Presented by Iain A Wright, Polly Ericksen, Andrew Mude and Klaus Butterbach-Bahl at the Workshop on Unsettled Futures for Subsistence Pastoralism: Adapting Livestock Systems in the Face of Changing Climate and Land Use, 67th Annual Meeting of the Society for Range Management, USA, 8-13 February 2014

1. Pastoralism: From vulnerability to resilience
Iain A Wright, Polly Ericksen, Andrew Mude and
Klaus Butterbach-Bahl
Unsettled Futures for Subsistence Pastoralism: Adapting Livestock Systems in the Face of Changing Climate and
Land Use
67th Annual Meeting of the Society for Range Management, USA, 8-13 February 2014

2. Importance of pastoralism
• Grazing land covers 32M km2 - ¼ of land surface
• Supports over 64M poor people1
• 30M of them in Sub-Saharan Africa
1Robinson et al., 2011
< $2/day

3. Challenges in pastoral systems
• Aridity
• High Temperatures
• Low soil fertility
• Sharp seasonality
• Inter-annual variability
• Droughts
• Climate change
• Animal disease
• Markets
• Conflict/political
disturbance

4. Variability in rainfall (Ethiopia)
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
year
percentage
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variation around the mean
GDP growth
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
year
percentage
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variation around the mean
GDP growth

5. Drought-related livestock mortality is the
greatest source of vulnerability
Source: IBLI Poject Baseline 2009 (Northern Kenya)

6. Adaptation strategies of agro-pastoral
communities
to climate change
0 .2 .4 .6
normalized rankings of coping mechanisms
Remove children from school
Living with relatives
Reduction in consumption
Sale of assets
Use savings
Help from institutions
Seek temporary casual labour
Food aid
Help from relatives/friends
Sale of cattle or camel
Sale of goats or sheep
Coping strategies of agro-pastoral community in response to drought –
Kajiado district, Kenya; ILRI 2008)

7. Tsetse Distribution and Climate Change
Model predictions for changes in tsetse
distribution to 2030 from current distributions for
morsitans (left), fusca (centre) and palpalis (right)
tsetse groups as a result of changes in length of
growing period
No change: Absent
Presence to Absence
Absence to Presence
No change: Present
McDermott et al. (2001), revised 2005

8. Kazakhstan – Livestock numbers
Beknke 2003

9. Pastoralism
• Marginalized;
• Economically
• Socially
• Politically
• Perceived as
• Backward
• Uneconomic
• Environmentally degrading

10. Revenue per hectare from livestock, cotton
and sugar cane – Awash Valley, Ethiopia
Behnke and Kerven, 2013

11. Future options
Poor resource access
Commercialization and export trade Traditional mobile pastoralism
Diversification and added value Exits and alternative livelihoods
Goodmarketaccess
Poormarketaccess
Good resource access

12. Commercialization

13. Livestock exports from Ethiopia
Year Live animals Value (US $
‘000)
Meat (t) Value (US $
‘000)
2005-06 165,000 27,252 7,717 15,598
2006-07 243,000 36,507 7,917 18,448
2007-08 298,000 40,865 5,875 15,471
2008-09 150,000 77,350 6,400 24,480
2009-10 334,000 91,000 10,000 34,000
2010-11 472,000 148,000 16,877 63,200

14. Commercialization
• Defend livestock corridors to maintain mobility
• Build infrastructure – roads, markets, quarantine
stations
• Develop identification and traceability systems
• Improve animal health care and veterinary services

15. Diversification – payment for
environmental services

16. Payment for wildlife services –
Kenya
Osano, 2013

17. Carbon sequestration by rangelands -
Qinghai Province, China
• Carbon financing to promote:
• grassland rehabilitation by controlling land degradation and
preserving water cycle and biodiversity
• emission removal through soil carbon sequestration
• emission reduction (per unit of product) through greater efficiency
and productivity
• food security through improved livestock management practices
• Carbon finance from a voluntary scheme used to
compensate costs and foregone income during a transition
period
• Expected to generate a reduction of approximately
500,000 t of CO2eq, over 10 years.
• Aims to address some of the key barriers to smallholder
access to carbon finance.

18. Index-based livestock insurance (IBLI)

19. The costs of uninsured risk in Kenya
• Systemic Drought exposure: 28 Droughts last
100 years, 4 in last 10 years
• Frequency and Intensity increasing
• 2008 -2011: 4 consecutive years drought:
– Total value damages and losses US$ 12.1
billion
– Agriculture US$ 1.51 billion (12.5%)
– Livestock US$ 8.74 billion (72.2%)
– 9% national livestock herd died – mostly
cattle
• Food Insecurity due to drought:
– 2009 = 3.8 million people
– 2011 = 3.75 million people affected,
• 1.8 million in marginal crop areas
• 1.9 million people in marginal pastoral
areas
12.5%
72.2%
0.4%
0.7%
0.5%
0.7%
0.4%
3.3%
9.1%
0.1%
Agriculture
Livestock
Fisheries
Agro Industry
Health
Nutrition
Education
Energy
Water and sanitation
Environment, tourism etc
Total Value Drought Losses US$ 12.2 billion
This magnitude of drought damage and losses to agriculture and
livestock cannot be financed out of GOK’s budget and by the
Donor community only.

20. What is Index Based Insurance?
• Policy holders paid based on external “index” that triggers payments
to all insured clients
• Avoids problems that make traditional insurance unprofitable for
small, remote clients:
• Suited for risks affecting a large number of people simultaneously
and for which a suitable index exists.
– No transactions costs of measuring individual losses
– Preserves effort incentives (no moral hazard) as no single individual can
influence index.

21. • Based on satellite data on forage availability- NDVI , this insurance pays
out when forage scarcity is predicted to cause livestock deaths in an area.
DATA
• Livestock Mortality
• Satellite data on
forage availability
Response
Function
Index
• Predicted Livestock
Mortality
Designing IBLI
S S S S S S
Int Tr T N Wy = (I W )y + X α + X β + X γ +ε

22. IBLI Coverage
• First launched in Marsabit in January 2010
• Have developed contracts for all arid counties of
Kenya
• Contract provision extended to Isiolo and Wajir in
August 2013
• Also have a program in the Borana Zone of S.
Ethiopia – launched in July 2012

23. Implementing IBLI
Implementation of IBLI is a joint effort between ILRI
(with support of its technical and development
partners), commercial underwriters and implementing
partners on the ground (government, NGOs, CBOs etc).
EXTENSION, MARKETING, SALES

24. Preliminary results
• 33% drop in households
employing hunger strategies
• 50% drop in distress sales of
assets
• 33% drop in food aid reliance

25. Carbon sequestration by rangelands -
Qinghai Province, China

26. What can be done?
• Commercialization
• Defend livestock corridors to maintain mobility
• Build infrastructure – roads, markets, quarantine stations, market
services
• Link to fattening enterprises
• Develop identification and traceability systems
• Improve animal health care and veterinary services
• Diversification
• Explore options for payment for environmental services
• Institutional arrangements?
• Ensure legal entitlements to land and other resources
• Provide insurance

27. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
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