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The Future of the Internet:
Big Data, Big Brother, Big Tech,
Big Telco and Big Gov…?
Life is becoming FASTER than fiction…
The future is already here!

Everything
Connected
Intelligent
Real-time
Personalized
Cross-Platform
Exponential technological progress:
more speed invariably means more risk

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ...

1 2 4 8 16 32 64
The Internet as
we knew it is
over.

Privacy & Security Failure
The power of technology now exceeds the scope of our ETHICS

“In its self-contained way, Google Glass joins the
21st-century notion that everyone is a filmmaker
with the more conventionally accepted truth that
everyone is an audience” Tribecafilm.com Sept 2013
Zero privacy + flawed security + abusive marketing
will translate into slower pace of technology adoption
which means missed and reduced opportunities
Trust

Ethics
Standards

Technology
@gleonhard
Artificial Intelligence is becoming the new normal
"We will be surrounded by computational power. So for average people, for
average users and consumers, you will be living in a world where you are
essentially living in a computer, where you are surrounded by intelligence”
Brian David Johnson (Intel Futurist reuters.com Oct 27 2013)
Connected Intelligent Real-Time Everything
Mobile devices are already our external brains
The Future of ‘Search’
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/mac-funamizus-future-of-internet-search-2013-11

via BusinessInsider.com
Interface Revolutions: unprecedented access to information
Human-Machine Evolutions: Type.Speak.Gesture.Blink.Think
3D Printing: the Napsterization of Manufacturing?
E-M-P-O-W-E-R-M-E-N-T
Connectivity is like Oxygen now… *but

http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/bulletin/by-2017-your-smartphone-will-be-smarter-than-you/

@gleonhard
E-N-S-L-A-V-E-M-E-N-T ?

@gleonhard
Huge economic potential - but we must
also consider unintended consequences
Vast societal & behavioral changes driven
by exponential technological advancements
“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the
turbulence, itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic”
*Peter Drucker
Acting based on yesterday’s logic ... full speed off the cliff
#telemedia: a much larger fishbowl
Example: the Future of Media is User-Control. Period.
Telcos, ISPs and Mobile Operators: Transient Advantages
will replace Sustainable Competitive Advantages

http://hbr.org/2013/06/transient-advantage
Our future: From linear to exponential… and lateral
Why does it take ‘a Google’ to do stuff like this?
Project Loon: Google Launches Balloons Around The World To Give Internet
Connectivity To All: Google is now working on an initiative that will provide internet
connectivity to locations that have limited or no access. The Internet giant has
started releasing 30 hi-tech balloons that will provide Wi-Fi internet connectivity to
people as they travel. They have been designed to travel around the world three
times. The balloons start their journey from from New Zealand's South Island under
the project named Project Loon.

http://www.gizbot.com/online/project-loon-google-launches-wi-fi-balloons-around-the-world-news-014539.html
The most serious competition will come from outsiders
Cloud Computing and Search:
Innovation Failure in RoW (i.e. non-US?)
But can the Future of the Internet continue to be
defined, controlled and engineered by the U.S. ?
Systematic Abuse &
Surveillance Default

Flawed policy initiatives

Information Superiority
as the declared objective

Basic societal rights and
principles questioned

Trust destruction
at a very serious level

All U.S. co’s are implicated
& already losing business

@gleonhard
Intelligence, destroyed trust inTrust,computing
NSA / PRSIM has Permission, secure Control
Image via Popsci.com
#datawars
‘Spynternet’

‘Splinternet’
“Data Greed”
So will ‘Big Data’ companies i.e. telecoms, search engines,
cloud providers, internet platforms become like ‘Big Oil’?
Who will be the Exxon-Mobil of Data?
A lot is at stake…
The lack of personal privacy also puts a
boot on the global switch to digital money
1. The Internet runs on Data - and we will see even faster
exponential growth i.e. velocity, variety, volume, virality, value
2. Data is indeed becoming the new Oil, and #datawars are here
3. Oil equals Power (as some of us know all too well)
4. Pollution is the result of Abuse, Surveillance and Trust Failures
5. Technology at first favours the nimble and decentralised - but
then the powerful, and massively so: balances must be struck
6. The resulting (digital) Inequality, the dramatically increasing
abuse of personal data and the rise of ‘Feudal Computing’ will
not be resolved by market dynamics (see the music industry)
* my special thanks to Bruce Schneier for the inspiration
Can we have privacy and be connected?
NCE
ILLA ??
RVE NG
S SU RTISI
L
FUE DVE
HAT LS A
?? W O FUE
ALS

Source Flickr: http://www.flickr.com/photos/tjblackwell/5328104477/
Is this a Faustian Bargain?
Power of Technology

Personal Liberty & Privacy

0

5

0

5

0
B4 Internet

1st digital wave

Now

Tomorrow?
People become ‘instrumented’…?
The Data Made Me Do It - MIT Technology Review

http://m.technologyreview.com/news/514346/the-data-made-me-do-it/

“People have
become
instrumented to
collect and transmit
personal data...”
Andreas Weigend
Should we really try to

‘end anonymity’?
@gleonhard
A CULTURALLY DIFFERENTIATED YET GLOBALLY
STANDARDISED BALANCE OF SECURITY
AND PRIVACY WILL BE ABSOLUTELY CRUCIAL
Yes, we can generate, access, refine,
distribute and use personal data…

…but it will need to be subject to new
social contracts, ethics, rules, laws
We urgently need to
co-create a
comprehensive,
healthy, public,
global, transparent,
verifiable

Won’tbe-evilEcosystem
Time for a global ‘Digital Bill of Rights’…
Do: Observe. Listen. Connect. Respect. Engage. Prosper .
Don’t: Abuse. Re-sell. Surveil. Hyper-market. Gain Superiority.
‘Digital Sovereignty’ will become more important
- but Interdependence is our inevitable future

Image via Tiffany Shlain: Connected the Movie
… and let’s not try and solve social, cultural and
political challenges with technology, once again:)

Thanks to Cory Doctorow for his inspiration
Trust

Ethics
Standards

Technology
@gleonhard
Industrial & Mechanical ☯ Digital & Exponential
Linear Business Model ☯ Lateral Business Model
Silos and long-term competitive advantages ☯
Arenas and transient advantages (Rita McGrath)
The Future of the Internet: Summary

1. We are entering an age of unprecedented opportunities: from linear
to lateral thinking - not industries but arenas!

2. Yet, ‘amazing technology’ must be balanced with ethics & standards:
unintended consequences will pose big challenges

3. Privacy and trust failure is the biggest hurdle to progress in every
segment of ICT: M2M, IoT / IoE, Big Data, Cloud Computing, AI…

4. Interdependence is inevitable, yet sovereignty remains important

5. The Internet needs to governed by an international body representing
all interests, sectors and agenda

6. The ‘Big Data’ boom should not yield another ‘big oil’ disaster
Leaders must go beyond the obvious

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The Future of the Internet: the key trends (Futurist Speaker Gerd Leonhard)

  • 1. The Future of the Internet: Big Data, Big Brother, Big Tech, Big Telco and Big Gov…?
  • 2.
  • 3. Life is becoming FASTER than fiction…
  • 4. The future is already here! Everything Connected Intelligent Real-time Personalized Cross-Platform
  • 5. Exponential technological progress: more speed invariably means more risk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 1 2 4 8 16 32 64
  • 6. The Internet as we knew it is over. Privacy & Security Failure
  • 7. The power of technology now exceeds the scope of our ETHICS “In its self-contained way, Google Glass joins the 21st-century notion that everyone is a filmmaker with the more conventionally accepted truth that everyone is an audience” Tribecafilm.com Sept 2013
  • 8. Zero privacy + flawed security + abusive marketing will translate into slower pace of technology adoption which means missed and reduced opportunities
  • 10. Artificial Intelligence is becoming the new normal
  • 11. "We will be surrounded by computational power. So for average people, for average users and consumers, you will be living in a world where you are essentially living in a computer, where you are surrounded by intelligence” Brian David Johnson (Intel Futurist reuters.com Oct 27 2013)
  • 13. Mobile devices are already our external brains
  • 14. The Future of ‘Search’ http://www.businessinsider.com.au/mac-funamizus-future-of-internet-search-2013-11 via BusinessInsider.com
  • 15. Interface Revolutions: unprecedented access to information
  • 17. 3D Printing: the Napsterization of Manufacturing?
  • 19. Connectivity is like Oxygen now… *but http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/bulletin/by-2017-your-smartphone-will-be-smarter-than-you/ @gleonhard
  • 21. Huge economic potential - but we must also consider unintended consequences
  • 22. Vast societal & behavioral changes driven by exponential technological advancements
  • 23. “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic” *Peter Drucker
  • 24. Acting based on yesterday’s logic ... full speed off the cliff
  • 25. #telemedia: a much larger fishbowl
  • 26. Example: the Future of Media is User-Control. Period.
  • 27. Telcos, ISPs and Mobile Operators: Transient Advantages will replace Sustainable Competitive Advantages http://hbr.org/2013/06/transient-advantage
  • 28. Our future: From linear to exponential… and lateral
  • 29. Why does it take ‘a Google’ to do stuff like this? Project Loon: Google Launches Balloons Around The World To Give Internet Connectivity To All: Google is now working on an initiative that will provide internet connectivity to locations that have limited or no access. The Internet giant has started releasing 30 hi-tech balloons that will provide Wi-Fi internet connectivity to people as they travel. They have been designed to travel around the world three times. The balloons start their journey from from New Zealand's South Island under the project named Project Loon. http://www.gizbot.com/online/project-loon-google-launches-wi-fi-balloons-around-the-world-news-014539.html
  • 30. The most serious competition will come from outsiders
  • 31. Cloud Computing and Search: Innovation Failure in RoW (i.e. non-US?)
  • 32. But can the Future of the Internet continue to be defined, controlled and engineered by the U.S. ? Systematic Abuse & Surveillance Default Flawed policy initiatives Information Superiority as the declared objective Basic societal rights and principles questioned Trust destruction at a very serious level All U.S. co’s are implicated & already losing business @gleonhard
  • 33. Intelligence, destroyed trust inTrust,computing NSA / PRSIM has Permission, secure Control
  • 38. So will ‘Big Data’ companies i.e. telecoms, search engines, cloud providers, internet platforms become like ‘Big Oil’?
  • 39. Who will be the Exxon-Mobil of Data?
  • 40. A lot is at stake…
  • 41. The lack of personal privacy also puts a boot on the global switch to digital money
  • 42. 1. The Internet runs on Data - and we will see even faster exponential growth i.e. velocity, variety, volume, virality, value 2. Data is indeed becoming the new Oil, and #datawars are here 3. Oil equals Power (as some of us know all too well) 4. Pollution is the result of Abuse, Surveillance and Trust Failures 5. Technology at first favours the nimble and decentralised - but then the powerful, and massively so: balances must be struck 6. The resulting (digital) Inequality, the dramatically increasing abuse of personal data and the rise of ‘Feudal Computing’ will not be resolved by market dynamics (see the music industry) * my special thanks to Bruce Schneier for the inspiration
  • 43. Can we have privacy and be connected?
  • 44. NCE ILLA ?? RVE NG S SU RTISI L FUE DVE HAT LS A ?? W O FUE ALS Source Flickr: http://www.flickr.com/photos/tjblackwell/5328104477/
  • 45. Is this a Faustian Bargain? Power of Technology Personal Liberty & Privacy 0 5 0 5 0 B4 Internet 1st digital wave Now Tomorrow?
  • 46. People become ‘instrumented’…? The Data Made Me Do It - MIT Technology Review
 http://m.technologyreview.com/news/514346/the-data-made-me-do-it/ “People have become instrumented to collect and transmit personal data...” Andreas Weigend
  • 47. Should we really try to ‘end anonymity’? @gleonhard
  • 48. A CULTURALLY DIFFERENTIATED YET GLOBALLY STANDARDISED BALANCE OF SECURITY AND PRIVACY WILL BE ABSOLUTELY CRUCIAL
  • 49. Yes, we can generate, access, refine, distribute and use personal data… …but it will need to be subject to new social contracts, ethics, rules, laws
  • 50. We urgently need to co-create a comprehensive, healthy, public, global, transparent, verifiable Won’tbe-evilEcosystem
  • 51. Time for a global ‘Digital Bill of Rights’…
  • 52. Do: Observe. Listen. Connect. Respect. Engage. Prosper . Don’t: Abuse. Re-sell. Surveil. Hyper-market. Gain Superiority.
  • 53. ‘Digital Sovereignty’ will become more important - but Interdependence is our inevitable future Image via Tiffany Shlain: Connected the Movie
  • 54. … and let’s not try and solve social, cultural and political challenges with technology, once again:) Thanks to Cory Doctorow for his inspiration
  • 56. Industrial & Mechanical ☯ Digital & Exponential Linear Business Model ☯ Lateral Business Model Silos and long-term competitive advantages ☯ Arenas and transient advantages (Rita McGrath)
  • 57. The Future of the Internet: Summary 1. We are entering an age of unprecedented opportunities: from linear to lateral thinking - not industries but arenas! 2. Yet, ‘amazing technology’ must be balanced with ethics & standards: unintended consequences will pose big challenges 3. Privacy and trust failure is the biggest hurdle to progress in every segment of ICT: M2M, IoT / IoE, Big Data, Cloud Computing, AI… 4. Interdependence is inevitable, yet sovereignty remains important 5. The Internet needs to governed by an international body representing all interests, sectors and agenda 6. The ‘Big Data’ boom should not yield another ‘big oil’ disaster
  • 58. Leaders must go beyond the obvious