STEP Summer Seminar 2017 - Nick Molden, Emissions Analytics - Air Quality and Travel: Fixing the Internal Combustion Engine

1. Air Quality and Travel:
Fixing the internal combustion engine
Nick Molden
7 June 2017

2. 2
• Air quality is illegally high in many places
• Diesel engines are blamed
• The solution must be delivered fast, whatever the cost
• Confidence in official data is low
• Trust in manufacturers is low especially since #dieselgate
• Electrification, if it happens, cannot solve the problem quickly enough
• Cities are now taking unilateral action
• Consumer confusion is increasing
 This is a market and environmental problem
The context

3. 3
• Does the internal combustion engine have a future?
• Will new regulations work?
• And fast enough?
• How can cities set policy to encourage optimal outcome, quickly?
• Can manufacturers rebuild trust?
• What will the public and private cost be?
The questions

4. EMISSIONS ANALYTICS’ PROGRAMME
4

5. 5
• Founded in 2011
• Headquartered in UK, with operations in London, Los Angeles and Stuttgart
• Specialist in PEMS testing and data analysis
• 1400+ vehicles tested
• Largest commercially available database of real-world emissions data
• Works with OEMs, Tier 1/2 suppliers, fuel and chemical companies, regulators,
consultancies, consumer media
Emissions Analytics’ credentials

6. 6
Equipment
• SEMTECH-DS and -LDV
• Portable Emissions Measurement System
connects to tailpipe
• Captures emissions for CO2, CO, NO, NO2,
total hydrocarbons
• At 1 Hertz
• Air temperature, pressure, humidity
• GPS for speed and altitude
• Engine data via CANBUS
• Fuel economy derived via carbon balance
• Weight addition 100kg

7. 7

8. STATUS OF INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE
8

9. 9
Four commercial factors
Fuel efficiency Depreciation In-use CO2 NOx, CO
Diesel
Gasoline
Gasoline HEV
PHEV – short trip
PHEV – long trip
EV
• Diesel’s position is threatened unless low NOx can be demonstrated

10. 10
• Average EF now ~7
• Rising since 2015, back
almost to Euro 5 peaks
• Despite prospect of
Real Driving Emissions
• Growing variability
• Use of thermal
management and hot
re-start strategies?
• Beating first phase of
RDE in 2017?
NOx Exceedance Factor
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
02/11/2011
02/01/2012
02/03/2012
02/05/2012
02/07/2012
02/09/2012
02/11/2012
02/01/2013
02/03/2013
02/05/2013
02/07/2013
02/09/2013
02/11/2013
02/01/2014
02/03/2014
02/05/2014
02/07/2014
02/09/2014
02/11/2014
02/01/2015
02/03/2015
02/05/2015
02/07/2015
02/09/2015
02/11/2015
02/01/2016
02/03/2016
02/05/2016
02/07/2016
02/09/2016
02/11/2016
02/01/2017
ExceendanceFactor

11. 11
• Average Euro 6 diesel
13 times average
gasoline car
• But cleanest diesels
(5% percentile) are as
clean as the average
gasoline
• Achieving EF of 0.5
• Not being able to
discriminate within
Euro 6 is significant
market failure
Can diesels be clean?
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
14/09/2011 01/04/2012 18/10/2012 06/05/2013 22/11/2013 10/06/2014 27/12/2014 15/07/2015 31/01/2016 18/08/2016 06/03/2017
Real-worldNOx(g/km)
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Diesel Euro 6) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Gasoline Euro 5/6)
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Diesel Euro 10th Percentile) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Diesel Euro 6 5th Percentile)

12. 12
• … to some extent
• Almost 1 in 3 already
meet CF of 2.1
• ~20% meet CF of 1.5
• Will remove the dirtier
vehicles from the market
• But will not incentivise
the cleanest technology
available
• And will be slow – CF of
2.1 by 2019, 1.5 by 2021
Will Real Driving Emissions help?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
PercentageofvehiclestestedmeetingparticularCF
CF 2.1 CF 1.5 CF 1.0

13. 13
• Vastly better than NEDC as test, but…
• Lack of independence
• Potential leniencies in protocol
• Test cycle design, boundary conditions
• Conduct of test
• Conformity Factor
• Normalisation
• Much depends on in-service surveillance, performance of member states
• Timetable for introduction
Challenges for RDE

14. 14
Advance of gasoline HEVs
• HEVs historically had urban
MPG advantage
• Combined gains in ICE
efficiency and hybrid control
strategies
• May overtake diesel in
motorway driving this year
• Further advanced in US
• Even now, has emits less
CO2 than like-for-like diesel 40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Extra-urbanImperialMPG
Model Year
Linear (Diesel EU) Linear (Gasoline hybrid EU)

15. 15
• Target only real-world high polluting vehicles to restrict from urban areas
• Discriminate within Euro 6
• Incentivise manufacturers to go further and faster than new regulations
• Harness existing technology
• Minimise capital losses to private owners (fleets and individuals)
• Minimise taxpayer subsidies
• Avoid technology-biases
 A market solution to the environmental problem
Optimal outcome

16. INDEPENDENT RATINGS PROGRAMME
16

17. 17
• Vehicle rating scheme based on their real-world emissions and fuel economy
• Non-statutory complement to new regulations
• Discriminates between high and low emitters, even within Euro class – not just pass/fail
• Ratings are published and into the public domain for free at www.equaindex.com
• Manufacturers, fleets and consumer media can adopt as independent, voluntary standard
• Equivalent to New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP)
• Authoritative advisory board
 Robust, independent standard needed to measure and incentivise actions to bring about air
quality improvements
EQUA Index

18. 18
Rating bands
Rating Lower bound
(g/km, exclusive)
Upper bound
(g/km, exclusive)
External reference point
A 0.00 0.08 Meets Euro 6 limit for diesels, and meets Euro 4
limit for gasoline
B 0.08 0.12 Meets 1.5 Conformity Factor under Euro 6 Real
Driving Emissions regulation
C 0.12 0.18 Meets Euro 5 limit for diesels (and similar to 2.1
Conformity Factor under Euro 6 Real Driving
Emissions regulation)
D 0.18 0.25 Meets Euro 4 limit for diesels
E 0.25 0.50 Meets Euro 3 limit for diesels
F 0.50 0.75 No comparable Euro standard: roughly equal
to 6-8 times Euro 6 limit
G 0.75 1.00 Roughly equal to 8-12 times Euro 6 limit
H 1.00 None Roughly equal to 12+ times Euro 6 limit

19. 19
EQUA Aq

20. 20
EQUA CO2
• “A1” to “H5”
• A to H for absolute emissions
• 1 to 5 for proximity to official –
“honesty”
• 39% average CO2 excess – 189 g/km
• 16% higher emissions from petrol
compared to diesel
• 1.5 litre engines better than most highly
down-sized
• 2.0-3.0 litre engines most honest

21. 21
EQUA Mpg, EQUA 100
• MPG values for almost all vehicles on
sale in last five years
• Over 70,000 model variants
• Remainder extrapolated using new
proprietary model of real-world MPG,
based on technical characteristics of
vehicles
 Comprehensive alternative to official
system

22. Nick Molden, Chief Executive Officer
nick@emissionsanalytics.com
+44 (0) 20 7193 0489
+44 (0) 7765 105902
22