This study evaluates the impacts of urban road investment and operation in China, especially the spillover effect attributable to the investment of urban road projects. Using the synthetic control method and difference-in-differences technique and taking the opening of Jiaozhou Bay Bridge and its Subsea Tunnel in China on 30 June 2011 as a natural experiment, this paper investigates the causal effect between urban road investment and its economic impacts. Results show that the project has a positive externality in terms of its contribution to the output and employment: taken the industrial relative output as outcome variable, no matter whether the covariates are controlled or not, the parameters of the interactive terms are positive; taken the industrial relative employment rate as outcome variable, the gap between the treated unit and its counterpart indicates a direct program effect for the treated city as well as a spillover effect across the cities within the sample province. Furthermore, the permutation test ascertains that the probability of achieving a spillover effect as large as the treated city is around 5.88 per cent. Overall, the investment and operation of urban road transportation infrastructure has a noticeable spillover effect. Our results are robust across a series of placebo tests.
Sustainable New Towns and Transportation Planning; Reflection of A Case Study by Abdol Aziz Shahraki* in Advancements in Civil Engineering & Technology
INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM BASED TRAFFIC CONGESTION MODELLING FOR URBA...civej
This study attempts to make use of traffic behaviour on the aggregate level to estimate congestion on urban arterial and sub-arterial roads of a city exhibiting heterogeneous traffic conditions by breaking the route into independent segments and approximating the origin-destination based traffic flow behaviour of the segments. The expected travel time in making a trip is modelled against sectional traffic characteristics (flow and speed) at origin and destination points of road segments, and roadway and segment traffic characteristics such as diversion routes are also tried in accounting for travel time. Predicted travel time is then used along with free flow time to determine the state of congestion on the segments using a congestion
index (CI). A development of this kind may help in understanding traffic and congestion behaviour practically using easily accessible inputs, limited only to the nodes, and help in improving road network planning and management.
Posters summarizing dissertation research projects - presented by MSc students at the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds, April 2017. http://bit.ly/2re35Cs
www.its.leeds.ac.uk/courses/masters/dissertation
Many cities are attempting to reduce congestion through innovative transport policies and projects. This report explores the challenges city leaders face in choosing the right combination of solutions to address their short- and long-term urban mobility challenges. It aims to provide direction on how city leaders can navigate through these challenges and how they can work together with community groups and the private sector to transform their cities for the future.
Posters summarizing dissertation research projects to date, presented by MA and MSc students at the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds, April 2016.
http://bit.ly/1Yq5f8U
www.its.leeds.ac.uk/courses/masters/dissertation
Investigating willingness to pay for congestion pricing in peshawar universit...EditorIJAERD
Congested road is a perfect example of tragedy of the commons as there is no restriction for drivers not to
exploit it. Car users are independent in their traveling decisions but their decisions have negative consequences for
others for which they do not pay rather the non-users pay for them in the form of hard cash, inconvenience and lack of
safety. This unwanted but widely practiced phenomena has over-shadowed the livable environment even in universities
all across Pakistan particularly in Peshawar university campus (case study) where the environment is exacerbated by
minimum personalized vehicle holders for the maximum non-car commuters resulting from the free vehicular entrance
and biased provision of infrastructure. This leads to huge social divide, inequality and gender disparity. In addition to
finding appropriate rent for provision of new equitable, environment and gender friendly modes of transport like rental
bikes and golf carts, Willingness to pay for congestion pricing as proposed solution is investigated through online webbased questionnaire survey from 580 respondents and statistical analysis is used for selecting most feasible mode(s) of
alternate in-campus transportation. Results showed that 67.6% respondents were WTP for congestion charging and
55.3% selected golf carts as their preferred mode in campus followed by rental bike with 27.6%. Appropriate rent chosen
for golf cart was PKR 20 and less than PKR 20 for rental bikes by more than half of the respondents. Congestion pricing
was perceived as effective solution and proposed modes were opted as the preferred modes for traveling in campus.
Sustainable New Towns and Transportation Planning; Reflection of A Case Study by Abdol Aziz Shahraki* in Advancements in Civil Engineering & Technology
INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM BASED TRAFFIC CONGESTION MODELLING FOR URBA...civej
This study attempts to make use of traffic behaviour on the aggregate level to estimate congestion on urban arterial and sub-arterial roads of a city exhibiting heterogeneous traffic conditions by breaking the route into independent segments and approximating the origin-destination based traffic flow behaviour of the segments. The expected travel time in making a trip is modelled against sectional traffic characteristics (flow and speed) at origin and destination points of road segments, and roadway and segment traffic characteristics such as diversion routes are also tried in accounting for travel time. Predicted travel time is then used along with free flow time to determine the state of congestion on the segments using a congestion
index (CI). A development of this kind may help in understanding traffic and congestion behaviour practically using easily accessible inputs, limited only to the nodes, and help in improving road network planning and management.
Posters summarizing dissertation research projects - presented by MSc students at the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds, April 2017. http://bit.ly/2re35Cs
www.its.leeds.ac.uk/courses/masters/dissertation
Many cities are attempting to reduce congestion through innovative transport policies and projects. This report explores the challenges city leaders face in choosing the right combination of solutions to address their short- and long-term urban mobility challenges. It aims to provide direction on how city leaders can navigate through these challenges and how they can work together with community groups and the private sector to transform their cities for the future.
Posters summarizing dissertation research projects to date, presented by MA and MSc students at the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds, April 2016.
http://bit.ly/1Yq5f8U
www.its.leeds.ac.uk/courses/masters/dissertation
Investigating willingness to pay for congestion pricing in peshawar universit...EditorIJAERD
Congested road is a perfect example of tragedy of the commons as there is no restriction for drivers not to
exploit it. Car users are independent in their traveling decisions but their decisions have negative consequences for
others for which they do not pay rather the non-users pay for them in the form of hard cash, inconvenience and lack of
safety. This unwanted but widely practiced phenomena has over-shadowed the livable environment even in universities
all across Pakistan particularly in Peshawar university campus (case study) where the environment is exacerbated by
minimum personalized vehicle holders for the maximum non-car commuters resulting from the free vehicular entrance
and biased provision of infrastructure. This leads to huge social divide, inequality and gender disparity. In addition to
finding appropriate rent for provision of new equitable, environment and gender friendly modes of transport like rental
bikes and golf carts, Willingness to pay for congestion pricing as proposed solution is investigated through online webbased questionnaire survey from 580 respondents and statistical analysis is used for selecting most feasible mode(s) of
alternate in-campus transportation. Results showed that 67.6% respondents were WTP for congestion charging and
55.3% selected golf carts as their preferred mode in campus followed by rental bike with 27.6%. Appropriate rent chosen
for golf cart was PKR 20 and less than PKR 20 for rental bikes by more than half of the respondents. Congestion pricing
was perceived as effective solution and proposed modes were opted as the preferred modes for traveling in campus.
Traffic Stream Relationships of Two-Lane Highways: A Case of Akure-Ondo Road ...IJAEMSJORNAL
In the design and planning process of highway infrastructure, speed-flow-density relationships are useful tools for predicting the roadway capacity, determining adequate level-of-service of traffic flow and travel time for a given roadway. The speed-flow-density relationships currently used for transportation studies in Nigeria is derived from the Highway Capacity Manual, which does not reflect the true traffic situation on two-lane roads in Nigeria. Developing cost effective tools for describing these relationships in the context of a developing country like Nigeria is imperative. The aim of this study was to develop models to describe the relationship between traffic flow, speed and density on Akure-Ondo two-lane highway in southwest Nigeria. Moving observer technique was employed to collect traffic stream data over a stretch of 5km on the study segment during periods of uniform flow on weekdays. To describe the traffic stream relationships, two approaches namely: related and nonrelated traffic stream models were developed. The nonrelated traffic stream models gave inaccurate relationships while the related traffic stream modelling approach performed well at describing speed-flow, flow-density and flow-speed relationships with R2 values 0.62, 0.75, and 0.80 respectively. The relationships developed from related traffic stream models estimated maximum flow on the study segment as 330 veh/h at an optimum density of 4.44 veh/km. The speed at maximum flow was estimated as 74.5km/h, while the free flow speed was estimated as 149.027km/h.
The International Journal of Engineering & Science is aimed at providing a platform for researchers, engineers, scientists, or educators to publish their original research results, to exchange new ideas, to disseminate information in innovative designs, engineering experiences and technological skills. It is also the Journal's objective to promote engineering and technology education. All papers submitted to the Journal will be blind peer-reviewed. Only original articles will be published.
The papers for publication in The International Journal of Engineering& Science are selected through rigorous peer reviews to ensure originality, timeliness, relevance, and readability.
Sustainable Urban Transport Planning Considering Different Stakeholder Groups...BME
Sustainable urban transport requires smart and environmentally-friendly technical solutions. It also needs to meet the demands of different user groups, including current and potential future users, in order to avoid opposition of the citizens and to support sustainable development decisions. While these requirements are well-known, conducting full surveys of user needs and preferences are tedious and costly, and the interests of different user groups may be contradictory. We therefore developed a methodology based on the prevalent Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is capable of dealing with the inconsistencies and uncertainties of users’ responses by applying an Interval Analytic Hierarchy Process (IAHP) through comparing the results of passengers to reference stakeholder groups. For a case study in Mersin, a coastal city in southern Turkey with 1.7 Million inhabitants, three groups were surveyed with questionnaires: 40 users of the public transport system, 40 non-users, and 17 experts. Based on interval pairwise comparison matrices, consisting of whole judgments of all groups, the IAHP methodology could attain a consensual preference ranking for a future public transportation system between the three groups. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the factor ranking was very stable.
Abstract of master's thesis on traffic congestion in GhanaHayford Adjavor
This was a study aimed at bringing the merits of road pricing implementation, and drawing from lessons in other developing countries in order to solve the traffic congestion problem in the city of Accra.
Effects of Transit Oriented Development and POLICY BRIEF TRANSIT ORIENTED DE...Sparkles Soft
There are many potential advantages of Transit Oriented Development (TOD). However, implementation of Transit Oriented Development (TOD) cannot be ignored without cost and risk factors. Some researchers and practitioners argue that implementation of Transit Oriented Development (TOD) is not worthwhile to resolve the existing problems in the organizations. In this way, the research paper has effectively outlined the potential benefits and costs associated with the implementation of Transit Oriented Development (TOD). Dissertation help, Help in Dissertation, Assignment help, RAP writing services, Assignment writing services, Home work writing services, Research Analysis Project writing services, Unique writing services
Guest presentation to the Institute for Transport Studies by Keith Buchan, Policy Director of the Transport Planning Society (TPS), 12th November 2014
Keith Buchan outlines what the Transport Planning Society would like to see included in a transport manifesto for the new Government which will be elected in 2015.
Keith Buchan, is the Policy Director of the Transport Planning Society. He has been an Executive Director of Metropolitan Transport Research Unit (MTRU), an independent transport planning consultancy, since 1989. Prior to that he worked for local authorities, including the Greater London Council where he was responsible for implementing the Night and Weekend Lorry Ban. His work has included objectives led assessment, traffic restraint, ‘new generation’ bus priority, demand responsive transport and heavy vehicle studies. Keith recently completed a draft UK strategy to reduce carbon emissions from transport including aviation and shipping. He was a Government adviser for the 1997 national road traffic forecasts (NRTF) that were part of the original NATA in 1998, and is a member of the advisory group now working on the NATA Refresh.
Guest presentation Dr Chikage Miyoshi, April 2015.
www.cranfield.ac.uk/about/people-and-resources/academic-profiles/satm-ac-profile/dr-chikage-c-miyoshi.html
www.its.leeds.ac.uk/courses/masters/itslectureseries
Review of Transport Models in Indian Context & their sustainiblity in Indiayoougal
Despite the high cost of model development, and their short shelf life, little review of their performance has been done in India.
The presentation includes the basic introduction of models with their application & pros & cons in Indian scenario.
Transit-oriented development (TOD): Integrating rail and commercial developme...Atkins
Atkins' technical director Jason Hutchings explores the ways in which cities across the world can gain maximum benefit from their investment in transport, commercial and civic projects through transit oriented development (TOD). TOD facilitates and encourages the use of public transport and provides alternative revenue streams for transport providers and operators, reducing their reliance on state funding for capital investment and operation/maintenance costs. It means transit systems are more popular, accessible and better connected for the commuting population, and commercial property development can be integrated and benefit from such a holistic approach to critical city centre locations. But TOD is not without its challenges. Atkins illustrates the issues and solutions across a range of international projects.
This presentation was first delivered in May 2013 at the 3rd Annual Modern Railways Conference, Singapore.
To assess the risks involved in BOT PROJECT by studying a specific case of Implementation of
integrated road development program me(IRDP) in the city on built, operate & transport (BOT) basis. To Study
the individualistic approach of the involved parties.
BOT has been one of the recent innovations in project finance. The Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme is a
limited recourse financing technique. Many have adopted this approach as an alternative to traditional public
financing for infrastructure development projects.
This study examines the type of SOCIAL risk due to, force shutdown of toll booths due to public riots .This paper
mainly representing therisk inBOT due to political & public pressure. A case study of IRDP project
implemented in municipal corporation area through BOT is studied in detail
Traffic Stream Relationships of Two-Lane Highways: A Case of Akure-Ondo Road ...IJAEMSJORNAL
In the design and planning process of highway infrastructure, speed-flow-density relationships are useful tools for predicting the roadway capacity, determining adequate level-of-service of traffic flow and travel time for a given roadway. The speed-flow-density relationships currently used for transportation studies in Nigeria is derived from the Highway Capacity Manual, which does not reflect the true traffic situation on two-lane roads in Nigeria. Developing cost effective tools for describing these relationships in the context of a developing country like Nigeria is imperative. The aim of this study was to develop models to describe the relationship between traffic flow, speed and density on Akure-Ondo two-lane highway in southwest Nigeria. Moving observer technique was employed to collect traffic stream data over a stretch of 5km on the study segment during periods of uniform flow on weekdays. To describe the traffic stream relationships, two approaches namely: related and nonrelated traffic stream models were developed. The nonrelated traffic stream models gave inaccurate relationships while the related traffic stream modelling approach performed well at describing speed-flow, flow-density and flow-speed relationships with R2 values 0.62, 0.75, and 0.80 respectively. The relationships developed from related traffic stream models estimated maximum flow on the study segment as 330 veh/h at an optimum density of 4.44 veh/km. The speed at maximum flow was estimated as 74.5km/h, while the free flow speed was estimated as 149.027km/h.
The International Journal of Engineering & Science is aimed at providing a platform for researchers, engineers, scientists, or educators to publish their original research results, to exchange new ideas, to disseminate information in innovative designs, engineering experiences and technological skills. It is also the Journal's objective to promote engineering and technology education. All papers submitted to the Journal will be blind peer-reviewed. Only original articles will be published.
The papers for publication in The International Journal of Engineering& Science are selected through rigorous peer reviews to ensure originality, timeliness, relevance, and readability.
Sustainable Urban Transport Planning Considering Different Stakeholder Groups...BME
Sustainable urban transport requires smart and environmentally-friendly technical solutions. It also needs to meet the demands of different user groups, including current and potential future users, in order to avoid opposition of the citizens and to support sustainable development decisions. While these requirements are well-known, conducting full surveys of user needs and preferences are tedious and costly, and the interests of different user groups may be contradictory. We therefore developed a methodology based on the prevalent Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is capable of dealing with the inconsistencies and uncertainties of users’ responses by applying an Interval Analytic Hierarchy Process (IAHP) through comparing the results of passengers to reference stakeholder groups. For a case study in Mersin, a coastal city in southern Turkey with 1.7 Million inhabitants, three groups were surveyed with questionnaires: 40 users of the public transport system, 40 non-users, and 17 experts. Based on interval pairwise comparison matrices, consisting of whole judgments of all groups, the IAHP methodology could attain a consensual preference ranking for a future public transportation system between the three groups. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the factor ranking was very stable.
Abstract of master's thesis on traffic congestion in GhanaHayford Adjavor
This was a study aimed at bringing the merits of road pricing implementation, and drawing from lessons in other developing countries in order to solve the traffic congestion problem in the city of Accra.
Effects of Transit Oriented Development and POLICY BRIEF TRANSIT ORIENTED DE...Sparkles Soft
There are many potential advantages of Transit Oriented Development (TOD). However, implementation of Transit Oriented Development (TOD) cannot be ignored without cost and risk factors. Some researchers and practitioners argue that implementation of Transit Oriented Development (TOD) is not worthwhile to resolve the existing problems in the organizations. In this way, the research paper has effectively outlined the potential benefits and costs associated with the implementation of Transit Oriented Development (TOD). Dissertation help, Help in Dissertation, Assignment help, RAP writing services, Assignment writing services, Home work writing services, Research Analysis Project writing services, Unique writing services
Guest presentation to the Institute for Transport Studies by Keith Buchan, Policy Director of the Transport Planning Society (TPS), 12th November 2014
Keith Buchan outlines what the Transport Planning Society would like to see included in a transport manifesto for the new Government which will be elected in 2015.
Keith Buchan, is the Policy Director of the Transport Planning Society. He has been an Executive Director of Metropolitan Transport Research Unit (MTRU), an independent transport planning consultancy, since 1989. Prior to that he worked for local authorities, including the Greater London Council where he was responsible for implementing the Night and Weekend Lorry Ban. His work has included objectives led assessment, traffic restraint, ‘new generation’ bus priority, demand responsive transport and heavy vehicle studies. Keith recently completed a draft UK strategy to reduce carbon emissions from transport including aviation and shipping. He was a Government adviser for the 1997 national road traffic forecasts (NRTF) that were part of the original NATA in 1998, and is a member of the advisory group now working on the NATA Refresh.
Guest presentation Dr Chikage Miyoshi, April 2015.
www.cranfield.ac.uk/about/people-and-resources/academic-profiles/satm-ac-profile/dr-chikage-c-miyoshi.html
www.its.leeds.ac.uk/courses/masters/itslectureseries
Review of Transport Models in Indian Context & their sustainiblity in Indiayoougal
Despite the high cost of model development, and their short shelf life, little review of their performance has been done in India.
The presentation includes the basic introduction of models with their application & pros & cons in Indian scenario.
Transit-oriented development (TOD): Integrating rail and commercial developme...Atkins
Atkins' technical director Jason Hutchings explores the ways in which cities across the world can gain maximum benefit from their investment in transport, commercial and civic projects through transit oriented development (TOD). TOD facilitates and encourages the use of public transport and provides alternative revenue streams for transport providers and operators, reducing their reliance on state funding for capital investment and operation/maintenance costs. It means transit systems are more popular, accessible and better connected for the commuting population, and commercial property development can be integrated and benefit from such a holistic approach to critical city centre locations. But TOD is not without its challenges. Atkins illustrates the issues and solutions across a range of international projects.
This presentation was first delivered in May 2013 at the 3rd Annual Modern Railways Conference, Singapore.
To assess the risks involved in BOT PROJECT by studying a specific case of Implementation of
integrated road development program me(IRDP) in the city on built, operate & transport (BOT) basis. To Study
the individualistic approach of the involved parties.
BOT has been one of the recent innovations in project finance. The Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme is a
limited recourse financing technique. Many have adopted this approach as an alternative to traditional public
financing for infrastructure development projects.
This study examines the type of SOCIAL risk due to, force shutdown of toll booths due to public riots .This paper
mainly representing therisk inBOT due to political & public pressure. A case study of IRDP project
implemented in municipal corporation area through BOT is studied in detail
AHP-DEMATEL Based Research on the Influencing Factors of the Daily Maintenanc...Dr. Amarjeet Singh
Highway maintenance is equally crucial across borders; this paper first conducts statistics and case study research on daily federal and provincial highway maintenance costs in China's principal influencing factors. Finally, it looks at those results with the tools of AHP-DEMAT. Yet, the overall degree of influence of each factor of influence is collected to classify the significant influence factors. The results found that: the main factors influencing the daily maintenance costs of national and provincial trunk highways are: highway grade, traffic flow, service life, structure type, topography, pavement thickness, and pavement width; the influence of climate factors on costs can be adequately considered when formulating standards for daily maintenance costs for provinces/regions with a broad geographic range.
Safer Growth: How advanced science can help safeguard China’s people and envi...DuPont
Visit http://www.DuPont.com/FutureChina to learn more about how DuPont collaborates with partners in China to solve challenges related to rapid urbanization.
If current trends in China hold, nearly one billion people will live in cities by 2030, with an urban economy generating as much as 95% of the national economic output. Rapid urbanization has helped lift the living standards of millions of Chinese people, but it is also putting significant pressure on infrastructure, workplace safety, and the natural environment.
Over the years, DuPont has helped develop technology and expertise that can help sustain a rapid pace of economic growth and urbanization in China without sacrificing public safety.
According to DuPont, the key elements of a sound protection strategy for China include ensuring a safe and sustainable growth of infrastructure, improving overall worker safety culture, protecting the natural environment, and promoting public safety.
This white paper was created by Fortune Industry Perspectives and DuPont. It is the third in a series showcasing sustainable development thought leadership, which will help inform the discussions at the 2013 Fortune Global Forum, June 6–8, 2013, in Chengdu, China.
Sweet found in his research that a little more congestion might actually be good for the economy of any uncongested city. A higher level of congestion is initially associated with faster economic growth. But, above a certain threshold, congestion starts to become a drag on growth. Specifically, congestion seems to slow down job growth when it gets to be worse than about 35 to 37 hours of delay per commuter per year or about four-and-a-half minutes per one-way trip, relative to free-flowing traffic.
Port Efficiency and Supply Chain: Implication for BangladeshDr. Amarjeet Singh
Port and supply chains are closely connected to each other as a port is considered as an important node of the global supply chain. Sothe efficiency level of port has an impact on the performance of supply chain operations. Chittagong port is the principal seaport of Bangladesh and it provides a major gateway to the outside world. The cost of doing business is increasing as a result of the inefficiency in the main seaport of the country. In this paper, an effort has been taken to examine the efficiency of Chittagong Port and the causal factors of inefficiency. The impact of inefficiency at Chittagong port on the supply chain of Bangladesh has also been identified. To do this, at first a relationship has been built between port efficiency and supply chain in respect of Bangladesh.
Relevant data has been gathered through extensive review of the literature, field surveys, interacting with top management of different business entities such as shipping agency, freight forwarder, logistics companies, exporter, importer as well as Government regulatory and monitoring bodies using both the structured and unstructured questionnaires.
The study has revealed that theinefficiency at Chittagong port causes serious consequences on the supply chain of exporter and importer and lead to loss and disruption of trade and ultimately incur extra costs and time. This paper, therefore, recommends a substantial infrastructure improvement to Chittagong port along with other related measures in order to facilitate the supply chain of exporter and importer.
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND USE AND TRAFFIC FLOW TO THE PERFORMANCE OF THE ROAD C...IAEME Publication
This paper presents the results of a study of roads performance which is influenced by existing traffic flow and land use along the roads corridors. A model approachto know the influence of traffic flow and land use on the performance of thecorridors ofManado-Bitungin Indonesia,is using Structural EquationModeling (SEM). The results of the study showed that the performance of the corridor of the road Manado-BitungModel with the approach of SEMis the model fit based on the criteria of Goodness of Fit (GoF). Aspect of traffic flow and land use provide the greatest impact on the performance of the corridor roads of Manado-Bitungwith value of 0.591 and 0.400 respectively. Meanwhile, the transportation systemand transportation users did not give any direct impact to the performance of the corridor.On the other hand, transportation system gave the direct impact to transportation users (0.657), the land use give direct impact to the traffic flow (0.644)and the transportation users in fact gave direct impact to the traffic flow (0.181).
Deep Sea Port and the National Development: Perspective of BangladeshDr. Amarjeet Singh
The deep sea port development as an economic infrastructure influences positively on the growth of a country. The economic history of Britain, Netherlands, and Singapore, known as the maritime powers in the world, undoubtedly proves the important role of ports played in the development of their economies. Establishment of a deep-sea port has become strategically very critical for Bangladesh considering its potential impact on the development and economic growth of the country.Port economics and macroeconomics are closely related.So changes in port traffic or operation and port organization has a significant impact on national economy especially on the hinterland. This study, therefore, has focused on the importance of deep seaport in the national development of Bangladesh. Moreover, the paper gives an overview of a deep seaport and national development in respect of Bangladesh.The study also indicates the effect of a deep seaport on national development. At the end, this study states some recommendations for the establishment of the deep sea port.Those Includes-Studies on the selection of strategic location, details investigation of hinterland connectivity, the decision on investment and proper planning etc.
Although performance appraisal is concerned with the evaluation of workers job performance, it at the same time serves to highlight the specific objectives of an organization. As the employee is being evaluated the organization is also evaluating itself by comparing objectives and standards of performance, reviews the whole appraisal framework and design as well as organizational values and culture. Performance appraisal is a veritable tool for organizations to evaluate and increase the quality of education and training of their workforce with a view to developing lifelong learning patterns and strategies to sustain productivity throughout longer working periods. Motivation as it relates to employee productivity is often behind the drive for performance and self-actualization and provides opportunities for higher productivity. Productivity is an important measure of goal achievement because getting more done with less resources increases organizational profitability. Using the exploratory research design and 109 participants the result of the study indicates a strong positive correlation between performance appraisal and employee productivity. It suggests that the issue of performance appraisal in charitable organizations should be addressed. In view of the result of the study, the paper recommends that performance appraisal should carefully review employee’s strengths and weaknesses against requirements for possible future higher responsibilities.
The integration between innovation and business is a key factor in competitiveness between organizations. That is, innovation applied to a business makes no sense if not considered as an integral tool for the processes of the organization. Companies should therefore adopt a policy where innovation plays a strategic role in the design of business models to become lean, effective and competitive entities (Moraleda, 2004). The objective of this paper is to show the importance of innovation within companies, identifying the concept, the various models that different entities might adopt in order to develop better processes of innovation, as well as indicators that represent innovation at global and national levels in order to develop strategies that lead to an increase in competitiveness. For this work the method used was a bibliographical review of relevant articles from a range of authors was conducted.
The practitioners and academicians in the business arena are highly concern about the enhancement of employee performance in this competitive age for achievement of business goals. Considering the issue, this study aimed to measure the influence of Human Resource Management (HRM) practices on the performance of employees. The data of this study have been collected from 392 on-the-job operational level employees using survey method who are working at different garment factories in Bangladesh. The collected data are analyzed through structural equation modeling to partial least square method. The study empirically proves that employee training and development, promotion opportunity, and job security has significant influence on the employees’ performance. Theoretically, this study proves that training and development, job security and promotion opportunity together influence on the performance of employees in the developing economy. The practitioners and policy makers of the organizations are expected to make necessary adjustments in their existing HRM practices based on the findings of this study in the context of Bangladesh for enhancing the employees’ performance level so that their whole-hearted efforts can be gained for the achievement of business goals.
Child labor is one of the issues receiving much attention from researchers and scholars around the world. Child labor still occurs in most countries around the world. Viet Nam is also one of the countries with relatively high child labor and increasing trend. This article is based on critical discourse analysis and data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam to analyze some fundamental issues of child labor in Vietnam, thereby giving policy suggestions to the Vietnam government in minimizing the current child labor situation.
The rapid trend of changes and social issues in managing the global workforce has forced organizations to look for innovative ways of enhancing the job satisfaction of employees. Among these innovative approaches is the provision of Flexible Working Arrangements (FWAs). The purpose of this exploratory research was to identify the effects of FWAs, i.e., flextime schedule, compressed workweek, and telecommuting on job satisfaction from the perspective of the Ethiopian national employees of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) in Addis Ababa. To achieve this objective both descriptive and inferential statistics were conducted. The total population of the study was 250; out of which, 71% of responses were collected. A primary data collection method was implemented using a structured questionnaire. The analysis showed that there is significant positive effect of flextime schedule (R = .39, R2 = .264, p = .001) and compressed workweek (R = .39, R2 = .159, p = .039). This means that increase in the use of flextime schedules and compressed workweek enhances job satisfaction for employees of the ECA in Addis Ababa. The independent variables reported R = .39 and R2 = .15 which means that 15% of corresponding variations in employee job satisfaction can be explained by flexible working arrangements. Nevertheless, this study found out that there are no significant relationship of telecommuting (R = .39, R2 = .065, p = .398) on job satisfaction. Therefore, since the provision of FWAs is at the nascent stage, further studies on the effect of telecommuting on job satisfaction from Ethiopian employees context are highly recommended.
Poor public management defined by corruption and lack of prudence in public life continues to hold Nigeria hostage and makes good governance difficult. Since the 1980s government has been using many methods including the processes of privatization and commercialization as means of re-engineering the public sector for total quality management, and to increase the share of the public sector’s contribution to the gross domestic product. The experiment never achieved the desired level of success partly due to lack of political will on the part of government to wedge a total war against corruption, and also partly because the public sector is a large scale administration that has many entry and revolving doors which government finds difficult to close. These limitations provide the incentives for widespread public corruption that is recognized as one of the greatest challenges of government in carrying out its mandate. 110 respondents participated in this study conducted through the exploratory research design. The participants provided useful data that were triangulated with data from secondary sources for the purpose of the study. To achieve the objective of the investigation, data were analyzed through statistical techniques and the result showed significant positive correlation between good governance and good management. It was recommended that appointments in the public sector should feature a combination of people from private and public sectors of the economy to enhance competence with the aim of reducing public sector corruption. Further study should examine the reasons behind rising budget deficits as a way of reducing cost of governance in Nigeria.
In this article, we analyze in the Malian context the link between the structure of the shareholding and the sustainability of companies based on data from the census of industrial enterprises of the Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2015. The results show that Mali’s economic opening option in the 1980s, strengthened in the 1990s following the implementation of the Structural Adjustment Programs, resulting in the state’s withdrawal from the management of enterprises, have enabled the emergence of private enterprises in almost all sectors of economic activity. However, shareholding in industrial enterprises has suffered from poor governance. It also shows that the number of women entrepreneurs is close to that of men. Between 2010 and 2014, the majority of shareholders are in the agri-food sector. The majority of the investment is in the metal and metallurgical sector.
This paper’s objective is to present the importance of the strategic planning in business management. Speaking of strategic planning is always speaking in general terms and how to fix paths of behavior will necessarily affect deeply and significantly in the future evolution of the company or organization that adopts it. Today we think of the organization as part of an environment and in terms of options or choices based on what you have, of its surroundings and the opportunities or pathways that can lead to achieving the objective, (Garrido, 2009). For this work the method used was a bibliographical review of relevant articles from a range of authors was conducted. The conclusions were that the be properly analyzed and adapted to the precise conditions and characteristics of the small business or, more generally, to any type of business for which the planning is intended. Strategic planning brings multiple benefits (which exceed its disadvantages) if applied in the right way, however, there are inherent risks, which can be overcome with proper monitoring and control.
The study examined the relationship between non-financial incentives and workers’ motivation in Akwa Ibom State Civil Service exploring five key variables of continuing professional development, performance feedback, employee employment, employee participation in decision-making and task autonomy. Survey research design was adopted involving the use of questionnaire to gather data from 392 respondents drawn from a population of 20465 civil servants in state using Taro Yamene Sample Size Determination Table. The sample was drawn across all ministries and departments through stratified and convenience sampling techniques. Data collected were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Hypotheses were tested at 0.05 level of significance. The five dimensions of non-financial incentives were positively correlated with workers’ motivation from the results of the analysis. Continuing Professional Development (CPD) had the highest correlation value (r = 0.33, P<0.01). Also, the five null hypotheses were rejected implying that the variables of study influence workers’ motivation in Akwa Ibom State Civil Service, Nigeria with beta coefficients and t-values of CPD (0.29;4.313); PF (0.117; 3.500); EE (0.2.141); PDM (0.182; 2.935), and TA (0.231;2.817). It was concluded that since workers’ motivation is a vital tool to organizational effectiveness and growth, employers should explore more of non-financial incentives in formulating and implementing employee benefits related policies.
This literature review is organized in five sections. Firstly, we begin with general ideas and continue with the origin of the fraudulent. Secondly, we discuss the struggle of the phenomena, insisting on the available mechanisms. Finally, we’ll discuss the link between audit and fraud.
Accounting function aims at providing accurate and sufficient accounting information to facilitate proper financial reporting and management performance. Accounting information is usually in the form of periodic or annual financial statements which are products of costing, financial and management accounting prepared for the benefit of a number of external interest groups. Accounting has its roots in the stewardship approach and as a management performance tool to guide the agent and the principal over the exact status of the going concern. Accounting function also involves financial statement analysis, interpreting the accounts by computing and evaluating ratios which relate pairs of financial information or items with one another. This analysis of ratios can be cross-sectional comparing the results of one company with another or trend. In doing so close attention is usually paid to profitability ratio to help keep pace with effective management performance. The exploratory research design was adopted for the study and result showed positive correlation between accounting function and management performance. The study was not exhaustive, therefore, further study should examine the relationship between audit failure and business failure as a matter of finding a solution to the problem. It was recommended that management should always carefully study audit reports to enhance decision making and management performance.
This study examines the effect of the trademark on consumer behavior of consumers of air conditioners in Sudan, in order to know the dimensions of the trademark that affect consumer behavior in Sudan, and provide information to companies on the dimensions of the trademark that affect the purchasing decision of the customer and contribute to customer satisfaction. The study adopted descriptive analytical method using a sample of 230 individuals who consume air conditioners in Sudan. The results showed that there is a positive significant relationship between the trademark of air conditioning and consumer behavior as well as a positive significant relationship between the trademark name of air conditioning and consumer behavior and finally there is a positive significant relationship between the trademark logo and consumer behavior.
In recent years, retired workers eligible for social security receive their emoluments from the appropriate regulatory agency and this provides more realistic evidence on the better living standard of the aged (retirees) under the scheme. Empirically, this paper examines the impact of social security on economic growth in Ghana using time series secondary (monthly) data ranging from 2000 – 2018. The author answers in two questions: 1) how significant are pensioners benefit payments dependent on economic growth and also, 2) how business environmental policy is contributing to economic performance as far as pensioners well-being are concerned. Using STATA analytical software, the findings show a positive significant relationship between social security and economic growth. The study concludes by outlining appropriate policy measures to help strengthen the current social security scheme in Ghana.
This research begins by showing the different meanings attributed to the term cluster by different currents and authors, which suggests definitions that are found around its spatial framework. Next, the factors that intervene in the competitiveness of a region and its growth are shown, for the development of these, Porter’s model of competitiveness which was taken as reference, and the contexts: geographical and economic. Therefore, the methodology was used based on a qualitative design, with descriptive and correlational scope since it will analyze differences of each cluster, with respect to the factors of dimensions, establishments, growth, economic impact and policies. To do this, the information-gathering tool was two semi-structured interviews with cluster leaders in both countries, because the approach is based on data collection methods that are not completely standardized or predetermined. And finally, the results of the comparison of the Mexican Bajío automotive cluster with the German cluster located in Baden-Württemberg are presented.
This research aims at identifying the impact of excellence in drawing up the following four marketing mix strategies (Product, Pricing, Promotion and Distribution) of the small and medium enterprises in Jordan, in terms of their marketing performance in its dimensions (Sales Growth, Profit Growth, Customer Attraction and Customer Retention).In order to reach the results of this study, A total of (187) valid questionnaire surveys were collected from companies belong to the SME Association in Jordan. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) approach was used to analyze the collected data. The empirical results indicated there is a significant relationship between the building of marketing strategies of the marketing mix elements in the Jordanian SME and their marketing performance, by (sales growth, profit growth, customer attraction, and customer retention) dimensions. Consequently, decision makers in small and medium organizations need to choose strategies based on their target market to the positive impact on the mind of the consumer, which in turn could improve modern scientific methods in SME to divide their markets into sub-market sectors.
The study investigates the impact of team building on organisational productivity. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of team building among the members of the selected case study and to assess the effect of training and retraining of team members on organisational productivity. The study also x-rayed the absence of team building in a workplace which led to low levels of turnover and productivity. the total population of the study was 750 while researcher employed Yaro Yamane sampling technique to select sample size of 261 because of the large population and hypothesis were tested using Pearson correlation. The finding revealed that if members of the team can work in synergy without considering the differences in the likes of level of educational background and others, the expected productivity will be very high. It was also observed that capabilities of team leader in carrying out the assigned task determined its output especially if the team leader understands the technical knowhow of job and he is friendly with co-team members with a lot of motivation, that this would definitely enhance employees’ efficiencies and productivities. The study recommends that team members should trust, support and respect one another individual differences in order to accomplish group common goals and tasks.
Compared with general commercial reverse logistics operators, the recovery and treatment of expired drugs and medical waste is a complex and highly technically difficult project. The qualifications required by the relevant service providers are also more stringent. For medical institutions, the selection of reverse logistics operators is always a critical issue. On the perspective of sustainability, this paper aims to investigate and explore the critical factors of selecting a medical reverse logistics service provider. Through the process of the Delphi method, the experts’ assessments were collected, and 24 factors affecting the selection of medical reverse logistics service provider were screened and summarized. Then, Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) was employed to calculate the total influence values and net influence values between factors that could be used to draw the visual causal map. Referring the causal map, “Green process operation level” and “Recycling process greening degree” are significantly higher than other factors in terms of total influence value and net influence value. Therefore, they can be regarded as crucial factors. This finding implies that medical reverse logistics providers must have the ability to improve the greening of facilities, as well as equipment, integrating existing processes to make it greener and environmentally friendly.
The major objective of any firm is to maximize the shareholders wealth. This is evidence through dividend yield and payout ratio and this encapsulate into the dividend policy of a company. The research purpose aimed at examining the influence that dividend policy has on the volatility of share prices among the listed insurance corporations in Kenya. Research design, approach and method: Data was collected from listed insurance corporations over a 10-year period with a total of 49 data points. The Pearson correlation and ordinary regression analysis were employed. The results reveal the existence of a positive link among the study variables. The correlations were found to be substantial at ninety-five percent confidence level. It is worth noting that the model summary shows forty-three-point one percent of changes in the volatility of stock price are explicated by dividend yield and payout ratio. ANOVA statistics which examines whether the analytical model as set out in the study explains variations in the dependent variable concluded that the model is analytically substantial. The outcome revealed a statistically significant positive link between stock price variations and the ratio of dividend payout. Research also established a statistically substantial negative interrelation between volatility of stock prices and dividend return. Results therefore recommend that companies should have dividend policies which are mapped to shareholders wealth maximization objective. The study suggests further studies be undertaken to determine whether there exists an analytically substantial difference between the dividend policies of various sectors in the economy.
This study is about the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on economic growth of Bangladesh. Economic growth of Bangladesh is measured in terms of annual nominal GDP growth rate. Least squared regression model has been employed considering exchange rate, export, import and inflation rate as independent variables and gross domestic product as the dependent variable in this study. The results reveal that export and import have significant positive impact on GDP growth rate. The other variables (exchange rate and inflation) are not significant, indicating that there exists no significant relationship among the variables. The findings will help the policy makers to make policies concerning the country’s economic growth to remain robust in the near future.
The Research aims on Human Resource Management and innovation has to date relied on a theoretical assumption that there exists an identifiable set of HR practices which organizations seeking to be innovative should adopt. However, analysis of the various prescriptions of HR practices for innovation reveals a high level of internal inconsistency, leading to conflicting advice for practitioners. Furthermore, a review of empirical research on the topic indicates that HR practices within innovative organizations are remarkably similar to those found in the best practice literature This raises questions about the link between strategy and HRM, and about the theoretical foundations of research on HRM and innovation. Drawing on recent research on HRM and firm performance, I suggest that research on HRM and innovation can benefit from incorporating elements from both contingency theory and best practice approaches into the existing configuration theory approach. A change in direction for both theoretical and empirical research on HRM and innovation is proposed. This paper is laid out as follows. In part one, I ask what a strategy of innovation is, and consider what employee behaviors are believed to be consistent with such a strategy. The second section compares and contrasts different authors’ prescriptions of HR practices for innovation, and also compares the findings of research on HRM and innovation with the findings of the best practice approach. In the final part I consider the implications of MY review for future research on this topic. I propose a broadening of the theoretical base on which research on HRM and innovation is founded, and discuss the particular challenges involved in conducting empirical research on HR systems for innovation.
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2. Business, Management and Economics Research
128
The spillover effects can be measured by indicators like industry output and employment rate. In searching for
causal links between the investment and operation of urban road infrastructure and its economic impacts we mostly
use the synthetic control method (SCM) because it is a powerful econometric strategy that has been widely used
recently in this context and perhaps the first time for being used to analyze the urban road spillovers in China.
This paper aims to report on a microeconometric investigation of the spillovers associated with the Jiaozhou
Bay Bridge and Jiaozhou Bay Tunnel. Regarding the former, it is currently the longest sea-crossing bridge in the
world, and is 26707 meters in length, of which the sea-crossing part is 25881 meters long and 18.5 meters wide;
whereas the latter is the longest subsea tunnel in China and also the third longest one in the world, it is 7797 meters
in lengths, of which the subsea part is 4095 meters long and 21.5 meters wide. They are so named because both are
connected to the Jiaozhou Bay and are located in Qingdao as well, a prefecture-level city of Shandong province,
China; either the Jiaozhou Bay Bridge (Figure-1) or the Jiaozhou Bay Subsea Tunnel (Figure-2) has nearly the same
construction period and opening time. The Subsea Tunnel got started on June 25 of 2008 and was put into use on
June 30 of 2011 after nearly five years of construction, with the total investment being 4.059 bn Yuan. Due to the
complex marine corrosion environment, the magnitude of endurance is much more stringent than that of other
underground water and ridge tunnels, thus the structure and operation equipments must suffice to the 100-year
design service life. By contrast, the Bay Bridge with the total investment being 9.04 bn yuan and a 15-year
investment payback period and a twenty-five-year operation period, is less complex in terms of its construction
difficulty. The major difference between them is that the bridge extends to an entrance of an inter-province highway
whereas the subsea tunnel simply connects the roads across the Jiaozhou Bay.
For simplicity, we consider the mentioned bridge and tunnel as one urban road program. Prior to the opening of
the tunnel and bridge, people has to commute by ferry or by highway; both are highly restricted by the weather
condition such as heavy fog or/and strong wind. More importantly, the commute cost is economical, for instance, the
average one-way fare for passengers was Rmb 7-12 yuan (in 2000 yuan). Let alone the toll for vehicles to go through
the Jiaozhou Bay. By contrast, the current one-way ticket for each person is only 2 yuan for the same physical
distance, and 10-100 yuan for different types of vehicles. On average, the present toll is only about one-fourth the
previous price level; furthermore, it only takes 5-7 minutes to go through the tunnel compared to the respective 40
minutes or one and a half hours by ferry or by highway. Additionally, as of June 30, 2020, the tunnel has safely run
for 9 years or 3287 days, with the accumulated passage of 0.15 billion vehicles and 0.6 billion passengers. Assuming
that the yearly average passage including passengers and vehicles is 0.083 billion people per year, thus we derive the
cost-effectiveness ratio that is around 48.9 yuan per person. Compared to the situation before 2011 when people
could only commute by ferry or by highway, this cost-effectiveness ratio is quite low. Regarding the Jiaozhou Bay
Bridge, with the cost-effectiveness ratio being about 1176 yuan per vehicle, which is also pretty low compared to the
same kind of projects. To the spillover effects associated with the road program we will turn since it has surely
passed the feasibility study before construction.
Figure-1. The Jiaozhou Bay Bridge
Source: https://baike.so.com/doc/2827423-2983999.html
Figure-2. An Interier of the Jiaozhou Bay Subsea Tunnel(one-way)
Source: https://baike.so.com/doc/6050988-6264007.html
3. Business, Management and Economics Research
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2. Data and Method
The operation of Jiaozhou Bay Subsea Tunnel as well as the Jiaozhou Bay Bridge can be considered as a natural
experiment. We will focuses on one city, namely Qingdao, and two outcome variables: the industry relative output
and the industry relative employment rate. As donor pool, we consider 16 cities which have no such treatment during
the same period. Also, we consider the year of 2011 as the timeline of treatment.
2.1. Data
In this essay, we have 17 available prefecture-level cities across Shandong province, they are Jinan, Qingdao,
Zibo, Zaozhuang, Dongying, Yantai, Weifang, Jining, Taian, Weihai, Rizhao, Laiwu, Linyi, Dezhou, Liaocheng,
Binzhou and Heze. Among which, Qingdao is the treated unit, while the remaining 16 cities becomes the donor pool.
In addition, explanatory variables include the log of highway mileage, the log of per capita GDP, percent of finance
expenditure in GDP, the log of population density, the log of year-end balance of financial institution deposits, the
log of beds in hospitals of each city, the log of internet users, the industry relative employment rate of 2005, 2008
and 2010, respectively. Those predictive variables are also used to capture the demographic, and other socio-
economic state.
Notice that we employ indicators such as industry relative output and its employment rate to examine the project
impacts. The first indicator is each city’s industrial output over the mean of the all sample cities’ industrial output.
Similarly, we can get the industry relative employment rate by substituting the respective number of employees and
its mean for the industrial output and its mean (Gao et al., 2012; Hu and Sun, 2014; Liu and Fan, 2013; Liu and
Zeng, 2018; Yang and Zhou, 2013).
Given the goodness-of-fit and the robust of control unit and based upon Hu and Sun (2014) and Liu and Fan
(2013), we add several relevant factors as predictors which contain highway mileage, per capita GDP, percent of
finance expenditure in GDP, population density, year-end balance of financial institution deposits, number of beds in
hospitals and number of internet users (Liu and Fan, 2013; Liu and Zeng, 2018). Among which the highway mileage
stands for the urban road infrastructure, per capita GDP denotes city productivity, the ratio of expenditure in GDP
denotes the market level, population density means the city aggregation effect, and year-end balance of financial
institution deposits signals the financial level. Finally, the number of beds in hospitals and number of internet users
denotes the respective medical and information level of each city.
2.2. Method
In order to measure the impact of the urban road transport program on treated unit, we mostly use the SCM as
long as there is a synthetic unit for the real unit. In case there is no such synthetic unit, we then use the difference-in-
differences instead. For the sake of brevity, we proceed as if simply one city or unit is exposed to the intervention. In
addition, we use the terms “city” or “unit” or “counterpart”, “covariate variables” or “covariates”, “treatment” or
“intervention” interchangeably.
The SCM is potent to extend the counterfactual methodology to evaluate program or policy effect (Abadie and
Gardeazabal, 2003; Abadie et al., 2010). This approach considers the missing counterfactual of a concrete treated
unit as a weighted average of several control units (aka donor pool). The weights can be computed by minimizing a
vector-distance between the treated unit and the control units over a series of pre-intervention covariates. Notice that
this methodology implies a least square minimization, in other words, a linear conditional mean of the treated unit’s
covariates in the vector space spanned by the donor pool’s covariates. Additionally, Giovanni (2019) put forward an
extension fashion of SCM, in which the data must be well balanced. The principal difference between SCM and its
extension is that the latter outperforms the former when departing from the initial of the pre-treatment period. In
essence, the two types of SCM are the same because both offer a small pre-treatment prediction error, only that the
extension version of SCM assumes a nonparametric estimation of the weights. Given the alternatives between SCM
and the extension of SCM, we prefer to the former mainly because our panel data is somewhat unbalanced. Also,
SCM is data-driven and has no requirements for sample size. With the above features, no wonder SCM has been
widely employed in a variety of policy effect assessment as well as program evaluation (Bueno and Valente, 2019;
Castillo et al., 2017; Hsiao and Wan, 2014; Peter, 2016). In contrast, the difference-in-differences technology might
be biased since it chooses control units at random, thus resulting in a biased estimator of the counterfactual. In our
case, however, only when no synthetic unit of the treated city is found shall we adopt the difference-in-differences
approach. Thus, the overall effect of a given program may be estimated with less bias.
Based on Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) and Abadie et al. (2010), assume that we have J+1 available
prefecture-level cities, without the loss of generality, suppose that simply the first city is exposed to the intervention,
so that we have J remaining cities as donor pool. For simplicity, also assume that the first city is uninterruptedly
exposed to the intervention of interest after initial intervention period.
Let Yit
N
denote the potential outcome which could be observed for city i at time t in the absence of the
intervention, for cities i = 1,…, J+1, and time periods t =1, …,T. Let T0 be the number of pre-intervention periods,
with 1≤T0<T. Let Yit
1
be the outcome which could be observed for city i at time t if city i is exposed to the
intervention during periods T0+1 to T. Further, we assume the intervention has no impact on the outcome prior to the
implementation period, thus for t∈ {1, …, T0}and i∈{1, …, N}, Yit
N
= Yit
1
always holds.
4. Business, Management and Economics Research
130
Let
N
itit YY 1
it be the treatment effect for city i at time t, and let Dit be binary, taking the value 1 for treated
city and 0 for control cities. Thus, the observed outcome for city i at time t is itit DYY it
N
it . Our goal is to
estimate the program effect
TT 1101
,,
. For t >T0,
N
tt
N
tt YYYY 111
1
1t1 . Here we simply need to
estimate Y1t
N
since Y1t
1
is observable. Assume that Y1t
N
may be given by the factor model (Abadie et al., 2010;
Giovanni, 2019):
itititt
N
Y t1 (1)
In Eq. (1), δt is an unknown common factor with constant factor loadings across cities, is a (r×1)vector of
observable covariates, which is unaffected by the intervention of interest. Regarding the parameters of θt , it is a (
1×r)unknown vector λt is a (1×M)vector of unobservable common factors, and μi a(M×1)vector of unknown
factor loadings. The error terms ɛit represent the unobservable short-term shocks at the prefecture-level with zero
mean. To derive the value of Y1t
N
, the proposed SCM model is to assign weights, which is a (J×1)vector, W=(
w2,…,wJ+1)',to each city with wj≥0 and
1
1
2
J
j
jw
.The weights are selected such that the synthetic city most
closely resembles the actual treated one before intervention. Each specific value of the vector W denotes a weighted
average of control cities. Thus, the value of the outcome variable for each synthetic control is
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
J
j
jtjj
J
j
jtj
J
j
jttjt
J
j
j wwZwYw
.
Assume that there exists (w2
*
…,wJ+1
*
)such that
1
1
2
*
1
1
2
*
122
1
2
*
111
1
2
*
,,,, 00
ZZwYYwYYwYYw j
J
j
jTjT
J
j
jj
J
j
jj
J
j
j
(2)
(Abadie et al., 2010) prove that if
t
T
t
t
0
1
'
is full rank, then
)()()( 1
1
2
*
1
'1
1
'
1
1
2
*
1
2
*
1
00
tjt
J
j
jsjssn
T
n
n
T
s
t
J
j
jjt
J
j
j
N
t wwYwY
(3)
Moreover, under standard conditions, that is, the number of pre-intervention periods is larger than that of the
post-intervention periods. Hence, the mean of the right-hand side of Eq. (3) asymptotically approaches to 0 as long
as T0 is greater than (T- T0). This implies that the estimator of t1 can be derived by using
jt
J
j
jtt YwY
1
2
*
11
ˆ
for t∈{ T0+1,…,T } (4)
In Eq. (4), it is crucial to find out the vector W* in order to compute t1
ˆ . Let X1 be a (k×1) vector of pre-
intervention spillover effect predictors of the treated city. Let X0 be a (k×J)matrix that includes the values of the
same variables for the J possible control cities. Notice that X1 and X0 may likely contain pre-treatment observations
of the target variable. Let V, which may also be data-driven, be a diagonal matrix with positive definite elements
revealing the relative magnitude of the dissimilar one-effect predictors. By doing so, the matrix V can minimize the
root of mean squared prediction error of the outcome variable. The weights vector W* is selected to minimize the
objective function below:
)()'( 010101 WXXVWXXVWXX
This formula is used to compute the distance between X1 and X0W by construction. The optimal weights are
those making the real outcome variable trajectory for the treated city before intervention best reproduced by the
resulting synthetic control city (Abadie et al., 2010; Giovanni, 2019; Hsiao and Wan, 2014; Peter, 2016).
Regarding the difference-in-differences, Eq. (1) generalizes the conventional difference-in-differences model
which is mostly employed in empirical studies in program or policy evaluations. Actually, the traditional difference-
in-differences model may be derived should one restrict that λt in the first Equation keep constant for all t (Abadie
et al., 2010). However, in case there exists no synthetic control unit for the treated, one can substitute difference-in-
differences for SCM. In our case, for simplicity, we construct the model below:
tiiit XTimeDTimeDY 12110 (5)
In Eq. (5), Y is the outcome variable; D is the dummy variable, taken the value 1 for treated city and 0
otherwise. Time represents the time dummy variable, taking the value 0 before treatment and 1 after the intervention.
The parameter represents the spillover effect resulting from the previous program, ƞi and θt denotes the respective
5. Business, Management and Economics Research
131
time fixed effects and individual fixed effects, X denotes the set of urban road mileage and other covariates, and ɛ
denotes the error term.
3. Results
Table 1 reports the predictor balance, in which it compares the pretreatment features of the actual Qingdao with
that of the synthetic Qingdao, as well as with the population-weighted average of the cities in donor pool. As shown
in Table 1, the averages of the cities that do not have the One Bridge One Tunnel Program in 2011-2017 does not
seem to provide a suitable control group for Qingdao. Particularly, in the pre-treatment period, all the predictors
were lower in the average of the 16 control cities than in Qingdao. As previously illustrated, we select V from all
non-negative and diagonal matrices such that we minimize the mean square prediction error of highway mileage in
Qingdao before the opening of One Bridge One Tunnel. The resulting value of the diagonal element of V relative to
the log of highway mileage is pretty small, which implies that, given the other variables in Table 1, log highway
mileage does not have essential power to forecast the industry relative employment rate in Qingdao prior to the
operation of the One Bridge One Tunnel program. This illustrates the gap between Qingdao and its synthetic unit in
terms of log highway mileage predictor.
Table-1. Predictor Balance indexed by industry relative employment rate
Variables Real Unit Synthetic Unit Average of 16 Controlled Cities
ln(highway mileage) 9.48 9.43 9.08
ln(GDP per capita) 10.77 10.59 10.29
Percentage of finance in GDP 0.08 0.07 0.08
ln(population density) 6.60 6.29 6.45
ln(deposits balance) 17.18 16.55 15.03
ln (hospital beds) 10.29 10.05 9.54
ln (internet users) 4.87 4.03 3.28
relative employment rate 2005 2.58 1.69 1.03
relative employment rate 2008 2.36 1.66 1.03
relative employment rate 2010 2.17 1.63 1.01
Due to the lack of synthetic Qingdao in our data that can reproduce the relative industrial output for real
Qingdao prior to 2011, we thus adopt difference-in-differences method as an alternative to estimate the program
effects of One Bridge One Tunnel. Table 2 reports the traditional difference-in-differences estimation for relative
industry output of Qingdao. In addition, we plot the trend of the industry relative output and replace it with its
employment rate to further our evaluation.
Table-2. Difference-in-Differences results (2005-2017) for industry relative output of Qingdao
(1) (2) (3)
ATT 10.899***
(0.293)
0.307**
(0.113)
0.609***
(0.165)
Covariates No Yes Yes
Constant 1.307***
(0.243)
-36.257***
(4.975)
-5.367***
(1.935)
Observations 52 48 203
Adjusted R2
0.220 0.954 0.632
***, **, and * denote significance at the 1, 5 and 10 per cent level respectively. The value in parenthesis represents the robust
standard errors
In Table 2, the difference-in-differences estimate (ATT) is given by the coefficient of the interaction between a
dummy for the treated city (treated), that is, an individual fixed effect equal to 1 for Qingdao in all time periods, and
a time fixed effect for the post-treatment periods (t) equal to 1 simply from 2011 onward. As mentioned before, even
though this difference-in-differences estimation is probably biased due to a violation of its parallel trend assumption
(Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003), it is a complement to the loss of a synthetic counterpart of Qingdao such that we
can access the spillover effect of the urban road infrastructure program more comprehensively. Column (1) and (2)
both take the same 3 cities (Jinan, Yantai and Taian) as control group, only that the former does not control the
covariate variables including the highway mileage while the latter controls the same covariates. Regarding column
(3), we use the rest 16 cities except Qingdao as donor pool and control the same covariates as that of column (2)
simultaneously. We find out that all the 3 cases provide plausible signs and magnitudes. In particular, the positive
signs of parameter of the interaction term indicate that the One Bridge One Tunnel Program spurs the local industrial
economy of Qingdao. Moreover, there probably has a significant spillover effect associated with the opening of the
road program in the adjacent cities within Shandong province.
By running the corresponding code using Stata, we obtain Figure-3, in which the vertical dotted line represents
the opening time of 2011, the solid curve represents the real Qingdao, and the dotted curve represents the synthetic
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Qingdao. Figure-3 indicates the impacts of the One Bridge One Tunnel program associated with the operation of the
program on June 30 of 2011:
Figure-3. Impacts of the One Bridge One Tunnel project on the treated and synthetic city
As Figure-3 suggests, overall, Qingdao’s industry relative output is on its noticeable downward trend (Figure-
3a). So it is with Qingdao’s industry relative employment rate (Figure-3b). There are two possible reasons to shed
light on the common trend. Firstly, it is because of the impact of the outbreak of global financial crisis in 2007 which
also affects Chinese economy, as such a V shape appeared in period 2007-2009. Under this circumstance, the One
Bridge One Tunnel Program started construction so as to stimulate the local economy. Secondly, after the opening of
the One Bridge One Tunnel in 2011, the economic gap between the south and the north within China mainland
began to diverge noticeably. In this context, Shandong lags far behind other Chinese provinces, though Qingdao
places first in GDP among the cities within Shandong province, still it is smaller than that of other counterparts in
terms of economic growth rate. Even so, this is not to say that the urban road traffic program has no effect in
boosting urban industry economy, just that the effect is less sizable when compared to the effect before the regional
economic gap.
With regard to industry relative employment rate after 2011, the line of real Qingdao sits on the top of the
synthetic Qingdao with the peak appearing in 2012, while the line for synthetic Qingdao mostly levels off. The
implications for this are twofold: first, the discrepancy between the two lines suggests a positive program effect of
the One Bridge One Tunnel on industry relative employment rate. Besides, Figure-3 suggests that One Bridge One
Tunnel Program has a spillover effect on industry relative employment rate across cities in Shandong, and this effect
appears remarkably around 2016 as the gap between the two lines gets smaller simultaneously. The magnitude of the
estimated impact is substantial, it is the positive externality associated with the project.
The SCM provides an ordinary fit for industry relative employment rate in Qingdao prior to the operation of the
One Bridge One Tunnel Program. The pretreatment root of mean squared prediction error (RMSPE) in Qingdao, that
is, the average of the root of the squared discrepancy between industry relative employment rate in Qingdao and in
its synthetic counterpart over the period 2005-2010, is about 0.74, revealing that the SCM can provide a fair fit for
industry relative employment rate before 2011 for most cities in the donor pool. However, the gap between Qingdao
and synthetic Qingdao becomes smaller after 2011, which means the spillover effect grows larger due to the opening
of the program. Notice that, as long as no evidence that might bring a negative impact on urban economic
development is found, even if the One Bridge One Tunnel Program effect is less significant, still it should be
considered as having a causal effect (King and Zeng, 2006).
4. Discussion
To access the significance of our estimates, we come up with the central question whether our results could be
driven by accident. How often could we achieve results of this magnitude were we to select a city arbitrarily rather
than Qingdao? We employ placebo tests to answer this question. Akin to Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), we
conduct the placebo tests by applying the SCM to cities without the One Bridge One Tunnel Program during the
sample periods. Only if the placebo studies reveal that the estimated discrepancy for Qingdao is large relative to that
of the city which does not build the aforementioned program, can we hold that our analysis provide significant
evidence of a positive spillover effect associated with the One Bridge One Tunnel Program in treated city. According
to Liu and Zeng (2018), we simply conduct the placebo tests for city that has a smaller goodness-to-fit prior to the
treatment. Therefore, we just do the robust check for industry relative industry employment rate of Qingdao. Figure-
4 shows the outcome of the placebo test, in which the vertical dotted line denotes the opening time of 2011, the solid
line denotes the real Qingdao, and the grey lines denote the 16 cities whose RMSPE are smaller than that of
Qingdao.
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Figure-4. Placebo test: Qingdao and 16 control cities
Figure-4 plots the results for the placebo test. We remain all the 16 cites in control group since no city has a pre-
treatment RMSPE higher than that of Qingdao. The superimposed solid line marks the estimated gap for Qingdao.
The grey lines mark the gap associated with each of the 16 runs of the test. That is, the grey lines indicate the
difference in industry relative employment rate between each city in the donor pool and its corresponding synthetic
counterpart. As is shown in Figure-4, the estimated gap for Qingdao over the period 2011-2017 is not that large
compared with the distribution of the gaps for the cities in the donor pool. Evaluated by the distribution of the gaps
for the 16 control cities in Figure-4, the gap for Qingdao appears relatively large. Because this figure contains 16
control units, given arbitrary permutation of the intervention in our data, the probability of estimating a gap of the
magnitude of Qingdao would be 1/17, or 5.88 per cent, a test level commonly used in traditional tests of statistical
significance.
Conversely, however, Figure-4 indicates that the spillover effect becomes large except for 2012, which is likely
because the road infrastructure program investment has a time lag to showcase its corresponding positive investment
multiplier effect. In particular, the spillover is remarkable in the order of 2015 where the two lines converge.
Therefore, placebo tests indicate that the program has a statistically significant spillover effect on the industry
relative employment rate for at least 10 cities including Qingdao in terms of their respective pre-treatment RMSPE,
but this does not hold for the rest of the cities. Hence, if one city were to assign to the intervention in the data
arbitrarily, the probability of achieving a spillover effect as large as Qingdao’s is around 5.88 per cent.
5. Conclusion
By using the SCM and difference-in-differences if conditions fail to hold for SCM, we estimated the One Bridge
One Tunnel Program’s direct effects as well as its indirect effect in China, that is, the resulting spillover effect
induced by the urban road transportation program. Results show that it does have a causal effect between the urban
road program and regional industry economy. Particularly, the One Bridge One Tunnel Program has a spillover
effect on industry relative employment rate across cities in Shandong, and this effect increases over time. Our
conclusion is consistent with most of the similar research (Yu et al., 2013; Zhang, 2013). Further placebo tests
indicate that the program has the probability of achieving a spatial spillover effect as large as that of Qingdao is
approximately 5.88 per cent.
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