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Astrophysical Journal Letters, 800, L17
Preprint typeset using LATEX style emulateapj v. 5/2/11
THE CLOSEST KNOWN FLYBY OF A STAR TO THE SOLAR SYSTEM
Eric E. Mamajek1
, Scott A. Barenfeld2
, Valentin D. Ivanov3,4
, Alexei Y. Kniazev5,6,7
,
Petri V¨ais¨anen5,6
, Yuri Beletsky8
, Henri M. J. Boffin3
Astrophysical Journal Letters, 800, L17
ABSTRACT
Passing stars can perturb the Oort Cloud, triggering comet showers and potentially extinction events
on Earth. We combine velocity measurements for the recently discovered, nearby, low-mass binary
system WISE J072003.20-084651.2 (“Scholz’s star”) to calculate its past trajectory. Integrating the
Galactic orbits of this ⇠0.15 M binary system and the Sun, we find that the binary passed within only
52+23
14 kAU (0.25+0.11
0.07 parsec) of the Sun 70+15
10 kya (1 uncertainties), i.e. within the outer Oort Cloud.
This is the closest known encounter of a star to our solar system with a well-constrained distance and
velocity. Previous work suggests that flybys within 0.25 pc occur infrequently (⇠0.1 Myr 1
). We
show that given the low mass and high velocity of the binary system, the encounter was dynamically
weak. Using the best available astrometry, our simulations suggest that the probability that the star
penetrated the outer Oort Cloud is ⇠98%, but the probability of penetrating the dynamically active
inner Oort Cloud (<20 kAU) is ⇠10 4
. While the flyby of this system likely caused negligible impact
on the flux of long-period comets, the recent discovery of this binary highlights that dynamically
important Oort Cloud perturbers may be lurking among nearby stars.
Subject headings: Oort Cloud — Galaxy: kinematics and dynamics — Stars: individual (WISE
J072003.20-084651.2, Scholz’s star, HIP 85605)
1. INTRODUCTION
Perturbations by passing stars on Oort cloud comets
have previously been proposed as the source of long-
period comets visiting the planetary region of the solar
system (Oort 1950; Biermann et al. 1983; Weissman
1996; Rickman 2014), and possibly for generating Earth-
crossing comets that produce biological extinction events
(Davis et al. 1984). Approximately 30% of craters with
diameters >10 km on the Earth and Moon are likely due
to long-period comets from the Oort Cloud (Weissman
1996). Periodic increases in the flux of Oort cloud
comets due to a hypothetical substellar companion have
been proposed (Whitmire & Jackson 1984), however
recent time series analysis of terrestrial impact craters
are inconsistent with periodic variations (Bailer-Jones
2011), and sensitive infrared sky surveys have yielded no
evidence for any wide-separation substellar companion
(Luhman 2014). A survey of nearby field stars with
Hipparcos astrometric data (Perryman et al. 1997) by
Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. (1999) identified only a single
candidate with a pass of within 0.9 pc of the Sun (Gl
710; 1.4 Myr in the future at ⇠0.34 pc), however it
emamajek@pas.rochester.edu
1 Department of Physics & Astronomy, University of
Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627, USA
2 Department of Astronomy, California Institute of Technol-
ogy, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA
3 European Southern Observatory, Av. Alonso de Cordova
3107, 19001 Casilla, Santiago 19, Chile
4 European Southern Observatory, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 2,
85748 Garching bei M¨unchen, Germany
5 South African Astronomical Observatory, PO Box 9, 7935
Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa
6 Southern African Large Telescope Foundation, PO Box 9,
7935 Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa
7 Sternberg Astronomical Institute, Lomonosov Moscow State
University, Moscow, Russia
8 Las Campanas Observatory, Carnegie Institution of Wash-
ington, Colina el Pino, Casilla 601 La Serena, Chile
is predicted that ⇠12 stars pass within 1 pc of the
Sun every Myr (Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. 2001). A recent
analysis by Bailer-Jones (2014) of the orbits of ⇠50,000
stars using the revised Hipparcos astrometry from van
Leeuwen (2007), identified four Hipparcos stars whose
future flybys may bring them within 0.5 pc of the Sun
(however the closest candidate HIP 85605 has large
astrometric uncertainties; see discussion in §3).
A low-mass star in the solar vicinity in Mono-
ceros, WISE J072003.20-084651.2 (hereafter W0720 or
“Scholz’s star”) was recently discovered with a photomet-
ric distance of ⇠7 pc and initial spectral classification of
M9 ± 1 (Scholz 2014). This nearby star likely remained
undiscovered for so long due to its combination of prox-
imity to the Galactic plane (b = +2 .3), optical dimness
(V = 18.3), and low proper motion (⇠0”.1 yr 1
). The
combination of proximity and low tangential velocity for
W0720 (Vtan ' 3 km s 1
) initially drew our attention
to this system. If most of the star’s motion was radial,
it was possible that the star may have a past or future
close pass to the Sun. Indeed, Burgasser et al. (2014)
and Ivanov et al. (2014) have recently reported a high
positive radial velocity. Burgasser et al. (2014) resolved
W0720 as a M9.5+T5 binary and provided a trigonomet-
ric parllax distance of 6.0+1.2
0.9 pc. Here we investigate the
trajectory of the W0720 system with respect to the solar
system, and demonstrate that the star recently (⇠70,000
years ago) passed through the Oort Cloud.
2. DATA & ANALYSIS
We obtained medium resolution spectroscopy of
W0720 on UT 17 and 19 November 2013 with the South-
ern African Large Telescope (SALT) and Magellan tele-
scopes, in the optical and near-infrared respectively. As
summarized in Ivanov et al. (2014), we estimated the
arXiv:1502.04655v1[astro-ph.SR]16Feb2015
2 Mamajek et al.
spectral type of W0720 to be L0 ± 1, and measured a
radial velocity of 77.6 ± 2.5 km s 1
. Recent adaptive op-
tics imaging and high resolution spectroscopy by Bur-
gasser et al. (2014) indicated that the star is actually a
low-mass binary classified as M9.5+T5, with projected
separation 0.8 AU, and a multi-epoch mean radial veloc-
ity of 83.1 ± 0.4 km s 1
. Given the radial velocity accu-
racy, number of reported epochs (11), and improved as-
trometric solution provided by the recent Burgasser et al.
(2014) study, we simply adopt their parameters for our
calculations: ↵ = 07:20:03.21 (ICRS; epoch 2014.0),
= -08 460
5100
.83 (ICRS; epoch 2014.0), µ↵ = -40.3 ± 0.2
mas yr 1
, µ = -114.8 ± 0.4 mas yr 1
, $ = 166 ± 28 mas,
d = 6.0+1.2
0.9 pc, vradial = 83.1 ± 0.4 km s 1
, vtotal =
83.2 ± 0.4 km s 1
(all 1 uncertainties).
Using the Galactic velocity ellipsoids and population
normalizations from Bensby et al. (2003), we estimate
that W0720 has probabilities of 77.3%, 22.5%, and
0.2% of belonging to the thin disk, thick disk, and
halo Galactic populations, respectively. The spectral
classification indices are consistent with a thin disk star
of approximately solar composition (Burgasser et al.
2014) (classified “dM” based on ⇣ = 1.034 ± 0.018 ;
L´epine et al. 2007). Classification as a metal-poor
subdwarf is ruled out, and given the correlation between
metallicity and kinematic properties for M-type stars
(Savcheva et al. 2014), it is unlikely that W0720 belongs
to either the thick disk or halo. Among 890 nearby
solar-type stars from a chromospheric activity-velocity
catalog (Jenkins et al. 2011), only 3 have Galactic
velocity components within ±10 km s 1
of W0720’s
velocity (HIP 51500, 63851, 117499), and all three are
less chromospherically active than our Sun (log R’HK
 -4.95) and have inferred chromospheric ages in the
range 4-8 Gyr (Mamajek & Hillenbrand 2008). W0720’s
velocity is similar to that of the Hercules dynamical
stream, a kinematic group of stars of heterogenous ages
and composition, likely perturbed to the solar circle
from smaller Galactocentric radii due to dynamical
interactions with the Galactic bar (Bensby et al. 2007).
Based on its status as an old thin disk star, consideration
of the ages of Sun-like stars of similar velocity, and
the isochronal ages for other Hercules stream members
(Bensby et al. 2014), we adopt an age for W0720 of 3-10
Gyr (2 range). Interpolating the mass-age estimates
for the W0720 components from Burgasser et al. (2014)
for solar composition, this age range maps to compo-
nent masses of MA = 86 ± 2 MJup and MB = 65 ± 12
MJup (2 uncertainties). The hydrogen-burning mass
limit for stars is near ⇠75 MJup (Saumon & Marley
2008; Dieterich et al. 2014), hence W0720A is probably
a low-mass star, and W0720B is probably a brown dwarf.
We integrated the orbit of W0720 and the Sun
with a realistic Galactic gravitational potential using
the NEMO Stellar Dynamics Toolbox (Teuben 1995;
Barenfeld et al. 2013). With the current velocity data,
we simulated 104
orbits of W0720 and the Sun, sam-
pling the observed astrometric values and observational
uncertainties for W0720 using Gaussian deviates. From
these 104
simulations which take into account the
observational uncertainties, we find that W0720 passed
as close as = 0.252+0.111
0.068 pc (1 ; +0.317
0.110 pc 2 ) or
52.0+22.9
13.9 kAU (1 ; +65.5
22.7 kAU 2 ) of the Sun. The
time of closest approach was 70.4+14.7
9.8 (1 ; +36.2
17.6 2 )
kya9
. Figure 1 shows the distributions of the closest
approach separations and times for W0720 and the Sun
for the 104
orbit simulations. The median nearest pass
position from the simulations was (X, Y, Z) = (-0.122,
+0.120, +0.185) pc (here quoted in a comoving frame
centered on the solar system barycenter, where X is in
the current direction of the Galactic center, Y is in the
current direction of Galactic rotation, and Z is towards
the current north Galactic pole), with approximate 1
uncertainties of ( X , Y , Z) = (0.047, 0.045, 0.068)
pc, corresponding to celestial position (↵ICRS, ICRS
' 170 ± 29 , +68 ± 14 ; 1 unc.), in the vicinity of
Ursa Major. As a check, we also calculated a linear
trajectory that ignores the Galactic potential, finding
that W0720’s closest approach was 70.7 kya at 0.25
parsec at a barycentric position in Galactic coordinates
of (X, Y, Z = -0.125, +0.119, +0.185 pc). Note that
given the short timespan, the predictions of the time
and position of the W0720-Sun minimum pass from the
linear trajectory agrees with the more accurate orbit
integration to better than 2.5%. At its closest pass
W0720 would have had proper motion exceeding any
known star: 70” yr 1
(i.e. capable of traversing a full
moon in 26 years; cf. the current highest proper motion
star, Barnard’s star, with 10.300
yr 1
).
The predicted Galactic coordinates of the nearest
pass of the binary system (`, b = 135 ± 15 , 47 ± 13 )
is near one of the two strong peaks in the longitude
of aphelia distribution of new class I comets from the
Oort Cloud (` = 135 ± 15 ) (Matese et al. 1999).
However this appears to be coincidence, as any comets
on eccentricity ⇠ 1 orbits from the vicinity of the
nearest pass ⇠70 kya would have periods of ⇠4 Myr,
and hence require ⇠2 Myr to reach the inner solar
system. Also, the two primary peaks in the distribution
of longitudes of aphelia for long-period comets are
reasonably explained by the e↵ects of the solar motion
and Galactic tide (Feng & Bailer-Jones 2014). Among
104
simulations, the nearest past separation between
W0720 and the Sun was = 0.087 pc (18.0 kAU),
and this was the only simulation that brought W0720
within the classical boundary of the dynamically active
inner Oort Cloud (“Hills Cloud”) (Hills 1981; Weissman
1996) at a < 20 kAU. Approximately 79% of the
simulations brought W0720 within 0.337 pc of the Sun,
the previously closest estimated pass of a known star
to the solar system (Gliese 710; 0.337 pc, 1.4 Myr in
the future; Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. 2001). Approximately
99.96% of the simulated trajectories brought the star
within the Sun’s tidal radius of 1.35 pc (Mamajek et al.
2013), and 98% of the simulated trajectories brought
the star within the maximal range of semi-major axes
for retrograde orbiting Oort Cloud comets (⇠120 kAU)
(Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. 1999). The rarity of stellar passes
with such a small impact parameter can be assessed
from the analysis of Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. (2001).
Extrapolating the power-law distribution of minimum
separations versus cumulative number of encounters per
9 kya = thousand years ago.
Oort Cloud Perturber 3
Myr from Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. (2001), one estimates
that encounters by stellar systems within 0.25 pc of the
Sun occur with a frequency of 0.11 Myr 1
or once every
⇠9.2 Myr. For comparison, flybys this close (0.25 pc)
are statistically rare (⇠2.4%) among encounters by all
stellar systems that penetrate the Sun’s tidal radius of
⇠1.35 pc (Mamajek et al. 2013), of which ⇠4.5 occur
per Myr (Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. 2001).
Figure 1. Lower left: Density plot of the distribution of mini-
mum separations between W0720 and the Sun (in pc) versus time
of minimum separation (in thousands of years ago; “kya”) for 104
Galactic orbit simulations. The maximum semi-major axis for ret-
rograde orbiting Oort Cloud comets is ⇠0.58 pc (right blue solid
line), and the dynamically active inner Oort Cloud is at <0.10 pc
(left blue solid line). The entire region plotted is within the Sun’s
tidal radius (⇠1.35 pc). Upper left: Histogram of simulated closest
W0720-Sun separations (pc). Lower right: Histogram of simulated
times of closest W0720-Sun separation (kya).
The flyby’s gravitational interaction is in the regime
where the Sun’s influence on the star’s trajectory (and
vice versa) is negligible (Collins & Sari 2010): GM /bv2
⇤
' 10 5.6
<< 1, where G is the Newtonian constant,
M is the Sun’s mass, b is impact parameter (minimum
Sun-star separation), and v⇤ is the velocity of the star
with respect to the solar system barycenter. Major
comet showers, where the flux of long-period comets
increases by factors of >10 are likely limited to cases of
high mass interlopers passing within ⇠10 kAU of the
Sun (Heisler & Tremaine 1986), and are exceedingly rare
(<10 3
Myr 1
; extrapolating from results by Garc´ıa-
S´anchez et al. 2001). A perturbed comet with new
aphelion similar to that of the Sun-W0720 minimum
separation, but with perihelion in the planetary region
of the solar system, will have a ' 26 kAU and P ⇠ 4.2
Myr. Although comets throughout the Oort cloud may
be perturbed by an interloper star onto trajectories that
would bring them to the inner solar system (Weissman
1996), the highest density of outer Oort cloud comets
should exist at smaller orbital distances (Heisler 1990),
so most of the perturbed comets should originate from
the vicinity of the star’s closest pass to the Sun. Hence,
any enhancement on the long-period comet flux should
become manifest ⇠2 Myr in the future. A proxy indica-
tor of the encounter-induced flux of Oort Cloud comets
is defined as = M⇤/v⇤b (Feng & Bailer-Jones 2014,
using the variables as defined earlier, and with M⇤ being
the mass of the interloper binary W0720). Using the 104
simulations, we estimate that the W0720 flyby induced
⇠ 10 7.48 ± 0.15(1 )
M km 1
s AU 1
. Simulations by
Feng & Bailer-Jones (2014) suggest that encounters with
< 10 5.3
are unlikely to generate an enhancement in
the distribution of longitudes for long-period comets
compared to that predicted to be generated by Galactic
tidal e↵ects. All of the 104
simulated orbits had <
10 7.0
, hence the pass of the W0720 system should have
a negligible statistical impact on the flux of long-period
comets during the coming millenia.
3. THE CLOSEST KNOWN FLYBY?
The proximity of W0720’s flyby to the solar system can
be compared to those of Hipparcos stars recently stud-
ied by Bailer-Jones (2014). He identified one star (HIP
85605) with a flyby closer than the median minimum sep-
aration that we estimated for W0720 (0.25 pc), however
two future flybys (HIP 89825 [Gl 710] and HIP 63721)
both have ' 0.27 pc (0.27+0.17
0.17 pc and 0.27+0.40
0.23 pc,
respectively; 90%CL). Bailer-Jones (2014) predicts that
HIP 85605 will pass within = 0.10+0.10
0.06 pc (90% CL)
of the Sun ⇠332 kyr in the future. Unfortunately, as
Bailer-Jones (2014) points out, HIP 85605 is a visual bi-
nary, and there is considerable dispersion in its published
proper motions and its Hipparcos parallax is of low ac-
curacy. The solution which brings HIP 85605 close to the
Sun relies on the Tycho-2 proper motion (µ↵, µ = +4.0,
-7.6 ± 2.0, 1.9 mas yr 1
; Høg et al. 2000), the revised
Hipparcos parallax of $ = 146.84 ± 29.81 mas, and the
Pulkovo radial velocity of -21.0 ± 0.3 km/s (Gontcharov
2006, as reported in the XHIP compiled catalog; Ander-
son & Francis (2012)). If any of these values are substan-
tially in error, then the proximity of the flyby solution
is likely to be spurious. Both the original and revised
Hipparcos astrometric solutions (Perryman et al. 1997;
van Leeuwen 2007) had much larger proper motions than
the Tycho-2 solution. Bailer-Jones (2014) mentions that
a reanalysis of the Hipparcos astrometric solution by F.
van Leeuwen suggests “that the Hipparcos-2 parallax of
Hip 85605 and its (relatively large) uncertainty are valid,
but that on account of the large residuals and the complex
nature of this system the solution should be treated with
caution.”
Unfortunately, the Hipparcos parallax for HIP 85605
leads to some astrophysical inconsistency. As Bailer-
Jones (2014) note, HIP 85605’s B-V color (1.1 mag) is
consistent with a K-type star, whereas the absolute mag-
nitude calculated using its revised Hipparcos parallax
(MV = 11.86 ± 0.45 mag) is more consistent with an M
dwarf. We find that HIP 85605’s colors from Hipparcos
and 2MASS (B-V = 1.10 ± 0.11, V-Ks ' 2.66 ± 0.07, J-H
' 0.53 ± 0.03, H-Ks ' 0.12 ± 0.03) are all consistent with
a ⇠K4 dwarf (Pecaut & Mamajek 2013), in agreement
with the spectral template fitting analysis of Pickles &
Depagne (2010, ; which also yielded K4V). Dave Latham
(priv. comm.) has visually confirmed that five spectra
of HIP 85605 taken with the CfA Digital Speedometer
4 Mamajek et al.
(as reported in Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. 1999) are indeed
consistent with a typical K dwarf. As HIP 85605 is spec-
trophotometrically a K dwarf, the Hipparcos-derived ab-
solute magnitude (MV ' 11.9) places the star nearly 5
magnitudes fainter than the main sequence (MMS
V ' 7.0)
for a star of its color - too faint to be simply a metal-
poor dwarf, yet too red and luminous for a white dwarf10
.
Hence, most likely HIP 85605 is a ⇠K4V at d ' 60 pc and
the Hipparcos parallax is erroneous. At d ' 60 pc, HIP
85605 has a slightly di↵erent velocity (U, V, W = -10.7,
-14.3, -11.6 km s 1
) compared to that used in the simu-
lation by Bailer-Jones (2014), and its “flyby” of the Sun
correspondingly moves further into the future and further
away (⇠2.8 Myr in future, ⇠10 pc away). We conclude
that HIP 85605 is unlikely to penetrate the Sun’s Oort
Cloud, and that W0720 now appears to have the closest
flyby of any known star.
4. DISCUSSION
Given its current visual magnitude of V ' 18.3 (Ivanov
et al. 2014), at its closest approach of ⇠0.25 pc, Scholz’s
star (W0720) would have had an apparent magnitude of
V ' 10.3, brighter than the current nearest star (Prox-
ima; V = 11.2) but still much dimmer than the faintest
naked eye stars (V ⇠ 6). However, W0720 is an ac-
tive M dwarf star (Burgasser et al. 2014), and V -band
flares have been observed to exceed 9 mag on timescales
of minutes amongst such stars, and brief flares exceeding
12 mag may be possible (Schmidt et al. 2014). Flares
amongst the coolest M dwarfs have been witnessed with
energies of ⇠1034
ergs (Schmidt et al. 2014) and lumi-
nosities of ⇠1029
-1030
erg s 1
. If W0720 experienced
occasional flares similar to those of the active M8 star
SDSS J022116.84+194020.4 (Schmidt et al. 2014), then
the star may have been rarely visible with the naked eye
from Earth (V < 6; V < 4) for minutes or hours dur-
ing the flare events. Hence, while the binary system was
too dim to see with the naked eye in its quiescent state
during its flyby of the solar system ⇠70 kya, flares by
the M9.5 primary may have provided visible short-lived
transients visble to our ancestors.
Improved astrometry for W0720 via ground-based
telescopes (Dieterich et al. 2014) or Gaia (de Bruijne
2012), and further radial velocity monitoring, should help
reduce the uncertainties in the flyby timing and mini-
mum separation between Scholz’s star and the solar sys-
tem. Past systematic searches for stars with close flybys
to the solar system have been understandably focused
on the Hipparcos astrometric catalog (Garc´ıa-S´anchez
et al. 1999; Bailer-Jones 2014), however it contains rela-
tively few M dwarfs relative to their cosmic abundance.
Searches in the Gaia astrometric catalog for nearby M
dwarfs with small proper motions and large parallaxes
(i.e. with small tangential velocities) will likely yield ad-
dition candidates.
EEM acknowledges support from NSF grant AST-
1313029. AYK and PV acknowledge the support from
the National Research Foundation (NRF) of South
Africa. We thank Dave Latham, Alice Quillen, Kevin
Luhman, Cameron Bell, Dave Cameron, Peter Teuben,
Segev Ben-Zvi, Adam Burgasser, Ralf-Dieter Scholz,
Matt Multunas, and Richard Sarkis for discussions. We
thank the referee for a very timely and useful report.
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The closest known_flyby_of_a_star_to_the_solar_system

  • 1. Astrophysical Journal Letters, 800, L17 Preprint typeset using LATEX style emulateapj v. 5/2/11 THE CLOSEST KNOWN FLYBY OF A STAR TO THE SOLAR SYSTEM Eric E. Mamajek1 , Scott A. Barenfeld2 , Valentin D. Ivanov3,4 , Alexei Y. Kniazev5,6,7 , Petri V¨ais¨anen5,6 , Yuri Beletsky8 , Henri M. J. Boffin3 Astrophysical Journal Letters, 800, L17 ABSTRACT Passing stars can perturb the Oort Cloud, triggering comet showers and potentially extinction events on Earth. We combine velocity measurements for the recently discovered, nearby, low-mass binary system WISE J072003.20-084651.2 (“Scholz’s star”) to calculate its past trajectory. Integrating the Galactic orbits of this ⇠0.15 M binary system and the Sun, we find that the binary passed within only 52+23 14 kAU (0.25+0.11 0.07 parsec) of the Sun 70+15 10 kya (1 uncertainties), i.e. within the outer Oort Cloud. This is the closest known encounter of a star to our solar system with a well-constrained distance and velocity. Previous work suggests that flybys within 0.25 pc occur infrequently (⇠0.1 Myr 1 ). We show that given the low mass and high velocity of the binary system, the encounter was dynamically weak. Using the best available astrometry, our simulations suggest that the probability that the star penetrated the outer Oort Cloud is ⇠98%, but the probability of penetrating the dynamically active inner Oort Cloud (<20 kAU) is ⇠10 4 . While the flyby of this system likely caused negligible impact on the flux of long-period comets, the recent discovery of this binary highlights that dynamically important Oort Cloud perturbers may be lurking among nearby stars. Subject headings: Oort Cloud — Galaxy: kinematics and dynamics — Stars: individual (WISE J072003.20-084651.2, Scholz’s star, HIP 85605) 1. INTRODUCTION Perturbations by passing stars on Oort cloud comets have previously been proposed as the source of long- period comets visiting the planetary region of the solar system (Oort 1950; Biermann et al. 1983; Weissman 1996; Rickman 2014), and possibly for generating Earth- crossing comets that produce biological extinction events (Davis et al. 1984). Approximately 30% of craters with diameters >10 km on the Earth and Moon are likely due to long-period comets from the Oort Cloud (Weissman 1996). Periodic increases in the flux of Oort cloud comets due to a hypothetical substellar companion have been proposed (Whitmire & Jackson 1984), however recent time series analysis of terrestrial impact craters are inconsistent with periodic variations (Bailer-Jones 2011), and sensitive infrared sky surveys have yielded no evidence for any wide-separation substellar companion (Luhman 2014). A survey of nearby field stars with Hipparcos astrometric data (Perryman et al. 1997) by Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. (1999) identified only a single candidate with a pass of within 0.9 pc of the Sun (Gl 710; 1.4 Myr in the future at ⇠0.34 pc), however it emamajek@pas.rochester.edu 1 Department of Physics & Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627, USA 2 Department of Astronomy, California Institute of Technol- ogy, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA 3 European Southern Observatory, Av. Alonso de Cordova 3107, 19001 Casilla, Santiago 19, Chile 4 European Southern Observatory, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 2, 85748 Garching bei M¨unchen, Germany 5 South African Astronomical Observatory, PO Box 9, 7935 Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa 6 Southern African Large Telescope Foundation, PO Box 9, 7935 Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa 7 Sternberg Astronomical Institute, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia 8 Las Campanas Observatory, Carnegie Institution of Wash- ington, Colina el Pino, Casilla 601 La Serena, Chile is predicted that ⇠12 stars pass within 1 pc of the Sun every Myr (Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. 2001). A recent analysis by Bailer-Jones (2014) of the orbits of ⇠50,000 stars using the revised Hipparcos astrometry from van Leeuwen (2007), identified four Hipparcos stars whose future flybys may bring them within 0.5 pc of the Sun (however the closest candidate HIP 85605 has large astrometric uncertainties; see discussion in §3). A low-mass star in the solar vicinity in Mono- ceros, WISE J072003.20-084651.2 (hereafter W0720 or “Scholz’s star”) was recently discovered with a photomet- ric distance of ⇠7 pc and initial spectral classification of M9 ± 1 (Scholz 2014). This nearby star likely remained undiscovered for so long due to its combination of prox- imity to the Galactic plane (b = +2 .3), optical dimness (V = 18.3), and low proper motion (⇠0”.1 yr 1 ). The combination of proximity and low tangential velocity for W0720 (Vtan ' 3 km s 1 ) initially drew our attention to this system. If most of the star’s motion was radial, it was possible that the star may have a past or future close pass to the Sun. Indeed, Burgasser et al. (2014) and Ivanov et al. (2014) have recently reported a high positive radial velocity. Burgasser et al. (2014) resolved W0720 as a M9.5+T5 binary and provided a trigonomet- ric parllax distance of 6.0+1.2 0.9 pc. Here we investigate the trajectory of the W0720 system with respect to the solar system, and demonstrate that the star recently (⇠70,000 years ago) passed through the Oort Cloud. 2. DATA & ANALYSIS We obtained medium resolution spectroscopy of W0720 on UT 17 and 19 November 2013 with the South- ern African Large Telescope (SALT) and Magellan tele- scopes, in the optical and near-infrared respectively. As summarized in Ivanov et al. (2014), we estimated the arXiv:1502.04655v1[astro-ph.SR]16Feb2015
  • 2. 2 Mamajek et al. spectral type of W0720 to be L0 ± 1, and measured a radial velocity of 77.6 ± 2.5 km s 1 . Recent adaptive op- tics imaging and high resolution spectroscopy by Bur- gasser et al. (2014) indicated that the star is actually a low-mass binary classified as M9.5+T5, with projected separation 0.8 AU, and a multi-epoch mean radial veloc- ity of 83.1 ± 0.4 km s 1 . Given the radial velocity accu- racy, number of reported epochs (11), and improved as- trometric solution provided by the recent Burgasser et al. (2014) study, we simply adopt their parameters for our calculations: ↵ = 07:20:03.21 (ICRS; epoch 2014.0), = -08 460 5100 .83 (ICRS; epoch 2014.0), µ↵ = -40.3 ± 0.2 mas yr 1 , µ = -114.8 ± 0.4 mas yr 1 , $ = 166 ± 28 mas, d = 6.0+1.2 0.9 pc, vradial = 83.1 ± 0.4 km s 1 , vtotal = 83.2 ± 0.4 km s 1 (all 1 uncertainties). Using the Galactic velocity ellipsoids and population normalizations from Bensby et al. (2003), we estimate that W0720 has probabilities of 77.3%, 22.5%, and 0.2% of belonging to the thin disk, thick disk, and halo Galactic populations, respectively. The spectral classification indices are consistent with a thin disk star of approximately solar composition (Burgasser et al. 2014) (classified “dM” based on ⇣ = 1.034 ± 0.018 ; L´epine et al. 2007). Classification as a metal-poor subdwarf is ruled out, and given the correlation between metallicity and kinematic properties for M-type stars (Savcheva et al. 2014), it is unlikely that W0720 belongs to either the thick disk or halo. Among 890 nearby solar-type stars from a chromospheric activity-velocity catalog (Jenkins et al. 2011), only 3 have Galactic velocity components within ±10 km s 1 of W0720’s velocity (HIP 51500, 63851, 117499), and all three are less chromospherically active than our Sun (log R’HK  -4.95) and have inferred chromospheric ages in the range 4-8 Gyr (Mamajek & Hillenbrand 2008). W0720’s velocity is similar to that of the Hercules dynamical stream, a kinematic group of stars of heterogenous ages and composition, likely perturbed to the solar circle from smaller Galactocentric radii due to dynamical interactions with the Galactic bar (Bensby et al. 2007). Based on its status as an old thin disk star, consideration of the ages of Sun-like stars of similar velocity, and the isochronal ages for other Hercules stream members (Bensby et al. 2014), we adopt an age for W0720 of 3-10 Gyr (2 range). Interpolating the mass-age estimates for the W0720 components from Burgasser et al. (2014) for solar composition, this age range maps to compo- nent masses of MA = 86 ± 2 MJup and MB = 65 ± 12 MJup (2 uncertainties). The hydrogen-burning mass limit for stars is near ⇠75 MJup (Saumon & Marley 2008; Dieterich et al. 2014), hence W0720A is probably a low-mass star, and W0720B is probably a brown dwarf. We integrated the orbit of W0720 and the Sun with a realistic Galactic gravitational potential using the NEMO Stellar Dynamics Toolbox (Teuben 1995; Barenfeld et al. 2013). With the current velocity data, we simulated 104 orbits of W0720 and the Sun, sam- pling the observed astrometric values and observational uncertainties for W0720 using Gaussian deviates. From these 104 simulations which take into account the observational uncertainties, we find that W0720 passed as close as = 0.252+0.111 0.068 pc (1 ; +0.317 0.110 pc 2 ) or 52.0+22.9 13.9 kAU (1 ; +65.5 22.7 kAU 2 ) of the Sun. The time of closest approach was 70.4+14.7 9.8 (1 ; +36.2 17.6 2 ) kya9 . Figure 1 shows the distributions of the closest approach separations and times for W0720 and the Sun for the 104 orbit simulations. The median nearest pass position from the simulations was (X, Y, Z) = (-0.122, +0.120, +0.185) pc (here quoted in a comoving frame centered on the solar system barycenter, where X is in the current direction of the Galactic center, Y is in the current direction of Galactic rotation, and Z is towards the current north Galactic pole), with approximate 1 uncertainties of ( X , Y , Z) = (0.047, 0.045, 0.068) pc, corresponding to celestial position (↵ICRS, ICRS ' 170 ± 29 , +68 ± 14 ; 1 unc.), in the vicinity of Ursa Major. As a check, we also calculated a linear trajectory that ignores the Galactic potential, finding that W0720’s closest approach was 70.7 kya at 0.25 parsec at a barycentric position in Galactic coordinates of (X, Y, Z = -0.125, +0.119, +0.185 pc). Note that given the short timespan, the predictions of the time and position of the W0720-Sun minimum pass from the linear trajectory agrees with the more accurate orbit integration to better than 2.5%. At its closest pass W0720 would have had proper motion exceeding any known star: 70” yr 1 (i.e. capable of traversing a full moon in 26 years; cf. the current highest proper motion star, Barnard’s star, with 10.300 yr 1 ). The predicted Galactic coordinates of the nearest pass of the binary system (`, b = 135 ± 15 , 47 ± 13 ) is near one of the two strong peaks in the longitude of aphelia distribution of new class I comets from the Oort Cloud (` = 135 ± 15 ) (Matese et al. 1999). However this appears to be coincidence, as any comets on eccentricity ⇠ 1 orbits from the vicinity of the nearest pass ⇠70 kya would have periods of ⇠4 Myr, and hence require ⇠2 Myr to reach the inner solar system. Also, the two primary peaks in the distribution of longitudes of aphelia for long-period comets are reasonably explained by the e↵ects of the solar motion and Galactic tide (Feng & Bailer-Jones 2014). Among 104 simulations, the nearest past separation between W0720 and the Sun was = 0.087 pc (18.0 kAU), and this was the only simulation that brought W0720 within the classical boundary of the dynamically active inner Oort Cloud (“Hills Cloud”) (Hills 1981; Weissman 1996) at a < 20 kAU. Approximately 79% of the simulations brought W0720 within 0.337 pc of the Sun, the previously closest estimated pass of a known star to the solar system (Gliese 710; 0.337 pc, 1.4 Myr in the future; Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. 2001). Approximately 99.96% of the simulated trajectories brought the star within the Sun’s tidal radius of 1.35 pc (Mamajek et al. 2013), and 98% of the simulated trajectories brought the star within the maximal range of semi-major axes for retrograde orbiting Oort Cloud comets (⇠120 kAU) (Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. 1999). The rarity of stellar passes with such a small impact parameter can be assessed from the analysis of Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. (2001). Extrapolating the power-law distribution of minimum separations versus cumulative number of encounters per 9 kya = thousand years ago.
  • 3. Oort Cloud Perturber 3 Myr from Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. (2001), one estimates that encounters by stellar systems within 0.25 pc of the Sun occur with a frequency of 0.11 Myr 1 or once every ⇠9.2 Myr. For comparison, flybys this close (0.25 pc) are statistically rare (⇠2.4%) among encounters by all stellar systems that penetrate the Sun’s tidal radius of ⇠1.35 pc (Mamajek et al. 2013), of which ⇠4.5 occur per Myr (Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. 2001). Figure 1. Lower left: Density plot of the distribution of mini- mum separations between W0720 and the Sun (in pc) versus time of minimum separation (in thousands of years ago; “kya”) for 104 Galactic orbit simulations. The maximum semi-major axis for ret- rograde orbiting Oort Cloud comets is ⇠0.58 pc (right blue solid line), and the dynamically active inner Oort Cloud is at <0.10 pc (left blue solid line). The entire region plotted is within the Sun’s tidal radius (⇠1.35 pc). Upper left: Histogram of simulated closest W0720-Sun separations (pc). Lower right: Histogram of simulated times of closest W0720-Sun separation (kya). The flyby’s gravitational interaction is in the regime where the Sun’s influence on the star’s trajectory (and vice versa) is negligible (Collins & Sari 2010): GM /bv2 ⇤ ' 10 5.6 << 1, where G is the Newtonian constant, M is the Sun’s mass, b is impact parameter (minimum Sun-star separation), and v⇤ is the velocity of the star with respect to the solar system barycenter. Major comet showers, where the flux of long-period comets increases by factors of >10 are likely limited to cases of high mass interlopers passing within ⇠10 kAU of the Sun (Heisler & Tremaine 1986), and are exceedingly rare (<10 3 Myr 1 ; extrapolating from results by Garc´ıa- S´anchez et al. 2001). A perturbed comet with new aphelion similar to that of the Sun-W0720 minimum separation, but with perihelion in the planetary region of the solar system, will have a ' 26 kAU and P ⇠ 4.2 Myr. Although comets throughout the Oort cloud may be perturbed by an interloper star onto trajectories that would bring them to the inner solar system (Weissman 1996), the highest density of outer Oort cloud comets should exist at smaller orbital distances (Heisler 1990), so most of the perturbed comets should originate from the vicinity of the star’s closest pass to the Sun. Hence, any enhancement on the long-period comet flux should become manifest ⇠2 Myr in the future. A proxy indica- tor of the encounter-induced flux of Oort Cloud comets is defined as = M⇤/v⇤b (Feng & Bailer-Jones 2014, using the variables as defined earlier, and with M⇤ being the mass of the interloper binary W0720). Using the 104 simulations, we estimate that the W0720 flyby induced ⇠ 10 7.48 ± 0.15(1 ) M km 1 s AU 1 . Simulations by Feng & Bailer-Jones (2014) suggest that encounters with < 10 5.3 are unlikely to generate an enhancement in the distribution of longitudes for long-period comets compared to that predicted to be generated by Galactic tidal e↵ects. All of the 104 simulated orbits had < 10 7.0 , hence the pass of the W0720 system should have a negligible statistical impact on the flux of long-period comets during the coming millenia. 3. THE CLOSEST KNOWN FLYBY? The proximity of W0720’s flyby to the solar system can be compared to those of Hipparcos stars recently stud- ied by Bailer-Jones (2014). He identified one star (HIP 85605) with a flyby closer than the median minimum sep- aration that we estimated for W0720 (0.25 pc), however two future flybys (HIP 89825 [Gl 710] and HIP 63721) both have ' 0.27 pc (0.27+0.17 0.17 pc and 0.27+0.40 0.23 pc, respectively; 90%CL). Bailer-Jones (2014) predicts that HIP 85605 will pass within = 0.10+0.10 0.06 pc (90% CL) of the Sun ⇠332 kyr in the future. Unfortunately, as Bailer-Jones (2014) points out, HIP 85605 is a visual bi- nary, and there is considerable dispersion in its published proper motions and its Hipparcos parallax is of low ac- curacy. The solution which brings HIP 85605 close to the Sun relies on the Tycho-2 proper motion (µ↵, µ = +4.0, -7.6 ± 2.0, 1.9 mas yr 1 ; Høg et al. 2000), the revised Hipparcos parallax of $ = 146.84 ± 29.81 mas, and the Pulkovo radial velocity of -21.0 ± 0.3 km/s (Gontcharov 2006, as reported in the XHIP compiled catalog; Ander- son & Francis (2012)). If any of these values are substan- tially in error, then the proximity of the flyby solution is likely to be spurious. Both the original and revised Hipparcos astrometric solutions (Perryman et al. 1997; van Leeuwen 2007) had much larger proper motions than the Tycho-2 solution. Bailer-Jones (2014) mentions that a reanalysis of the Hipparcos astrometric solution by F. van Leeuwen suggests “that the Hipparcos-2 parallax of Hip 85605 and its (relatively large) uncertainty are valid, but that on account of the large residuals and the complex nature of this system the solution should be treated with caution.” Unfortunately, the Hipparcos parallax for HIP 85605 leads to some astrophysical inconsistency. As Bailer- Jones (2014) note, HIP 85605’s B-V color (1.1 mag) is consistent with a K-type star, whereas the absolute mag- nitude calculated using its revised Hipparcos parallax (MV = 11.86 ± 0.45 mag) is more consistent with an M dwarf. We find that HIP 85605’s colors from Hipparcos and 2MASS (B-V = 1.10 ± 0.11, V-Ks ' 2.66 ± 0.07, J-H ' 0.53 ± 0.03, H-Ks ' 0.12 ± 0.03) are all consistent with a ⇠K4 dwarf (Pecaut & Mamajek 2013), in agreement with the spectral template fitting analysis of Pickles & Depagne (2010, ; which also yielded K4V). Dave Latham (priv. comm.) has visually confirmed that five spectra of HIP 85605 taken with the CfA Digital Speedometer
  • 4. 4 Mamajek et al. (as reported in Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. 1999) are indeed consistent with a typical K dwarf. As HIP 85605 is spec- trophotometrically a K dwarf, the Hipparcos-derived ab- solute magnitude (MV ' 11.9) places the star nearly 5 magnitudes fainter than the main sequence (MMS V ' 7.0) for a star of its color - too faint to be simply a metal- poor dwarf, yet too red and luminous for a white dwarf10 . Hence, most likely HIP 85605 is a ⇠K4V at d ' 60 pc and the Hipparcos parallax is erroneous. At d ' 60 pc, HIP 85605 has a slightly di↵erent velocity (U, V, W = -10.7, -14.3, -11.6 km s 1 ) compared to that used in the simu- lation by Bailer-Jones (2014), and its “flyby” of the Sun correspondingly moves further into the future and further away (⇠2.8 Myr in future, ⇠10 pc away). We conclude that HIP 85605 is unlikely to penetrate the Sun’s Oort Cloud, and that W0720 now appears to have the closest flyby of any known star. 4. DISCUSSION Given its current visual magnitude of V ' 18.3 (Ivanov et al. 2014), at its closest approach of ⇠0.25 pc, Scholz’s star (W0720) would have had an apparent magnitude of V ' 10.3, brighter than the current nearest star (Prox- ima; V = 11.2) but still much dimmer than the faintest naked eye stars (V ⇠ 6). However, W0720 is an ac- tive M dwarf star (Burgasser et al. 2014), and V -band flares have been observed to exceed 9 mag on timescales of minutes amongst such stars, and brief flares exceeding 12 mag may be possible (Schmidt et al. 2014). Flares amongst the coolest M dwarfs have been witnessed with energies of ⇠1034 ergs (Schmidt et al. 2014) and lumi- nosities of ⇠1029 -1030 erg s 1 . If W0720 experienced occasional flares similar to those of the active M8 star SDSS J022116.84+194020.4 (Schmidt et al. 2014), then the star may have been rarely visible with the naked eye from Earth (V < 6; V < 4) for minutes or hours dur- ing the flare events. Hence, while the binary system was too dim to see with the naked eye in its quiescent state during its flyby of the solar system ⇠70 kya, flares by the M9.5 primary may have provided visible short-lived transients visble to our ancestors. Improved astrometry for W0720 via ground-based telescopes (Dieterich et al. 2014) or Gaia (de Bruijne 2012), and further radial velocity monitoring, should help reduce the uncertainties in the flyby timing and mini- mum separation between Scholz’s star and the solar sys- tem. Past systematic searches for stars with close flybys to the solar system have been understandably focused on the Hipparcos astrometric catalog (Garc´ıa-S´anchez et al. 1999; Bailer-Jones 2014), however it contains rela- tively few M dwarfs relative to their cosmic abundance. Searches in the Gaia astrometric catalog for nearby M dwarfs with small proper motions and large parallaxes (i.e. with small tangential velocities) will likely yield ad- dition candidates. EEM acknowledges support from NSF grant AST- 1313029. AYK and PV acknowledge the support from the National Research Foundation (NRF) of South Africa. We thank Dave Latham, Alice Quillen, Kevin Luhman, Cameron Bell, Dave Cameron, Peter Teuben, Segev Ben-Zvi, Adam Burgasser, Ralf-Dieter Scholz, Matt Multunas, and Richard Sarkis for discussions. We thank the referee for a very timely and useful report. REFERENCES Anderson, E., & Francis, C. 2012, Astronomy Letters, 38, 331 Bailer-Jones, C. A. L. 2011, MNRAS, 416, 1163 Bailer-Jones, C. A. L. 2014, A&A, in press, arXiv:1412.3648 Barenfeld, S. A., Bubar, E. J., Mamajek, E. E., & Young, P. A. 2013, ApJ, 766, 6 Bensby, T., Feltzing, S., & Lundstr¨om, I. 2003, A&A, 410, 527 Bensby, T., Feltzing, S., & Oey, M. S. 2014, A&A, 562, A71 Bensby, T., Oey, M. S., Feltzing, S., & Gustafsson, B. 2007, ApJ, 655, L89 Biermann, L., Huebner, W. F., & Lust, R. 1983, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 80, 5151 Burgasser, A. 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