This document presents a classification of warning systems for natural hazards. It aims to develop a method to quantify the reliability of such warning systems. It identifies three types of warning systems: threshold systems, expert systems, and model-based expert systems. Each system has typical characteristics that influence reliability. The monitored hazard process determines the system's lead time and design. The classification allows the derivation of reliability criteria for each system type based on technical, human, data-related, and organizational factors. This provides an essential input for developing a reliability quantification method.

1. Dissertation REWARN
A Classification of Warning Systems for
Natural Hazards
Martina Sättele
FOCP
Swiss Federal Office for
Civil Protection
&
SLF
WSL Institute for Snow and
Avalanche Research SLF

2. Dissertation Content of presentation
REWARN
Research goal • Research goal and objective
and objective
Warning systems for natural hazards - Application of a generic classification
Hazard
processes
• Hazard processes
Monitoring
possibilities • Monitoring possibilities
System
classification • System classification
Reliability
criteria • Reliability criteria
Conclusion
• Conclusion

3. Dissertation
Role of warning systems in „Integrated Risk Management“
REWARN
• Mitigate the risk to an object in a scenario by reducing:
Research goal
and objective
Warning systems for natural hazards - Application of a generic classification
Hazard
processes
• probability of occurrence
Monitoring
possibilities
• presence probability of object
• vulnerability of object
System
classification • value of object
Reliability
criteria
Source: FOCP
Swiss Federal Office for
Conclusion Civil Protection
• Warning systems mitigate the risk by reducing the presence probability
• To be able to incorporate warning systems as standard measures in the
integrated risk management their reliability must be quantifiable
3

4. Dissertation
Research goal and objectives
REWARN
1. Objective:
• Provide an overview of warning systems
Research goal • Derive a classification of warning systems
and objective
Warning systems for natural hazards - Application of a generic classification
Hazard
processes 2. Objective:
• Summarize reliability methods applied in industry
Monitoring
possibilities
• Identify methods for the required field
System
classification 3. Objective:
• Verify reliability methods in case studies
Reliability
criteria • Document relevant findings in a guideline
Conclusion
Research goal
Development of a method to quantify the reliability of warning
systems for natural hazards
4

5. Dissertation
Classification of warning systems
REWARN
• A recognized classification does not exist at present
• Allows the identification of system reliability criteria
Research goal
and objective
• Requires an holistic approach
Warning systems for natural hazards - Application of a generic classification
Hazard
processes
Monitoring Human Environment
possibilities Material
Energy
System Information
classification Material Material
Energy Energy
Reliability Information Information
criteria
Technical system
Conclusion
Material
Energy
Information
Input Technical Process Output
5

6. Hazards processes and warning systems in Switzerland
Dissertation
REWARN
• Main property damages since 1990: flood, hail and storm (IRV, 2012)
• Statistics are influenced by major events (WSL, Swiss flood and landslide damage database,2009)
Research goal
and objective • Historical events show processes with hazard potential (PLANAT homepage, 2012)
Warning systems for natural hazards - Application of a generic classification
Hazard
processes
Monitoring • 52 systems in four Cantons were identified
possibilities
atmospheric – meteorological
System
classification hydrological – glaciological
Nr. of systems identified/ hazard process
geological – geomorphological
Reliability 16 biological
criteria 14
12
10 FireLess Schweiz
Meteo System
SED – Swiss
Snow avalanche
Hydrological
Conclusion 8 Seismological
WSL
bulletin SLF
6
4 Service
(FOEN)
2
0
6

7. Natural hazards processes characteristics
Dissertation
REWARN
trigger
events damaging
hazard event
event
dynamic process parameters
Research goal variable disposition
and objective
Warning systemsdisposition
basic for natural hazards - Application of a generic classification
Hazard
processes
(aligned to: Zimmermann, 1997)
Monitoring
possibilities Example: Debris flow process characteristics:
System
classification
• Basic disposition: steep slope and curvature, glacier
Reliability • Variable disposition: availability of loose debris material
criteria
Conclusion • Trigger events: rain, snow and ice melting
• Dynamic process parameters: frontal speed, height, volume,
discharge, density
7

8. Hazard process characteristics and system monitoring parameters
Dissertation
REWARN
trigger
events damaging
hazard event
event
Research goal
and objective dynamic process parameters
variable disposition
Warning systems for natural hazards - Application of a generic classification
Hazard
basic disposition
processes
Monitoring
warning time alarm time
possibilities
system lead time system lead time
System
classification
Reliability Two situations can be distinguished:
criteria
Conclusion • System lead time = alarm time
 dynamic process parameters (direct)
• System lead time = warning + alarm time
 variable disposition, triggers (direct/ indirect)
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9. Dissertation
Illgraben: Debris flow warning system Canton Valais
REWARN
Research goal
and objective
Warning systems for natural hazards - Application of a generic classification
Hazard
processes
Monitoring
possibilities
System
classification
Reliability
criteria
Conclusion
Source: Christoph Graf, WSL
9

10. Dissertation
Preonzo: Rock avalanche warning system Canton Ticino
REWARN
Research goal
and objective
Warning systems for natural hazards - Application of a generic classification
Hazard
processes
Monitoring
possibilities
System
classification
Reliability
criteria
Conclusion
10

11. Dissertation
SLF Snow avalanche system
REWARN
Research goal
and objective
Warning systems for natural hazards - Application of a generic classification
Hazard
processes
Monitoring
possibilities
System
classification
Reliability
criteria
Conclusion
Source: SLF, MeteoSchweiz
11

12. Dissertation
Classification of warning system for natural hazards
REWARN
Type Threshold Expert Model based
system system expert system
Characteristics (34) (14) (4)
Lead time alarm (34) warning (13) warning (4)
Research goal alarm (1)
and objective
Geographical Warning systems for natural hazards - Application of national (4) classification
national (2) national (1) a generic
Hazard Coverage regional (1) local (13) regional (1)
processes local (31)
Geographical local (34) local (14) regional (5)
Monitoring
possibilities
resolution
Type of monitoring direct (33) direct (14) indirect (5)
System indirect (13)
classification
First decision instance threshold (33) threshold (14) threshold (1)
Reliability no (3)
criteria Final decision instance threshold (33) expert (14) experts (4)
Conclusion Model based decision no (33) simple model (14) complex models (5)
complex models (1)
Automated actions yes (34) no (14) no (4)
Warning levels one (21) one (6) multiple (5)
multiple (13) multiple (8)
Information receiver endangered objects (33) endangered objects (14) interest groups (5)
public (1) public (6) public (5)
authorities (31) authorities (5)
system operator (33)
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13. Dissertation
General influences on the system reliability
REWARN
Degree of
Research goal
influence
and objective
Warning systems for natural hazards - Application of a generic classification
Hazard
processes
Monitoring
possibilities
Threshold & Human , models &
System
automated actions technical complexity
classification
Reliability
criteria
Conclusion
System
Threshold Expert Model based class
system system expert system
13

14. Dissertation
Threshold system - reliability criteria
REWARN
• Choice of sensor type, redundancies, position and fixation
• Choice of threshold value
Research goal
and objective
• Functionality and control of the logger and power supply
Warning systems for natural hazards - Application of a generic classification
Hazard
processes
• Functionality and control of alarm transmission
Monitoring
possibilities • Functionality and control of alarm facilities/ equipment
System • Reduced technical complexity/ number of interfaces
classification
Reliability
criteria
 Uncertain parameters are technical and data related factors
Conclusion
14

15. Dissertation
Expert system - reliability criteria
REWARN
• Availability of measured data on server
• Degree of experts experience and risk attitude
Research goal
and objective
• Quality of models and the natural hazards -of indirect datageneric classification
Warning systems for interpretation Application of a
Hazard
processes
• Conduction of preventive and active actions
Monitoring
possibilities • Achievement of endangered objectives
System
classification
Reliability  Uncertain parameters are technical, human, data related and
criteria
organisational factors
Conclusion
15

16. Dissertation
Model based expert system - reliability criteria
REWARN
• Handling of complex data management e.g. redundant servers
• Definition of clear work and decision processes
Research goal
and objective
• Standardisation systemsmeasuringhazards - Application of a generic classification
Warning of the for natural stations
Hazard
processes
Monitoring
possibilities  Uncertain parameters are technical, human, data related, organisational
System
classification
and standardisation related factors
Reliability
criteria
Conclusion
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17. Dissertation
Conclusion
REWARN
• Warning systems can be classified in
• i) threshold, ii) expert and iii) model based expert systems
Research goal
and objective
• Each class incorporates for natural hazards - Application of a generic classification
Warning systems typical system characteristics
Hazard
processes
• The monitored hazard process characteristics determine the system
Monitoring
possibilities lead time, the system design and the system reliability criteria
System • The classification allows the derivation of reliability criteria
classification
Reliability • The classification and the derived reliability criteria are an essential
criteria
input for the development of a reliability method
Conclusion
17

18. Dissertation
REWARN
Research goal
and objective
Hazard
Thank you for your
Warning systems for natural hazards - Application of a generic classification
processes
Monitoring
possibilities
attention!
System
classification
Reliability
criteria
Conclusion
Questions???
18