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The new (?) agronomy
and new (?) research methods
Ric Coe
World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)
Africa RISING training on participatory research methods
3 - 4 October, 2016
Lilongwe, Malawi
The first 150 years
1925 1957 1990 2016
?1850
Conceptual frame ⇒ methods
• There is ‘a treatment effect’ to be estimated
– Get a precise and unbiased estimate
• Variation around the effect is ‘error’
– Control as much as possible
– Replicate and average to reduce impact of the variation
⇒ Do a ‘Fisher-type’ randomised experiment.
• The effect may depend on an environment factor (eg soil type)
⇒Do a MET in a small number of environments
Much of what we know in agronomy was discovered or
confirmed with these methods – they are pretty good!
Treatment Response
The N x P space of research methods
PLeveloffarmerparticipation
None
Low
High
N number of sites/participants
≈c exp(number of environment/context factors)
1 Few Many
Conventional
research
Implications of systems approach 1:
integrating social and biophysical
• Social responses (farmer’s assessments and
options) in addition to biophysical
⇒ Participatory experimentation
The N x P space of research methods
PLeveloffarmerparticipation
None
Low
High
1 Few Many
Conventional
research
Participatory
research
N number of sites/participants
≈c exp(number of environment/context factors)
• More complex influence diagrams
Treatment Response
Ecological
Environment
Social
factors
Implications of systems approach 1:
integrating social and biophysical
Farmer
choices
Yield
Yield
response
Soil
quality
Management
quality
Inputs P+D weather
wealth gender Attitude to
innovation
Landscape
ecology
District
Malawi legumes example
• More complex influence diagrams
Treatment Response
Ecological
Environment
Social
factors
⇒ • Merge survey and experimental methods [De
Datta et al 1978]
• Use qualitative and quantitative methods as
appropriate
Implications of systems approach 1:
integrating social and biophysical
• Options always interact with Socio-ecological
context
– No ‘one size fits all’
– Few optima to discover
– Information on alternatives and tradeoffs rather
than recommendations
Implications of systems approach 2:
recognise OxC interactions
⇒ • Plan METs that sample the heterogeneity of
contexts
• Measure responses that matter
• Analyse data to focus on interactions and tradeoffs.
Bambara spacing
Who assesses the trade-off?
Agronomist ⇒ implicit choices in design and
analysis
Economist ⇒ choices of values and utility
Farmer ⇒ concentrate on proving information in
useful way
• Uncertainty will always be there
• Quantify it
• Make it part of the message
Implications of systems approach 3:
beyond means – risk and variation
⇒ • Use sufficient N to estimate variation and
risk.
• Use analysis methods that present and
interpret variation as well as means
Planning effective
METs
Hypotheses of important factors
Classify:
• Manipulable
• Spatial
• Predictable
• Unpredictable
[Vanlauwe, Coe and Giller 2016]
The N x P space of research methods
PLeveloffarmerparticipation
None
Low
High
1 Few Many
Conventional
research
Participatory
research
Precision ag
research
N number of sites/participants
≈c exp(number of environment/context factors)
The N x P space of research methods
PLeveloffarmerparticipation
None
Low
High
1 Few Many
Conventional
research
Participatory
research
Precision ag
research
? This is where
we need to
be!
N number of sites/participants
≈c exp(number of environment/context factors)
Implications for methods
Often (not always):
• Large N participatory trials
– scaling benefits
• Driven by hypotheses based on system
understanding
• Design implications – simplicity, flexibility
• Organisational implications - crowd source, R
in D, FRN,…

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The new agronomy and new research methods?

  • 1. The new (?) agronomy and new (?) research methods Ric Coe World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) Africa RISING training on participatory research methods 3 - 4 October, 2016 Lilongwe, Malawi
  • 2. The first 150 years 1925 1957 1990 2016 ?1850
  • 3. Conceptual frame ⇒ methods • There is ‘a treatment effect’ to be estimated – Get a precise and unbiased estimate • Variation around the effect is ‘error’ – Control as much as possible – Replicate and average to reduce impact of the variation ⇒ Do a ‘Fisher-type’ randomised experiment. • The effect may depend on an environment factor (eg soil type) ⇒Do a MET in a small number of environments Much of what we know in agronomy was discovered or confirmed with these methods – they are pretty good! Treatment Response
  • 4. The N x P space of research methods PLeveloffarmerparticipation None Low High N number of sites/participants ≈c exp(number of environment/context factors) 1 Few Many Conventional research
  • 5. Implications of systems approach 1: integrating social and biophysical • Social responses (farmer’s assessments and options) in addition to biophysical ⇒ Participatory experimentation
  • 6. The N x P space of research methods PLeveloffarmerparticipation None Low High 1 Few Many Conventional research Participatory research N number of sites/participants ≈c exp(number of environment/context factors)
  • 7. • More complex influence diagrams Treatment Response Ecological Environment Social factors Implications of systems approach 1: integrating social and biophysical
  • 8. Farmer choices Yield Yield response Soil quality Management quality Inputs P+D weather wealth gender Attitude to innovation Landscape ecology District Malawi legumes example
  • 9. • More complex influence diagrams Treatment Response Ecological Environment Social factors ⇒ • Merge survey and experimental methods [De Datta et al 1978] • Use qualitative and quantitative methods as appropriate Implications of systems approach 1: integrating social and biophysical
  • 10. • Options always interact with Socio-ecological context – No ‘one size fits all’ – Few optima to discover – Information on alternatives and tradeoffs rather than recommendations Implications of systems approach 2: recognise OxC interactions ⇒ • Plan METs that sample the heterogeneity of contexts • Measure responses that matter • Analyse data to focus on interactions and tradeoffs.
  • 11. Bambara spacing Who assesses the trade-off? Agronomist ⇒ implicit choices in design and analysis Economist ⇒ choices of values and utility Farmer ⇒ concentrate on proving information in useful way
  • 12. • Uncertainty will always be there • Quantify it • Make it part of the message Implications of systems approach 3: beyond means – risk and variation ⇒ • Use sufficient N to estimate variation and risk. • Use analysis methods that present and interpret variation as well as means
  • 13. Planning effective METs Hypotheses of important factors Classify: • Manipulable • Spatial • Predictable • Unpredictable [Vanlauwe, Coe and Giller 2016]
  • 14. The N x P space of research methods PLeveloffarmerparticipation None Low High 1 Few Many Conventional research Participatory research Precision ag research N number of sites/participants ≈c exp(number of environment/context factors)
  • 15. The N x P space of research methods PLeveloffarmerparticipation None Low High 1 Few Many Conventional research Participatory research Precision ag research ? This is where we need to be! N number of sites/participants ≈c exp(number of environment/context factors)
  • 16. Implications for methods Often (not always): • Large N participatory trials – scaling benefits • Driven by hypotheses based on system understanding • Design implications – simplicity, flexibility • Organisational implications - crowd source, R in D, FRN,…