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International trade in fish and fish production

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Will there be any international trade ? Will there be any fish to trade? What are the challenges and what do we need to do about it?

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International trade in fish and fish production

  1. 1. “Foro Económico de Pesca y Acuacultura 2015” TENDENCIAS MUNDIALES DE LA COMERCIALIZACIÓN DE PRODUCTOS PESQUEROS Y ACUÍCOLAS 26 y 27 de noviembre de 2015 , Ciudad de México, Mexico 1 Presentation by Árni M. Mathiesen Assistant Director-General Fisheries and Aquaculture DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations International trade in fish and fish production
  2. 2. OPENING QUESTIONS: 2 First let us analyze the developments over the last decades and the present situation. Will there be any international trade? 1.Due to political reasons? 2.Due to lack of demand? 3.Due to environmental reasons? • Will there be any fish to trade? • What are the challenges and what do we need to do about it? 1. Can we do anything about it? 2. Should we do anything about it?
  3. 3. Total Landings of Marine Fisheries 3
  4. 4. Marine Fish Landings by Continent 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Milliontonnes Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania 4
  5. 5. Fish Landings: Developed vs Developing Nations 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0e+001e+072e+073e+074e+075e+076e+07 yrs Landings(t) 5
  6. 6. Fish Landings: High vs Low Trophic Level 6
  7. 7. Landings’ Proportion of Fish with Trophic Level=>4 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1214161820 %FishTL=>4 7
  8. 8. Global Trend in the State of World Marine Fish Stocks, 1974-2011 8
  9. 9. Proportion of overfished Stocks by FAO Statistical Area 9
  10. 10. 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2012 Aquaculture for human consumption Capture for human consumption Non-food uses Per capita food fish supply Production (million tonnes live weight) Per capita yearly supply (kg) 10
  11. 11. Americas, Europe, Africa, and Oceania Combined. 9% [Million Tonnes] 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 China 61% Asia 91% Aquaculture vs. Capture Fisheries Production 11
  12. 12. -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Capture Aquaculture Asia Africa Central America South America North America Europe Oceania 2004 to 2013% change in fish production by world region 12
  13. 13. 0 5 10 15 20 25 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Kgpercapitaperyear USDbillion World seafood exports World seafood consumption Linear (World seafood exports) Linear (World seafood consumption) Globalization in a graph: world seafood exports vs world average seafood consumption 1976 to 2014 13
  14. 14. 35.2% 35.4% 35.6% 35.8% 36.0% 36.2% 36.4% 36.6% 36.8% 37.0% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2012 2013 2014 Percentagetraded Milliontonnes Production volume Trade volume Proportion of production traded Production vs trade – last three years 14
  15. 15. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 USDbillion Developed Import Developing Import 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 USDbillion Developed Export Developing Export World seafood trade: developed vs developing 15
  16. 16. 0 50 100 150 200 250 Fish Meat (Terrestrial) Terrestrial meat price index vs. Fish price inde Jan 2000 – Jan 2015 16
  17. 17. Conclusion from this analyzes is: • Total production has stabilized over the last 20 years. • Capture fisheries landings have shifted from developed countries to developing countries. • Degree of overfishing has been stabilizing over the last 20 years but is still unacceptable. • Aquaculture is overtaking capture fisheries in production for human consumption. • Great expansion in trade, particularly from developing countries to developed countries, is slowing down. 17
  18. 18. Conclusion from this analyzes is: A. Center of gravity for fish production has moved from developed countries to developing countries, where small scale fisheries will be extremely important. B. Center of gravity has moved from capture fisheries to aquaculture, particularly aquaculture in Asia. 18
  19. 19. Will there be any international trade in fish? 1. Political reasons? The general political environment is favorable. Something dramatic has to happen to change that. 2. What about demand? 19
  20. 20. • 805 million people estimated to be suffering from chronic hunger in 2012–14, down 100 million in the last decade. • The vast majority, 791 million, live in developing countries. Hunger 1014.5 929.9 946.2 840.5 805.3 994.1 908.7 930.8 824.9 790.7 700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 1990-92 2000-02 2005-07 2009-11 2012-14 World Developing regions No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % WORLD 1 014.5 18.7 929.9 14.9 946.2 14.3 840.5 12.1 805.3 11.3 Number of undernourished (millions) and prevalence (%) of undernourishment 1990–92 2000–02 2005–07 2008–10 2012–14* 20
  21. 21. Vitamin A deficiency Causes blindness. 250 million preschool children affected. Iron deficiency Anaemia contributes to 20% of all maternal deaths. 40% of preschool children anaemic in developing countries. Iodine deficiency Impairing cognitive development in children 54 countries still iodine-deficient Millions of children suffering nutrition deficiency Source: WHO 805 million hungry people Source: WHO Trend  Worldwide obesity has nearly doubled since 1980. Adults (aged 20 or older)  More than 1.4 billion (35% of total) overweight in 2008  Over 200 million men and nearly 300 million women (11 % of total) obese in 2008. Children (under the age of 5)  More than 40 million children overweight or obese in 2012. Billions of obese or overweight people Source: WHO Food security and nutrition status Hunger hand-in-hand with poverty 21
  22. 22. Contribution of fish to human nutrition 22.9 19.4 11.6 10.3 7.6 6.5 24.1 16.7 0 10 20 30 Asia Africa Europe Oceania Northern America Latin America &… LIFDCs World % Fish as a percentage of total animal protein intake Fish provides high quality animal protein Fish especially important to countries with low animal protein intake Vitamin A Protein DHA EPA Vitamin D Vitamin B12 Zinc Iron Calcium Selenium Iodine Fish, a source of nutrients Daily need (RDI) for children: DHA+EPA (Ω-3); seafood main source 150 (250) µg Vitamin A; 250 million preschool children deficient 150 (250) mg Iron; 1.6 billion people deficient 8.9 mg (at 10% bioavailability) Iodine; seafood natural source, 2 billion people deficient 120 µg Zinc; 800 000 child deaths per year 5.6 mg (at moderate bioavailability) 22
  23. 23. • . OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections (2022) Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 (Table A.26.2). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2010-12 average. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red. WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 Projections Source: World Bank Report on Fish to 2030 (Table 3.7). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2006. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red Country/ region Fish Demand (2030) Total fish prod. (2012, mil. tonne) S-D gap 2030 (col. 4 minus col. 3) kg/cap. Total (mil. tonne) WORLD 29.1 261.2 156.5 -104.7 S.S. Africa 10.8 15.1 6.9 -8.2 L.A. & C. 12.2 18.3 14.8 -3.4 N. Africa 12.9 3.7 2.8 -0.8 Europe 27.3 23.4 16.0 -7.4 N. America 29.8 12.9 6.7 -6.1 Oceania 31.9 1.8 1.4 -0.3 Asia 37.0 186.3 107.8 -78.5 Future fish supply and demand projections FAO/FI Fish Supply-Demand Gap Projections Source: Estimation of FI/FAO (preliminary results) Main assumptions: 1) Per capita fish demand affected by income growth. 2) Fish price unchanged. 3) Preference over fish unchanged 23
  24. 24. What about environmental reasons? a. Climate change: Video presentation delivered on the on the occasion of the Workshop on the Climate Change’s Impact held in Boracay Islands, Philippines 9th May 2015: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQ-fS2TZX_Y b. We have done relatively well in the last 20 years post CCRF. The situation is stable in fisheries but the next 20 years may be different, continued challenge. c. Aquaculture has a very light ecological foot print compared to terrestrial animal protein production systems. However question marks around animal protein and trophic levels. 24
  25. 25. 25
  26. 26. Greater demand for certification and traceability 26
  27. 27. FAO response Guidelines o for Eco-Labeling of Fish and Fishery Products from Marine Capture Fisheries (2005) o for the Eco-Labeling of Fish and Fishery Products from Inland Capture Fisheries (2010) o for Aquaculture Certification (2011) 27
  28. 28. Bench Marking/Traceability 28 Bench Marking/GSSI Traceability/Catch Documentation
  29. 29. Committee on Fisheries (COFI) Sub-committee on Fish Trade (FT) • Established in 1985, first session October 1986 • Open to all FAO members • Functions:  periodic reviews of global markets  discussion of specific issues  promotion and development of fish trade, particularly in developing countries  formulation of recommendations, guidelines and standards 29
  30. 30. Main Challenges There are many challenges some of which have been mentioned They fall into two categories: 1. Refining the management and governance of fisheries in developed and middle income-countries. 2. Refining the certification/traceability systems to benefit a broader group of producers. 30
  31. 31. Main Challenges However, there are two main fundamental major challenges, both in the shadow of climate change: • Aquaculture • Small Scale Fisheries 31
  32. 32. Governments Governance: • Policy (environment, socio economic). • Regulatory frameworks. • Monitoring and surveillance. Infrastructure: • Technology, capacity, services. • Seed and feed. • Water and energy. 32 Increased Aquaculture Production
  33. 33. Increased Aquaculture Production Private Sector: Operations: • Resource use efficiency, best practices. • Business management, productivity. • Profitability. Markets: • Access to consumers and finance. • Transparency, traceability, certification. • Codex and food safety. 33
  34. 34. Sustainable Intensification of Aquaculture • Feed utilization Fish meal, protein, FCR / BP, R&D, Genetics • Water quality O2, NH3, Silt / BP, R&D, Reg. F.W. • Mortality rates Husban., Inf.d., Vacc. / BP, R&D, Genetics • Profitability Res.util., prod., finance / Tech., exte.,fine., cc. • Livelihoods and equity Decent work, gender and youth. 34
  35. 35. Small Scale Fisheries in Developing Countries > 50 % of the total catch > 90% of the workers Almost always marginalized and in many cases the poorest of the poorest in their countries. What possibilities do they have to improve their fisheries management? With help they can? - What happens when you attempt to improve a fishery? - Fishing effort is reduced. Fishermen are left on the beach. - Total community income is reduced. The population suffers. 35
  36. 36. A holistic community approach is needed that contains the following elements: 1. Improved fisheries management system taking into account the biological and the socio/economic circumstances. 2. Address the unemployment through creating alternative employment opportunities through: a. Increasing the value of the catch with value addition and by increasing trade activity and internalizing the value chain income in the community by the communities’ greater participation in trade. b. Developing aquaculture and other income generating ecosystem services in the community. c. Seek investment from outside in these enterprises. Blue bonds/Green bonds. 36
  37. 37. A holistic community approach is needed that contains the following elements: 3. Create a community/cooperative/enterprise fishing rights system that closes the fishery to newcomers but also links as beneficiaries both those that continue fishing as well as those taking on new activities in common enterprises with supporting outside Blue bond investment 4. Set up a bridging (at least) social support system to make up for community income loss during transitional period. This needs to be financed by central governments or traditional external donors. 37
  38. 38. Doing this calls for involvement of both investors and trade business in creating new opportunities and training individuals and building capacity in the communities. Also the traders need to be open to new products as well as the traditional ones. However, if we don’t do it we risk fisheries collapsing and trade flows reducing as well as communities collapsing and therefore driving migration. 38 Involvement
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  40. 40. THANK YOU FOR LISTENING 40
  41. 41. Muchas Gracias Takk Thank you Merci 41

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