42420, 5(42 PMEagle vs Dragon How the U.S. and Chinese Navi.docx

4/24/20, 5(42 PMEagle vs Dragon: How the U.S. and Chinese
Navies Stack Up
Page 1 of
13https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2020/3/9/e
agle-vs-dragon-how-the-us-and-chinese-navies-stack-up
Eagle vs Dragon: How the U.S. and Chinese
Navies Stack Up
3/9/2020
By Jon Harper
MARITIME SECURITY
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Navies Stack Up
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National Defense photo-illustration with iStock, Navy photos
The United States has been the world’s leading maritime power
for decades. However, the U.S. Navy could find itself
in China’s wake if current trends continue, analysts say.
Washington and Beijing are now locked in great power
competition.
“The biggest challenge for U.S. national security leaders over
the next 30 years is the speed and sustainability of the
[People’s Republic of China] national e!ort to deploy a global
navy,” said retired Capt. James Fanell, who previously
served as head of intelligence for the Pacific Fleet.
The modernization of the Chinese navy, also known as the PLA
Navy, has been underway since the 1990s, and its
fleet has greatly expanded.
In its annual report on China published last year, the Defense
Department stated that its Asian rival has more than
300 surface combatants, submarines, amphibious ships, patrol
craft and other specialized vessels.
In 2019, China had a 335-ship fleet, about 55 percent larger
than in 2005, according to a recent Congressional
Research Service report titled, “China’s Naval Modernization:
Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities — Background
and Issues for Congress.”

Navies Stack Up
Page 3 of
“There is no doubt that they’ve been investing hugely in this,”
said Nick Childs, senior fellow for naval forces and
maritime security at the London-based International Institute for
Strategic Studies. “In recent years, they’ve been
outbuilding everybody.”
To put it in perspective, during a recent four-year period the
naval vessels that Chinese shipyards produced were
roughly equivalent in tonnage to the entire U.K. Royal Navy or
the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force, according
to Childs.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy has 293 ships in its battle force, just
two more than it had 15 years ago. Its leaders aim to
increase the fleet to 355 vessels, but analysts say that isn’t
feasible unless there is a massive increase in the
shipbuilding budget or a change in the mix of the fleet
architecture toward less expensive platforms such as
unmanned systems.
“Given the past 20-year trajectory of PRC naval ship
construction, the PRC’s expressed desire and ability to continue
to increase its spending on naval shipbuilding, the cost
advantages its shipbuilding industry enjoy compared to
foreign naval shipyards and Chinese shipbuilders’ continued
trend of indigenous technical mastery of complex
designs and systems integration, I expect the PLA navy will

continue to surpass the U.S. Navy in the number of
warships built for the foreseeable future,” Fanell said during
remarks at the Hudson Institute last year.
Fanell estimated that by 2030, the Chinese fleet will have a
surface force of over 450 ships and a submarine force of
about 110 boats. However, predicting its future size and
structure is challenging because the government is opaque
about its ambitions, other analysts say.
“The planned ultimate size and composition of China’s navy is
not publicly known,” O’Rourke said. “In contrast to
the U.S. Navy … China does not release a navy force-level goal
or detailed information about planned ship
procurement rates, planned total ship procurement quantities,
planned ship retirements and resulting projected
force levels.”
But it’s clear to experts that the nation’s maritime capabilities
are improving. China is rapidly retiring older, single-
mission warships in favor of larger, multi-mission vessels
equipped with advanced anti-ship, anti-air and anti-
submarine systems, sensors and command-and-control networks,
according to a 2019 Defense Intelligence Agency
report titled, “China Military Power: Modernizing a Force to
Fight and Win.”
In his CRS report, Naval Specialist Ronald O’Rourke said
Chinese ships, aircraft and weapons are now comparable in
many respects to those of Western navies.
However, when it comes to aircraft carriers, the United States is
still dominant, analysts say.
China currently has only two carriers. The Liaoning entered
service in 2012. The nation’s first fully indigenously built

carrier, the Shandong, entered service in December.
Navies Stack Up
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The former is conventionally powered, has an estimated full-
load displacement of 60,000 to 66,000 tons, and
reportedly can accommodate an air wing of 30 or more fixed-
wing platforms, according to O’Rourke. The Shandong
features some design improvements and may be able to operate
a larger air wing of 40 aircraft.
The vessels, lacking catapults, launch fixed-wing planes using
an inclined “ski ramp,” he noted.
“By comparison, U.S. Navy aircraft carriers are nuclear
powered — giving them greater cruising endurance than a
conventionally powered ship — have a full-load displacement of
about 100,000 tons, can accommodate air wings of
60 or more aircraft … and launch their fixed-wing aircraft …
using catapults, which can give those aircraft a
range/payload capability greater than that of aircraft launched
with a ski ramp.”
A third Chinese carrier is under construction, and a fourth may
begin construction as early as 2021. These future
vessels may have a displacement of 80,000 tons to 85,000 tons
and be equipped with electromagnetic catapults
rather than a ski ramp, which will improve the range and
payload capability of the fixed-wing aircraft.

China reportedly plans to develop a carrier-capable variant of
its J-20 or FC-31 fifth-generation stealth fighters, as
well as a carrier-based stealth drone, O’Rourke noted.
“Chinese aircraft carriers could be used for power-projection
operations,” he said. However, “in a combat situation
involving opposing U.S. naval and air forces, Chinese aircraft
carriers would be highly vulnerable to attack by U.S.
ships and aircraft. But conducting such attacks could divert U.S.
ships and aircraft from performing other missions
in a conflict situation.”
Childs said Beijing appears to be aiming for at least a six-
carrier fleet, while Fanell predicted it will eventually
acquire 10 or more.
The United States currently has 11 nuclear-powered aircraft
carriers, and is acquiring new Ford-class platforms,
which are designed to enable a 33 percent increase in sortie
generation rate relative to legacy vessels. The lead ship,
the USS Gerald R. Ford, is undergoing post-delivery test and
trials. Follow-on ships John F. Kennedy, Enterprise and
Doris Miller are scheduled to be delivered in 2024, 2028 and
2032, respectively.
The service plans to deploy stealthy, fifth-generation F-35C
fighter jets on its carriers, as well as an unmanned aerial
tanker known as the MQ-25 Stingray.
Meanwhile, China’s submarine force, most of which are diesel-
electric powered, could threaten U.S. carriers or other
ships. The Defense Intelligence Agency has estimated that by
this year Beijing’s fleet would increase to about 70
boats.

It includes nuclear-powered attack submarines, or SSNs, such as
the Shang class, and ballistic missile boats, or
SSBMs, in the Jin class.
China’s subs are armed with anti-ship cruise missiles, wire-
guided and wake-homing torpedoes, and mines, and
each Jin-class boat is expected to be armed with 12 JL-2
nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, according to O’Rourke.
Navies Stack Up
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Fanell said with new production facilities, China may soon be
able to launch two SSNs and one SSBNs annually,
giving it as many as 24 SSNs and 14 SSBNs by 2030.
However, he acknowledged that “some may sco! at this
estimate” and consider it inflated.
The U.S. Navy currently has 69 submarines. It recently signed a
contract for a block buy of nine Virginia-class,
nuclear-powered attack submarines that will be equipped with
the Virginia Payload Module to boost each vessel’s
Tomahawk cruise missile carrying capacity by about 75 percent.
It is also pursuing a new class of 12 nuclear-powered ballistic
missile subs, the Columbia, to replace the aging Ohio
class. Each boat will carry 16 Trident II nuclear weapons.

The lead ship is scheduled to be on patrol by 2031.
In the meantime, the Chinese are steaming ahead with building
surface combatants.
The Pentagon’s China report noted that Beijing “remains
engaged in a robust surface combatant construction
program, producing new guided-missile cruisers (CG), guided-
missile destroyers (DDG) and guided-missile frigates
(FFG) which will significantly upgrade the [PLA Navy’s] air
defense, anti-ship and anti-submarine capabilities.”
The first Renhai-class cruiser, which reportedly displaces
between 10,000 and 13,000 tons, was commissioned into
service in January.
Luyang III class destroyers, which displace about 7,500 tons,
are equipped with phased-array radars and vertical-
launch missile systems that are broadly similar to those on U.S.
Navy cruisers and destroyers, O’Rourke said. The
ships have been in serial production and the 23rd vessel was
launched in December.
The PLA Navy is also building a new class of corvettes called
the Jiangdao at a fast clip, O’Rourke noted. The first was
commissioned in 2013, and dozens have already entered service.
In September, China launched the first of a new class of
amphibious assault ships called the Type 075 that has an
estimated displacement of 30,000 to 40,000 tons, compared to
44,000 tons for the U.S. Navy’s America class.
“Although larger amphibious ships such as the … Type 075
would be of value for conducting amphibious landings in
Taiwan-related conflict scenarios, some observers believe that
China is building such ships as much for their value

in conducting other operations, such as operations for asserting
and defending China’s [territorial] claims in the
South and East China Seas,” O’Rourke said.
The U.S. Navy is bringing new vessels of its own online.
The DDG-1000 Zumwalt-class destroyer, which will displace
about 15,600 tons, has a unique design to make it
stealthier to enemy radar. It can carry a hefty load of missiles,
and its energy storage capacity is expected to enable
the vessel to carry high-powered lasers or electromagnetic
railguns.
Navies Stack Up
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“We changed the mission set for that platform from a land
attack destroyer to a surface strike mission, and we’re
incorporating that capability on that platform as we go
forward,” Program Executive O"cer for Ships Rear Adm. Bill
Galinis said at the Surface Navy Association’s annual
symposium.
Final delivery of the lead ship was slated for this year following
combat systems activation. It is scheduled to achieve
initial operating capability in September 2021. However, the
program has been trimmed to just three vessels, far less
than the original goal of building 32.
The multi-mission Arleigh Burke-class DDG-51 destroyer

program is in serial production with 21 ships currently
under contract. The upgraded Flight III variant will include a
more advanced radar for air-and-missile defense, and
the baseline 10 Aegis weapon system. First delivery of the
Flight III is slated for fiscal year 2023.
The service’s littoral combat ship comes in two variants, the
Freedom and the Independence, each with a
displacement of more than 3,000 tons. Nineteen have been
delivered and 16 more are on contract. The Navy is now
arming the platforms, which were originally intended for near-
shore operations, with new missiles and other
capabilities to enhance their lethality against a peer competitor
such as China.
Looking ahead, the service has plans for a new multi-mission
frigate known as FFG(X). A contract award for design
and construction of the vessel — which is expected to be
equipped with the advanced Aegis weapon system — is
slated for this year.
The Navy also aims to award a contract for a new large surface
combatant in the coming years.
“We’re going to continue to refine the requirements on that …
[and] look at the capabilities that we want to bring
into that,” Galinis said. “Think bigger, longer-range weapons,
more computing power, more electrical power on that
ship.”
Meanwhile, the second of the America-class “big deck”
amphibious assault ships, the Tripoli, was scheduled for
delivery this year. The vessel was designed to carry the F-35B
short takeo!/vertical landing stealth fighter.
Although manned platforms will remain a key component of the

nations’ fleets, o"cials and analysts see unmanned
systems as the wave of the future. They are expected to be less
expensive and keep sailors out of harm’s way. Robotic
vessels could be used for a variety of missions, including
intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, and o!ensive
strike operations.
“It will be something that serious naval powers will have to
address in the future because the technology is enabling
new capabilities,” Childs said. “If you’re not part of that game,
then you’re going to be seriously handicapped.”
Last year Beijing launched a prototype of a multi-role robotic
surface vessel called the JARI, according to a story in
the South China Morning Post, citing a Chinese defense
industry publication.
The so-called “mini Aegis destroyer” is to be equipped with
advanced radar and other electronic systems, a 30 mm
cannon, air-defense weapons, and a variety of munitions
including anti-ship missiles and anti-submarine
torpedoes. It will be able to reach speeds of 42 knots and have a
range of 500 nautical miles, according to the report.
Navies Stack Up
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Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy is pursuing a family of small,
medium and large unmanned surface vessels and unmanned
underwater vessels, also known as USVs and UUVs,

respectively.
Some small UUVs are already out in the fleet and operating
today, and can be deployed from surface vessels for
missions such as counter-mine warfare.
The service is pursuing bigger systems, such as the extra-large
Orca, that can be pier-launched.
“On UUVs we’re a few years ahead of where we are on USVs,”
Rear Adm. Doug Small, program executive o"cer for
integrated warfare systems, said at the SNA symposium.
Testing and experimentation with large USV prototypes like the
Sea Hunter is ongoing. The platform has
demonstrated an ability to sail from Hawaii to California with
limited human intervention.
Large robotics ships are expected to be fielded later in this
decade. But more work remains to be done, Small said.
“This is not 15 years out … [but] we need to get through the
prototype phase first, and that’s where my focus is,” he
said.
Seth Cropsey, director of the Hudson Institute’s Center for
American Seapower, said the service is moving too slowly
with this revolutionary technology.
“It has enormous potential for complicating an enemy’s
problem, for multiplying the force that we’re able to apply
not only in East Asia, but everywhere around the world,” he
said.
But platforms aren’t the only part of the equation when it comes
to measuring naval power, experts note. Weapon

systems — enabled by sensors, communications networks, well-
trained sailors and sound operating concepts — are
also critical. China and the United States are both developing
and fielding new missiles and other advanced
weaponry, and the race is on to see who can pack the most
punch.
So which country’s navy is lord of the seas?
“U.S. and other observers generally assess that while the United
States today has more naval capability overall,
China’s naval modernization e!ort … has substantially reduced
the U.S. advantage, and that if current U.S. and
Chinese naval capability trend lines do not change, China might
eventually draw even with or surpass the United
States,”
O’Rourke said. “In the South China Sea, some observers are
concerned that China has already drawn even with or
even surpassed the United States.”
Navies Stack Up
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Rival Navies Aim to Pack Heavier Punch
Both the United States and Chinese navies are beefing up their
weapons arsenals to avoid being outgunned if their

great power competition turns hot.
China is believed to be fielding advanced anti-ship ballistic
missiles, including the Dong Feng-26 with a maximum
range of about 2,160 nautical miles, said Ronald O’Rourke, a
naval specialist at the Congressional Research Service.
“Observers have expressed strong concerns about China’s
ASBMs, because such missiles — in combination with
broad-area maritime surveillance and targeting systems —
would permit China to attack aircraft carriers, other U.S.
Navy ships, or ships of allied or partner navies operating in the
Western Pacific,” he said in a recent CRS report
titled,
“China’s Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy
Capabilities — Background and Issues for Congress.”
The U.S. Navy has not previously faced a threat from highly
accurate ballistic missiles capable of hitting moving
ships at sea, he noted.
Beijing’s military also has an extensive inventory of anti-ship
cruise missiles including some advanced ones such as
the YJ-18.
“The relatively long ranges of certain Chinese ASCMs have led
to concerns among some observers that the U.S. Navy
is not moving quickly enough to arm U.S. Navy surface ships
with similarly ranged ASCMs,” O’Rourke said.
The Navy is pursuing new munitions of its own, including
Block 5 Tomahawks, a modified Standard Missile-6, the
Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile and the Naval Strike Missile.

Navies Stack Up
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The Defense Department recently announced that it has fielded
a low-yield, submarine-launched ballistic missile
nuclear warhead, the W76-2, on its boomers.
Other next-generation weapons, such as directed energy, are
headed to the fleet.
“Lasers are here to stay,” said Rear Adm. Doug Small, program
executive o"cer for integrated warfare systems.
“We’re already making installations on some ships — smaller,
lower power systems. We’re certainly hoping that
[the O"ce of Naval Research] is going to put out some higher
power lasers, and we are well on the path to
integrating lasers as a warfighting capability on our ships.”
Both the U.S. and China are also working on hypersonics —
highly maneuverable weapons that can travel at speeds
greater than Mach 5 and pose a new challenge for enemy
defensive systems.
Top Pentagon o"cials see it as a potentially gamechanging
technology, and are warning that the Chinese have been
conducting far more hypersonic tests than Uncle Sam.
Last year, the Navy unveiled plans to refurbish its Launch Test
Complex at China Lake, California, to improve air-
and underwater-launch testing capabilities for the conventional
prompt strike program. The service plans to
conduct flight tests of a hypersonic glide body this year.

Seth Cropsey, director of the Hudson Institute’s Center for
American Seapower, said the technology could shift the
balance between the United States and China if there’s a
significant lag between when one side fields it and the other
follows suit.
In a recent message to servicemembers, Acting Secretary of the
Navy Thomas Modly said, “When it comes to
hypersonic weapons, our command today must be ‘all ahead
full.’”
China’s Home Field Advantage Creates Logistical
Challenges for U.S. Navy
Navies Stack Up
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While the naval modernization race between the United States
and China has global implications, the biggest
potential flashpoint is the Asia-Pacific region.
Michael Swaine, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace and a Chinese security studies
specialist, anticipates a long-term competition.
“The greatest strategic challenge that Beijing’s naval
modernization will pose for the U.S. and its allies over at least

the next decade will occur in the Indo-Pacific, and especially in
the Western Pacific within the first and second island
chains,” he wrote in a paper last year titled, “The PLA Navy’s
Strategic Transformation to the ‘Far Seas’: How Far,
How Threatening, and What’s to Be Done?”
“This amounts to a fundamental shift in the maritime power
environment within that critical region from one
dominated by U.S. military power to something approaching an
unstable balance between the U.S. and allied forces
on the one hand and Chinese forces on the other,” he added.
Geography would be a critical factor during any major
conflagration in that area of operations, analysts say. The U.S.
Navy has global responsibilities, and much of its fleet is based
on the Atlantic Coast or other locations far from Asia.
Chinese forces, on the other hand, aren’t stretched as thin, and
they would also enjoy homefield advantage.
“Only a certain portion of the U.S. Navy might be available for
a crisis or conflict scenario in China’s near-seas
region, or could reach that area within a certain amount of time.
In contrast, China’s navy has more-limited responsibilities
outside China’s near-seas region, and its ships are all
homeported along China’s coast at locations that face directly
onto China’s near-seas region,” said Ronald
O’Rourke, a naval specialist at the Congressional Research
Service.
Navies Stack Up
Page 11 of

In a conflict inside the first island chain, U.S. naval forces
would also generally have much longer supply lines to
maintain, he noted in a recent CRS report titled, “China’s Naval
Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy
Capabilities — Background and Issues for Congress.”
Nevertheless, U.S. observers should “stop hyperventilating,”
Swaine said, and take steps to balance against Chinese
threats.
That could include a more dispersed pattern of force
deployments, greater numbers of anti-ship and anti-aircraft
missiles, less reliance on forward-deployed aircraft carriers, and
a greater reliance on unmanned systems,
submarines and anti-submarine warfare capabilities, he
suggested.
“The U.S. is not going to build its way out of the current
deepening naval confrontation with China,” Swaine said. “It
will need … a denial-oriented naval posture in the Asia-Pacific
and a level of technological sophistication second to
none.”
Topics: International, Maritime Security, Navy News
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Running Head: SOCIAL MEDIA EFFECT
1
SOCIAL MEDIA EFFECT
14
Social Media Effect to Public Safety Administration
Michael Petras

University of Maryland University College
Introduction
Regulation of social media usage has led to lawmakers,
community members, and even the litigators in shaping their
policies. This is done based on federal, local, and state laws
while also realigning the information that they are sharing
online. This is concerning the public safety administration that
is usually affected by the continued use of social media
platforms. Public safety administration is also based on
restricting access to personal information while trying to protect
citizens from various issues such as bullying and cybercrime.
Social media usage has continued to put more people at risk,
and there is a need for the provision of public safety protection
by the relevant administrators. This needs to be tied to the
generation of federal laws that protect information and data
from various individuals that have been posted on social media
platforms while encouraging the much-needed transparency in
the protection of the public. Continued social media usage by
the general public has also brought about the issue of stolen
identity due to the emergence of modern technology. The new
technology arrival has been the leading cause of the interaction
of many people on social media platforms (Beckett, 2018).
Those tasked with policymaking have always argued that the
administration of public safety should be in line with the duty
to protect the privacy or access to information and data from
various individuals. In that regard, this paper aims at analyzing

the issue of social media usage as it affects the administration
of public safety at all times.
Resources
Public safety administration often encompasses the release and
coordination of various resources, which can be able to ensure
the safety and security of the community as a whole (Gintova,
2018). Administration of public safety is inclusive of many
departments such as the police, the emergency services, the
medical services, and even the fire department. Public safety
administration also happens to be affected by limited resources
when it comes to preventing the processes involved from
working efficiently. This can be linked to the limiting resources
by the government while ensuring the safety and the security of
the general public (Baym, 2015). The general public will always
rely upon a variety of services that come from the relevant
governments to enable the provision of safety and security to
the public in their daily lives. However, limited resources will
end up hampering the whole process as systems and policies
seize to operate with the much-needed efficiency (Wohn &
Bowe, 2016).
Public safety administration services happen to be rendered by
government agencies in most cases, and this usually occurs at
the local, state, or federal levels. The resources that are needed
when it comes to the enactment of public safety concerning the
usage of social media platforms are diverse. For instance, public
safety administration may require the officials that will help to
ensure its efficiency, and this may be a challenge at times. For
that matter, the order in which these services are offered
becomes less efficient (Beckett, 2018).
The officials, such as managers or even the policy
administrators, must be able to ensure that public safety needs
are being provided to the citizens or the community at large at
all times. This is because the different departments of public

safety are often mandated to the provision of public safety and
protection of information being shared on social media
platforms.
On the other hand, public safety administration has been able to
embrace the application of social media platforms as a resource
in fighting crime at all times. This is done by using it to not
only inform the public but keep the educated as well (Gintova,
2018). Notably, tools of social media platforms are helping the
administrators of public safety in communicating emergencies
to the general public while also building situational awareness.
By doing so, the use of social media has helped the agencies in
tracking criminals. However, as much as people have the feeling
that social media is private, it is prudent to note that agencies of
law enforcement have often found ways of gaining access to
information and data about many individuals (Beckett, 2018).
The police and other public safety administration departments
can be able to rely on social media as a resource to gain more
evidence in prosecuting a criminal case.
The other challenge being faced in public safety with regards to
the resources is based on the digital age, whereby the users of
social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, and even
Instagram often share their geographic locations unknowingly.
Such data could be used by anyone while derailing the essence
of protecting the public and ensuring public safety at all times
(Gintova, 2018). For instance, there is a need for surveillance
(that is not discriminatory by any form) for the general public
to help agencies in the provision of safety as they continue
using social media platforms. However, surveillance resources
have proved to be inadequate; hence some criminals have found
a leeway to violate the privacy rights of other people in the
general public (Wohn & Bowe, 2016).
Additionally, other resources need to be adopted by public
safety administrators, such as the police using body cameras
and dash cams. These can be applied in the collection of data
that concerns infringement on personal rights within the social
media platforms (Beckett, 2018). In the absence of such

resources, there is a challenge to public safety administration as
social media platforms usage has become diversified due to the
emergence of higher technology. The funds have to go hand in
hand with the laws that guide the public in using social media
platforms to ensure that public safety administration continues
to protect data and privacy. In the same manner, the resources
are to be encompassed with the implementation of these laws in
a bid to ensure public safety on the platforms of social media
while restricting the access people have on individual data
(Gintova, 2018).
In a bid to foster the public safety administration process, there
is a need for advanced research while social media and
technology continue to advance. However, there are no
resources that can be used for such advancement by the agencies
of public safety administration. This leaves a gap in the
provision of the much needed public safety to all individuals
who are in need with regards to the information provided by
individuals from a particular category (Burton, 2010). At the
moment, it is clear that gathering information can be done with
ease from diversified groups on the social media platform, and a
boost to criminal activities in the cyber world. This happens
without face-to-face interaction, and criminals or any other
users find it easier to more comfortable to carry out their
activities on social media platforms. For that matter, the various
public safety administration agencies have to seek for service of
a social scientist so that they can be able to form new theories
that postulate the interact of such people on the cyber world and
help to avert the harm caused on the general public (Beckett,
2018).
People
Technology has proven to be an essential part of our daily lives
for people in the world because it applies to bills payment,
communication, and adopting better transport systems. People
depend on the improved technology for communication, such as

sending emails, carrying out social media chats, and even trying
to manage their daily lives in general (Gintova, 2018).
Technology has also improved the access that people have with
regards to smartphone usage and any other gadgets for that
matter. However, improvement in technology has also been able
to cause a substantial amount of harm to society, where many
are doing bad things in the community (Beckett, 2018).
Notably, social media platforms have helped the nation in the
sense that they have enhanced activities such as the business
sector while helping the way promotions are being done or even
increasing the general expansion of the way businesses are
being run. However, the use of social media has also come
about with adverse effects at different levels since individuals
have always found ways to infringe on emotional health, the
general social interactions even personal privacy of other
people. This has proved to be a challenge to the way public
safety administration is being carried out within the society as a
whole (Baym, 2015).
While carrying out public safety administration, people are
always an important consideration, especially if the right people
are in place for the whole process. However, it is essential to
note that such people should have the right amount of
experience and training when it comes to the provision of much-
needed safety to society as they continue to utilize the social
media platforms at all times in their daily lives. Furthermore,
the protection process for the rights of individuals or even the
restriction of access to their information and data should always
be done by people working under an effective organizational
structure of the public safety administration agencies (Beckett,
2018).
While the greater society continues to experience globalization,
people are getting connected around the world on a larger scale,
and this has continued to improve their access to resources and
information that are limitless. The connectivity has maintained
to ensure that society is thriving with success as the use of
social media platforms is being embraced in all circles (Baym,

2015). Many people continue to be dependent upon social media
platforms in carrying out their activities, and they have been
spending a considerable amount of time to post and go through
news feeds.
This involves divulging more personal information while they
create new relationships so as to keep in touch with their
colleagues (Burton, 2010). However, public safety
administration personnel have been lacking the relevant training
and experience that is much needed in the provision of safety to
the general public. The heavy usage of social media often
entails that the agencies that deal with public safety provision
get adequate training by the government has not been able to do
so, resulting in the adverse effects that have been realized
within the society as a whole (Gintova, 2018).
Furthermore, the organizational structures of public safety
administration agencies, such as the police departments, have
not been able to accommodate the personnel that is mandated to
fostering public safety at all times. The social media platforms
have seen some of its users being subjected to harassment and
personal privacy intrusion at the same time (Baym, 2015). Fight
such crimes is the relevant public safety agencies have to try
and come up with sections within their departments under their
organizational structures that will be able to deal with social
media crime. This is in line dealing with cases such as users
being exposed to cyber-sex or even online harassment that
happens to the various users.
As this is done, it will be able to hinder the cybercriminals from
conveying the insensitive messages that adversely affect the
emotional status of these individuals. The personnel under such
sections of the public safety administration agencies have not
been trained adequately to deal with the instances that entail
dealing with cybercrime (Burton, 2010). These are such as
posting disturbing images on the internet of other people
without focusing on how it will negatively affect their
emotional stability or hurting one's feelings. The personnel
should be trained adequately in ways that can be used to handle

individuals who carry out online harassment while often causing
emotional disorders to the victims (Gintova, 2018).
Processes
Efficient public safety administration often requires relevant
agencies to come up with better policies and procedures.
However, the current policies and procedures that happen to
govern the various social media platforms are not that adequate,
and their mandate has been lagging in terms of enforcement for
the much-needed regulations. This calls for appropriate and
proper checks and balances to be put into place at all times to
govern the activities of the various agencies that are mandated
with public safety administration. For that matter, enforcement
of public safety has proven to be a challenge in recent times
because the existing policies and procedures are not adequate at
all (Beckett, 2018).
For starters, most social media platforms have often been used
as a mode of expression for a personal opinion while infringing
on public safety at the same time. This has made it difficult for
the various agencies to control its usage, as many often cite the
use of social media to be free (Boyd, 2015). Continued use of
social media has been putting all the public users at risk while
compromising their overall safety, given the fact that the
various agencies do not have means to regulate the activities
being carried out on the platforms. The different policies and
procedures in place have been laid ineffective because most of
the speech privileges on the social media platforms are geared
towards freedom without limiting the formation of hate groups
or even criminal organizations for that matter (Burton, 2010).
The policies are not adequate to be able to control what people
are posting on the online social media platforms, and there are
no specific standards to be used as a guide for all group
members' behavior (Baym, 2015). Such a norm has rendered the
policies and procedures that govern the activities on the social
media platforms to be less strict hence affecting the public
safety administration process as a whole (Beckett, 2018).
There is also the concept of cyberbullying that has increased in

recent times on social media platforms. This is because public
safety administration has not been adhered to fully, and the
reason trickles down to the imperfect policies and procedures
that have been put into place to govern such activities. Gintova
(2018) clearly articulates the fact that public safety
administration has been facing a challenge when it comes to
social media users because illegal access to information and
personal data on the internet has not been restricted at all. This
is based on the various app and programs that utilize such
measures that are not strict while leaving a negative effect on
the victims of these cases at all times. Other policies do not
tackle data posting that could leave a negative mark on the
society, such as immoral actions, suicide commitment, and
terrorism hence making it difficult for the public safety
administration agencies to carry out their tasks (Wohn & Bowe,
2016).
Stakeholders and the Constraints and Opportunities
Analysis of the public safety administration concerning the use
of social media platforms can also be based on the stakeholders,
the constraints, and even the opportunities that are involved
along the way. These are clearly outlined as being part of the
process because they form part of the outcome that is expected
while handling the issue of public safety at all times (Boyd,
2015).
Stakeholders
Social media platforms consist of various stakeholders, with a
good number of people involved in its usage getting data and
information through its use. This is data and information that is
based upon daily events such as meetings and even other
activities that do not frequently recur, such as birthdays. Most
of these events are passed on social media platforms, and this
ends up leaving personal information on the media (Gintova,
2018). If unauthorized persons access such data, it ends up
being in the wrong hands while being used to cause harm to the
victims at the same time. For that matter, the main stakeholders

that need to ensure their own public safety administration
process are the users of the social media platforms.
Most of the users do not want to filter or even limit the kind of
data and information they are sharing on the social media
platforms, and this is leveraged upon by the criminals who find
their data with ease. This has posed a challenge to the relevant
public safety administration agencies as raising the level of
awareness has not borne fruit (Beckett, 2018). Some of the
leading platforms of social media being used by the
unsuspecting individuals happen to be Facebook, Instagram,
Twitter, emails, and even that of WhatsApp. Such media apps
have been accessed with ease by the criminals due to the lapse
in data security by the individuals using the platforms, as most
of them have failed to secure their data with necessary measures
(Boyd, 2015).
Constraints
On the other hand, there have been various constraints that are
being faced by public safety agencies as they try to enforce
safety concerning social media usage. This is based on
safeguarding the information that is coming from various
individuals who use the platforms from thieves and other
cybercriminals at the same time. Thus, the fight is being
hindered in most cases with emerging constraints concerning the
use of social media networks. The various restrictions that are
being faced within the sector are such as ensuring data privacy
for all the individuals subscribed to the social media platforms
as their numbers turn out to be immense (Beckett, 2018). The
protection of such a massive amount of data proves to be a
challenge to the public safety administration agencies as the
technology to do so continues to be elusive.
For example, a criminal can access Facebook accounts of a
given individual and take their personal information to be used
in tracking their email accounts to steal personal information
later on without the user's knowledge. This becomes a challenge
as the agencies find it difficult to tell if, indeed, it is the owner
having access or thief of such information being granted access

to private information (Gintova, 2018). The other constraint is
the regulation of online communities and their respective
activities at all times on the social media platforms. Therefore,
public safety administration agencies often face the challenge of
preventing negative impacts of using social media outlets for
specific individuals because regulation of activities on the
media platforms is not more natural (Boyd, 2015).
Opportunities
The process of public safety administration is often affected by
the opportunities that social media platforms present to various
business sectors. This is because there are opportunities such as
the interconnection of multiple people on a single platform that
makes it easier for them to access relevant information at the
same time (Gintova, 2018). Through social media use, various
people can connect with many others and at different locations
to interact and communicate at lower costs.
This has been the main reason why the regulation of social
media platforms becomes a challenge by the various public
safety administration agencies. As much as the agencies would
want to regulate the ongoing activities on the media platforms,
it would end up affecting people's communication and
interaction means (Beckett, 2018). It would also mean that
people start to incur more costs while using other forms of
communication since the social media platforms they are using
have been interrupted by the agencies. In the end, the routine
activities and interaction of people will be suspended.
Conclusion
Conclusively, it is apparent that social media usage has often
affected the way public safety administration is being carried
out in many circles. This is because it has led to the community
members trying to shape and realign their information that is
being shared on such platforms. The concept of social media
users often affects the public safety administration in any given
scenario because access to the information posted on such
platforms while trying to protect citizens from various issues

such as bullying and cybercrime is a big challenge for the
relevant agencies. Social media usage has continued to put more
people at risk, and there is a need for the provision of public
safety protection by public safety administrators. Some of the
measures that can be applied in curbing such issues are the
enactment of laws that provides public safety at all times. From
the text above, it is also clear that new technology has been the
leading cause of many people interacting on social media
platforms while also resulting in lawmakers trying to come up
with better policies and procedures to be used in the
administration of public safety. At the same time, those that are
tasked with policymaking have always argued that the
administration should always be in line with the duty to protect
the privacy and access, information, and data from various
individuals. In that regard, this paper has managed to analyze
the issue of social media usage as it affects the administration
of public safety at all times.
References
Baym, N. (2015). Social Media and the Struggle for Society.
Social media + society, 1(1), 205630511558047.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2056305115580477
Beckett, J. (2018). Five significant issues in public law and
public administration. Handbook of Public Administration, 697-
719. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315093215-18
Boyd, d. (2015). Social Media: A Phenomenon to be Analyzed.
Social media + society, 1(1), 205630511558014.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2056305115580148
Burton, G. (2010). Media and Society. Maidenhead: Open
University Press.
Gintova, M. (2018). Use of social media in Canadian public
administration: Opportunities and barriers. Canadian Public
Administration, 62(1), 7-26. https://doi.org/10.1111/capa.12298
Wohn, D., & Bowe, B. (2016). Micro Agenda Setters: The
Effect of Social Media on Young Adults' Exposure to and
Attitude Toward News. Social media + society, 2(1),
205630511562675.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2056305115626750
2
Running head: PUBLIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATORS
2
PUBLIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATORS
Public Safety Administrators
Michael Petras
University of Maryland University College
Public safety administration entails the coordination of the
resources that would be used in the safety and security of the
community. Mainly, public safety administrators include the
police officers, the emergency teams, fire departments, and even
medical service providers. The main aim or role of the public
safety administrators is to ensure that the general public is

protected from various threats that may arise as they interact
within the environment. However, recently, there have been
some challenges that have been an issue in the provision of
public safety administrations. The effect of social media use in
the public has been a challenge to the public safety
administration because of the technicality involved in the use of
the same. Therefore, there is a need to understand social media
use as a challenge to the public safety administration.
In the use of social media, it is expected that the lawmakers,
litigators and even the community members shape the federal,
state and local law and departmental policy regarding what
information the public safety administrators access when trying
to protect individuals from areas such as cybercrime and
bullying (Beckett, 2018). The use of social media puts so many
individuals at a lot of risks that need protection from public
safety administrators. It is as a result of this need to protect the
public that laws have been put into place laws on the type of
data and transparency required to protect the public. Some of
these laws have been a challenge to the security providers and
therefore become an issue that needs to be addressed.
The issue of transparency and access to public data from the
public using social media came into existence when there was a
rise in modern technology. The arrival of the new technology
that could enable people to interact online is the one that
resulted to lawmakers coming up with policies that would
require the public safety administrators become more
transparent on the data they access and the extent of the data
they access from the public (Namkoong et al., 2017). The
policymakers argued that the public safety administrators in
their line of duty were accessing private data, which is illegal.
They then came up with laws prohibiting the same, and that
made it a challenge to protect the public who are on social
media platforms.
The history of the issue is dated from the digital age, whereby
the users of social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter,
and even Instagram started sharing the geographic location and

other data in public. However, watchdog or public safety
administrators could use this data to come up with ways to
protect the public and ensure public safety. However, some of
the ways that the data was being used entailed some
discriminatory surveillance and even tended to violate privacy
rights. Additionally, public safety administrators such as the
police had adopted the dash cams and body cameras to collect
data that were sometimes infringing personal rights (Gintova,
2018). It was upon this realization that society groups went
ahead and called for laws to guide the public safety
administrators on the type of data they should collect and stop
invading the personal privacy. However, in the process of
implementing the laws, then it was seemed a difficult task in
providing protection to the public and ensuring their safety on
social media without having to access this data.
To briefly state, the issue of public safety administration should
not be regulated based on privacy matters. The reason being, the
general aim of the public safety administrators, is not to punish
the public but to ensure their safety. Even if someone is
invading their privacy, they are doing that on the basis that they
want to help that someone is protected from any harm that may
arise from the use of social media. Therefore, I do believe that
the issue should be analyzed on the overall benefit received
from the infringement of privacy and not from the fear that
some of the people's privacy being infringed. The same way the
fire department would break into a person's house to contain
fire without any consent from the owner. I believe it should be
the same when it comes to social media that one can access a
threatened person's social media platforms to protect them from
possible cyber crimes, bullying, and any other type of crime
that may arise without consulting the owner. The damage from
the threat is more than the cost of infringement on personal
rights.
Therefore, the issue of infringement of privacy rights in the
context of social media should be an issue of the past that
should not inhibit public safety administrators from conducting

their business of protecting the public. The administrators do
not protect the public from benefiting themselves or from
humiliating someone, but they do it for the benefit of the people
and individuals affected. Therefore, there is a need to revisit the
legislation and come up with laws that are enabling the public
safety administrators to have the ability to administer their
duties without the fear of being subjected to legal litigation of
invading someone's privacy rights.
References
Beckett, J. (2018). Five great issues in public law and public
administration. Handbook of Public Administration, 697-
719. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315093215-18
Gintova, M. (2018). Use of social media in Canadian public
administration: Opportunities and barriers. Canadian Public
Administration, 62(1), 7-26. https://doi.org/10.1111/capa.12298
Namkoong, K., Cho, K., & Kim, S. (2017). undefined. Taylor &
Francis.
4/18/20, 1)30 AMU.S. Shale Boom Over? Four Major Threats
To The Fracking Revolution
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JED GRAHAM 05:36 PM ET 03/06/2020
(Dennis Nishi)
T he U.S. is awash in cheap shale oil and gas. After decades of
declining U.S. oil
output, the fracking revolution unlocked vast oil and gas
deposits and made America
the world's No. 1 oil producer. The once-massive U.S.
petroleum deficit — $436 billion

in 2008 — turned into a surplus last September.
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"We do not need Middle East oil," President Donald Trump
declared in January.
Yet just as Americans have begun to take cheap energy for
granted, along with the jobs
and extra spending money spawned by the shale economy, the
U.S. shale boom's next
act looks uncertain. While the government projects continued
growth for shale oil and
gas production, that forecast may understate the threats.
Political, financial,
technological and geological pressures are closing in.
The 2020 election looms large. A Democrat president could
usher in a new era of
intense regulation — or worse. Meanwhile, solar and wind are

set to overtake natural
gas electricity production far faster than experts predicted just a
year ago.
And the shale industry faces its own issues. Well productivity
has peaked, while prime
drilling areas may soon be fully tapped. Meanwhile, shale oil
and gas companies — from
pure plays such as EQT (EQT) to oil majors Exxon Mobil
(XOM) and Chevron (CVX) —
haven't generated returns. Investors, who no longer want to
finance expansion given
environmental and political risks.
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Shale Boom Growth 'Screeching To A Halt'
The growth phase of the shale boom is "screeching to a halt,"
says Raoul LeBlanc, vice
president for energy at IHS Markit. "We expect zero growth
next year, and if the
coronavirus continues, we could have negative growth this
year."
LeBlanc sees big reasons for the abrupt slowdown that have
nothing to do with the
Covid-19 virus.
"The technology has largely matured," he said. After a period of
big well productivity
gains, "we've largely optimized what we can do." Further, the
best ground for drilling
will be exhausted in about five years, LeBlanc says.
Another reason is all about cash. Shale companies simply
haven't made much money
from the fracking revolution.
"This is one of the most capital-intensive businesses in the
world," LeBlanc said.

"Investors that were willing to fund this massive growth are
starting to focus on
profitability and getting money back," LeBlanc said. That
means spending less on drilling
new wells.
On Thursday, Exxon Mobil said its Permian shale operations
will operate at a "reduced
pace" in 2020 and 2021 vs. its prior plans. The Dow Jones
energy giant sees its Permian
production at 360,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day this year,
though Exxon still plans
to nearly triple output in the area by 2024.
Financing problems for the shale oil and gas sector will only
grow.
ica_n_20intro&intcode=retargetads%7Ctrgt%7CPRSNL%7C202
0%7C03%7Cibdd%7Cna%7C%7C573935&src=A00492A
https://www.investors.com/news/exxon-mobil-slows-permian-
basin-production-still-sees-own-shale-boom/

"In the long run, demand for oil is uncertain, at best. Fear is
starting to decapitalize the
sector, compounding the lousy returns and making it easy for
people to say 'I'm not
going to invest here,' " LeBlanc said.
In the short run, the coronavirus and OPEC dysfunction are
adding to the shale industry
woes. Crude oil prices plunged 10% on Friday to $41.28 a
barrel, hitting a four-year
low. OPEC and key partner Russia failed to agree to emergency
output curbs as the
coronavirus slashes demand. Further, OPEC+ will end current
cuts of 2.1 million barrels
per day starting in April.
Dems Spell Doom To Shale Boom?
Bernie Sanders, whose Democratic presidential hopes are down
but not out, just
authored a bill that would shut down all fracking on federal land
by 2025 and halt
federal permitting of pipelines and LNG export terminals.
The nomination of Sanders would make the future of the shale
boom central to the
2020 election. Sanders says he would phase out fossil fuels in

electrical generation and
transportation by 2030. Even the more moderate Democratic
candidates, including
former Vice President Joe Biden, all sketched out plans to
achieve net-zero emissions
by 2050.
Any move to halt fracking would face legal challenges and may
be an overreach, S&P
Global Platts Analytics figures. The most a Democratic
president could do in the next
four years via emissions and permitting restrictions would be to
halt the growth of
shale oil, it says.
In addition to a reserve of uncompleted wells, oil and gas
companies "have a backlog of
permits they can draw on in coming years," said S&P Global
Platts energy analyst Tyler
Jubert.

And if a Democrat prevails, Platts expects a "spike in
permitting" before Trump leaves
office.
Anti-Fracking Legislation Would Face Senate
Because the regulatory process is so cumbersome, forcing
significant outright cuts in
energy output would require anti-fracking legislation, says
Roman Kramarchuk, who
heads energy scenarios, policy and technology analytics at S&P
Global Platts.
Even if Democrats win the uphill fight for control of the Senate,
such legislation looks
unlikely, he says. "The Senate is the sticky wheel," especially
with the filibuster in place,
Kramarchuk said. In any case, Democratic senators from
energy-producing states such
as Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Colorado, West Virginia may not
fall in line.
Bottom line: Under a tougher regulatory regime and fewer
permits, U.S. crude oil
production would slip to 12.7 million barrel per day by 2024,
about 300,000 below
current levels, instead of growing to 14.3 million bpd, Platts

says. That might only mean
a $5-per-barrel rise in crude oil prices.
Fracking Ban Would Have Big Economic Impact
Yet others fear a President Sanders would do what he promises:
halt all new drilling. If
that happened, rapid production declines from existing shale oil
wells could have an
abrupt impact on supplies, consumption and prices. In a worst-
case scenario modeled
by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, crude oil prices could soar
to $130 a barrel by 2025,
killing millions of jobs.
While Sanders and Elizabeth Warren promise a green-energy
jobs and infrastructure
boom to counter the effects of a fracking ban, there are limits to
how fast renewable
energy can displace fossil fuels. For his part, President Trump
will argue that stunting or
halting the flow of oil and gas would push the U.S. into
recession.

of 22https://www.investors.com/news/us-shale-oil-
Fracking Revolution Dividend To Americans
Low energy prices, courtesy of the shale boom, have boosted
discretionary income by
$2,500 per year for a family of four, White House economists
estimate. The creation of
hundreds of thousands of high-paying jobs, which helped spur
recovery from the
financial crisis, and low-cost energy for U.S. manufacturers are
other big dividends from
more than $1 trillion in cumulative investment, mostly across
seven major shale
regions.
Some of those regions include electoral battlegrounds. The
Marcellus and Utica shale
reserves run through Pennsylvania and Ohio, two battleground
states. Pennsylvania
saw oil and gas jobs more than triple to 31,000 from 2007 to
2014, with extraction jobs
paying well over $100,000 per year. Since then, Keystone State
shale jobs have been
through more downs than ups, including hundreds of layoffs

announced last year by
Chevron and EQT.
Nationwide, oil and gas extraction jobs, including support
activities, rose by about
250,000 from 2006 through 2014. Shale-related employment
slid over the next two
years and is now about 100,000 below the peak.
The bulk of recent shale oil growth has come from the Permian
Basin. That covers parts
of West Texas and southeast New Mexico — a state that Trump
hopes to put into play.
Colorado has been trending Democratic, though voters in the
No. 5 oil-producing state
last year defeated a ballot measure that would have banned
fracking within 2,500 feet
of a residence.
Shale Boom: From Climate Hero To Villain?
The fracking revolution arrived at a fortuitous time for a U.S.
economy hit hard by the
financial crisis. The shale boom, first in natural gas and later in
crude oil, provided a
burst of job creation and eased tight supplies that had led
energy prices to soar in 2008.

It also was seen as a climate-change reprieve. An abundance of
cleaner-burning natural
gas offered a smooth transition from more carbon-intensive
coal-fired electricity
generation.
The White House Council of Economic Advisers estimates that
shale gas cut annual
carbon dioxide emissions from the electric power sector by 506
million metric tons, or
21%, from 2005 to 2018. But recent research casts doubt on
fracking's climate legacy.
Natural gas is cleaner than coal when burned, but not when it
leaks into the
atmosphere. Emissions of methane, the primary component of
natural gas, are far more
potent than carbon as a global warming contributor.
Atmospheric levels of methane stabilized in the decade before
the shale boom, then

took off. Just how much of that can be attributed to shale gas is
in question, but there's
a clear connection.
Shale gas producers voluntarily report some methane leaks, and
infrared cameras have
detected otherwise invisible leaks in natural gas infrastructure.
Further, some shale gas
recovered by fracked oil wells is intentionally vented in areas
with limited pipeline
capacity.
The Rystad Energy research and consulting firm says venting
and burning of excess
natural gas production from the Permian basin hit 810 million
cubic feet per day last
year. That's more than enough to power every home in Texas.
Regardless of who wins the 2020 presidential election, it's not
clear who would fund
another wave of growth. Investors are wary after shale oil
stocks tumbled in recent
years and shale gas stocks cratered.
Shale Companies Aren't Making Money

Even before coronavirus concerns escalated, no quick relief was
expected for low
natural gas prices. The EIA expects output to slip in
Appalachia's Marcellus and Utica
regions. But associated gas output from Permian basin shale oil
producers has
contributed to a glut.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK), once the No. 2 gas producer, has
lost 99% of its value as it
struggles under $9 billion in debt. Shale gas development has
been "an unmitigated
disaster" for investors, says Steve Schlotterbeck, former CEO of
No. 1 natural gas
producer EQT, whose stock has fallen 90% from its mid-2014
peak.
Bankruptcies among fracking-focused exploration and
production companies covered
$26 billion in debt held by 42 firms last year. That doubled the
$13 billion in debt a year

earlier, according to law firm Hayes & Boone.
E Q T Corp (EQT) $13.37 0.56 4.37%
04/17/2020 (Market Close)
5
10
Price
5,030,000
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quotes/nyse-e-q-t-corp-eqt.htm')
S&P Global Ratings this month cut credit ratings of six shale
gas producers, including
EQT, citing the outlook for natural gas prices.
"We are particularly concerned about some of the issuers'
ability to access the capital

markets given investor aversion to the space," S&P said.
Just a few days earlier, CNBC host Jim Cramer exclaimed, "I'm
done with fossil fuel,"
after disappointing earnings reports from Dow Jones energy
giantsChevron and Exxon
Mobil.
"We're in the death knell phase," he warned.
Even Major Oil Companies Struggle
The so-called oil majors were late to the shale boom. But their
stocks only look good in
comparison to natgas stocks.
Chevron, which in December wrote down the value of shale gas
assets by $5 billion, is
down 25% since mid-2014. Exxon Mobil has lost 50%. Over the
same time, the S&P 500
index has climbed more than 60%.
Here's the big picture: Shale oil and gas companies have
produced energy security for
the U.S. even as most have failed to produce positive cash flow.
They've been running on
a treadmill, constantly plowing oil and gas proceeds back into
new wells. Now investors

want off the treadmill.
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) $43.22 4.07 10.40%
60
Price
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quotes/nyse-exxon-mobil-corp-xom.htm')
Shale Oil Growth Slows
Between lower commodity prices and investor-applied financial
discipline, shale output
growth has downshifted in a big way. U.S. crude oil output first
hit 10 million barrels per
day in November 2017. It surged to 12.9 million bpd by
November 2019. The EIA
expects output to edge up to 13.2 million bpd in 2020. The
Permian basin will account
for all of this year's growth.
Signs of a more subdued future for shale oil and gas have been
piling up. Companies

including Chevron and oil services giants Halliburton (HAL)
and Schlumberger (SLB)
have collectively announced thousands of layoffs in recent
months. U.S. oil and gas rigs
engaged in drilling have fallen by 25% over the past year,
according to Enverus Rig
Analytics.
Meanwhile, the EIA estimates that the number of drilled but
uncompleted wells (DUCs)
has fallen by about 10%. The initial drilling costs are about
30% of the total for a fracked
well. The dearth of new wells comes as companies are trying to
stop burning cash.
04/17/2020 (Market Close)
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of 22https://www.investors.com/news/us-shale-oil-
"Rationalization is going to have to prevail in this market,"
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) CEO
Dan Dinges told analysts on a Feb. 21 earnings call. The big
Marcellus gas producer,
which is slashing 2020 capital spending by 27%, aims "to be the
last man standing."
Permian-focused Concho Resources (CXO) said earlier this
month that it will cut
capital expenditures by 10%. Instead, it'll hike its quarterly
dividend by 60% to 20 cents
per share.
Shale Oil Well Productivity Falls
One of the big unknowns about the future of fracking centers on
well productivity. As
shale regions mature, more companies are drilling without
sufficient spacing, leading to
disappointing production. Meanwhile, older wells are seeing
output fall off more
abruptly than expected.
"The average decline curve is becoming steeper than we thought
because the wells are

starting to cannibalize each other," Raymond James analysts
Marshall Adkins and John
Freeman wrote in September.
A recent report from IHS Markit finds that "the speed of the
treadmill" has picked up
for shale companies. The annual decline in oil output from
Permian wells now amounts
to about 40%, or 1.5 million barrels per day. Growing shale
output from here would
require an unlikely drilling pickup in today's more conservative
environment.
A key question for investors is whether the sharp shale
slowdown is temporary "or
whether shale has reached an inflection point because the most
productive areas of the
main shale areas in the U.S. have peaked," Christopher Wood,
global equity strategist at
Jefferies, wrote in November. If the latter, he sees scope for
"one more major spike in
the oil price" as supply fails to meet persistent demand, before
the sun ultimately sets
on the fossil-fuel era.
https://research.investors.com/quote.aspx?symbol=COG

https://research.investors.com/quote.aspx?symbol=CXO
Cramer's loss of faith in fossil fuel stocks, coming as Tesla
(TSLA) stock went vertical, is
understandable. Still, if he's right about this being the death
knell, the bells could be
tolling for a long time.
Alternative Energy Powers Up
The EIA says rock-bottom prices should lead natural gas
production to decline this year.
But after a brief pause, the EIA sees a steady uptrend in natural
gas output through
2050.
Crude oil output is seen rising to new heights over the next
couple of years. It should
hold steady for a decade, before shale oil output starts to wane.
Yet the eventual decline stems from fracking's diminishing
returns, not disappearing
demand. EIA sees demand for transportation fuel falling about

10% from current levels
over the coming decade, before resuming an uptrend. The
outlook assumes that current
laws stay in place.
Technological change is a big risk. EIA sees a relatively slow
ramp for electric vehicles,
with gasoline-powered vehicles still accounting for 81% of
sales in 2050. That's down
from 94% today. But the auto market research firm Jato has
predicted EV sales will
overtake sales of gas-powered vehicles by 2030. Regulatory
mandates will play a big
role in how quickly electric vehicle sales take hold.
The government's 2019 forecast for renewable electricity
generation is already proving
too conservative. In 2019, the EIA forecast natural gas
electricity generation will grow
to 39% of the market in 2050, with renewables second at 31%.
This year's updated
outlook has renewable energy's share doubling to 38%. EIA now
sees natural gas
dipping to 36% from the current 37%.
https://research.investors.com/quote.aspx?symbol=TSLA

Thanks in part to federal tax credits that will phase out starting
in 2023, the EIA says
utility-scale solar capacity is in the middle of a 65%, two-year
growth spurt. Wind
capacity will grow 32% over the same period.
Thanks to Tesla stock, Auto-Manufacturers are ranked No. 1 out
of 197 IBD industry
groups based on price performance and momentum. The Energy-
Solar group ranks No.
2.
Solar, Wind Power Become Price Competitive
Even without tax credits, a Lazard study found that electricity
from new solar and
onshore wind facilities costs about $40 per megawatt hour. That
matches the EIA's
estimate for new natural gas plants. One caveat: The EIA cost
estimate for natural gas
assumes prices much higher than today's.

Still, rapid growth is coming, and not just in states like
California with renewable
mandates.
Last year, Northern Indiana Public Service Co. said it came to a
surprising revelation as
it fielded proposals for replacing two coal-fired power plants.
Based on lifetime costs,
wind and solar "were significantly less expensive than new gas-
fired generation," Mike
Hooper, senior vice president of the electric utility, told a
webinar hosted by Advanced
Energy Economy.
The power company decided to close its coal facilities earlier.
In their place, it'll use
wind and solar, plus battery capacity to manage intermittent
downtime.
Please follow Jed Graham on Twitter at @IBD_JGraham for
coverage of economic policy and
financial markets.
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mar-03-2020/
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technologies-sedg.aspx
https://twitter.com/ibd_jgraham
4/11/20, 10(23 PMTrump is Right: America Needs a Space
Force
Page 1 of 12https://nationalinterest.org/print/feature/trump-
right-america-needs-space-force-107751
Published on The National Interest (https://nationalinterest.org)
Home > Trump is Right: America Needs a Space Force
December 28, 2019 Topic: Security Region: Americas Tags:
Space, Military,
China, Warfare, Air Force
https://nationalinterest.org/
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https://nationalinterest.org/topic/security
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https://nationalinterest.org/tag/space
https://nationalinterest.org/tag/military
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https://nationalinterest.org/tag/air-force
Force

Trump is Right: America
Needs a Space Force
Why is having a separate branch of the military focused solely
on outer space a vital national interest?
by William Giannetti
https://nationalinterest.org/profile/william-giannetti
Force
THERE WAS a short but solemn White House Rose Garden
ceremony on
a warm, late August day in 2019. In attendance was President
Donald
Trump; his head of the National Space Council, Vice President
Mike
Pence; Secretary of Defense Mark Esper; and U.S. Air Force
General
John Raymond. The proceedings were a “big deal,” said the
president
during his remarks, and a bold, “landmark moment” for
America’s
armed forces. And with that, the o!cial party stood at attention
as

Chief Master Sergeant Roger Towberman reverently unfurled a
gold
crested white flag. General Raymond took charge of America’s
11th
combatant command, and after some polite applause from a few
onlookers, U.S. Space Command was reborn.
First established in 1982, during the days when President
Ronald
Reagan dreamt the Strategic Defense Initiative’s lasers would
blast
Soviet ICBMs from the firmament, Space Command led global
space
operations in the post-Vietnam era. But in 2002, the Pentagon
decommissioned it following a post-9/11 consolidation of
responsibilities. The then-unfurling flag, not long after Apollo
11’s
fiftieth anniversary, revealed Space Command’s recycled
emblem. The
future of the Space Force at that moment looked uncertain.
America, it
seemed, had just taken a giant leap backward.
Looking back as recently as 2018, the times certainly have

changed. In
March of that year, at San Diego’s Marine Corps Air Station
Miramar,
Force
President Trump dramatically ordered the Department of
Defense
(DOD) to establish an independent U.S. Space Force as the sixth
branch
of America’s military. Invoking the new National Defense
Strategy for
Space, he declared, “Space is a warfighting domain, just like the
air,
land, and sea.” Reflecting on her confirmation hearing in 2017,
former
Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson said that one could
not even
utter “space” and “warfighting” in the same sentence. A
fascinating
debate played out in the press not long after the president’s

announcement. Sadly, it exposed Washington’s boundless
parochialism. But it also underscored that our satellites are
indeed
vulnerable, and that America should do more to defend itself
from an
attack.
The White House’s push on this front was warranted, more than
most
Americans might have realized at the time, given advances in
China
and Russia’s counterspace programs—from hunter-killer
spacecraft,
to missiles that obliterate satellites in low Earth orbit and high-
powered lasers that blind their optics. Old-style “big bus” space
systems (so-called because they are the size of city buses)
developed by
tried-and-true aerospace firms like Lockheed Martin or Boeing
are
now, as U.S. Strategic Command’s General John Hyten put it,
“big, fat,
juicy targets.” The Air Force Association (AFA) believes air
and space
power are inextricably linked—a notion that incongruously

harkens
back to a bygone era when the Army stubbornly clung to its
belief that
ground commanders knew how to employ air forces better than
Airmen
Force
did. Granted, the AFA’s hesitation to embrace the concept of a
Space
Force should give all servicemembers some pause: its founding
implies
the most significant reorganization of the U.S. military since
President
Harry S. Truman signed the National Security Act of 1947. The
president’s statement, and the ensuing argument for either side,
left
Americans nervously wondering if space war was upon us. But,
now
that the media is atwitter with umpteen hearings and
impeachment

inquiries, space issues have temporarily faded from view. This
does not
wipe away the fact that space is still a dangerous place to be, so
for just
a moment, let us explore why having a separate branch of the
military
focused solely on it is a vital national interest.
FIRST, WE must return to the beginnings of the U.S. Air Force.
The
process to establish it began not long after World War I, and it
continued for almost three decades. It was a cause championed
by
pioneering men like General Henry “Hap” Arnold, who muscled
the air
power agenda through the War Department and influenced
legislation
like the Air Corps Act of 1929. However, while the Act codified
the Army
Air Corps and set today’s Air Force on its earliest foundation,
the case
for Airmen independence was far from a done deal. So, in the
waning
days of World War II, General Arnold convened a special
committee to

assess air power’s strengths and weaknesses during the allies’
air
campaign against the Third Reich. The result was the United
States
Strategic Bombing Survey (USSBS)—a massive, 216 volume
document
that is an exemplar of 1940s “big data,” impressively arrayed
with
Force
concise bar charts and hand-drawn, three-dimensional graphs. It
fully
tallied the 1.6 million tons of bombs dropped on Europe over
765,000
bomber runs and 929,000 fighter sorties. The USSBS, in short,
is the
Air Force’s raison d’être, laying out a strong case why air
power should
have its own branch of the military.
An equivalent study to justify a U.S. Space Force does not

exist. Space-
based capabilities for imagery intelligence began in the mid-
1950s with
the Corona Program, but their existence was a very closely
guarded
secret until the early 1990s. The National Geospatial
Intelligence
Agency (NGA—formerly known as the National Photographic
Interpretation Center, or NPIC) and the National
Reconnaissance O!ce
(NRO), which oversees and develops U.S. satellites, were state
secrets
until the Clinton administration declassified them. A USSBS-
like study
to measure how much intelligence these organizations’ satellites
produce is an impossible task, but the influence that intelligence
has
had on global a"airs and U.S. strategy—from monitoring Soviet
arms
control agreements to the discovery of secret nuclear facilities
in Iran
—cannot be overstated. The machines that generate the nation’s
intelligence are obviously well worth an independent Space

Force’s
protection.
More importantly, now that the nation’s military and economic
sectors
are so tightly intertwined, the case for a Space Force goes
beyond
Force
protecting America’s space-based intelligence sensors. While
the
Global Positioning System (GPS) has been synonymous with
precision
munitions for many years, it also happens to be how the world
and its
financial markets keep time. Inside gps satellites lie atomic
clocks with
either cesium or rubidium cores, which tell time by measuring
the
minutest oscillations of the elements’ atoms. GPS systems are
quite

literally the beating heart of our economy, and the slightest
variation,
or imbalance in it, could cause disastrous consequences to
financial
transactions worldwide.
What we do have are four di"erent non-partisan commissions
funded
by American taxpayers over the last two decades—including
one
headed by former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld—that
basically agree on one thing: a change in the nation’s approach
to space
is necessary. Leadership inside the space domain is terribly
disjointed.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration and DOD
are far
from the only space operators in the room. An estimated sixty
o!ces
claim influence or authority on space-related policy and systems
acquisition issues, according to a Government Accountability
O!ce
(GAO) report. Secretary Wilson, who prided herself on
slimming down

Air Force bloat by slashing regulations and revitalizing
squadron
readiness for combat, appeared predisposed to disentangling
this mess.
Along with former Secretary of Defense James Mattis, she was
rumored
to oppose the formation of a “Space Corps,” which would have
been
headed by a four-star general but controlled by the Department
of the
Force
Air Force—similar to how the Department of the Navy oversees
the
Marine Corps. Republicans and Democrats along the way locked
horns
over what to call the new service. “The Democrats want ‘Corps’
and the
gop wants ‘Force,’ said Todd Harrison, director of the Center
for
Strategic and International Studies’ Aerospace Security Project.

“They
should just call it the Space Defense Force. That would reassure
allies
that it’s not about o"ensive military power or destroying other
people’s stu" in space. It’s about defending our national assets
from
space.”
Some o!cers with more practical expertise in space matters
managed
to make their voices heard above the partisan din. “It simply
defies
logic to keep that domain in the Air Force — akin to having the
infantry
in the Navy,” wrote Terry Virts, a retired U.S. Air Force colonel
and
former commander of the International Space Station, in an
August
2018 Washington Post editorial. “Air and space are completely
unrelated
domains, and the equipment, techniques and culture required to
operate airplanes are entirely di"erent from those required to
launch
and operate in space.” It turned out Wilson, an Air Force

Academy
graduate, had other ideas. A sprawling bureaucracy comes with
a Space
Force, she said, not to mention an improbably high $13 billion
price tag.
Wilson resigned her post in May 2019 to become president of
the
University of Texas at El Paso. As she left the Pentagon behind
for the
Lone Star state, the former secretary in her resignation letter
pledged
to be “an Airman for life.”
Force
AS OFFICIAL Washington battles over turf and ties itself in
semantic
knots, billions in space-based equipment and infrastructure lay
vulnerable still. The fact remains it will take an irascible space
operator
—not an Airman—with Hap Arnold’s skill, charisma and

devotion to
pull every space organization currently in the DOD, the
Executive O!ce
of the President and the Intelligence Community under one roof.
While
there are generations of Airmen who have advanced from
company
grade to general o!cer in the space career’s ranks, only one
might
someday become the Space Force’s first commandant. This
o!cer will
orchestrate the consolidation of active duty, reserve and Air
National
Guard space resources, bridge the gaps between private sector
space
launch companies (like SpaceX or Blue Horizon) and the NRO,
and
possibly assume responsibility over weather squadrons, on top
of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Moreover,
the U.S.
Coast Guard saves boaters in danger, but a space search and
rescue
organization for astronauts or spacecraft in peril is lacking. A

Space
Force might someday be ideally suited for these missions.
Legislation
that governs commercial and government conduct in the space
frontier
is also sorely in need of a refresh. If the 1967 Outer Space
Treaty was
brought up to the twenty-first century’s reality, the Space Force
could
help either rewrite or enforce the law.
The Space Force could also lead the development of small
satellites—
some the size of household microwave ovens—that could pursue
a
satellite’s attackers in the same way then-Major General Claire
Force
Chennault’s Flying Tigers defended our heavy bombers from
Japanese
fighters over Western China and Southeast Asia. On any given

day at
Vandenberg Air Force Base, one Airman might track more than
sixteen
thousand satellites from 186 countries, as well as man-made
objects
and pieces of debris traveling at 17,500 miles per hour that
come
perilously close to tumbling into our big bus systems. Space
operators
of the future could reduce errors of a sort by revolutionizing
space
situational awareness—or even asteroid defense for that
matter—with
artificially intelligent applications that might warn of or predict
catastrophic collisions.
AFTER ALMOST twenty-eight years of continuous combat
since Desert
Storm, the Air Force has proven air dominance and global
mobility are
its business—pure and simple. The service, however, is
reconciling
with the war-torn force it has today with the one it wants for
tomorrow. If 9/11 has taught us anything, it is that the future of

air
warfare is inexorably unmanned. The Air Force has a fighter
pilot gap,
and yet wants to scale up fighter squadrons by 24 percent, from
316 to
386, between 2025 and 2030. What this might cost, says the
GAO, is
unknown. But the Navy’s growth plan o"ers a clue. Over the
next thirty
years, it wants to increase its fleet by 25 percent for $800
billion. Our
Airmen should spend as much time as possible honing tactics
and
improving the readiness of their fighters, bombers and cargo
aircraft.
America’s space operators ought to be a"orded the same kind of
opportunity, with academies where they learn the history,
heritage and
Force

importance of space. An organizational structure should also
reflect the
new service’s priorities and character, as well as a distinct
career path
that grooms o!cers and enlisted personnel to be the leaders of
their
unique domain.
China has a Strategic Support Force which amalgamates space,
cyber
and electronic warfare into one organization. Could Space
Command
follow this Chinese ‘Space Force’ model, and evolve
painstakingly into
something similar? Could General Raymond, a career space and
missile
o!cer, pull every player, from the public and private sectors,
under
one roof? Only time will tell. One thing is certain: America
needs a
Space Force now, and it is still up to Congress to amend Title
10, which
lays out the roles and responsibilities of our Armed Forces. Let
the Air
Force focus on its tomorrow, so that perhaps one day the Space

Force
can set forth and protect America’s future. Congress has the
authority
to set the legislative schedule and make the laws that keep our
nation
safe from harm just as lawmakers of Hap Arnold’s day did.
Given our
adversaries’ advances over the last decade, hopefully, space
protection
—provided by the U.S. Space Force—will rise to the very top of
its list.
William Giannetti is a defense contractor and an U.S. Air Force
Reserve
o!cer. The views in his article do not represent those of the U.S.
Government or Air Force.
Force
Source URL: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-right-
america-needs-space-force-107751
Image: Reuters

4/24/20, 5(30 PMU.S. Falls Behind in Arctic Great Game –
Foreign Policy
Page 1 of 8https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/05/24/u-s-falls-
behind-in-arctic-great-game/#
T
REPORT
U.S. Falls Behind in Arctic
Great Game
Amid a global boom in icebreaker construction, the United
States
risks getting frozen out of the melting Arctic.
BY KEITH JOHNSON, DAN DE LUCE | MAY 24, 2016, 4:06
PM
he United States is scrambling to catch up with a big, global
push to
build icebreakers as the melting Arctic opens the once-frozen
north
to oil drilling, new shipping and cruise routes, and intensified
military competition.
Countries from Russia to China and Chile are all muscling
ahead to build a

new generation of icebreaking ships. The United States, despite
a belated
polar effort last year by the Obama administration, has
struggled to upgrade
its tiny and aging icebreaker fleet, potentially leaving it at a
disadvantage in
the race for influence in the Arctic.
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https://foreignpolicy.com/author/keith-johnson/
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4/24/20, 5(30 PMU.S. Falls Behind in Arctic Great Game –
Foreign Policy
Page 2 of 8https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/05/24/u-s-falls-
behind-in-arctic-great-game/#
But on Tuesday, a Senate Appropriations subcommittee
earmarked $1
billion for a new polar icebreaker — a potentially big step
forward toward

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