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Sanedi energy and_mobility_the_bus_unido_sustainable_transport_and_mobility_for_cities_workshop_carel_snyman_20170330

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The United Nations Industrial Development Organization's Low Carbon Transport Project hosted a workshop seminar on sustainable transport and mobility for cities in Durban on the 30th of March 2017. This workshop was presented with the aim of highlighting the benefits of using electrified mobility powered by renewable energy. The objectives of the workshop included: Enlightening members of the sustainable transport fraternity in South Africa; sharing the current policy developments for sustainable transport use and operations; discussing the environmental benefits of including electric vehicles in South Africa’s transportation modal mix; offering insights to the various types of transport modes available and those suitable for city commuting and public services; proposing methods to include green vehicles into local government fleets; discussing the possibilities of converting a fleet to electric drive vehicles through other initiatives; demonstrating macroeconomic factors to better understand how the introduction of electrified transport modes could add value to the economy of the city and South Africa at large.

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Sanedi energy and_mobility_the_bus_unido_sustainable_transport_and_mobility_for_cities_workshop_carel_snyman_20170330

  1. 1. Energy & Mobility The Bus SANEDI: Cleaner Mobility Carel Snyman 0824406669 carels@sanedi.org.za
  2. 2. SANEDI: Cleaner Mobility Programme To find sustainable energy solutions Considering: – the energy used and – the technologies applied to do work - moving people and freight Sustainable means not burning stuff to do work • move away from paying forex for imported energy • reduce energy consumption and emissions like CO2 • develop local energy supply • stimulating local industrial development • job creation
  3. 3. A Tale of Two Cities Durban today Durban in the future – “as usual” – Sad City – “innovation” - Smart City
  4. 4. Estimated Population Growth SA City 2015 2030 (%) Rustenburg 383 000 544 00 42% Witbank 371 000 512 000 38% Pretoria 2 059 000 2 701 000 31% East London 319 000 397 000 24% Bloemfontein 503 000 623 000 24% Johannesburg 9 399 000 11 573 000 23% Soshanguve 775 000 935 000 21% Pietermaritzburg 495 000 588 000 19% Vereeniging 1 155 000 1 370 000 19% Cape Town 3 660 000 4 322 000 18% Port Elizabeth 1 179 000 1 390 000 18% Durban 2 901 000 3 349 000 15%
  5. 5. Urbanisation Durban: 2017 – 2,9M people 2030 – 3,3M people of the developing and developed world respectively, will be urbanized by 2050. 60 and 90%
  6. 6. Energy in the City Transport: 60% total energy = 136 million GJ Thereof: 55% is road transport ENERGY SCENARIOS FOR ETHEKWINI (2010): Exploring the implications of different energy futures for eThekwini up to 2040 eThekwini energy demand by sector (2010) Residential 12% Commerce 10% Industry 16%Transport 60% Elec Losses 1%Local Govt 1%
  7. 7. Emissions in the CityeThekwini 2010 greenhouse gas emissions by sector (2010) Residential 19% Commerce 16% Industry 26% Transport 34% Elec Losses 3% Local Govt 2%
  8. 8. Business as Usual – eThekwini Transport Industry Commerce Residential Industrial Commercial Residential Residential Commerce Industry Transport Local Govt Elec Losses Energy Demand (PJ) Scenario: Business As Usual 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Petajoules 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20
  9. 9. Business as Usual – eThekwini Residential Commerce Industry Transport Local Govt Elec Losses Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Allocated to Demands) Business As Usual 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 MetricMegatonnesCO2Equivalent 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2
  10. 10. Business as Usual – eThekwini
  11. 11. Energy Demand (PJ) All Fuels Business As Usual Densification Energy & Transport Efficiency & PV 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Petajoules 220 200 180 160 140 Choices: Tweaking or Innovation? % ENERGY SAVED IN TRANSPORT SECTOR BY 2030 • 8% increase in public transport pass-km • Private vehicles Diesel: 50% Diesel efficient: 5% Petrol: 35% Petrol efficient: 5% Electric: 3% Hybrid: 2% • Half of all bus passenger-km by BRT • All minibuses diesel • Increase vehicle occupancy to 2.0 17%
  12. 12. Let us analyse Current situation? Energy – imported, dirty, costly, waste Tools – inefficient, oversized, waste, kills Integration – competing, not connected, takes longer Options? Fit for purpose: size + application Electric – most efficient Renewable - sustainable Connected – integrated, shared Autonomous - safe
  13. 13. Measures of transportation work Work = People x kilometres = P.km P.km/MJoule - Efficiency P.km/CO2 - Carbon Emissions P.km/Rand - Cost (Forex) P.km/Hour - Time P.km/m2 - Space
  14. 14. We use energy to do work: Food - 12 MJ/day (3000 kCal) To walk - 0,25 MJ/P.km To cycle - 0,11 MJ/P.km or < 0,08(electric) MJ/P.km To drive - 3,20(petrol) MJ/P.km or 0,54(electric) MJ/P.km To ride - 0,4(eBus) MJ/P.km or 0,2(Train) MJ/P.km Or if you right size – 0,2(electric) MJ/P.km in a small commuter and And go on rail – 0,1(RE electric) MJ/P.km in a light PRT system . . . . .
  15. 15. Where do energy come from? Solar Wind Biomass Tides Gas Oil Coal
  16. 16. P e r s p e c t i v e TW.yrs
  17. 17. Consider the SUN PV(in SA): 3MJ /sqm/day How far can I go on only solar PV energy?
  18. 18. PV(in SA): 3MJ /sqm/day Consider the SUN How far can I go on only solar PV energy? PV(in SA): 3MJ /sqm/day eBike 38 P.km eScooter 25 P.km Train 14 P.km 3 Wheeler 14 P.km Bus 8 P.km 4 Wheeler 9 P.km Nissan Leaf 4 P.km
  19. 19. Consumption and production of fuel
  20. 20. 1 GDP in Rand R:$ Exchange rate GDP in $
  21. 21. South Africa’s Energy Demand (%) Economic Sector 2010 2050 Industry 37 34 Mining 8 4 Agriculture 3 3 Commerce 7 7 Residential 11 8 Transport 34 44
  22. 22. The Car Top speed 170km/h 0-100 in 8 seconds Range of 600km Petrol 8L/100km Mass: 2’000kg 40kgCO2/100km Limit = 60km/h Need only 150km Need only 14s 400kg can do
  23. 23. Cost, Energy and Pollution For 100km: Petrol Car Price/Unit R 12,00 Units 10 litres Energy 320 MJ Cost R 120,00 Electric Car Normal R 1,33 15 kWh 54 MJ R 20,00 GWP 25kg 0 0 7-50kg 39kg 19kg45kg 39kg 13kg 80c R4,00 Off-peak & Small Car 5 kWh 27 MJ
  24. 24. So: Let’s look at the BUS
  25. 25. The India experience “As much as 25 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission can be cut every year for every diesel bus replaced by an electric bus”, said the IISC study, conducted by Sheela Ramasesha and her group at the Divecha Centre for Climate Change in Bangalore. Electric buses emit no CO2, but the electricity needed for their charging stations comes primarily from coal-fired power plants, India’s primary energy source. However, if solar panels are set up at battery charging stations of electric buses, the annual 25 tonnes of CO2emission per bus can be further reduced. Put another way, if 150,000 diesel buses were to be replaced by electric buses, 3.7 million tonnes of CO2 emissions could be saved. Apart from reducing outdoor air pollution—which kills 670,000 people in India every year, according to this Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad paper—a clean bus system would aid national carbon-reduction targets. Transport accounts for a tenth of India’s greenhouse gas emissions, as we reported here, with a 2009 study attributing 95% of these emissions to road transport.
  26. 26. Maintenance cost comparison Outside of the cost of the replacement battery, the average annual electric bus maintenance cost was calculated to be $1,770, a significant savings compared to the calculated annual diesel bus maintenance cost, $8,850
  27. 27. Bus energy consumption
  28. 28. Bus CO2 emissions
  29. 29. Major suppliers of electric buses
  30. 30. Thank you for your attention! Any questions? Carel Snyman +27 11 083 4305 carels@sanedi.org.za
  31. 31. EVs and batteries
  32. 32. Road: Modes & energy performance Mode Energy Number % Load Capacity Unit /100km MJ/P.km MJ/T.km gCO2/P.km gCO2/T.km Car Petrol 4'455'038 57% 1.4 9.0 2.19 153.77 Diesel 184'407 2% 1.4 7.0 1.90 119.60 SUV Petrol 442'621 6% 1.4 14.0 3.40 239.20 Diesel 279'222 4% 1.4 11.0 2.99 187.94 LCV Petrol 1'103'608 14% 0.5 13.0 8.84 621.92 Diesel 700'265 9% 0.5 10.0 7.60 478.40 MCV Petrol 5'991 0.1% 2.5 33.0 4.49 315.74 Diesel 131'425 2% 2.5 25.7 3.90 245.58 HCV Diesel 198'134 3% 15 38.0 0.96 60.60 MBTaxi Petrol 260'577 3% 14 15.0 0.36 25.63 Diesel 13'976 0.2% 14 11.7 0.32 19.93 Bus Diesel 30'033 0.4% 25 33.0 0.50 31.57
  33. 33. Road: Modes & Energy Impacts Mode Energy Number % Vkm/ year MP.km MT.km Mlitre GJ % GJ MTon CO2 Car Petrol 4'455'038 57% 24'000 149'689 9'623 327 35% 23.02 Diesel 184'407 2% 24'000 6'196 310 12 1% 0.74 SUV Petrol 442'621 6% 24'000 14'872 1'487 51 5% 3.56 Diesel 279'222 4% 24'000 9'382 737 28 3% 1.76 LCV Petrol 1'103'608 14% 25'000 13'795 3'587 122 13% 8.58 Diesel 700'265 9% 25'000 8'753 1'751 67 7% 4.19 MCV Petrol 5'991 0.1% 45'000 674 89 3 0.3% 0.21 Diesel 131'425 2% 25'000 8'214 843 32 3% 2.02 HCV Diesel 198'134 3% 70'500 209'527 5'308 202 22% 12.70 MBTaxi Petrol 260'577 3% 50'000 182'404 1'954 66 7% 4.67 Diesel 13'976 0.2% 50'000 9'783 82 3 0.3% 0.20 Bus Diesel 30'033 0.4% 40'000 30'033 396 15 2% 0.95
  34. 34. Well to Wheel GHG emissions in gCO2eq./km
  35. 35. Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday The electricity supply challenge:
  36. 36. Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday 38 GWh That is enough for 6 million Electric Cars Turning Challenge into SOLUTION

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