System Dynamics Model of Recycling Scenarios
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This document summarizes a presentation on system dynamics modeling of plastics recycling scenarios. It finds that increased plastics recycling could provide environmental benefits but price variability and volume constraints limit potential for new plastics processing in Minnesota. Rigid plastics and film plastics represent good opportunities for higher diversion from landfills. The presentation included system diagrams, data on plastics recycling rates and prices, and preliminary results from recycling capacity scenarios modeling changes over time.
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System Dynamics Model of Recycling Scenarios
- 1. System Dynamics of Recycling Scenarios Rebecca Pickens, NorthStar Initiative for Sustainable Enterprise, University of Minnesota WE12 Conference – Houston, TX – November 9, 2012
- 2. • In the US, 8% of plastics are recycled, compared with a 34% overall recycling rate (EPA 2011) • Plastic Bottles recycled at higher rates (29.2% for PET and 27.5% for HDPE) • Rigid Plastics and Film Plastics compose the majority of plastic volume available in landfills, yet have relatively low recycling rates Plastics Recycling
- 3. • Reduced Energy Use • Reduced Global Warming & Acidification Potential • Solid Waste Diversion from Landfills • Local Economic Impacts Plastics Recycling Policies • Policy Changes: mandating collection of all plastics, extended producer responsibility laws and voluntary programs
- 4. Consumption of Plastic Goods Post-Industrial Virgin Plastic Resin Reprocessors Recycled Plastics Brokers & Contracts Landfill Recycling MRFs Waste-to-Energy International MarketsFood Packaging Plastic Disposed Waste-to-Fuel Non-Food Packaging Food-Grade Recycled Plastic Resin Sorted Plastic Bales Cleaned, Recycled Plastic Flake Mixed Plastic Bales Recycled Plastic Resin Dirty, Recycled Plastic Grind Plastic Products Converters Food-Grade Converters Post-Commercial Brand Owners Post-Consumer Recycling Plastics
- 5. Consumption of Plastic Goods Post-Industrial Virgin Plastic Resin Reprocessors Recycled Plastics Brokers & Contracts Landfill Recycling MRFs Waste-to-Energy International MarketsFood Packaging Plastic Disposed Waste-to-Fuel Non-Food Packaging Food-Grade Recycled Plastic Resin Sorted Plastic Bales Cleaned, Recycled Plastic Flake Mixed Plastic Bales Recycled Plastic Resin Dirty, Recycled Plastic Grind Plastic Products Converters Food-Grade Converters Post-Commercial Brand Owners Post-Consumer Recycling Plastics
- 6. Commingled Plastic Prices 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 6-Jul-09 22-Jan-10 10-Aug-10 26-Feb-11 14-Sep-11 1-Apr-12 18-Oct-12 6-May-13 Price(cents/lb) Commingled (#1-#7) & Sorted Bales National Average PET National Average Natural HDPE National Average Colored HDPE National Average Commingled Data Source: Waste & Recycling News, 2012
- 8. Consumption of Plastic Goods Post-Industrial Virgin Plastic Resin Domestic Reprocessors Recycled Plastics Brokers & Contracts Landfill Recycling MRFs Waste-to-Energy International MarketsFood Packaging Plastic Disposed Waste-to-Fuel Non-Food Packaging Food-Grade Recycled Plastic Resin Sorted Plastic Bales Cleaned, Recycled Plastic Flake Mixed Plastic Bales Recycled Plastic Resin Dirty, Recycled Plastic Grind Plastic Products Converters Food-Grade Converters Post-Commercial Brand Owners Post-Consumer Recycling Plastics
- 9. Consumption of Plastic Goods Post-Industrial Virgin Plastic Resin Domestic Reprocessors Recycled Plastics Brokers & Contracts Landfill Recycling MRFs Waste-to-Energy International MarketsFood Packaging Plastic Disposed Waste-to-Fuel Non-Food Packaging Food-Grade Recycled Plastic Resin Sorted Plastic Bales Cleaned, Recycled Plastic Flake Mixed Plastic Bales Recycled Plastic Resin Dirty, Recycled Plastic Grind Plastic Products Converters Food-Grade Converters Post-Commercial Brand Owners Post-Consumer Recycling Plastics Bottle Exports: 50.2% of PET 20% of HDPE 18% of PP 82% PVC 86% LDPE
- 10. Plastics Sent to MN Landfills – Calculated Tons Data Sources: Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, Hennepin County, and SAIC
- 11. Plastics Leaving MN Materials Recovery Facilities Data Source: Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
- 12. Consumption of Plastic Goods Post-Industrial Virgin Plastic Resin Reprocessors Recycled Plastics Brokers & Contracts Landfill Recycling MRFs Waste-to-Energy International MarketsFood Packaging Plastic Disposed Waste-to-Fuel Non-Food Packaging Food-Grade Recycled Plastic Resin Sorted Plastic Bales Cleaned, Recycled Plastic Flake Mixed Plastic Bales Recycled Plastic Resin Dirty, Recycled Plastic Grind Plastic Products Converters Food-Grade Converters Post-Commercial Brand Owners Post-Consumer Recycling Plastics
- 13. Consumption of Plastic Goods Post-Industrial Virgin Plastic Resin Reprocessors Recycled Plastics Brokers & Contracts Landfill Recycling MRFs Waste-to-Energy International MarketsFood Packaging Plastic Disposed Waste-to-Fuel Non-Food Packaging Food-Grade Recycled Plastic Resin Sorted Plastic Bales Cleaned, Recycled Plastic Flake Mixed Plastic Bales Recycled Plastic Resin Dirty, Recycled Plastic Grind Plastic Products Converters Food-Grade Converters Post-Commercial Brand Owners Post-Consumer Recycling Plastics
- 14. Consumption of Plastic Goods Post-Industrial Virgin Plastic Resin Reprocessors Recycled Plastics Brokers & Contracts Landfill Recycling MRFs Waste-to-Energy International MarketsFood Packaging Plastic Disposed Waste-to-Fuel Non-Food Packaging Food-Grade Recycled Plastic Resin Sorted Plastic Bales Cleaned, Recycled Plastic Flake Mixed Plastic Bales Recycled Plastic Resin Dirty, Recycled Plastic Grind Plastic Products Converters Food-Grade Converters Post-Commercial Brand Owners Post-Consumer Recycling Plastics
- 15. • Reduced Energy Use • Reduced Global Warming & Acidification Potential • Solid Waste Diversion from Landfills • Local Economic Impacts Plastics Recycling Policies • Policy Changes: mandating collection of all plastics, extended producer responsibility laws and voluntary programs
- 16. Capacity Scenario Base Case – Preliminary Results 1:06 AM Thu,Sep 27, 2012 Untitled Page 1 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 Years 1: 1: 1: 2: 2: 2: 3: 3: 3: 0 1500 3000 2000 3000 4000 0 250 500 1: PP sorting capacity 2: PP MN Flake Capacity 3: PP bales expÉed from the s tate 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 1:14 AM Thu, Sep 27, 2012 Untitled 1 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 Years 15000 18000 21000 0 15000 30000 -5000 5000 15000 1: PET sorting capacity 2: rPET MN Flake Capacity 3: PET bales exÉed from the s tate 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 1:23 AM Thu, Sep 27, 2012 Untitled Page 1 0.00 3.00 6.00 9.00 12.00 Tim e 1: 1: 1: 2: 2: 2: 3: 3: 3: 10000 12500 15000 29999 30000 30001 -1 0 1 1: HDPE s orting capacity 2: HDPE MN Flake Capacity 3: HDPE bales eÉd from the state 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 23 3 3 3 PET HDPE PP
- 17. Pricing Analysis $(150.00) $(100.00) $(50.00) $- $50.00 $100.00 $150.00 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Bale-to-Flake Price Difference (cents/lb) Preliminary NPV Estimate (in $1,000) for a 10,000 Ton PET Flake Plant NPV (Millions of Dollars) 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 28-May-05 10-Oct-06 22-Feb-08 6-Jul-09 18-Nov-10 1-Apr-12 14-Aug-13 HDPE Flake-to-Bale Difference (cents/lb) 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 28-May-05 10-Oct-06 22-Feb-08 6-Jul-09 18-Nov-10 1-Apr-12 14-Aug-13 PET Flake-to-Bale Difference (cents/lb) Historical Prices from: Waste & Recycling News and Plastics News
- 18. 7:25 PM Mon, Nov 05, 2012 Untitled Page 1 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 Years 1: 1: 1: 2: 2: 2: 3: 3: 3: 0 1500 3000 2000 3000 4000 0 250 500 1: PP sorting capacity 2: PP MN Flake Capacity 3: PP bales expÉed from the state 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 23 3 3 3 Capacity Scenario 2005-2012 Price Variation Example – Preliminary Results PP PET HDPE 7:02 PM Mon, Nov 05, 2012 Untitled e 1 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 Years 15000 18000 21000 0 15000 30000 -5000 5000 15000 1: PET sorting capacity 2: rPET MN Flake Capacity 3: PET bales exÉed from the s tate 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 PET
- 19. • Increased plastics recycling could have environmental benefits • Rigid plastics and film plastics are good opportunities for increased volume diversion • Price variability and volume constraints limit the potential for new plastics processing in the state Conclusions
- 20. Association of Postconsumer Plastic Recyclers and American Chemistry Council. (2011). 2010 United States National Post-Consumer Plastics Bottle Recycling Report. Lazarevic, D., Aoustin, E., Buclet, N., & Brandt, N. (2010). Plastic waste management in the context of a European recycling society: Comparing results and uncertainties in a life cycle perspective. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 55(2), 246–259. Ford, A. Modeling the Environment, 2nd Ed. (2010). Island Press. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2011). Municipal Solid Waste Generation , Recycling , and Disposal in the United States : Facts and Figures for 2010. Stella Software for System Dynamics Modeling: http://www.iseesystems.com/ Vensim Software for System Dynamics Modeling: http://www.vensim.com/ Resources
- 21. • Professor Timothy Smith, Director, NorthStar Initiative for Sustainable Enterprise • Hennepin County, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, Minnesota Technical Assistance Program, Resource Recycling Systems, Keep America Beautiful, Aspen Research Thank you
- 22. Questions?