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Energy cultures transport research overview
This document summarizes Dr Janet Stephenson's talk for the Transport Research Group on May 26, 2014. It discusses the Energy Cultures research programme, which has two parts - energy efficiency and future transport. It outlines the research team and gives highlights of some of the transport-related workstreams, including data mining of transport data, a national household survey, and research on businesses and energy use. It also discusses future transport topics like system dynamics modeling and case studies of transport transitions in New Zealand. The document provides concise updates and preliminary results from several of these research areas.
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Energy cultures transport research overview
- 1. Dr Janet Stephenson Talkfor Transport Research Group 26 May 2014
- 2. The Energy Culturesteam Prof. Gerry Carrington physics/ engineering Dr Paul Thorsnes economics Dr Janet Stephenson sociology/ human geography Prof. Rob Lawson consumer psychology Prof. Barry Barton law & policy Dr John Williams marketing Dr Rebecca Ford engineering Dr Sara Walton management Dr David Rees system dynamics Dr Charles Sullivan psychology; statistics Dr Michelle Scott psychology, HCI Dr Debbie Hopkins environmental sociology Dr Adam Doering social science; transport Alaric McCarthy Environmental science Dr Ben Wooliscroft macro-marketing Jane Khan, administrator
- 3. Energy Cultures researchprogramme Energy Cultures 1: 2009-2012 • Household space heating and water heating • Energy efficiency • Behaviour change http://otago.ourarchive.ac.nz/handle/10523/3747 http://researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz/handle/10289/7563 The Legal Framework for Energy Efficiency in Road Transport: A Critique of Legislation, Regulation and Policy in NZ Kimberley Jordan LLM
- 4. Energy Cultures 2:2012-2016 Part A: Energy efficiency MBIE RFP: “Considering the current pattern of energy usage in New Zealand homes, small businesses and transport, where do the ‘highest impact’ opportunities lie for energy savings and how can these be cost-effectively leveraged?” Part B: Future Transport MBIE RFP: “In transport, what is possible with new technologies and practices for energy efficiency and conservation and how can consumers be encouraged to adopt them and encourage markets to deliver them?”
- 5. Reference Panel • MoT •NZTA • Treasury • EECA • MBIE • Mercury Energy • Z Energy • Automobile Association • Express Couriers • Beacon Pathways • Sustainable Cities
- 6. Transport-related workstreams: Current –some results 1.1 Data mining 1.2 Household survey 1.3 Businesses & energy 2.2 Future transport – international & NZ perspectives 2.5a Transition agents in transport in NZ – scoping study 2.6 System dynamics modelling Just starting or upcoming 1.4 PEP software to support decisionmaking in transport choices 2.1 Business interest in adopting efficient/low carbon transport 2.3 Business opportunities in future transport 2.4 Law/policy reviews – electric vehicles; cycling ... so far 2.5b Driver motivations for efficient driving – instrinsic v extrinsic motivators 2.7 Youth mobility practices
- 7. 1.1 Data mining DrJohn Williams Data sources • Energy Data File • Energy in NZ • Energy Use survey (businesses) • NZ Household Travel Survey • MVR, WoF and Drivers' license databases • IEA Scoreboard • IEA Energy Statistics Prof Gerry Carrington
- 9. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Roadenergy/residentialenergy(%) Data for 2011from IEA Energy Statistics for OECD countries (2013 edn) Road energy use as a percent of residential energy use
- 10. International Energy Agency,“IEA Scoreboard 2011”, IEA/OECD, Paris (2011) Freight transportation: mode and energy use • Energy used for freight transport (per tonne-km) increased by about 40% between 1990 and 2008 • In 2008, this was more than 60% higher than the average for 18 IEA nations • NZ’s use of rail and water freight transport modes is much lower than the average for 18 IEA nations Low-hanging fruit??
- 11. 1.2 National householdsurvey Dr Ben Wooliscroft Partial results 700/2500 • Demographics • House & appliances • Energy behaviours • Travel • Attitudes • Aspirations • 143 questions!
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- 13. Transport opinions • 78%- there should be less (or a lot less) trips to school by car • 74% - there should be less (or a lot less) trips to work by car • 50% - there should be less (or a lot less trips) to go shopping by car • 51% agree (or strongly agree) that “the Government should prioritise people moving under their own power when making roading decisions”
- 14. Public transport • 92%- traffic congestion is a fairly important/very important problem for them • 42% never use public transport; a further 42% less than twice a month • 51% report that public transport is available to go shopping • 27% report that public transport is available to go to school • 28% report that public transport is available to go to work BUT … REALITY CHECKING!
- 15. 1.3 Businesses &energy Dr Sara Walton Most important factors in decisions about energy sources: Interim findings:
- 16. Interest in usingbiofuels
- 17. Comments: • Supply – “accessto supply would be the main factor” • Sourcing – “depends how biofuels are sourced and from what they are derived” • Suitability – “not yet sure of the suitability for present day piston engines”
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- 20. Comments: • Cost – “thecapital cost of the vehicle would need to be comparable” • Current technology – “the technology is fast improving, the economics and availability looking increasingly attractive” • Charge – “Where would I plug it in?” – “Electric vehicles may not have the range” • Clean – “really like the clean idea”
- 21. 2.2 Future transport– international & NZ perspectives Dr Janet Stephenson 1. What is happening globally that might shape NZ’s future transport? 2. How NZ could respond to / take advantage of these opportunities? Alaric McCarthy Dr Debbie Hopkins
- 22. International & NZDelphi studies Delphi: an iterative, multi-stage process, bringing together expert opinions on complex topics • Build on each other • Check for consistency, agreement, quantiative measures International Delphi Panel (all but 3 international) Academia (n=18), industry (n=3), government (n=4), consultancy (n=3), NGO (n=1), other (n=1). Fields of expertise included: renewable energy, transport policy, demand modelling, material technology, freight, transport economics, behaviour
- 23. Potential shocks Likelihood ofoccurring within 10 years 1 = low, 5 = high PotentialtotransformthetransportsystemawayfromBAUinthelongterm 2 3 4 51 1 2 4 5 D F H G J I K High – High: A: Political instability in oil-rich countries B: Breakthrough in cheap battery/storage technologies C: Surge in public and political concern about climate change High likelihood of occurring within 10 yrs: Low potential to transform D: Geopolitical interventions in oil-rich countries E: Failure of Evs to be adopted as readily as expected High potential to transform Low likelihood of occurring in 10 yrs: F: Global price on carbon G: Acute resource scarcity H: Significant global economic decline E Low - Low: I: Political instability in China and/or India J: Readily available oil sources found K: Breakthrough in nuclear fusion A B C
- 24. Change Trends Likelihood ofbecoming widespread within 10 years 1 = low, 5 = high PotentialtotransformthetransportsystemawayfromBAUinthelongterm 2 3 4 51 1 2 4 5 G J I K High – High: A : Increasing investment in public transport B: Uptake of travel substitution technologies C: Increasing public environmental concern D: Uptake of efficient cars E: Uptake of electric vehicles F: Uptake of active transport High likelihood of becoming widespread Low potential to transform I: Decreasing youth car ownership J: Uptake of shared personal transport K: Decreasing youth car licensing High potential to transform Low likelihood of becoming widespread: G: Uptake of autonomous vehicles H: Substantial reduction in VKT B D E A C F H
- 25. Interim results forNZ Delphi - Round 1 44/118 so far; average 15 years experience 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Government Independent researcher Non governmental… Academia Industry Other Consultancy Number of participants
- 26. Most influential trendsthat might lead to significant change in NZ’s transport system in the next 20 years 1. Technological advancements (36%) (Intelligent transport systems (ITS), vehicle safety technology, uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), improvement of battery technology, self-drive cars, travel substitution) 2. Rising fuel prices (34%) 3. Changing youth mobility (23%) (less likely to get licences leading to less private-car travel)
- 27. Most influential innovationsthat might lead to significant change in NZ’s transport system in the next 20 years 1. Smart cars (34%) (Cars communicating with other cars and transport infrastructure; driver behaviour real-time monitoring and feedback; semi-autonomous vehicles; driverless vehicles) 2. IT developments (27%) (integrated travel platforms; smart PT information systems; travel substitution; intelligent transport systems) 3. Electric vehicles (25%) (Greater use, affordability and availability; advances in EV tech; range increase; induction charging within the next 5-10 years)
- 28. Most influential stepchanges that might lead to significant change in NZ’s transport system in the next 20 years 1. Fossil fuel price/availability (52%) (Oil / gas supply constraints; oil / gas price shocks) 2. Climate change (34%) (more urgency, being taken more seriously, changing public opinion, changing policy)
- 29. Delphi Rounds 2-4 •Degrees of agreement; timeframes; impacts of transport sectors; relative influence • Developing a cognitive map of influences • Contrast with International Delphi findings What are implications for NZ transport?
- 30. 2.6 System dynamicsmodelling Dr David Rees Dealing with complexity • Concept mapping • Drivers of change • Feedback loops • Unintended consequences
- 31. Cognitive mapping withcausal loops – priority given to private vehicles
- 32. Material culture Energy practices Norms and aspirations Have Think Do AnEnergy Cultures perspective
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- 35. Changes in materialculture…
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- 38. 2.5a Transport Transitionsin NZ Dr Rebecca Ford Dr Adam Doering
- 39. 85 case studies 05 10 15 20 25 30 More efficient engines Alternative fuels Appropriate vehicle choice Driver behaviour Carpooling Car sharing Journey Planning Vehicle maintenance Public transport Active transport More efficient vehicle design Road infrastructure improvement ICT Innovations Raising awareness Community visioning No. of cases
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- 42. http://energycultures.org With many thanksto our funders...
- 43. Transport-related workstreams: Current –some results 1.1 Data mining 1.2 Household survey 1.3 Businesses & energy 2.2 Future transport – international & NZ perspectives 2.5a Transition agents in transport in NZ – scoping study 2.6 System dynamics modelling Just starting or upcoming 1.4 PEP software to support decisionmaking in transport choices 2.1 Business interest in adopting efficient/low carbon transport 2.3 Business opportunities in future transport 2.4 Law/policy reviews – electric vehicles; cycling ... so far 2.5b Driver motivations for efficient driving – instrinsic v extrinsic motivators 2.7 Youth mobility practices
Editor's Notes
- #24 Lithium-air batteries; zinc-air batteries Tesla announcement
- #34 Invite audience to suggest some of the external influences
- #35 Invite audience to suggest some of the external influences
- #38 Collaborative culture is having an influence more and more on business trends. From couchsurfing, to coworking, colunching, coshopping and of course carsharing.