Nick Molden presents on Defra's air quality plans at the IAQM's annual general meeting.

1. Insights from real-world emissions testing
in context of DEFRA consultation
Nick Molden
12 November 2015

2. 2
• Founded in 2011
• Headquartered in Winchester, with operations in London and Los Angeles
• 10 employees, currently expanding in EU
• Specialist in PEMS testing and data analysis
• 1000 vehicles tested
• Expert in high-efficiency real-world data collection
• RDE-compatible testing conducted since 2011
• Works with OEMs, Tier 1 suppliers, fuel and chemical companies, regulators, consultancies,
consumer media
Emissions Analytics’ credentials

3. 3
Benefits of PEMS
• Real on-road testing using PEMS is a powerful research
method
• Authentic and cost effective
• Works on all vehicle types
• No permanent vehicle modification required
• Flexible location
• High rate of data acquisition – 1 Hertz
• Precision approaching laboratory levels

4. 4
Equipment
• SEMTECH-DS and Ecostar-FEM
• Portable Emissions Measurement System
connects to tailpipe
• Captures emissions for CO2, CO, NO, NO2,
total hydrocarbons
• At 1 Hertz
• Air temperature, pressure, humidity
• GPS for speed and altitude
• Engine data via CANBUS
• Fuel economy derived via carbon balance
• Weight addition 100-250 pounds

5. INSIGHTS ON REAL-WORLD NOx
5

6. 6
ICCT report

7. 7
• Euro 5 and 6 diesels
• Rolling 12-month
average of exceedance
factor
• Step-change
improvement from Q2
2014
• But recent trend less
clear
• 5 have met standard
• Spikes due to 4x4s
NOx latest trends (1)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
02-11-11
02-01-12
02-03-12
02-05-12
02-07-12
02-09-12
02-11-12
02-01-13
02-03-13
02-05-13
02-07-13
02-09-13
02-11-13
02-01-14
02-03-14
02-05-14
02-07-14
02-09-14
02-11-14
02-01-15
02-03-15
02-05-15
ExceedanceFactor

8. 8
• Real-world reductions
more impressive
• Many now meeting
Euro 5 standard
• Tightening regulations
reducing divergence in
results
• Although still
occasional outliers
NOx latest trends (2)
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
Real-worldNOx(g/km)

9. 9
• Gasoline considered
not to have NOx
problem
• 21% of vehicles exceed
limit
• Slightly upwards trend
• Large engines and
larger vehicles account
for most vehicles
exceeding limit
NOx latest trends (3)
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
02-11-11
02-12-11
02-01-12
02-02-12
02-03-12
02-04-12
02-05-12
02-06-12
02-07-12
02-08-12
02-09-12
02-10-12
02-11-12
02-12-12
02-01-13
02-02-13
02-03-13
02-04-13
02-05-13
02-06-13
02-07-13
02-08-13
02-09-13
02-10-13
Real-worldNOx(g/km)

10. 10
• Not regulated
• But important for road-
side pollution
• Latest results suggest
NO2 levels meet total
NOx regulated level on
average
• Very low fNO2 is possible
with certain after-
treatment systems
NO2 latest trends
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
02-11-11
02-01-12
02-03-12
02-05-12
02-07-12
02-09-12
02-11-12
02-01-13
02-03-13
02-05-13
02-07-13
02-09-13
02-11-13
02-01-14
02-03-14
02-05-14
02-07-14
02-09-14
02-11-14
02-01-15
02-03-15
02-05-15
Real-worldNOx(g/km)

11. 11
• From Emissions Analytics’ database, at OEM level
• Based on 410 tests
• Diesel Euro 6 emissions falling – down from 5.1 conformity factor in Q1
NOx key statistics
Diesel Euro 5 Diesel Euro 6 Gasoline Euro 5/6
Real-world NOx (g/km) 0.773 0.299 0.049
Average Conformity Factor 4.3 3.7 0.8
fNO2 – minimum % 27 17 0
fNO2 – mean % 44 48 24
fNO2 – maximum % 66 80 72
fNO2 % – standard deviation 14.5 19.4 27.7

12. 12
Cold start and DPF regeneration
• Define cold start event
• Continuous event from coolant temperature low point up to full operation temperature
• Compare to similar cycle wholly at full operating temperature (1.0 = no uplift)
• 18% larger uplift for Euro 6 diesels than Euro 5s
• Gasoline has much higher uplift but on a low base
• Compare DPF regeneration to repeat immediately afterwards
• 37% average increase in NOx emissions during event
• NO2 significantly lower during event – 70% down on average
Diesel Euro 5 Diesel Euro 6 Gasoline Euro 5/6
Cold start uplift ratio 1.4 1.6 3.0
DPF regeneration uplift ratio 1.4 n/a n/a

13. 13
Prospects for Real Driving Emissions
• How effective will the new NOx regulations be? An improvement, but not that strict
• 80 mg/km NOx limit for diesels, compared to 31 mg/km in the US
• Add 2.1 conformity factor (1.5 from 2020/1)
• Add effect of boundary conditions, transfer function
• Add delay for all new models until 2019
• Add speed of propagation of new models through car parc
• Effect is a limit in real-world driving of 168+ mg/km
• But manufacturers will have to target a lower level due to measurement variability
• Estimated at ~30% by Joint Research Centre
• So effective target of 129+ mg/km
• x1.6 the diesel limit; x2.9 real-world gasoline

14. 14
• Proposed real-world
limits marked with
dotted lines
• 29% of Euro 6 diesels
tested already meet
2017/19 limit
• Some after-treatment
systems proven to be
effective in real-world
• Net effect of regulation
not as strict as required?
Regulated levels
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Sep-2011
Apr-2012
Oct-2012
May-2013
Nov-2013
Jun-2014
Dec-2014
Jul-2015
NOx(g/km)
Test date
Euro 5
Euro 6
Euro 5
2020/21
Euro 6
2017/19

15. FUEL ECONOMY CONTEXT
15

16. 16
• Gap between official and
real-world fuel economy
due to limitations of
official cycle
• Was growing by ~2%
points per year
• Latest data suggests
slowing of gap growth
• But also falls on absolute
fuel economy
• Due to effect of Euro 6?
• Creating a CO2 problem?
A growing gap?
-24.0%
-22.0%
-20.0%
-18.0%
-16.0%
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
2012 2013 2014 2015
VarianceofTrueMPGtoofficialcombined
Combinedfueleconomy
Model Year

17. Nick Molden, Chief Executive Officer
nick@emissionsanalytics.com
+44 (0) 20 7193 0489
+44 (0) 7765 105902
17