Stephen Jimenez Global Political, Socio Economic And Security Forecast Late 2009 And 2010
By Stephen Jimenez, M.S. Political/International Security Consultant October 26, 2009 Global Political, Socio-Economic and Security Forecast Late 2009-2010
Background <ul><li>This forecast is a partial executive summary of a multi-year effort of collecting, analyzing and tracking open source information. </li></ul><ul><li>This effort incorporates selected information that was collected on historical factual events and actions that has been used as a basis for selected portions of this author’s forthcoming book: </li></ul><ul><li>This author has been provided a unique level of access, professional qualifications in future studies and analysis & open source intelligence, and a perspective through a multi-faceted career within defense, homeland security, intelligence and political circles that has provided: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Selected sources for this forecast that include personal off the record comments and informal interviews with men and women from across the United States including numerous political activists. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Access to selected political elites from across the U.S. political spectrum. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>First hand observations while travelling in numerous States in the east and western United States during this economic crisis. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The views and rights to this product are solely those of Stephen Jimenez’ and not those of any former employer or clients. </li></ul><ul><li>“ Men or women or a people who do not control their own finances or financial destiny have ceased to be free.” Stephen Jimenez </li></ul>This author over the last fifteen years has successfully forecasted, often years in advance a number of major global political, socio-economic and security trends that started with his successful forecast and profile of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director Woolsey that included he would resign, when no one in the media or political circles had reported on such a possible development. “ Death of the Republic: Rediscovering Commonsense in America: Restoring the Republic.”
Next Major Arab/Persian – Israeli War <ul><li>Stephen Jimenez forecasted in May 2008 the next major coming war in Middle East within approximately 18 months to various news organizations. </li></ul><ul><li>Iranian-Syrian Axis is threatening Middle East global peace and security through weapons of mass destruction development programs, state sponsored support for terrorism, and other efforts. </li></ul><ul><li>Gaza Fighting, U.S. Presidential election victory of Barak Obama combined with division within Israel’s cabinet temporarily delayed war in 2008-9: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>An Israeli first pre-emptive strike against Iranian WMD and possible Iranian targets in Syria will have foreseen and unforeseen consequences. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A Syrian-Iranian coalition first strike, if Iran has acquired WMD, may result in an Israeli Sampson Option if the success of that strike is as great or greater than the 1973 Arab coalitions success. </li></ul></ul>Stephen Jimenez accurately forecasted in January 2006 an upcoming Arab/Islamic-Israeli Conflict in 2006, which resulted in the accuracy of the forecast when the Hezbollah (Iranian/Syrian) – Israeli Proxy War occurred that summer.
Next Major Arab/Persian – Israeli War Continued <ul><li>U.S. & EU mixed signals and indecision are forcing Israeli action, and bringing the region and globe into the most significant conflict since the Cold War threatened global peace. </li></ul><ul><li>Arab Gulf states, Egypt and others may mistakenly be forced politically & religiously into joining an anti-Israel military coalition, if Israel, engages in first pre-emptive strike. </li></ul><ul><li>Short and decisive, intense, high casualty conflict may result in deceptive false sense of security and peace within the region for several years, and see the first release of a nuclear weapon since World War II due to EU and U.S. foreign policy and counter-proliferation failures . </li></ul>In 1996, Stephen Jimenez stated in his original research The Changing Nature of Arms Control and Proliferation: Dictated Arms Control Regimes, Counter-Proliferation, Terrorism and Organized Crime as presented in Japan at an international conference “that no dedicated weapons proliferating state has been stopped to date due to political pressure or sanctions, short of military action.” The same holds true for North Korea and Iran in the 21 st century.
U.S. Economy <ul><li>Long term forecast is U.S. economy will not recover in 2010, though the situation will ebb and flow with false signs of recovery based upon skewed data: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Partial Wall Street recovery is due to U.S. Federal Reserve, which is not a U.S. Government Agency printing “fiat” money. This is a false recovery . </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>U.S. unemployment is currently higher than U.S. Federal and State figures due to questionable political methodologies utilized, and will increase in 2010. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The same individuals who failed to forecast the economic crisis, were in denial as to it’s extent, and in selected cases contributed to the crisis will continue to be in denial and to mislead the American public. </li></ul></ul>Stephen Jimenez forecasted in his published article The Bloodless Financial Coup: America’s Future in the Balance on September 19, 2008 “bailing out selected companies and home owners will not address the core problems and most likely will not be a solution in the long term interests of everyone.” “ The Federal Reserve (a collection of international bankers) and global financiers are playing a game of divide and conquer with our political parties, our money, our freedoms, our national sovereignty, and our nation’s future. They were a significant part of the problem that resulted in the 1929 problem and used the crisis to solidify their control over the U.S. economy. They are engaged in a bloodless financial coup d’etat against our nation and our elected leaders. The historical record and even some of the current Federal Reserve Chairman’s statements on history and the Federal Reserve’s responsibilities for a part of the 1929 crisis show this to be the case.” Stephen Jimenez The Bloodless Financial Coup: America’s Future in the Balance
U.S. Economy Continued <ul><li>Unrestrained printing of U.S. currency and interference in the economy by U.S. Government and Federal Reserve will result in 2010 being the beginning of the coming true fiscal and monetary crisis that will occur within the next 4-7 years: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dumping of U.S. currency as the world’s reserve currency. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased dumping of U.S. currency holdings by our international creditors and developing nations. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Devaluation of U.S. currency with reduced purchasing power for U.S. Government, companies and citizens. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Continued high unemployment and underemployment within U.S. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Continued rise of political instability in U.S. and subsequent erosion of selected freedoms as political powers attempt to maintain power and political control through increased spending and other means. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The Federal Reserve and U.S. Gov’t were a significant part of the cause of the Great Depression and for the coming fiscal and monetary crisis. </li></ul>Stephen Jimenez forecasted in 2007 that the economic crisis would grow until the false perceived need for large government bailouts would occur due to failed government policies, a failure to acknowledge the scope of the economic crisis, and the consequences of being forced to implement a bankrupt policy of large bailouts under various guises.
Barrel of Oil: Not Pegged to U.S. Dollar <ul><li>Reckless U.S. fiscal and monetary policies and designed efforts by U.S. enemies and competitors will result in next 24 months seeing the price of a barrel of oil no longer in U.S. currency. </li></ul><ul><li>Contributing Factors: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased weakness of U.S. currency. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unrestrained growth of U.S. Debt. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Explosive growth of U.S. Deficit. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Posturing by U.S. competitors: EU and China. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Efforts by U.S. enemies: Iran, Venezuela and Cuba have created anti-U.S. Fund and other efforts to undermine U.S. as a superpower from a fiscal/monetary perspective. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Results in devastating economic consequences for U.S. </li></ul><ul><li>Could sow seeds for creation of new international currency in or beyond 2010. </li></ul>
Growing Political Instability within the U.S. <ul><li>Government of the people, by the people and for the people as laid out by America’s Founding Fathers is seen increasingly as not the case by many voters regardless of party affiliation or socio-economic status. </li></ul><ul><li>Consequences of long term reckless government fiscal, monetary, economic, and confiscatory polices have international consequences that cause: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hardship and degradation of quality of life and freedoms not seen since the Great Depression or possibly ever within the United States for the American people. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Results in further beginnings of serious political instability within the U.S. in 2010 with increasing intensity during next 4-7 years, if serious political and economic corrective actions to reverse poor previous decisions does not occur. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Unrestrained spending and taxation by all levels of government burdens and alienates a growing segment of U.S. population, which exacerbate economic crisis and suffering of growing segment of U.S. population. </li></ul><ul><li>Take over of private sector/private property “under color of law” continues. </li></ul><ul><li>Obama Administration and Democrats in Congress continue to target freedom of speech and religion “under the color of law.” </li></ul><ul><li>Reckless fiscal, monetary and bailout policies have resulted in: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Inability to recoup monies from explosive growth of debt and deficit spending. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long term ability for local, state and Federal governments to remain financially solvent has negative political and socio-economic ramifications. </li></ul></ul>
Growing Political Instability within the U.S. Continued <ul><li>Democratic Party </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasingly alienates many independents and conservative- moderate democratic party members and supporters. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasingly seen as being totally controlled by rich global elites such as George Soro’s and extreme left wing revolutionaries. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Republican Party </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Challenged by lack of credible leadership. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Continues to alienate grass roots GOP leadership and supporters due to lack of deeds matching their words, as party is seen led by Republicans In Name Only (RINO’s). </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Third Party Challenge of new “populist” party using Tea Party, 9-12 project, and other movements: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Individuals in such movement would compromise a significant cross section of Republicans, Democrats, Libertarians and Independents who generally are very patriotic and loyal citizens. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leadership could comprise individuals who do not explicitly re-affirm the rights given to all by the U.S. Constitution, nor that Americans have inalienable rights given to them as individuals and not by government. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Result could entail U.S. political system having populist leader or leaders who are “wolf in sheep’s clothing” in which the seeds are nurtured in 2010 for 2012, as warned in 1775 by Thomas Paine. </li></ul></ul>
Next Major Terrorist Attack on U.S. Soil <ul><li>No individual can forecast the exact date and time of an attack. </li></ul><ul><li>In 2010 the U.S. will become more vulnerable to a serious series of near simultaneous terrorists WMD attacks on U.S. soil due to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Depreciation of technology. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Questionable statements and policies by the current Administration in Washington D.C. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Failed U.S. Homeland Security border security, illegal immigration policies that continue to threaten U.S. security: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Increases ease and risk of terrorists smuggling the necessary materials into the U.S. for nuclear and/or biological attacks. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>A failure to recognize in Washington D.C. in eight years that the U.S. is not fighting a war against terrorism: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>We are engaged in a war against violent Islamic Fundamentalists, not peaceful Muslims or any other groups . </li></ul></ul>In 2007, Stephen Jimenez went on the record in a published OP-ED “ 9-11 Anniversary – The Next Terrorist Attack? ” forecasting that a future major attack on U.S. soil as large or larger 9-11 is a matter of when and not if.
Next Major Terrorist Attack on U.S. Soil Continued <ul><li>Al Qaeda and it’s global network are operating on a multi-year strategic planning cycle. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>They are endeavoring and have laid the political, socio-economic and religious groundwork for “America Hiroshima.” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Their intention is to attack multiple primary targets such as. NYC, D.C., LA, and others such as Dallas, Houston, Chicago, San Diego, Seattle, Miami, Atlanta and Boston for strategic political, social, economic reasons. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Osama bin Laden has issued multiple warnings and authorized the killing of several million Americans. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>These U.S. failures have resulted in an unfocused set of national security and homeland security strategies, polices and dissipation of precious U.S. resources. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ultimately, increasing the risk of attack in the U.S. in 2010 and over the longer term. </li></ul></ul>In 1996, Stephen Jimenez accurately forecasted the rise of global terrorism and weapons of mass destruction in his presented original research and oral discussions of The Changing Nature of Arms Control and Proliferation: Dictated Arms Control Regimes, Counter-Proliferation, Terrorism and Organized Crime , and later in an interview with the Japan Times at an international conference, five years before the September 11 th 2001 terrorist attacks.
Stephen Jimenez, M.S. Senior Independent Political/International Security Consultant Email: [email_address] Via LinkedIN: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/stephen-jimenez/8/883/356 <ul><li>Available for domestic and international political, security and business consulting services. Provides discrete: </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic and Operations Planning </li></ul><ul><li>Political Campaign and Government Affairs Strategy and Operations </li></ul><ul><li>Future Studies and Risk Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Recognized International Defense, Intelligence, Homeland Security, and Emergency Management Professional </li></ul><ul><li>Business Development and Competitive Business Intelligence </li></ul>