Guest presentation by Tony Plumbe. www.its.leeds.ac.uk/courses/masters/itslectureseries

1. Transfer of Transport Planning
Policies from Developed to
Developing Nations
Tony Plumbe
ITS Seminar
4 March 2015
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2. Introduction
Caveats: Much diversity within both
developed and developing nations
Making gross and maybe ill-founded
generalisations
Title contains a patronising bias: developed
to developing nations
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3. Introduction
Will concentrate on 4 areas:
Policy transfer generically
 Urban transport planning
and policies
Economic appraisal policies
Rural transport policies
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4. Policy Transfer Generically
What is meant by policy transfer?
Dolowitz & Marsh (1996)
“a process in which knowledge about
policies, administrative arrangements
and institutions in one time and/or
place is used in the development of
policies, administrative arrangements
and institutions in another time and/or
place”
(Political Studies, 44 (2), 343-357)

5. Policy Transfer Generically: Dolowitz & Marsh Framework
1. Why engage in policy transfer?
Learn from others and leap ahead ;
risk aversion
Responding to policy ‘promoters’
Uncertainty re goals, political support
or organisational requirements
Influence exerted by national and
transnational agencies
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6. Policy Transfer Generically: Dolowitz & Marsh Framework
2. Who is involved in the
policy transfer process?
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7. Policy Transfer Generically: Dolowitz & Marsh Framework
2. Who is involved in the policy transfer
process?
Bureaucrats and civil servants
Politicians and political parties
Pressure groups
Policy entrepreneurs
Experts and consultants
Think Tanks
Educational institutions
Private firms
Transnational corporations
Federal/central government and multilateral
institutions

8. Policy Transfer Generically: Dolowitz & Marsh Framework
3. What is transferred?
Goals )
Ideologies ) Relatively simple to transfer
Ideas )
Attitudes )
Content
Instruments )
Programs ) Relatively difficult to transfer
Institutions )
Negative lessons

9. Policy Transfer Generically: Dolowitz & Marsh Framework
4. What are the different degrees of
transfer?
Gradations :-
Copying
Emulation
Combination/hybridisation/
synthesis
Inspiration

10. Policy Transfer Generically: Dolowitz & Marsh Framework
5. What facilitates or restricts the policy
transfer process?
Resources available: personnel,
time, finance
‘Search areas’ chosen
Limited information available
Extent of past commitments in
policy environment
Confidence & security in posts
of individual decision-makers

11. Policy Transfer Generically: Dolowitz & Marsh Framework
6. How successful is the policy that was
transferred?
How is a policy transfer demonstrated?
Less well articulated:
At pre-decision stage: did policy learning
influence debate?
At decision-making stage: did policy transfer
influence option selection, design &/or
appraisal?
At post-decision stage: did policy transfer
influence operational efficiency, policy
outcomes & future learning processes? 11

12. Policy Transfer Generically: Dolowitz & Marsh Framework
7. From where are lessons drawn?
Local : neighbouring area or
within nation
National
International
Mediated by language, culture,
constitutional system, geographical
proximity & economic structure 12

13. Urban Transport Planning & Policies
Dimitriou: Urban Transport Planning Process
Involves:
1. Observing current travel behaviour
2. Adopting hypotheses re the relationships
between land use & movement
3. Testing these hypotheses as a basis for
making estimates of future travel
demand
4. Ultimately recommending additional
transport capacity 13

14. Urban Transport Planning & Policies
14
Transport
Inventories
Origin &
Destination
Surveys
Planning
Studies
Traffic
Forecasts
Planning
Forecasts
Network
Planning
Revised
Transport
Networks
Network
Evaluation
Implementation
Programme
Construction &
Implementation
Revise
Planning
Forecasts

15. Urban Transport Planning & Policies
Travel Demand Modelling
 Trip generation
 Trip distribution
 Modal split
 Traffic assignment
Usually assumes essentially constant
travel behaviour, transport technology,
land use, & land use/ traffic interaction

16. Urban Transport Planning & Policies
Urban Transport Planning Process
Embodies certain attractive concepts
 Extensive dependence upon simulation
and quantification
 Gives sense of comprehensiveness
 Formality of approach based on principles
of systems thinking
 Adopts a set of procedures akin to a
scientific approach to problem solving
 Widely adopted so seen to be respectable
& reliable

17. Urban Transport Planning & Policies: Transferability to
Developing Nations?
1. Land use is zoned homogeneously
2. Belief urban transport problem is that of
overcoming motorised traffic congestion
3a. Informal non-motorised and paratransit
public transport do not warrant explicit
consideration
3b. Propensity to neglect the pedestrian &
motorcycle
4. Assumes that only slow gradual changes
occur in variable affecting travel demand
- dealing with huge & rapidly changing
cities

18. City Populations millions c2013
Jakarta 26.0 Tokyo 37.1
Seoul 22.5 New York 20.5
Delhi 22.2 Osaka 17.0
Shanghai 20.9 Los Angeles 14.9
Manila 20.8 Moscow 15.5
Karachi 20.7 Paris 10.8
Sao Paulo 20.2 Nagoya 10.0
Mexico City 19.5 London 8.6
Cairo 17.8 Populations in recognised metro area of city
Beijing 17.7 & immediate suburbs outside the established
Mumbai 16.9 boundary of the city
Source: WorldAtlas.com/citypops.htm
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19. City Population Growth Rates
Source: The Context of Urban Development in Sub-Saharan Africa.
https//www.citiesalliance.org/sites/citiesalliance.org/files

20. Urban Transport Planning & Policies: Transferability to
Developing Nations?
5. Predict and provide approach – more of the
same
6. Drivers of transport demand not always the
same in developing as developed nations
7. Transport’s influence on & serving development
objectives is often different
- economic growth
- equity & affordability
- participatory involvement
- privatisation, deregulation, promotion of
private sector, regulatory bodies
8. Data availability and quality

21. Urban Transport Planning & Policies: Transferability to
Developing Nations?
9. Rely on expensive and extensive
modelling
10. Organisation of cities
11. Decision-making

22. Economic Appraisal Policies
Traditionally been extensive applied given
tight resource constraints and at behest
of international development agencies
Traditional forms: NPV, NPV/K, IRR & CBR
Note interest in absolute returns (NPV), & in
efficiency of use of capital (IRR)
But not GVA
Performed at financial and economic prices
(In anglophone countries at least; francophone countries
sometime use the effects method)
Historically seen further development into use of
distributional weightings, and shadow pricing

23. Economic Appraisal Policies
Complex investment appraisal, maintenance strategy, &
even emissions models been developed: HDM4
(Highway Development & Management Model)
Like UK DMRB + TUBA + a Road Deterioration Model
rolled into one
Cost Effectiveness Analysis
Time Values: culturally bound. Under- and unemployed
resources. Concept will transfer but not values
Valuation of accident costs (value of life): 1.5 – 2.5% of GDP p.a.
lost to road accidents. Again concept will transfer but not
values. Relationship to improving a road may be perverse
Elasticities: scarce in developing nations

24. Economic Appraisal Policies
Pricing policies and cost recovery
- full cost recovery & elimination of
subsidies pushed by IMF & World Bank
- fuel subsidies
Discriminant pricing policies: rail & air transfer
of principles okay
Road pricing policies
Economic appraisal policies apply equally to (ex-post)
evaluation which is generally performed better
with valid ‘with’ vs ‘without’ comparisons
rather than ‘after’ vs ‘before’

25. Rural Transport Policies
Much discordance between developed and
developing nations so scope for transfer is
limited
Rural Transport policies in developed nations
concentrate on:
 Accessibility
 Higher costs of motorised rural transport
 Social exclusion and mobility of the elderly
 Operation of community transport services
or infrequent rural buses
 Quality of internet services as substitute
for rural mobility

26. Rural Transport Policies
Some developed nation rural transport policies resonate
in developing countries – accessibility, affordability
& multi-purpose vehicles
But much of focus of rural transport policies in
developing nations is very different:
 Interplay of transport with economic activity
especially agriculture but also other rural economic
enterprise
 Policies re rural non-motorised transport
prominent: walking, cycling, trails, pedestrian
stream/river crossings (intermediate and labour
intensive technologies)
 Adoption of participatory engagement of local
communities for effective planning and
implementation
 The advent of the mobile (cell) phone

27. Opportunities for Transport Policy Transfers
from Developing to Developed Nations
 Paratransit especially to rural areas
 Policies re the distribution of benefits
(Growth & equity)
 Understanding the links between
transport policies and economic
development
 Road Funds

28. Conclusions
Yes: Ideas
Instruments
Negative lessons
Some analytical techniques
Some attitudes
Be Wary: Institutions
Assumptions embodied in
computerised modelling or
approaches
Cultures & anything perceived as
‘foreign’
Decision-making processes