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Toward Micromobility: The Low End Disruption of Transportation

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There are two mechanisms by which technologies affect society: bundling and unbundling. This re-packaging resets the way companies are structured leading to reversal of incumbent position relative to entrants.

The Personal Computer unbundled the mainframe while the phone and tablet unbundled the PC. Microsoft bundled office work and the Internet bundled communications. Google unbundled information access and Apple bundled experiences. Amazon bundled retail while Facebook bundled media. The car in the 20th century bundled transportation.

Will the availability of new technologies in the 21st century enable a great unbundling of transportation?

Published in: Technology
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Toward Micromobility: The Low End Disruption of Transportation

  1. 1. MICROMOBILITY TOWARD
  2. 2. Microsoft Revenues by Segment Windows & Win Live/Dev&Cons Licensing/Prod&Bus Processes Server and Tools /Computing/Gaming Hardware Online Services/Dev&Cons Other/Intelligent Cloud Microsoft Business/Commercial Licensing/More Pers. Computing Entertainment & Devices Commercial Other Phone Hardware Unallocated and other Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Mac Software Other Products iPod Services iPhone iPad Microsoft Operating Income Google Revenues by Segment $0m $10,000m $20,000m $30,000m $40,000m Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Google web sites Google Network web sites Licensing and other revenues Motorola revenues Other bets Google Operating Income $0m $10,000m $20,000m Amazon Revenues Amazon Services Sales Amazon Product Sales Amazon Revenues Amazon Operating Income Includes inter-segment sales Facebook Revenues by Segment Advertising revenues: Payments and other fees Facebook Operating Income PERSPECTIVE
  3. 3. ADDRESSABLE MARKET $0 $2,000,000,000,000 $4,000,000,000,000 $6,000,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000,000 $12,000,000,000,000 $14,000,000,000,000 $16,000,000,000,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 VEHICLE MANUFACTURING ON-DEMAND RIDES OTHER TRANSPORTATION SERVICES LOGISTICS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 APPLE REVENUES $15 Trillion
  4. 4. NEGROPONTE SWITCH WIRELESS WIRED time
  5. 5. MOBILE SWITCH HIGH LOW time “Computing”
  6. 6. AUTONOMY? HEAVY LIGHT time Weight
  7. 7. UNBUNDLING SMALL DISTANCES IN SMALL VEHICLES LARGE DISTANCES IN LARGE VEHICLES LONG SHORT time Distance
  8. 8. MICROMOBILITY SWITCH DRIVEN DRIVING time Population Density, Modality
  9. 9. Micromobility
  10. 10. Micromobility • 9:00 to 9:15 Introductions, Agenda • 9:15 to 10:00 “Toward Microautonomobility” Horace Dediu • 10:00 to 10:15 Coffee Break • 10:15 to 11:00 "The Physics of Getting Around: Why urban transport is the killer app for electric powertrains.” Steven Anderson • 11:00 to 12:00 “How motorcycles will play a mayor role in the future of mobility” Jesper Vind • 12:00 to 13:00 Lunch • 13:00 to 13:45 “How Bikes Will Eat Cars” The eruption of on- demand nanomobility, Horace Dediu • 14:00 to 14:45 Panel: "How are the three innovations: on- demand dispatch, Li-ion batteries and automated driving affecting vehicular designs?" • 14:45 to 15:00 Coffee Break • 15:00 to 15:45 “How to segment transportation by Jobs to Be Done” Why we’re always measuring the wrong things. Horace Dediu • 16:00 to 17:00 Provocative statements in open discussion.
  11. 11. MICRO AUTONOMOBILITY TOWARD
  12. 12. TOWARD MICROMOBILITY VISION PRODUCT SERVICE CAPITAL ASSET OWNERSHIP HAILING SUBSCRIPTION CONTRACT TOKEN 1900-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030- Business Construct Customer Offer SERVITIZATION SECURITIZATION TOKENIZATIONDisruption
  13. 13. • Autonomy collapses on- demand pricing • Electric drive lowers operating costs • Manufacturing breakthroughs lower CAPEX and evaporate unitized costs • As a result, Rides can be capitalized ON-DEMAND ECONOMICS (US) $0 $3 $6 $9 $12 $15 $18 $8.90 $3.81 $4.47 LYFT REVENUE / RIDE DRIVER COSTS DRIVER INCOME RIDE ECONOMICS YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 YEAR 6 YEAR 7 YEAR 8 OPERATING MARGIN DEPRECIATION MAINTENANCE, INSURANCE AND FUEL LABOR COST Ride Price -10 DRIVERACQUISITIONCOST Perpetually Negative Cash Flow Positive Ride Economics Scale with Fleet Size
  14. 14. THE MARKET IS OVER- SERVING WEIGHT FOR SUCCESSIVE VEHICLE GENERATIONS IN THE EUROPEAN COMPACT SEGMENT
  15. 15. L <4 WHEELS light two-wheel powered vehicle L1e 2 powered cycle (Pedelec) L1e-A 2 two-wheel moped (incl. S-Pedelec) L1e-B 2 three-wheel moped L2e 3 three-wheel moped for passenger transport L2e-P 3 three wheel moped for utility purposes L2e-U 3 two-wheel motorcycle L3e 2 low-performance motorcycle L3e-A1 2 medium-performance motorcycle L3e-A2 2 high-performance motorcycle L3e-A3 2 enduro motorcycle L3e-A1E 2 enduro motorcycle L3e-A2E 2 enduro motorcycle L3e-A3E 2 trial motorcycle L3e-A1T 2 trial motorcycle L3e-A2T 2 trial motorcycle L3e-A3T 2 two-wheel motorcycle with side-car L4e 3 powered tricycle L5e 3 tricycle (mainly designed for passenger transport) L5e-A 3 commercial tricycle (utility tricycle exclusively designed for the carriage of goods) L5e-B 3 L 4 WHEELS light quadricycle L6e 4 light on-road quad L6e-A 4 light quadri-mobile L6e-B 4 light quadri-mobile for utility purposes L6e-BU 4 light quadri-mobile for passenger transport L6e-BP 4 heavy quadricycles L7e 4 heavy on-road quad L7e-A 4 A1 on-road quad L7e-A1 4 A2 on-road quad L7e-A2 4 heavy all terrain quad L7e-B 4 all terrain quad L7e-B1 4 side-by-side buggy L7e-B2 4 heavy quadri-mobile L7e-C: 4 heavy quadri-mobile for utility purposes L7e-CU: 4 heavy quadri-mobile for passenger L7e-CP: 4 EU GENERAL CLASSIFICATION OF VEHICLE CATEGORIES
  16. 16. M ≥ 4 WHEELS no more than eight seats in addition to the driver seat (mainly, cars) M1: more than eight seats in addition to the driver seat (buses): having a maximum mass not exceeding 5 tonnes (11,000 lb) M2: having a maximum mass exceeding 5 tonnes M3: N: used for the carriage of goods (trucks): having a maximum mass not exceeding 3.5 tonnes (7,700 lb) N1: having a maximum mass exceeding 3.5 tonnes but not exceeding 12 tonnes (26,000 lb) N2: having a maximum mass exceeding 12 tonnes N3: EU GENERAL CLASSIFICATION OF VEHICLE CATEGORIES
  17. 17. Japan North America EU China e-Kei Neighborhood Electric Car Light Quadricycle (L6e) Rural Vehicle Golf Car Heavy Quadricycle (L7e) LSEV Personal Transportation (PTV 20 mph) (LSV: 25mph) PTV is state, LSV is federal LSV will be universal, Growth in personal transportation vehicles, errands, double digit growth NOMENCLATURE
  18. 18. 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 CHINA EU E QUAD US JAPAN(I-MIEV) ROW MARKET HISTORY
  19. 19. Gordon Murray T.25 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 China RoW 10% of Heavy Car Market RoW 15% of Heavy Car Market China 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 FORECAST
  20. 20. T.25 Length 2.4 m Width 1.3 m Height 1.6 m Curb weight 575 kg BMW I3 4 m 1.8 m 1.6 m 1,195 kg (60Ah) TESL A S 5 m 2 m 1.4 m 2,200 kg (90D) 0 5 10 15 20 25 T.25 i3 Tesla Weight x100 kg Volume cubic meters T.25 Scale: 1m
  21. 21. T.25 Width of US traffic lane (3.7m) T.25
  22. 22. PARKING
  23. 23. COST OF BATTERY PACK Estimated Costs for Automotive Lithium Batteries (Pack)$/kWh $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 $900 $950 $1,000 $1,050 $1,100 $1,150 $1,200 $1,250 $1,300 $1,350 $1,400 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 LG Chem 2017 Daimler 2016 Carnegie Mellon University 2016 Cairn Energy Research Advisors 2016 Nat. Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) 2016 Panasonic 2016 Tesla 2016 MIT (Sadoway) 2016 Ford (cell) 2016 Tesla 2015 GM 2015 MIT (Industry expert interviews) 2015 Stockholm Environment Institute 2015 Johnson Matthey 2015 Argonne National Lab 2015 Tesla 2014 US Dept. of Energy 2014 MIT (Sakti et al.) 2014 Umicore 2014 Australian Renewable Energy Agency 2014 Advanced Automotive Batteries 2014 VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland 2014 USABC (Industry) 2013 Argonne National Lab 2013 Johnson Matthey 2012 LG Chemical 2010 Average Power Curve fit
  24. 24. NEW PRODUCTION SYSTEM
  25. 25. A NEW PLANT ARCHITECTURE BODY PAINT ASSEMBLY 100K UNITS/YR. MIN. $300 MILLION CAPEX TRANSFER PRESSES WELDING ROBOTS WASH PAINT ROBOTS OVENS POWER TOOLS ROBOTS 20K UNITS/YR. $50 MILLION CAPEX CURRENT RIDE STREAM $50 MILLION PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT $10 MILLION DEVELOPMENT MERGE PANELS INJECTION MOULDING POWER TOOLS CHASSIS TUBE BENDING & WELDING
  26. 26. CURRENT ISTREAM TOOLING
  27. 27. PROCESS FLOW PAINT SHOP 1. Detergent wash 2. Degrease 3. Rinse 4. Conditioning Rinse 5. Phosphate treatment 6. Dip Rinse 7. Demineralized water Spray 8. Electrophoresis 9. Spray rinse 10. Bake 11. Joint Seal 12. Underseal 13. Stone Chip Primer 14. Primer Surface 15. Bake 16. Top Coat 17. Bake 18. Wax Injection NO LONGER NEEDED
  28. 28. FACTORY BENEFITS • Metal presses replaced with tools for bending, welding • 20% the size of a conventional factory • Capital investment reduced by 80% • Operating expenses reduced by lower energy requirements • Reduced space requirements • Lower real estate costs • Location flexibility • Closer to market • Reduced transportation costs
  29. 29. A NEW BUSINESS ARCHITECTURE • Modular assembly and value chain • Separate frame and panel plants • Separate assembly plants • Re-defined sales and service economics • Local component supply ecosystem • Brand creation benefits

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