Toward Micromobility: The Low End Disruption of Transportation

Horace Dediu
Horace DediuCo-Founder & CSO at NERE
MICROMOBILITY
TOWARD
Microsoft Revenues by Segment
Windows & Win Live/Dev&Cons Licensing/Prod&Bus Processes
Server and Tools /Computing/Gaming Hardware
Online Services/Dev&Cons Other/Intelligent Cloud
Microsoft Business/Commercial Licensing/More Pers. Computing
Entertainment & Devices Commercial Other
Phone Hardware
Unallocated and other
Q307
Q407
Q108
Q208
Q308
Q408
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Q110
Q210
Q310
Q410
Q111
Q211
Q311
Q411
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113
Q213
Q313
Q413
Q114
Q214
Q314
Q414
Q115
Q215
Q315
Q415
Q116
Q216
Q316
Q416
Mac
Software
Other Products
iPod
Services
iPhone
iPad
Microsoft Operating Income
Google Revenues by Segment
$0m
$10,000m
$20,000m
$30,000m
$40,000m
Q307
Q407
Q108
Q208
Q308
Q408
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Q110
Q210
Q310
Q410
Q111
Q211
Q311
Q411
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113
Q213
Q313
Q413
Q114
Q214
Q314
Q414
Q115
Q215
Q315
Q415
Q116
Q216
Q316
Q416
Google web sites
Google Network web sites
Licensing and other revenues
Motorola revenues
Other bets
Google Operating Income
$0m
$10,000m
$20,000m
Amazon Revenues
Amazon Services Sales
Amazon Product Sales
Amazon Revenues
Amazon Operating Income
Includes inter-segment sales
Facebook Revenues by Segment
Advertising revenues:
Payments and other fees
Facebook Operating Income
PERSPECTIVE
ADDRESSABLE MARKET
$0
$2,000,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000,000
$8,000,000,000,000
$10,000,000,000,000
$12,000,000,000,000
$14,000,000,000,000
$16,000,000,000,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
VEHICLE MANUFACTURING
ON-DEMAND RIDES
OTHER TRANSPORTATION SERVICES
LOGISTICS
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
APPLE REVENUES
$15 Trillion
NEGROPONTE
SWITCH
WIRELESS
WIRED
time
MOBILE
SWITCH
HIGH
LOW
time
“Computing”
AUTONOMY?
HEAVY
LIGHT
time
Weight
UNBUNDLING
SMALL DISTANCES IN SMALL VEHICLES
LARGE DISTANCES IN LARGE VEHICLES
LONG
SHORT
time
Distance
MICROMOBILITY
SWITCH
DRIVEN
DRIVING
time
Population
Density,
Modality
Toward Micromobility: The Low End Disruption of Transportation
Toward Micromobility: The Low End Disruption of Transportation
Micromobility
Micromobility
• 9:00 to 9:15 Introductions, Agenda
• 9:15 to 10:00 “Toward Microautonomobility” Horace Dediu
• 10:00 to 10:15 Coffee Break
• 10:15 to 11:00 "The Physics of Getting Around: Why urban
transport is the killer app for electric powertrains.” Steven
Anderson
• 11:00 to 12:00 “How motorcycles will play a mayor role in the
future of mobility” Jesper Vind
• 12:00 to 13:00 Lunch
• 13:00 to 13:45 “How Bikes Will Eat Cars” The eruption of on-
demand nanomobility, Horace Dediu
• 14:00 to 14:45 Panel: "How are the three innovations: on-
demand dispatch, Li-ion batteries and automated driving
affecting vehicular designs?"
• 14:45 to 15:00 Coffee Break
• 15:00 to 15:45 “How to segment transportation by Jobs to Be
Done” Why we’re always measuring the wrong things. Horace
Dediu
• 16:00 to 17:00 Provocative statements in open discussion.
MICRO AUTONOMOBILITY
TOWARD
TOWARD MICROMOBILITY
VISION
PRODUCT SERVICE CAPITAL ASSET
OWNERSHIP HAILING SUBSCRIPTION CONTRACT
TOKEN
1900-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-
Business Construct
Customer Offer
SERVITIZATION SECURITIZATION TOKENIZATIONDisruption
• Autonomy collapses on-
demand pricing
• Electric drive lowers
operating costs
• Manufacturing
breakthroughs lower CAPEX
and evaporate unitized costs
• As a result,
Rides can be capitalized
ON-DEMAND
ECONOMICS
(US)
$0
$3
$6
$9
$12
$15
$18
$8.90
$3.81
$4.47
LYFT REVENUE / RIDE
DRIVER COSTS
DRIVER INCOME
RIDE ECONOMICS
YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 YEAR 6 YEAR 7 YEAR 8
OPERATING MARGIN
DEPRECIATION
MAINTENANCE, INSURANCE AND FUEL
LABOR COST
Ride Price
-10
DRIVERACQUISITIONCOST
Perpetually
Negative Cash Flow
Positive Ride Economics Scale with Fleet Size
THE MARKET IS OVER-
SERVING
WEIGHT FOR SUCCESSIVE VEHICLE GENERATIONS IN THE
EUROPEAN COMPACT SEGMENT
L <4 WHEELS
light two-wheel powered vehicle L1e 2
powered cycle (Pedelec) L1e-A 2
two-wheel moped (incl. S-Pedelec) L1e-B 2
three-wheel moped L2e 3
three-wheel moped for passenger transport L2e-P 3
three wheel moped for utility purposes L2e-U 3
two-wheel motorcycle L3e 2
low-performance motorcycle L3e-A1 2
medium-performance motorcycle L3e-A2 2
high-performance motorcycle L3e-A3 2
enduro motorcycle L3e-A1E 2
enduro motorcycle L3e-A2E 2
enduro motorcycle L3e-A3E 2
trial motorcycle L3e-A1T 2
trial motorcycle L3e-A2T 2
trial motorcycle L3e-A3T 2
two-wheel motorcycle with side-car L4e 3
powered tricycle L5e 3
tricycle (mainly designed for passenger transport) L5e-A 3
commercial tricycle (utility tricycle exclusively
designed for the carriage of goods)
L5e-B 3
L 4 WHEELS
light quadricycle L6e 4
light on-road quad L6e-A 4
light quadri-mobile L6e-B 4
light quadri-mobile for utility purposes L6e-BU 4
light quadri-mobile for passenger transport L6e-BP 4
heavy quadricycles L7e 4
heavy on-road quad L7e-A 4
A1 on-road quad L7e-A1 4
A2 on-road quad L7e-A2 4
heavy all terrain quad L7e-B 4
all terrain quad L7e-B1 4
side-by-side buggy L7e-B2 4
heavy quadri-mobile L7e-C: 4
heavy quadri-mobile for utility purposes L7e-CU: 4
heavy quadri-mobile for passenger L7e-CP: 4
EU GENERAL CLASSIFICATION OF VEHICLE CATEGORIES
M ≥ 4 WHEELS
no more than eight seats in addition to the driver seat
(mainly, cars)
M1:
more than eight seats in addition to the driver seat (buses):
having a maximum mass not exceeding 5 tonnes (11,000 lb)
M2:
having a maximum mass exceeding 5 tonnes M3:
N: used for the carriage of goods (trucks): having a
maximum mass not exceeding 3.5 tonnes (7,700 lb)
N1:
having a maximum mass exceeding 3.5 tonnes but not
exceeding 12 tonnes (26,000 lb)
N2:
having a maximum mass exceeding 12 tonnes N3:
EU GENERAL CLASSIFICATION OF VEHICLE CATEGORIES
Toward Micromobility: The Low End Disruption of Transportation
Japan North America EU China
e-Kei
Neighborhood
Electric Car
Light Quadricycle
(L6e)
Rural Vehicle
Golf Car
Heavy Quadricycle
(L7e)
LSEV
Personal Transportation (PTV 20 mph) (LSV: 25mph) PTV is state, LSV is federal
LSV will be universal, Growth in personal transportation vehicles, errands, double digit growth
NOMENCLATURE
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
CHINA
EU E QUAD
US
JAPAN(I-MIEV)
ROW
MARKET HISTORY
Gordon Murray T.25
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
China
RoW 10% of Heavy Car Market RoW
15% of Heavy Car Market China
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
FORECAST
T.25
Length 2.4 m
Width 1.3 m
Height 1.6 m
Curb weight 575 kg
BMW I3
4 m
1.8 m
1.6 m
1,195 kg (60Ah)
TESL A S
5 m
2 m
1.4 m
2,200 kg (90D)
0
5
10
15
20
25
T.25 i3 Tesla
Weight x100 kg
Volume cubic meters
T.25
Scale: 1m
T.25
Width of US traffic lane
(3.7m)
T.25
PARKING
COST OF BATTERY PACK
Estimated Costs for Automotive Lithium Batteries (Pack)$/kWh
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
$1,250
$1,300
$1,350
$1,400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
LG Chem 2017
Daimler 2016
Carnegie Mellon University 2016
Cairn Energy Research Advisors 2016
Nat. Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) 2016
Panasonic 2016
Tesla 2016
MIT (Sadoway) 2016
Ford (cell) 2016
Tesla 2015
GM 2015
MIT (Industry expert interviews) 2015
Stockholm Environment Institute 2015
Johnson Matthey 2015
Argonne National Lab 2015
Tesla 2014
US Dept. of Energy 2014
MIT (Sakti et al.) 2014
Umicore 2014
Australian Renewable Energy Agency 2014
Advanced Automotive Batteries 2014
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland 2014
USABC (Industry) 2013
Argonne National Lab 2013
Johnson Matthey 2012
LG Chemical 2010
Average
Power Curve fit
NEW PRODUCTION
SYSTEM
A NEW PLANT ARCHITECTURE
BODY
PAINT
ASSEMBLY
100K UNITS/YR.
MIN. $300 MILLION CAPEX
TRANSFER PRESSES
WELDING ROBOTS
WASH
PAINT ROBOTS
OVENS
POWER TOOLS
ROBOTS
20K UNITS/YR.
$50 MILLION CAPEX
CURRENT RIDE STREAM
$50 MILLION PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT $10 MILLION DEVELOPMENT
MERGE
PANELS
INJECTION
MOULDING
POWER TOOLS
CHASSIS
TUBE BENDING
& WELDING
CURRENT ISTREAM
TOOLING
PROCESS FLOW PAINT SHOP
1. Detergent wash
2. Degrease
3. Rinse
4. Conditioning Rinse
5. Phosphate treatment
6. Dip Rinse
7. Demineralized water Spray
8. Electrophoresis
9. Spray rinse
10. Bake
11. Joint Seal
12. Underseal
13. Stone Chip Primer
14. Primer Surface
15. Bake
16. Top Coat
17. Bake
18. Wax Injection
NO LONGER NEEDED
FACTORY BENEFITS
• Metal presses replaced with tools
for bending, welding
• 20% the size of a conventional
factory
• Capital investment reduced by 80%
• Operating expenses reduced by
lower energy requirements
• Reduced space requirements
• Lower real estate costs
• Location flexibility
• Closer to market
• Reduced transportation costs
A NEW BUSINESS ARCHITECTURE
• Modular assembly and value chain
• Separate frame and panel plants
• Separate assembly plants
• Re-defined sales and service
economics
• Local component supply
ecosystem
• Brand creation benefits
1 of 32

More Related Content

What's hot(20)

Honda MarketingHonda Marketing
Honda Marketing
Eka Darmadi1.6K views
Harley Davidson FinalHarley Davidson Final
Harley Davidson Final
paddy1232.9K views
Harley Davidson, Strategic Analysis Harley Davidson, Strategic Analysis
Harley Davidson, Strategic Analysis
Mahmoud M. Hamid112.2K views
Urban transport (MODAL SHIFT ANALYSIS)Urban transport (MODAL SHIFT ANALYSIS)
Urban transport (MODAL SHIFT ANALYSIS)
syafiqahbahrin1.5K views
Pressure hull and exostructurePressure hull and exostructure
Pressure hull and exostructure
pritesh gunjal192 views
Fabrication of Tilt suspension Trike/Bike.Fabrication of Tilt suspension Trike/Bike.
Fabrication of Tilt suspension Trike/Bike.
Rajasekhar Neeruganti5.4K views
Harley davidsonHarley davidson
Harley davidson
Ravneet Kandhola18.1K views
Alang ship breaking yardAlang ship breaking yard
Alang ship breaking yard
Harbinder Singh3.4K views
Public Bicycle Scheme in IndiaPublic Bicycle Scheme in India
Public Bicycle Scheme in India
Jaspal Singh7.6K views
Who is BYD?Who is BYD?
Who is BYD?
WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities1.6K views
Royal EnfieldRoyal Enfield
Royal Enfield
Shantanu Mandavgane425 views
Rotary BasicsRotary Basics
Rotary Basics
Rotary Club Voorburg Vliet3.4K views
Montague CorporationMontague Corporation
Montague Corporation
Jelizaveta Parsina3.6K views
BentleyBentley
Bentley
Vaibhav Singh4K views
Sustainability in Transport SectorSustainability in Transport Sector
Sustainability in Transport Sector
Guru Nank Dev Engineering College, Ludhiana, Punjab, India-1410062.3K views
Harley davidsonHarley davidson
Harley davidson
Karan Verma2.7K views

Similar to Toward Micromobility: The Low End Disruption of Transportation(20)

Recently uploaded(20)

The Research Portal of Catalonia: Growing more (information) & more (services)The Research Portal of Catalonia: Growing more (information) & more (services)
The Research Portal of Catalonia: Growing more (information) & more (services)
CSUC - Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya51 views
[2023] Putting the R! in R&D.pdf[2023] Putting the R! in R&D.pdf
[2023] Putting the R! in R&D.pdf
Eleanor McHugh34 views
METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR PREDICTING OPTIMAL LOAD FOR WHICH THE YIELD IS MAXIMUM ...METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR PREDICTING OPTIMAL LOAD FOR WHICH THE YIELD IS MAXIMUM ...
METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR PREDICTING OPTIMAL LOAD FOR WHICH THE YIELD IS MAXIMUM ...
Prity Khastgir IPR Strategic India Patent Attorney Amplify Innovation23 views
Web Dev - 1 PPT.pdfWeb Dev - 1 PPT.pdf
Web Dev - 1 PPT.pdf
gdsczhcet48 views
Liqid: Composable CXL PreviewLiqid: Composable CXL Preview
Liqid: Composable CXL Preview
CXL Forum118 views

Toward Micromobility: The Low End Disruption of Transportation

  • 2. Microsoft Revenues by Segment Windows & Win Live/Dev&Cons Licensing/Prod&Bus Processes Server and Tools /Computing/Gaming Hardware Online Services/Dev&Cons Other/Intelligent Cloud Microsoft Business/Commercial Licensing/More Pers. Computing Entertainment & Devices Commercial Other Phone Hardware Unallocated and other Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Mac Software Other Products iPod Services iPhone iPad Microsoft Operating Income Google Revenues by Segment $0m $10,000m $20,000m $30,000m $40,000m Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Google web sites Google Network web sites Licensing and other revenues Motorola revenues Other bets Google Operating Income $0m $10,000m $20,000m Amazon Revenues Amazon Services Sales Amazon Product Sales Amazon Revenues Amazon Operating Income Includes inter-segment sales Facebook Revenues by Segment Advertising revenues: Payments and other fees Facebook Operating Income PERSPECTIVE
  • 3. ADDRESSABLE MARKET $0 $2,000,000,000,000 $4,000,000,000,000 $6,000,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000,000 $12,000,000,000,000 $14,000,000,000,000 $16,000,000,000,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 VEHICLE MANUFACTURING ON-DEMAND RIDES OTHER TRANSPORTATION SERVICES LOGISTICS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 APPLE REVENUES $15 Trillion
  • 7. UNBUNDLING SMALL DISTANCES IN SMALL VEHICLES LARGE DISTANCES IN LARGE VEHICLES LONG SHORT time Distance
  • 12. Micromobility • 9:00 to 9:15 Introductions, Agenda • 9:15 to 10:00 “Toward Microautonomobility” Horace Dediu • 10:00 to 10:15 Coffee Break • 10:15 to 11:00 "The Physics of Getting Around: Why urban transport is the killer app for electric powertrains.” Steven Anderson • 11:00 to 12:00 “How motorcycles will play a mayor role in the future of mobility” Jesper Vind • 12:00 to 13:00 Lunch • 13:00 to 13:45 “How Bikes Will Eat Cars” The eruption of on- demand nanomobility, Horace Dediu • 14:00 to 14:45 Panel: "How are the three innovations: on- demand dispatch, Li-ion batteries and automated driving affecting vehicular designs?" • 14:45 to 15:00 Coffee Break • 15:00 to 15:45 “How to segment transportation by Jobs to Be Done” Why we’re always measuring the wrong things. Horace Dediu • 16:00 to 17:00 Provocative statements in open discussion.
  • 14. TOWARD MICROMOBILITY VISION PRODUCT SERVICE CAPITAL ASSET OWNERSHIP HAILING SUBSCRIPTION CONTRACT TOKEN 1900-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030- Business Construct Customer Offer SERVITIZATION SECURITIZATION TOKENIZATIONDisruption
  • 15. • Autonomy collapses on- demand pricing • Electric drive lowers operating costs • Manufacturing breakthroughs lower CAPEX and evaporate unitized costs • As a result, Rides can be capitalized ON-DEMAND ECONOMICS (US) $0 $3 $6 $9 $12 $15 $18 $8.90 $3.81 $4.47 LYFT REVENUE / RIDE DRIVER COSTS DRIVER INCOME RIDE ECONOMICS YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 YEAR 6 YEAR 7 YEAR 8 OPERATING MARGIN DEPRECIATION MAINTENANCE, INSURANCE AND FUEL LABOR COST Ride Price -10 DRIVERACQUISITIONCOST Perpetually Negative Cash Flow Positive Ride Economics Scale with Fleet Size
  • 16. THE MARKET IS OVER- SERVING WEIGHT FOR SUCCESSIVE VEHICLE GENERATIONS IN THE EUROPEAN COMPACT SEGMENT
  • 17. L <4 WHEELS light two-wheel powered vehicle L1e 2 powered cycle (Pedelec) L1e-A 2 two-wheel moped (incl. S-Pedelec) L1e-B 2 three-wheel moped L2e 3 three-wheel moped for passenger transport L2e-P 3 three wheel moped for utility purposes L2e-U 3 two-wheel motorcycle L3e 2 low-performance motorcycle L3e-A1 2 medium-performance motorcycle L3e-A2 2 high-performance motorcycle L3e-A3 2 enduro motorcycle L3e-A1E 2 enduro motorcycle L3e-A2E 2 enduro motorcycle L3e-A3E 2 trial motorcycle L3e-A1T 2 trial motorcycle L3e-A2T 2 trial motorcycle L3e-A3T 2 two-wheel motorcycle with side-car L4e 3 powered tricycle L5e 3 tricycle (mainly designed for passenger transport) L5e-A 3 commercial tricycle (utility tricycle exclusively designed for the carriage of goods) L5e-B 3 L 4 WHEELS light quadricycle L6e 4 light on-road quad L6e-A 4 light quadri-mobile L6e-B 4 light quadri-mobile for utility purposes L6e-BU 4 light quadri-mobile for passenger transport L6e-BP 4 heavy quadricycles L7e 4 heavy on-road quad L7e-A 4 A1 on-road quad L7e-A1 4 A2 on-road quad L7e-A2 4 heavy all terrain quad L7e-B 4 all terrain quad L7e-B1 4 side-by-side buggy L7e-B2 4 heavy quadri-mobile L7e-C: 4 heavy quadri-mobile for utility purposes L7e-CU: 4 heavy quadri-mobile for passenger L7e-CP: 4 EU GENERAL CLASSIFICATION OF VEHICLE CATEGORIES
  • 18. M ≥ 4 WHEELS no more than eight seats in addition to the driver seat (mainly, cars) M1: more than eight seats in addition to the driver seat (buses): having a maximum mass not exceeding 5 tonnes (11,000 lb) M2: having a maximum mass exceeding 5 tonnes M3: N: used for the carriage of goods (trucks): having a maximum mass not exceeding 3.5 tonnes (7,700 lb) N1: having a maximum mass exceeding 3.5 tonnes but not exceeding 12 tonnes (26,000 lb) N2: having a maximum mass exceeding 12 tonnes N3: EU GENERAL CLASSIFICATION OF VEHICLE CATEGORIES
  • 20. Japan North America EU China e-Kei Neighborhood Electric Car Light Quadricycle (L6e) Rural Vehicle Golf Car Heavy Quadricycle (L7e) LSEV Personal Transportation (PTV 20 mph) (LSV: 25mph) PTV is state, LSV is federal LSV will be universal, Growth in personal transportation vehicles, errands, double digit growth NOMENCLATURE
  • 22. Gordon Murray T.25 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 China RoW 10% of Heavy Car Market RoW 15% of Heavy Car Market China 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 FORECAST
  • 23. T.25 Length 2.4 m Width 1.3 m Height 1.6 m Curb weight 575 kg BMW I3 4 m 1.8 m 1.6 m 1,195 kg (60Ah) TESL A S 5 m 2 m 1.4 m 2,200 kg (90D) 0 5 10 15 20 25 T.25 i3 Tesla Weight x100 kg Volume cubic meters T.25 Scale: 1m
  • 24. T.25 Width of US traffic lane (3.7m) T.25
  • 26. COST OF BATTERY PACK Estimated Costs for Automotive Lithium Batteries (Pack)$/kWh $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 $900 $950 $1,000 $1,050 $1,100 $1,150 $1,200 $1,250 $1,300 $1,350 $1,400 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 LG Chem 2017 Daimler 2016 Carnegie Mellon University 2016 Cairn Energy Research Advisors 2016 Nat. Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) 2016 Panasonic 2016 Tesla 2016 MIT (Sadoway) 2016 Ford (cell) 2016 Tesla 2015 GM 2015 MIT (Industry expert interviews) 2015 Stockholm Environment Institute 2015 Johnson Matthey 2015 Argonne National Lab 2015 Tesla 2014 US Dept. of Energy 2014 MIT (Sakti et al.) 2014 Umicore 2014 Australian Renewable Energy Agency 2014 Advanced Automotive Batteries 2014 VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland 2014 USABC (Industry) 2013 Argonne National Lab 2013 Johnson Matthey 2012 LG Chemical 2010 Average Power Curve fit
  • 28. A NEW PLANT ARCHITECTURE BODY PAINT ASSEMBLY 100K UNITS/YR. MIN. $300 MILLION CAPEX TRANSFER PRESSES WELDING ROBOTS WASH PAINT ROBOTS OVENS POWER TOOLS ROBOTS 20K UNITS/YR. $50 MILLION CAPEX CURRENT RIDE STREAM $50 MILLION PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT $10 MILLION DEVELOPMENT MERGE PANELS INJECTION MOULDING POWER TOOLS CHASSIS TUBE BENDING & WELDING
  • 30. PROCESS FLOW PAINT SHOP 1. Detergent wash 2. Degrease 3. Rinse 4. Conditioning Rinse 5. Phosphate treatment 6. Dip Rinse 7. Demineralized water Spray 8. Electrophoresis 9. Spray rinse 10. Bake 11. Joint Seal 12. Underseal 13. Stone Chip Primer 14. Primer Surface 15. Bake 16. Top Coat 17. Bake 18. Wax Injection NO LONGER NEEDED
  • 31. FACTORY BENEFITS • Metal presses replaced with tools for bending, welding • 20% the size of a conventional factory • Capital investment reduced by 80% • Operating expenses reduced by lower energy requirements • Reduced space requirements • Lower real estate costs • Location flexibility • Closer to market • Reduced transportation costs
  • 32. A NEW BUSINESS ARCHITECTURE • Modular assembly and value chain • Separate frame and panel plants • Separate assembly plants • Re-defined sales and service economics • Local component supply ecosystem • Brand creation benefits