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What is the mobility of the future?

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What is the mobility of the future?

  1. 1. What is the Mobility of the Future? January 2012 Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant, Frost & Sullivan, April 2016
  2. 2. 2 7 major challenges to be taken into account to develop the mobility of the future 2 global challenges - CO2 emissions & end of cheap oil, 3 local challenges – pollution, congestion & parking and 2 economic challenges - unemployment & trade deficit 3 Local Challenges Pollution Congestion Parking 2 Economic Challenges – rising unemployment & trade deficit End of cheap oilCO2 emissions 2 Global Challenges
  3. 3. 3 The mobility of the future should improve our trade balance Half of the €50 bn trade deficit increase from 2004 to 2016 is due to the decline of the French automotive industry: +€13bn in 2004 to - €10bn in 2016 Source : http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr Trade balance by sector from 2004 to 2016 - € billions- -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Energie Industrie manufacturière (hors produits pétroliers et automobile) Industrie automobile Agriculture, silviculture, pêche et aquaculture Tradebalance(€billions)
  4. 4. 4 The mobility of the future should also create jobs & reduce global CO2 emissions Since 2000, 12 automotive assembly plant closed in Western Europe while 11 automotive assembly plants opened in Eastern Europe where labour cost is lower but electricity dirtier Labour cost - Manufacturing industry, €/h - 5 € 10 € 15 € 20 € 25 € 30 € 35 € 40 € 45 € Source : Coe – Rexecode, Eurostat, Inovev Electricity production from coal - % of total electricity production in 2012 - 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % 30 % 35 % 40 % 45 % Source : Worldbank Manufacturing the vehicle of the future in a country using coal as its main source for electricity production – Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Turkey or Morocco – is not necessarily a good idea if we really care about climate change
  5. 5. 5 Is the electric car the mobility of the future? We thought the issue was that the private car used gasoline or diesel and we made it electric. What if the issue was that it is private? Space occupied in a city street to transport 60 persons
  6. 6. 6 Is the private car the mobility of the future? If these idiots would just take the bus, I could be home by now... A 10% increase in the occupancy rate of our cars would be sufficient to get rid of most of traffic jams
  7. 7. 7 Transport = Private Vehicle • Freedom • Convenience • Status • Progress • No Real Alternative Gen Y Population Growth Energy / Natural Resources Urbanisation Technology/ Connectivity Social Responsibility • New Vehicles : Electric bikes, Electric cars, Electric scooters • New Business Models Vehicle sharing, Ride sharing • New technologies Internet, Geolocalisation, Smartphones Pollution Congestion Globalisation Virtualisation Transport = Shared Mobility “People will always change for a better alternative” Paradigm Shift from Private Transport to Shared Mobility More than 75% of people live in a urban area where space is very limited We can’t afford any more to all drive our private vehicle on our own when alternatives exists  The urban mobility of the future will be shared or won’t be at all! Source: Frost & Sullivan
  8. 8. 8 How can we address our saturated yet underutilised road infrastructure issue? More roads, smaller vehicles, more people per car or less cars More Roads Smaller Vehicles Less CarsMore People per Car
  9. 9. 9 Vehicle sharing - car, scooter & bike - is a great alternative for urban mobility... ... all the more as private car use is constrained in cities ElectricConventional Bike Car Bike Sharing Electric Bike Sharing Electric Car SharingPeer-to-peer Car Sharing Scooter Source: Frost & Sullivan
  10. 10. 10 Ride sharing – taxi, public transport & car pooling - is also a great alternative The combination of new technologies – internet, geo-localisation & smart phones – made those alternatives much more user friendly then they used to be 15 years ago “Planned” Car pooling Instant Short Distance Planned Long Distance Higher Price per KM Lower Price per KM “On Demand” Car pooling “Taxi” Services & private chauffeurs Public Transport Source: Frost & Sullivan
  11. 11. 11 Small cars are not an option anymore - it is a necessity to preserve our mobility While cheap oil availability is more and more constrained especially in Europe, it is high time to develop small & light cars which are fuel efficient – 1l/100 km and affordable Source: Gregory Launay Liquid fuels extraction - 1930 à 2050 - • A 800 kg hybrid-air car would have a 2 L/100 km fuel consumption • A 600 kg range extended electric vehicle would have a 1L/100 km fuel consumption Significantly reduce vehicle weight is the most efficient way to reduce transportation energy consumption, which depends for 97% on oil Extractioninbillionsofoil barrelsperyear Peugeot BB1 Rex Hybrid Air Fuel consumption of a car vs. weight and energy efficiency
  12. 12. 12 Is the driverless car the new mobility of the future after the electric car? If it is small, electric, full and shared, why not? Drive and Let Drive Concept Can be manually driven or self- driven by the vehicle Predetermined A-to-B Personal Mobility with Route Inputs Ideally suitable for Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) Ideally suitable for urban commuters and people with special mobility needs Fully-automated vehicles hold the potential for fundamental rethinking of vehicle designs. For instance, partially collapsible vehicles also save parking space when not in motion Autonomous Adaptive Mobility Vehicles Source: Frost & Sullivan; MIRA Ltd
  13. 13. 13 What is the most efficient transport mode in a city? Whether it is on the energy side or the physical footprint, the most efficient transport mode in a city where space is limited are bus, scooters & bikes Car 1,4 t 10 m2 1,3 person  >1000 kg & 7.7 m2 per person Quadricycle 500 kg 3 m2 1 person  500 kg & 3 m2 per person Bus 12 t 42 m2 30 persons 430 kg & 1.4 m2 per person Scooter 125 kg 2 m2 1 person  125 kg & 2 m2 per person Electric bike 20 kg 1 m2 1 person  20 kg & 1 m2 per person Bike 10 kg 1 m2 1 person  10 kg & 1 m2 per person Source: Frost & Sullivan, PREDIT, 6t - Bureau de Recherche. Average speed in European cities (km/h) 5 15 16 18 19 17
  14. 14. 14 What are the most efficient solutions to address urban mobility challenges? Restriction on car circulation, improved public transportation, dedicated lane for bus & bikes and small fuel-efficient vehicles European CountriesSolutions from China Already in place Good idea? Feasible?Pollution Congestion Safety Parking Quota on new vehicle purchase  Restriction on circulation Increased parking fees  Improved public transportation Dedicated lane for bus & bikes  Government push for car electrification Small fuel-efficient vehicles    
  15. 15. 15 What does the mobility of the future look like? David PodRide or Goliath Tesla? Source: http://www.jmk-innovation.se/?lang=en Technical specifications PodRide Electric bicycle-car Tesla S Autonomous electric tank PodRide vs. Tesla S Weight 70 kg 2 100 kg 30 times lighter Dimensions 1.8 m x 0.75 m 1.35 m2 5 m x 2 m 10m2 7 times smaller Top speed 25 km/h 225 km/h 10 times more slowly Power 250 W 235 kW 1000 times less powerful Battery capacity 0.7 kWh 70 kWh 100 times smaller Electric range 60 km 450 km 7 times lower Price 3,000 € 80,000 € 25 times cheaper
  16. 16. 16 Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant Energy & Transportation Practices (+33) 1 42 81 23 24 nicolas .meilhan@frost.com

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