The document discusses the state of European economies in January 2009 and August 2010. It summarizes that the European Commission raised its 2010 GDP growth forecasts for the EU and eurozone to 1.8% and 1.7% respectively, driven by strong export growth in Germany. However, growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year as the global economy hits a soft patch. Unemployment rates remain elevated across Europe.

1. 10° Meeting Nazionale ACEF Umberto Bertelè Presidente MIP School of Management Politecnico di Milano 16 Settembre 2010

2. Lo stato delle economie europee nel gennaio 2009 Fonte: Financial Times (www.ft.com/interactive)

3. Lo stato delle economie europee nell’agosto 2010 Fonte: Financial Times (www.ft.com/interactive)

4. L’andamento del PIL (da The Wall Street Journal del 13.9.2010 “ EU Raises 2010 Growth Forecasts ” di Matthew Dalton) The European Commission on Monday raised its 2010 economic growth forecasts for the European Union and the euro zone , saying strong growth in industrial exports is driving a faster-than-expected recovery from the economic crisis. The commission, the EU's executive arm, said the 27-nation bloc's economy will likely grow 1.8% in 2010, up from its forecast in May of 0.9%. Growth in the 16 countries that use the euro is expected at 1.7%, up from the May forecast of 0.9%, the commission said. The EU's unexpectedly strong growth in the second quarter, fueled largely by strong sales from Germany's export sector, will lift the region's growth prospects for the entire year, the commission said. But growth during the second half is unlikely to repeat the second quarter's performance, according to the commission, even though a "double dip" recession is unlikely. "The global economy is still expected to go through a soft patch in the second half of the year, implying a dampening effect on EU export growth," the commission said. Inflation is likely to remain muted, averaging 1.8% in the EU and 1.4% in the euro zone for 2010, the commission said. The strong performance of Germany's export sector has fueled concerns that current account imbalances between the EU's largest economy and economies in southern Europe may grow. But "signs of a revival in domestic demand, including private consumption, also became evident, particularly in Germany," the commission said.

5. L’andamento del PIL

6. L’andamento del PIL (da The Wall Street Journal del 30.8.2010 “ Does the French Government Really Believe its Own Economic Forecasts? ” di Irwin Stelzer) […] Finance Minister Christine Lagarde predicts the French economy will chalk up growth of 2.0% next year, and reduce the budget deficit from 8% of GDP to 6%. The basis for her optimism is unclear. France's plan to preserve its threatened triple-A bond rating by cutting its deficit to 6% next year and 3% by 2013 will require austerity measures, if implemented - no sure thing since 2011 is a presidential election year - that will lop 1.4% off next year's growth. That, plus the dampening effect on French exports of slowing growth in China and America, prompted Jean-Christophe Caffet, economist at Natixis, to forecast that France will grow in 2011 at only a 1% rate. Add the facts that in half of the past 12 years France has failed to achieve 2% growth, and that the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development notes that "France has a poor track record in meeting the deficit targets in its stability programs," and one has to wonder whether the government actually believes its projections. Still, Ms. Lagarde's optimism is easier to understand than President Nikolas Sarkozy's view that he has found the perfect substitute for Anglo-Saxon capitalism. Mr. Sarkozy relentlessly trumpets the French model of active state intervention as an alternative to "Anglo-Saxon neoliberalism.”

7. L’andamento del PIL […] Since GDP per capita in America is approximately 40% higher than it is in France, and since "France's economic performance has deteriorated in recent decades relative to that of many of its peers," according to the EIU, one has to wonder why Mr. Sarkozy wants to export his high-unemployment, low-growth, high-deficit model to innocent citizens in other countries. Because France's welfare system creates disincentives to work, it has one of the lowest labor-force participation rates in Europe, and its workers put in fewer hours than in any developed country outside of Scandinavia. Fewer productive hours and an ageing population are a combination that threatens the affordability of the French welfare state. […] It does, of course, preclude the sort of strikes that periodically stifle the French economy: France lost more than five times as many days to strikes as did Germany in 2007, the last year for which France will release data . With 16 of the 18 members of the euro zone in aggregate contributing nothing to growth, the burden of moving the zone forward falls to France and Germany, which together account for about half of euro-zone GDP. Germany is growing much faster than France, no surprise: a leading French politician explained to me that France's policy focus must be more on redistributing the existing pie than on growing the pie, hardly a recipe designed to realize Ms. Lagarde's expectations. In which case the entire euro zone will be the loser, and Mr. Sarkozy will have a more difficult time selling his alternative to "neoliberalism" and German economic management.

8. L’andamento del PIL (dal Financial Times del 14.9.2010 “ Turkish GDP grows 3.7% in second quarter ” di Delphine Strauss ) Turkey’s economy grew 10.3 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2010, according to official data confirming one of the swiftest rebounds from last year’s recession among emerging economies. The double-digit expansion in gross domestic product outstripped analysts’ average forecasts, as did a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 3.7 per cent. The recovery has lost some momentum in recent months, but Mehmet Simsek, finance minister, had said he expected growth of about 6 per cent over the year as a whole – in line with independent forecasts. “Turkey has emerged from the global crisis as one of the world’s fastest growing economies,” Ali Babacan, economy minister, said in a statement celebrating the latest data, which he said ranked Turkey alongside China for the fastest second quarter expansion in the Group of 20. […] The recovery has been driven by domestic demand, including a surge in private sector investment, and the latest double-digit growth rate appears likely to rule out any further loosening in monetary policy this year. […]. “In a week or two, investors will start asking ‘What is new about Turkey to justify my overweight position?’” read a sceptical commentary published on Monday by the US consultancy Global Source. “Turkey remains an average growth emerging market with an overvalued currency and a growing current account deficit problem.”

9. Surplus, neutral and deficit countries

10. Surplus, neutral and deficit countries (dal Financial Times / Lex del 10.08.2010 “ Rebalancing trade ”) Trade surpluses are a habit that is hard to break. China and Germany released large positive monthly balances in the past two days, while the Japanese trade account, which had slipped towards equilibrium during the last recession, is once again running at the pre-crisis rate of a positive 4 per cent of gross domestic product. Even-handed economists consider such trade surpluses just as disruptive to global harmony as the corresponding deficits. But calls for more consumption from the excess exporters have gone unheeded. Why? Mercantilist thinking may play a role, especially in China, which may view its huge foreign currency reserves as a form of security. But for Germany and Japan – and for the Netherlands, Taiwan and Sweden, which all run chronic trade surpluses – the surplus can almost be thought of as an accident.

11. Surplus, neutral and deficit countries (…) In these countries, the quantity of exports is determined by industrial productivity (fantastic) and the position of export-orientated industries (privileged), while consumption and imports are strongly influenced by demographics (depressing) and tradition (buy local, save mightily). The pro-export factors outweigh the largely unrelated pro-import group. The outcome is much the same in China, although some of the factors are different. The government likes to push exports, while most of the things that make life better in this still poor country – roads, new houses, electrical goods, finer food – can be produced domestically. The big commodity exporting nations have a similar inability to absorb enough imports to reduce their surpluses – double-digit percentages of GDP on average between 2002 and 2007 for Saudi Arabia, Libya and Venezuela. In theory, higher exchange rates can force trade into balance. But eurozone membership and the reliance on dollars for commodity trades limit the process. And in other countries, it is hard to change the habitual willingness of governments to cheer exporters on.

12. Gli indicatori macro-economici: l’evoluzione dei consumi Fonte: The Wall Street Journal (www.wsj.com – The State of Global Recovery )

13. Gli indicatori macro-economici: la produzione industriale negli US Fonte: US National Bureau of Statisics Indice 1997 = 100

14. Gli indicatori macro-economici: la produzione industriale in Europa Fonte: Eurostat Indice 2005 = 100

15. Gli indicatori macro-economici: la produzione industriale in Italia Fonte: Confindustria Indice 2005 = 100

16. Gli indicatori macro-economici: l’andamento del capex Fonte: The Wall Street Journal (www.wsj.com – The State of Global Recovery )

17. Gli indicatori macro-economici: il tasso di disoccupazione Fonte: Eurostat

18. Gli indicatori macro-economici: il tasso di disoccupazione in Europa Fonte: Eurostat Dati al Luglio 2010

19. Gli indicatori macro-economici: l’andamento dei sovereign debt Fonte: Financial Times (www.ft.com/interactive)

20. Gli indicatori macro-economici: il debito “complessivo” dei Paesi Fonte: Governo Italiano DPEF 2010-2013

21. Gli indicatori macro-economici: l’andamento dei tassi di interesse Fonte: Financial Times Paese Rendimento dei Bond a 10 anni Paese Rendimento dei Bond a 10 anni Australia 5.04% Japan 1.10% Austria 2.79% Netherlands 2.55% Belgium 3.17% New Zealand 5.44% Canada 2.95% Norway 3.30% Denmark 2.45% Portugal 5.75% Finland 2.62% Spain 4.16% France 2.71% Sweden 2.59% Germany 2.39% Switzerland 1.46% Greece 11.58% UK 3.06% Italy 3.85% US 2.72%

22. Gli indicatori macro-economici: la “salute” delle banche Fonte: Credit Suisse Fonte: Financial Times

23. Le principali imprese mondiali (miliardi di € ) Market cap 30.07.2007 Market cap 30.11.2008 (*) Market cap 14.09.2010 (**) Exxon Mobil 321,50 313,66 239,16 PetroChina 669,87 237,70 216,09 Apple 92,17 57,69 187,85 Microsoft 200,78 133,85 167,31 Berkshire Hatway 150,00 114,41 158,90 I&C Bank of China 100,44 39,06 156,24 China Mobile 251,46 112,86 154,44 Wal-Mart Stores 132,90 144,53 146,19 Hsbc 159,76 138,90 140,78 Procter&Gamble 143,15 145,35 132,14 Royal Dutch Shell 150,28 97,91 138,41 J&J 130,07 117,27 127,94 AT&T 182,85 123,70 127,08 (*)La variazione dell’indice S&P500 nel periodo 30.07.2007-30.11.2008 è pari a – 41,6% (**)La variazione dell’indice S&P500 nel periodo 30.07.2007–14.09.2010 è pari a - 26,9%

24. Le principali imprese mondiali (da The Wall Street Journal del 13.9.2010 “ Waning Economic Recovery Fuels Global Uncertainty ” di Mark Whitehouse, Marcus Walker e Joann S. Lublin) […] The U.S. has ample resources to restimulate the global recovery. U.S. companies are sitting on some $1.8 trillion in cash - the highest level, as a share of their total assets, since 1963. If and when uncertainties over income taxes, health care and government policy clear up, companies could grow confident enough to deploy that cash to hire workers and invest in new projects. That, in turn, could inspire U.S. consumers to return to the malls. "The amount of cash that corporate America has is astonishing," says Jim O'Neill, head of global economics research at Goldman Sachs in London. "If they put that to work, then off we go.” […]

25. Le principali imprese italiane (miliardi di €) Market cap 30.07.2007 Market cap 30.11.2008 (*) Market cap 14.09.2010 (**) Eni 101,60 71,32 66,37 Unicredit 99,60 (°) 26,69 39,69 Enel 51,40 36,73 37,30 Intesa Sanpaolo 77,30 25,59 29,85 Generali 44,70 26,87 23,55 Telecom Italia 38,60 16,30 19,27 SnamReteGas 12,22 12,15 13,22 Saipem 10,20 4,87 12,40 Fiat 26,60 5,83 12,23 Luxottica 11,70 6,60 9,06 (*) La variazione dell’indice FTSE MIB nel periodo 30.07.2007–30.11.2008 è pari a – 51,2% (**)La variazione dell’indice FTSEMIB nel periodo 30.07.2007–14.09.2010 è pari a - 48,7% (°) Sommando la capitalizzazione di Unicredito e Capitalia