The Climate Crisis

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The document discusses the climate crisis and outlines several key points: 1) CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are rising, causing oceans to become more acidic which threatens marine ecosystems. 2) CO2 acts as a greenhouse gas, and human activity since the industrial revolution should have caused 0.7-0.9°C of global warming according to estimates of climate sensitivity. 3) Impacts of sea level rise include threatened small island nations and coastal areas, with estimates of rising sea levels ranging from 50-510 cm by 2100-2300 depending on emissions reductions.

Technology

The Climate Crisis Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Foto: S. Rahmstorf

Oceans are getting acidic ,[object Object],Plankton Korallenriffe

CO 2 is a Greenhouse Gas “ Climate Sensitivity” Arrhenius 1896 (4-6 ºC ) 3 ± 1 ºC Human-caused forcing until now should have caused 0,7 – 0,9 ºC warming

Global Temperature Global warming predicted (Sawyer, Nature 1972 , Broecker, Science 1975 )

Global Temperature in April 2010 1880-1920

Solar activit y We’re in the longest and deepest minimum of solar activity since at least 30 years.

The next 100 years A2 B1 A1FI High Emissions Lower Emissions

Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year 0 2 4 6 8 10 Ice Area (Sept. minimum), millions of km 2 Observations IPCC models Model range 2009?

Sea Level Rise Tide Gauges Gauges: Church & White Satellite: Cazenave et al. Sizewell B nuclear power station, Great Britain 20 cm rise since 1880

Melting corresponds to 7 m global sea level rise! Greenland

Recent Sea Level Estimates Delta Comm. WBGU Data Data: Church and White (2006) Scenarios 2100: 50 – 140 cm (Rahmstorf 2007) 55 – 110 cm (“high end”, Delta Commission 2008) Scenarios 2200: 150 – 350 cm (“high end”, Delta Commission 2008) Scenarios 2300: 250 – 510 cm (German Advisory Council on Global Change, WBGU, 2006) Rahmstorf

Impacts of sea level rise Han, main island of Carteret-Atoll Tuvalu Birma, Typhoon Nargis (2008)

The 2 ºC Guardrail A2 B1 A1FI 2 ºC limit

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Thank you for listening! Foto: S. Rahmstorf

This document summarizes research on modeling the "warm Arctic, cold Siberia" pattern under climate change. It finds that declining Arctic sea ice, especially sea ice thickness, reinforces warming over the Arctic and cooling over Siberia. The strength of this pattern also depends on the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation. Specifically, declining sea ice leads to a stronger Siberian high pressure system and increased chances of cold extremes in Eurasia during the easterly QBO phase. Future projections using an ensemble of climate models suggest that both declining sea ice and rising greenhouse gases will continue intensifying the warm Arctic-cold Siberia pattern through the 21st century.

Communicating Arctic climate change through data-driven stories

Zachary Labe

The Pan-Arctic Impacts of Thinning Sea Ice

Zachary Labe

The Arctic is rapidly changing. However, long-term observations of trends in Arctic sea-ice thickness are still quite limited. In this presentation, Zachary will discuss the different methods (satellite instruments and climate model simulations) of observing sea-ice thickness in order to understand changes in the recent Arctic amplification era. He will also highlight the far-reaching environmental and societal impacts from a thinning Arctic sea-ice cover.

Linking the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Projected Arctic Sea-Ice Loss to S...

Zachary Labe

This document summarizes a study examining how the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) can modulate the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. The study uses the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to simulate different phases of the QBO and responses to historical and future sea ice conditions. It finds that a weaker early winter polar vortex occurs during the QBO's easterly phase, leading to constructive wave interference. A North Atlantic Oscillation-like response is seen in the QBO's westerly phase, while Siberian cold extremes occur in the easterly phase. The results suggest the QBO can influence both stratospheric and tropospheric/surface responses through the Holton-

Anastasios Tsiolakidis

The document discusses tipping points and thresholds for climate change based on levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere. It states that 450ppm of CO2 may already be triggering an ice-free Earth and that 385ppm could cause sea level rise of several meters and loss of alpine ice. To limit warming to 1-2°C, CO2 levels need to be reduced to 325-355ppm or even lower to 300-325ppm to restore sea ice levels from 25 years ago. Methods to draw down CO2 such as reforestation can help undo damage from deforestation but reducing CO2 by 50ppm would cost an estimated $20 trillion. Climate variability makes determining tip

Trends and regional variability of observed Arctic sea-ice thickness

Zachary Labe

Communicating Arctic climate change through data-driven stories

Zachary Labe

Media Workshop - Introduction to Climate Science: Basic Issues in Climate Sci...

ipcc-media

The document summarizes evidence of climate change from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations to rising global temperatures. It notes that carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide levels in the atmosphere are unprecedented over the last 800,000 years. Multiple lines of evidence show a clear warming trend, including rising temperatures in the atmosphere and oceans, melting ice and snow, and sea level rise. Human influence on the climate system through greenhouse gas emissions is evident. Limiting climate change will require substantial reductions in emissions.

This document summarizes research on the influence of Arctic sea ice thickness variability on atmospheric responses to projected sea ice loss. The research found that (1) sea ice thickness spatial and temporal variability is projected to decrease due to future thinning, (2) loss of sea ice thickness enhances Arctic warming and shifts the polar jet stream equatorward, and (3) the atmospheric response depends on where sea ice thickness anomalies are located. The research analyzed sea ice thickness from PIOMAS and conducted sea ice thickness perturbation experiments using the LENS climate model.

Arctic climate change through the lens of data visualization

Zachary Labe

The document discusses climate change in the Arctic through data visualization. It notes that Arctic temperatures are rising more than 3 times faster than the global average. Sea ice extent is declining at a rate of nearly 0.8 million km2 per decade. Future projections show continued sea ice loss and Arctic warming, which could influence weather patterns in mid-latitudes through impacts on jet streams and storm tracks. Improved understanding of these connections and their dependence on factors like the quasi-biennial oscillation could help constrain predictions. Data visualization is presented as an important tool for communicating climate science.

Climate Change in the Arctic

Zachary Labe

The document discusses climate change in the Arctic. It notes that the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe, with sea ice extent and thickness declining significantly. Climate models project that Arctic warming and sea ice loss will continue through the 21st century. Improving observations and models can help reduce uncertainties about future climate impacts in the Arctic and how changes may influence remote weather patterns. Action is needed to reduce emissions and limit global temperature rise in order to prevent the worst effects of climate change in the Arctic.

Using data visualization for effective science (communication)

Zachary Labe

This document discusses the effective use of data visualization for science communication. It provides examples of climate change visualizations, such as Ed Hawkins' striking strip plot of global temperature anomalies over time. The document emphasizes telling stories with data and using best practices for accessibility. It also advocates for open science through sharing code, data, and growing software tools to enable transparency and reproducibility in climate research.

What do we know, according to IPCC (WG II)?

Andy Dabydeen

The document discusses the impacts of climate change on water resources and sea level rise. It is very likely that the Atlantic Ocean's meridional overturning circulation will slow down during the 21st century, causing regional temperature increases despite this change. Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. With a 1-meter and 8-meter sea level rise, large areas of Belgium would be flooded, affecting 63,000 hectares and 3,700 square kilometers respectively. Climate change poses risks from extreme events, impacts on threatened systems, distribution of impacts, aggregate impacts, and large-scale discontinuities. Vulnerability depends on development paths and can be reduced through sustainable development and mitigation efforts.

Science since the IPCC 4th assessment report - Prof. Ray Bates - EPA CC Conf...

Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland

The document summarizes evidence of climate change from various scientific studies including: 1) Increasing carbon dioxide and global temperatures over the past century. 2) Considerable mass loss and reductions in glaciers worldwide, including a 50% loss of glaciers in European Alps between 1850-1980. 3) Sea level rise of 20cm over the past century and currently rising at 3.2mm/yr. 4) Climate models project that temperature and sea level rise will continue to accelerate if emissions are not reduced.

Ccss j merrill_overview-1

riseagrant

The document summarizes evidence of climate change from various scientific records and climate modeling. It discusses how ice core records show a link between atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature over the past 450,000 years. It also notes that recent greenhouse gas levels far exceed those of the past. Climate models simulate past warming accurately when including human factors like increased greenhouse gases. The models predict continued accelerated warming this century if emissions are not reduced substantially. Observations also show impacts of warming already, such as sea ice and glacier melting, more extreme weather, and sea level rise.

Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Imlications for Jamaica

ipcc-media

1) Jamaica and the Caribbean region have already experienced warming of 0.8 degrees Celsius between 1901 and 2012 according to IPCC data, with most months in the last two years being recorded as the warmest. 2) Climate change is projected to increase rainfall in Jamaica by up to 40% by 2050 and increase sea levels in the Caribbean by about 12 cm between 1993 and 2014 according to satellite data. 3) These changes threaten Jamaica with loss of livelihoods, settlements, infrastructure and ecosystem services as well as declining coral reef and agricultural yields, according to the IPCC and Jamaican climate experts.

Rising Seas & Solutions

Paul H. Carr

The year 2014 tied with 2010 as the warmest year on record for the last century. The melting of Greenland, mountain glaciers, and thermal expansion is raising sea levels four times faster than in 1900. Sea level rises of 2 to 6 feet are predicted by the end of the century. Flood highs from hurricanes Sandy and Katrina were ~ 10 feet. The article “Treading Water” in the February 2015 "National Geographic" tells how Dutch Docklands LLC sees profit not loss from rising sea levels. They are building floating homes in Miami, FL. A floating classroom could assure ASPEC’s long-term future. It would provide a place to meet in the event of flooding by the 10-foot ocean surges that accompany hurricanes. Dr. Carr describes how increasing greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, trap the radiation that is warming our planet. Advances in non-carbon emitting energy sources can reduce global warming. Solar PV panels are now generating electricity at $0.07/kWhr, less than the national utility average of $0.12kWhr. Rising sea levels are a better measure of global warming than atmospheric temperature, as 90% of our planet’s heat content is in our oceans. You can learn more at www.RiskyBusiness.org.

Climate Change - How We Know What We Know

Michael DeLapa

Interaction of climate and wind power

Peter Kalverla

Incoming solar rediation imbalance

Shubham Pachpor

The document discusses monitoring Earth's energy imbalance (EEI), which is the difference between the amount of solar energy absorbed by Earth and the amount radiated back to space. Positive EEI means future warming, while negative EEI means future cooling. It outlines several approaches to monitoring EEI, but notes challenges, and recommends sustained ocean observations from programs like Argo to improve EEI estimates over time. Combining multiple measurements in an optimal way holds promise for assessing climate change status and testing mitigation effectiveness.

Key findings of AR5 for the Carribean region

ipcc-media

The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report regarding climate change impacts in the Caribbean region. It finds that surface temperatures have warmed 0.8 degrees Celsius since 1901 and are projected to increase up to 3 degrees by 2100 depending on emissions levels. Sea levels in the Caribbean have risen 2.7 mm per year and mean sea surface height has increased 12 cm from 1993-2014. These changes threaten coastal flooding and erosion, loss of coral reefs, and increased infectious diseases. Adaptation measures discussed include improving infrastructure, restoring forests and wetlands, and reducing disease vectors.

Cosmic and Solar Influences on Climate

Francis MASSEN

This document discusses topics related to climate change that are beyond the consensus views of the IPCC. It references research showing that factors like cosmic rays, solar activity, UV radiation, albedo, and cloud cover may have significant influences on the climate that are not fully captured by climate models. It notes that the IPCC consensus may overestimate climate sensitivity to factors like CO2 and underestimate the impacts and understanding of other natural climate drivers. Several experts and studies are cited that question the reliability of climate models and the extent to which observed warming can be attributed to human greenhouse gas emissions.

Keppler, Lydia: Reconstructing sub-surface Dissolved Inorganic Carbon from ob...

Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS)

1) The document reconstructs sparse dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) observations in the Southern Ocean using a neural network mapping method. 2) The mean amplitude of the surface seasonal cycle in DIC is estimated to be 13 μmol/kg, with maxima occurring in austral spring and minima in austral autumn. 3) Estimates of net community production in summer indicate a drawdown of 1.3±0.9 petagrams of carbon, with most removal occurring north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. 4) Preliminary results suggest inter-annual variability in DIC is dominated by an anthropogenic trend, strongest in ocean uptake regions between 35-55°S.

Climate Change - Ranyl Rhydwen (Nov. 2009)

calea68

A hard-hitting lecture by Ranyl Rhydwen at the Centre for Alternative Technology in Wales - really 3 lectures crammed into one - explaining how our climate works, what the current science is saying about climate change, and thoughts on what to do about it. A very good, and important talk to listen to. Recorded November 2009, a month before the COP-15 Climate Conference in Copenhagen. Please note this lecture is copyright Centre for Alternative Technology (http://www.cat.org.uk)

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Effects on the Carbon Cycle and A...

Andreas Schmittner

1) Ice core data suggests that reductions in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are associated with increases in atmospheric CO2, as a weaker AMOC reduces the biological pump's ability to sequester carbon in the deep ocean. 2) Early modeling studies showed reductions in the AMOC decrease ocean and land carbon storage, leading to higher atmospheric CO2 levels. 3) More recent models simulate the millennial-scale changes in CO2 observed in ice cores by linking variations in the AMOC to changes in the preformed nutrient inventory and efficiency of the biological pump in sequestering carbon.

Incorporating Environmental Variability into the Management of a Large Marine...

Iwl Pcu

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change is Real and Here!

Andy Dabydeen

Oceanographic Changes

ipcc-media

Sea level CO2

Loretta Roberson

The document discusses the consequences of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) levels and rising sea levels. It notes that global temperatures have risen 0.6°C over the past 150 years and are predicted to increase 1.5-5.8°C by 2100, and that sea levels have risen by about 120 meters in the last 20,000 years and 1-2 mm per year in the last century, with predictions of a 0.13-0.94 meter rise by 2100. Higher CO2 levels will also likely lead to changes in precipitation patterns and more intense rainfall, and have consequences for marine processes and organisms.

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SiS Climate Change The Latest News Holper 2007

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The document summarizes key findings from climate change science and projections for Australia. It discusses how carbon dioxide concentrations are unprecedented over the past 650,000 years and global temperatures have increased 0.7 degrees Celsius in the past 100 years. Projections indicate Australia will continue warming in the coming decades, with more hot days and fewer cold nights, and rainfall patterns will change. This will increase risks like more severe fires, floods and droughts. The document calls for action to both adapt to impacts and lower emissions to mitigate further climate change.

Stamford Raffles Lecture 2013

zslslides

Professor Brian Hoskins discusses the risks of climate change from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. By emitting these gases, humanity is performing a "very dangerous experiment" with the planet. The climate is already warming, with multiple lines of evidence showing impacts. Models project further warming this century of 2-4°C depending on emissions. Deep cuts in emissions are needed globally by 2050 to limit risks. The UK has a target of an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050, but meeting targets will be challenging and require changes across society.

Human Influence on Global Climate

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Climate Change Science Since 2007

djhspence

Recent research since the 2007 IPCC report shows that climate change is accelerating more rapidly than previously projected in many areas. Key findings include more rapid melting of Arctic sea ice, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, faster sea level rise, and increasing ocean temperatures and acidification. Atmospheric CO2 and methane levels continue to rise sharply. While natural solar variability may have a small temporary cooling influence currently, the overall impacts of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions on global warming are clear and intensifying.

Global warming

mausamviki4all

The document discusses the history of Earth's climate and temperature changes over billions of years. It notes that the planet has experienced natural warming and cooling cycles in the past related to variations in orbital parameters and greenhouse gas levels. Recent warming starting in the late 19th century is outlined, with data showing temperatures rising about 0.8°C over the last century. Potential impacts of continued warming are reviewed, such as sea level rise, melting glaciers and ice sheets, and more intense hurricanes. Projections for future temperature increases this century range from 1.5°C to over 9°C depending on levels of greenhouse gas emissions.

Contemporary evidence of climate change

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Climate Change Science Since 2007

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The document discusses the impacts of climate change, including sea level rise negatively impacting the Nile Delta region in Egypt through flooding, destruction of protective sand bars, loss of agricultural land and saline contamination of groundwater. It also notes that sea level rise is accelerating and discusses potential releases of methane from thawing permafrost and clathrates that could further accelerate warming. Stabilizing temperature rise below 2°C will be an unprecedented technological, political and social challenge requiring emissions to peak by 2020-2030 and reductions of 60-80% below 1990 levels.

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Children's_environmental_health_climate-change

guest66dc5f

The document discusses the risks of climate change, especially for small island states. It outlines that greenhouse gas concentrations are rising and global temperatures have increased over the past century. Small island states face risks from sea level rise such as coastal flooding, damage to infrastructure, and salination of freshwater supplies. Climate change can also exacerbate health issues like temperature-related illness, diseases spread by food and water, and vector-borne diseases. The document calls for health ministries to assess climate change risks and work with other agencies to implement adaptation strategies.

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Carbon Dioxide; What is Earth's Point of No Return?

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- The Earth is rapidly transitioning to a new climate state driven by human-caused increases in greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide. - Actions taken in the first half of the 21st century will determine the planet's climate for the next thousand years. - If carbon dioxide levels rise too high, it could trigger large and irreversible changes to the climate system with severe environmental and economic consequences. Prudence suggests taking action to limit CO2 increases before reaching a "point of no return".

Climppf1

Alok Arunam

The document discusses the topic of climate change, past, present, and future. It provides an overview of the factors that control climate, including land surface properties, oceans, greenhouse gases, and solar radiation. It describes how the climate has varied in the past due to natural factors like variations in Earth's orbit and composition of the atmosphere. It then discusses evidence that warming trends over the last few decades are likely due to human activities like fossil fuel burning. Models predict that future climate change may have significant impacts.

Are we warming our planet? Evidence from an undersampled ocean [Prof Toby She...

University of the Highlands and Islands

The physical chemistry of the atmosphere, and the relation between Greenhouse gas concentration and temperature, are well understood and have been since the 19th century, although our understanding of the role of water vapour is far from perfect. A large part of the global warming of the Earth's surface takes place in the ocean, which covers 70% of the globe and is the main source of water vapour. Reliable measurements of sea surface temperature from ships started in 1853 and are now continued with drifting buoys that can profile down to 1000 m. Although these observations are sparse compared with the size of the ocean, they nevertheless all reveal a consistent rise in ocean temperature that translates into a slow rise in sea level due to thermal expansion. SAMS is one of an international group of laboratories surrounding the north Atlantic that monitor the global ocean circulation. We have seen a rapid rise in temperature west of Scotland that can be attributed in part to global warming, but also to changes in circulation patterns of the Atlantic. Modern tools, such as remotely operated marine gliders that can dive to 1000 m, are changing the way we make observations and will enable us to improve our understanding of the way in which the ocean circulation behaves over long periods of time. [Presentation at the UHI Climate Change Summit 2010 by Toby Sherwin, Toby Sherwin, Professor of Oceanography, Scottish Association of Marine Science (SAMS) UHI]

Global Warming

Aniket Motale

The document discusses the history of Earth's climate and temperature changes over billions of years. It notes that the planet has experienced natural warming and cooling cycles in the past related to factors like carbon dioxide levels, solar activity, and orbital variations. More recently, evidence suggests global temperatures have risen sharply since the late 19th century, corresponding to increased industrial carbon emissions. The text explores potential impacts of continued warming, such as rising sea levels, stronger hurricanes, and effects on wildlife.

ITU_JTF_Madrid 2013_INTRO_ C BARNES_V2.ppt

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The document discusses the objectives and activities of the Joint Task Force (JTF) established in 2012 by the ITU, WMO, and IOC to examine using submarine telecommunication cables for ocean and climate monitoring. The JTF is exploring establishing a global network of mini-observatories along cables to measure temperatures, pressures, and other data to study climate change, ocean health, and improve tsunami warning systems. Current plans include developing a pilot project with cable industry partners and researchers. The JTF aims to address the urgent need for more ocean observations through this innovative dual-use of existing infrastructure.

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