Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
The Futureof the InternetARMA CalgaryFebruary 10, 20102
Yogi SchulzBiographyPartner in Corvelle ConsultingInformation technology related management consultingMicrosoft Canada columnist & CBC Radio hostPPDM Association board memberIndustry presenter:Project World - 5 yearsCIPS Informatics - 7 yearsPMI - Information Systems SIG - 2 yearsConvergence - 4 yearsPPDM Association - several years3
The Future of the Internetat various points in the pastSecure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear warSystem to conduct businessCheap, fast, shared communication systemfor everyoneA whole new media channelSystem to improve social lifeBasis for warfareEstonia urged NATO to develop a unified strategyagainst "cyber-terrorists" today after suspectedRussian hackers launched a third wave of attackson leading government, banking andmedia websites this week.19 May 20074
Cyber War:Sabotaging the SystemBrazilian disruption of electrical power networks initiated by hackersChina Expands Cyberspying in U.S.The New E-spionage Threat5
Close toHome“Great news, Mrs. Janoski!We put a video of your tummy-tuck surgeryon YouTube,And it’s currently ranked second!”6
Evolution from Web 1.0to Web 2.0End-user inputWeb 1.0Mostly text contentInternetWeb 2.0End-user generated contentMulti-media content7
Increasing Online Sales8
Over 72 million active sites9World Wide Web mapNumber of Web Siteson the Web
The Future of the Internet OutlineSocial computing will expand to businessInternet access will be ubiquitousThe Web will become fasterThe Web will become smarterSecurity will improveIT products will morph into servicesRecommendationsQuestions & Answers10
Social ComputingSurveycreated a personal profile onFacebook, MySpace, Second Life?played FarmVille?written personal blog entries?written a review at Amazon?posted pictures at Flickr?posted video at YouTube?produced content for the Web?Who has . .11
Daily Weblog PostingsDaily Weblog Postings1.4 million posts per day12
New Hobbieson the InternetHow did anyonesurvive before theInternet?Isn’t it truly amazinghow a day after Matthewtakes off his shirt, wecan all enjoy it?13
The future of Social NetworksCompanies:operate FaceBook groups & YouTube channelsoffer chat to customershost discussion forumsIndividuals:stay in touch with family & friendspromote causesparticipate in political action14
Internet AccessSurveyWho has . .abandoned phones for VOIP?used wireless access at Starbucks? found Internet access in remote corners of the world?mooched Internet access froman open WiFi access point?surfed the Web using a phone?15
InternetEverywhere16
T-Mobile HotSpot @Home+ $ 20.00 per monthIn a Wi-Fi wirelessInternet hot spot,all your calls are free Phone hands offyour calls fromWi-Fi network to cell networkseamlessly and automaticallyIncludes a wireless router for your home17NovatelMiFi
PCs vs. Cell PhonesProjected ShipmentsOver 700 million phones18
Internet-CapableCell Phones19
20Chinese   InformationHighway
Revenge of the PCs?21Netbook
The Future of Internet AccessInternet 2Cable/ADSLRural InternetSatellite servicesMunicipal WiFiDevice convergence22
Faster Web Surveywaited and waited for web pages to load?noticed significant variability when loading the same web page?rented movies because the download time takes hours?abandoned an online purchase because the hour glass stayed on forever?23Who has . .
Internet speed by country24
The Future of Internet SpeedInternet 2Faster web browsersHigher speed Cable/ADSLHigher speed cell phone networkHigher speed in-home network25
Smarter Web Surveynot found what you were searching for?failed to re-find a page you’ve seen before?become tired of typing the same personal information over and over and over?received unexpected/embarrassing pages in the results set?found exactly what you were looking for; only it’s in Chicago?26Who has . .
Mobile agentsRosettaNetebXMLUDDIWS-<alphabet soup>Web Services willconnect organizations }WS-TrustWS-SecurityWeb Services InteroperabilityWS-MetadataExchangeWS-AddressingWS-EventingWS-ServiceGroupWS-BaseFaults27
The Future Semantic Web
SecuritySurveyactually produced a disaster recovery plan after deferring the work for many years?been hesitant about creating a profile?a paper shredder in use at home?their social security number with them?their password written on a sticky note?a firewall, anti-virus and anti-spyware installed at home?Who has . .29
The Future of Security Biometric identification:Technical identification:Less total freedom to be irresponsible:30
Software &Hardware Surveyimplemented virtualization technologycontracted for on-demandserver computing?used open source software?installed OpenOffice?developed softwarethrough crowdsourcing?31Who has . .
IT products will morph into servicesSoftware as a ServiceOpen source softwarePay for software usage by the monthWeb-accessible office softwareIT infrastructure management32QbyteonlineJavaEnterpriseSystem
IT products will morph into servicesHardware as a ServiceCommodity computingService oriented architectureClusterGrid33
What will the future of the Internetmean to business?Enhance distributed collaborationEnhance supply chain performanceImprove work/life balanceImprove integration of field andhead office business processesAddress the potential ofknowledge management34
ConclusionsThe future of the Internet will surprise usWe tend to under-estimate the pace of progress in technologyWe tend to over-estimate the pace at which people are prepared to adopt technology35
KeepingUpDon’t languish behind,The Internet offersmany possibilities!36
RecommendationsMonitor Internet technology developmentsExperiment using emerging Web services Match technology to business problems and opportunitiesPilot Web services in modest waysDon’t over-commit37
Questions & AnswersElroy willexplain itto you38
Future of the Internet Corvelle Consulting700, 205 - 5 Ave. S. W.Calgary,  Alberta  T2P 2V7Phone: (403) 249-5255E-mail: YogiSchulz@corvelle.comWeb: www.corvelle.comYogi SchulzPartner of Corvelle ConsultingInformation technology related management consultingMicrosoft Canada columnist& CBC Radio hostIndustry presenterPPDM Association board member39
Man – ComputerIntegration40
searched for Open Source software components?contemplated installing the Compiere Open Source ERP software application?read about the Open Source Website Content Management System?participated in an Open Source community?considered an open source application?SoftwareDevelopmentSurveyWho has . .41
Software development will rely heavily on module re-useMicrosoft modulesJava modulesApplications built on toolsReducing what developers have to code42
Supplemental Slides43
44
45
Top 10 Sites46
47
48
Mobile Web-surfingGrowth49
Websitesvisited afterTwitter50
51Top-10 Malware Sites
Internet speed by country52
Number of WeblogsNumber of WeblogsOver 70 million blogs53
USA HolidayOnline Spending54
Web SearchActivity Share55
Future ofelectronic books56AmazonKindleMSI Dual screen slateSonyereaderBarnes & NobleNookApple iPAD
Bibliography - 1A Brief History of the World Wide Web www.walthowe.com/navnet/history.htmlA Little History of the World Wide Webwww.w3.org/History.htmlBiometric Identificationet.wcu.edu/aidc/BioWebPages/Biometrics_Eye.htmlClassmate PC by Intelwww.classmatepc.com/index.htmlCreative LicensingErik Heinrich, EDGE, September 2004, p. 14Digital dilemmasThe Economist, Jan 23rd, 2003www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=1534303 Eight business technology trends to watchhttp://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/High_Tech/Strategy_Analysis/Eight_business_technology_trends_to_watch_2080?gp=1Electrolux Screenfridgewww.electrolux.com/screenfridge57
Bibliography - 2Future of the Internet and Webwww.cs.purdue.edu/homes/bxd/inter/futureineweb.htmlHardware, On Demand Help Drive IBM's Profit Erin Joyce, January 15, 2004 www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3299631 Histories of the Internetwww.isoc.org/internet/historyen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_historywww.let.leidenuniv.nl/history/ivh/frame_theorie.htmlHobbes' Internet Timeline v7.0www.zakon.org/robert/internet/timelineHow the internet has woven itself into American lifewww.pewinternet.org/PPF/r/148/report_display.aspHow big brother and big media can put the Internet genie back in the bottleJohn Walker, Revision 4 -- November 4th, 2003www.fourmilab.ch/documents/digital-imprimatur 58
Bibliography - 3IBM - Capacity on demand www-1.ibm.com/servers/eserver/iseries/ondemand/cod/IBM Makes Social Computing Push For Business Internet News, January 23, 2007www.internetnews.com/ent-news/article.php/3655391www-142.ibm.com/software/sw-lotus/products/product3.nsf/wdocs/connectionsInside Reality - Improve collaborative decision makingwww.slb.com/content/services/software/virtualInternet historieswww.isoc.org/internet/historyInternet Societywww.isoc.orgInternet2www.internet2.eduIPhone-Free Cellphone News By David Pogue, New York Times. July 5, 2007www.nytimes.com/2007/07/05/technology/circuits/05pogue.html?ex=1186459200&en=45706190e9cee2fb&ei=507059
Bibliography - 4Mobile Agents and the Future of the Internet www.cs.dartmouth.edu/~dfk/papers/kotz:future2/NASA Research and Education Network (NREN) www.nren.nasa.gov/about/index.htmlOn-Demand Computingwww.computerworld.com/hardwaretopics/hardware/report/0,11188,06282004,00.htmlOne Laptop per Child (OLPC)laptop.orgPattie Maes and PranavMistry demo SixthSensehttp://www.ted.com/talks/pattie_maes_demos_the_sixth_sense.htmlRich Internet applicationen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Internet_applicationwww.adobe.com/devnet/ria/theopensourcery.com/xmlria.htmSoftware as a Service: Choosing an Effective Modelwww.accelacomm.com/jlp/BellSaas-txtEm2/22/10002557/60
Bibliography - 5Taming the World Wide WebA rising tide of companies are tapping Semantic Web technologies to unearth hard-to-find connections between disparate pieces of online databy Rachael King www.businessweek.com/technology/content/apr2007/tc20070409_248062.htm?chan=search61
Bibliography - 6Utility Computingwww.utilitycomputing.comUnveiling the genius of multi-touch interface designJeff Hanwww.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/65Voice over IP 101 - Juniper Networkswhitepapers.informationweek.com/detail/RES/1099072997_513.html?src=mu_p_j2eW3C - One Web: Going MobileSteve Bratt, W3C - One Web: Going Mobilewww.w3.org/2006/Talks/1106-sb-OneWeb-Mobile2/#(1)Web 2.0 Directory : eConsultantWorld Wide Web Consortium62
The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 1Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear warFast communication system for US Department of Defense and its military contractorsGlobal system of hypertext linkages to cross-reference academic documents across computersFast, shared communication system for large corporationsA way to apply computing without sending vast sums of money to Microsoft63
The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 2Replacement for Fedexing documentsA whole new media channel for:Distributing information Delivering entertainment & educationCollaborating for business or pleasure System to:Perform rapid research (with limitations)Conduct business with consumers – B2CImprove social lifeGet rich quick scheme based on dubious products & services64
The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 3A software distribution/update mechanismCheap, fast, shared communication system for everyoneSystem to conduct business:Among businesses – B2BWith governmentA turbo-charged way to:Defraud the innocent & the naiveAggravate & disrupt the lives of manyOperate a global casino without spending billions65
The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 4Basis for warfare:Disrupt enemy communicationDisable enemy weaponsFreeze enemy financial assetsAvoid casualties on the evening newsReplacement for:The telephone systemVideo conferencingA shared infrastructure to enable:Media convergenceWireless communication systemOn-demand television66
A Brief History of the Internet67
A Brief Historyof the Internet - 11957  U. S. government forms Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) as a defense initiative1968 ARPANET, the precursor of the Internet, is launched to connect Department of Defense (DoD) with military contractors1970s ARPA and Stanford develop packet switching - TCP/IP1971 Ray Tomlinson of ARPANET sent the world's first e-mail1972 Scientist start to use ARPANET for E-mail1973 The term Internet is first used1981 ARPANET  grows to 213 hosts1982 first Newsgroups established1983 TCP/IP becomes the standard protocol1984 The term cyberspace is coined by author William Gibson1984 ARPANET  grows to 1,000 hosts68
A Brief Historyof the Internet - 21985 NSFNet begins; takes over Internet1985, 15 March – first registered domain name was symbolics.com1989 Tim Berners-Lee wrote the first web client and server1990 Tim Berners-Lee’s specifications of URIs, HTTP and HTML refined as Web technology spread1990 The phrase World Wide Web is coined by Tim Berners-Lee.  He is considered the inventor of the Web1990 NSF lifts ban on commercial hosts on Internet1990 Archie, first search engine, developed at McGill University1991 PSI Net begins as first commercial ISP1991 Gopher system - improvement on ftp retrieval developed1992 Network Solutions wins bid to register domain extensions1992 Internet reaches 1,000,000 hosts1993 MOSAIC browser developed at University of Illinois under federal grant69
A Brief Historyof the Internet - 31993 Internet reaches 2,000,000 hosts1993 Netscape Communications is founded1994 The first bank opens online1994 Pizza Hut offers online pizza order and delivery1994 first International World Wide Web Conferences held 1994 Yahoo starts as "Jerry's Guide to the World Wide Web" 1994, 7 July – Fraunhofer Society released the first MP3 software1995 Internet access providers Compuserve, Aol and Prodigy began1995 PC-to-PC Voice over IP began by hobbyists in Israel 1995, 3 September – eBay launched1995, 15 December – AltaVista launched as an Internet search engine 1995 Amazon.com launched1996 Microsoft feels threatened by Internet growth in importance; re-prioritizes software development70
A Brief Historyof the Internet - 41996 Yahoo Internet search engine is launched1997 The one millionth domain name is registered1997 Net2Phone Direct (Phone-to-Phone Over IP) launched in the USA1998 More than 300 million web pages exist; growing by 1.5 million pages per day1998 VOIP first PC-to-Phone and later Phone-to-Phone connections1998, 7 September – Google Inc.opens for business1999 B2C E-commerce, portals and electronic auctions become popular1999 Consumer high-speed access widely adopted1999 MySpace.com is launched1999 wireless technology called 802.11b or Wi-Fi is standardized2000 B2B E-commerce gains momentum2000 AOL Time Warner merger announced71
A Brief Historyof the Internet - 52001 B2B Marketplaces experiment with mixed success2001 Internet startup frenzy implodes2001 eBay reaches $10 billion sales; exceeds 35 million users2001 W3C Publishes Web Services Description Language (WSDL)2001 Napster litigation forces it to suspend service2001 The first live distributed musical2001 SETI@Home launches 2001 European Council finalizes an international cyber-crime treaty 2001 Code Red worm and Sircam virus infiltrate thousands of web servers and email accounts2002 Having your own Blog becomes hip 2002 A distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack struck the 13 DNS root servers 72
A Brief Historyof the Internet - 62003 Spam, unsolicited email, becomes a server-clogging menace. It accounts for about half of all emails2003 The first official Swiss online election takes place in Anières2003 SQL Slammer worm causes one of the largest and fastest spreading DDoS attacks 2003 Flash mobs, organized over the Net, start in New York and quickly form in cities worldwide 2003 first Weblog site launched2003 Second Life launched2003 May LinkedIn launched2003 Taxes make headlines as larger US Internet retailers begin collecting taxes on all purchases2003 The Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) sues 261 individuals for distributing copyright music files2003 Internet users illegally download about 2.6 billion music files each month73
A Brief Historyof the Internet - 72003 Apple Computer introduces Apple iTunes Music Store2003 Last Abilene Internet segment upgraded to 10Gbps 2004 WS-Security2004 February - Facebook was founded by Mark Zuckerberg2004 Google IPO2004 more instances of DNS root servers outside the USA2004 VeriSign (VNDS) begins updating authoritative name servers in near real-time2004 CERNET2 – first backbone IPv6 network in China2004 Internet Worm, called MyDoom or Novarg, spreads through Internet servers2004 Online spending reaches a record high - $117 billion, a 26% increase over 20032004, 9 November – Firefox Internet browser released74
A Brief Historyof the Internet - 82005 One Laptop Per Child project begins2005 YouTube.com is launched2005 News Corporation's Fox Interactive Media buys MySpace2006 Estimated 92 – 100 million Web sites online2006 July Twitter launched publicly2006, 14 November Microsoft launches Zune2006 Google acquires YouTube for $1.65 billion in a stock-for-stock transaction75
A Brief Historyof the Internet - 92007 February Apple surpasses one billion iTunes downloads2007 March 1.1 billion people use the Internet according to Internet World StatsApril 2007  Search engine giant Google surpasses Microsoft as "the most valuable global brand," and also is the most visited Web site2007 – Amazon.com sales exceed $ 3 Billion2008 - Hulu launches; an online video site for copyrighted work by major networks, December 2009 Ciplex Builds World's First Multi-Touch Website Using Silverlight Internet Archive:http://www.archive.org76
Social Computingin BusinessExample productIBM's new social computing platform, Lotus Connections, includes five basic components:Profiles - Find the people you needCommunities - Work with people whoshare common interests and expertiseBlogs - Present your own ideas andlearn from othersDogear - Save and share bookmarksActivities - Organize your work andtap your professional network77
Mobile Subscriptionsby Region78

Future of the Internet

  • 1.
  • 2.
    The Futureof theInternetARMA CalgaryFebruary 10, 20102
  • 3.
    Yogi SchulzBiographyPartner inCorvelle ConsultingInformation technology related management consultingMicrosoft Canada columnist & CBC Radio hostPPDM Association board memberIndustry presenter:Project World - 5 yearsCIPS Informatics - 7 yearsPMI - Information Systems SIG - 2 yearsConvergence - 4 yearsPPDM Association - several years3
  • 4.
    The Future ofthe Internetat various points in the pastSecure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear warSystem to conduct businessCheap, fast, shared communication systemfor everyoneA whole new media channelSystem to improve social lifeBasis for warfareEstonia urged NATO to develop a unified strategyagainst "cyber-terrorists" today after suspectedRussian hackers launched a third wave of attackson leading government, banking andmedia websites this week.19 May 20074
  • 5.
    Cyber War:Sabotaging theSystemBrazilian disruption of electrical power networks initiated by hackersChina Expands Cyberspying in U.S.The New E-spionage Threat5
  • 6.
    Close toHome“Great news,Mrs. Janoski!We put a video of your tummy-tuck surgeryon YouTube,And it’s currently ranked second!”6
  • 7.
    Evolution from Web1.0to Web 2.0End-user inputWeb 1.0Mostly text contentInternetWeb 2.0End-user generated contentMulti-media content7
  • 8.
  • 9.
    Over 72 millionactive sites9World Wide Web mapNumber of Web Siteson the Web
  • 10.
    The Future ofthe Internet OutlineSocial computing will expand to businessInternet access will be ubiquitousThe Web will become fasterThe Web will become smarterSecurity will improveIT products will morph into servicesRecommendationsQuestions & Answers10
  • 11.
    Social ComputingSurveycreated apersonal profile onFacebook, MySpace, Second Life?played FarmVille?written personal blog entries?written a review at Amazon?posted pictures at Flickr?posted video at YouTube?produced content for the Web?Who has . .11
  • 12.
    Daily Weblog PostingsDailyWeblog Postings1.4 million posts per day12
  • 13.
    New Hobbieson theInternetHow did anyonesurvive before theInternet?Isn’t it truly amazinghow a day after Matthewtakes off his shirt, wecan all enjoy it?13
  • 14.
    The future ofSocial NetworksCompanies:operate FaceBook groups & YouTube channelsoffer chat to customershost discussion forumsIndividuals:stay in touch with family & friendspromote causesparticipate in political action14
  • 15.
    Internet AccessSurveyWho has. .abandoned phones for VOIP?used wireless access at Starbucks? found Internet access in remote corners of the world?mooched Internet access froman open WiFi access point?surfed the Web using a phone?15
  • 16.
  • 17.
    T-Mobile HotSpot @Home+$ 20.00 per monthIn a Wi-Fi wirelessInternet hot spot,all your calls are free Phone hands offyour calls fromWi-Fi network to cell networkseamlessly and automaticallyIncludes a wireless router for your home17NovatelMiFi
  • 18.
    PCs vs. CellPhonesProjected ShipmentsOver 700 million phones18
  • 19.
  • 20.
    20Chinese InformationHighway
  • 21.
    Revenge of thePCs?21Netbook
  • 22.
    The Future ofInternet AccessInternet 2Cable/ADSLRural InternetSatellite servicesMunicipal WiFiDevice convergence22
  • 23.
    Faster Web Surveywaitedand waited for web pages to load?noticed significant variability when loading the same web page?rented movies because the download time takes hours?abandoned an online purchase because the hour glass stayed on forever?23Who has . .
  • 24.
  • 25.
    The Future ofInternet SpeedInternet 2Faster web browsersHigher speed Cable/ADSLHigher speed cell phone networkHigher speed in-home network25
  • 26.
    Smarter Web Surveynotfound what you were searching for?failed to re-find a page you’ve seen before?become tired of typing the same personal information over and over and over?received unexpected/embarrassing pages in the results set?found exactly what you were looking for; only it’s in Chicago?26Who has . .
  • 27.
    Mobile agentsRosettaNetebXMLUDDIWS-<alphabet soup>WebServices willconnect organizations }WS-TrustWS-SecurityWeb Services InteroperabilityWS-MetadataExchangeWS-AddressingWS-EventingWS-ServiceGroupWS-BaseFaults27
  • 28.
  • 29.
    SecuritySurveyactually produced adisaster recovery plan after deferring the work for many years?been hesitant about creating a profile?a paper shredder in use at home?their social security number with them?their password written on a sticky note?a firewall, anti-virus and anti-spyware installed at home?Who has . .29
  • 30.
    The Future ofSecurity Biometric identification:Technical identification:Less total freedom to be irresponsible:30
  • 31.
    Software &Hardware Surveyimplementedvirtualization technologycontracted for on-demandserver computing?used open source software?installed OpenOffice?developed softwarethrough crowdsourcing?31Who has . .
  • 32.
    IT products willmorph into servicesSoftware as a ServiceOpen source softwarePay for software usage by the monthWeb-accessible office softwareIT infrastructure management32QbyteonlineJavaEnterpriseSystem
  • 33.
    IT products willmorph into servicesHardware as a ServiceCommodity computingService oriented architectureClusterGrid33
  • 34.
    What will thefuture of the Internetmean to business?Enhance distributed collaborationEnhance supply chain performanceImprove work/life balanceImprove integration of field andhead office business processesAddress the potential ofknowledge management34
  • 35.
    ConclusionsThe future ofthe Internet will surprise usWe tend to under-estimate the pace of progress in technologyWe tend to over-estimate the pace at which people are prepared to adopt technology35
  • 36.
    KeepingUpDon’t languish behind,TheInternet offersmany possibilities!36
  • 37.
    RecommendationsMonitor Internet technologydevelopmentsExperiment using emerging Web services Match technology to business problems and opportunitiesPilot Web services in modest waysDon’t over-commit37
  • 38.
    Questions & AnswersElroywillexplain itto you38
  • 39.
    Future of theInternet Corvelle Consulting700, 205 - 5 Ave. S. W.Calgary, Alberta T2P 2V7Phone: (403) 249-5255E-mail: YogiSchulz@corvelle.comWeb: www.corvelle.comYogi SchulzPartner of Corvelle ConsultingInformation technology related management consultingMicrosoft Canada columnist& CBC Radio hostIndustry presenterPPDM Association board member39
  • 40.
  • 41.
    searched for OpenSource software components?contemplated installing the Compiere Open Source ERP software application?read about the Open Source Website Content Management System?participated in an Open Source community?considered an open source application?SoftwareDevelopmentSurveyWho has . .41
  • 42.
    Software development willrely heavily on module re-useMicrosoft modulesJava modulesApplications built on toolsReducing what developers have to code42
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53.
    Number of WeblogsNumberof WeblogsOver 70 million blogs53
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56.
    Future ofelectronic books56AmazonKindleMSIDual screen slateSonyereaderBarnes & NobleNookApple iPAD
  • 57.
    Bibliography - 1ABrief History of the World Wide Web www.walthowe.com/navnet/history.htmlA Little History of the World Wide Webwww.w3.org/History.htmlBiometric Identificationet.wcu.edu/aidc/BioWebPages/Biometrics_Eye.htmlClassmate PC by Intelwww.classmatepc.com/index.htmlCreative LicensingErik Heinrich, EDGE, September 2004, p. 14Digital dilemmasThe Economist, Jan 23rd, 2003www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=1534303 Eight business technology trends to watchhttp://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/High_Tech/Strategy_Analysis/Eight_business_technology_trends_to_watch_2080?gp=1Electrolux Screenfridgewww.electrolux.com/screenfridge57
  • 58.
    Bibliography - 2Futureof the Internet and Webwww.cs.purdue.edu/homes/bxd/inter/futureineweb.htmlHardware, On Demand Help Drive IBM's Profit Erin Joyce, January 15, 2004 www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3299631 Histories of the Internetwww.isoc.org/internet/historyen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_historywww.let.leidenuniv.nl/history/ivh/frame_theorie.htmlHobbes' Internet Timeline v7.0www.zakon.org/robert/internet/timelineHow the internet has woven itself into American lifewww.pewinternet.org/PPF/r/148/report_display.aspHow big brother and big media can put the Internet genie back in the bottleJohn Walker, Revision 4 -- November 4th, 2003www.fourmilab.ch/documents/digital-imprimatur 58
  • 59.
    Bibliography - 3IBM- Capacity on demand www-1.ibm.com/servers/eserver/iseries/ondemand/cod/IBM Makes Social Computing Push For Business Internet News, January 23, 2007www.internetnews.com/ent-news/article.php/3655391www-142.ibm.com/software/sw-lotus/products/product3.nsf/wdocs/connectionsInside Reality - Improve collaborative decision makingwww.slb.com/content/services/software/virtualInternet historieswww.isoc.org/internet/historyInternet Societywww.isoc.orgInternet2www.internet2.eduIPhone-Free Cellphone News By David Pogue, New York Times. July 5, 2007www.nytimes.com/2007/07/05/technology/circuits/05pogue.html?ex=1186459200&en=45706190e9cee2fb&ei=507059
  • 60.
    Bibliography - 4MobileAgents and the Future of the Internet www.cs.dartmouth.edu/~dfk/papers/kotz:future2/NASA Research and Education Network (NREN) www.nren.nasa.gov/about/index.htmlOn-Demand Computingwww.computerworld.com/hardwaretopics/hardware/report/0,11188,06282004,00.htmlOne Laptop per Child (OLPC)laptop.orgPattie Maes and PranavMistry demo SixthSensehttp://www.ted.com/talks/pattie_maes_demos_the_sixth_sense.htmlRich Internet applicationen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Internet_applicationwww.adobe.com/devnet/ria/theopensourcery.com/xmlria.htmSoftware as a Service: Choosing an Effective Modelwww.accelacomm.com/jlp/BellSaas-txtEm2/22/10002557/60
  • 61.
    Bibliography - 5Tamingthe World Wide WebA rising tide of companies are tapping Semantic Web technologies to unearth hard-to-find connections between disparate pieces of online databy Rachael King www.businessweek.com/technology/content/apr2007/tc20070409_248062.htm?chan=search61
  • 62.
    Bibliography - 6UtilityComputingwww.utilitycomputing.comUnveiling the genius of multi-touch interface designJeff Hanwww.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/65Voice over IP 101 - Juniper Networkswhitepapers.informationweek.com/detail/RES/1099072997_513.html?src=mu_p_j2eW3C - One Web: Going MobileSteve Bratt, W3C - One Web: Going Mobilewww.w3.org/2006/Talks/1106-sb-OneWeb-Mobile2/#(1)Web 2.0 Directory : eConsultantWorld Wide Web Consortium62
  • 63.
    The Future ofthe Internetat various points in the past - 1Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear warFast communication system for US Department of Defense and its military contractorsGlobal system of hypertext linkages to cross-reference academic documents across computersFast, shared communication system for large corporationsA way to apply computing without sending vast sums of money to Microsoft63
  • 64.
    The Future ofthe Internetat various points in the past - 2Replacement for Fedexing documentsA whole new media channel for:Distributing information Delivering entertainment & educationCollaborating for business or pleasure System to:Perform rapid research (with limitations)Conduct business with consumers – B2CImprove social lifeGet rich quick scheme based on dubious products & services64
  • 65.
    The Future ofthe Internetat various points in the past - 3A software distribution/update mechanismCheap, fast, shared communication system for everyoneSystem to conduct business:Among businesses – B2BWith governmentA turbo-charged way to:Defraud the innocent & the naiveAggravate & disrupt the lives of manyOperate a global casino without spending billions65
  • 66.
    The Future ofthe Internetat various points in the past - 4Basis for warfare:Disrupt enemy communicationDisable enemy weaponsFreeze enemy financial assetsAvoid casualties on the evening newsReplacement for:The telephone systemVideo conferencingA shared infrastructure to enable:Media convergenceWireless communication systemOn-demand television66
  • 67.
    A Brief Historyof the Internet67
  • 68.
    A Brief Historyofthe Internet - 11957 U. S. government forms Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) as a defense initiative1968 ARPANET, the precursor of the Internet, is launched to connect Department of Defense (DoD) with military contractors1970s ARPA and Stanford develop packet switching - TCP/IP1971 Ray Tomlinson of ARPANET sent the world's first e-mail1972 Scientist start to use ARPANET for E-mail1973 The term Internet is first used1981 ARPANET grows to 213 hosts1982 first Newsgroups established1983 TCP/IP becomes the standard protocol1984 The term cyberspace is coined by author William Gibson1984 ARPANET grows to 1,000 hosts68
  • 69.
    A Brief Historyofthe Internet - 21985 NSFNet begins; takes over Internet1985, 15 March – first registered domain name was symbolics.com1989 Tim Berners-Lee wrote the first web client and server1990 Tim Berners-Lee’s specifications of URIs, HTTP and HTML refined as Web technology spread1990 The phrase World Wide Web is coined by Tim Berners-Lee. He is considered the inventor of the Web1990 NSF lifts ban on commercial hosts on Internet1990 Archie, first search engine, developed at McGill University1991 PSI Net begins as first commercial ISP1991 Gopher system - improvement on ftp retrieval developed1992 Network Solutions wins bid to register domain extensions1992 Internet reaches 1,000,000 hosts1993 MOSAIC browser developed at University of Illinois under federal grant69
  • 70.
    A Brief Historyofthe Internet - 31993 Internet reaches 2,000,000 hosts1993 Netscape Communications is founded1994 The first bank opens online1994 Pizza Hut offers online pizza order and delivery1994 first International World Wide Web Conferences held 1994 Yahoo starts as "Jerry's Guide to the World Wide Web" 1994, 7 July – Fraunhofer Society released the first MP3 software1995 Internet access providers Compuserve, Aol and Prodigy began1995 PC-to-PC Voice over IP began by hobbyists in Israel 1995, 3 September – eBay launched1995, 15 December – AltaVista launched as an Internet search engine 1995 Amazon.com launched1996 Microsoft feels threatened by Internet growth in importance; re-prioritizes software development70
  • 71.
    A Brief Historyofthe Internet - 41996 Yahoo Internet search engine is launched1997 The one millionth domain name is registered1997 Net2Phone Direct (Phone-to-Phone Over IP) launched in the USA1998 More than 300 million web pages exist; growing by 1.5 million pages per day1998 VOIP first PC-to-Phone and later Phone-to-Phone connections1998, 7 September – Google Inc.opens for business1999 B2C E-commerce, portals and electronic auctions become popular1999 Consumer high-speed access widely adopted1999 MySpace.com is launched1999 wireless technology called 802.11b or Wi-Fi is standardized2000 B2B E-commerce gains momentum2000 AOL Time Warner merger announced71
  • 72.
    A Brief Historyofthe Internet - 52001 B2B Marketplaces experiment with mixed success2001 Internet startup frenzy implodes2001 eBay reaches $10 billion sales; exceeds 35 million users2001 W3C Publishes Web Services Description Language (WSDL)2001 Napster litigation forces it to suspend service2001 The first live distributed musical2001 SETI@Home launches 2001 European Council finalizes an international cyber-crime treaty 2001 Code Red worm and Sircam virus infiltrate thousands of web servers and email accounts2002 Having your own Blog becomes hip 2002 A distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack struck the 13 DNS root servers 72
  • 73.
    A Brief Historyofthe Internet - 62003 Spam, unsolicited email, becomes a server-clogging menace. It accounts for about half of all emails2003 The first official Swiss online election takes place in Anières2003 SQL Slammer worm causes one of the largest and fastest spreading DDoS attacks 2003 Flash mobs, organized over the Net, start in New York and quickly form in cities worldwide 2003 first Weblog site launched2003 Second Life launched2003 May LinkedIn launched2003 Taxes make headlines as larger US Internet retailers begin collecting taxes on all purchases2003 The Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) sues 261 individuals for distributing copyright music files2003 Internet users illegally download about 2.6 billion music files each month73
  • 74.
    A Brief Historyofthe Internet - 72003 Apple Computer introduces Apple iTunes Music Store2003 Last Abilene Internet segment upgraded to 10Gbps 2004 WS-Security2004 February - Facebook was founded by Mark Zuckerberg2004 Google IPO2004 more instances of DNS root servers outside the USA2004 VeriSign (VNDS) begins updating authoritative name servers in near real-time2004 CERNET2 – first backbone IPv6 network in China2004 Internet Worm, called MyDoom or Novarg, spreads through Internet servers2004 Online spending reaches a record high - $117 billion, a 26% increase over 20032004, 9 November – Firefox Internet browser released74
  • 75.
    A Brief Historyofthe Internet - 82005 One Laptop Per Child project begins2005 YouTube.com is launched2005 News Corporation's Fox Interactive Media buys MySpace2006 Estimated 92 – 100 million Web sites online2006 July Twitter launched publicly2006, 14 November Microsoft launches Zune2006 Google acquires YouTube for $1.65 billion in a stock-for-stock transaction75
  • 76.
    A Brief Historyofthe Internet - 92007 February Apple surpasses one billion iTunes downloads2007 March 1.1 billion people use the Internet according to Internet World StatsApril 2007 Search engine giant Google surpasses Microsoft as "the most valuable global brand," and also is the most visited Web site2007 – Amazon.com sales exceed $ 3 Billion2008 - Hulu launches; an online video site for copyrighted work by major networks, December 2009 Ciplex Builds World's First Multi-Touch Website Using Silverlight Internet Archive:http://www.archive.org76
  • 77.
    Social Computingin BusinessExampleproductIBM's new social computing platform, Lotus Connections, includes five basic components:Profiles - Find the people you needCommunities - Work with people whoshare common interests and expertiseBlogs - Present your own ideas andlearn from othersDogear - Save and share bookmarksActivities - Organize your work andtap your professional network77
  • 78.

Editor's Notes

  • #3 Thank you Jessica Arts for the invitation to speak at the ARMA luncheon todayMy name is Yogi SchulzI hope you’ll find this presentation about The Future of the Internet thought-provoking and little outside of the box of the presentations that you typically hear during your lunch events
  • #4 Who am I?I’m a partner of Corvelle ConsultingWe offer information technology related management consultingWe have executed many project management and systems development assignments for our clientsMany of our clients operate in the upstream oil & gas industryI have written many columns for Computing Canada. These columns have tended to focus on project management and systems development themes. The audience is composed largely of IT executives and managersTwo years ago, I began to write columns for the Microsoft web site. These columns have tended to describe useful responses to IT developments for a general audience of business managersI’ve participated in many industry conferences as a presenter:Project World - 5 yearsCIPS Informatics - 7 yearsPMI - Information Systems SIG – 2 yearsConvergence - 4 yearsProfessional Petroleum Data Management Association -PPDM Association - several years
  • #6 Cyber War: Sabotaging the Systemhttp://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/11/06/60minutes/main5555565.shtml60 Minutes: Former Chief of National Intelligence Says U.S. Unprepared for Cyber Attacks, Nov. 8, 2009Several prominent intelligence sources confirmed that there were a series of cyber attacks in Brazil: one north of Rio de Janeiro in January 2005 that affected three cities and tens of thousands of people, and another, much larger event beginning on Sept. 26, 2007.That one in the state of Espirito Santo affected more than three million people in dozens of cities over a two-day period, causing major disruptions. In Vitoria, the world's largest iron ore producer had seven plants knocked offline, costing the company $7 million. It is not clear who did it or what the motive was.But the people who do these sorts of things are no longer teenagers making mischief. They're now likely to be highly trained soldiers with the Chinese army or part of an organized crime group in Russia, Europe or the Americas."They can disrupt critical infrastructure, wipe databases. We know they can rob banks. So, it's a much bigger and more serious threat," explained Jim Lewis, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.China Expands Cyberspying in U.S., Report Sayshttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB125616872684400273.htmlCongressional Advisory Panel in Washington Cites Apparent Campaign by Beijing to Steal Information From American FirmsThe New E-spionage Threathttp://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_16/b4080032218430.htmA BusinessWeek probe of rising attacks on America's most sensitive computer networks uncovers startling security gaps
  • #9 Increasing Online SalesWe’ve now all bought products onlineThere’s every indication this trend will continueIt’s fast and convenient; the selection is vast, certainly more than a mall can offerOnline selling has significantly changed the retail sector of the economyOnline selling has dramatically changed the distribution industry from a focus on truckloads and cases of items to vast distribution centers focused on shipments of individual items to consumersHow many of us now conduct our research and comparison shopping online but then actually buy in a store?Anyone tried the iPod app that scans UPC codes and then produces search results for that UPC code in the browser?http://www.iphoneness.com/iphone-apps/5-best-barcode-iphone-applications/
  • #15 The future of Social NetworksIn the future, the impact of Social Networkswill increase in many aspects of our livesCompanies:operate FaceBook groups & YouTube channelsoffer chat to customershost moderated discussion forumsThe goal is increased customer satisfaction through increased customer interactivityIncreased customer satisfaction leads first to increased sales and then more importantly, to better understanding of future products and services that will resonate with customersIndividuals:stay in touch with family & friendspromote causesparticipate in political actionIndividuals find value in easily staying in touch with friends and familyIt think that’s great way to maintain a sense of connectedness that phones don’t achieve as wellWe’ll see the Web used more for political actionThe last two elections in the US made use of the WebMany commentators saw the election of Barack Obama greatly assisted by his ability to raise money and mobilize local volunteers through the WebConversely, the government of China operates the Great Firewall that restricts its people’s access to various parts of the Internet These restrictions will escalate into confrontation, violence and eventually insurrectionZappos is widely touted as a superb online merchantWhat differentiates Zappos?It’s not their technology; it’s the way they train their customer service agentsThey’re never is a hurryThey typically have their competitors’ website open in another session to help customer find the exact product they want to purchase when Zappos doesn’t have the item in stock
  • #17 EstoniaTahitiFar EastIsrael
  • #21 ChineseInformationHighwaySome countries filter Internet content; this undermines Internet accessFor China this effort has been labelled The Great FirewallThe goal of such filtering is to minimize calls for political freedoms and to forestall challenges to the legitimacy of the clique that holds powerIn the future we will see more such attempts by autocratic regines; ultimately such efforts are bound to fail as the ingenuity of various engineers circumvents attempts to cut off Internet accessDefying censorship, Google threatens to pull out of ChinaMove follows 'sophisticated' cyber-attackhttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/defying-censorship-google-threatens-to-pull-out-of-china/article1429173/Globe and Mail cartoonhttp://v1.theglobeandmail.com/v5/content/cartoon/generated/20100115.html
  • #22 Revenge of the PCs?The manufacturers of PCs have not been oblivious to the faster-growing market for Internet-capable cell phonesThe response has been to make smaller, lighter, cheaper PC’sClassmate PChttp://www.classmatepc.com/One laptop per childhttp://laptop.org/en/NetbooksNetbooks have been the surprise sales hit of 2008 and 2009The lower price and weight appeal to everyone; particularly those who require only e-mail, web browsing and a little word processingThat usage profile applies to the majority of laptop users
  • #25 Internet speed by countryU.S. lags other nations in Internet speed August 25, 2009 http://news.cnet.com/the-iconoclast/?keyword=InternetWonders have been achieved in video compression to reduce download bandwidth requirementsHowever, for effective video download, the average download speed likely needs to exceed 10 megabits per second
  • #41 Man – ComputerIntegrationWe’re going to see more wearable PC’s appearWe’re also going to see changes to how we interact with devicesYou may recall how Tom Cruise interacted with his computer in Minority ReportDevelopments in gestures and two-point cursors will continueLinks for graphics:http://www.iswc.net/iswc09/http://www.designboom.com/weblog/cat/16/view/5586/wearable-computers.htmlhttp://www.codinghorror.com/blog/images/minority-report-ui.jpg
  • #45 http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/consumer/2009-online-holiday-sales-outlook-what-consumers-have-in-store-for-retailers/
  • #46 http://www.marketingcharts.com/interactive/top-10-internet-mobile-sites-google-yahoo-lead-in-2008-7350/nielsen-top-10-websites-us-2008jpg/
  • #47 http://marketingly.com/tips/consumer-insights/
  • #48 http://www.marketingcharts.com/interactive/top-10-social-networking-websites-forums-november-2009-11450/
  • #49 http://www.marketingcharts.com/interactive/top-10-video-multimedia-websites-november-2009-11452/
  • #50 http://www.opera.com/smw/2009/11/index.dmlVolume of data downloaded has grown correspondingly
  • #51 http://weblogs.hitwise.com/us-heather-hopkins/2009/03/where_to_from_twitter.html
  • #52 http://googleonlinesecurity.blogspot.com/2009/06/top-10-malware-sites.html
  • #53 Internet speed by countryAkamai: World's Net connection speeds risingJanuary 14, 2010Looking at the third quarter of 2009, the report found that most countries in the top-10 list for Internet performance saw an average 18 percent increase in speed from the second quarter. South Korea topped the list, with a 29 percent jump in speed to 14.6 megabits per second, while Ireland came in second for most improved, with a 26 percent rise to 5.3Mbps.http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-10434930-94.htmlInternet Connection Speed: The Top 10 CountriesApril 8th, 2009http://www.techpark.net/2009/04/08/internet-connection-speed-the-top-10-countries/
  • #55 RESTON, VA, December 30, 2009 – comScore (NASDAQ : SCOR), a leader in measuring the digital world, today reported retail e-commerce spending for the holiday season from November 1 through Christmas Eve. During this period, approximately $27 Billion was spent online, which represents an increase of 5 percent over the same period a year ago. For the period from Black Friday through Christmas Eve, and after adjusting for the additional shopping day in 2009, sales grew by approximately 3.5 percent.http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2009/12/E-Commerce_Sales_Rise_by_5_Percent_to_Reach_27_Billion_for_the_2009_Holiday_Shopping_Season_through_Christmas_Eve
  • #56 http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2009/12/Top_Growing_Properties_and_Site_Categories_for_November_2009
  • #57 Readers based on E Ink black & white, low-power consuming display technologyAmazon – KindleSony – ereaderBarnes & Noble – NookLCD technology – faster, color, higher-power consuming display technologySiPixMirasolPhilips – LiquavistaFujitsu FLEPia – cholesteric LCDPixelQiC.E.S. 2010: Explosion of E-Book Readershttp://video.nytimes.com/video/2010/01/08/technology/personaltech/1247466451590/c-e-s-2010-explosion-of-e-book-readers.html?ref=technology
  • #79 http://mobileanalystwatch.blogspot.com/2006_05_01_archive.html