Transferable Skills - Your Roadmap - Part 1 and 2 - Dirk Spencer Senior Recru...
St. Bonaventure Friday Financial Forum September 26, 2014
1. Business Friday Forum
What is Financial Planning
Accumulation, Distribution and Transfer of Wealth
St. Bonaventure Business Student Friday Forum
September 26, 2014
2. Agenda
Discuss the Business of Personal Finance
What is Financial Planning
What are Some of the Products and Services
What is the Role of a Financial Planner
What opportunity is there for a college graduate in
this industry
The Money You Can Make
The Impact You Can Have on the Life of Others
3. Who is Kevin Wenke
Kevin Wenke
From Olean NY
BS From SUNY Fredonia (1993)
MBA From University of Tennessee (1999)
Started with MetLife in 2003
IAR in 2004
CFP in 2008
CLU in 2008
Decision Tree Financial in 2009
“Comfort Investing” Book 2014
4. What is the Average 25 Year Old College
Graduates Biggest Asset?
The #1 Answer Is Usually “My Car”
5. Explanation
Current Age 25
Earning average of $50,000 per year
Work until age 65
Never Get a Raise = $2,000,000
Get an average raise of 3.5% throughout career
14. WhereDo “Do It Yourself” InvestorsGet
Investment Advice?
MediaExperts
Newspapers
Television
Radio
Tipsfrom Family
and Friends
15. Quantitative Analysis of Investor
Behavior
Produced by Dalbar since 1994
In the Period of 1984-2013, The Average DIY
Investor:
Earned an Average CAGR in the Stock Market of
3.69%
The S&P 500 had a CAGR of 11.11%
Earned an Average CAGR in Fixed Income of 0.7%
The Barclay’s Bond Index had a CAGR of 7.67%
19. Common Way Financial Planners
Get Paid
Gain Clients and Manage Their Portfolio’s
Average Fee Charged is ~ 2.5% of the portfolio
1% is paid to the Financial Planner meeting with
Clients
1% is paid to the Portfolio Manager
0.5% is paid in various expenses and trading costs
20. Building a Clients Portfolio
Stocks
Large Cap
Mid-Cap
Small-Cap
International
Emerging Market
Bonds
Long-Term
Short-Term
TIPS
Corporate
Government
Municipal
High-Yield
Convertible
21. Level of Risk
Expected
Return Reposition assets for better
investment return with same risk.
Reduce risk and maintain investment return.
Grandma Gambler
Efficient Frontier
23. Professional Investment
Advisor Performance
Average, or
Benchmark
(Index)
Different managers beating their benchmark in
different years maintains the average… Before Fees!
Asset Managers that beat their Benchmark
Asset Managers that lagged their Benchmark
26. Hypothetical Account Performance
(the Index Minus 2.5% Fee)
Hypothetical Stock Market Movement
TheFeesEffect
"It is difficult to systematically beat the market. But it is not difficult to
systematically throw money down a rat hole by generating commissions
(and other costs)." -- Michael Jensen, professor, Harvard University
Performance
Costs to
Investors
27. Some Real Numbers
The S&P 500 had a CAGR of 11.11% from 1984-
2013
$100,000 $2,374,000
If a 2.5% Fee was Levied Against that Return
$100,000 $1,186,000
28. “Robo-Advisors”
Investors don’t want to “Watch Their Own
Money”
Investors Understand that Asset Managers
Typically Don’t “Beat the Market”
Investors Don’t Want to Pay High Fee’s on
Average Performance
Software Based Advisors (Wealth Front and
Future Advisor) are Charging 0.5% for their
Service Using Low Cost ETF’s and Mutual
Funds (Cumulative Fee <0.7%)
29. Some Real Numbers
The S&P 500 had a CAGR of 11.11% from 1984-
2013
$100,000 $2,374,000
If a 0.7% Fee was Levied Against that Return
$100,000 $1,958,000
30. However
According to the Dalbar Report, the average DIY
investor who earned a CAGR of 3.69% in stocks
would have only turned $100,000 into $304,000.
31. Other Considerations
“Past Performance Doesn’t Guarantee Future
Results”
Nothing Contractual ensuring a return basically says
“invest at your own risk because we aren’t standing
behind our service.”
Aggressive portfolio’s fell by around 50% from their
highs at points in 1987, 2000-2002 and 2008.
Investors changed advisors and advisors got PTSD
Bonds are Used to Reduce Volatility
30 Years of Falling Interest Rates has made
professionally managed and rebalanced portfolio’s look
like they are “beating” their averages.
32. Other Considerations
Other than Growth and Income, Stocks and
Bonds typically provide no additional
economic benefits to the investor holding them.
Ford – 100 shares for 6 months x-plan pricing
Wriggly sends shareholders a pack of gum each
year…….
Point - Investors buy Stocks and Bonds
for Growth and Income
33. Is this possible
Help an investor limit the amount of investment losses
they can experience to an absolute amount.
Helping to manage emotions and allow investor to comfortably
“buy low and sell high”
Reduce the risk to a portfolio when interest rates
increase and or
Allow an investor to have a large portion of their
wealth positioned more stable asset
Allowing them to be in a position of power and control
Without sacrificing long-term investment returns
While providing additional benefits to their
comprehensive financial plan?
34. Reduce Risk and Reduce Volatility
With Out Sacrificing Long-Term
Performance
36. Benefits of Using Call Options
Purchasing the right to purchase an asset in the
future at a predetermined price.
Positive Leverage – Unlimited Upside Potential
Call Options don’t force investor to risk 100% of their
capital
Transfer the downside risk to the seller of the
call option
Cost effective for investors to obtain - $0.65 per
contract and $5 per trade
Contract is equal to 100 shares of stock
37. TheUseof Call OptionsCan Help
Prevent ThisBehavior
Depression
Euphoria
Optimism
Excitement Anxiety
Fear Relief
Optimism
38. Potential Negative of Using Call
Options
Must Compensate Seller For Their Risk
Premium is based on future “strike price”, contract
term, current risk free interest rate and volatility of
underlying asset.
This Premium Can Come From The Earnings of
Remaining Money Not At Risk In Option
Ideally remaining money should be safe,
have a stable value, be liquid while providing a
decent rate of return
39. Constructing a Portfolio
Fixed Income Securities
Low Variance and Standard Deviation
Cash
Bonds
TIPS
MLPs
BDCs
MBSs
42. What is Cash Value Life
Insurance
Life Insurance Companies Invest Premiums
Into a Diversified Portfolio of Fixed Income
Securities.
The Manage and Retain Interest Rate Risk for
Policy Owners.
43. Assets Life Insurance Companies
Hold
They own 17% of US Corporate Debt
Control $6.5 Trillion Dollars of Assets
This Amount Would Increase the More
Premium Collect
Compete with Investment Banks for Corporate Debt
Underwriting.
44. What is Whole Life Insurance
From A Mutual Insurance Company
Mutual Life Insurance Companies Are Owned
By Its Policy Owners
Allows Policy Owner to Receive Dividends
When Surplus (Earnings) Are Above
Guaranteed Minimum Rates.
45. Contracted Minimal Return
Plus Equity Ownership
Owners of Whole Life Receive Dividends Which Are
Derived From:
The Earnings of the Life Insurance Companies Insurance
Business
The Earnings of the Fixed Income Portfolio
The Earnings from their other insurance business
Annuities
Disability
Long-Term Care
Term and Universal Life Insurance
The Earnings From Other Interests the Insurance Company
Controls
Brokerage, Mutual Fund and Asset Management Businesses
46. Criticism of Cash Value Life
Insurance
Expenses are Front-Loaded – Takes Years to
“Break-Even”
Requires a long term commitment.
47. They “Never
Perform” As
Illustrated!
30 Year Dividend Interest Rate History 1983 - 2012
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Guardian Northwestern MassMutual* New York Life
30 Year Average Return: Guardian 8.98% Northwestern 8.69% MassMutual* 9.10% New York Life 8.67%
CAGR of the S&P 500 1983-2012
10.87% (Growth and Dividend Reinvestment)
Life Insurance Dividend Rate Does Not Reflect Cost of Insurance
48. Return Comparison
Risk vs. Return
SP 500 (1984-2013)
CAGR of 11.1% (when
dividends are reinvested)
Assumes No Fee’s
Best Year
38.0% (1995)
Worst Year
-37.2% (2008)
Standard Deviation
17.1%
Call Options and Whole
Life Insurance
CAGR of 11.68%
Considers Average
2.5% deducted for
COI
Best Year
Worst Year
Standard Deviation*
18.6
Beta = 1.0
51. In financial planning the goal is to integrate and coordinate all
areas of your finances to achieve efficiency and have a greater
probability of reaching your target. Integrating the pieces of your
finances also means working with your other advisors to ensure
the best possible plan for you!
Lawyer Accountant
Mortgage Broker Certified Financial Planner Banker
Insurance Agent Investment Advisor
52. What Is Earning Potential Of
Commission Based Insurance?
Life Insurance
30-100% of FY Premiums
2-10% on premiums paid after 1st
year.
Fixed Annuities
3-5% of Contribution
Disability Insurance
50-100% FY Premium
10-20% On Premium After 1st
Year
Long-Term Care
50-100% FY Premium
10-20% On Premium After 1st
Year
53. Potential Earnings?
Show 2 New People a Week how to Reallocate
$500 per month into life insurance with this
strategy
Could come from their Earnings or Assets Already
Invested
$600,000 Annual Premium at 50% Commission
54.
55. Question and Answers
More Information at my Website:
Http://www.DecisionTreeFinancial.com
Http://www.KevinWenke.HubPages.com
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SlideShare
Because in reality nobody really can predict markets. People are bombarded with information on how to invest and most of that information is designed to create confusion which will separate them from their money and keep you addicted to the source of the information.
People are forced to weed through bad and partial information that financial entertainment TV shows and other media put out.
The truth is that there is very little any investor can do to predict let alone influence the return that any security will provide over time. The only thing that can be done when considering a passive investment vehicle like a stock or bond is to position money in these vehicles so that that money works and receives the maximum return for the least amount of risk.
Trading…forget it. That is just pure gambling and 95% of people lose money trying this.
I want to show you this graph and a simple concept that needs to be understood when investing. On the Horizontal axis is amount of risk you are taking when you invest. On the Vertical axis is the expected return you should expect when you take that risk.
If we draw a line, you would expect it to look like this….
The more risk you take the more return you should expect to receive.
Most investors find themselves somewhere here below this line. That means that they are taking more risk than they need to in order to achieve an expected return.
They could do one of two thing, they could continue to take the same amount of risk and increase their potential return by adjusting their investments or they could adjust the amount of risk down they are taking to achieve a similar amount of return.
The key is there is a magic place on this line that all investors want to be on. This line in finance has a great name. It is “The efficient frontier” and states that when you should expect a return correlated with the amount of risk you take.
Once you are on this line, there is little more that you can do to improve your investment results.
There are investment advisors who can position their clients so that their investment results will fall above this line consistently. They claim to be the “alpha” advisors. They get better returns than the amount of risk that they take.
Let me give another example if I may:
If you flip a coin 3 times it may come up heads 3 time, it may come up tails 3 times. If you judge your performance based on those 3 flips, you will think that you will have a head or tails EVERYTIME!
However, if you flip the penny 100 times or 1000 times, you will end up having your average being closer to 50/50.
This is the concept of regression to the mean.
Now, would you pay a person 2% of your money to “guess” how many times a coin flip will come up heads or how many times the flip will come up tails?
Yet, when we hire someone to manage our money in stocks and bonds, we are similarly hiring them to predict the outcome of the coin flip in investing which is “which to buy and which to sell’ which effectively is as outrageous as paying someone who is trying to turn lead into gold.
Just like lead is what it is and gold is what it is, the market too is what it is and there is the average and it is an effort in futility to try and beat it.
Another thing to look at is this average.
Lets look at another graph,
This horizontal line represents the average return.
Average means that 50% beat the average and 50% fall below the average.
This average is also the index that the advisors are being measured against.
Did you know that 80% of investment advisors don’t beat their averages? Here is my opinion why
Nobody can constantly pick stocks. For every buyer of a stock or bond there is a seller, each has the same information but one might see the security as a time to sell and another as a time to buy. They can’t both can’t be right if their goal is to make money. One is right and the other is wrong.
All the running around trying to figure out what to buy and what to sell takes time and the investment industry people want to make a living so they charge a fee to your account.
The longer I am in this business the more I believe that the people who claim to have the skill to determine which securities to buy and sell are nothing more than modern day alchemists. If you don’t know what an alchemist is, well, they were the learned people that were around in the middle ages who studied the “science” of turning lead into gold.
Taking the lead out of a pencil and mystically turning that lead into gold sounds absurd to most people, but I see the same absurdity in trying to determine the future value of an investment when you have zero control over what it is going to do.
So why do 80% of investment advisors fail? Because when average is what you are inevitably going to do but when you generate costs and fee’s to get there, you are going to fall below the average!
The information I am going to provide you in this video will not only save you potentially 100’s of thousands of dollars over your lifetime but it will also give you the maximum return possible if you choose to invest in the stock market.
How?
Maybe make a slide that takes that concept of a project manager building a building with all the workers involved in constuction (the castle) Show the savings from the investments to show how they are still ahead and are going to get value.