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Business Friday Forum
What is Financial Planning
Accumulation, Distribution and Transfer of Wealth
St. Bonaventure Business Student Friday Forum
September 26, 2014
Agenda
 Discuss the Business of Personal Finance
 What is Financial Planning
 What are Some of the Products and Services
 What is the Role of a Financial Planner
 What opportunity is there for a college graduate in
this industry
 The Money You Can Make
 The Impact You Can Have on the Life of Others
Who is Kevin Wenke
 Kevin Wenke
 From Olean NY
 BS From SUNY Fredonia (1993)
 MBA From University of Tennessee (1999)
 Started with MetLife in 2003
 IAR in 2004
 CFP in 2008
 CLU in 2008
 Decision Tree Financial in 2009
 “Comfort Investing” Book 2014
What is the Average 25 Year Old College
Graduates Biggest Asset?
The #1 Answer Is Usually “My Car”
Explanation
 Current Age 25
 Earning average of $50,000 per year
 Work until age 65
 Never Get a Raise = $2,000,000
 Get an average raise of 3.5% throughout career
The Accumulation, Distribution and Transfer
of Wealth
Cash Flow Quadrant
 Developed By Robert Kiyosaki
 “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” Author
WhereDo “Do It Yourself” InvestorsGet
Investment Advice?
MediaExperts
Newspapers
Television
Radio
Tipsfrom Family
and Friends
Quantitative Analysis of Investor
Behavior
 Produced by Dalbar since 1994
 In the Period of 1984-2013, The Average DIY
Investor:
 Earned an Average CAGR in the Stock Market of
3.69%
 The S&P 500 had a CAGR of 11.11%
 Earned an Average CAGR in Fixed Income of 0.7%
 The Barclay’s Bond Index had a CAGR of 7.67%
investment
Cycleof emotions
Depression
Euphoria
Optimism
Excitement Anxiety
Fear Relief
Optimism
Individual DIY Investors
Have A Great System of:
Where There is a Problem
Common Way Financial Planners
Get Paid
 Gain Clients and Manage Their Portfolio’s
 Average Fee Charged is ~ 2.5% of the portfolio
 1% is paid to the Financial Planner meeting with
Clients
 1% is paid to the Portfolio Manager
 0.5% is paid in various expenses and trading costs
Building a Clients Portfolio
 Stocks
 Large Cap
 Mid-Cap
 Small-Cap
 International
 Emerging Market
 Bonds
 Long-Term
 Short-Term
 TIPS
 Corporate
 Government
 Municipal
 High-Yield
 Convertible
Level of Risk
Expected
Return Reposition assets for better
investment return with same risk.
Reduce risk and maintain investment return.
Grandma Gambler
Efficient Frontier
100%
Regression to theMean
50% 50%
Professional Investment
Advisor Performance
Average, or
Benchmark
(Index)
Different managers beating their benchmark in
different years maintains the average… Before Fees!
Asset Managers that beat their Benchmark
Asset Managers that lagged their Benchmark
Average, or
Benchmark
(Index)
Professional Investment
Advisor Performance
Different managers beating their benchmark in
different years maintains the average… Before Fees!
Benchmark
Fund Manager Performance
Different managers beating their benchmark in
different years maintains the average… Before Fees!
Account
Performance
Hypothetical Account Performance
(the Index Minus 2.5% Fee)
Hypothetical Stock Market Movement
TheFeesEffect
"It is difficult to systematically beat the market. But it is not difficult to
systematically throw money down a rat hole by generating commissions
(and other costs)." -- Michael Jensen, professor, Harvard University
Performance
Costs to
Investors
Some Real Numbers
 The S&P 500 had a CAGR of 11.11% from 1984-
2013
 $100,000  $2,374,000
 If a 2.5% Fee was Levied Against that Return
 $100,000  $1,186,000
“Robo-Advisors”
 Investors don’t want to “Watch Their Own
Money”
 Investors Understand that Asset Managers
Typically Don’t “Beat the Market”
 Investors Don’t Want to Pay High Fee’s on
Average Performance
 Software Based Advisors (Wealth Front and
Future Advisor) are Charging 0.5% for their
Service Using Low Cost ETF’s and Mutual
Funds (Cumulative Fee <0.7%)
Some Real Numbers
 The S&P 500 had a CAGR of 11.11% from 1984-
2013
 $100,000  $2,374,000
 If a 0.7% Fee was Levied Against that Return
 $100,000  $1,958,000
However
According to the Dalbar Report, the average DIY
investor who earned a CAGR of 3.69% in stocks
would have only turned $100,000 into $304,000.
Other Considerations
 “Past Performance Doesn’t Guarantee Future
Results”
 Nothing Contractual ensuring a return basically says
“invest at your own risk because we aren’t standing
behind our service.”
 Aggressive portfolio’s fell by around 50% from their
highs at points in 1987, 2000-2002 and 2008.
 Investors changed advisors and advisors got PTSD
 Bonds are Used to Reduce Volatility
 30 Years of Falling Interest Rates has made
professionally managed and rebalanced portfolio’s look
like they are “beating” their averages.
Other Considerations
 Other than Growth and Income, Stocks and
Bonds typically provide no additional
economic benefits to the investor holding them.
 Ford – 100 shares for 6 months x-plan pricing
 Wriggly sends shareholders a pack of gum each
year…….
Point - Investors buy Stocks and Bonds
for Growth and Income
Is this possible
 Help an investor limit the amount of investment losses
they can experience to an absolute amount.
 Helping to manage emotions and allow investor to comfortably
“buy low and sell high”
 Reduce the risk to a portfolio when interest rates
increase and or
 Allow an investor to have a large portion of their
wealth positioned more stable asset
 Allowing them to be in a position of power and control
 Without sacrificing long-term investment returns
 While providing additional benefits to their
comprehensive financial plan?
Reduce Risk and Reduce Volatility
With Out Sacrificing Long-Term
Performance
Investing In Stocks vs. Options
Benefits of Using Call Options
 Purchasing the right to purchase an asset in the
future at a predetermined price.
 Positive Leverage – Unlimited Upside Potential
 Call Options don’t force investor to risk 100% of their
capital
 Transfer the downside risk to the seller of the
call option
 Cost effective for investors to obtain - $0.65 per
contract and $5 per trade
 Contract is equal to 100 shares of stock
TheUseof Call OptionsCan Help
Prevent ThisBehavior
Depression
Euphoria
Optimism
Excitement Anxiety
Fear Relief
Optimism
Potential Negative of Using Call
Options
 Must Compensate Seller For Their Risk
 Premium is based on future “strike price”, contract
term, current risk free interest rate and volatility of
underlying asset.
This Premium Can Come From The Earnings of
Remaining Money Not At Risk In Option
 Ideally remaining money should be safe,
have a stable value, be liquid while providing a
decent rate of return
Constructing a Portfolio
 Fixed Income Securities
 Low Variance and Standard Deviation
 Cash
 Bonds
 TIPS
 MLPs
 BDCs
 MBSs
These Securities Are Still
Interest Rate Sensitive
The Contract That Guarantees
a Minimum Rate or Return
What is Cash Value Life
Insurance
 Life Insurance Companies Invest Premiums
Into a Diversified Portfolio of Fixed Income
Securities.
 The Manage and Retain Interest Rate Risk for
Policy Owners.
Assets Life Insurance Companies
Hold
 They own 17% of US Corporate Debt
 Control $6.5 Trillion Dollars of Assets
 This Amount Would Increase the More
Premium Collect
 Compete with Investment Banks for Corporate Debt
Underwriting.
What is Whole Life Insurance
From A Mutual Insurance Company
 Mutual Life Insurance Companies Are Owned
By Its Policy Owners
 Allows Policy Owner to Receive Dividends
When Surplus (Earnings) Are Above
Guaranteed Minimum Rates.
Contracted Minimal Return
Plus Equity Ownership
 Owners of Whole Life Receive Dividends Which Are
Derived From:
 The Earnings of the Life Insurance Companies Insurance
Business
 The Earnings of the Fixed Income Portfolio
 The Earnings from their other insurance business
 Annuities
 Disability
 Long-Term Care
 Term and Universal Life Insurance
 The Earnings From Other Interests the Insurance Company
Controls
 Brokerage, Mutual Fund and Asset Management Businesses
Criticism of Cash Value Life
Insurance
 Expenses are Front-Loaded – Takes Years to
“Break-Even”
 Requires a long term commitment.
They “Never
Perform” As
Illustrated!
30 Year Dividend Interest Rate History 1983 - 2012
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Guardian Northwestern MassMutual* New York Life
30 Year Average Return: Guardian 8.98% Northwestern 8.69% MassMutual* 9.10% New York Life 8.67%
CAGR of the S&P 500 1983-2012
10.87% (Growth and Dividend Reinvestment)
Life Insurance Dividend Rate Does Not Reflect Cost of Insurance
Return Comparison
Risk vs. Return
 SP 500 (1984-2013)
 CAGR of 11.1% (when
dividends are reinvested)
 Assumes No Fee’s
 Best Year
 38.0% (1995)
 Worst Year
 -37.2% (2008)
 Standard Deviation
 17.1%
 Call Options and Whole
Life Insurance
 CAGR of 11.68%
 Considers Average
2.5% deducted for
COI
 Best Year
 Worst Year
 Standard Deviation*
 18.6
 Beta = 1.0
Call Options and Cash Value Life
Insurance
In financial planning the goal is to integrate and coordinate all
areas of your finances to achieve efficiency and have a greater
probability of reaching your target. Integrating the pieces of your
finances also means working with your other advisors to ensure
the best possible plan for you!
Lawyer Accountant
Mortgage Broker Certified Financial Planner Banker
Insurance Agent Investment Advisor
What Is Earning Potential Of
Commission Based Insurance?
 Life Insurance
 30-100% of FY Premiums
 2-10% on premiums paid after 1st
year.
 Fixed Annuities
 3-5% of Contribution
 Disability Insurance
 50-100% FY Premium
 10-20% On Premium After 1st
Year
 Long-Term Care
 50-100% FY Premium
 10-20% On Premium After 1st
Year
Potential Earnings?
 Show 2 New People a Week how to Reallocate
$500 per month into life insurance with this
strategy
 Could come from their Earnings or Assets Already
Invested
 $600,000 Annual Premium at 50% Commission
Question and Answers
 More Information at my Website:
 Http://www.DecisionTreeFinancial.com
 Http://www.KevinWenke.HubPages.com
 Please Share and Follow Me On:
 FaceBook
 Twitter
 Google+
 YouTube
 Pinterest
 SlideShare
Thank You

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St. Bonaventure Friday Financial Forum September 26, 2014

  • 1. Business Friday Forum What is Financial Planning Accumulation, Distribution and Transfer of Wealth St. Bonaventure Business Student Friday Forum September 26, 2014
  • 2. Agenda  Discuss the Business of Personal Finance  What is Financial Planning  What are Some of the Products and Services  What is the Role of a Financial Planner  What opportunity is there for a college graduate in this industry  The Money You Can Make  The Impact You Can Have on the Life of Others
  • 3. Who is Kevin Wenke  Kevin Wenke  From Olean NY  BS From SUNY Fredonia (1993)  MBA From University of Tennessee (1999)  Started with MetLife in 2003  IAR in 2004  CFP in 2008  CLU in 2008  Decision Tree Financial in 2009  “Comfort Investing” Book 2014
  • 4. What is the Average 25 Year Old College Graduates Biggest Asset? The #1 Answer Is Usually “My Car”
  • 5. Explanation  Current Age 25  Earning average of $50,000 per year  Work until age 65  Never Get a Raise = $2,000,000  Get an average raise of 3.5% throughout career
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. The Accumulation, Distribution and Transfer of Wealth
  • 10.
  • 11. Cash Flow Quadrant  Developed By Robert Kiyosaki  “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” Author
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. WhereDo “Do It Yourself” InvestorsGet Investment Advice? MediaExperts Newspapers Television Radio Tipsfrom Family and Friends
  • 15. Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior  Produced by Dalbar since 1994  In the Period of 1984-2013, The Average DIY Investor:  Earned an Average CAGR in the Stock Market of 3.69%  The S&P 500 had a CAGR of 11.11%  Earned an Average CAGR in Fixed Income of 0.7%  The Barclay’s Bond Index had a CAGR of 7.67%
  • 17. Individual DIY Investors Have A Great System of:
  • 18. Where There is a Problem
  • 19. Common Way Financial Planners Get Paid  Gain Clients and Manage Their Portfolio’s  Average Fee Charged is ~ 2.5% of the portfolio  1% is paid to the Financial Planner meeting with Clients  1% is paid to the Portfolio Manager  0.5% is paid in various expenses and trading costs
  • 20. Building a Clients Portfolio  Stocks  Large Cap  Mid-Cap  Small-Cap  International  Emerging Market  Bonds  Long-Term  Short-Term  TIPS  Corporate  Government  Municipal  High-Yield  Convertible
  • 21. Level of Risk Expected Return Reposition assets for better investment return with same risk. Reduce risk and maintain investment return. Grandma Gambler Efficient Frontier
  • 23. Professional Investment Advisor Performance Average, or Benchmark (Index) Different managers beating their benchmark in different years maintains the average… Before Fees! Asset Managers that beat their Benchmark Asset Managers that lagged their Benchmark
  • 24. Average, or Benchmark (Index) Professional Investment Advisor Performance Different managers beating their benchmark in different years maintains the average… Before Fees!
  • 25. Benchmark Fund Manager Performance Different managers beating their benchmark in different years maintains the average… Before Fees! Account Performance
  • 26. Hypothetical Account Performance (the Index Minus 2.5% Fee) Hypothetical Stock Market Movement TheFeesEffect "It is difficult to systematically beat the market. But it is not difficult to systematically throw money down a rat hole by generating commissions (and other costs)." -- Michael Jensen, professor, Harvard University Performance Costs to Investors
  • 27. Some Real Numbers  The S&P 500 had a CAGR of 11.11% from 1984- 2013  $100,000  $2,374,000  If a 2.5% Fee was Levied Against that Return  $100,000  $1,186,000
  • 28. “Robo-Advisors”  Investors don’t want to “Watch Their Own Money”  Investors Understand that Asset Managers Typically Don’t “Beat the Market”  Investors Don’t Want to Pay High Fee’s on Average Performance  Software Based Advisors (Wealth Front and Future Advisor) are Charging 0.5% for their Service Using Low Cost ETF’s and Mutual Funds (Cumulative Fee <0.7%)
  • 29. Some Real Numbers  The S&P 500 had a CAGR of 11.11% from 1984- 2013  $100,000  $2,374,000  If a 0.7% Fee was Levied Against that Return  $100,000  $1,958,000
  • 30. However According to the Dalbar Report, the average DIY investor who earned a CAGR of 3.69% in stocks would have only turned $100,000 into $304,000.
  • 31. Other Considerations  “Past Performance Doesn’t Guarantee Future Results”  Nothing Contractual ensuring a return basically says “invest at your own risk because we aren’t standing behind our service.”  Aggressive portfolio’s fell by around 50% from their highs at points in 1987, 2000-2002 and 2008.  Investors changed advisors and advisors got PTSD  Bonds are Used to Reduce Volatility  30 Years of Falling Interest Rates has made professionally managed and rebalanced portfolio’s look like they are “beating” their averages.
  • 32. Other Considerations  Other than Growth and Income, Stocks and Bonds typically provide no additional economic benefits to the investor holding them.  Ford – 100 shares for 6 months x-plan pricing  Wriggly sends shareholders a pack of gum each year……. Point - Investors buy Stocks and Bonds for Growth and Income
  • 33. Is this possible  Help an investor limit the amount of investment losses they can experience to an absolute amount.  Helping to manage emotions and allow investor to comfortably “buy low and sell high”  Reduce the risk to a portfolio when interest rates increase and or  Allow an investor to have a large portion of their wealth positioned more stable asset  Allowing them to be in a position of power and control  Without sacrificing long-term investment returns  While providing additional benefits to their comprehensive financial plan?
  • 34. Reduce Risk and Reduce Volatility With Out Sacrificing Long-Term Performance
  • 35. Investing In Stocks vs. Options
  • 36. Benefits of Using Call Options  Purchasing the right to purchase an asset in the future at a predetermined price.  Positive Leverage – Unlimited Upside Potential  Call Options don’t force investor to risk 100% of their capital  Transfer the downside risk to the seller of the call option  Cost effective for investors to obtain - $0.65 per contract and $5 per trade  Contract is equal to 100 shares of stock
  • 37. TheUseof Call OptionsCan Help Prevent ThisBehavior Depression Euphoria Optimism Excitement Anxiety Fear Relief Optimism
  • 38. Potential Negative of Using Call Options  Must Compensate Seller For Their Risk  Premium is based on future “strike price”, contract term, current risk free interest rate and volatility of underlying asset. This Premium Can Come From The Earnings of Remaining Money Not At Risk In Option  Ideally remaining money should be safe, have a stable value, be liquid while providing a decent rate of return
  • 39. Constructing a Portfolio  Fixed Income Securities  Low Variance and Standard Deviation  Cash  Bonds  TIPS  MLPs  BDCs  MBSs
  • 40. These Securities Are Still Interest Rate Sensitive
  • 41. The Contract That Guarantees a Minimum Rate or Return
  • 42. What is Cash Value Life Insurance  Life Insurance Companies Invest Premiums Into a Diversified Portfolio of Fixed Income Securities.  The Manage and Retain Interest Rate Risk for Policy Owners.
  • 43. Assets Life Insurance Companies Hold  They own 17% of US Corporate Debt  Control $6.5 Trillion Dollars of Assets  This Amount Would Increase the More Premium Collect  Compete with Investment Banks for Corporate Debt Underwriting.
  • 44. What is Whole Life Insurance From A Mutual Insurance Company  Mutual Life Insurance Companies Are Owned By Its Policy Owners  Allows Policy Owner to Receive Dividends When Surplus (Earnings) Are Above Guaranteed Minimum Rates.
  • 45. Contracted Minimal Return Plus Equity Ownership  Owners of Whole Life Receive Dividends Which Are Derived From:  The Earnings of the Life Insurance Companies Insurance Business  The Earnings of the Fixed Income Portfolio  The Earnings from their other insurance business  Annuities  Disability  Long-Term Care  Term and Universal Life Insurance  The Earnings From Other Interests the Insurance Company Controls  Brokerage, Mutual Fund and Asset Management Businesses
  • 46. Criticism of Cash Value Life Insurance  Expenses are Front-Loaded – Takes Years to “Break-Even”  Requires a long term commitment.
  • 47. They “Never Perform” As Illustrated! 30 Year Dividend Interest Rate History 1983 - 2012 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Guardian Northwestern MassMutual* New York Life 30 Year Average Return: Guardian 8.98% Northwestern 8.69% MassMutual* 9.10% New York Life 8.67% CAGR of the S&P 500 1983-2012 10.87% (Growth and Dividend Reinvestment) Life Insurance Dividend Rate Does Not Reflect Cost of Insurance
  • 48. Return Comparison Risk vs. Return  SP 500 (1984-2013)  CAGR of 11.1% (when dividends are reinvested)  Assumes No Fee’s  Best Year  38.0% (1995)  Worst Year  -37.2% (2008)  Standard Deviation  17.1%  Call Options and Whole Life Insurance  CAGR of 11.68%  Considers Average 2.5% deducted for COI  Best Year  Worst Year  Standard Deviation*  18.6  Beta = 1.0
  • 49. Call Options and Cash Value Life Insurance
  • 50.
  • 51. In financial planning the goal is to integrate and coordinate all areas of your finances to achieve efficiency and have a greater probability of reaching your target. Integrating the pieces of your finances also means working with your other advisors to ensure the best possible plan for you! Lawyer Accountant Mortgage Broker Certified Financial Planner Banker Insurance Agent Investment Advisor
  • 52. What Is Earning Potential Of Commission Based Insurance?  Life Insurance  30-100% of FY Premiums  2-10% on premiums paid after 1st year.  Fixed Annuities  3-5% of Contribution  Disability Insurance  50-100% FY Premium  10-20% On Premium After 1st Year  Long-Term Care  50-100% FY Premium  10-20% On Premium After 1st Year
  • 53. Potential Earnings?  Show 2 New People a Week how to Reallocate $500 per month into life insurance with this strategy  Could come from their Earnings or Assets Already Invested  $600,000 Annual Premium at 50% Commission
  • 54.
  • 55. Question and Answers  More Information at my Website:  Http://www.DecisionTreeFinancial.com  Http://www.KevinWenke.HubPages.com  Please Share and Follow Me On:  FaceBook  Twitter  Google+  YouTube  Pinterest  SlideShare

Editor's Notes

  1. Because in reality nobody really can predict markets. People are bombarded with information on how to invest and most of that information is designed to create confusion which will separate them from their money and keep you addicted to the source of the information.   People are forced to weed through bad and partial information that financial entertainment TV shows and other media put out.   The truth is that there is very little any investor can do to predict let alone influence the return that any security will provide over time. The only thing that can be done when considering a passive investment vehicle like a stock or bond is to position money in these vehicles so that that money works and receives the maximum return for the least amount of risk.   Trading…forget it. That is just pure gambling and 95% of people lose money trying this.
  2. I want to show you this graph and a simple concept that needs to be understood when investing. On the Horizontal axis is amount of risk you are taking when you invest. On the Vertical axis is the expected return you should expect when you take that risk.   If we draw a line, you would expect it to look like this….   The more risk you take the more return you should expect to receive.   Most investors find themselves somewhere here below this line. That means that they are taking more risk than they need to in order to achieve an expected return.   They could do one of two thing, they could continue to take the same amount of risk and increase their potential return by adjusting their investments or they could adjust the amount of risk down they are taking to achieve a similar amount of return.   The key is there is a magic place on this line that all investors want to be on. This line in finance has a great name. It is “The efficient frontier” and states that when you should expect a return correlated with the amount of risk you take.   Once you are on this line, there is little more that you can do to improve your investment results.   There are investment advisors who can position their clients so that their investment results will fall above this line consistently. They claim to be the “alpha” advisors. They get better returns than the amount of risk that they take.
  3. Let me give another example if I may: If you flip a coin 3 times it may come up heads 3 time, it may come up tails 3 times. If you judge your performance based on those 3 flips, you will think that you will have a head or tails EVERYTIME!   However, if you flip the penny 100 times or 1000 times, you will end up having your average being closer to 50/50.   This is the concept of regression to the mean.   Now, would you pay a person 2% of your money to “guess” how many times a coin flip will come up heads or how many times the flip will come up tails?   Yet, when we hire someone to manage our money in stocks and bonds, we are similarly hiring them to predict the outcome of the coin flip in investing which is “which to buy and which to sell’ which effectively is as outrageous as paying someone who is trying to turn lead into gold.   Just like lead is what it is and gold is what it is, the market too is what it is and there is the average and it is an effort in futility to try and beat it.
  4. Another thing to look at is this average.   Lets look at another graph,   This horizontal line represents the average return.   Average means that 50% beat the average and 50% fall below the average.   This average is also the index that the advisors are being measured against.   Did you know that 80% of investment advisors don’t beat their averages? Here is my opinion why   Nobody can constantly pick stocks. For every buyer of a stock or bond there is a seller, each has the same information but one might see the security as a time to sell and another as a time to buy. They can’t both can’t be right if their goal is to make money. One is right and the other is wrong.   All the running around trying to figure out what to buy and what to sell takes time and the investment industry people want to make a living so they charge a fee to your account.   The longer I am in this business the more I believe that the people who claim to have the skill to determine which securities to buy and sell are nothing more than modern day alchemists. If you don’t know what an alchemist is, well, they were the learned people that were around in the middle ages who studied the “science” of turning lead into gold.   Taking the lead out of a pencil and mystically turning that lead into gold sounds absurd to most people, but I see the same absurdity in trying to determine the future value of an investment when you have zero control over what it is going to do.
  5. So why do 80% of investment advisors fail? Because when average is what you are inevitably going to do but when you generate costs and fee’s to get there, you are going to fall below the average! The information I am going to provide you in this video will not only save you potentially 100’s of thousands of dollars over your lifetime but it will also give you the maximum return possible if you choose to invest in the stock market.   How?
  6. Maybe make a slide that takes that concept of a project manager building a building with all the workers involved in constuction (the castle) Show the savings from the investments to show how they are still ahead and are going to get value.