Arctic climate change through the lens of data visualization
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The document discusses climate change in the Arctic through data visualization. It notes that Arctic temperatures are rising more than 3 times faster than the global average. Sea ice extent is declining at a rate of nearly 0.8 million km2 per decade. Future projections show continued sea ice loss and Arctic warming, which could influence weather patterns in mid-latitudes through impacts on jet streams and storm tracks. Improved understanding of these connections and their dependence on factors like the quasi-biennial oscillation could help constrain predictions. Data visualization is presented as an important tool for communicating climate science.
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Arctic climate change through the lens of data visualization
- 1. Arctic climate change through the lens of data visualization @ZLabe Zachary Labe Postdoc at Colorado State University 31 January 2022 NC State University Climate Change & Society
- 2. ZACHARY LABE Climate Scientist at Colorado State University zmlabe@rams.colostate.edu RESEARCHER Climate signal vs. weather noise @ZLabe COMMUNICATOR RESEARCHER Arctic climate change STORYTELLER Simple, bold data visualization
- 6. Polar Amplification: acceleration of warming in high latitudes relative to the rest of the globe
- 7. The Arctic.
- 8. The Arctic.
- 10. WHY? Sea ice extent is dropping at a rate of nearly 0.8 million km2/decade Temperatures rising >3x as fast as the globally averaged mean
- 14. Polar Amplification: acceleration of warming in high latitudes relative to the rest of the globe
- 15. Observing ice.
- 16. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
- 17. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
- 18. [ SIT ] Sea Ice Thickness Depth between sea surface and ice/snow layer [ SIC ] Sea Ice Concentration Fraction (%) of seawater covered by ice Snow Ice [ SIE ] Sea Ice Extent Area of seawater covered by any amount of ice (>15%)
- 22. 1920-1962 1980-1997 1998-2015 2006-2042 1963-2005 2043-2080 LENS LABE ET AL. 2018, JCLI Historical Record Future Projections A CLIMATE MODEL
- 23. Changing Sea Ice Thickness MELIA ET AL., 2016 “Sea ice Decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes” PIZZOLATO ET AL., 2016 “The influence of declining sea ice on shipping activity in the Canadian Arctic” POST ET AL., 2013 “Ecological consequences of sea-ice decline” LANG ET AL., 2016 “Sea ice thickness and recent Arctic warming”
- 24. Modeling vs. Field Work
- 25. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017
- 28. Snow pits
- 32. WHY? How does Arctic amplification influence extreme weather events? Has it? Will it? Can it? Necessary to understand mechanisms of Arctic climate variability before assessing future local/remote responses Barnes and Screen [2015]
- 33. 7 Feb. 2010
- 35. Vihma, 2014
- 36. Cohen et al. 2014
- 37. Barnes and Screen, 2015
- 38. Overland et al. 2016
- 39. Francis, 2017
- 40. Francis et al. 2017
- 41. Screen et al. 2018
- 42. CLIVAR Working Group, 2018
- 43. Screen et al. 2018
- 44. Vavrus, 2018
- 45. Coumou et al. 2018
- 46. Smith et al. 2019
- 47. Cohen et al. 2020
- 48. [Newson, 1973; Nature] “…great warming of the lower layers of the troposphere over the Arctic basin... In fact, there is a lowering of mid-latitude continental temperatures near the surface”
- 53. Why? What is the perturbation?
- 54. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017
- 55. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017 Turbulent heat fluxes [ SIC ]
- 56. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017 Turbulent heat fluxes [ SIC + SIT ]
- 57. Future Arctic How does sea-ice thickness decline influence the large- scale atmospheric response? Significant thermodynamic response over Arctic Ocean Poleward weakening of jet LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL
- 58. Future Arctic Significant thermodynamic response over Arctic Ocean Poleward weakening of jet LABE ET AL. 2018, GRL How does sea-ice thickness decline influence the large- scale atmospheric response?
- 59. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss [adapted from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences] Polar Vortex
- 60. Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) - alternating easterly and westerly winds in the tropical middle atmosphere Northern Hemisphere polar vortex weakens due to Arctic sea ice loss during easterly QBO (QBO-E) winters Weaker polar vortex results in more frequent and intense cold outbreaks in Eurasia Easterly Westerly QBO AFFECTS ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO ARCTIC SEA-ICE DECLINE LABE ET AL. 2019, GRL
- 61. Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) - alternating easterly and westerly winds in the tropical middle atmosphere Northern Hemisphere polar vortex weakens due to Arctic sea ice loss during easterly QBO (QBO-E) winters Weaker polar vortex results in more frequent and intense cold outbreaks in Eurasia Easterly Westerly QBO AFFECTS ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO ARCTIC SEA-ICE DECLINE LABE ET AL. 2019, GRL
- 62. Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) - alternating easterly and westerly winds in the tropical middle atmosphere Northern Hemisphere polar vortex weakens due to Arctic sea ice loss during easterly QBO (QBO-E) winters Weaker polar vortex results in more frequent and intense cold outbreaks in Eurasia Easterly Westerly QBO AFFECTS ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO ARCTIC SEA-ICE DECLINE LABE ET AL. 2019, GRL Colder Warmer
- 66. WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF SEA-ICE LOSS RELATIVE TO ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION?
- 67. Arctic 45°N Arctic 45°N Arctic 45°N Sea-ice loss Arctic amplification LABE ET AL. 2020, GRL
- 69. Arctic amplification > sea-ice loss LABE ET AL. 2020, GRL
- 71. DATA VISUALIZATION IS STORY-TELLING. Arctic temperature anomalies from 1950 to 2021
- 72. PLOT BY ED HAWKINS
- 73. 2016 RIO OLYMPICS OPENING CEREMONY
- 75. PLOT BY ED HAWKINS
- 76. DON’T BE SUCH A SCIENTIST WE ARE DATA SCIENTISTS ART BY JILL PELTO
- 77. Landscape of Change uses data about sea level rise, glacier volume decline, increasing global temperatures, and the increasing use of fossil fuels. These data lines compose a landscape shaped by the changing climate, a world in which we are now living. Jill Pelto|http://www.jillpelto.com/landscape-of-change “ ”
- 78. THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING IN REAL-TIME. Considering a global view of temperatures relative to average – placing weather in the context of climate
- 79. THE ARCTIC IS CHANGING IN REAL-TIME. Daily Arctic temperature in 2018 (red) compared to every year since 1958 in the month of February. Average is shown by the white line.
- 80. THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO COMMUNICATE
- 82. 2016 Average
- 86. Looking ahead.
- 87. Crystal Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016 We need scientists. We need educators. We need innovators. We need communicators.
- 88. October-November – Relative to the years of 1951-1980 Our planet without change…
- 90. KEY POINTS Zachary Labe zmlabe@rams.colostate.edu @ZLabe Climate change has already emerged in the Arctic. Improvements to observations and models will reduce uncertainty in future climate projections. We can still prevent the worst of the impacts in the Arctic.