1. The document discusses Washington's "Returning to Asia" strategy and its potential impacts on East Asia. The strategy has two pillars: promoting the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement and redeploying US military forces in the Asia-Pacific region.
2. It analyzes the strategic choices available to China, Japan, and Russia in response to the US strategy. For China, it suggests continuing to advance trade agreements with ASEAN while remaining open to TPP, using trade leverage in territorial disputes, and being prepared to counter Japanese militarism with force if needed.
3. For all regional powers, managing tensions and conflicts will be important to prevent deterioration of the security situation in East Asia
This document summarizes the key discussions and conclusions from a conference on Japan's increasing global role. The conference brought together Japanese, EU, and US policymakers and business leaders. Key conclusions included that Japan will continue contributing globally but faces challenges taking a greater leadership role due to domestic political instability and an inward focus. Japan remains concerned by regional security issues like China's military growth. The document also discusses Japan's role in global economic prosperity and its bilateral relationships, particularly with the US and China. Japan needs to take bolder steps to define its regional role and overcome challenges to assuming greater international leadership.
China's 2015 National Defense Strategy aimed to complete building a moderately prosperous society by 2021 and a modern socialist country by 2049. It emphasized cooperation with other countries while avoiding directly addressing competition with the US. The strategy highlighted China's ongoing military reforms to build stronger joint warfare capabilities. It also noted increasing challenges, including territorial disputes, US military presence in Asia, and threats to China's stability from separatist forces. While focusing on developing a strong military as part of its national rejuvenation, the strategy stressed China's military would adhere to the Communist Party's leadership and pursue combat effectiveness.
The document discusses U.S.-China strategic relations and tensions over Taiwan. It summarizes a Pentagon report on China's growing military capabilities and China's protests against the report. It also discusses Vice President Biden's recent visit to China to boost relations and reassure China on economic issues. However, tensions remain over Taiwan, which the U.S. is legally obligated to aid defensively, despite China's stance that Taiwan is part of China.
Decoding china’s emerging “great power” strategy in asiangocjos
This document provides an overview of the domestic political context in China surrounding the leadership transition from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping. It notes that the leadership transition proceeded smoothly according to the standards of the Chinese Communist Party. While there was political infighting, most notably with the downfall of Bo Xilai, the succession was relatively peaceful and on schedule. The document discusses how Xi Jinping has quickly consolidated power within the Communist Party despite constraints, accumulating more authority faster than expected. It remains to be seen how this will impact Xi's agenda and China's trajectory under his leadership.
The document discusses the relationship between the US and China in 2020 according to the "two-good theory". The theory predicts that as China's economic and military power increases, it will seek more policy changes internationally. This is exemplified by China's territorial disputes with neighbors and calls to replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency. Meanwhile, as US influence declines relatively, it will prioritize maintaining the status quo. The future relationship will test this theory as China continues pursuing changes while the US seeks to preserve its interests.
The document summarizes the visit of Iranian Ambassador Mehdi Sanaei to the European University at St. Petersburg. In his talk, the ambassador discussed the history and current state of Iran-Russia relations. He identified three main dimensions of cooperation - international, regional, and bilateral. While economic ties remain relatively small, both countries see value in their strategic partnership. The ambassador also spoke about Iran's experience with international sanctions and how Russia supported Iran during that difficult period. Relations are expected to continue strengthening as both nations work to establish a multipolar world order.
The Role of the United States in the Turkish Coup of 1960Sean Ryan
This paper examines the role of the US in the 1960 Turkish coup. It argues that US economic aid to Turkey in the 1950s, intended to stabilize the country and develop its economy, instead empowered corrupt Prime Minister Adnan Menderes. Menderes used the aid to consolidate political power rather than economic development, weakening Turkey's democracy and economy. By 1960, unrest led to a military coup removing Menderes. The paper aims to analyze primary sources on US-Turkish relations and the coup to better understand US influence on foreign regimes through economic aid.
This document summarizes the key discussions and conclusions from a conference on Japan's increasing global role. The conference brought together Japanese, EU, and US policymakers and business leaders. Key conclusions included that Japan will continue contributing globally but faces challenges taking a greater leadership role due to domestic political instability and an inward focus. Japan remains concerned by regional security issues like China's military growth. The document also discusses Japan's role in global economic prosperity and its bilateral relationships, particularly with the US and China. Japan needs to take bolder steps to define its regional role and overcome challenges to assuming greater international leadership.
China's 2015 National Defense Strategy aimed to complete building a moderately prosperous society by 2021 and a modern socialist country by 2049. It emphasized cooperation with other countries while avoiding directly addressing competition with the US. The strategy highlighted China's ongoing military reforms to build stronger joint warfare capabilities. It also noted increasing challenges, including territorial disputes, US military presence in Asia, and threats to China's stability from separatist forces. While focusing on developing a strong military as part of its national rejuvenation, the strategy stressed China's military would adhere to the Communist Party's leadership and pursue combat effectiveness.
The document discusses U.S.-China strategic relations and tensions over Taiwan. It summarizes a Pentagon report on China's growing military capabilities and China's protests against the report. It also discusses Vice President Biden's recent visit to China to boost relations and reassure China on economic issues. However, tensions remain over Taiwan, which the U.S. is legally obligated to aid defensively, despite China's stance that Taiwan is part of China.
Decoding china’s emerging “great power” strategy in asiangocjos
This document provides an overview of the domestic political context in China surrounding the leadership transition from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping. It notes that the leadership transition proceeded smoothly according to the standards of the Chinese Communist Party. While there was political infighting, most notably with the downfall of Bo Xilai, the succession was relatively peaceful and on schedule. The document discusses how Xi Jinping has quickly consolidated power within the Communist Party despite constraints, accumulating more authority faster than expected. It remains to be seen how this will impact Xi's agenda and China's trajectory under his leadership.
The document discusses the relationship between the US and China in 2020 according to the "two-good theory". The theory predicts that as China's economic and military power increases, it will seek more policy changes internationally. This is exemplified by China's territorial disputes with neighbors and calls to replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency. Meanwhile, as US influence declines relatively, it will prioritize maintaining the status quo. The future relationship will test this theory as China continues pursuing changes while the US seeks to preserve its interests.
The document summarizes the visit of Iranian Ambassador Mehdi Sanaei to the European University at St. Petersburg. In his talk, the ambassador discussed the history and current state of Iran-Russia relations. He identified three main dimensions of cooperation - international, regional, and bilateral. While economic ties remain relatively small, both countries see value in their strategic partnership. The ambassador also spoke about Iran's experience with international sanctions and how Russia supported Iran during that difficult period. Relations are expected to continue strengthening as both nations work to establish a multipolar world order.
The Role of the United States in the Turkish Coup of 1960Sean Ryan
This paper examines the role of the US in the 1960 Turkish coup. It argues that US economic aid to Turkey in the 1950s, intended to stabilize the country and develop its economy, instead empowered corrupt Prime Minister Adnan Menderes. Menderes used the aid to consolidate political power rather than economic development, weakening Turkey's democracy and economy. By 1960, unrest led to a military coup removing Menderes. The paper aims to analyze primary sources on US-Turkish relations and the coup to better understand US influence on foreign regimes through economic aid.
How Americans are loved in Vietnam despite a brutal war? How China has to secure global leadership amid so many internal and external challenges? How China is eager to claim a global leadership - while living with Few Friends but with more Rivals? What are the prospective Political Reforms that follows the full commitment to UNIVERSAL HUMAN VALUES, CAN GIVE CHINA A WIDER GLOBAL RECOGNITION AND ACCEPTABILITY FOR ITS GLOBAL LEADERSHIP.
Policy And Politics International Perspective Paper, H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Spring 2006:
The Soviet economy and society declined in the following decades until General Secretary Mikhail GORBACHEV (1985-91) introduced glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring) in an effort to renovate Communism, but his initiatives unintentionally released forces that by December 1991 splintered the USSR into Russia and 14 other independent republics. Since then, Russia has struggled in its efforts to construct a democratic political system and market economy to replace the strict social, political, and economic controls of the Communist period. While some progress has been made on the economic front, recent years have seen a recentralization of power under Vladimir PUTIN and the erosion of emerging democratic institutions.
Maritime Territorial Disputes in East AsiaNian Yao
The maritime territorial disputes in East Asia are proving increasingly difficult to manage for several reasons:
1) Growing strategic and economic interests in the seas have led to heightened tensions as countries seek to assert control and access resources.
2) Nationalist sentiments among the public and governments have been mobilized in support of claims, undermining relations between disputing countries.
3) While international law provides some framework, its application is limited given sovereignty disputes require consent of all parties and there are differences in how Asian countries view international law compared to Western countries where current laws originated.
TAKING CENTRE STAGE
Richard Yetsenga and Ian Bremmer
Chief Economist, ANZ and President & Founder, Eurasia Group & GZERO Media
19 JUNE 2020
REMAKING THE GLOBAL ORDER
COVID-19 has shaken the global economy at a time when the geopolitical and economic order was already in flux.
U.S.A-China Relations, Is China A Friend Or An Enemy?, Policy And Politics International Perspective Paper, H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Spring 2006
Background: The relation between U.S.A and China has changed since 1980’s. Today the U.S is the world’s most developed country, while China is the world’s largest developing country. There is a cooperative partnership in many fields between USA and China which is beneficial for both sides. During the last two decades China has practiced remarkable changes. These changes compromise almost all aspects of Chinese society, as well as China’s relations with outside world. Since starting to open up and reform its economy in 1978, China has averaged 9.4 percent annual GDP growth, one of the highest growth rates in the world. China has also attracted hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign investment and more than a trillion dollars of domestic nonpublic investment. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has also increased dramatically, rotating China into the 2nd most important recipient of FDI, after the US.
Stephen Jimenez Global Political, Socio Economic And Security Forecast Late 2...StephenJimenez175
The document provides forecasts for several political, economic, and security issues from late 2009 through 2010. It predicts:
1) A major war breaking out between Israel and an Iranian-Syrian coalition within the next 18 months, possibly involving nuclear weapons.
2) The US economy will not fully recover in 2010 and unemployment will rise further, with a true fiscal and monetary crisis emerging in the next 4-7 years.
3) Within the next 24 months, the price of a barrel of oil will no longer be pegged to the US dollar, weakening US global economic influence.
1. William Henry Seward, an American politician in the 19th century, correctly predicted that the Pacific Ocean would become increasingly important globally due to rising trade and commerce between countries like the US and China.
2. Seward played a key role in expanding American influence and territory in the Pacific, including securing Alaska and Hawaii for the US. He also advocated for infrastructure like the transcontinental railroad to better connect the US to the Pacific coast.
3. In recent decades, Seward's vision of increased importance of the Pacific has come to pass, with the US and China emerging as the two dominant powers in the region due to their large and growing economies and trade relationships. Both countries are asserting their influence through diplomatic
This document summarizes China-Latin America economic relations over the past few decades and considers possible scenarios for how the relationship may evolve. It notes that China has become a major trading partner and investor for many Latin American countries as its demand for commodities has driven growth. However, concerns include Latin America's dependence on raw material exports and potential impacts from a slowdown in China's economy. The document explores scenarios for sustained Chinese growth, a moderate slowdown, or a hard landing and associated effects on Latin America. It also discusses the diverse policy responses across the region to Chinese engagement.
The World In 2025 Analyzing NIC Predictionsnbelarbi
This article provides a general analysis of some topics mentioned in the last National Intelligence Council report on the World in 2025. A focus is made on China’s potential, US challenges and the way to maintain the US leadership.
This document discusses Russia's growing interests in Central Asia after the 9/11 attacks. It outlines Russia's security, economic, and political interests in the region. Russia aims to counter threats from Islamic extremism emanating from Afghanistan. It also wants to restore Soviet-era trade infrastructure and influence over Central Asian energy exports to Europe. Russia uses its dominance in the energy sector and state-owned banks/companies to consolidate political and economic power in the region, especially in Kazakhstan. It also aims to have more involvement in Central Asian water resources and hydroelectric projects. Overall, the document examines how Russia is pursuing greater influence in Central Asia through diplomatic and economic means rather than military force.
The united states and china confronts in the contemporary ageFernando Alcoforado
The document discusses the economic and military rise of China and its implications for the United States' global power. As China's economy grows, it may surpass the U.S. as the world's largest economy by the mid-21st century. Some analysts argue this will inevitably lead to conflicts of interest and possible military confrontation between the two countries. The U.S. is working to contain China's rise by strengthening military alliances with countries like Japan. However, the U.S. and China also have significant economic interdependence, making direct confrontation difficult. There are differing views within the U.S. on whether to pursue more cooperation or confrontation with China.
The document discusses national security issues facing India, including trends in geopolitics, economics, military affairs, and socio-cultural dimensions. It analyzes India's responses over time and the security situations in India's neighborhood, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, Nepal, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Key challenges include terrorism, regional instability, and the growing influence of other powers like China and Pakistan in the region.
This document summarizes the key findings of a joint opinion poll conducted by think tanks in Japan, the US, China, and South Korea regarding perceptions of the future of Northeast Asia. The poll found:
1) Majorities in all four countries believe China's influence in Asia will continue increasing in the next decade, while fewer see US influence increasing.
2) Opinions are divided on which countries can best handle world problems, with Japanese and Americans having more confidence in the US and EU while Chinese and South Koreans have more confidence in China.
3) There are also differences in perceptions of which countries should assume global leadership, with Japanese and Americans citing the US while Chinese cite Russia.
The document provides a quarterly market review and commentary on global economic and investment trends in Q1 2016. It summarizes that equities seesawed amid recession fears and dovish central bank policy shifts. Safe haven assets like US Treasuries and gold rallied. Central banks in Japan and Europe took further stimulus measures with negative interest rates, but their effectiveness is uncertain given still tepid growth and inflation. The outlook remains volatile given political and economic uncertainties.
In the contemporary era, the international geopolitical chess indicates the existence of three major players: the United States, China and Russia. From confrontation between these three major military powers may result alternative scenarios to the current that is characterized at the time by the US hegemony on the world stage since the end of the bipolar world that confronted the United States and the Soviet Union.
This document provides background information on Japanese energy policy and foreign policy behavior. It discusses several theories that have historically framed Japanese foreign policy, including "Aikido" which focuses on quiet, flexible diplomacy. It also examines the theory of "Gaiatsu" which suggests Japanese policy is heavily influenced by pressure from the US. The document then provides details on Japan's current energy situation, noting it imports over 99% of its energy needs and is highly dependent on oil. The aim of the paper appears to be analyzing Japan's energy-related foreign policy activities concerning oil and uranium to determine if its behavior aligns with historical theories or is evolving in new ways.
This document summarizes the complex history of cross-strait relations between Taiwan and mainland China. It discusses the three key actors - Taiwan, China, and the US - and how their relationships have evolved over time, particularly as Taiwan transitioned to democracy in the late 20th century and China's economic and political influence grew. It also provides historical context on Taiwan's governance under Chinese and Japanese rule prior to 1949, when the ROC government retreated to Taiwan after losing the Chinese civil war.
Dynamic Stability: US Strategy for a World in Transitionatlanticcouncil
This document proposes a strategic framework called "dynamic stability" for US strategy in a changing global landscape. It argues the world has entered a "Westphalian-Plus" era where nation-states must engage both with each other and powerful non-state actors, driven by disruptive technologies. The US previously pursued stability but now needs an approach that harnesses global changes, like shifting economic and military power to Asia. Dynamic stability involves adjusting the international system to new realities, engaging states and non-states, building coalitions, and having agile, resilient and transparent strategies. The US remains well-positioned for leadership by upholding values of prosperity, security and protecting global commons.
- The document summarizes the mid-year outlook from an investment firm. It discusses 5 major changes anticipated at the start of 2016 and analyzes how 3 have played out so far.
- It also analyzes the outlook for the US dollar, US earnings, equity recommendations, and fixed income positioning for the second half of 2016. Key sectors like healthcare and consumer discretionary are favored.
- The document lowers its gold price target range but remains neutral long-term. It suggests some commodities like agriculture could outperform due to Chinese economic changes. Select MLPs and REITs are viewed as opportunities.
This document provides an overview and key findings from the World Bank's Doing Business 2010 report. It begins with the top 30 economies on ease of doing business and what indicators are measured. Singapore ranks first for the fourth year. The document outlines reforms by region, with East Asia and Pacific having the third highest average rank and 17 of 24 economies reforming. Key reforms in the region included Indonesia streamlining property registration and Timor-Leste overhauling taxes. Challenges remain such as construction permit costs rising in Solomon Islands.
A time series analysis of the determinants of savings in namibiaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study on the determinants of savings in Namibia from 1991 to 2012. It reviews previous literature on savings determinants in developing countries. The study uses time series analysis including unit root tests, cointegration, and error correction models to analyze the relationship between savings and variables like income, inflation, population growth, deposit rates, and financial deepening in Namibia. The results found inflation and income have a positive impact on savings, while population growth negatively impacts savings. Deposit rates and financial deepening were found to have no significant impact. The study reinforces previous work and emphasizes the importance of improving income levels to achieve higher savings rates in Namibia.
A transformational generative approach towards understanding al-istifhamAlexander Decker
This document discusses a transformational-generative approach to understanding Al-Istifham, which refers to interrogative sentences in Arabic. It begins with an introduction to the origin and development of Arabic grammar. The paper then explains the theoretical framework of transformational-generative grammar that is used. Basic linguistic concepts and terms related to Arabic grammar are defined. The document analyzes how interrogative sentences in Arabic can be derived and transformed via tools from transformational-generative grammar, categorizing Al-Istifham into linguistic and literary questions.
How Americans are loved in Vietnam despite a brutal war? How China has to secure global leadership amid so many internal and external challenges? How China is eager to claim a global leadership - while living with Few Friends but with more Rivals? What are the prospective Political Reforms that follows the full commitment to UNIVERSAL HUMAN VALUES, CAN GIVE CHINA A WIDER GLOBAL RECOGNITION AND ACCEPTABILITY FOR ITS GLOBAL LEADERSHIP.
Policy And Politics International Perspective Paper, H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Spring 2006:
The Soviet economy and society declined in the following decades until General Secretary Mikhail GORBACHEV (1985-91) introduced glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring) in an effort to renovate Communism, but his initiatives unintentionally released forces that by December 1991 splintered the USSR into Russia and 14 other independent republics. Since then, Russia has struggled in its efforts to construct a democratic political system and market economy to replace the strict social, political, and economic controls of the Communist period. While some progress has been made on the economic front, recent years have seen a recentralization of power under Vladimir PUTIN and the erosion of emerging democratic institutions.
Maritime Territorial Disputes in East AsiaNian Yao
The maritime territorial disputes in East Asia are proving increasingly difficult to manage for several reasons:
1) Growing strategic and economic interests in the seas have led to heightened tensions as countries seek to assert control and access resources.
2) Nationalist sentiments among the public and governments have been mobilized in support of claims, undermining relations between disputing countries.
3) While international law provides some framework, its application is limited given sovereignty disputes require consent of all parties and there are differences in how Asian countries view international law compared to Western countries where current laws originated.
TAKING CENTRE STAGE
Richard Yetsenga and Ian Bremmer
Chief Economist, ANZ and President & Founder, Eurasia Group & GZERO Media
19 JUNE 2020
REMAKING THE GLOBAL ORDER
COVID-19 has shaken the global economy at a time when the geopolitical and economic order was already in flux.
U.S.A-China Relations, Is China A Friend Or An Enemy?, Policy And Politics International Perspective Paper, H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Spring 2006
Background: The relation between U.S.A and China has changed since 1980’s. Today the U.S is the world’s most developed country, while China is the world’s largest developing country. There is a cooperative partnership in many fields between USA and China which is beneficial for both sides. During the last two decades China has practiced remarkable changes. These changes compromise almost all aspects of Chinese society, as well as China’s relations with outside world. Since starting to open up and reform its economy in 1978, China has averaged 9.4 percent annual GDP growth, one of the highest growth rates in the world. China has also attracted hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign investment and more than a trillion dollars of domestic nonpublic investment. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has also increased dramatically, rotating China into the 2nd most important recipient of FDI, after the US.
Stephen Jimenez Global Political, Socio Economic And Security Forecast Late 2...StephenJimenez175
The document provides forecasts for several political, economic, and security issues from late 2009 through 2010. It predicts:
1) A major war breaking out between Israel and an Iranian-Syrian coalition within the next 18 months, possibly involving nuclear weapons.
2) The US economy will not fully recover in 2010 and unemployment will rise further, with a true fiscal and monetary crisis emerging in the next 4-7 years.
3) Within the next 24 months, the price of a barrel of oil will no longer be pegged to the US dollar, weakening US global economic influence.
1. William Henry Seward, an American politician in the 19th century, correctly predicted that the Pacific Ocean would become increasingly important globally due to rising trade and commerce between countries like the US and China.
2. Seward played a key role in expanding American influence and territory in the Pacific, including securing Alaska and Hawaii for the US. He also advocated for infrastructure like the transcontinental railroad to better connect the US to the Pacific coast.
3. In recent decades, Seward's vision of increased importance of the Pacific has come to pass, with the US and China emerging as the two dominant powers in the region due to their large and growing economies and trade relationships. Both countries are asserting their influence through diplomatic
This document summarizes China-Latin America economic relations over the past few decades and considers possible scenarios for how the relationship may evolve. It notes that China has become a major trading partner and investor for many Latin American countries as its demand for commodities has driven growth. However, concerns include Latin America's dependence on raw material exports and potential impacts from a slowdown in China's economy. The document explores scenarios for sustained Chinese growth, a moderate slowdown, or a hard landing and associated effects on Latin America. It also discusses the diverse policy responses across the region to Chinese engagement.
The World In 2025 Analyzing NIC Predictionsnbelarbi
This article provides a general analysis of some topics mentioned in the last National Intelligence Council report on the World in 2025. A focus is made on China’s potential, US challenges and the way to maintain the US leadership.
This document discusses Russia's growing interests in Central Asia after the 9/11 attacks. It outlines Russia's security, economic, and political interests in the region. Russia aims to counter threats from Islamic extremism emanating from Afghanistan. It also wants to restore Soviet-era trade infrastructure and influence over Central Asian energy exports to Europe. Russia uses its dominance in the energy sector and state-owned banks/companies to consolidate political and economic power in the region, especially in Kazakhstan. It also aims to have more involvement in Central Asian water resources and hydroelectric projects. Overall, the document examines how Russia is pursuing greater influence in Central Asia through diplomatic and economic means rather than military force.
The united states and china confronts in the contemporary ageFernando Alcoforado
The document discusses the economic and military rise of China and its implications for the United States' global power. As China's economy grows, it may surpass the U.S. as the world's largest economy by the mid-21st century. Some analysts argue this will inevitably lead to conflicts of interest and possible military confrontation between the two countries. The U.S. is working to contain China's rise by strengthening military alliances with countries like Japan. However, the U.S. and China also have significant economic interdependence, making direct confrontation difficult. There are differing views within the U.S. on whether to pursue more cooperation or confrontation with China.
The document discusses national security issues facing India, including trends in geopolitics, economics, military affairs, and socio-cultural dimensions. It analyzes India's responses over time and the security situations in India's neighborhood, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, Nepal, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Key challenges include terrorism, regional instability, and the growing influence of other powers like China and Pakistan in the region.
This document summarizes the key findings of a joint opinion poll conducted by think tanks in Japan, the US, China, and South Korea regarding perceptions of the future of Northeast Asia. The poll found:
1) Majorities in all four countries believe China's influence in Asia will continue increasing in the next decade, while fewer see US influence increasing.
2) Opinions are divided on which countries can best handle world problems, with Japanese and Americans having more confidence in the US and EU while Chinese and South Koreans have more confidence in China.
3) There are also differences in perceptions of which countries should assume global leadership, with Japanese and Americans citing the US while Chinese cite Russia.
The document provides a quarterly market review and commentary on global economic and investment trends in Q1 2016. It summarizes that equities seesawed amid recession fears and dovish central bank policy shifts. Safe haven assets like US Treasuries and gold rallied. Central banks in Japan and Europe took further stimulus measures with negative interest rates, but their effectiveness is uncertain given still tepid growth and inflation. The outlook remains volatile given political and economic uncertainties.
In the contemporary era, the international geopolitical chess indicates the existence of three major players: the United States, China and Russia. From confrontation between these three major military powers may result alternative scenarios to the current that is characterized at the time by the US hegemony on the world stage since the end of the bipolar world that confronted the United States and the Soviet Union.
This document provides background information on Japanese energy policy and foreign policy behavior. It discusses several theories that have historically framed Japanese foreign policy, including "Aikido" which focuses on quiet, flexible diplomacy. It also examines the theory of "Gaiatsu" which suggests Japanese policy is heavily influenced by pressure from the US. The document then provides details on Japan's current energy situation, noting it imports over 99% of its energy needs and is highly dependent on oil. The aim of the paper appears to be analyzing Japan's energy-related foreign policy activities concerning oil and uranium to determine if its behavior aligns with historical theories or is evolving in new ways.
This document summarizes the complex history of cross-strait relations between Taiwan and mainland China. It discusses the three key actors - Taiwan, China, and the US - and how their relationships have evolved over time, particularly as Taiwan transitioned to democracy in the late 20th century and China's economic and political influence grew. It also provides historical context on Taiwan's governance under Chinese and Japanese rule prior to 1949, when the ROC government retreated to Taiwan after losing the Chinese civil war.
Dynamic Stability: US Strategy for a World in Transitionatlanticcouncil
This document proposes a strategic framework called "dynamic stability" for US strategy in a changing global landscape. It argues the world has entered a "Westphalian-Plus" era where nation-states must engage both with each other and powerful non-state actors, driven by disruptive technologies. The US previously pursued stability but now needs an approach that harnesses global changes, like shifting economic and military power to Asia. Dynamic stability involves adjusting the international system to new realities, engaging states and non-states, building coalitions, and having agile, resilient and transparent strategies. The US remains well-positioned for leadership by upholding values of prosperity, security and protecting global commons.
- The document summarizes the mid-year outlook from an investment firm. It discusses 5 major changes anticipated at the start of 2016 and analyzes how 3 have played out so far.
- It also analyzes the outlook for the US dollar, US earnings, equity recommendations, and fixed income positioning for the second half of 2016. Key sectors like healthcare and consumer discretionary are favored.
- The document lowers its gold price target range but remains neutral long-term. It suggests some commodities like agriculture could outperform due to Chinese economic changes. Select MLPs and REITs are viewed as opportunities.
This document provides an overview and key findings from the World Bank's Doing Business 2010 report. It begins with the top 30 economies on ease of doing business and what indicators are measured. Singapore ranks first for the fourth year. The document outlines reforms by region, with East Asia and Pacific having the third highest average rank and 17 of 24 economies reforming. Key reforms in the region included Indonesia streamlining property registration and Timor-Leste overhauling taxes. Challenges remain such as construction permit costs rising in Solomon Islands.
A time series analysis of the determinants of savings in namibiaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study on the determinants of savings in Namibia from 1991 to 2012. It reviews previous literature on savings determinants in developing countries. The study uses time series analysis including unit root tests, cointegration, and error correction models to analyze the relationship between savings and variables like income, inflation, population growth, deposit rates, and financial deepening in Namibia. The results found inflation and income have a positive impact on savings, while population growth negatively impacts savings. Deposit rates and financial deepening were found to have no significant impact. The study reinforces previous work and emphasizes the importance of improving income levels to achieve higher savings rates in Namibia.
A transformational generative approach towards understanding al-istifhamAlexander Decker
This document discusses a transformational-generative approach to understanding Al-Istifham, which refers to interrogative sentences in Arabic. It begins with an introduction to the origin and development of Arabic grammar. The paper then explains the theoretical framework of transformational-generative grammar that is used. Basic linguistic concepts and terms related to Arabic grammar are defined. The document analyzes how interrogative sentences in Arabic can be derived and transformed via tools from transformational-generative grammar, categorizing Al-Istifham into linguistic and literary questions.
A trends of salmonella and antibiotic resistanceAlexander Decker
This document provides a review of trends in Salmonella and antibiotic resistance. It begins with an introduction to Salmonella as a facultative anaerobe that causes nontyphoidal salmonellosis. The emergence of antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella is then discussed. The document proceeds to cover the historical perspective and classification of Salmonella, definitions of antimicrobials and antibiotic resistance, and mechanisms of antibiotic resistance in Salmonella including modification or destruction of antimicrobial agents, efflux pumps, modification of antibiotic targets, and decreased membrane permeability. Specific resistance mechanisms are discussed for several classes of antimicrobials.
A unique common fixed point theorems in generalized dAlexander Decker
This document presents definitions and properties related to generalized D*-metric spaces and establishes some common fixed point theorems for contractive type mappings in these spaces. It begins by introducing D*-metric spaces and generalized D*-metric spaces, defines concepts like convergence and Cauchy sequences. It presents lemmas showing the uniqueness of limits in these spaces and the equivalence of different definitions of convergence. The goal of the paper is then stated as obtaining a unique common fixed point theorem for generalized D*-metric spaces.
A universal model for managing the marketing executives in nigerian banksAlexander Decker
This document discusses a study that aimed to synthesize motivation theories into a universal model for managing marketing executives in Nigerian banks. The study was guided by Maslow and McGregor's theories. A sample of 303 marketing executives was used. The results showed that managers will be most effective at motivating marketing executives if they consider individual needs and create challenging but attainable goals. The emerged model suggests managers should provide job satisfaction by tailoring assignments to abilities and monitoring performance with feedback. This addresses confusion faced by Nigerian bank managers in determining effective motivation strategies.
A usability evaluation framework for b2 c e commerce websitesAlexander Decker
This document presents a framework for evaluating the usability of B2C e-commerce websites. It involves user testing methods like usability testing and interviews to identify usability problems in areas like navigation, design, purchasing processes, and customer service. The framework specifies goals for the evaluation, determines which website aspects to evaluate, and identifies target users. It then describes collecting data through user testing and analyzing the results to identify usability problems and suggest improvements.
Taiwan The Tail That Wags DogsMichael McDevittAsia Po.docxdeanmtaylor1545
Taiwan: The Tail That Wags Dogs
Michael McDevitt
Asia Policy, Number 1, January 2006, pp. 69-93 (Article)
Published by National Bureau of Asian Research
DOI: 10.1353/asp.2006.0011
For additional information about this article
Access provided by Florida International University (9 Sep 2013 16:14 GMT)
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/asp/summary/v001/1.mcdevitt.html
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/asp/summary/v001/1.mcdevitt.html
asia p olicy, number 1 (january 2006 ), 69–93
Michael McDevitt (Rear Admiral, retired) is Vice President and Director
of the Center for Naval Analyses at the CNA Corporation. These views are his
own and do not represent the views of the CNA Corporation. He can be reached
at <[email protected]>.
keywords: taiwan; china; united states; japan; foreign relations
Taiwan: The Tail That Wags Dogs
Michael McDevitt
[ 70 ]
execu tive summary
asia p olicy
This essay explores how Taiwan has been able to seize the political initiative
from China, Japan, and the United States.
main argument
Taiwan has attained this leverage due to the interrelationship of four factors:
• Strategic considerations stemming from Taiwan’s geographic position lead
Tokyo and Washington to prefer the status quo, while leading China to
strive for reunification. China’s increasing military power, however, may
suggest a Chinese intention to change the status quo.
• Shared democratic values and the fact that the “democracy issue” has great-
ly prolonged the timetable for reunification give Taipei political influence
in both Washington and Tokyo.
• China’s constant threats of force actually empower Taipei in its relationship
with Washington, and cause the United States to plan for the worst.
• Taiwan is a litmus test of U.S. credibility as an ally, a condition that in turn
creates a perception on the island that U.S. military backing is uncondi-
tional.
policy implications
• Taipei’s high-risk diplomatic approach carries with it the very real possibil-
ity of miscalculation, which could easily lead to great power conflict.
• The United States would benefit from exploring with Beijing ways in which
to demilitarize the issue of Taiwan independence so that the threat of great
power conflict over Taiwan is greatly moderated.
• Tensions may eventually lessen substantially if Beijing can be encouraged to
substitute political deterrence for military deterrence.
• In order to ensure that the U.S. position in the region would survive a
Taipei-provoked conflict should the United States choose not to become
directly involved, Washington can undertake extensive talks with Japan de-
signed to ensure that Japan does not lose confidence in Washington.
organization of the essay
The first four sections of the essay respectively explore the four factors of the
complex U.S.-Taiwan-Japan-China relationship outlined above:
Geostrategic Issues and Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..
Taiwan The Tail That Wags DogsMichael McDevittAsia Po.docxperryk1
This document summarizes and analyzes a journal article about Taiwan's strategic importance and influence in its relationships with China, Japan, and the United States. The summary identifies four key factors that have allowed Taiwan to seize diplomatic initiative: 1) Taiwan's geographic position which leads China to seek reunification but Japan and US to prefer status quo, 2) Shared democratic values with Japan and US, 3) China's threats of force which empower Taiwan, and 4) Taiwan being a test of US credibility which Taiwan relies on. The document then analyzes each factor in turn and discusses policy implications, including the need to reduce tensions to prevent miscalculation leading to conflict.
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The Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit to China where he will talk with his Chinese hosts about the many issues between United States and China. In particular the talks happens in a particular year for both countries and also for the whole world, in a context of low economic growth.
In this article the most important issues between China and United States will be considered and also the implications for the future of their relation and for the whole world.First, the visit will follow the meeting in person that President Xi Jinping and Joe Biden held in Indonesia during the G20 summit last November. It was their first meeting as leaders of their countries. At this meeting it was announced that Secretary of State Blinken will visit China during the first months of 2023.
The visit will happen in a moment when the world economy is in a difficult situation. According to the IMF, there is a probability that in this year 2023, of the three engines of world economy, two will experiment zero or negative growth. In Europe economic growth could be negative because, among other things, the war in Ukraine increased price of energy and food, and inflation is putting a pressure in the economy. Also, in United States the fight against inflations has increased interest rates and this is also putting a drag in economic growth with some projections pointing to a zero growth in its economy. The only engine that could move the world economy is China, but this country is also facing some challenges, among them, the normalization after the dismantling of its zero covid-19 policy.
Comparative Analysis of US China Relations during Trump Administrationijtsrd
This article examines crucial issues in the US Chinese relations during the Trump administration considering the issues like Trade war and geopolitical situation in Asia Pacific region. This research explores the main directions of Sino American relations in the period of presidency of Donald Trump, as well as the recent trends and perspectives on cooperation between the two states. The following conclusions are coming to end First, the U.S. government can continue, in the nearest future, to put pressure on China on issues such as human rights, civil society development, and Internet freedom. This pressure will be reflected in China, especially among educated youth and the growing middle class. The preservation and consolidation of American positions in the waters of the Pacific and Indian Oceans is forcing Beijing to focus on the resource and transit potential of mainland Eurasia One Belt One Road , highlighting the growing importance of Russia and Central Asia for China’s strategy. Second, the U.S. administration’s attitude toward China remains moderate, despite occasional changes. The tendency for bilateral dialogue and mutually beneficial cooperation prevails. Third, there was unequivocal support from both houses of Congress for the Trump administration’s new tough demands on China. Existing problems between the parties, in particular, China’s close cooperation with Russia, further complicate the situation to the detriment of China. Fourth, the positive development of bilateral relations will contribute to ensuring international political, economic, environmental stability and global security. Fifth, China’s economic development and growing international position are intensifying competition in bilateral relations not only in the Asia Pacific region, but also in the rest of regions of the Globe. Uchkun Dustov "Comparative Analysis of US- China Relations during Trump Administration" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-2 , February 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38540.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/humanities-and-the-arts/political-science/38540/comparative-analysis-of-us-china-relations-during-trump-administration/uchkun-dustov
The document discusses America's strategic focus on the Asia-Pacific region, known as the "Pacific Pivot." While the U.S. has talked about prioritizing the region, there remains a disconnect between rhetoric and action. The Asia Pacific Priority Act aims to maintain U.S. power projection and reassure allies, but more may need to be done to clarify American interests and involvement in the region. Specifically, the U.S. needs to decide what capabilities and investments it is willing to make to remain engaged and balance China's influence, while also cultivating relationships with other regional partners.
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Sino-US Relations in the 21st Century: Is a Sino-US War Possible?Bright Mhango
This paper grapples with this question and concludes that war between the two can break out even tonight if certain conditions are met. However, for now, with China’s military not advanced enough, any war would have to be started by the US. And it so happens that the US actually has enough motives to engage China before it fully modernizes but cannot just do so from the blue. The US is thus trying to force China to give it the reason to justify a war to its increasingly war skeptical allies and domestic publics.
The reasons why the two cannot fight for now range from interdependence, the fact that Taiwan has not declared independence yet and the fact that Sino-Japan relations do not boil beyond the Yasukuni rhetoric. It is also due to the fact that China is powerless and relies on the US for many things such as access to lucrative markets and technology. The characters and personalities of the leaders of the two countries are also partly the reason there is not enough bad-blood to sound the war cry yet.
This document provides a Chinese perspective on China's changing role in Asia. It examines China's response to perceptions of its rise and discusses the principal concerns that shape its strategy toward Asia. China's strategy is also considered in relation to its relations with the United States. The document analyzes China's approach to regional economic cooperation and security issues, as well as its strategic vision for its role in the regional and global order.
The China factor in US alliances in East Asia and the Asia Pacific 1Shree Silwal
What are China’s perception and concerns regarding the US alliance system as a whole and regarding specific bilateral military alliances of the US?
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An armed conflict between the US and China will not end well for the US. US cannot, BY TREATY, defend Taiwan in case of China trying to annex her. It can only help Taiwan defend herself.
{This is the first part of a talk given to the students of the University of Tokyo, JAPAN.
This document summarizes the key discussions and conclusions from a conference on Japan's increasing global role. The conference brought together senior Japanese, EU, and US policymakers and business leaders. There was a debate around whether Japan is increasingly looking inward or remains an active global player. While Japan faces challenges like political instability and an aging population, it remains an important economic and political stakeholder internationally. Japan contributes significantly to global challenges like climate change and supports international institutions. However, it needs to better communicate its role and define its relationships with countries like China to overcome a sense of introspection and assume greater leadership.
This document summarizes the key discussions and conclusions from a conference on Japan's increasing global role. The conference brought together senior Japanese, EU, and US policymakers and business leaders. There was a debate around whether Japan is increasingly looking inward or remains an active global player. While Japan faces challenges like political instability and an aging population, it remains an important economic and political stakeholder internationally. Japan contributes significantly to global challenges like climate change and supports international institutions. However, it needs to better communicate its role and define its relationships with countries like China to overcome a sense of introspection and assume greater leadership.
The economic crisis has diminished the US's economic and ideological influence globally. In response, East Asian countries have pursued greater economic cooperation and regional institutions like the Chiang Mai Initiative to reduce reliance on the US and establish an East Asian identity. Japan in particular has taken on more of a leadership role in pushing for regional monetary cooperation as a way for Asia to insulate itself from external influences and balance dependence on the US dollar, such as by promoting use of the yen. If East Asian economic integration continues with China as the center, it will likely further consolidate East Asian institutions, though questions remain about dealing with the region's challenges.
The document discusses rising tensions between China, Japan, and the US that mirror tensions prior to World War I. There are concerns that a small incident, such as a conflict over the Diaoyu Islands, could escalate due to military nationalism in China and Japan, miscommunications, and alliance commitments dragging the US into a wider war. The Shinzo Abe government in Japan includes nationalist figures more likely to confront China, while China uses nationalism to bolster its government. A regional war could have negative economic and political consequences for all countries involved.
- America's renewed military aggression is a front for its financial war strategy, according to China's perspective. America uses the dollar's global role to artificially create economic booms and busts in other countries for its own benefit.
- China sees America as having transitioned to a "virtual economy" reliant on printing money and issuing debt. America draws dollars back in from overseas markets by raising risks in those markets and lowering risks in U.S. markets like Treasuries.
- China believes America caused the Latin American debt crisis of the 1970s and Asian Financial Crisis of the 1990s through these dollar pump-and-dump operations. China will coordinate with Russia to respond to continued American aggression.
Southeast Asian perceptions of China are shaped by several factors including the power differential between China and ASEAN states, China's claims over the South China Sea, China's growing military capabilities, China's past support for insurgent movements in the region, and fears over China's influence on ethnic Chinese communities. Suspicion of China is strongest in Indonesia and the Philippines due to historical tensions, but also exists to some degree in other ASEAN states except Myanmar and Thailand. Effective defense cooperation among ASEAN states has been lacking due to both domestic constraints and differing views on the threat posed by China. Singapore maintains good economic ties with China but also sees the US as an important balancing power against potential Chinese dominance in the region.
How china could remain power in south east asiasonichiba
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Strategy on east asia the strategic choices for beijing, tokyo and moscow
1. International Affairs and Global Strategy www.iiste.org
ISSN 2224-574X (Paper) ISSN 2224-8951 (Online)
Vol 4, 2012
The Impact of Washington “Returning to Asia” Strategy on
East Asia: the Strategic Choices for Beijing, Tokyo and
Moscow
Ge CUI
Asia-Pacific Research Center, Dalian University of Technology, 2, Linggong Road, 116024, Dalian, China
* E-mail of the corresponding author: cuige5890516@yahoo.com.cn
Abstract
At the end of 2011, Washington proclaimed, in high-profile, its “Returning to Asia” strategy. Subsequently,
US launched a series of policy to fulfill this strategy: promoting TPP in APEC summit and redeploying the
military arrangement in West Pacific. Washington’s new strategy is definitely to cast impact on East Asia
and dramatically alter the present situation in this area. Accordingly, regional powers, such as China, Japan
and Russia, will adjust their strategy to the new situation and make their own strategic choices.
Keywords: Returning to Asia, Strategy, East Asia
For the first ten years after the end of the Cold War, the US had been engaged in NATO’s eastward
expansion, which is to stabilize the countries originally manipulated by the former Soviet Union. By the
end of last century, Washington had already started to shift its focus to Asia-Pacific. However, “9.11” attack
dramatically altered the agenda of Uncle Sam’s foreign policy. It took Washington 10 years to fight against
terrorists around the globe. With the end of two major wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Obama
administration made up its mind to reinvest time and energy in Asia-Pacific, as the State Secretary, Hillary
Clinton claimed, “one of the most important tasks of American statecraft over the next decade will therefore
be to lock in a substantially increased investment -- diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise -- in the
Asia-Pacific region.”2
1. Washington’s "Returning to Asia" strategy
The so-called "returning to Asia" strategy means that the United States seeks to establish, maintain and
reinforce its leading status in Asia again. There are two pillars for Washington’s “Returning to Asia”
strategy, one is the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) in APEC framework, the other is redeployment of its
military presence in west Pacific.
TPP is a brand new thing, which was initiated in 2000 by Brunei, Singapore, New Zealand and Chile, for
the sake of increasing their export to US. It was not until 2009 when Washington had made its decision to
join in this organization that TPP had got more attention. In the APEC summit 2011, altogether there are 9
countries that signed the Framework Agreement, and Japan, Canada and Mexico showed their willingness
to the negotiations. US’ favor on TPP rests on three reasons: firstly, TPP would be conducive to US’ goal of
doubling its export in five years, which had been proposed by Obama in his election campaign. And
whether the task could be fulfilled would directly cast the impact on his running for reelection. Secondly,
2
Hillary Clinton, America’s Pacific Century, Foreign Policy, Nov. 2011.
59
2. International Affairs and Global Strategy www.iiste.org
ISSN 2224-574X (Paper) ISSN 2224-8951 (Online)
Vol 4, 2012
TPP could be an effective makeup for the stagnation of Doha Development Agenda, in which US could
launch some breakthrough and set up some new rules or regulations for multilateral trade. Thirdly, with the
rapid development in the East Asia, the further unfold of economic integration, and Beijing’s growing clout
in this region, Washington was lingering in the fear of being isolated. US hope, through TPP, to play a
leading role in Asia-Pacific again. However, it is still too early to evaluate the effect of TPP, since
multilateral trade negotiation would always take time and it would arouse more collision as the talk goes
deeper.
In January of 2012, the White House announced Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st
Century Defense, which elaborated its new military strategy.3 Washington proclaimed that though US had
to reduce its overall capacity, its dominance in security would still be maintained through relocation of its
armed forces. US military strength in Asia-Pacific would be enhanced, while that in Europe, Africa and
Middle East be cut down. Just before and after the announcement of this government document, US
initiated and attended plenty of military exercises with many nations in Asia-Pacific to declare the return of
Washington’s military power, which makes the complex situation in East Asia more complicated.
In the near future, it is undoubted that Washington would input more in Asia-pacific. How the other powers
in this region, such as China, Japan and Russia, react to US’ new strategy, and what kind of strategic
choices Beijing, Tokyo and Moscow would make?
2. Strategic Choices for China, Japan and Russia
2.1 Beijing
Though the economic interdependence goes deeper between Washington and Beijing, the frictions and
conflicts between the two grow in quantity proportionally. Just after China surpassed Japan as the second
largest economy, US proclaimed in high-profile its “Returning to Asia” strategy. Subsequently, President
Obama promoted TPP in APEC summit, and military exercises initiated or attended by US in Asia-Pacific
had been launched one after another. It seems that another “Cold War” is approaching. What would be
Beijing’s response?
First, what kind of attitudes may China take to TPP? Even though it seems that the qualification for TPP
shuts China out, and TPP poses a challenge to the FTA (Free Trade Area) proposed by China and ASEAN,
whether it could be accepted by ASEAN is still unknown. Firstly, US would definitely manage to play a
leading role in TPP. But it is reluctant for ASEAN to accept any kind of FTA dominated either by US or by
China. ASEAN would still try to maintain its leadership in economic integration in East Asia. As the
negotiation goes deeper, the gap about the dissent in leadership would be wider. Secondly, China with its
biggest market and potential import capability would be more attractive than US. It will be a hard decision
for ASEAN to appease US by sacrificing their trade benefit with China, since now their economy relies
heavily on the trade with China. In 2011, the trade volume between ASEAN and China has reached $ 350
billion which ranks the third place just after that of Sino-US and Sino-Europe. Thirdly, the interdependency
of Korea on China has been enhanced while that on US has been lessened with each passing year. In 1990,
the interdependency of Korean economy on US is 27%, which has been downgraded to 9.3% in 2010;
3
The White House. Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities For 21st Century Defense. Jan 3rd, 2012.
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comparatively, the interdependency of Korean economy on China has upgraded from 2.9% to 20.4% in
these 20 years. Therefore, In the long run, a regional organization of economic integration without China
would be impossible. Neither could US isolate China out of TPP for a long time, nor would other nations
allow such thing to happen. What China should react now is to be open to TPP, comprehend its regulations,
research and analyze its discrimination policy for later use, and at the same time, continue advancing FTA
with ASEAN, and with Japan and Korea.
The South China Sea would be another hot spot for Washington’s new strategy. With Washington involved
in, the South China Sea disputes has become more complicated. Sometimes US false signals give nations
illusion that US was to be their sides if the clashes with China occur. US hope to distract China’s rapid
development through supporting the trouble-makers in China’s neighborhood, meanwhile carefully manage
to prevent the military conflict in this region. But the policy taken by Washington can be quite dangerous,
since its alliance may misjudge its strategy and directly drag US into the conflict with China. How can
Beijing cope with Washington’s dual character? On the one hand, Beijing should declare clearly to
Washington that China would not bargain with its territories. On the other hand, when conflicts really
happen, China should be more cautious about resort to force. Beijing should confine the conflicts in a small
scope and avoid escalating into full-blown war. It would be a good option to use trade leverage to make
disputing nations realize that what they get from the South China Sea would be much less than the loss of
trade with China.
To Japan, Beijing ought to be tougher and firmer than before to retort Tokyo’s aggression. If conflicts are
really unavoidable, China should be ready to using force to counterattack, for showing weakness would be
taken advantage by Japan’s Right-wing, which may result in catastrophic consequence. China supplanting
Japan as the second largest economy and relative lapse of US Empire, has already given the Right-wing an
excuse for rearmament. In the foreseeable future, Tokyo may tend to take more offensive policy to probe
Beijing’s tolerance for its militarization. China should clearly express its zero-tolerance about Japan’s
rearmament and be ready to take actions accordingly. Besides, for Korean Peninsula issue, Washington and
Beijing need to be more cooperative, and both Pyongyang and Seoul are to be warned to regulate their
actions, in order to avoid deterioration of the situation in East Asia.
Finally, Beijing needs to deepen the cooperation with the other member states of SCO (Shanghai
Cooperation Organization), for up to now, it is the only organization Beijing could rely on to confront the
conceivable more severe containing strategy from Washington. In SCO summit 2012, SCO approved its
first development plan — SCO Mid-Term Development Strategy Plan, which redefined the core interests
of members in the Middle Asia and emphasized the uniformity on the issues related to the overall strategy.
Now SCO has been indispensable for the peace and development of Middle East and casted strategic
effects on Chinese national security.
2.2 Tokyo
US-Japan alliance is the cornerstone for US Asian Policy. Since Yoshihiko Noda came to power, he made
great efforts to reinforce the alliance between the two countries and totally tilted to US. In April, 2012,
Yoshihiko Noda launched his first official visit to US to indicate the intimacy between the two allies.
President Obama and Secretary Clinton expressed, one after another, that Japan-US alliance is the most
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important partnership in East Asia. Since Diaoyu Island collision incident, Japan and US feel that China
more and more tends to take a tougher stance in disputes. Tokyo expects Washington to contain rising
China, and meanwhile, US needs Japan to continue functioning as a balance to China.
Besides, Japan plays a supporting role for US involvement in the South China Sea issue and wish to keep
China at bay. Japan discussed more cooperation with Philippine and backed Philippine in the disputes with
both the announcement and military equipments. Noda implied more than once, that Philippine and Japan
has shared value and strategic interests, and balancing China’s influence would be the most significant goal
for the two countries deepening cooperation. Recently, Tokyo has established strategic partnership with
Manila. In addition, Noda proposes a marine cooperation mechanism — Marine Forum of East Asia,
composed by officials and scholars of Southeast Asia nations, which maps out two themes: one is how to
guarantee the freedom of navigation; the other is how to implement international laws. Obviously, the
forum is aiming at rising China, and Japan means to establish such a multilateral cooperative framework
with ASEAN to contain China in South China Sea. In the following years, with the implicit support from
the White House, Japan would get more involved in and arouse more troubles for the South China Sea
disputes.
India is another country Japan wish to draw to its side to balance China. First, Indian Ocean has been
crowned as modern-day Silk Road, the only way which must be passed for energy transportation from
Middle East and Africa to East Asia. As Beijing has already built up ports along Indian Ocean in Myanmar,
Both Tokyo and New Delhi felt urgent to find partners in containing ever-growing influence of China in
Indian Ocean. On Dec. 19, 2011, Japan, US and India held the first trilateral dialogue, in which the three
parties probed into, besides marine security, humanitarian assistance and anti-terrorism, the issues related to
China. On the same day, after meeting Hilary, Koichiro Genba, Japanese foreign minister, indicated that
Japan and US was intensifying their strategic partnership with India. Even Wall Street Daily pointed out,
China is the unspoken target of the cooperation among three parties.
Economically, Japan shows its willingness to participate in TPP negotiations. Tokyo’s interest in TPP roots
in its economic downturn. Japan’s international competiveness and per capital GDP has descended from the
world No.1 and No.2 to No.27 and No. 19 respectively. Tokyo hopes, through TPP, to stimulate economy
by increasing export, and at the same time, to get some edges in its trade with China, which may pressure
China to import more rice and export more rare earths. However, whether Japan could join in TPP is still in
question. Yoshihiko Noda has already confronted the criticism from some Japan lawmakers for the
hastiness. Since most of the member states of TPP are small economies, which can’t provide market for
Japanese industrial products, while Japanese agriculture, heavily relying upon high-tariff protection, would
be severely struck by US, if Tokyo had to lower the tariff according to the TPP regulation.
Militarily, Japan has realized that the umbrella from US may not ensure its security, as China’s military
power grows and the gap between US and China narrows. Once US were kicked out of East Asia, Japan
would be sieged by Russia, China and North Korea, the nations with nuclear weapons. Therefore, Tokyo
decides to strengthen its self-defense capabilities. Japan’s National Defense Program Guidelines 2010 has
the tendency to do away with the “Basic Defense Force” approach that has characterized Japanese defense
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thinking before.4 Japan even thinks about reexamining Three Principles on Arms Exports and involving
itself in developing and producing arms with other countries. However, rearmament of Japan could be quite
dangerous, which would arouse its neighbor’s worry about revival of militarism which had brought the
Asians great bitterness and misery in the Second World War.
2.3 Moscow
With the unveiled US new strategy, Moscow also shifted its focus to the East. Sergei Lavrov, the head of
Russian National Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee, advocated and backed up “Look East” policy
just after US putting forward “returning to Asia” strategy. He claimed that it is time for Russia to shift its
focus to Asia and Russia is also a Pacific power. Sergei Razov, Russian Ambassador to China, also
underlined the enhancement of Russian economic strength in Asia-Pacific as one of the strategic priorities
for Moscow. The Kremlin expects to gear up the development of Russian Far East area with the help of the
economic boost in Asia-Pacific. He regards the relations between Russia and US in APEC as competitive
rather than cooperative.
In February, Putin, then Russian Prime Minister pointed out, in his diplomatic document Russia and the
changing world, that the key for Russian foreign policy is to promote the cooperation among BRICS. For
rejuvenation and security of Russia, Moscow must attach more importance to the status and role of Asia
and have scaled up its attention to and input in Asia. For implementation of Russian “Look East” Strategy,
the Putin administration set up a new government agency --the Ministry for the Development of Far East,
which functions differently from other ministries, since it only administers the issues and formulates
policies for Far East, which implies that the development of Far East has been upgraded to the height of the
national strategy.
The reelection of Putin as the President indicates that Kremlin would present tougher response to
Washington’s European Policy, and Asia-Pacific may function as another chip for the two countries’ game
in Europe. His recent declination to G8 in Camp David, but presence in SCO in Beijing, has clearly
revealed that the new President’s may prefer closer relations with its Asia neighbor rather than appeasing
the only superpower.
Putin refuted the China Threat Theory and asserted that China does not strive for hegemony, but functions
as a constructive power both in regional and global issues. Putin also emphasized that the prosperity and
stability in China is crucial to development of Russia, and the prospects for cooperation between the two
states are broad and unlimited. Russia needs a prosperous and stable China, and China needs a powerful
and successful Russia. Razov has also reiterated the importance for strengthening the Asia-Pacific regional
security cooperation between China and Russia. He pointed out that both Moscow and Beijing would
engage more in the peace and security of this area. Razov criticized that it is unwise and ineffective that
some nation attempted to establish an exclusive military alliance and plan plenty of joint military exercises,
which would ruin rather than promote the peace and development in Asia-Pacific. In the predictable future,
based on common interest and cooperation in SCO, Moscow and Beijing would remain a closer
4
Axel Berkofsky. Japanese Defense and Security Policy and the “National Defense Program Guidelines” (NDPG):
Radical Changes or Business as Usual? ISPI. No.45. Feb., 2012
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near-alliance to confront the hegemony of Washington.
Meanwhile, with the Washington’s “returning” to Asia and further consolidation of US-Japan alliance, the
relation between Tokyo and Moscow may deteriorate. The American administration once said it was
sympathetic to Japan’s Northern Territories claims. For the exercise of sovereignty, Dmitry Medvedev
landed on Kuril Islands (Northern Territories) twice in 2010 and 2012 successively, as President and Prime
Minister respectively, which implicates that, on the one hand, Russia would input more on the development
of Far East; on the other hand, Moscow would be even tougher in dealing with disputes with Japan, US ally
in Asia.
3. Conclusion
Washington’s “Returning to Asia” strategy, beyond doubt, will cast profound impact on the peace and
development of East Asia. In the coming years, China, Russia, Japan, Korea and ASEAN, to some degree,
would adjust its strategy to the new situation accordingly. Though it is impossible for the emergence of
another Cold War in this region, it is probably that two blocs may appear: one is the China-Russia alliance
on the basis of SCO, the other is the group of US with its Asian allies based on US-Japan alliance.
References
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Washington D.C.:Center for Strategic and International Studies.
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Rise and U.S. Foreign Policy Transformation since 9/11. Political Perspectives, 5(3), 96-119.
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Ge CUI, Lecturer in Dalian University of Technology, Ph.D from Beijing Foreign Studies University in
2011, visiting Ph.D. Scholar in Columbia University, US, from 2008 to 2009, published extensively on US
foreign policy and Sino-US relations
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