1) The document discusses approaches to improving air quality, noting that while technical analysis of air pollution issues is good, policy action has been lacking. Most local areas now have air quality management areas due to traffic pollution. 2) It argues that focusing solely on improving vehicle efficiency will not solve air quality problems, as total vehicle usage and mobility patterns must also change. Behavior change is necessary, not just technological fixes, and consumer motivations are complex. 3) New mobility services pose challenges and opportunities for reducing emissions if they encourage less private car ownership and use. However, they also risk increasing total travel if they make mobility constantly available. Overall, having faith in the ability to influence travel behaviors through policy may be key

1. Institute for Transport Studies
FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
Influencing travel behaviours
“STEP Summer Seminar 2017 – Transport & Air Quality – the Next 15 Years?
7th June 2017
Professor Jillian Anable
Professor of Transport and Energy
The Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds
J.L.Anable@leeds.ac.uk

2. Presentation outline
1. Air quality
the dominant
technical
approach
2. Time for a
revolution (or
two ..)?
3. Having faith
that mobility
patterns can
change

3. (1)
Air Quality ‘Management’ – the
dominant technical approach

4. Air Quality
Two+ decades of UK policy …
The analysis is excellent…
…..the action is lacking
When the LAQM process was designed in 1997, it was expected that there
would be “a handful of AQMAs in large cities and metropolitan areas” …
There are now 260 LAs (67%) with AQMAs (650 AQMAs) (39 in Scotland)
The Growth of LAs with AQMAs

5. Thank goodness for
Dieselgate?
• Work by Dr James Tate (ITS) to
survey real driving performance of the
UK driving fleet over several years
• VWG cars (Audi, Seat, Skoda, VW)
were compared to all other makes …
• … VWG cars were emitting approx.
35% less than all other 2.0 Litre Euro
5 diesel cars
• “If other manufacturers are not fitting
‘defeat devices’, they are still
manufacturing and setting up cars to
emit high amounts of the air quality
pollutant NOX in real urban driving
conditions.”
https://www.its.leeds.ac.uk/about/news/implications-of-the-vw-scandal/

6. Has diesel had its day?
• … but, efficiency gap between diesel and petrol cars has
almost decreased because diesel cars have continued to
increase in mass. This is a behavioural, not a technological
issue:
2000 2013
Diesel as a proportion of petroleum
products for road transport in EU
52% 71%
Diesel Petrol
Average gCO2/km of a new car registered
in EU in 2014
123.2 125.7
… so, a even a consumer shift away from diesel may not
harm CO2 targets significantly – but only if downsizing can
be encouraged …

7. Total vehicle usage not efficiency
makes most difference
 R2 = 0.016
Link to average car use
 R2 = 0.77
Link to average emissions
Data for private cars (class 4/4A vehicles) in each small area (2011)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185
Totalenergyuse('000kWhp.a.)
Emissions per vehicle (gCO2/km)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Totalenergyuse('000kWhp.a.)
Kms per person per year
Chatterton, T., Barnes, J., Wilson, R.E., Anable, J., Cairns, S. (2015) Use of a novel dataset to explore
spatial and social variations in car type, size, usage and emissions. Transportation Research D: Transport
and Environment, 39, pp.151-164
Total energy use more dependent on average mileages than types of vehicles owned

8. Air quality: Exposure versus
emissions
Exposure Emissions
Barnes, J. and Chatterton T. (Submitted) Emissions vs exposure: Increasing injustice from road traffic-related air pollution in
the United Kingdom, Submitted to Journal of Environmental Management.; Chatterton, T. and Barnes, J. (2016) A social and
spatial analysis of emissions from private vehicle use in Great Britain. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment,
207. pp. 99-110. ISSN 1743-3541 http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/AIR160101 ; Barnes, J. and Chatterton, T. (2016) An
environmental justice analysis of exposure to traffic-related pollutants in England and Wales. WIT Transactions on Ecology
and the Environment, 210. ISSN 1743-3541 http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/SDP160361
Poorest households are responsible for the least emissions but exposed to the most

9. The vehicle fleet is changing at different
rates in different places
Proportion of cars (per 1000)
that are hybrid electric
vehicles (2015)
Proportion of cars (per 1000)
that are plug-in electric
vehicles (2015)
www.motproject.net
Morton, C., Anable, J., Yeboah, G. and Cottrill, C. Exploring the Spatial Pattern of Demand in the Early Market for Electric
Vehicles: Evidence from the United Kingdom. Journal of Transport Geography (submitted)

10. Air quality: targeting the polluters
versus the polluted is key

11. (2)
Time for a revolution (or two …)?

12. ARE YOU READY FOR THE …
?

14. EV
EV
EV
EV TYRES
EV
EV
EV
*Accidents
*Parking pressures
*Road user conflicts
*Congestion
*Mineral extraction
*Energy supply &
emissions
*Disposal
*Subsidy
Power for EVs
Metals for EVs
An electric car IS JUST A CAR!

15. EV sales are NOT on track (CCC
target = 16% sales by 2020)

16. ICEs are preferred, even when
costs are the same
• The disutility associated with
the purchase price of an ICE is
smaller than for an EV
• Uncertainty and other cost
factors are as important
• Even where optimistic cost
and range parity is tested,
ICEs are preferred

17. It is the combination of running cost
savings and range that is important
• PHEVs emerge consistently as more popular than BEVs, even
where running cost savings information is given
• This demonstrates the trade-off between range and running
cost + lower perceived costs of battery replacement of PHEVs
926
2,191
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
BEV PHEV
EV New car sales May-17 (SMMT figures)
70% of EV sales
= PHEV in May
2017

18. Identity the degree to which people feel they
associate with ‘typical’ EV owners
Anxiety perceived suitability of these vehicles
particularly in relation to range
Parking Difficulty perceived ease of being able to charge a
vehicle at home
Willingness to pay willingness to pay more for plug-in technology
and/or environmental benefits
Symbolic motives capture the perceived status, social
acceptability and embarrassment or otherwise
of owning an EV.
ANABLE, J., et al. (2016) Consumer segmentation and demographic patterns.
Report for Energy Technologies Institute Plug-in Vehicles Infrastructure Project
(April 2011). Transport Research Laboratory Published Project Report PPR769.
Top 5 factors which influence current
EV ownership

19. We need to understand non-economically
rational consumer motivations
Brand, C., Cluzel, C. and Anable, J. (2017) Modeling the uptake of plug-in vehicles in a heterogeneous car market using a consumer
segmentation approach. Transportation Research A: Policy and Practice, 97: 121-136.

20. “Technology versus behaviour”
 ‘Behaviour change’ - a ‘nice to have’ bonus?
 Techno-fix - seen as more certain and alluring...
 BUT - even electric vehicles require a step
change in behaviour
 = Unhelpful polarisation

21. The MAAS* business model relies on
selling more and more mobility
(*Mobility As A Service)
car electric car uber autonomous car

22. It is a good idea for everyone else
to leave their car at home …

23. (3)
The real revolution: having faith
that mobility patterns can change
(If the idea of behaviour change offends
you, look away now …!)

24. Travel behaviour change is
not just about mode switch
 Purchasing - which cars are bought
 Driving - how cars are driven
 Use - how much cars are driven
 Mode choice
 Car occupancy
 Timing
 Route choice
 Frequency
 Trip-chaining
 Destinations / distance
 Parking
 Residential location choice
 Work location choice
 Substitution (eg with ICT)
24

25. Estimated CO2 from household cars by journey
purpose and length (2002/2006 average (GB))
DfT (2008) Carbon Pathways Analysis

26. Bounded Rationality
learning
search
Expectation
formation
motivation
Decision
making
Habit
Disruption
Adaptation
Wellbeing
HEURISTICS
Adapted from Simon

27. Kicking the habit …
Notions of habit and stability dominate the policy discourse
around mobility
but
we ignore variability in our data
Whilst aggregate level travel patterns might remain relatively
stable, individual travel patterns are subject to significant
churn (Goodwin 2009)
and
We do not collect good empirics during the process of
change when it happens

28. Examples of Churn
In the UK:
• > 2/3 people use multiple transport modes every week
• 76% of Londoners surveyed do not always travel to work in
the same way every day
• ≈50 % of office employees in one study did not know how
many days they would be in their office the next week
• There is significant variability in day to day departure
times + seasonal variability
• 50% of people change the main way they get to work every
decade (housing and employment)
http://www.fleximobility.solutions

29. Recent Trends (GB)

30. Recent Trends (England Only)

31. People think local and act
local
Scottish Omnibus Survey (Feb, Mar
2012) The omnibus surveys identified
the issues of greatest concern to be
pollution – in its broadest sense – first,
then climate change and dog fouling

32. Forthcoming research: Public
reaction to Low Emission Zones
• Concern for AQ might be high, but how acceptable will
restrictions on cars in urban areas be?
• New survey in Scotland (in field June 2017) to elicit
understanding and acceptance of LEZs, and relationships
to attitudes, economic stress and personality

33. Key points
 All changes (including technological ones) require behavior
change. This is not a bonus ‘add on’ …
 Behavior does change and can change – but we need more
empirics and less theory about the processes of change …
 Understanding what already changes (who, where, when,
why + winners and losers) will help develop acceptable
messages and policy
 Air quality issues have much more traction than climate
change issues with the public – there is
 Social influence is one of the most important engines of
behavior change – this is not a comfortable area for policy