1. Dr Janet Stephenson
Talk for Transport Research Group
26 May 2014

2. The Energy Cultures team
Prof. Gerry
Carrington
physics/
engineering
Dr Paul
Thorsnes
economics
Dr Janet Stephenson
sociology/
human geography
Prof. Rob
Lawson
consumer
psychology
Prof. Barry
Barton
law & policy
Dr John
Williams
marketing
Dr Rebecca
Ford
engineering
Dr Sara
Walton
management
Dr David
Rees
system
dynamics
Dr Charles
Sullivan
psychology;
statistics
Dr Michelle Scott
psychology, HCI
Dr Debbie
Hopkins
environmental
sociology
Dr Adam
Doering
social science;
transport
Alaric McCarthy
Environmental
science
Dr Ben
Wooliscroft
macro-marketing
Jane Khan,
administrator

3. Energy Cultures research programme
Energy Cultures 1: 2009-2012
• Household space heating
and water heating
• Energy efficiency
• Behaviour change
http://otago.ourarchive.ac.nz/handle/10523/3747 http://researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz/handle/10289/7563
The Legal Framework for
Energy Efficiency in Road
Transport:
A Critique of Legislation,
Regulation and Policy in NZ
Kimberley Jordan LLM

4. Energy Cultures 2: 2012-2016
Part A: Energy efficiency
MBIE RFP:
“Considering the current
pattern of energy usage in
New Zealand homes, small
businesses and transport,
where do the ‘highest impact’
opportunities lie for energy
savings and how can these be
cost-effectively leveraged?”
Part B: Future Transport
MBIE RFP:
“In transport, what is possible
with new technologies and
practices for energy efficiency
and conservation and how can
consumers be encouraged to
adopt them and encourage
markets to deliver them?”

5. Reference Panel
• MoT
• NZTA
• Treasury
• EECA
• MBIE
• Mercury Energy
• Z Energy
• Automobile Association
• Express Couriers
• Beacon Pathways
• Sustainable Cities

6. Transport-related workstreams:
Current – some results
1.1 Data mining
1.2 Household survey
1.3 Businesses & energy
2.2 Future transport – international & NZ perspectives
2.5a Transition agents in transport in NZ – scoping study
2.6 System dynamics modelling
Just starting or upcoming
1.4 PEP software to support decisionmaking in transport choices
2.1 Business interest in adopting efficient/low carbon transport
2.3 Business opportunities in future transport
2.4 Law/policy reviews – electric vehicles; cycling ... so far
2.5b Driver motivations for efficient driving – instrinsic v extrinsic motivators
2.7 Youth mobility practices

7. 1.1 Data mining
Dr John Williams Data sources
• Energy Data File
• Energy in NZ
• Energy Use survey
(businesses)
• NZ Household Travel Survey
• MVR, WoF and Drivers'
license databases
• IEA Scoreboard
• IEA Energy Statistics
Prof Gerry Carrington

9. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Roadenergy/residentialenergy(%)
Data for 2011 from IEA Energy Statistics for OECD countries (2013 edn)
Road energy use as a percent of residential energy use

10. International Energy Agency, “IEA Scoreboard 2011”, IEA/OECD, Paris (2011)
Freight transportation: mode and energy use
• Energy used for freight
transport (per tonne-km)
increased by about 40%
between 1990 and 2008
• In 2008, this was more than
60% higher than the average
for 18 IEA nations
• NZ’s use of rail and water
freight transport modes is
much lower than the average
for 18 IEA nations
Low-hanging fruit??

11. 1.2 National household survey
Dr Ben Wooliscroft Partial results 700/2500
• Demographics
• House & appliances
• Energy behaviours
• Travel
• Attitudes
• Aspirations
• 143 questions!

12. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Driver efficiency

13. Transport opinions
• 78% - there should be less (or a lot less) trips to
school by car
• 74% - there should be less (or a lot less) trips to
work by car
• 50% - there should be less (or a lot less trips) to
go shopping by car
• 51% agree (or strongly agree) that “the
Government should prioritise people moving
under their own power when making roading
decisions”

14. Public transport
• 92% - traffic congestion is a fairly important/very important
problem for them
• 42% never use public transport; a further 42% less than
twice a month
• 51% report that public transport is available to go shopping
• 27% report that public transport is available to go to school
• 28% report that public transport is available to go to work
BUT … REALITY CHECKING!

15. 1.3 Businesses & energy
Dr Sara Walton
Most important factors in
decisions about energy sources:
Interim findings:

16. Interest in using biofuels

17. Comments:
• Supply
– “access to supply would be the main factor”
• Sourcing
– “depends how biofuels are sourced and from what
they are derived”
• Suitability
– “not yet sure of the suitability for present day
piston engines”

18. Fleet efficiency actions?

19. Interest in EVs

20. Comments:
• Cost
– “the capital cost of the vehicle would need to be
comparable”
• Current technology
– “the technology is fast improving, the economics and
availability looking increasingly attractive”
• Charge
– “Where would I plug it in?”
– “Electric vehicles may not have the range”
• Clean
– “really like the clean idea”

21. 2.2 Future transport –
international & NZ perspectives
Dr Janet Stephenson
1. What is happening
globally that might shape
NZ’s future transport?
2. How NZ could respond
to / take advantage of
these opportunities?
Alaric McCarthy
Dr Debbie Hopkins

22. International & NZ Delphi studies
Delphi: an iterative, multi-stage process, bringing
together expert opinions on complex topics
• Build on each other
• Check for consistency, agreement, quantiative
measures
International Delphi Panel (all but 3 international)
Academia (n=18), industry (n=3), government (n=4),
consultancy (n=3), NGO (n=1), other (n=1).
Fields of expertise included: renewable energy, transport
policy, demand modelling, material technology, freight,
transport economics, behaviour

23. Potential shocks
Likelihood of occurring within 10 years
1 = low, 5 = high
PotentialtotransformthetransportsystemawayfromBAUinthelongterm
2
3
4 51
1
2
4
5
D
F
H
G
J
I
K
High – High:
A: Political instability in oil-rich
countries
B: Breakthrough in cheap
battery/storage technologies
C: Surge in public and political
concern about climate change
High likelihood of occurring
within 10 yrs:
Low potential to transform
D: Geopolitical interventions in
oil-rich countries
E: Failure of Evs to be adopted as
readily as expected
High potential to transform
Low likelihood of occurring in 10
yrs:
F: Global price on carbon
G: Acute resource scarcity
H: Significant global economic decline
E
Low - Low:
I: Political instability in China and/or
India
J: Readily available oil sources found
K: Breakthrough in nuclear fusion
A
B
C

24. Change Trends
Likelihood of becoming widespread within 10 years
1 = low, 5 = high
PotentialtotransformthetransportsystemawayfromBAUinthelongterm
2
3
4 51
1
2
4
5
G
J I
K
High – High:
A : Increasing investment in public transport
B: Uptake of travel substitution technologies
C: Increasing public environmental concern
D: Uptake of efficient cars
E: Uptake of electric vehicles
F: Uptake of active transport
High likelihood of becoming widespread
Low potential to transform
I: Decreasing youth car ownership
J: Uptake of shared personal transport
K: Decreasing youth car licensing
High potential to transform
Low likelihood of becoming
widespread:
G: Uptake of autonomous vehicles
H: Substantial reduction in VKT
B
D
E A
C
F
H

25. Interim results for NZ Delphi - Round 1
44/118 so far; average 15 years experience
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Government
Independent researcher
Non governmental…
Academia
Industry
Other
Consultancy
Number of participants

26. Most influential trends that might lead to
significant change in NZ’s transport system in
the next 20 years
1. Technological advancements (36%) (Intelligent
transport systems (ITS), vehicle safety technology, uptake of
electric vehicles (EVs), improvement of battery technology,
self-drive cars, travel substitution)
2. Rising fuel prices (34%)
3. Changing youth mobility (23%) (less likely to get
licences leading to less private-car travel)

27. Most influential innovations that might lead to
significant change in NZ’s transport system in
the next 20 years
1. Smart cars (34%) (Cars communicating with other cars and
transport infrastructure; driver behaviour real-time monitoring
and feedback; semi-autonomous vehicles; driverless vehicles)
2. IT developments (27%) (integrated travel platforms;
smart PT information systems; travel substitution; intelligent
transport systems)
3. Electric vehicles (25%) (Greater use, affordability and
availability; advances in EV tech; range increase; induction
charging within the next 5-10 years)

28. Most influential step changes that might lead to
significant change in NZ’s transport system in
the next 20 years
1. Fossil fuel price/availability (52%) (Oil / gas
supply constraints; oil / gas price shocks)
2. Climate change (34%) (more urgency, being taken
more seriously, changing public opinion, changing policy)

29. Delphi Rounds 2-4
• Degrees of agreement; timeframes; impacts of
transport sectors; relative influence
• Developing a cognitive map of influences
• Contrast with International Delphi findings
What are implications for NZ transport?

30. 2.6 System dynamics modelling
Dr David Rees Dealing with complexity
• Concept mapping
• Drivers of change
• Feedback loops
• Unintended consequences

31. Cognitive mapping with causal loops –
priority given to private vehicles

32. Material
culture
Energy
practices
Norms and
aspirations
Have
Think Do
An Energy Cultures perspective

33. Material
culture
PracticesNorms
Transport cultures ….
Transport
Culture

34. Material
culture
PracticesNorms
Transport
Culture
Transport cultures ….

35. Changes in material culture…

36. Changes in practices…

37. Changes in norms…
New
transport
cultures?

38. 2.5a Transport Transitions in NZ
Dr Rebecca Ford
Dr Adam Doering

39. 85 case studies
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
More efficient engines
Alternative fuels
Appropriate vehicle choice
Driver behaviour
Carpooling
Car sharing
Journey Planning
Vehicle maintenance
Public transport
Active transport
More efficient vehicle design
Road infrastructure improvement
ICT Innovations
Raising awareness
Community visioning
No. of cases

40. Changing ‘transport cultures’

41. Changing ‘transport cultures’

42. http://energycultures.org
With many thanks to our funders...

43. Transport-related workstreams:
Current – some results
1.1 Data mining
1.2 Household survey
1.3 Businesses & energy
2.2 Future transport – international & NZ perspectives
2.5a Transition agents in transport in NZ – scoping study
2.6 System dynamics modelling
Just starting or upcoming
1.4 PEP software to support decisionmaking in transport choices
2.1 Business interest in adopting efficient/low carbon transport
2.3 Business opportunities in future transport
2.4 Law/policy reviews – electric vehicles; cycling ... so far
2.5b Driver motivations for efficient driving – instrinsic v extrinsic motivators
2.7 Youth mobility practices