The document discusses a webinar on the future of mobility and whether personal car ownership will become obsolete. It introduces the panelists which include the Chief Scientist for Mobility at Shell, an Assistant Professor studying electric vehicles and shared transportation, and a Program Manager at Frost & Sullivan covering urban mobility trends. The webinar will examine how mobility may change by 2030 with alternative fuels, rapid urbanization, new generations, and autonomous vehicles potentially making personal car ownership obsolete.

1. The Future of Mobility:
Is Personal Car
Ownership a Thing of
the Past?
#EnergyChat Webinar

2. #EnergyChat Webinar
How will mobility be delivered in 2030? Will
alternative fuels like electricity or biofuels
finally be real competitors to oil? Will rapid
urbanization and new generational
demographics make personal car ownership
a thing of the past? Or will autonomous cars
or trucks dominate the roadways?
#EnergyChat

3. Join the Conversation…
Follow along and
share your thoughts
on Twitter at
#EnergyChat
Submit your
questions in the
GoToWebinar
control panel
#EnergyChat

4. Special Thanks to our Sponsor
@Shell
#EnergyChat

5. #EnergyChat Webinar: Moderator
Moderator:
Jesse Jenkins, Featured Writer and Digital Strategy Consultant
theEnergyCollective.com
Twitter: @JesseJenkins
Jesse is a researcher, analyst, and writer with
expertise in energy and climate change, electric power
systems, energy policy, and innovation policy. He is
currently a Digital Strategy Consultant and Featured
Columnist at TheEnergyCollective.com. He has
published peer-reviewed papers in the journals
Energy Policy and WIREs: Climate Change. Jesse
has been awarded fellowships from the MIT Energy
Initiative Energy and the National Science Foundation.
Jesse worked previously as the Director of Energy and
Climate Policy at the Breakthrough Institute and as a
Policy and Research Associate at the Renewable
Northwest Project.

6. Webinar Panelists:
Wolfgang Warnecke, Ph.D.
Chief Scientist Mobility, Shell
Dr. Wolfgang Warnecke was appointed as Shell’s Chief Scientist for Mobility in May 2011. His expertise in
all forms of mobility, vehicle technology, fuels and lubricants sees him advising on technology strategy,
championing science, R&D and innovation, enhancing Shell’s technical reputation in the fast-changing
area of mobility and looking ahead to future solutions. Wolfgang studied Mechanical Engineering at the
Technical University of Hannover, specialising in automotive combustion engines, and gained a PhD in
Automotive Engineering from Hamburg Tech. University in 1987. @Shell
Don MacKenzie, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Washington
Don MacKenzie is an assistant professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering at the University of
Washington in Seattle. His research addresses the travel and charging behavior or electric vehicle owners,
the environmental and social equity implications of shared-use transportation services, and the effects of
vehicle automation on energy demand. He holds a PhD in Engineering Systems from MIT, and previously
worked as a researcher on technical and policy issues spanning fuel cells, biofuels, and efficiency
technologies in both the private and non-profit sectors.
Shwetha Surender
Program Manager, Mobility | Frost & Sullivan| Automotive & Transportation
Leading Frost & Sullivan’s mobility research with a particular expertise in:
– Urban Mobility & Transport Policy (including car sharing, electric vehicles, smart mobility, integrated
mobility)
– Automotive Technologies & new business models, including EV’s, carsharing, ridesharing, taxi
applications, ticketing & payment, and connectivity projects
– Integrated Mobility and associated technologies/behavioral or social change
– New Mobility Schemes (including BRT, PRT, cycle hire)

7. Shell
THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY: IS
PERSONAL CAR OWNERSHIP A
THING OF THE PAST?
Energy Collective Webinar
November 4 2015
Wolfgang Warnecke,
Chief Scientist, Mobility Shell Global Solutions (Deutschland) GmbH
November 4 2015 7

8. Shell
THE EVOLUTION OF THE WORLD’S ENERGY SYSTEM
FROM 1800 TO TODAY

9. Shell
FUTURE MOBILITY: DRIVERS & TRENDS
NEW
MOBILITY
ENVIRONMENT NEW VEHICLES LEGISLATION
ENERGY
NEW CONSUMER
VALUES
URBANISATION
CHANGE IN
TRANSPORTATION
COSTS &
CONVENIENCE
GHG reduction
Zero smog emissions
Emission-free vehicles
BEV (PHEV)/FCEV
Noise reduction
Remote drive
Sub ‚Smart‘ vehicles & pedelecs
Combustion engine improvements
Hybridisation
Worldwide harmonisation
Emission limits (Noise, Smog & GHG)
Lights & brakes
Safety
Trade barriers
Gov. R&D funding
Crude oil ends
More gas
Advanced biofuels
Renewable hydrogen
Green electricity
Emotional mobility
Mobility on demand
Bike share
Car share
Travel time
Ageing population
New architecture (‘Live & Park‘)
Suburbanisation (USA)
Urbanisation (Asia)
Open up new driveways
Traffic density
Online purchase behaviour
Increase in goods
transportation
Reducing personal mileage
Refuelling convenience
Transport mile/vehicle
Cost of ownership
‘Continous Online‘ demand &
connectivity
Changing lifestyle
(Remote work; Internet shopping etc)

10. Shell
DRIVETRAINS, FUELS AND LUBRICANTS ...
… PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
?
10

12. 12
Transport = Door-to-door
Mobility
• New Vehicles: BRT, EV,
High Speed Rail
• New Business Models:
Vehicle Sharing, Car Pooling
• Inter- Connectivity: Inter-
modality
• Urban Planning:
Reallocation of street space
• Integrated Mobility: New
technology enabled multi
modal integration
Paradigm Shift from Vehicle Ownership to Vehicle Usage
Transport =
Private Vehicle
• Freedom
• Convenience
• Status
• Progress
• No Real Alternative
Gen Y
Connectivity
Population
Growth
Urbanization
Social
Responsibility
Natural
Resources
Pollution
Congestion
Globalization
Virtualization
Mobility Integration: Paradigm Shift from
Vehicle Ownership to Vehicle Usage

13. 13
Car On Demand, and Mobility on Demand
The true disruptive forces in Mobility are taking place via platforms linking supply & demand, a marketplace
phenomenon; customers now expect mobility services on demand
Didi
Taxi
Carsharing
Car on
Demand Ridesharing
Parking
Integrated
Mobility
Rise of platforms matching supply and demand to reduce spare capacity and
improve the user experience > Customers now expect on-demand solutions and are
happy to use shared services.

14. Automation may affect light-duty vehicle energy
consumption through numerous mechanisms
@DonMackenzie9

15. Join the Conversation…
Follow along and
share your thoughts
on Twitter at
#EnergyChat
Submit your
questions in the
GoToWebinar
control panel
#EnergyChat

16. Webinar Panelists:
Wolfgang Warnecke, Ph.D.
Chief Scientist Mobility, Shell
Dr. Wolfgang Warnecke was appointed as Shell’s Chief Scientist for Mobility in May 2011. His expertise in
all forms of mobility, vehicle technology, fuels and lubricants sees him advising on technology strategy,
championing science, R&D and innovation, enhancing Shell’s technical reputation in the fast-changing
area of mobility and looking ahead to future solutions. Wolfgang studied Mechanical Engineering at the
Technical University of Hannover, specialising in automotive combustion engines, and gained a PhD in
Automotive Engineering from Hamburg Tech. University in 1987. @Shell
Don MacKenzie, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Washington
Don MacKenzie is an assistant professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering at the University of
Washington in Seattle. His research addresses the travel and charging behavior or electric vehicle owners,
the environmental and social equity implications of shared-use transportation services, and the effects of
vehicle automation on energy demand. He holds a PhD in Engineering Systems from MIT, and previously
worked as a researcher on technical and policy issues spanning fuel cells, biofuels, and efficiency
technologies in both the private and non-profit sectors.
Shwetha Surender
Program Manager, Mobility | Frost & Sullivan| Automotive & Transportation
Leading Frost & Sullivan’s mobility research with a particular expertise in:
– Urban Mobility & Transport Policy (including car sharing, electric vehicles, smart mobility, integrated
mobility)
– Automotive Technologies & new business models, including EV’s, carsharing, ridesharing, taxi
applications, ticketing & payment, and connectivity projects
– Integrated Mobility and associated technologies/behavioral or social change
– New Mobility Schemes (including BRT, PRT, cycle hire)

17. Special Thanks to our Sponsor
#EnergyChat