
of obligations, but would mean UK companies had reduced access to the Single
Market in key sectors such as services (almost 80 per cent of the UK economy),1 and
would face higher costs;
••we would lose our preferential access to 53 markets2 outside the EU with which
the EU has Free Trade Agreements. This would take years to renegotiate, with no
guarantee that the UK would obtain terms as good as those we enjoy today; and
•• in order to maintain the rights of UK citizens living, working and travelling in other EU
countries, we would almost certainly have to accept reciprocal arrangements for their
citizens in the UK.
1.3 It would take up to a decade or more to negotiate a new agreement with the EU and to
replace our existing trade deals with other countries. Moreover, each of the alternative
models would come with significant obligations and costs for the UK:
•• the Norway model has considerable access to the Single Market but not in
agriculture and fisheries. It does not give access to the EU’s trade deals with
countries outside the EU and still requires customs checks on goods crossing into
the EU. It also involves making a significant contribution to EU spending, accepting
free movement of people, and taking on EU rules without having a vote on them;
•• bilateral agreements vary, but none provide full access to services, which constitute
almost 80 per cent of the UK economy. Higher levels of access to the Single Market
involve implementing EU rules in domestic legislation, accepting free movement (as
in the case of Switzerland), and in some cases making contributions to EU spending.
The EU-Canada Trade Agreement provides reduced access to the Single Market for
example in services and agriculture; and
•• if we could not reach agreement with the EU on a new arrangement, our trading
arrangements would revert to WTO rules. This would provide the most complete
break with the EU. It does not entail accepting free movement, budgetary
contributions or implementing EU rules. But it would cause a major economic shock
to the UK. WTO rules mean that the EU, and all countries with which we currently
have trade deals, would have no choice but to apply WTO tariffs on exports from
the UK – putting our companies at a competitive disadvantage. Meanwhile, the UK
would face a difficult choice between either raising tariffs on imports from the EU
or lowering tariffs on imports from all countries. Raising tariffs would have knockon
effects on UK jobs and incomes, as well as on the attractiveness of the UK as a
destination for international investment. Lowering tariffs would deny the UK revenue,
and undermine our negotiating position in future trade deals.
1.4 Under any of these alternatives, there would also be a non-economic cost, in terms of
the UK’s security and strength. The European Arrest Warrant and the Schengen Informatio
System, for instance, allow our law-enforcement agencies to obtain and act on information
from their EU counterparts. Even if over time we manage to negotiate replacement bilatera
agreements, there is no guarantee that we could fully replace our access to current EU
measures for police and security cooperation. And we would no longer be able, as we
are now, to use the EU as one of our major tools, like our membership of the UN or other
international organisations, to project UK influence in the world, or to use the EU’s
economic
weight to impose sanctions, such as those it has imposed on Russia or Iran.
1.5 We need to assess the benefits offered by any alternative model against what the UK’s
membership of the EU gives us now. The UK Government believes that no existing model
outside the EU comes close to providing the same balance
March 2016
62. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The Big Ask … from the “Leave” camp …
?
A Free Trade Agreement for goods and services …
A Free Trade Agreement for Capital…
Restrictions on Labour migration…
No EU budget payment …
Free from EU regulation on goods, labour and capital …
An impossible ask …
An impossible give …
An impossible deal …
64. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
50 % of trade is at stake
With no guarantee of post exit trade deals
Trade deficits with China, Japan, Norway and Canada could get worse
Cars, Aerospace and Financial Services particularly at risk
65. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Costs of EU
Trade and Tariffs
The tariffs at issue …
66. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment … at risk
Uncertainty … in the short term
Strategic … Motor, Aerospace and financial in the medium term …
67. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
The Big Risks
Growth and Jobs …
CBI …
3 million jobs related to EU
1 million jobs could be lost
The Economic estimates vary widely and
wildly …
The CBI estimates that 3 million jobs are
related to trade with the EU …
Of which 1 million could be lost in the
worst case …
68. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Costs of EU
This is the range according to
the PwC CBI sensitivities …
69. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
Uncertainty short term
Strategic … long term
3 Financial Services
70. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Growth
Financial Services …
Relocation
Passporting
Financial Services could be
the biggest area of impact,
w i t h m a n y i n s t i t u t i o n s
relocating to ensure Passport
access is maintained …
It will also be the toughest
area of negotiation with strong
competition from EU financial
centres in Paris and elsewhere
…
The Big Risks …
71. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
Uncertainty short term
Strategic … long term
3 Financial Services …
4 Trade Deficits …
72. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .comDate of Next Update : 10th October
Heading in the wrong direction …
For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
The Big Risks …
Trade deficits are likely
to deteriorate in a free
trade world …
73. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
Uncertainty short term
Strategic … long term
3 Financial Services …
4 Trade Deficits …
5 Capital Account
“Putting more pressure on the capital account”
74. -7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
UK Current Account Deficit % of GDP
For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
The UK has a significant current account
deficit over 5% in 2015 …
We are already reliant on the “kindness of
strangers” to finance the deficit holding 25%
of UK Gilts and 50% of UK capital markets
…
The Big Risks …
75. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
Uncertainty short term
Strategic … long term
3 Financial Services …
4 Trade Deficits …
5 Capital Account
6 Sterling
76. MarchLatest
DataSterling
£1.4514
Dollar Spot
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sterling Dollar Daily Rate
For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Dollar Rate $
Resistance
$1.6800
$1.5000
Support
$1.70 resistance level
Which way for Sterling?
$1.50 support level
Technical
Short Rates
Long Rates
Money
Capital Flows
Portfolio
-0.15 0 0.15 0.3
Sterling Dollar
18th March
T h e r e a r e s o m e
suggestions Sterling
could fall by 20% …
The Big Risks …
77. 0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sterling Euro Daily Rate
Latest
DataSterling
€1.2853
Euro Spot
For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Euro Rate
€1.28 resistance / support level
Which way for Sterling?
€
March Resistance
$1.4000
$1.2800
Support
€1.40 resistance level
Technical
Short Rates
Long Rates
Money
Capital Flows
Portfolio
-0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5
Sterling Euro
18th March
In the short term as a
result of uncertainty
and volatility … in the
long term as a result of
capital outflows ..
The Big Risks …
78. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
Uncertainty short term
Strategic … long term
3 Financial Services …
4 Trade Deficits …
5 Capital Account
6 Sterling
7 Agriculture and the CAP …
79. Common Agricultural Policy
CAP accounts for 40%
of EU spend …
Set to fall to 30% over
the next five years
N F U i s v o t i n g t o
remain …
With large proportion of
trade with EU at risk …
Farm subsidies £1.5
billion could be lost if
Brexit happens…
But could be funded by
HMG from EU payment
savings …
80. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
NFU pro 50% incomes dependent
Key markets could be
l o s t i f t a r i ff s a r e
imposed …
The Big Risks …
81. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
Uncertainty short term
Strategic … long term
3 Financial Services …
4 Trade Deficits …
5 Capital Account
6 Sterling
7 Agriculture and the CAP …
8 Fisheries CFP
82. The Saturday Economist on Brexit and Fishing …
The Big Risks …
It’s not just about “our” fish …
83. The Saturday Economist on Brexit and Fishing …
The Big Risks …
It’s not just about “our” fish …
World wide agreements are
necessary
84. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
Uncertainty short term
Strategic … long term
3 Financial Services …
4 Trade Deficits …
5 Capital Account
6 Sterling
7 Agriculture and the CAP …
8 Fisheries CFP
9 Migration
85. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Immigration
The Big Risks …
N e t m i g r a t i o n i s
300,000 …
86. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Immigration
The Big Risks …
Almost 200,000 is
study related …
87. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Immigration
The Big Risks …
Almost half from the
EU …
88. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Immigration
Total EU immigration is
260,000 …
The Big Risks …
89. For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Immigration
The Big Risks …
We have no control over borders …
We must control EU immigration …
Puts pressure on schools and NHS
A drain on welfare …
Deflationary - low level of pay …
Taking “British” jobs
We do have control over borders …
Free movement of labour is an EU principle
NHS is reliant on immigration to maintain staff levels …
Some welfare access in place re timing and pricing …
Provides essential labour pool …
UK approaching “Full Employment” …
We have more vacancies than claimants …
Immigration a source of growth to fund Schools and NHS
Leave … Remain …
The Arguments
90. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The Big Risks …
?
9 Migration
10 Inflation
Immigration cap could push up pay
Tariff reductions could lower prices
11 Timetable
It will take a long time to set up ..
China - Iceland $180m
Canada - EU - CETA 10 years
12 Growth …
Will be hit - trade & investment
Motor, Aerospace (Airbus) & Finance
13 Jobs …
3.0 to 3.5 m jobs dependent on EU trade
14 Balance of Payments
Will deteriorate faster
15 Government Borrowing
largely neutral
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
Uncertainty short term
Strategic … long term
3 Financial Services …
4 Trade Deficits …
5 Capital Account
6 Sterling
7 Agriculture and the CAP …
8 Fisheries CFP
91. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
The Big Risks …
?
9 Migration
10 Inflation
Immigration cap could push up pay
Tariff reductions could lower prices
11 Timetable
It will take a long time to set up ..
China - Iceland $180m
Canada - EU - CETA 10 years
12 Growth …
Will be hit - trade & investment
Motor, Aerospace (Airbus) & Finance
13 Jobs …
3.0 to 3.5 million jobs dependent on EU tr
14 Balance of Payments
Will deteriorate faster
15 Government Borrowing
largely neutral
16 Scotland …
Threat to union?
17 Science Tech
Neutral - subsidies lost could
be HMG funded
18 Security …
Brexit won’t help
19 Peace …
NATO and EU issues
EU is a force for peace internal
NATO is a force for peace external
20 Sovereignty
A political issue
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
Uncertainty short term
Strategic … long term
3 Financial Services …
4 Trade Deficits …
5 Capital Account
6 Sterling
7 Agriculture and the CAP …
8 Fisheries CFP
92. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
?
Leave says the UK is “powerless to prevent
laws that damage our country”. But the UK
enjoys 12.7% of votes in the EU Council, a veto
in key areas and influence on many issues.
The Big Risks … Sovereignty
In the UK data suggest that from 1997 to 2009
6.8% of primary legislation (Statutes) and
14.1% of secondary legislation (Statutory
Instruments) had a role in implementing EU
obligations, although the degree of involvement
varied from passing reference to explicit
implementation.
Source How much legislation comes from Europe?
House of Commons Library October 2010
Who governs Britain?
The leave camp take exception to .
The Working Time Directive
The Temporary Agency Workers Directive
The Energy and Climate Change legislation but
Most of these are welcomed by progressive
business
Between 1993 and 2014, 64.7 per cent of UK law can be
deemed to be EU-influenced. EU regulations accounted for
59.3 per cent of all UK law. UK laws implementing EU
directives accounted for 5.4 per cent.
This body of legislation consists of 49,699 exclusively ‘EU’
regulations and 4,532 UK measures which implement EU
directives.
This figure is important because EU regulations are
transposed into national law without passing through
Parliament. Hence, they do not appear in the recent
calculation by the House of Commons Library which
estimates the proportion of EU legislation at 13.3 per cent.3
The 13.3 per cent
Source Business for Britain Tim Philpott
The level of influence is confused …
93. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
?
The CBI
The EEF
The SMMT
The NFU
The Big Risks …
Voting to remain …
94. The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
On Brexit … The Spectrum of Issues …
?
Business Economic
SocialPolitical
Immigration
NHS
We think it is important to differentiate
the main issues into business,
economic, political and social …
Trade
Investment
Uncertainty
Sovereignty …
Who governs Britain …
Growth
Jobs
Inflation
Trade
Deficits
Current Account
Borrowing
Sterling
“Whatever we may think of the
political and social arguments …
There is no “Business Case” for
Brexit"