Europe is facing multiple challenges from within and outside its borders that are impacting its economic outlook. However, the region has made significant economic progress over the past year. Many economies that were hardest hit by the sovereign debt crisis like Ireland and Spain are seeing robust growth, while the EU and eurozone as a whole posted acceleration in GDP growth in 2014. Business confidence in Europe has also risen above global levels for the first time in years due to improved growth prospects and ECB action. Nonetheless, high unemployment, debt burdens, and geopolitical tensions continue to pose threats to European stability and growth.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
This report outlines the global macroeconomic trends that are expected to impact businesses over the next five years. Valuable insight includes the challenges of the post-recession recovery, as well as the risks and opportunities facing businesses in established and emerging regional economies.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
This report outlines the global macroeconomic trends that are expected to impact businesses over the next five years. Valuable insight includes the challenges of the post-recession recovery, as well as the risks and opportunities facing businesses in established and emerging regional economies.
Global growth is moderatng as the recovery in trade
and manufacturing actvity loses steam. Despite
ongoing negotatons, trade tensions among major
economies remain elevated. These tensions, combined
with concerns about sofening global growth prospects, have weighed on investor sentment and contributed to
declines in global equity prices. Borrowing costs for
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
have increased, in part as major advanced-economy
central banks contnue to withdraw policy
accommodaton in varying degrees. A strengthening
U.S. dollar, heightened financial market volatlity, and
rising risk premiums have intensified capital outlow
and currency pressures in some large EMDEs, with
some vulnerable countries experiencing substantal
financial stress. Energy prices have fluctuated markedly,
mainly due to supply factors, with sharp falls toward
the end of 2018. Economic actvity in the Euro Area has
been somewhat weaker than previously expected,
owing to slowing net exports. EMDE growth edged
down to an estmated 4.2 percent in 2018 as a number
of countries with elevated current account deficits
experienced substantal financial market pressures and
appreciable slowdowns in actvity. In low-income
countries (LICs), growth is firming as infrastructure
investment contnues and easing drought conditons
support a rebound in agricultural output.
Political Risk Could Undermine the Global Recovery. Review Dun & Bradstreet's research on global trade and the political risks that could impair global economic outlook. Dun & Bradstreet partners with international finance departments, World Bank Governance Indicator publications, and other global economic outlook experts to create comprehensive fiscal world view.
1. Macro environment - Global growth slowing, particularly in Europe. UK growth expected to be 1.2% this year but Brexit risks loom large.
2. Momentum - business investment declining, household spending holding up on strong wage growth.
3. Operating costs – expected to rise due to tight labour market, wage growth close to a 11-year high. Commodity prices up 12.5% ytd.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite lowest since 2008, focus on cost reduction and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit cheap and easily available, pockets of debt risk in ‘cov-lite’ sectors, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
CA 2014 Mercedes-Benz C-Class | Mercedes-Benz Dealer Serving CoronaWalter's Automotive
The 2014 Mercedes-Benz C-Class is available at Walter’s Automotive, a leading Mercedes-Benz dealer serving Corona. Schedule a test-drive in the exciting 2014 Mercedes-Benz C250 Coupe today.
Pitfalls in alignment of observation models resolved using PROV as an upper o...Simon Cox
AGU Fall Meeting, 2015-12-16
A number of models for observation metadata have been developed in the earth and environmental science communities, including OGC’s Observations and Measurements (O&M), the ecosystems community’s Extensible Observation Ontology (OBOE), the W3C’s Semantic Sensor Network Ontology (SSNO), and the CUAHSI/NSF Observations Data Model v2 (ODM2). In order to combine data formalized in the various models, mappings between these must be developed. In some cases this is straightforward: since ODM2 took O&M as its starting point, their terminology is almost completely aligned. In the eco-informatics world observations are almost never made in isolation of other observations, so OBOE pays particular attention to groupings, with multiple atomic ‘Measurements’ in each oboe:Observation which does not have a result of its own and thus plays a different role to an om:Observation. And while SSN also adopted terminology from O&M, mapping is confounded by the fact that SSNO uses DOLCE as its foundation and places ssn:Observations as ‘Social Objects’ which are explicitly disjoint from ‘Events’, while O&M is formalized as part of the ISO/TC 211 harmonised (UML) model and sees om:Observations as value assignment activities.
Foundational ontologies (such as BFO, GFO, UFO or DOLCE) can provide a framework for alignment, but different upper ontologies can be based in profoundly different world-views and use of incommensurate frameworks can confound rather than help. A potential resolution is provided by comparing recent studies that align SSNO and O&M, respectively, with the PROV ontology. PROV provides just three base classes:
Entity, Activity and Agent. om:Observation is sub-classed
from prov:Activity, while ssn:Observation is sub-classed from prov:Entity. This confirms that, despite the same name, om:Observation and ssn:Observation denote different aspects of the observation process: the observation event, and the record of the observation event, respectively.
Alignment with the simple PROV classes has clarified this issue in a way that had previously proved difficult to resolve. The simple 3-class base model from PROV appears to provide just enough logic to serve as a lightweight upper ontology, particularly for workflow or process-based information.
Global growth is moderatng as the recovery in trade
and manufacturing actvity loses steam. Despite
ongoing negotatons, trade tensions among major
economies remain elevated. These tensions, combined
with concerns about sofening global growth prospects, have weighed on investor sentment and contributed to
declines in global equity prices. Borrowing costs for
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
have increased, in part as major advanced-economy
central banks contnue to withdraw policy
accommodaton in varying degrees. A strengthening
U.S. dollar, heightened financial market volatlity, and
rising risk premiums have intensified capital outlow
and currency pressures in some large EMDEs, with
some vulnerable countries experiencing substantal
financial stress. Energy prices have fluctuated markedly,
mainly due to supply factors, with sharp falls toward
the end of 2018. Economic actvity in the Euro Area has
been somewhat weaker than previously expected,
owing to slowing net exports. EMDE growth edged
down to an estmated 4.2 percent in 2018 as a number
of countries with elevated current account deficits
experienced substantal financial market pressures and
appreciable slowdowns in actvity. In low-income
countries (LICs), growth is firming as infrastructure
investment contnues and easing drought conditons
support a rebound in agricultural output.
Political Risk Could Undermine the Global Recovery. Review Dun & Bradstreet's research on global trade and the political risks that could impair global economic outlook. Dun & Bradstreet partners with international finance departments, World Bank Governance Indicator publications, and other global economic outlook experts to create comprehensive fiscal world view.
1. Macro environment - Global growth slowing, particularly in Europe. UK growth expected to be 1.2% this year but Brexit risks loom large.
2. Momentum - business investment declining, household spending holding up on strong wage growth.
3. Operating costs – expected to rise due to tight labour market, wage growth close to a 11-year high. Commodity prices up 12.5% ytd.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite lowest since 2008, focus on cost reduction and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit cheap and easily available, pockets of debt risk in ‘cov-lite’ sectors, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
CA 2014 Mercedes-Benz C-Class | Mercedes-Benz Dealer Serving CoronaWalter's Automotive
The 2014 Mercedes-Benz C-Class is available at Walter’s Automotive, a leading Mercedes-Benz dealer serving Corona. Schedule a test-drive in the exciting 2014 Mercedes-Benz C250 Coupe today.
Pitfalls in alignment of observation models resolved using PROV as an upper o...Simon Cox
AGU Fall Meeting, 2015-12-16
A number of models for observation metadata have been developed in the earth and environmental science communities, including OGC’s Observations and Measurements (O&M), the ecosystems community’s Extensible Observation Ontology (OBOE), the W3C’s Semantic Sensor Network Ontology (SSNO), and the CUAHSI/NSF Observations Data Model v2 (ODM2). In order to combine data formalized in the various models, mappings between these must be developed. In some cases this is straightforward: since ODM2 took O&M as its starting point, their terminology is almost completely aligned. In the eco-informatics world observations are almost never made in isolation of other observations, so OBOE pays particular attention to groupings, with multiple atomic ‘Measurements’ in each oboe:Observation which does not have a result of its own and thus plays a different role to an om:Observation. And while SSN also adopted terminology from O&M, mapping is confounded by the fact that SSNO uses DOLCE as its foundation and places ssn:Observations as ‘Social Objects’ which are explicitly disjoint from ‘Events’, while O&M is formalized as part of the ISO/TC 211 harmonised (UML) model and sees om:Observations as value assignment activities.
Foundational ontologies (such as BFO, GFO, UFO or DOLCE) can provide a framework for alignment, but different upper ontologies can be based in profoundly different world-views and use of incommensurate frameworks can confound rather than help. A potential resolution is provided by comparing recent studies that align SSNO and O&M, respectively, with the PROV ontology. PROV provides just three base classes:
Entity, Activity and Agent. om:Observation is sub-classed
from prov:Activity, while ssn:Observation is sub-classed from prov:Entity. This confirms that, despite the same name, om:Observation and ssn:Observation denote different aspects of the observation process: the observation event, and the record of the observation event, respectively.
Alignment with the simple PROV classes has clarified this issue in a way that had previously proved difficult to resolve. The simple 3-class base model from PROV appears to provide just enough logic to serve as a lightweight upper ontology, particularly for workflow or process-based information.
The 2014 Mercedes-Benz SL-Class is available at Walter’s Automotive, a trusted Mercedes-Benz dealer serving Corona. Schedule a test-drive in this thrilling roadster today.
In Sales, its important to give your best remarkable impression to your customer which will pull them to you and remind them on your approach, presentation, gestures, offer... etc.
That is an impact!!
This report draws on over 10,000 interviews with business leaders as well as economic forecast data to better understand the growth opportunities and challenges facing dynamic companies over the next 12 months.
In the first of a series of reports commissioned by HSBC, we consider the macroeconomic situation in Europe, prospects for growth and the strengths of the continent's economy
Cuál sería el impacto de una hipotética salida de Grecia del euro? La respuesta es que, de darse este caso, sus efectos en la economía de la eurozona no serían excesivos
This monthly briefing highlights that global manufacturing production has improved. Economic recovery is slowly strengthening in developed economies; and public fiscal stimulus programmes have been a determinant factor in economic growth in many developing countries.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/index.shtml
De acuerdo con el último informe difundido por Crédito y Caución, las insolvencias de muchas de las economías europeas se mantendrán muy por encima de los niveles de 2007 en 2014 y 2015.
El panorama económico mundial se ha deteriorado en los últimos seis meses. El ritmo de crecimiento en la zona euro y China ha sido más débil de lo esperado y la intensificación de la crisis geopolíticas referentes a Rusia y al Estado Islámico en Oriente Medio han minado la confianza internacional.
Inspirational presentation from Nick Parsons,Head of Research, UK and Europe and Global Head FX Strategy | Wholesale Banking | National Australia Bank Limited
Global growth continues to remain tepid. In US, new data releases are pointing towards a mild recovery, but not compelling enough to force the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy stance. Labour market is recovering slowly and unemployment rate has continued to decline. On the domestic front, inflation has continued to remain subdued. Given the downward trajectory of inflation and limited upside risks in the wake of benign global commodity prices, the Central Bank chose to cut interest rates by 50 bps in end-September 2015.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the growth prospects of Euro Area economies and US economy, in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, data trends in IIP, inflation, trade and monetary policy are analysed. Corporate Performance section analyses the corporate results for 1QFY16. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on ‘Make in India and the Potential for Job Creation’. In Focus of the Month, the important issue of ‘Financial Inclusion’ has been covered.
Swedbank's Global Economic Outlook, 2010 AugustSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Signature content of MTBiz is its Article of the Month (AoM), as depicted on Cover Page of each issue, with featured focus on different issues that fall into the wide definition of Market, Business, Organization and Leadership. The AoM also covers areas on Innovation, Central Banking, Monetary Policy, National Budget, Economic Depression or Growth and Capital Market. Scale of coverage of the AoM both, global and local subject to each issue.
MTBiz is a monthly Market Review produced and distributed by Group R&D, MTB since 2009.
OECD, 35th Meeting of Senior Budget Officials - Christian Kastrop - OECDOECD Governance
This presentation by Christian Kastrop, OECD, was made at the 35th Meeting of Senior Budget Officials held in Berlin on 12-13 June 2014. Find more information at http://www.oecd.org/gov/budgeting/35thannualmeetingofoecdseniorbudgetofficialssboberlingermany12-13june2014.htm
Companies are increasingly focused on high-quality strategic transactions, with less time spent on investigating peripheral opportunities, according to our annual tracker of business leader M&A intentions.
With momentum building towards the UN Climate Change Conference in Peru, new figures from IBR reveal that businesses leaders in emerging markets are more focused on the sustainability of their operations compared with peers in developed markets. In this short report Nathan Goode, global leader for energy & cleantech, calls for a change in the narrative around sustainability arguing that we need to start talking in language that resonates with businesses.
Investor calls for transparency and the rise of social media have thrust the impact businesses have on the economy, the environment and society more firmly into the spotlight. Drawing on more than 2,500 interviews with business leaders in 34 economies, Corporate Social Responsibility: beyond financials, looks at how companies are responding to this challenge; how they are making their operations more sustainable and what role they feel integrated reporting can play.
Tax management within multinational enterprises (MNEs) has never been more challenging. 'Getting to grips with the BEPS Action Plan' is the latest Grant Thornton report exploring the OECD’s planned overhaul of the international tax system, what it means for businesses and how they can prepare.
Many charities consider social media a key channel to deliver their communications and fundraising goals, although few incorporate it into their core strategy – a problem exacerbated by the social media knowledge gap at senior levels in charities worldwide.
Drawing on interviews with international charity leaders and Grant Thornton Not for Profit specialists, this report provides charity leaders with guidance on how they can enable their charity to take advantage of social media’s power to engage new communities and to thrive online.
Key findings
• Strategy: Organisational strategy should drive social media use, the board must help formulate this from a position of knowledge.
• Governance: The social media governance approach and guidelines should be shared with everyone in the organisation.
• Education and training: Formal education should be used at every level. Internal social networks can help people gain knowledge of social media.
• Risk: Social media non-engagement is a risk in itself, although costs must be weighed against benefits.
• Impact: It is vital to measure social media outcomes to justify investment; metrics should be linked to a strategic goal and monitored.
Read more here: bit.ly/1otFEJR
New research from the Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR) has found that Brazilian business enthusiasm for hosting the tournament has plummeted over the past two years. However, while few business leaders predict increased investment or increased profits as a result of Brazil hosting the competition, there is hope that infrastructure improvements and a greater influx of tourists will prove enduring legacies. For more information please visit http://bit.ly/1kZr9tB
This outsourcing report looks at the trends driving, and barriers to, outsourcing adoption in 45 economies across the globe.
Why and what functions are businesses outsourcing? What is preventing businesses from outsourcing? And how can these obstacles be overcome?
Companies are facing a proliferation of transfer pricing documentation demands. While the new requirements set out in the OECD’s Base Erosion Profit Shifting (BEPS) Action Plan will raise the bar still further, they could also provide the catalyst for the development of a more sustainable approach. http://bit.ly/1htg32Z
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a rapidly developing economy with an approximate population of 8 million. Its GDP was estimated at US$390bn in 2013, making it the 29th largest economy in the world and the second largest in the Middle East. Its GDP per capita is approximately US$43,000, the 19th highest globally.
This expatriate tax guide has been designed to provide an overview of the different tax systems around the globe and gives further information about tax systems and regulations in specific countries, http://bit.ly/1hkrB4r.
Organisations that send their greatest assets – their people – overseas to work can face certain tax burdens. Working overseas offers an opportunity for business and personal growth. However, employers have to make sure that remuneration is competitive and that tax, social security and pension issues associated with relocation are addressed.
Working with both companies and individuals and using our global network of specialists, we can advise on the pitfalls associated with working abroad and make sure that appropriate pre-assignment planning opportunities are implemented effectively to minimise the tax burden for both parties. Our tax specialists across the network work together on complex multi-jurisdictional issues to help employers to adopt a consistent and transparent approach to their expatriate assignments. This ensures that their employees are treated fairly and are clear about the terms of their relocation package.
24%: that is the proportion of women holding the most senior roles in businesses across the globe. We have been tracking this figure over the past decade and are sorry to report there has been no significant movement. In fact, this figure is exactly the same as 2007, 2009 and 2013, suggesting that women’s ascent up the corporate ladder has returned to its ‘natural level’ following the financial crisis, during which women were disproportionately hit.
Drawing on data and insight from the Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), the Grant Thornton Global Dynamism Index (GDI), the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this short report considers the outlook for
Latin America in 2014.
Business Valuation Principles for EntrepreneursBen Wann
This insightful presentation is designed to equip entrepreneurs with the essential knowledge and tools needed to accurately value their businesses. Understanding business valuation is crucial for making informed decisions, whether you're seeking investment, planning to sell, or simply want to gauge your company's worth.
Attending a job Interview for B1 and B2 Englsih learnersErika906060
It is a sample of an interview for a business english class for pre-intermediate and intermediate english students with emphasis on the speking ability.
Explore our most comprehensive guide on lookback analysis at SafePaaS, covering access governance and how it can transform modern ERP audits. Browse now!
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfSam H
At its core, generative artificial intelligence relies on the concept of generative models, which serve as engines that churn out entirely new data resembling their training data. It is like a sculptor who has studied so many forms found in nature and then uses this knowledge to create sculptures from his imagination that have never been seen before anywhere else. If taken to cyberspace, gans work almost the same way.
The world of search engine optimization (SEO) is buzzing with discussions after Google confirmed that around 2,500 leaked internal documents related to its Search feature are indeed authentic. The revelation has sparked significant concerns within the SEO community. The leaked documents were initially reported by SEO experts Rand Fishkin and Mike King, igniting widespread analysis and discourse. For More Info:- https://news.arihantwebtech.com/search-disrupted-googles-leaked-documents-rock-the-seo-world/
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...dylandmeas
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey through Full Sail University. Below, you’ll find a collection of my work showcasing my skills and expertise in digital marketing, event planning, and media production.
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...Kumar Satyam
According to TechSci Research report, “India Orthopedic Devices Market -Industry Size, Share, Trends, Competition Forecast & Opportunities, 2030”, the India Orthopedic Devices Market stood at USD 1,280.54 Million in 2024 and is anticipated to grow with a CAGR of 7.84% in the forecast period, 2026-2030F. The India Orthopedic Devices Market is being driven by several factors. The most prominent ones include an increase in the elderly population, who are more prone to orthopedic conditions such as osteoporosis and arthritis. Moreover, the rise in sports injuries and road accidents are also contributing to the demand for orthopedic devices. Advances in technology and the introduction of innovative implants and prosthetics have further propelled the market growth. Additionally, government initiatives aimed at improving healthcare infrastructure and the increasing prevalence of lifestyle diseases have led to an upward trend in orthopedic surgeries, thereby fueling the market demand for these devices.
What are the main advantages of using HR recruiter services.pdfHumanResourceDimensi1
HR recruiter services offer top talents to companies according to their specific needs. They handle all recruitment tasks from job posting to onboarding and help companies concentrate on their business growth. With their expertise and years of experience, they streamline the hiring process and save time and resources for the company.
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptxtanyjahb
A personal brand exploration presentation summarizes an individual's unique qualities and goals, covering strengths, values, passions, and target audience. It helps individuals understand what makes them stand out, their desired image, and how they aim to achieve it.
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Memorandum Of Association Constitution of Company.pptseri bangash
www.seribangash.com
A Memorandum of Association (MOA) is a legal document that outlines the fundamental principles and objectives upon which a company operates. It serves as the company's charter or constitution and defines the scope of its activities. Here's a detailed note on the MOA:
Contents of Memorandum of Association:
Name Clause: This clause states the name of the company, which should end with words like "Limited" or "Ltd." for a public limited company and "Private Limited" or "Pvt. Ltd." for a private limited company.
https://seribangash.com/article-of-association-is-legal-doc-of-company/
Registered Office Clause: It specifies the location where the company's registered office is situated. This office is where all official communications and notices are sent.
Objective Clause: This clause delineates the main objectives for which the company is formed. It's important to define these objectives clearly, as the company cannot undertake activities beyond those mentioned in this clause.
www.seribangash.com
Liability Clause: It outlines the extent of liability of the company's members. In the case of companies limited by shares, the liability of members is limited to the amount unpaid on their shares. For companies limited by guarantee, members' liability is limited to the amount they undertake to contribute if the company is wound up.
https://seribangash.com/promotors-is-person-conceived-formation-company/
Capital Clause: This clause specifies the authorized capital of the company, i.e., the maximum amount of share capital the company is authorized to issue. It also mentions the division of this capital into shares and their respective nominal value.
Association Clause: It simply states that the subscribers wish to form a company and agree to become members of it, in accordance with the terms of the MOA.
Importance of Memorandum of Association:
Legal Requirement: The MOA is a legal requirement for the formation of a company. It must be filed with the Registrar of Companies during the incorporation process.
Constitutional Document: It serves as the company's constitutional document, defining its scope, powers, and limitations.
Protection of Members: It protects the interests of the company's members by clearly defining the objectives and limiting their liability.
External Communication: It provides clarity to external parties, such as investors, creditors, and regulatory authorities, regarding the company's objectives and powers.
https://seribangash.com/difference-public-and-private-company-law/
Binding Authority: The company and its members are bound by the provisions of the MOA. Any action taken beyond its scope may be considered ultra vires (beyond the powers) of the company and therefore void.
Amendment of MOA:
While the MOA lays down the company's fundamental principles, it is not entirely immutable. It can be amended, but only under specific circumstances and in compliance with legal procedures. Amendments typically require shareholder
Taurus Zodiac Sign_ Personality Traits and Sign Dates.pptxmy Pandit
Explore the world of the Taurus zodiac sign. Learn about their stability, determination, and appreciation for beauty. Discover how Taureans' grounded nature and hardworking mindset define their unique personality.
1. The future of Europe
Grant Thornton International Business Report 2015
2. 23%LOW GROWTH
24%NATIONALIST
POLITICAL PARTIES
25%HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
30%HIGH LEVELS
OF NATIONAL DEBT
23%LOW GROWTH
24%NATIONALIST
POLITICAL PARTIES
25%HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
30%HIGH LEVELS
OF NATIONAL DEBT
23%LOW GROWTH
24%NATIONALIST
POLITICAL PARTIES
25%HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
30%HIGH LEVELS
OF NATIONAL DEBT
24%NATIONALIS
POLITICAL PARTIE
25%HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
23%LOW GROWTH
24%NATIONALIST
POLITICAL PARTIES
25%HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
30%HIGH LEVELS
OF NATIONAL DEBT
1.4% 0.9%
1.8% 1.5%
-0.5%
1%29% 38%11% 18% 34%
0.1%
84% 72%45% 64%
The future of Europe 2015
Executive summary
• growth prospects have improved significantly over recent months,
but remain subdued by pre-crisis standards
• some of the economies worst affected by the sovereign debt crisis,
such as Ireland and Spain, are now growing robustly
• high unemployment and low growth are cited as the biggest
threats to stability inside the eurozone, while other EU economies
are more concerned with high debt and the rise of populist parties
• the proportion of business leaders wanting to leave the euro has halved
to just 5% over the past 12 months
• nine in ten eurozone business leaders want to see further EU integration,
compared with just one in two of those outside the single currency
• some northern European economies are less keen on further EU
integration compared with this time last year
• business leaders are more worried about the impact of the UK leaving
the EU, than of Greece leaving the eurozone.
EU Eurozone
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
2015
Recovery: gaining momentum The future: still uncertain
• debt levels remain high, especially in Greece and Italy,
but are forecast to fall
• unemployment rates are still very high in southern Europe,
with more than half of young people out of work in Greece
and Spain
• business growth prospects have steadily improved due to
greater economic certainty and ECB action
• regional economic optimism has climbed above the global
average for the first time in almost four years.
EurozoneEU
Real GDP growth (%)
Net business optimism (%)
Businesses more worried by Brexit than Grexit
Greek exit (from eurozone) UK exit (from EU)
Eurozone EurozoneGreece UK
3. European leaders could be forgiven for feeling they are being besieged from all angles.
From the East, tensions with Russia over Ukraine have echoes of the Cold War, dampening
business growth hopes in neighbouring economies and highlighting reliance on Russian
natural resources.
Foreword
The future of Europe 2015
From the North, the UK may seek treaty
changes ahead of an in-out referendum on
EU membership in 2017 which now looks
certain to go ahead following the election
result earlier this month.
From the West, relations with the
United States have become somewhat
strained due to US spying allegations,
declining EU military spending and
disagreements around the Transatlantic
Trade and Investment Partnership.
And from the South, Greece is taking a
combative stance to debt negotiations and
thousands of migrants from the war-torn
Middle East and North Africa are seeking
a new life within EU borders. Meanwhile,
at the heart of Europe itself, populist
parties, many of them virulently anti-EU,
are gaining ground. In Denmark, France
and the UK such parties came first in last
year’s EU parliament elections, and third
in Austria, Finland and Greece.
However, as the Future of Europe 2015
explains, these (largely) political problems
should not mask the serious economic
progress made over the past 12 months.
The EU economy posted growth of 1.4%,
not spectacular by historical standards,
but a significant improvement from 2013.
Having contracted, on an annual basis,
for two years in a row, the eurozone grew
by 0.9% last year. And both regions are
expected to accelerate in 2015. The euro
has fallen sharply against the dollar, but
this benefits exporting businesses, and
should boost inflation which is still
running close to zero.
These improving growth prospects,
alongside greater economic certainty and
the decision by the European Central
Bank (ECB) to launch a programme of
quantitative easing have all helped create a
much more fertile environment for
business growth. Regional business
optimism is higher than the global average
for the first time in close to four years
according to our International Business
Report and many of the economies
which required bailouts at the height of
the crisis, such as Ireland and Spain, are
now firmly back on track.
Clearly Europe is still grappling with a
number of challenges from the threat of
deflation and still-high debt to high
unemployment and the rise of populist
parties. But there is a growing sense that
the economy has turned a corner, strong
enough to deal with Greece exiting the
single currency should negotiations break
down irrevocably (although I remain
hopeful a solution will be found ahead of
our global conference in Athens later this
year) and ready again to take a lead in
global development and innovation.
Ed Nusbaum
Global CEO, Grant Thornton
3
Europe is facing multiple challenges,
at home and from abroad.
Europe has made significant
economic progress despite
multiple challenges.
4. 0.8
2.3
-3.8
2.0
-1.0
-0.1
2.4
0.6
4.7
3.4
1.6
0.4
1.4
1.6
1.2
2.5
0.8
2.5
2.7
2.7
3.9
2.1
2.1
0.9
2.9
3.3
2.9
2.6
4.8
2.5
1.6
3.5
3.1
2.8
0.4
0.5
4 The future of Europe
The future of Europe 2015
Economic growth
Despite a number of regional challenges, many of which remain unresolved, the European Union (EU) grew by 1.4%
in 2014, up from 0.1% in 2013. The eurozone posted an even sharper turnaround, with real GDP increasing by 0.9%
last year compared with a contraction of 0.5% over the previous 12 month period. In 2015, the region is expected to
accelerate further with the EU (1.7%) forecast to expand slightly faster than the eurozone (1.3%).
The recovery: gathering momentum
Some of the economies worst affected
by the regional slowdown are gathering
momentum. Ireland was the standout
performer over the past 12 months,
posting GDP growth of 4.8%, driven
by a 12.6% increase in exports, although
growth is expected to moderate to 3.9%
this year as overseas sales slow. Spain
also returned to growth after three
consecutive years of annual contraction.
Its economy expanded by 1.4% in 2014,
accelerating to a forecast 2.5% in 2015
as export growth picks up to 6.3%. Even
Greece’s economy expanded in 2014
(0.8%) after six consecutive years of
negative growth, although its outlook
is clouded by ongoing debt negotiations.
By contrast, the last 12 months have
been something of a struggle for the
eurozone’s three largest economies.
Germany grew by 1.6% in 2014, up
from 0.2% in 2013, but a sharp
moderation from 2010-11 (3.8%),
and the forecast is for more of the same
this year. France remains stuck in the
doldrums with growth creeping along
at 0.4% for the past three years, although
it is expected to accelerate to 1.2% this
year. The Italian economy contracted in
2014 (-0.4%), although less severely than
in the previous two years, and is forecast
to post mild growth this year (0.5%).
Some of the larger regional economies
outside the single currency have much
healthier growth prospects. Poland
close to doubled its growth rate in 2014
(3.3%) from the previous year, despite
the impact of the slowdown in Russia,
and is forecast to expand even faster in
2015 (3.5%). The UK economy grew
by a robust 2.6% in 2014, the third
consecutive year growth has accelerated
and the forecast for 2015 is similarly
healthy (2.7%). Growth in Sweden
is expected to quicken from 2.1%
in 2014 to 2.7% this year.
Source: IMF 2015
Real GDP growth (%)
Sweden
Estonia
Turkey
Italy
Latvia
Netherlands
Lithuania
Poland
2014
2015
UK
Ireland
Germany
France
Spain
Finland
Russia
Georgia
Armenia
Greece
5. 102
87
84
86
72
81
75
65
68
50
34
22
37
32
25
-21
-45
-30
-15
174
122
110
The future of Europe 5
Deflation Debt
However, the falling inflation rate has
largely been driven by the global oil price
fall (core annual inflation - which excludes
energy and food prices - remains at 0.6%).
As the purchase of these staples cannot
be easily substituted or delayed, the
main effect has actually been to increase
business and consumer spending
power, bolstering the recovery.
The threat of deflation did
however cause the ECB to finally
start a quantitative easing (QE)
But nowhere is their influence as evident
as Greece, where the ruling Syriza party
came to power vowing to rewrite the
terms of its bailout, although Syriza has
not found European finance ministers as
accommodating as it hoped despite Greek
public debt totalling 175% of GDP. This is
supposed to steadily decline (under the
agreed bailout conditions) but will likely
still be significantly above 100% by the
programme, similar to those employed
by the Federal Reserve and the Bank
of England. Aside from trying to raise
inflation back towards its ‘close to 2%’
mandate, the cash injection is aiming to
stimulate the region’s economy by buying
up to 60 billion euros of bonds each
month until late 2016. Interestingly,
the introduction of QE is supported
by just 56% of eurozone business leaders,
ranging from 90% in Greece to 35%
in Germany.
end of the decade. In Italy too public
debt is forecast to remain above total
annual GDP in 2020.
While other countries are making
progress in lowering their debt piles,
France, Ireland and Spain are forecast to
owe an amount considered ‘excessive’
(ie greater than 60% of GDP) under
the terms of the Stability and Growth
Pact five years from now.
The future of Europe 2015
The deflation-fuelled slowdown in 1990s Japan offers a sobering
lesson for European policymakers. When the regional inflation
rate turned negative at the beginning of the year, many economists
feared a negative spiral where consumer spending would be
delayed in the expectation of cheaper prices and business spending
constrained by the higher real burden of loans.
Anti-austerity parties, from Podemos in Spain to the SNP
in Scotland, have become increasingly popular and vocal
over recent months.
Source: IMF 2015
General government net debt (% GDP, selected economies)
100%
Greece
Italy
France
Ireland
UK
Spain
Germany
Netherlands
Poland
Sweden
Finland
Labour market
An estimated 11.3% of people in the
eurozone are out of work, although
this had edged down from over 12%
in mid-2013. The EU figure dipped
below 10% in early 2015 for the first
time since the end of 2011.
Germany (4.8%) has the lowest
proportion of its workforce unemployed
across the region, closely followed by
the UK (5.5%). Greece (26.0%) and
Spain (23.2 %) still have the highest rates
- driven by the 50%+ of young people
looking for work. Italy (42.6 %) also has
a severe youth unemployment problem.
Businesses are undoubtedly cautious about taking on new people
permanently with the recovery so fragile and unemployment is
still running well into double figures in the eurozone despite
recent economic progress.
2014 2020
6. Baltics
31
-14
1
15
30
9
-8
12
6
6
-12
-15
-17
-18
44
12
-36
26
24
6
4
-5
-6
-12
-15
-32
12
-15
6 The future of Europe
The future of Europe 2015
Business leader confidence has picked up over recent months as growth prospects improved across the region.
In the first quarter of 2015, business optimism in both the eurozone (34%) and the wider EU (38%) climbed
above the global average (33%) for the first time in almost four years. And across Europe, greater certainty
means businesses are planning to add jobs (31% plan to hire people in 2015, the highest since the fourth quarter
of 2010) which should lower high unemployment rates.
However, business leaders remain
cautious, acutely aware of a series of
false dawns since the sovereign debt
crisis. Indeed, business optimism across
the region stood marginally higher than
it does today in the second quarter of
last year. The difference this time, as
discussed above, is that this rise in
confidence is running in parallel not
only to action undertaken by the ECB,
but also to the Greek debt negotiations.
Tellingly, the last time the danger of
Greece leaving the single currency
was perceived to be this high, business
confidence in the eurozone slumped
to -22%.
Austerity working?
Ireland is the most obvious example:
at 92% it has the highest level of business
optimism in the world; 66% expect to see
profits rise over the next 12 months, up
from 61% on average in 2014 and 37%
in 2013; and just 18% are struggling
with low demand, well below the
global average (27%).
Spain has also seen a dramatic
improvement with 52% of businesses
optimistic in the economic outlook,
Business communities in some of the regional economies
that suffered the steepest downturns, are leading the charge.
compared with just 15% this time last
year, while 32% of businesses expect
to add jobs over the next 12 months,
compared with 19% on average in 2014.
The situation in Greece is somewhat
more fluid: business optimism climbed to
34% in the second quarter of 2014 as the
economy improved but business leaders
were clearly spooked by the election and
confidence now stands at just 6%
Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2015
Net business optimism in the economic outlook
692
78
65
59
56
52
38
33
26
Ireland
UK
Netherlands
Germany
Q1-2015 Change from 2014 average
Business growth
Georgia
Spain
EU
Global
Italy
Turkey
Poland
Greece
Sweden
Baltics
Russia
Finland
France
Armenia
7. The future of Europe 7
The future of Europe 2015
France becalmed, Italy improving Northern Europe upbeatTrouble in the East
With the outlook so unclear, very few businesses are
expecting to raise revenues, increase profits or add jobs
over the next 12 months. The European Commission
has given France more time to bring its budget deficit
below the 3% target (somewhat to the annoyance of
smaller eurozone countries who have been forced to
stick by the rules) in order to boost competitiveness
which has fallen well behind Germany since 2003.
By contrast, Italian businesses are increasingly
confident in the ability of their energetic Prime Minister
Matteo Renzi to push through tough reforms. Almost
a third of businesses are now optimistic in the economic
outlook (32%) compared with -1% in 2014 on average.
A further 36% of businesses now expect to increase
profits (compared with just 2% this time last year)
and 22% expect to add jobs up from just 11% on
average last year.
59% of businesses are optimistic in the outlook for 2015,
broadly the same as the 2014 average (58%), while they
remain in the top ten globally for revenue (67%) and
profitability (52%) growth. Two major clouds on the
horizon are the ageing population (29% of businesses
cited a lack of skilled workers as a growth constraint over
the past 12 months) and rising energy costs (34%) due to
the green energy transition, which means some German
businesses face energy costs twice as high as their US
competitors, and the fact that Russia supplies over a
third of its gas needs.
Business confidence in the UK moderated somewhat
in the build-up to the general election on 7 May, but 65%
of business leaders are optimistic in the economic outlook,
the sixth highest globally. Indicators for raising exports,
investment in plant and machinery and R&D have all
climbed steadily over the past three years, while just
12% of businesses are worried about a lack of demand
(compared with 27% globally) driven by improving
consumer confidence and low inflation.
In the Netherlands, business optimism has surged to
78%, up from 47% on average across 2014 with export
expectations (42%) now ten percentage points higher than
last year and businesses increasingly likely to add jobs
(36%). The fluid political situation in Sweden following
last September’s elections means confidence has dropped
to just 4% (from 43% this time last year) but businesses
remain more upbeat about their own growth prospects,
although less so compared with 2014, with a lack of
demand (36%) high on the agenda.
Poland saw a sharp drop in business optimism in
Q1, falling to 24% from an average of 39% in 2014.
Meanwhile the outlook for exports (around 5% of
which go to Russia) has fallen: just 10% of businesses
expect to increase overseas sales, compared with 33%
on average in 2014.
In the Baltics, optimism has fallen even further,
dropping to -5% in Q1, down from 12% on average
last year. The proportion of businesses citing a lack of
orders has jumped to 36% across the three states, up
from 25% on average in 2014, and well above the
eurozone average (26%). Export (down to 17% from
21% in 2014) and profitability (16%, from 20%)
expectations have both declined.
Armenian businesses are even more concerned in the
economic outlook (-32%) with profitability and export
expectations flat (0%) although their counterparts in
Georgia remain remarkably upbeat (56% optimistic).
Businesses in Russia itself are starting to feel economic
sanctions bite: a majority are now pessimistic (-6%),
a drop of 18 percentage points on the 2014 average.
French business leaders remain very
downbeat about growth prospects.
Business optimism stands at -15%, the
fifteenth straight quarter of pessimism,
although this is an improvement from
the previous quarter (-36%).
German business confidence remains robust
despite tepid economic growth prospects.
The fallout from the Ukraine crisis is clearly
dampening business growth prospects across
Eastern Europe as supply chains become
harder to manage and traditional export
markets dry up.
8. 84% 72%45% 64%
8 The future of Europe
The future of Europe 2015
Despite the gathering momentum of the recovery, the future of Europe is still very uncertain. Germany is pushing for ever
closer union and broader governance over eurozone budgets to avoid a repeat of the sovereign debt crisis. Paradoxically,
this push for greater unity could lead, if not to a break-up, then perhaps to a stoking of nationalistic flames and ultimately
to countries leaving either the single currency (Greece) or the EU (UK) which could send dramatic if unknown
reverberations across the region.
The future: still uncertain
Drifting apart
Europe’s banks are certainly much better
insulated against a Greek default and so
the risks of financial contagion have fallen
since the 2012 restructuring. Policymakers
in Italy, Portugal and Spain are more
certain now that their economies and
financial systems are strong enough to
survive a Grexit although the knock-on
effects in terms of EU integration are
hard to predict.
Across the eurozone, fewer than half of
business leaders think a Grexit would have
a negative effect on the single currency; a
fifth actually think it would have a positive
effect. Clearly Greek businesses are most
worried (84%) but their counterparts
in northern Europe, including the
Netherlands (24%), Finland (26%)
and most importantly Germany
(37%) are less concerned.
Business leaders across Europe appear more sanguine about the possibility of Greece leaving
the single currency, the so-called ‘Grexit’, than they might have been three years ago.
Business leaders are more concerned
with the possibility of a UK exit from
the European Union or ‘Brexit’. The
Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2015
Percentage of businesses who think exit would have a negative impact on the European economy
Greek exit (from eurozone) UK exit (from EU)
Eurozone Eurozone
Greece UK
Europe is better insulated from the
repercussions of a Grexit but the
ultimate impact is hard to predict.
prospect of a British referendum on
EU membership now looks a certainty
following the result of the UK general
election but it remains to be seen whether
David Cameron can exact the concessions
he wants from other European leaders.
Close to a third of eurozone businesses
(64%) believe a Brexit would have a
negative impact on Europe, and just 5%
would expect a positive impact. Close
trading partner Ireland (92%) is the most
concerned by the prospect of the UK
leaving the EU, as are Spain (84%),
although Germany (61%) and France
(51%) are relatively less worried.
9. 82
75
72
70
68
68
68
62
58
54
48
44
30
24
The future of Europe 9
The future of Europe 2015
Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2015
Percentage of businesses who want to see further
European economic integration (%)
More or less Europe?
Just 5% of eurozone business leaders
want to exit the single currency, down
from 9% this time last year, and 89%
want to see further integration of some
sort, unchanged from 2014. Further
economic integration is supported by
two-thirds of eurozone business leaders
(66%), led by Spain (82%), Germany
(75%) and Estonia (70%). In Greece too
more than two thirds of business leaders
are looking for further economic
integration (68%), perhaps in the hope of
sharing the national debt burden.
However, business leaders in some
northern European economies -
particularly Ireland (54%), the
Netherlands (48%) and Finland
(44%) - are markedly less keen than
12 months ago.
In Germany, Greece, Italy and Spain
more than two in five businesses want
to foster closer political ties, more than
double the rate in Finland, Ireland and
the Baltics.
Attitudes to further European integration within the eurozone remain comparable with
12 months ago, but they have hardened somewhat for EU member states outside the
single currency, accentuating the split between the euro ‘ins’ and ‘outs’.
Outside the euro, just 35% of EU
businesses support further economic
integration, although this masks a
significant split between Poland on one
side, with Sweden and the UK on the
other. Almost three-quarters of Polish
businesses (72%) want more EU economic
unity, up 5 percentage points from 2014,
and 42% want to join the single currency
(although this is down from 64% in 2012).
By contrast, just 30% and 24% of UK
and Swedish businesses respectively
want to see more economic collaboration
(although 24% of Swedes are keen on
closer political ties, compared to 4% in the
UK). And the proportion of businesses in
each economy that want to join the euro
remains fairly low at 28% in Sweden and
13% in the UK.
Spain
Poland
Greece
Latvia
Italy
Netherlands
UK
Germany
Estonia
Lithuania
France
Ireland
Finland
Sweden
Polish business leaders want to see
more EU integration but support for
joining the euro has fallen.
10. 17%
20%
30%
17% 10%
23% 9%
25%
13%
24%
10 The future of Europe
The future of Europe 2015
Multiple threats
Business leaders in Spain (45%)
and Italy (44%), where unemployment
is running very high, are particularly
concerned. Outside the eurozone, Sweden
(38%) is much more worried about high
unemployment than the UK (11%),
where a record number of people
are now in work.
For those working in economies bordering
Europe, the economic slowdown in the
region has had a significant impact on the
attractiveness of the EU as a place to do
business. While the draw of the world’s
largest single market remains strong, this is
Fading appeal
Europe clearly faces a number of challenges, even as economic conditions improve. Businesses inside the eurozone
see high unemployment (25%) as the greatest threat to EU stability. In the short-term unemployment can incite
social unrest and in the long-term it lowers a country’s growth potential as people suffer ‘skills atrophy’.
Low growth rates are cited by 23%
of eurozone business leaders and are a
particular concern in the Baltic states
of Estonia (48%), Lithuania (32%) and
Latvia (26%), as well as France (31%).
High levels of national debt are a concern
to a fifth of eurozone businesses,
particularly Germany (25%) and
Lithuania (36%) and 30% of those
outside the euro, led by Poland (30%)
and the UK (32%).
Which of the following do you think represents the biggest single threat to the economic stability of the EU?
Deflation is cited by 17% of eurozone
businesses, including 24% in Germany
and 38% in Greece, while 24% of non-
euro businesses are worried about the
rise in popularity of nationalist political
parties, unsurprisingly led by 28%
of UK businesses ahead of an election
where such parties won an increasing
share of the vote.
a reminder of the potential damage to
long-term European growth prospects,
particularly if businesses in these markets
choose to invest in other economies with
stronger growth prospects. Half of
businesses in Russia (50%) say the
slowdown has had a negative impact on
the region as a place to do business,
although this may have something to do
with economic sanctions, ahead of Georgia
(40%), Armenia and Turkey (both 30%).
High unemployment Deflation Low growth rates High levels of national debt Rise in popularity of
nationalist political parties
Other EU
Eurozone
German business leaders are
most concerned by high debt
and deflation.
11. The future of Europe 11
The future of Europe 2015
Energy security Blurred bordersGrexit contagion Neighbourhood policy
Shortages of food, water and energy
are likely to be the greatest drivers of
global conflict over coming years.
While Europe is well blessed with
agricultural land and water supplies,
energy security is a far greater threat.
Resistance to fracking, unclear new
carbon emission guidelines and
tension with Russia all make powering
growth across the region harder. The
energy transition in Germany offers
one possible model of increasing
long-term energy security, but this has
imposed high short-term costs on
businesses and consumers which
some more indebted nations are
unwilling to levy. It remains to be
seen whether plans for a single EU
energy market get off the ground.
The EU was created to lower trade
and cooperation barriers between
member states, but the borders
between countries have now become
so blurred that tensions are rising in
a number of areas. The rise of the
digital economy has overridden
physical borders and has led to the
accommodating transfer pricing
policies of economies such as Ireland
and Luxembourg being questioned.
The wider implications of single visa
travel in the Schengen area have been
sharpened by the thousands of
migrants fleeing conflict in North
Africa. And the free movement of
workers across the region has been
seized upon by populist political
parties who want to limit immigration.
Debt negotiations between Greece
and the troika (IMF, European
Commission and ECB) continue
with Greece’s place in the single
currency in the balance. Southern
European countries claim to be better
placed to deal with any contagion
effects from a Grexit, but the longer
term ramifications - for example, on
trade and eurozone unity - are
unknown. Greece accounts for just
2% of eurozone but a default would
still put significant stress on creditor
economies, notably France and
Germany. If a larger heavily indebted
economy, such as Italy,
were to default, these problems
be greatly magnified.
EU neighbourhood policy hit a brick
wall in Ukraine. Policymakers appear
to have misread Russia’s probable
reaction and the question now is
whether EU relationship building
with its immediate neighbours and
better relations with Russia are
mutually exclusive. Even if they are
not, some accommodation will be
needed on both sides if developments
in countries such as Armenia and
Georgia are not to cause tensions to
rise. Improved EU-Russia relations
would benefit the global economy but
there will be further hurdles to
overcome even if a resolution can be
found to the conflict in Ukraine.
Four big issues for Europe