The document presents scenarios for transportation in Hanoi, Vietnam out to the year 2020 that illustrate the impacts of different policies on vehicle use, emissions, and urban development. Reasonable estimates for vehicle growth, travel distances, and emissions factors are used to model the effects of stronger pollution standards, improved fuel efficiency, and policies promoting public transit, walking, and biking. The scenarios show that acting now to shift toward more sustainable transportation options is important as Hanoi is already highly motorized and millions more residents are expected by 2020, so current decisions will largely determine the future shape and feel of the city.

1. EMBARQ ’s Scenarios for Hanoi ( Hans Oern (Contrans) and Prof. Tuan Le Anh, Hanoi Univ of Tech.) Illustrate and Quantify a World We Can’t See.. Yet Reasonable estimates for “present values” Growth in motorization taken from JICA Master Plan Illustrate choices for Hanoi’s leaders Quantitative Assumption-Driven Approach Vehicles, vehicle distances from JICA/ALMEC Fuel and emissions factors from expert judgment Total CO2 and other emissions calculated Results – Beyond CO2 Emissions Illustration of impacts of stronger pollution standards Illustration of impact of “fuel efficiency” on total fuel use Illustration of how a “livable cities” scenario might play out

2. Scenarios for Hanoi- JICA and EMBARQ 2020-VI Euro 4 2020-V Euro 3 2020-IV Euro 2 2020-I1 1.35 x Euro2 2020-I 1.35 x today 2005 1995 Emissions CoefficientCases EMBARQ Ambitious Medium Do nothing Medium Do nothing Present History Environment Emissions policy (EMBARQ) 30% 14.5% 6% 1% Public transport share BRT, Tram, etc. Trends Present History Transport system (JICA) High Mass Transit Let trends continue Present History Transport policy (JICA) 2020 2005 1995 Year

3. Key Approach, By Mode No of trips Trip length Load factor Vehicle kms Energy factor (l/km) Emission factor (gram/km) Total energy consumption, CO2 emissions Total emissions Simple Basis: Total_emission = Vehicle_kms * Emission_factor JICA EMBARQ

4. Vehicle Kilometers by Mode Source: Hanoi Master Plan

5. Passenger-Kilometers by Mode Source: Hanoi Master Plan, own estimates

6. Resulting CO emissions

7. Resulting CO2 emissions

8. Lesson: Act Now Hanoi Already Highly Motorized City Transport and Land Use Changing Several million more people expected in Hanoi by 2020 Land-use and housing development need long lead times Good collective transport system “connected to” MCs needed Vehicle Ownership Changes Most vehicles sold today will be in fleet in 2020 –almost too late Improving emissions controls, fuels takes several years Switch to cars may happen soon if not hindered Bigger Issues – The Shape and Feel of Hanoi A MC/foot friendly city different than a car-friendly city MC today are handy, but in the way of everyone! New enforcement routines need to be developed

9. Trân trọng cám ơn! Thank you http://embarq.wri.org/