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Getting the world economy 
into higher gear 
Paris, 6th November 2014 
11h00 Paris time 
Catherine L. Mann 
OECD Chief Economist 
Advance G-20 release of Economic Outlook
Key messages 
Global growth is modest, with widening differences across 
countries 
Financial risks are rising and volatility is set to increase 
Potential growth has slowed, interacting with weak demand 
Weakness in the euro area is a major concern 
Monetary, fiscal and structural policies must all be employed to 
address risks and support growth 
2
The global economy is stuck in low gear 
3 
World GDP growth 
Per cent, seasonally adjusted annualised rate 
-8 
-6 
-4 
-2 
0 
2 
4 
6 
8 
-8 
-6 
-4 
-2 
0 
2 
4 
6 
8 
Average, 1995-2007 
Source: Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database..
Trade growth has been weak 
4 
Trade intensity1 
Index, 1990=100 
50 
100 
150 
200 
250 
300 
350 
United States 
Trend (1990-2007) 
50 
100 
150 
200 
250 
300 
350 
Japan 
50 
100 
150 
200 
250 
300 
350 
European Union 
50 
100 
150 
200 
250 
300 
350 
BRIICS 
1. Index of sum of exports and imports as a ratio of GDP. 
Source: Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database.
5 
Demand patterns are diverging 
. 
Non-residential investment 
per capita 
Index, 2005 = 100 
Private consumption 
per capita 
Index, 2005 = 100 
80 
90 
100 
110 
120 
80 
90 
100 
110 
120 United States Euro area Japan 
85 
90 
95 
100 
105 
110 
115 
85 
90 
95 
100 
105 
110 
115 
United States Euro area Japan 
Source: OECD national accounts database; Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database; and OECD calculations.
6 
Unemployment rate 
Per cent 
Labour market: divergent performance, 
but overall slack remains 
Number of unemployed persons 
Millions 
Source: Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database. 
0 
2 
4 
6 
8 
10 
12 
14 
0 
2 
4 
6 
8 
10 
12 
14 United States Euro area Japan 
3.6 
5.9 
11.5 
0 
10 
20 
30 
40 
50 
60 
0 
10 
20 
30 
40 
50 
60 
Other OECD USA Euro area 
10 million 
17 million 
15 million 
7 million 
12 million 
18 million
7 
Trends are also diverging 
among emerging economies 
. 
GDP per capita 
Volume, 2005=100 
80 
100 
120 
140 
160 
180 
200 
220 
240 
80 
100 
120 
140 
160 
180 
200 
220 
240 
China 
India 
Brazil 
Russia 
Source: OECD National Accounts database; Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database; IMF WEO 
database; Central Statistical Organisation, India; and OECD calculations.
Growth projections for 2015-16 
GDP 
Volume, percentage change 
8 
Preliminary Economic Outlook (EO) projections - figures will be updated for 
incoming data for the complete EO release on 25 November . 
Column1 2013 2014 2015 2016 
World 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.9 
United States 2.2 2.2 3.1 3.0 
Euro area -0.4 0.8 1.1 1.7 
Japan 1.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 
China 7.7 7.3 7.1 6.9 
India 4.7 5.4 6.4 6.6 
Brazil 2.5 0.3 1.5 2.0 
Russia 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.0
Growth projections for 2015-16 
9 
GDP growth 
Per cent 
Source: Preliminary November 2014 OECD Economic Outlook database. 
7.1 
6.4 
5.4 
3.9 
3.8 3.7 
3.2 3.1 2.7 
2.5 2.5 
2.2 
1.7 
1.5 
1.1 1.1 1.1 
0.9 
0.2 0.0 
6.9 
6.6 
6.0 
4.2 
4.1 3.9 
4.0 
3.0 
2.5 
2.4 
3.0 2.9 
1.9 2.0 
0.8 
1.8 1.7 1.5 
1.0 
2.0 
-1 
0 
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
6 
7 
8 
-1 
0 
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
6 
7 
8 
2015 
2016
10 
RISKS
11 
The threat of euro area stagnation remains 
Inflation 
HIPC, 12-month percentage change 
Note: Shaded bands show +/- one standard deviation based on past variation. 
Source: Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database. 
GDP 
Year-on-year percentage change 
-0.5 
0.0 
0.5 
1.0 
1.5 
2.0 
2.5 
3.0 
3.5 
-2 
-1 
0 
1 
2 
3 
4 
5
12 
Diverging monetary policies could lead to 
more volatility for emerging economies 
. 
Emerging market bonds 
Total return index, January 2013=100 
Portfolio exposure of BRIICS 
excluding China 
85 
90 
95 
100 
105 
85 
90 
95 
100 
105 
JP Morgan EMBI+ Composite 
Tapering talk 
-80 
-60 
-40 
-20 
0 
20 
40 
60 
80 
-1 
0 
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
6 
7 
8 
Per cent of USD Billion 
GDP 
Net inflow (RHS) 
Cumulative net inflow (LHS) 
Source: JP Morgan; Federal Reserve, United States; Datastream; IMF Balance of Payments database; OECD National 
Accounts database; and OECD calculations.
13 
Financial market volatility: upsurge likely 
0 
10 
20 
30 
40 
50 
60 
70 
80 
90 
0 
10 
20 
30 
40 
50 
60 
70 
80 
90 
VIX index 
Volatility index based on S&P500 stock index option prices 
Note: The blue curves suggest troughs of the VIX. 
Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE); Datastream.
14 
Advanced economy debt levels are high 
and credit growth in China is rapid 
Debt excluding the financial sector 
Per cent of GDP 
. 
China: credit to non-financial private 
sector 
Per cent of GDP 
0 
20 
40 
60 
80 
100 
120 
140 
160 
180 
200 
0 
20 
40 
60 
80 
100 
120 
140 
160 
180 
200 
Bank lending Non-bank credit 
0 
100 
200 
300 
400 
500 
0 
100 
200 
300 
400 
500 
2007 2013 2007 2013 2007 2013 
United 
States 
Euro area Japan 
Government 
Household 
Non-financial corporations 
Source: Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database; ECB; OECD Financial accounts; and CEIC.
Potential growth rates could fall further 
15 
0 
2 
4 
6 
8 
10 
12 
0 
2 
4 
6 
8 
10 
12 
United States Euro area Japan China India Brazil 
1998-2002 2003-2007 2008-2014 
Potential GDP growth 
Annual average, per cent 
Source: Preliminary November 2014 OECD Economic Outlook database.
16 
POLICIES
Monetary policy: Continued need to support 
demand, but more variation in circumstances 
US: Policy rates rise from mid-2015 
Brazil and Russia: May need to raise rates further 
China: Trade-off between sustaining demand and stability 
Japan: QQE continue until inflation target sustainably achieved 17 
Central bank assets 
Per cent of GDP 
Policy rates 
Per cent 
0 
10 
20 
30 
40 
50 
60 
0 
10 
20 
30 
40 
50 
60 
United States 
Euro area 
Japan 
Source: Datastream; National Central Banks. 
0 
2 
4 
6 
8 
10 
12 
14 
0 
2 
4 
6 
8 
10 
12 
14 
Brazil India 
Russia China
Existing ECB Measures ECB Policy Options 
Very low policy rates (incl. negative 
deposit rates) 
Open-ended or large-scale asset purchases: 
Long-Term Refinancing Operations 
(LTROs) 
• Increased outright purchases of asset-backed 
securities and covered bonds 
Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing 
Operations (TLTROs) 
• Outright purchase of sovereign bonds 
Outright purchases of asset-backed 
securities and covered bonds 
• Outright purchase of investment-grade 
corporate bonds 
Forward guidance 
ECB must act decisively to support growth 
and head off deflation 
Monetary policy stimulus – beyond measures already 
announced – is needed in combination with banking union and 
structural reforms 
18
Fiscal policy: flexible and designed to better 
support growth 
19 
Flexibility and discretion within the EU fiscal rules should be 
used to reduce the drag on demand 
Japan must continue to address its fiscal challenges 
Fiscal packages should be more supportive of growth 
Improvement in underlying primary balance 
Per cent of potential output 
-1 
0 
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
6 
7 
8 
-1 
0 
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
6 
7 
8 
United States Euro area Japan 
2010-2014 
2015-2016 
Source: Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database.
Structural policies: more ambitious reforms 
needed to boost growth 
Some signs that reform momentum in advanced countries has slowed 
Better recent alignment with Going for Growth priorities in the BRIICS 
Some laggards are launching reforms – implementation will be key. 
Other countries need to scale up their ambition. 20 
Responsiveness to Going for Growth reform priorities 
Per cent 
0 
10 
20 
30 
40 
50 
60 
70 
80 
0 
10 
20 
30 
40 
50 
60 
70 
80 
Low-responsiveness 
OECD 
High-responsiveness 
OECD 
BRIICS 
2011-12 2013-14 
Source: Going for Growth (2015, forthcoming).
G-20 reform commitments will 
give a welcome impetus to growth 
G-20 countries will present growth strategies at the Brisbane 
summit 
OECD/IMF Estimates: Strategies would raise G-20 GDP by about 
2% (USD 1.6 trillion) in 2018 if fully implemented 
21 
Incremental GDP gains by 
implementation of policy commitments 
Per cent 
Growth strategy commitments by area 
Investment & 
Infrastructure 
31% 
Employment 
35% 
Competition 
19% 
Trade 
15% 
. 
0 
5 
10 
15 
20 
25 
30 
0 
5 
10 
15 
20 
25 
30 
2009-2013 2014-2018 
Increase in GDP relative to baseline if growth 
strategies implemented 
Baseline GDP growth (Cumulative) 
Source: draft G-20 growth strategies, and OECD calculations.
Key messages 
Global growth is modest, with widening differences across 
countries 
Financial risks are rising and volatility is set to increase 
Potential growth has slowed, interacting with weak demand 
Weakness in the euro area is a major concern 
Monetary, fiscal and structural policies must all be employed to 
address risks and support growth 
22

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Advance G20 release of OECD Economic Outlook

  • 1. Getting the world economy into higher gear Paris, 6th November 2014 11h00 Paris time Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist Advance G-20 release of Economic Outlook
  • 2. Key messages Global growth is modest, with widening differences across countries Financial risks are rising and volatility is set to increase Potential growth has slowed, interacting with weak demand Weakness in the euro area is a major concern Monetary, fiscal and structural policies must all be employed to address risks and support growth 2
  • 3. The global economy is stuck in low gear 3 World GDP growth Per cent, seasonally adjusted annualised rate -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Average, 1995-2007 Source: Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database..
  • 4. Trade growth has been weak 4 Trade intensity1 Index, 1990=100 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 United States Trend (1990-2007) 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Japan 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 European Union 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 BRIICS 1. Index of sum of exports and imports as a ratio of GDP. Source: Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database.
  • 5. 5 Demand patterns are diverging . Non-residential investment per capita Index, 2005 = 100 Private consumption per capita Index, 2005 = 100 80 90 100 110 120 80 90 100 110 120 United States Euro area Japan 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 United States Euro area Japan Source: OECD national accounts database; Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database; and OECD calculations.
  • 6. 6 Unemployment rate Per cent Labour market: divergent performance, but overall slack remains Number of unemployed persons Millions Source: Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 United States Euro area Japan 3.6 5.9 11.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Other OECD USA Euro area 10 million 17 million 15 million 7 million 12 million 18 million
  • 7. 7 Trends are also diverging among emerging economies . GDP per capita Volume, 2005=100 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 China India Brazil Russia Source: OECD National Accounts database; Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database; IMF WEO database; Central Statistical Organisation, India; and OECD calculations.
  • 8. Growth projections for 2015-16 GDP Volume, percentage change 8 Preliminary Economic Outlook (EO) projections - figures will be updated for incoming data for the complete EO release on 25 November . Column1 2013 2014 2015 2016 World 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.9 United States 2.2 2.2 3.1 3.0 Euro area -0.4 0.8 1.1 1.7 Japan 1.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 China 7.7 7.3 7.1 6.9 India 4.7 5.4 6.4 6.6 Brazil 2.5 0.3 1.5 2.0 Russia 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.0
  • 9. Growth projections for 2015-16 9 GDP growth Per cent Source: Preliminary November 2014 OECD Economic Outlook database. 7.1 6.4 5.4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.9 6.6 6.0 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.4 3.0 2.9 1.9 2.0 0.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.0 2.0 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2015 2016
  • 11. 11 The threat of euro area stagnation remains Inflation HIPC, 12-month percentage change Note: Shaded bands show +/- one standard deviation based on past variation. Source: Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database. GDP Year-on-year percentage change -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 12. 12 Diverging monetary policies could lead to more volatility for emerging economies . Emerging market bonds Total return index, January 2013=100 Portfolio exposure of BRIICS excluding China 85 90 95 100 105 85 90 95 100 105 JP Morgan EMBI+ Composite Tapering talk -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Per cent of USD Billion GDP Net inflow (RHS) Cumulative net inflow (LHS) Source: JP Morgan; Federal Reserve, United States; Datastream; IMF Balance of Payments database; OECD National Accounts database; and OECD calculations.
  • 13. 13 Financial market volatility: upsurge likely 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 VIX index Volatility index based on S&P500 stock index option prices Note: The blue curves suggest troughs of the VIX. Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE); Datastream.
  • 14. 14 Advanced economy debt levels are high and credit growth in China is rapid Debt excluding the financial sector Per cent of GDP . China: credit to non-financial private sector Per cent of GDP 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Bank lending Non-bank credit 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 100 200 300 400 500 2007 2013 2007 2013 2007 2013 United States Euro area Japan Government Household Non-financial corporations Source: Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database; ECB; OECD Financial accounts; and CEIC.
  • 15. Potential growth rates could fall further 15 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 United States Euro area Japan China India Brazil 1998-2002 2003-2007 2008-2014 Potential GDP growth Annual average, per cent Source: Preliminary November 2014 OECD Economic Outlook database.
  • 17. Monetary policy: Continued need to support demand, but more variation in circumstances US: Policy rates rise from mid-2015 Brazil and Russia: May need to raise rates further China: Trade-off between sustaining demand and stability Japan: QQE continue until inflation target sustainably achieved 17 Central bank assets Per cent of GDP Policy rates Per cent 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 United States Euro area Japan Source: Datastream; National Central Banks. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Brazil India Russia China
  • 18. Existing ECB Measures ECB Policy Options Very low policy rates (incl. negative deposit rates) Open-ended or large-scale asset purchases: Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) • Increased outright purchases of asset-backed securities and covered bonds Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) • Outright purchase of sovereign bonds Outright purchases of asset-backed securities and covered bonds • Outright purchase of investment-grade corporate bonds Forward guidance ECB must act decisively to support growth and head off deflation Monetary policy stimulus – beyond measures already announced – is needed in combination with banking union and structural reforms 18
  • 19. Fiscal policy: flexible and designed to better support growth 19 Flexibility and discretion within the EU fiscal rules should be used to reduce the drag on demand Japan must continue to address its fiscal challenges Fiscal packages should be more supportive of growth Improvement in underlying primary balance Per cent of potential output -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 United States Euro area Japan 2010-2014 2015-2016 Source: Preliminary November 2014 Economic Outlook database.
  • 20. Structural policies: more ambitious reforms needed to boost growth Some signs that reform momentum in advanced countries has slowed Better recent alignment with Going for Growth priorities in the BRIICS Some laggards are launching reforms – implementation will be key. Other countries need to scale up their ambition. 20 Responsiveness to Going for Growth reform priorities Per cent 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Low-responsiveness OECD High-responsiveness OECD BRIICS 2011-12 2013-14 Source: Going for Growth (2015, forthcoming).
  • 21. G-20 reform commitments will give a welcome impetus to growth G-20 countries will present growth strategies at the Brisbane summit OECD/IMF Estimates: Strategies would raise G-20 GDP by about 2% (USD 1.6 trillion) in 2018 if fully implemented 21 Incremental GDP gains by implementation of policy commitments Per cent Growth strategy commitments by area Investment & Infrastructure 31% Employment 35% Competition 19% Trade 15% . 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2009-2013 2014-2018 Increase in GDP relative to baseline if growth strategies implemented Baseline GDP growth (Cumulative) Source: draft G-20 growth strategies, and OECD calculations.
  • 22. Key messages Global growth is modest, with widening differences across countries Financial risks are rising and volatility is set to increase Potential growth has slowed, interacting with weak demand Weakness in the euro area is a major concern Monetary, fiscal and structural policies must all be employed to address risks and support growth 22