Despite the high cost of model development, and their short shelf life, little review of their performance has been done in India. The presentation includes the basic introduction of models with their application & pros & cons in Indian scenario.

1. REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA YOUGAL TAK IP 2108 GUIDE: PROF. TALAT MUNSHI DISSERTATION 2009-10

2. METHODOLOGY Research problem/ question/ aim and objectives Role of transport models, its evolution, and their development History and evolution/ characteristics/ classification of models Introduction Understanding the basic role of transport system, travel demand and need to models them. Characteristics of transport demand/ supply Characteristics of transport problem Transport demand supply equilibrium Review Phase Transport demand supply gap- equilibrium. Classic transport model Characteristics of various models Transport models- in practice Behavioural transport model. Landuse transport interactions. (LUTI) Identification of various indicators to determine suitability in any context. Determining suitability Identification of models used in India and determining suitability Expert opinion- Conversation with experts from different transportation organization and capturing their opinion about model being used. Primary Survey Data collection & analysis Analysis Literature review of various documents (reports and research papers) on the same. Secondary Data model identification in Indian context role of transport model being used in India and its suitability in Indian context. Checking suitability Future developments Where are we and where are we going??? Conclusion APPLICABILITY OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODELS IN INDIA A CRITIQUE DISSERTATION 2008-09 IS THE TRANSPORT MODEL BEING USED IN INDIA IS SUITABLE IN INDIAN CONTEXT OR NOT???

3. TRANSPORT MODEL REVIEW PHASE-I + MODEL TRANSPORT movement of people and goods between relatively distant geographical locations, with any ‘activity’ to perform, or for any purpose and any duration. can be defined as a Simplified representation of a part of the real world. REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

4. TRANSPORT SYSTEM REVIEW PHASE-I ACTIVITY SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED OVER THE REGION With some activity to perform for any given purpose, by some mode, it give birth to COMPLEX TRANSPORT SYSTEM. Working trip school trip Recreational trip social trip MODES MODE IS ALWAYS NEEDED TO PERFORM ANY ACTIVITY Air Rail cable Road water REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

6. Design and performance- provides opportunities for mobility

7. Good transport system- increase mobility and give rise to economic activities.

8. also give rise to the DEMAND FOR TRANSPORT.REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

10. purpose, and to

11. perform some activity.

13. use this information to predict roadway traffic volumes and impacts such as congestion and pollution emissionsREVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

15. In developing nations like India, transport studies are based on models borrowed from Anglo‐ American context,

16. rate of urbanisation & development is contextual and very different in developing world.

17. Thus suitability of modelling approach is also likely to be different.

18. despite the high cost of model development, and their short shelf life, little review of their performance has been done in India. REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

20. To critically review and asses methods that has been used

21. To determine the steps that can improve the method used...If necessaryREVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

23. Results of HEAVY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT in developments.

24. begins with the DATA COLLECTION on current traffic.

25. Traffic data together with data on population, employment, trip rates, travel costs, etc., is used to develop a TRAFFIC DEMAND MODEL.

26. Advances in COMPUTING, results in very technical and sophisticated methodsREVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

27. HISTORY AND EVOLUTION REVIEW PHASE-I 1990s developments in response to environmental pollution, and policy shifts towards travel demand management. 1980s– 1990s 1970 – 1980s developments in response to criticisms of static, trip-based analysis. developments in response to criticisms of aggregate methods. 1950s– 1960s developments in response to huge investment in highway construction and advances in computing. (source: bureau of transport policy, Australia) REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

29. Be capable of explaining long-term changes in land use patterns.

30. Permit close interaction between land use and transport.

31. Be able to explain competition between various transport modes.

32. for better results and output, one should have to be aware of positive and negatives of the model.

33. May be not all models are able to meet all these demand, but some models may fulfill the nearest objectives. (source: D. Ortuzar, modelling transport) REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

35. both in industrialized and developing countries.

36. Increase in traffic and transport demand.

37. Congestion, delays , accidents and environment problems. ECONOMIC GROWTH In modes and regions generated levels of demand CAPACITY OF TRANSPORT resulted in Exceeding in DEMAND SIDE SUPPLY SIDE LONG PERIODS OF UNDER-INVESTMENT FRAGILE SUPPLY SYSTEMS (break down under above average conditions) REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

40. Possible to predict travel behaviour based on AVERAGED ZONAL DATA.

41. Relationships between household characteristics and travel behaviour remain steady over long periods of time.

43. Travel demand is estimated using the sequential four-step process.

44. The system is characterised as being closed as well as unidirectional.

45. does not allow any feedback from travel costs into the trip generation process.REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

48. Two methods been used for modelling generation

49. GROWTH METHOD

52. there are no simple ways to predict them.

53. problems with these methods in estimation of the growth method F.

55. Eg.- extension of underground line to a location which had no service previously would not generate more trips between that zone and the rest.

56. neglects all the INTERNAL‐ TO‐ INTERNAL TRIPS.

57. NON MOTORIZED TRIPS are not included in calculating the overall trip generation.REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

59. INPUT

60. set of zonal trip productions and attractions (obtain in TG).

61. travel time between zones- third variable.

63. Takes a old distribution pattern and updates this to new and actual distribution pattern.

64. old pattern is manipulated until the trip generations constraints are met.

67. Forecasting future trip patterns when important changes in network takes place.

68. Estimates trips for each cell, without directly using the observed trip pattern.REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

70. allocation or ‘distribution’ of trips between the various modes available.

71. The factors influencing mode choice- classifies into 3 groups

72. CHARACTERISTICS OF TRIP MAKER (family income, nos. of cars, density)

73. CHARACTERISTICS OF JOURNEY (trip distance, time of the day)

74. CHARACTERISTICS OF TRANSPORT FACILITY (riding time, excess time)

75. Mode choice models

76. AGGREGATED- if based on zonal data.

77. DISAGGREGATED - if based on household and/ or individual data.

79. split total travel demand for each zone by transport mode.

80. operates at the stage between trip distribution and route assignment,

81. splitting of intra- and inter-zonal trips among available modes. REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

83. CONGESTED SITUATION- traffic spread to the alternative routes

84. To equalize the travel time or costs for using these routes.

85. Basic inputs-

86. peak hour matrix in congested areas

88. that all drivers consider the same attributes for route choice

90. congestion and queues type of road (motor way, secondary road)

93. GENERATES ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS- large number of second- best routes between each O-D pair

94. Several methods

95. SIMULATION BASED METHODS

97. Several methods

98. WARDROP’S EQUILIBRIUM.

99. HARD AND SOFT SPEED CHANGE METHODS.REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

101. Reduce in travel time

102. Reduce in distanceWhich may be due to No attempt at understanding the bahaviour of the people Severe consequences in Forecasting future travel demand To match the figure With observed travel Demand data These is used Calibration of No past data Base year data Base year data as We forecast something for which data is scare Tends to overlook qualitative factors such as travel comfort. ignores patterns in behaviour and uncertainty in behaviour. REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

104. By McFadden (1973) and Ben‐Akiva (1973)

105. Based on revealed and stated preferences.

106. Differ from classic models in three important ways:

107. Analysis is carried out at a DECISION‐MAKING LEVEL (person or household).

108. Derived from the behaviour of an INDIVIDUAL.

109. Completely based on DISAGGREGATED MODELLING approaches.PEOPLE DO NOT MOVE TO TRAVEL ZONES DO NOT MOVE BEAHVIOURAL/ ACTIVITY BASED APPROACH AGGREGATE BASED APPROACH DISAGGREGATE BASED APPROACH THEY MOVE TO PERFROM SOME ACTIVITY PEOPLE DO REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

111. whether or not this leads to IMPROVED FORECASTING MODELS.

112. Primarily the focus of ACADEMIC AND RESEARCHERS.

113. criticised on number of factors- related to the process and outcome.

114. Behaviour is being modelled, which may be sometime NOT A TRUE AND EXHAUSTIVE STATEMENT of the relevant individual.

116. Developed due to huge infrastructure investment

117. estimated using GROUP OF OBSERVATIONS.

118. one observation is sometimes represent HUNDRED OF INDIVIDUALS.

119. Always criticised for their ACCURACY.

121. Developed due to criticism of classic models.

122. estimated using INDIVIDUAL BEAHVIOUR.

123. Based on theories of individual beahviour.

124. LESS CHANCES OF ERRORS.

125. Require LARGE AMOUNT OF DATA.

126. EXPENSIVE to use.REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

128. development represents INCREASING CONNECTIONS between LUT.

129. 'LAND‐USE TRANSPORT FEEDBACK CYCLE‘- the concept

130. distribution of land uses, determines the locations of human activities

131. distribution of human activities requires transport system to overcome the distance

132. distribution of infrastructure in transport system creates opportunities for spatial interactions.

133. Main models to model LUTI- THE LOWRY MODEL (1964)

134. AIM- to allocate population to zones, depending on the place of work.

135. Basic concept- urban economy may be divided into two sectors:

136. a basic sector which produces goods for consumption outside a defined urban area

137. a non‐basic or service sector whose outputs are consumed within the city.

138. Lowry’s framework has been extended and is simplified by WILSON (1970)

140. LUTI incorporate the essential processes of spatial development, includes all types of land use

141. current LUTI models do not apply state‐of‐ the‐ art activity based modelling techniques but the traditional four‐step travel demand model.

142. need to move towards more behaviourally consistent and true dynamic modelling approachesREVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

143. OVERALL CONCLUSION REVIEW PHASE-III BEHAVIOURAL TRAVEL DAMAND MODEL Primarily the focus of Academics & researchers Works purely on disaggregate approach Analysis is carried out at Decision level (individual) Provide better result Then classic model due To its approach. Expensive to use, as need Much more detail data. Demand high- skills LANDUSE TRASNPORT INTERACTIONS (LUTI) Continuous development Since their evolution Incorporates the most Essential process of Spatial development. Model the relation Between landuse and Transport system. Mainly based on the human theories. (both Landuse & transport) Tends to provide the more accurate & real World results CLASSIC TRANSPORT MODEL Developed in application Environment. Works purely on Aggregate approach sequential process so Overall weak framework Sequential but when Jointly analysed, not able To provide good result Always criticised for its Accuracy in estimations. REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

145. might be (and are) DIFFERENT from other parts of the world

146. suitability depends upon various factors- A & D, TS & CS data, nature of models

147. ACCURACY OF THE ESTIMATES- dependent on the suitability of model.

148. initial models developed in pure aggregate manner-

149. AGGREGATED society and culture- DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (western and European)

150. May not be suitable for DISAGGREGATED society and culture of DEVELOPING SOCIETY. REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

151. DETERMINING SUITABILITY ANALYSIS PHASE- I adoption of a particular perspective question of how many options need to be considered real bottleneck in data processing code, input the data, run the programs & interprets the output. greater the level of detail, the more difficult the task best scheme may be quite obvious, thus requiring less accurate modelling. Suitability of any transport model, will going to remain the most important factor always recommended that one should follow only that modelling approaches, which is best suited to the context money, data, computer etc. Time is most crucial one. Availability of past data Time series/ cross sectional Framework should be like That able to use the available data Data may be available, but the model should Able to incorporate data. Heavy investment in infrastructure. landuse & transport plan, should compliment each other. data collection, surveys & detailed analysis would then become easier. REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

153. very naïve method to calculate the travel demand.

154. only occupational and educational trips, remain constant for the longer time.

155. Data availability- major problem

157. Issues in zoning & aggregation

158. Zones in India contain more then 1000- 1500 HH,

159. Aggregation based on that- serious errors- carried throughout the process

160. Unlike in western, where zoning is done at enumeration block level.

161. They are also able to maintain the data for the same.

162. In very much favour of LUTI.REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

164. Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (AMC)

165. Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority (AUDA) ,

166. Gandhi Nagar Urban Development Authority (GUDA)

167. Total area- 1351 sq km.

168. Model used- conventional four step aggregate model

169. Study area population- 5,46,000 (2001)

170. Total traffic area zones (TAZ)- 197 186 internal/ 11 external

171. Average zone population- 2750approx.

172. Average Household per zone- 550 (HH size- 5)REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

173. DETERMINING SUITABILITY- INDAIN CONTEXT ANALYSIS PHASE- II AGGREGATE/ DISAGGREGATE MODELLING APPROACHES Indian context- Analysis based on aggregate zonal data Aggregated data has got some serious errors One observed beahviour, sometimes is the face of some 100 of people. Western context- analysis based upon enumeration block level. Acc. To some expert: no such thing as a definitive approach appropriate to all situations. TIME SERIES TRAVEL DATA Main goal of Model- to predict future estimations in travel demand, For that strong database on past travel behaviour, (time series data) is needed. In India- generally depends on cross- sectional data Indian scenario- very poor system No tradition to maintain the past travel data. No governing authority to maintain the database. Western context- central governing authority to maintain that data (free access to all) ZONAL BASED ANALYSIS Strong database in developed countries Able to collect and store data at enumeration block level Not more then 100-150 HH in each block TAZs in India formed out from election ward. More then 500 HH in each zone. Expensive & huge task to carry out travel survey. Required skilled manpower Aggregation is done at larger level Required innovations to minimize the errors. HETROGENEOUS SOCIETY Western context- homogeneous in nature Homogeneous society and culture. So aggregated approaches can be applied. in India-more disaggregated and heterogeneous societies & culture. More behavioural changes, in every household. Problem in applying the aggregate models ZONAL LEVEL DATA ACCURACY Conventional model calculate trip length from trip zonal data, from centroid of one zone to the other zone. average distance between zone centroids has been calculated. possible that size of zones may not be same chance of errors increase significantly, as the zones are too large to have same entity, or the average distance can’t be the same for the entire trip generated from the zones. For heterogeneity and disaggregated Indian society, aggregation at any level is not going to give the accurate result for long term predictions. REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

174. CONCLUSION CURRENT DATA NEED suitability in India are pointing towards many things related to the past and present database collection of good and reliable data. need to be better sharing of data & should be accessible by all, like in western and European countries NOMIS in European RITA in western context. In census also, information on travel behaviour is collected but it is not shared. strong need emerging for developing a central data base system, Present initiatives by central government – on creating National urban information system (NUIS) can help better in catering the huge travel demand, generated by the complex transport system. WHERE ARE WE AND WHERE ARE WE GOING??? discussion with the experts, suggests, that the conventional four‐ step aggregate model alone is NOT A GOOD CHOICE TO MODEL the complex travel demand. As for the disaggregated Indian society and culture, the approach used is very much AGGREGATED AND INSENSITIVE. cannot be used for LONG TERM PROJECTIONS INSENSITIVE to changes in any LAND USE PATTERN OR TRANSPORT PRICING, BEHAVIOURAL MODELS/ LUTI- potential as a full or partial alternative to the conventional four step model FUTURE OF TRANSPORT MODEL IN INDIA has to be a combination of four stage and behavioural models supported by accurate data on individual and activities. REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

175. THANK YOU… any questions?? REVIEW OF URBAN TRANSPORT MODELS AND THEIR SUITABILITY IN INDIA DISSERTATION 2009-10

176. FUTURISTIC APPROACH REVIEW PHASE APPLICABILITY OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODELS IN INDIA A CRITIQUE DISSERTATION 2008-09

178. Aging population, tends to reduce per capita vehicle travel.

179. Rising fuel prices.

180. Increasing urbanization.

181. changing consumer housing preferences toward urban neighbourhoods.

182. Increasing urban traffic congestion.

183. rising costs of expanding urban highways.

184. Increasing public health and environmental concerns.

185. Increased emphasis on service quality.APPLICABILITY OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODELS IN INDIA A CRITIQUE DISSERTATION 2008-09

187. Behavioural travel demand models

188. Landuse transport interactions models

189. each type of model has its particular strengths and weaknesses.APPLICABILITY OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODELS IN INDIA A CRITIQUE DISSERTATION 2008-09