As the Navy prepares a new force structure assessment, CBO has examined three kinds of risks to the Navy’s plan to build a 355-ship fleet. Those risks arise from budgetary pressure, growth in the costs of building new ships, and uncertainty about the design of future ships. CBO has also provided some illustrations of alternative approaches to building the Navy’s amphibious warfare and surface combatant forces.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2021 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, to the Bank of America 2022 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Under the Budget Control Act, funding for naval ship construction has increased significantly above historical averages. In December 2016, the Navy released a new force structure assessment that called for building a 355-ship fleet. CBO estimates that construction costs for the Navy’s 2019 shipbuilding plan would average $28.9 billion (in 2018 dollars) per year over the next 30 years, which is 80 percent more than what the Navy has spent, on average, over the past 30 years. With service life extensions of existing ships, that plan would achieve a fleet of 355 ships by the 2030s.
Presentation by Eric Labs, a senior analyst for naval forces and weapons in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Surface Navy Association’s 31st National Symposium.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2021 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, to the Bank of America 2022 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Under the Budget Control Act, funding for naval ship construction has increased significantly above historical averages. In December 2016, the Navy released a new force structure assessment that called for building a 355-ship fleet. CBO estimates that construction costs for the Navy’s 2019 shipbuilding plan would average $28.9 billion (in 2018 dollars) per year over the next 30 years, which is 80 percent more than what the Navy has spent, on average, over the past 30 years. With service life extensions of existing ships, that plan would achieve a fleet of 355 ships by the 2030s.
Presentation by Eric Labs, a senior analyst for naval forces and weapons in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Surface Navy Association’s 31st National Symposium.
Presentation by R. Derek Trunkey and Eric J. Labs, analysts in CBO's National Security Division, at the Annual Conference of the Western Economic Association International.
Presentation by Eric Labs, CBO’s Senior Analyst for Naval Forces and Weapons, at the 2017 Defense Outlook Forum.
Over the next 30 years, the Navy’s 2017 shipbuilding plan would cost 30 percent more than the service has received historically, CBO estimates. If future Navy shipbuilding budgets are in line with those over the past 30 years, the Navy’s fleet will be about 20 percent smaller in 2046 than under the Navy’s plan. A larger fleet of around 350 ships could cost about 60 percent more per year than average historical shipbuilding budgets.
Under the Budget Control Act, funding for naval ship construction has increased significantly above historical averages. In December 2016, the Navy released a new force structure assessment that called for building a 355-ship fleet. CBO estimates that construction costs for the Navy’s 2019 shipbuilding plan would average $28.9 billion (in 2018 dollars) per year over the next 30 years, which is 80 percent more than what the Navy has spent, on average, over the past 30 years. With service life extensions of existing ships, that plan would achieve a fleet of 355 ships by the 2030s.
Presentation by Eric Labs, a senior analyst for naval forces and weapons in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Defense Outlook Forum.
CBO estimates that the Navy’s 2020 shipbuilding plan would cost an average of $31 billion per year (in 2019 dollars) over 30 years. Under the plan, the fleet would grow from 290 ships today to the Navy’s overall goal of 355 in 2034 but would fall short of the Navy’s specific goals for some types of ships. In particular, the Navy’s plan would increase the amphibious warfare force from the current 32 ships to a high of 38 ships by 2026. A larger fleet would lead to higher operation and support costs.
United States Coast Guard icebreaker program_seminar 2018Business Finland
Maritime Business Day seminar in Helsinki 30.1.2018_Presentation by Ulla Lainio, Arctic Maritime & Offshore from Finland Program Director, Business Finland
An Apple to-Apple Basis Comparison, One Jones Act unit vs one Foreign Flag un...GE 94
In the paper we have underscored that timing , not just policies are determining winners and losers in this energy and shipping trade (both international and U.S Flagged).
Oftentimes, a lot of folks talk about trade regulations but at the end it’s always policies within the economics context that drives up all those numbers in the real world.
-Simon Jacques
Cogliolo Andrea - Innovation & Research - RINAWEC Italia
Slides presentate a Roma il 25 febbraio 2014 in occasione del Workshop "Il GNL è per tutti. Le prospettive di utilizzo del metano liquido per i service vessels, i traghetti a corto raggio e le marinerie minori" promosso da @ConferenzaGNL, un progetto a cura di Symposia e WEC Italia - TWITTER #GNL
“Envision, create, and believe in your own universe, and the universe will form around you.” ~ Tony Hsieh
“The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.” ~ Steve Jobs
“To win big, you sometimes have to take big risk.” ~ Bill Gates
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America 2024 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Presentation by R. Derek Trunkey and Eric J. Labs, analysts in CBO's National Security Division, at the Annual Conference of the Western Economic Association International.
Presentation by Eric Labs, CBO’s Senior Analyst for Naval Forces and Weapons, at the 2017 Defense Outlook Forum.
Over the next 30 years, the Navy’s 2017 shipbuilding plan would cost 30 percent more than the service has received historically, CBO estimates. If future Navy shipbuilding budgets are in line with those over the past 30 years, the Navy’s fleet will be about 20 percent smaller in 2046 than under the Navy’s plan. A larger fleet of around 350 ships could cost about 60 percent more per year than average historical shipbuilding budgets.
Under the Budget Control Act, funding for naval ship construction has increased significantly above historical averages. In December 2016, the Navy released a new force structure assessment that called for building a 355-ship fleet. CBO estimates that construction costs for the Navy’s 2019 shipbuilding plan would average $28.9 billion (in 2018 dollars) per year over the next 30 years, which is 80 percent more than what the Navy has spent, on average, over the past 30 years. With service life extensions of existing ships, that plan would achieve a fleet of 355 ships by the 2030s.
Presentation by Eric Labs, a senior analyst for naval forces and weapons in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Defense Outlook Forum.
CBO estimates that the Navy’s 2020 shipbuilding plan would cost an average of $31 billion per year (in 2019 dollars) over 30 years. Under the plan, the fleet would grow from 290 ships today to the Navy’s overall goal of 355 in 2034 but would fall short of the Navy’s specific goals for some types of ships. In particular, the Navy’s plan would increase the amphibious warfare force from the current 32 ships to a high of 38 ships by 2026. A larger fleet would lead to higher operation and support costs.
United States Coast Guard icebreaker program_seminar 2018Business Finland
Maritime Business Day seminar in Helsinki 30.1.2018_Presentation by Ulla Lainio, Arctic Maritime & Offshore from Finland Program Director, Business Finland
An Apple to-Apple Basis Comparison, One Jones Act unit vs one Foreign Flag un...GE 94
In the paper we have underscored that timing , not just policies are determining winners and losers in this energy and shipping trade (both international and U.S Flagged).
Oftentimes, a lot of folks talk about trade regulations but at the end it’s always policies within the economics context that drives up all those numbers in the real world.
-Simon Jacques
Cogliolo Andrea - Innovation & Research - RINAWEC Italia
Slides presentate a Roma il 25 febbraio 2014 in occasione del Workshop "Il GNL è per tutti. Le prospettive di utilizzo del metano liquido per i service vessels, i traghetti a corto raggio e le marinerie minori" promosso da @ConferenzaGNL, un progetto a cura di Symposia e WEC Italia - TWITTER #GNL
“Envision, create, and believe in your own universe, and the universe will form around you.” ~ Tony Hsieh
“The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.” ~ Steve Jobs
“To win big, you sometimes have to take big risk.” ~ Bill Gates
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America 2024 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Surface Navy Association’s 35th National Symposium.
The Navy’s shipbuilding plan for fiscal year 2023 presents three alternatives that call for a much larger fleet of manned ships and an undetermined number of unmanned systems. CBO examines the plan’s implications for the potential size, composition, cost, and capabilities of the fleet. The agency also compares the three alternatives with other recent shipbuilding plans and analyses by the Navy.
Presentation by Eric Labs, CBO’s Senior Analyst for Naval Forces and Weapons, at the 2016 Defense Outlook Forum.
Over the next 30 years, the Navy’s 2016 shipbuilding plan will cost one-third more than the service has received historically, CBO estimates. In particular, cost growth in lead ships (and its effect on subsequent ships) drives up the cost of the Navy’s shipbuilding program. If future Navy shipbuilding budgets are in line with those over the past 30 years, the Navy’s fleet will be about 20 percent smaller in 2045 than under the Navy’s plan.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the National Defense Industrial Association’s 25th Annual Expeditionary Warfare Conference.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America 2023 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
In December 2016, the Navy released a new force structure assessment that called for building a 355-ship fleet. CBO estimates that construction costs for a fleet of 355 ships would average $26.6 billion (in 2017 dollars) per year over the next 30 years, which is 60 percent more than what the Navy has spent on average over the past 30 years. A larger fleet will also lead to greater operation and support costs.
Presentation by Eric Labs, CBO’s Senior Analyst for Naval Forces and Weapons, at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Defense Outlook Forum.
The Department of the Navy, which includes the Navy and the Marine Corps, currently has an aviation fleet of about 4,000 aircraft. The average budgets for procuring aircraft were about 60 percent greater from 2010 through 2019 ($14 billion) than they were from 2000 through 2009 ($9 billion).
CBO projects that the costs of replacing aircraft in the current fleet would average about $12 billion from 2020 to 2050. However, purchases over that period would go through several different phases and experience year-to-year variations similar to those observed in the 2000s and 2010s.
Recently, several Navy attack submarines have been delayed in receiving maintenance at public shipyards. As a result, they have missed deployments or had shortened deployments. CBO was asked by the House Armed Services Committee to compare the maintenance costs at public and private shipyards.
CBO’s analysis focused on the most common type of overhaul, the Docking Selected Restricted Availability (DSRA), for SSN-688 class submarines. CBO found that no matter which method it used to calculate costs, private shipyards were less expensive, on average, than public shipyards for DSRA overhauls. The methodology and findings in this slide deck will be more thoroughly documented in a forthcoming CBO report.
42420, 5(42 PMEagle vs Dragon How the U.S. and Chinese Navi.docxblondellchancy
4/24/20, 5(42 PMEagle vs Dragon: How the U.S. and Chinese Navies Stack Up
Page 1 of 13https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2020/3/9/eagle-vs-dragon-how-the-us-and-chinese-navies-stack-up
Eagle vs Dragon: How the U.S. and Chinese
Navies Stack Up
3/9/2020
By Jon Harper
MARITIME SECURITY
https://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/pcs/click?xai=AKAOjstvbmSx2OP8tDuMZgVBEkvA2zv4fZyouVic9ifvJqQd3d2BHx_nUWEV3DPaJy2LEBsoudSurUtqeZKto8-REQEdxnasanmxSZtQiffSgxCSSrI0AOjhXJxkrD9tMRCZaOKL1jW3I31UCPhgRoOSDF6Dwc1rpyMLks3lP3uRH7TkgYcgZVrxhuGTUoM40Dm2Xm1Htrc2whiavAXw9Vcrwyc2Hs6tdrWiF7cV6OiHTOaOpCBBmyvN-2EGsJK-Udw3ZgYXQPs5X3mlcRat5nSsKbE&sai=AMfl-YTqpBEIduzxZrtS_tKwbIdzszQKJZu3KQ2EQ16Fp1RzlFh_dvOmZgag3O2zVGfwpt_wc1Xcadqd-D2Dqg5RbLw_KH6z1kDk3SwNGVA_QiYhXz8lbk3aAkQUOcgg01Qd&sig=Cg0ArKJSzHcmO6Zyjbf1&adurl=http://vSOFIC.org&nx=CLICK_X&ny=CLICK_Y
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4/24/20, 5(42 PMEagle vs Dragon: How the U.S. and Chinese Navies Stack Up
Page 2 of 13https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2020/3/9/eagle-vs-dragon-how-the-us-and-chinese-navies-stack-up
National Defense photo-illustration with iStock, Navy photos
The United States has been the world’s leading maritime power for decades. However, the U.S. Navy could find itself
in China’s wake if current trends continue, analysts say.
Washington and Beijing are now locked in great power competition.
“The biggest challenge for U.S. national security leaders over the next 30 years is the speed and sustainability of the
[People’s Republic of China] national e!ort to deploy a global navy,” said retired Capt. James Fanell, who previously
served as head of intelligence for the Pacific Fleet.
The modernization of the Chinese navy, also known as the PLA Navy, has been underway since the 1990s, and its
fleet has greatly expanded.
In its annual report on China published last year, the Defense Department stated that its Asian rival has more than
300 surface combatants, submarines, amphibious ships, patrol craft and other specialized vessels.
In 2019, China had a 335-ship fleet, about 55 percent larger than in 2005, according to a recent Congressional
Research Service report titled, “China’s Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities — Background
and Issues for Congress.”
4/24/20, 5(42 PMEagle vs Dragon: How the U.S. and Chinese Navies Stack Up
Page 3 of 13https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2020/3/9/eagle-vs-dragon-how-the-us-and-chinese-navies-stack-up
“There is no doubt that they’ve been investing hugely in this,” said Nick Childs, senior fellow for naval forces and
maritime security at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. “In recent years, they’ve been
outbuilding everybody.”
To put it in perspective, during a recent four-year period the naval vessels that Chinese shipyards produced were
roughly equivalent in tonnage to the entire U.K. Royal Navy or the ...
42420, 5(42 PMEagle vs Dragon How the U.S. and Chinese Navi.docxBHANU281672
4/24/20, 5(42 PMEagle vs Dragon: How the U.S. and Chinese Navies Stack Up
Page 1 of 13https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2020/3/9/eagle-vs-dragon-how-the-us-and-chinese-navies-stack-up
Eagle vs Dragon: How the U.S. and Chinese
Navies Stack Up
3/9/2020
By Jon Harper
MARITIME SECURITY
https://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/pcs/click?xai=AKAOjstvbmSx2OP8tDuMZgVBEkvA2zv4fZyouVic9ifvJqQd3d2BHx_nUWEV3DPaJy2LEBsoudSurUtqeZKto8-REQEdxnasanmxSZtQiffSgxCSSrI0AOjhXJxkrD9tMRCZaOKL1jW3I31UCPhgRoOSDF6Dwc1rpyMLks3lP3uRH7TkgYcgZVrxhuGTUoM40Dm2Xm1Htrc2whiavAXw9Vcrwyc2Hs6tdrWiF7cV6OiHTOaOpCBBmyvN-2EGsJK-Udw3ZgYXQPs5X3mlcRat5nSsKbE&sai=AMfl-YTqpBEIduzxZrtS_tKwbIdzszQKJZu3KQ2EQ16Fp1RzlFh_dvOmZgag3O2zVGfwpt_wc1Xcadqd-D2Dqg5RbLw_KH6z1kDk3SwNGVA_QiYhXz8lbk3aAkQUOcgg01Qd&sig=Cg0ArKJSzHcmO6Zyjbf1&adurl=http://vSOFIC.org&nx=CLICK_X&ny=CLICK_Y
https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/authors/j/jon-harper
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4/24/20, 5(42 PMEagle vs Dragon: How the U.S. and Chinese Navies Stack Up
Page 2 of 13https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2020/3/9/eagle-vs-dragon-how-the-us-and-chinese-navies-stack-up
National Defense photo-illustration with iStock, Navy photos
The United States has been the world’s leading maritime power for decades. However, the U.S. Navy could find itself
in China’s wake if current trends continue, analysts say.
Washington and Beijing are now locked in great power competition.
“The biggest challenge for U.S. national security leaders over the next 30 years is the speed and sustainability of the
[People’s Republic of China] national e!ort to deploy a global navy,” said retired Capt. James Fanell, who previously
served as head of intelligence for the Pacific Fleet.
The modernization of the Chinese navy, also known as the PLA Navy, has been underway since the 1990s, and its
fleet has greatly expanded.
In its annual report on China published last year, the Defense Department stated that its Asian rival has more than
300 surface combatants, submarines, amphibious ships, patrol craft and other specialized vessels.
In 2019, China had a 335-ship fleet, about 55 percent larger than in 2005, according to a recent Congressional
Research Service report titled, “China’s Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities — Background
and Issues for Congress.”
4/24/20, 5(42 PMEagle vs Dragon: How the U.S. and Chinese Navies Stack Up
Page 3 of 13https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2020/3/9/eagle-vs-dragon-how-the-us-and-chinese-navies-stack-up
“There is no doubt that they’ve been investing hugely in this,” said Nick Childs, senior fellow for naval forces and
maritime security at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. “In recent years, they’ve been
outbuilding everybody.”
To put it in perspective, during a recent four-year period the naval vessels that Chinese shipyards produced were
roughly equivalent in tonnage to the entire U.K. Royal Navy or the .
World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 LEAFLET + CONTENTSDouglas-Westwood
The World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 analyses the main factors driving demand for MSV, DSV, Flexlay, LWIV and Pipelay vessels, supported by analysis, insight and industry consultation.
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In the President’s 2024 budget request, total military compensation is $551 billion, including veterans' benefits. That amount represents an increase of 134 percent since 1999 after removing the effects of inflation.
Working with data is a challenge for many organizations. Nonprofits in particular may need to collect and analyze sensitive, incomplete, and/or biased historical data about people. In this talk, Dr. Cori Faklaris of UNC Charlotte provides an overview of current AI capabilities and weaknesses to consider when integrating current AI technologies into the data workflow. The talk is organized around three takeaways: (1) For better or sometimes worse, AI provides you with “infinite interns.” (2) Give people permission & guardrails to learn what works with these “interns” and what doesn’t. (3) Create a roadmap for adding in more AI to assist nonprofit work, along with strategies for bias mitigation.
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Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
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Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
1. Congressional Budget Office
Presentation to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Defense Outlook Forum
January 8, 2020
Eric J. Labs
National Security Division
The 2020 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding
3. 2
CBO
The Navy’s Forthcoming Force Structure Assessment
The Navy’s 2020 Shipbuilding Plan
Risks to the Navy’s Shipbuilding Plan
The Marine Commandant’s New Planning Guidance
Illustrations of Alternative Force Structure Elements
Outline
5. 4
CBO
n.a. = not applicable.
A 355-Ship Fleet Would Mainly Represent an Increase in the
Number of Attack Submarines and Large Surface Combatants
Ship Type
2014 Force
Structure
Assessment
2016 Force
Structure
Assessment
2019 (or 2020?) Force
Structure Assessment
Aircraft Carriers 11 12
The Navy’s new force
structure assessment with
updated numbers is
expected by
January 15, 2020
Ballistic Missile Submarines 12 12
Attack Submarines 48 66
Large Surface Combatants 88 104
Small Surface Combatants 52 52
Amphibious Warfare Ships 34 38
Logistics and Support Ships 63 71
Unmanned Surface Vehicles n.a. n.a.
Unmanned Underwater Vehicles n.a. n.a.
_______ _______
Total 308 355
7. 6
CBO
Ship Purchases Under the Navy’s 30-Year 2019 and 2020
Shipbuilding Plans
Ship Type
2019 Shipbuilding
Plan
2020 Shipbuilding
Plan Difference
Aircraft Carriers 7 7 0
Ballistic Missile Submarines 12 12 0
Large Payload Submarines or SSGN(X) 5 5 0
Attack Submarines 60 61 1
Large Surface Combatants (CGs/DDGs) 76 76 0
Small Surface Combatants (LCSs/FFGs) 57 58 1
Amphibious Warfare Ships 28 28 0
Logistics and Support Ships 56 57 1
_______ _______ _______
Total 301 304 3
8. 7
CBO
Ship Purchases Under the Navy’s 2019 and 2020
Shipbuilding Plans, 2020 to 2024
Ship Type
2019 Shipbuilding
Plan
2020 Shipbuilding
Plan Difference
Aircraft Carriers 1 1 0
Ballistic Missile Submarines 2 2 0
Large Payload Submarines or SSGN(X) 0 0 0
Attack Submarines 10 11 1
Large Surface Combatants (CGs/DDGs) 13 13 0
Small Surface Combatants (LCSs/FFGs) 8 9 1
Amphibious Warfare Ships 5 3 -2
Logistics and Support Ships 16 16 0
_______ _______ _______
Total 55 55 0
9. 8
CBO
SSBNs = ballistic missile submarines; SSGNs = guided missile submarines.
a. Includes littoral combat ships, Oliver Hazard Perry FFG-7 guided missile frigates, new frigates, new small surface combatants, and Avenger class mine countermeasures ships.
Fleet Inventory Under the Navy’s 2020 Plan
10. 9
CBO
Costs of the Navy’s 2019 and 2020 Shipbuilding Plans
Billions of 2019 Dollars 2019 Shipbuilding
Plan
2020 Shipbuilding
Plan Difference
Total Costs Over 30 Years
Navy’s estimates 643 660 17
CBO’s estimates 817 865 48
Average Annual Costs for New Ships Only
Navy’s estimates 21.4 22.0 0.6
CBO’s estimates 27.2 28.8 1.6
Average Annual Costs for All Shipbuilding Activities
Navy’s estimates 23.4 24.1 0.7
CBO’s estimates 29.4 31.0 1.6
Average Cost per Ship
Navy’s estimates 2.1 2.2 0.1
CBO’s estimates 2.7 2.8 0.1
11. 10
CBO
SSBNs = ballistic missile submarines; SSNs = attack submarines.
a. Includes ship conversions, ships that are not part of the Navy’s battle force and training ships, outfitting and postdelivery activities, and smaller items.
b. The costs of the mission packages for littoral combat ships, which are not funded in the Navy’s shipbuilding accounts, are not included.
Shipbuilding Costs Under the Navy’s 2020 Plan
12. 11
CBO
Operation and Support Costs for a 355-Ship Fleet, 2019 to 2049
With the fleet growing to
355 ships, operating
costs would grow
significantly in real terms
over the next 30 years.
15. 14
CBO
From budgetary pressure
From growth in the costs of building ships
From uncertainty about future designs
Three Kinds of Risks
16. 15
CBO
“I think with today’s fiscal situation and where the Navy topline is right now, we
can keep around 305–310 ships whole, properly manned, properly maintained,
properly equipped, and preferably ready.”
—Admiral Robert Burke, Vice Chief of Naval Operations
“If you look at our funding in the [Navy] and straight-line that on our current
budget projections, we can probably get to about 305 to 308 ships and sustain
that over time without a significant increase in our budget.”
—Thomas Modly, Under Secretary of the Navy
“[One of] my top five immediate objectives [is to] establish an Integrated Plan to
achieve 355 (or more) ships, Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs), and
Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) for greater global naval power, within 10
years.”
—Thomas Modly, Acting Secretary of the Navy
The Future of the 355-Ship Fleet
18. 17
CBO
Requested and Appropriated Shipbuilding Budgets, 2012 to 2020
Between 2012 to 2020, the
Congress appropriated $1.7 billion
per year more, on average, than
the President requested. In 2020,
the Congress provided a smaller
increase than in any of the prior
eight years.
19. 18
CBO
a. CBO calculated the weighted average by summing the initial costs for all ships in the data set and comparing that to the sum of all final costs for the ships in the data set. The
unweighted average cost growth is 46 percent.
Cost Growth on Lead Ships, 1985 to 2015
20. 19
CBO
Uncertainty in Columbia Class Cost Estimates
Billions of 2019 Dollars
Lead Ship Average Follow-on Ship
Navy 13.4 6.7
CBO 14.0 7.4
CBO (With less learning) 14.0 8.5
CBO (With less cross-class benefit) 14.9 8.2
CBO (With less of both) 14.9 9.4
21. 20
CBO
All data are provided by the Navy, with the exception of the probability of growth for the CVN-81 carrier in 2019. CBO inferred that number from
the Navy’s cost estimates.
a. The Navy’s estimates reflect the “two-carrier buy”—that is, the Congressional authorization in 2019 to buy the CVN-80 and CVN-81 jointly.
2019 Budget 2020 Budgeta
Estimate
(Billions of
dollars)
Probability of
Growth (Percent)
Estimate
(Billions of
dollars)
Probability of
Growth (Percent)
CVN-79 11.3 ~60 11.4 64
CVN-80 12.9 ~60 12.2 78
CVN-81 15.1 ~60 12.5 80
Ford Class Aircraft Carrier Cost Estimates and the Likelihood of
Cost Growth in Recent Budgets
22. 21
CBO
Future new attack submarine or SSN(X)
Future new large surface combatant
New frigate
Uncertainty About Future Designs
24. 23
CBO
“Force design is my number one priority.”
“If provided the opportunity to secure additional modernization
dollars in exchange for force structure, I am prepared to do so.”
“We must continue to seek the affordable and plentiful at the
expense of the exquisite and few when conceiving of the future
amphibious portion of the fleet.”
The Guidance
27. 26
CBO
CBO considered two illustrations of alternative force structure elements:
– Amphibious forces
– Surface combatant forces
The Marine Corps and the surface combatant community within the Navy are
studying alternative ship designs and force architectures to move away from a
force dominated by large manned ships. They envision a force that would be
more distributed and numerous and that would include many smaller ships and
unmanned systems.
How Might the Navy Change the Amphibious Warfare and Surface
Combatant Forces?
28. 27
CBO
a. Costs are expressed in billions of 2019 dollars.
b. CBO used an illustrative procurement costs of $600 million to $700 million for each alternative less exquisite ship.
2020 Plan, Costsa 2020 Plan Inventory in 2040 2020 Plan Inventory in 2049
28 ships for $75 billion 37 amphibious ships 35 amphibious ships
8 America class for $31 billion 11 LHD/LHAs 10 LHD/LHAs
20 LPDs for $44 billion 26 LPDs 25 LPDs
No smaller ships or unmanned No smaller ships or unmanned No smaller ships or unmanned
Alternative Plan, Costsa Alternative Plan Inventory in 2040 Alternative Plan Inventory in 2049
68–78 Ships for $75 billion 57–61 Amphibious ships 83–93 Amphibious ships
8 America class for $31 billion 11 LHD/LHAs 10 LHD/LHAs
63–73 less exquisite shipsb 14 LPDs 13 LPDs
No unmanned 32–38 less exquisite ships 60–70 less exquisite ships
Illustrative Alternative for Amphibious Warfare Ships,
2020 to 2049
29. 28
CBO
Source: Department of the Navy.
LSC = large surface combatant; SSC = small surface combatant; LUSV = large unmanned surface vehicle; MUSV = medium unmanned surface vehicle.
The Navy’s Future Surface Combatant Force?
In the future, the Navy
wants to build a more
distributed and more
numerous surface
combatant force.
30. 29
CBO
a. Costs are expressed in billions of 2019 dollars.
b. Illustrative procurement costs for large USVs are based on the Navy’s estimates in its budget justification documents for the 2020 budget.
USVs = unmanned surface vehicles.
Navy 2020 Shipbuilding Program Alternative Plan
Ship
Purchases
Program
Costsa
Ship
Purchases
Program
Costsa
Destroyers 28 70 11 28
Frigates 20 23 40 46
Large USVs 10 3b 60 17
_______ _______ _______ _______
Total 58 93 111 91
Illustrative Alternative for Surface Combatants,
2020 to 2030