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The Future of Things
 how everywhere changes everything

              Jason Griffey
Head of Library Information Technology
University of Tennessee at Chattanooga

         Homewood Public Library
           September 21, 2012
Talking Points
Talking Points
• numbers
Talking Points
• numbers
• a post-pc world
Talking Points
• numbers
• a post-pc world
• the futurist’s dilemma
Talking Points
• numbers
• a post-pc world
• the futurist’s dilemma
• example hardware
Talking Points
• numbers
• a post-pc world
• the futurist’s dilemma
• example hardware
• conclusions
everything is amazing...
numbers
Chart 2




         0.24%               Type of Device on
     2.89%                   Campus Network
         18.25%

39.31%                            2011
                    39.32%   Macintosh OSes
                             Windows OSes
                             Mobile Devices
                             Game Consoles
                             Other (Mostly Linux)
Chart 2




         0.24%               Type of Device on
     2.89%                   Campus Network
         18.25%

39.31%                            2011
                    39.32%   Macintosh OSes
                             Windows OSes
                             Mobile Devices
                             Game Consoles
                             Other (Mostly Linux)
Chart 2




         0.24%               Type of Device on
     2.89%                   Campus Network
         18.25%

39.31%                            2011
                    39.32%   Macintosh OSes
                             Windows OSes
                             Mobile Devices
                             Game Consoles
                             Other (Mostly Linux)
Chart 2




         0.24%               Type of Device on
     2.89%                   Campus Network
         18.25%

39.31%                            2011
                    39.32%   Macintosh OSes
                             Windows OSes
                             Mobile Devices
                             Game Consoles
                             Other (Mostly Linux)
Chart 2




         0.24%               Type of Device on
     2.89%                   Campus Network
         18.25%

39.31%                            2011
                    39.32%   Macintosh OSes
                             Windows OSes
                             Mobile Devices
                             Game Consoles
                             Other (Mostly Linux)
Chart 2




         0.24%               Type of Device on
     2.89%                   Campus Network
         18.25%

39.31%                            2011
                    39.32%   Macintosh OSes
                             Windows OSes
                             Mobile Devices
                             Game Consoles
                             Other (Mostly Linux)
Chart 2




         0.39%               Type of Device on
     2.17%                   Campus Network
         18.26%

42.59%                            2012
                    36.58%
                             Macintosh OSes
                             Windows OSes
                             Mobile Devices
                             Game Consoles
                             Other (Mostly Linux)
0           1000   2000   3000
ChromeOS

     Zune

     Nook

windowsCE

   Generic

      Palm

 HPWebOS

 Windows7
               41
     Kindle    26
  KindleFire

 Blackberry

    No type

    Android

       Droid

        iPod

        iPad

      iPhone

                    2011   2012
0           1000   2000   3000
ChromeOS

     Zune

     Nook

windowsCE

   Generic

      Palm

 HPWebOS

 Windows7
               41
     Kindle    26
  KindleFire

 Blackberry

    No type

    Android

       Droid

        iPod

        iPad

      iPhone

                    2011   2012
0           1000   2000   3000
ChromeOS

     Zune

     Nook

windowsCE

   Generic

      Palm

 HPWebOS

 Windows7
               41
     Kindle    26
               69
  KindleFire   150
 Blackberry

    No type

    Android

       Droid

        iPod

        iPad

      iPhone

                     2011   2012
0           1000   2000   3000
ChromeOS

     Zune

     Nook

windowsCE

   Generic

      Palm

 HPWebOS

 Windows7
               41
     Kindle    26
               69
  KindleFire   150
 Blackberry

    No type

    Android

       Droid

        iPod

        iPad

      iPhone

                     2011   2012
0           1000   2000   3000
ChromeOS

     Zune

     Nook

windowsCE

   Generic

      Palm

 HPWebOS

 Windows7
               41
     Kindle    26
               69
  KindleFire   150
               71
 Blackberry    41
    No type

    Android

       Droid

        iPod

        iPad

      iPhone

                     2011   2012
0           1000   2000   3000
ChromeOS

     Zune

     Nook

windowsCE

   Generic

      Palm

 HPWebOS

 Windows7
               41
     Kindle    26
               69
  KindleFire   150
               71
 Blackberry    41
    No type

    Android

       Droid

        iPod

        iPad

      iPhone

                     2011   2012
0           1000         2000           3000
ChromeOS

     Zune

     Nook

windowsCE

   Generic

      Palm

 HPWebOS

 Windows7
               41
     Kindle    26
               69
  KindleFire   150                        Android 2011: 1183
               71
 Blackberry    41                         Android 2012: 1303
    No type

    Android

       Droid

        iPod

        iPad

      iPhone

                     2011   2012
0           1000         2000           3000
ChromeOS

     Zune

     Nook

windowsCE

   Generic

      Palm

 HPWebOS

 Windows7
               41
     Kindle    26
               69
  KindleFire   150                        Android 2011: 1183
               71
 Blackberry    41                         Android 2012: 1303
    No type

    Android
                                            iPod 2011: 707
       Droid
                                            iPod 2012: 587
        iPod

        iPad

      iPhone

                     2011   2012
0            1000         2000           3000
ChromeOS

     Zune

     Nook

windowsCE

   Generic

      Palm

 HPWebOS

 Windows7
               41
     Kindle    26
               69
  KindleFire   150                         Android 2011: 1183
               71
 Blackberry    41                          Android 2012: 1303
    No type

    Android
                                             iPod 2011: 707
       Droid
                                             iPod 2012: 587
        iPod

        iPad
                            839 1339
      iPhone

                     2011    2012
0            1000         2000           3000
ChromeOS

     Zune

     Nook

windowsCE

   Generic

      Palm

 HPWebOS

 Windows7
               41
     Kindle    26
               69
  KindleFire   150                         Android 2011: 1183
               71
 Blackberry    41                          Android 2012: 1303
    No type

    Android
                                             iPod 2011: 707
       Droid
                                             iPod 2012: 587
        iPod

        iPad
                            839 1339
      iPhone

                     2011    2012
0            1000            2000          3000
ChromeOS

     Zune

     Nook

windowsCE

   Generic

      Palm

 HPWebOS

 Windows7
               41
     Kindle    26
               69
  KindleFire   150                         Android 2011: 1183
               71
 Blackberry    41                          Android 2012: 1303
    No type

    Android
                                             iPod 2011: 707
       Droid
                                             iPod 2012: 587
        iPod
                            839 1339
        iPad                                 2173
      iPhone
                                                           3166
                     2011    2012
0            1000            2000          3000
ChromeOS

     Zune

     Nook

windowsCE

   Generic

      Palm

 HPWebOS

 Windows7
               41
     Kindle    26
               69
  KindleFire   150                         Android 2011: 1183
               71
 Blackberry    41                          Android 2012: 1303
    No type

    Android
                                             iPod 2011: 707
       Droid
                                             iPod 2012: 587
        iPod
                            839 1339
        iPad                                 2173
      iPhone
                                                           3166
                     2011    2012
What does a Post-PC world
look like?
“When we were an
agrarian nation, all cars
    were trucks. But as
  people moved more
         towards urban
centers, people started
      to get into cars.”
84 million iPads sold
interactions
touch
gesture
The Futurist’s Dilemma
Predictions are hard...
Predictions are hard...
...especially when they are
about the future.
                -- Yogi Bera
Arthur C. Clarke
What is the future
 of hardware?
Charlie
Stross
How Low (Power) Can You Go?
http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2012/08/how-low-
                  power-can-you-go.html
Moore’s Law
Koomey’s Law
Stross’ Extrapolation
Mike Abrash
Valve: How I Got Here,
What It’s Like, and What I’m Doing
 http://blogs.valvesoftware.com/abrash/valve-how-i-got-
         here-what-its-like-and-what-im-doing-2/
By “wearable computing” I mean mobile
computing where both computer-generated
graphics and the real world are seamlessly
overlaid in your view; there is no separate
display that you hold in your hands (think
Terminator vision). The underlying trend as
we’ve gone from desktops through laptops
and notebooks to tablets is one of having
computing available in more places, more of
the time.
By “wearable computing” I mean mobile
computing where both computer-generated
graphics and the real world are seamlessly
overlaid in your view; there is no separate
display that you hold in your hands (think
Terminator vision). The underlying trend as
we’ve gone from desktops through laptops
and notebooks to tablets is one of having
computing available in more places, more of
the time.
The logical endpoint is computing
everywhere, all the time – that is, wearable
computing – and I have no doubt that 20
years from now that will be standard,
probably through glasses or contacts, but for
all I know through some kind of more direct
neural connection.
The logical endpoint is computing
everywhere, all the time – that is, wearable
computing – and I have no doubt that 20
years from now that will be standard,
probably through glasses or contacts, but for
all I know through some kind of more direct
neural connection.
And I’m pretty confident that platform shift
will happen a lot sooner than 20 years –
almost certainly within 10, but quite likely as
little as 3-5 because the key areas – input,
          3-5,
processing/power/size, and output – that need
to evolve to enable wearable computing are
shaping up nicely, although there’s a lot still to
be figured out.
And I’m pretty confident that platform shift
will happen a lot sooner than 20 years –
almost certainly within 10, but quite likely as
little as 3-5 because the key areas – input,
          3-5,
processing/power/size, and output – that need
to evolve to enable wearable computing are
shaping up nicely, although there’s a lot still to
be figured out.
Photo by Engadget: http://www.engadget.com/2012/01/11/lumus-see-through-wearable-
                                 display-hands-on/
Photo by The Pug Father - http://flic.kr/p/biH9j2
LibraryBox Project
   http://librarybox.us
conclusions
strategies
look outside ourselves
prepare for the data
       flood
insert inspirational quotes here
Douglas Adams said...
Douglas Adams said...
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re
   born is normal and ordinary and is just a
   natural part of the way the world works.
Douglas Adams said...
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re
   born is normal and ordinary and is just a
   natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that’s invented between when
   you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and
   exciting and revolutionary and you can
   probably get a career in it.
Douglas Adams said...
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re
   born is normal and ordinary and is just a
   natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that’s invented between when
   you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and
   exciting and revolutionary and you can
   probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you’re thirty-five
   is against the natural order of things.
If I'd asked them
what they wanted,
they'd have said a
faster horse.
    -- Henry Ford
It isn’t the
consumer’s job to
know what they
want.
   - Steve Jobs
The best way to
predict the future
    is to create it.
   -Peter Drucker
Warren
 Ellis
How to See the Future
http://www.warrenellis.com/?p=14314
Thank   You
The Future of Things

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The Future of Things

  • 1. The Future of Things how everywhere changes everything Jason Griffey Head of Library Information Technology University of Tennessee at Chattanooga Homewood Public Library September 21, 2012
  • 5. Talking Points • numbers • a post-pc world • the futurist’s dilemma
  • 6. Talking Points • numbers • a post-pc world • the futurist’s dilemma • example hardware
  • 7. Talking Points • numbers • a post-pc world • the futurist’s dilemma • example hardware • conclusions
  • 9.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. Chart 2 0.24% Type of Device on 2.89% Campus Network 18.25% 39.31% 2011 39.32% Macintosh OSes Windows OSes Mobile Devices Game Consoles Other (Mostly Linux)
  • 14. Chart 2 0.24% Type of Device on 2.89% Campus Network 18.25% 39.31% 2011 39.32% Macintosh OSes Windows OSes Mobile Devices Game Consoles Other (Mostly Linux)
  • 15. Chart 2 0.24% Type of Device on 2.89% Campus Network 18.25% 39.31% 2011 39.32% Macintosh OSes Windows OSes Mobile Devices Game Consoles Other (Mostly Linux)
  • 16. Chart 2 0.24% Type of Device on 2.89% Campus Network 18.25% 39.31% 2011 39.32% Macintosh OSes Windows OSes Mobile Devices Game Consoles Other (Mostly Linux)
  • 17. Chart 2 0.24% Type of Device on 2.89% Campus Network 18.25% 39.31% 2011 39.32% Macintosh OSes Windows OSes Mobile Devices Game Consoles Other (Mostly Linux)
  • 18. Chart 2 0.24% Type of Device on 2.89% Campus Network 18.25% 39.31% 2011 39.32% Macintosh OSes Windows OSes Mobile Devices Game Consoles Other (Mostly Linux)
  • 19. Chart 2 0.39% Type of Device on 2.17% Campus Network 18.26% 42.59% 2012 36.58% Macintosh OSes Windows OSes Mobile Devices Game Consoles Other (Mostly Linux)
  • 20. 0 1000 2000 3000 ChromeOS Zune Nook windowsCE Generic Palm HPWebOS Windows7 41 Kindle 26 KindleFire Blackberry No type Android Droid iPod iPad iPhone 2011 2012
  • 21. 0 1000 2000 3000 ChromeOS Zune Nook windowsCE Generic Palm HPWebOS Windows7 41 Kindle 26 KindleFire Blackberry No type Android Droid iPod iPad iPhone 2011 2012
  • 22. 0 1000 2000 3000 ChromeOS Zune Nook windowsCE Generic Palm HPWebOS Windows7 41 Kindle 26 69 KindleFire 150 Blackberry No type Android Droid iPod iPad iPhone 2011 2012
  • 23. 0 1000 2000 3000 ChromeOS Zune Nook windowsCE Generic Palm HPWebOS Windows7 41 Kindle 26 69 KindleFire 150 Blackberry No type Android Droid iPod iPad iPhone 2011 2012
  • 24. 0 1000 2000 3000 ChromeOS Zune Nook windowsCE Generic Palm HPWebOS Windows7 41 Kindle 26 69 KindleFire 150 71 Blackberry 41 No type Android Droid iPod iPad iPhone 2011 2012
  • 25. 0 1000 2000 3000 ChromeOS Zune Nook windowsCE Generic Palm HPWebOS Windows7 41 Kindle 26 69 KindleFire 150 71 Blackberry 41 No type Android Droid iPod iPad iPhone 2011 2012
  • 26. 0 1000 2000 3000 ChromeOS Zune Nook windowsCE Generic Palm HPWebOS Windows7 41 Kindle 26 69 KindleFire 150 Android 2011: 1183 71 Blackberry 41 Android 2012: 1303 No type Android Droid iPod iPad iPhone 2011 2012
  • 27. 0 1000 2000 3000 ChromeOS Zune Nook windowsCE Generic Palm HPWebOS Windows7 41 Kindle 26 69 KindleFire 150 Android 2011: 1183 71 Blackberry 41 Android 2012: 1303 No type Android iPod 2011: 707 Droid iPod 2012: 587 iPod iPad iPhone 2011 2012
  • 28. 0 1000 2000 3000 ChromeOS Zune Nook windowsCE Generic Palm HPWebOS Windows7 41 Kindle 26 69 KindleFire 150 Android 2011: 1183 71 Blackberry 41 Android 2012: 1303 No type Android iPod 2011: 707 Droid iPod 2012: 587 iPod iPad 839 1339 iPhone 2011 2012
  • 29. 0 1000 2000 3000 ChromeOS Zune Nook windowsCE Generic Palm HPWebOS Windows7 41 Kindle 26 69 KindleFire 150 Android 2011: 1183 71 Blackberry 41 Android 2012: 1303 No type Android iPod 2011: 707 Droid iPod 2012: 587 iPod iPad 839 1339 iPhone 2011 2012
  • 30. 0 1000 2000 3000 ChromeOS Zune Nook windowsCE Generic Palm HPWebOS Windows7 41 Kindle 26 69 KindleFire 150 Android 2011: 1183 71 Blackberry 41 Android 2012: 1303 No type Android iPod 2011: 707 Droid iPod 2012: 587 iPod 839 1339 iPad 2173 iPhone 3166 2011 2012
  • 31. 0 1000 2000 3000 ChromeOS Zune Nook windowsCE Generic Palm HPWebOS Windows7 41 Kindle 26 69 KindleFire 150 Android 2011: 1183 71 Blackberry 41 Android 2012: 1303 No type Android iPod 2011: 707 Droid iPod 2012: 587 iPod 839 1339 iPad 2173 iPhone 3166 2011 2012
  • 32. What does a Post-PC world look like?
  • 33. “When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks. But as people moved more towards urban centers, people started to get into cars.”
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 38. touch
  • 39.
  • 43. Predictions are hard... ...especially when they are about the future. -- Yogi Bera
  • 45. What is the future of hardware?
  • 47. How Low (Power) Can You Go? http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2012/08/how-low- power-can-you-go.html
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 54.
  • 55. Valve: How I Got Here, What It’s Like, and What I’m Doing http://blogs.valvesoftware.com/abrash/valve-how-i-got- here-what-its-like-and-what-im-doing-2/
  • 56. By “wearable computing” I mean mobile computing where both computer-generated graphics and the real world are seamlessly overlaid in your view; there is no separate display that you hold in your hands (think Terminator vision). The underlying trend as we’ve gone from desktops through laptops and notebooks to tablets is one of having computing available in more places, more of the time.
  • 57. By “wearable computing” I mean mobile computing where both computer-generated graphics and the real world are seamlessly overlaid in your view; there is no separate display that you hold in your hands (think Terminator vision). The underlying trend as we’ve gone from desktops through laptops and notebooks to tablets is one of having computing available in more places, more of the time.
  • 58. The logical endpoint is computing everywhere, all the time – that is, wearable computing – and I have no doubt that 20 years from now that will be standard, probably through glasses or contacts, but for all I know through some kind of more direct neural connection.
  • 59. The logical endpoint is computing everywhere, all the time – that is, wearable computing – and I have no doubt that 20 years from now that will be standard, probably through glasses or contacts, but for all I know through some kind of more direct neural connection.
  • 60. And I’m pretty confident that platform shift will happen a lot sooner than 20 years – almost certainly within 10, but quite likely as little as 3-5 because the key areas – input, 3-5, processing/power/size, and output – that need to evolve to enable wearable computing are shaping up nicely, although there’s a lot still to be figured out.
  • 61. And I’m pretty confident that platform shift will happen a lot sooner than 20 years – almost certainly within 10, but quite likely as little as 3-5 because the key areas – input, 3-5, processing/power/size, and output – that need to evolve to enable wearable computing are shaping up nicely, although there’s a lot still to be figured out.
  • 62.
  • 63.
  • 64. Photo by Engadget: http://www.engadget.com/2012/01/11/lumus-see-through-wearable- display-hands-on/
  • 65.
  • 66.
  • 67.
  • 68.
  • 69.
  • 70.
  • 71.
  • 72.
  • 73. Photo by The Pug Father - http://flic.kr/p/biH9j2
  • 74.
  • 75.
  • 76.
  • 77.
  • 78.
  • 79.
  • 80.
  • 81.
  • 82.
  • 83.
  • 84. LibraryBox Project http://librarybox.us
  • 85.
  • 87.
  • 88.
  • 89.
  • 90.
  • 93. prepare for the data flood
  • 96. Douglas Adams said... 1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
  • 97. Douglas Adams said... 1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works. 2. Anything that’s invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
  • 98. Douglas Adams said... 1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works. 2. Anything that’s invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it. 3. Anything invented after you’re thirty-five is against the natural order of things.
  • 99.
  • 100. If I'd asked them what they wanted, they'd have said a faster horse. -- Henry Ford
  • 101.
  • 102. It isn’t the consumer’s job to know what they want. - Steve Jobs
  • 103.
  • 104. The best way to predict the future is to create it. -Peter Drucker
  • 106. How to See the Future http://www.warrenellis.com/?p=14314
  • 107. Thank You