This document discusses how climate change affects marine ecosystems in a systems context. It notes that climate change influences predator diversity and abundance, organismal physiology, population dynamics, community structure, and ecosystem function. Considering these environmental drivers and biological responses together can provide insights into how climate change may impact marine food webs and productivity. The future directions section suggests more research is needed to understand how climate change and help forests.

1. Global Change, Species
Diversity, and the Future of
Marine Ecosystems
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4. We Rarely Think Beyond the Direct
Effects of Climate Change
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5. Climate Change in a Systems Context
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7. Global Change in a Systems Context
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8. Global Change in a Systems Context
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9. Global Change in a Systems Context
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10. Global Change in a Systems Context
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11. Global Change in a Systems Context
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12. Global Change in a Systems Context
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13. Does Community Structure Alter
Ecosystem Function?
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15. Does Diversity Alter
Ecosystem Function?
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20. High Density only Found With High Diversity
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22. Manipulation of Both Diversity and
Density
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27. Conceptual Model
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28. Describing our Experiment with
Structural Equation Modeling
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29. Describing our Experiment with
Structural Equation Modeling
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30. Describing our Experiment with
Structural Equation Modeling
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31. Predator Richness Indirectly
Affects Water Filtration
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32. Predator Richness Indirectly
Affects Water Filtration
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38. Predator Diversity and Control of
Water Filtration
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39. Global Change in a Systems Context
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40. Which Driver has a Stronger Impact on
Ecosystem Function?
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41. Meta-Analysis of Diversity
Manipulations
Database: Experiments
! 574 independent experiments
! 192 peer-reviewed papers
! 541 types of organisms (spp, morphs)
! 30 biomes
! 5 continents
• Effect of diversity = log(polyculture/monoculture)

42. Meta-Analysis of Diversity and
Environmental Manipulations
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43. What About the Environment?
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44. Nonlinear Effect of Diversity on
Productivity
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45. Drought Effects Comparable to
Mass Extinction
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46. Warming and CO2 Comparable to
Extinction from Habitat Loss
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47. Experiments Show Diversity Loss
Comparable to Climate Change
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48. Both the Environment and Community
Structure Drive Ecosystem Function
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49. Global Change in a Systems Context
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50. Will Environmental Change have
Cascading Consequences?
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51. '
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55. Climate Models Predict Increases in Storm
Intensity with Climate Change
pR(('1T'K'

56. California Storm Intensity
Increased over the Last 50 Years
1200
1-)A$#&8B&]TO&1"G$&M$-79A&
1000
800
600
400
200
5"%'S+"%.03.$'Z04)'N"O/)'
0
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
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57. J-#$8A&")6&0)6-#$8A&@$8A*&./&1"G$*&.)&C..6&
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59. J.$*&3$5I&O$B.G"5&+5A$#&C..6&1$2*^&
• 4 Reefs selected in
2008 with paired
40x40m areas
• Giant Kelp removed
in experimental plots
every January to
simulate disturbance

61. Effect of Kelp Removal on Richness
Change After Multiple Removals
Byrnes et al. 2011
Global Change Biology

62. Santa Barbara Coastal LTER
Sampling of Rocky Reefs
2000-2009

63. Sampling of Rocky Reefs
2000-2009
• 40x2m transects
• Winter largest wave
disturbance from CDIP
• Spring Kelp from LANDSAT
• Quadrat, swath, and point
counts for giant kelp & 250
other conspicuous algae,
fish, and invertebrates
• Feeding links derived from
peer reviewed literature,
CDFG reports, dissertations,
and expert knowledge

64. Food Webs Vary
Dramatically in Space

65. Food Webs Vary Dramatically
over Time
2001 2007

66. Quantifying Food Web Structure
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68. Measuring Wave Disturbance
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70. J-#$8A&")6&0)6-#$8A&@$8A*&./&1"G$*&.)&C..6&
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71. @$8A&./&1"G$*&.)&3$5I&0)6-#$8A_&2DA&
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72. ,-BD5"E.)*&A.&H#$6-8A&J-$#$)A&F5-B"A$&
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73. '"*$5-)$&C.#$*A& K)$&,A.#B& N")(&,A.#B*&

74. Climate Change May Simplify Kelp Forest
Food Webs
@)G-#.)B$)A"5&
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promote algal diversity &
food web complexity
H.ID5"E.)&&
J()"B-8*& 2. Ultimately, loss of
foundation species leads
to simplified food webs
F.BBD)-A(&
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75. Global Change in a Systems Context
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76. Global Change in a Systems Context
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77. Using the Fossil Record To
Understand Current Extinction Threat
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78. How Will Climate Change Alter Coastal
Ecosystems?
XXX=,O/&)$/%"*O+=4?'

79. How Will Climate Change Alter Coastal
Ecosystems?
^&

80. +&3$5I&O$B.G"5&O$*$"#89&]$A4.#L&
Laminaria
Agarum,
Laminaria, Alaria,
Alaria, Agarum, Saccharina,
Arthrothamnus, Laminaria
Costaria,
Cymathere, Agarum, Alaria,
Laminaria,
Dictyoneurum, Alaria, Eisenia, Ecklonia,
Eckloniopsis,
Egregia, Macrocystis, Ecklonia Kjemenniella,
Lessoniopsis, Eisenia, Laminaria, Undaria
Nereocystis, Agarum,
Pleurophycus, Costaria,
Pterygophora, Dictyoneurum,
Saccharina, Egregia,
Thallasiophyllum Saccharina,
Lessoniopsis,
Nereocystis, Lessonia,
Pelagophycus, Macrocystis, Laminaria
Pleurophycus, Eisenia
Postelsia, Laminaria,
Pterygophora Macrocystis,
Ecklonia Lessonia,
Macrocystis,
Ecklonia
Macrocystis

81. What are the Consequences of Food Web
Complexity?
Predator diversity Predator diversity
reduces herbivory increases herbivory
Byrnes et al. 2006, Finke and Denno 2004
Byrnes and Stachowicz 2009
Predator diversity Predator diversity
doesn t affect herbivory shortcuts herbivory
Finker and Snyder 2008 Bruno and O Connor 2005
(or, # of herbivores anyway)

82. A Probabilistic Approach to Food
Webs and Extinctions
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-^D' !O@<)+'$,'38).0)3'
w'$,'R+)4"*$+3'$,'R+)2'0' c)h'"h)+')Y#%.#$%'
P(BA | E ) = 1 " dhyper(0;Di , SA " Di , SA " E )
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!$*')"#%/'8+)2'0'
!
9%ISeef"##$%2(#)$*;-)/.e.I$)).A$2..L&

83. Climate Change, Food Web Complexity,
And Productivity: Salt Marshes

84. How Will Human Driven Shifts in Marine Food
Webs Alter Ocean Productivity and Stability?
V"+42'DJCK'

85. The Future of Open Science
• '(+$X4,O%40%/',$+'3.0)%.)'
• '6789::3.0,O%4=X$+48+)33=.$@'
• 'KJ'3.0)%#3*3'
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• '1P)+"/)'8+$;).*'20)&4'xDEHHI'
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• ZX07)+9'y;)<2+%)3'
• !(-15'Q8)%'5.0)%.)'>$+?0%/'
N+$O8'*$'.6"%/)'8O<&0360%/'

86. Acknowledgements
Mentors: Jay Stachowicz, Dan Reed, Bradley Cardinale
Collaborators: Kyle Edwards, Russ Schmidt, Sally Holbrook,
Kyle Cavanaugh
SBC LTER: Clint Nelson, Christine Donahue, Shannon Harrer,
Gabe Rodriguez, Matt Silbert, Jocelyn Christie, Countless SBC
LTER Divers
Funding: National Center for Ecological Analysis and
Synthesis, NSF LTER Program, Bodega Marine Lab, NSF
IGERT Program