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www.TransformingTransportation.org
Electric powered two-wheelers
(e-bikes): a welcome game-changer?
Chris Cherry, Associat...
Electric powered two-wheelers (e-bikes): a
welcome game-changer?
Chris Cherry
Associate Professor – Civil and Environmenta...
China Market
 Simply put: e-bikes are fastest and largest
growth of alt-fuel in history of motorization
China Market
 Simply put again: e-bikes are the most energy
(and CO2) efficient motorized mode that exists
10x
4x
2x
Benefits compared to what?
 China: e-bike tend to displace transit…and cars
Previous e‐bike studies and potential mode sh...
Benefits compared to what?
 Kunming: bicycles dimming, 1 in 4 e-bikes displace car-based trip
E-bike Rider Previous
Mode
...
E-bike riders as future car owners
 Kunming: ~40% of e-bike riders have car in household, now more
than bicycles and rela...
E-bike riders as future car owners
 Is Kunming representative?
 We conducted a national telephone survey and found simil...
So what’s not to love?
 E-bikes have an image problem
E-bikes unsafe or vulnerable?
E-bikes unsafe or vulnerable?
 Recent studies on e-bikes find:
– e-bike riders behave poorly
– e-bike fatalities up a lit...
What about the batteries?
Battery production loss rates
hover around 20-30% of the
battery weight…
Multiplied by tens of m...
What about the batteries?
Bikesharing as externality control
Bikesharing as externality control
 Bikeshare/Scooter share
– Beijing stated preference mode switch model of e-
bike shar...
Key findings from UTK study
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Walk Personal
Bike
Bus Car No Trip
PercentTrips
Mode Displaced by UTK E...
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
Low Gas
Prices
High Gas
Prices
Ahmedabad Market Potential Controlling for 
Price and ...
Penetrating Motorcycle Markets
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Low Gas
Prices &
No Tax
Incentive
High Gas
Prices &
No Tax
Ince...
 In China, without a doubt
 In USA, about 200k sold last year
 In Europe, about two million sold
 At this year’s Inter...
Conclude
 E-bike riders are vulnerable but the industry
can be its own worst enemy (weight and speed)
 E-bikes should pe...
Thanks
Christopher Cherry
Associate Professor
Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Tennessee-Knoxville
321 JD...
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Electric powered two-wheelers (e-bikes): a welcome game-changer? - Chris Cherry - University of Tennessee, Knoxville - Transforming Transportation 2015

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Chris Cherry presented on the future of ebikes at the Transforming Transformation 2015.

Transforming Transportation 2015: Smart Cities for Shared Prosperity is the annual conference co-organized by the World Resources Institute and the World Bank.

Published in: Environment
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Electric powered two-wheelers (e-bikes): a welcome game-changer? - Chris Cherry - University of Tennessee, Knoxville - Transforming Transportation 2015

  1. 1. www.TransformingTransportation.org Electric powered two-wheelers (e-bikes): a welcome game-changer? Chris Cherry, Associate Professor, University of Tennessee, Knoxville Presented at Transforming Transportation 2015
  2. 2. Electric powered two-wheelers (e-bikes): a welcome game-changer? Chris Cherry Associate Professor – Civil and Environmental Engineering Transportation Engineering and Science Program University of Tennessee, Knoxville Note: most work presented here sponsored by NSF CAREER Award CBET –1055282 and supported by current and former students Shuguang Ji, Andrew Campbell, Luke Jones, Ziwen Ling, and Hongtai Yang
  3. 3. China Market  Simply put: e-bikes are fastest and largest growth of alt-fuel in history of motorization
  4. 4. China Market  Simply put again: e-bikes are the most energy (and CO2) efficient motorized mode that exists 10x 4x 2x
  5. 5. Benefits compared to what?  China: e-bike tend to displace transit…and cars Previous e‐bike studies and potential mode shift.
  6. 6. Benefits compared to what?  Kunming: bicycles dimming, 1 in 4 e-bikes displace car-based trip E-bike Rider Previous Mode E-bike Rider Current Best Alternative
  7. 7. E-bike riders as future car owners  Kunming: ~40% of e-bike riders have car in household, now more than bicycles and relatively large fraction plan to purchase In Kunming: Household vehicle ownership and purchase plans.
  8. 8. E-bike riders as future car owners  Is Kunming representative?  We conducted a national telephone survey and found similar results: HH car ownership (19-40%), purchase plans (8-30%).  Hierarchical logit for car purchase: HH variables matter most, some city/regional-level data.
  9. 9. So what’s not to love?  E-bikes have an image problem
  10. 10. E-bikes unsafe or vulnerable?
  11. 11. E-bikes unsafe or vulnerable?  Recent studies on e-bikes find: – e-bike riders behave poorly – e-bike fatalities up a little less than e-bike growth
  12. 12. What about the batteries? Battery production loss rates hover around 20-30% of the battery weight… Multiplied by tens of millions of batteries a year
  13. 13. What about the batteries?
  14. 14. Bikesharing as externality control
  15. 15. Bikesharing as externality control  Bikeshare/Scooter share – Beijing stated preference mode switch model of e- bike sharing vs. bicycle sharing – E-bike: bad air days, hot days, longer trips, compete with transit – E-bikes pull from “sheltered” modes – Young- and middle-aged male respondents more likely to use e-bikes and bikeshare in general
  16. 16. Key findings from UTK study 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Walk Personal Bike Bus Car No Trip PercentTrips Mode Displaced by UTK E-bike Sharing System E-Bike Bike  E-bike trip lengths longer  More utility errand-type trips  More comfortable  People used regular bicycles more than we expected (both free). 30% of bicycle choosers disliked e-bike (43% of women) 1. Langford, B. C., Cherry, C., Yoon, T., Worley, S. & Smith, D. North America's First E-Bikeshare. Transportation Research Record 2387, 120–128 (2014). 2. Ji, S., Cherry, C. R., Han, L. D. & Jordan, D. A. Electric bike sharing: simulation of user demand and system availability. Journal of Cleaner Production 1–8 (2013).
  17. 17. 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 21% 23% Low Gas Prices High Gas Prices Ahmedabad Market Potential Controlling for  Price and Technology Cherry, C. & Jones, L. Electric Two-Wheelers in India and Viet Nam: Market Analysis and Environmental Impacts. Asian Development Bank 1–54 (2010). Penetrating Motorcycle Markets
  18. 18. Penetrating Motorcycle Markets 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Low Gas Prices & No Tax Incentive High Gas Prices & No Tax Incentive Low Gas Prices & 10% Tax Incentive High Gas Prices & 10% Tax Incentive Hanoi Market Potential Controlling for  Price, Technology, and Regulation Jones, L. R., Cherry, C. R., Vu, T. A. & Nguyen, Q. N. The effect of incentives and technology on the adoption of electric motorcycles: A stated choice experiment in Vietnam. Transportation Research Part A 57, 1–11 (2013).
  19. 19.  In China, without a doubt  In USA, about 200k sold last year  In Europe, about two million sold  At this year’s Interbike, Gary Fisher called e- bikes the “next big thing” for the bicycle industry Are e-bikes a game changer?
  20. 20. Conclude  E-bike riders are vulnerable but the industry can be its own worst enemy (weight and speed)  E-bikes should perform like bicycles in places where bicycles can compete  E-scooters need push/pull to compete in established motorcycle markets  Bikesharing has big potential to support sustainable e-bike deployment
  21. 21. Thanks Christopher Cherry Associate Professor Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Tennessee-Knoxville 321 JD Tickle Building Knoxville, TN 37996-2313 phone: 865-974-7710 mobile: 865-684-8106 email: cherry@utk.edu http://web.utk.edu/~cherry http://www.cycleushare.com http://tesp.engr.utk.edu/lever.php

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